Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 02-10-2020, 07:16 PM
Snowboarder Bo's Avatar
Snowboarder Bo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 29,310

Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - Breaking News


We've had a couple of threads in IMHO talking about this, but now that deaths have topped 1000 (and the daily toll topped 100 for the first time), I thought I'd start a thread where we can simply monitor the progress of this virus and the fight against it.

There are two main websites tracking the virus:

Coronavirus 2019-nCoV Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE - this site is excellent; by far my preferred of these two

https://thewuhanvirus.com - in addition to maps and numbers, this site does offer links to news stories about the virus.
  #2  
Old 02-11-2020, 07:43 AM
Lightnin''s Avatar
Lightnin' is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Edmonton, AB
Posts: 7,581
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo View Post
Coronavirus 2019-nCoV Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE - this site is excellent; by far my preferred of these two
It's really disturbing how much that website looks like a game of Pandemic.

I've got a cruise coming up in a few months, and I must admit I'm getting a bit nervous about it. Cruise ships are already bad enough about concentrating disease.
__________________
What's the good of Science if nobody gets hurt?
  #3  
Old 02-11-2020, 03:43 PM
bobot's Avatar
bobot is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Chicago-ish
Posts: 10,053
Data point: I don't have it. Yet.
  #4  
Old 02-11-2020, 04:02 PM
steatopygia's Avatar
steatopygia is offline
Experimental FOC Test Pilot
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: North Idaho mostly
Posts: 2,177
I like the idea of a central thread. Of course I just saw this after posting in one of the others.


Data point: I may have had it.
  #5  
Old 02-11-2020, 08:15 PM
Snowboarder Bo's Avatar
Snowboarder Bo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 29,310
45,115 confirmed infections
1,115 deaths
4,781 recovered
  #6  
Old 02-12-2020, 09:29 AM
Snowboarder Bo's Avatar
Snowboarder Bo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 29,310
The WHO has named the virus COVID-19; I've asked the mods to update the thread title.
Quote:
“We now have a name for the disease and it’s COVID-19,” World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters in Geneva.

Tedros said that “co” stands for “corona”, “vi” for “virus” and “d” for “disease”, while “19” was for the year, as the outbreak was first identified on December 31.

Tedros said the name had been chosen to avoid references to a specific geographical location, animal species or group of people in line with international recommendations for naming aimed at preventing stigmatisation.
The article explains:
Quote:
WHO had earlier given the virus the temporary name of “2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease” and China’s National Health Commission this week said it was temporarily calling it “novel coronavirus pneumonia” or NCP.
Hopefully China will adopt the COVID-19 moniker and we can at least be on the same page as to what we call it.
  #7  
Old 02-12-2020, 10:59 AM
Treppenwitz is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: UK
Posts: 1,497
As a sidebar post on treatments and vaccines:

This wiki page lists a number of vaccine developments underway.

Quote:
In January 2020, multiple organizations and institutions began work on creating vaccines for 2019-nCoV based on the published genome.
Testing of the novel (as yet unlicensed) antiviral Remdesivir is starting.

Quote:
U.S.-based biotech Gilead, known for its HIV and hepatitis C treatments, has struck a partnership with Beijing's China-Japan Friendship Hospital to test out an antiviral drug called remdesivir in actual humans in Wuhan, the apparent origin site of the coronavirus outbreak. (Gilead shares rose 5% in Monday trading.)

Atypical for drug production, this is an example of how private companies and government organizations can work together in the event of a crisis to speed things up. In emergency situations, drug companies are able to perform safety trials to prove that treatments won't actively harm people without the usual red tape that can make new therapies take years to get to market.

It appears that Chinese authorities believe the situation is serious enough in the country to warrant a hurry-up approach.
From the Remdesivir wiki page

Quote:
In late January 2020, remdesivir was administered to the first US patient to be confirmed to be infected by 2019-nCoV, in Snohomish County, Washington, for "compassionate use" after he progressed to pneumonia. While no broad conclusions were made based on the single treatment, the patient's condition improved dramatically the next day,[18] and he was eventually discharged.[19] Also in late January 2020, Chinese medical researchers stated to the media that in exploratory research considering a selection of 30 drug candidates, three of them, remdesivir, chloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir, seemed to have "fairly good inhibitory effects" on 2019-nCoV at the cellular level. Requests to start clinical testing were submitted,[20][21] and on February 6, 2020 a clinical trial of remdesivir began in China.[22]
j
  #8  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:41 PM
jerez is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 878
Earlier today, someone said a case had been confirmed nearby. Someone else showed up and reported a case that was even closer. I suggested looking at the headlines before panicking, so someone got out their phone, did a search and, sure enough, there were three or four more cases reported. At that point everyone started talking at the same time. When someone finally stopped for air, I convinced the group to check the source of those headlines and, better yet, to check the homepage of any reputable newspaper. A few tense minutes later, it was agreed that it was just a rumor. So, I'm posting here to confirm the existence of stupid rumors.
  #9  
Old 02-12-2020, 01:35 PM
Dung Beetle's Avatar
Dung Beetle is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Florida
Posts: 17,248
Our lab has a sample which may contain the virus. A lot of people are freaking out although if they follow normal specimen handling procedures there is no danger. I think most are just enjoying the drama.

On the up side, my husband and I do not have to travel to Beijing in April. The conference itself may not take place.
  #10  
Old 02-12-2020, 09:12 PM
Snowboarder Bo's Avatar
Snowboarder Bo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 29,310
Everyone thought yesterday's addition of only 3500 or so was possibly a sign that things were working…



They were wrong.

60,328 confirmed infected now
1,368 dead
5,995 recovered

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 02-12-2020 at 09:12 PM.
  #11  
Old 02-12-2020, 11:31 PM
Euphonious Polemic is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 13,001
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo View Post
Everyone thought yesterday's addition of only 3500 or so was possibly a sign that things were working…



They were wrong.

60,328 confirmed infected now
1,368 dead
5,995 recovered
175 of those cases from outside China
1 death from outside China (Phillipines)

I'm not going to panic just yet.

ETA: I believe the spike in cases reflects a new methodology for diagnosis. They are now accepting diagnosis using scans, rather than just RNA confirmation of the virus. This has led to the jump in confirmed cases - cases that would not have been confirmed before are being done so now.

Last edited by Euphonious Polemic; 02-12-2020 at 11:33 PM.
  #12  
Old 02-13-2020, 01:34 AM
Snowboarder Bo's Avatar
Snowboarder Bo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 29,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by Euphonious Polemic View Post
I'm not going to panic just yet.
Was there some call for panic in the thread that I didn't see?
  #13  
Old 02-13-2020, 02:26 AM
Riemann's Avatar
Riemann is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Santa Fe, NM, USA
Posts: 8,480
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo View Post
Was there some call for panic in the thread that I didn't see?
Was there a claim that there was a call for panic in the thread that I didn't see?
  #14  
Old 02-13-2020, 09:36 AM
Snowboarder Bo's Avatar
Snowboarder Bo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 29,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riemann View Post
Was there a claim that there was a call for panic in the thread that I didn't see?
I don't know what you didn't see and I don't know why you're inserting yourself into this as the question wasn't to you.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 02-13-2020 at 09:36 AM.
  #15  
Old 02-12-2020, 11:25 PM
Sunspace is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jun 1999
Location: Near the GT eeehhhh...
Posts: 27,959
The flights that evacuated Canadians out of Wuhan/Hubei province landed at CFB Trenton and the people are all in a two-week quarantine on the base.
__________________
Rigardu, kaj vi ekvidos.
Look, and you will begin to see.
  #16  
Old 02-13-2020, 08:34 AM
polar bear is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,206
This thing about the new methods is correct. Also, a large part of the people that are now counted as being infected/died from the virus, actually presented/died earlier, but are only included in the figures now.

Verstuurd vanaf mijn moto g(6) met Tapatalk

Last edited by polar bear; 02-13-2020 at 08:35 AM.
  #17  
Old 02-13-2020, 10:59 PM
Snowboarder Bo's Avatar
Snowboarder Bo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 29,310
64,436 confirmed infected
1,383 dead
6,886 recovered

Japan has over 250 confirmed infected at the moment and had their first COVID-19 fatality today.

Hong Kong also had one death attributed to the virus.

More than 60 million people in China are starting their 4th week of lockdown.
  #18  
Old 02-14-2020, 03:34 PM
snowthx's Avatar
snowthx is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Sacratomato area
Posts: 3,872
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo View Post
More than 60 million people in China are starting their 4th week of lockdown.
I am curious about this aspect of the event. What are all those people doing as shut-ins all this time? Will there be a baby-boom in China around September/October? How are they getting food and supplies? What's the plan for getting back to normal - will they gradually allow people to resume regular activities, or just tell everyone "all clear" and everyone just clicks back into life, like nothing happened?
  #19  
Old 02-14-2020, 04:12 PM
PastTense is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 8,452
Quote:
Originally Posted by snowthx View Post
I am curious about this aspect of the event. What are all those people doing as shut-ins all this time? Will there be a baby-boom in China around September/October? How are they getting food and supplies? What's the plan for getting back to normal - will they gradually allow people to resume regular activities, or just tell everyone "all clear" and everyone just clicks back into life, like nothing happened?
They are allowed out every couple days to get food. China has strong penetration of the internet so they are spending time on sites like Sina Weibo with 445 million active users:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sina_Weibo
The priority is getting the economy moving again so they will reopen the factories but discourage large gatherings.
  #20  
Old 02-14-2020, 05:23 PM
Gorsnak is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Saskaboom
Posts: 9,514
Quote:
Originally Posted by PastTense View Post
They are allowed out every couple days to get food. China has strong penetration of the internet so they are spending time on sites like Sina Weibo with 445 million active users:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sina_Weibo
The priority is getting the economy moving again so they will reopen the factories but discourage large gatherings.
Factories are large gatherings.
  #21  
Old 02-14-2020, 07:08 PM
China Guy is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Pacific Northwest
Posts: 12,147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo View Post
More than 60 million people in China are starting their 4th week of lockdown.
Your number is off by an order of magnitude. Hundreds of millions are in lockdown. Shanghai alone has 30M in lockdown

The various factories that the company I work for have in China are starting to get back on line depending on the location. This can mean a 2 week hard quarantine outside the factory area before the first 30 people can enter the factory. These factory complexes employ thousands, tens of thousands and even hundreds of thousands of staff. And they all need fresh face masks every shift.

In fact, our company has spun up their own mask line just to supply our line workers in China.
  #22  
Old 02-13-2020, 11:10 PM
puzzlegal's Avatar
puzzlegal is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 5,997
Thanks, this thread seems timely.

I'm flying tomorrow. I plan to wear a surgical face mask. They aren't great at keeping out viruses, but I find they are excellent at keeping my nasal passages hydrated on the dry airplane, and that's been found to reduce the risk of contracting respiratory diseases in general. It will also remind me not to touch my face.

Data point: my friend who was evacuated from China finally completed their 2 weeks of self-quarantine, and is relieved to rejoin the world.
  #23  
Old 02-13-2020, 11:29 PM
snfaulkner's Avatar
snfaulkner is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2015
Location: 123 Fake Street
Posts: 8,896
Stupid joke heard in the bar tonight...

What does coronavirus lead to?

SPOILER:
Lime disease
__________________
It may be because I'm a drooling simpleton with the attention span of a demented gnat, but would you mind explaining everything in words of one syllable. 140 chars max.
  #24  
Old 02-14-2020, 11:11 AM
Snowboarder Bo's Avatar
Snowboarder Bo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 29,310
China is reporting today that over 1700 health workers have been confirmed infected and 6 have died.

ETA: Health care providers account for about 3.8% of all cases, according to the article.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 02-14-2020 at 11:12 AM.
  #25  
Old 02-14-2020, 03:40 PM
RioRico is offline
Suspended
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: beyond cell service
Posts: 3,193
We're in our 70s and apparently boast fairly strong immune systems. We're in a small California mountain county and aren't exposed to many people at all. We plan to spend a few days in the Monterey-Santa Cruz area south of San Francisco which will be crawling with visitors from all over. If we hear of ONE case in that area, my wife will insist on canceling. Is she prudent, or paranoid, or what?
  #26  
Old 02-14-2020, 04:01 PM
ThelmaLou's Avatar
ThelmaLou is online now
Member
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Neither here nor there
Posts: 18,345
Quote:
Originally Posted by RioRico View Post
We're in our 70s and apparently boast fairly strong immune systems. We're in a small California mountain county and aren't exposed to many people at all. We plan to spend a few days in the Monterey-Santa Cruz area south of San Francisco which will be crawling with visitors from all over. If we hear of ONE case in that area, my wife will insist on canceling. Is she prudent, or paranoid, or what?
In making a decision like that, I ask myself, "What are the consequences if I get it wrong-- serious or minor?" Sometimes you get something seriously wrong, but the situation itself is not serious. IMHO this is potentially very serious. If you don't have to go there right now, why do it? Why even take the chance? I tend to err on the side of prudence, but that's just me. I'd avoid big coastal cities, big international crowds, and all cruises for the near future. My 2 cents.
  #27  
Old 02-14-2020, 04:16 PM
snowthx's Avatar
snowthx is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Sacratomato area
Posts: 3,872
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThelmaLou View Post
In making a decision like that, I ask myself, "What are the consequences if I get it wrong-- serious or minor?" Sometimes you get something seriously wrong, but the situation itself is not serious. IMHO this is potentially very serious. If you don't have to go there right now, why do it? Why even take the chance? I tend to err on the side of prudence, but that's just me. I'd avoid big coastal cities, big international crowds, and all cruises for the near future. My 2 cents.
I tend to agree with this in principle. We are not very good at assessing risks. There are several components to think about: What is the likelihood of the risk occurring? What is it's impact if it does occur? In this case, the likelihood is very low. However, the impact is potentially very high.

That said, even if you do catch this virus, chances are you wont notice it more than just a cold. Not everyone coming in contact with this is dying, far from it. However, what is your risk of NOT going to Monterey, compared to going? You may be out a small deposit for your lodging? But, if that buys you peace-of-mind, it's probably worth it. I would not want to have worry on my vacation like that.
  #28  
Old 02-14-2020, 04:20 PM
ThelmaLou's Avatar
ThelmaLou is online now
Member
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Neither here nor there
Posts: 18,345
Quote:
Originally Posted by snowthx View Post
I tend to agree with this in principle. We are not very good at assessing risks. There are several components to think about: What is the likelihood of the risk occurring? What is it's impact if it does occur? In this case, the likelihood is very low. However, the impact is potentially very high.

That said, even if you do catch this virus, chances are you wont notice it more than just a cold. Not everyone coming in contact with this is dying, far from it. However, what is your risk of NOT going to Monterey, compared to going? You may be out a small deposit for your lodging? But, if that buys you peace-of-mind, it's probably worth it. I would not want to have worry on my vacation like that.
Not to mention, RioRico & spouse are in their 70s (as am I). Hard as it is to admit, age affects your ability to withstand infections.
  #29  
Old 02-14-2020, 08:47 PM
RioRico is offline
Suspended
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: beyond cell service
Posts: 3,193
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThelmaLou View Post
Not to mention, RioRico & spouse are in their 70s (as am I). Hard as it is to admit, age affects your ability to withstand infections.
Thanks for the responses. We still have a couple days before deciding to save deposits or not. No, the trip isn't seriously necessary, and losing deposits won't seriously hurt. But we'll tend on the side of prudence. If you see no report of us visiting Ed Ricketts' lab, you'll know why.
  #30  
Old 02-14-2020, 09:43 PM
RioRico is offline
Suspended
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: beyond cell service
Posts: 3,193
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThelmaLou View Post
Not to mention, RioRico & spouse are in their 70s (as am I). Hard as it is to admit, age affects your ability to withstand infections.
Thanks for the responses. We still have a couple days before deciding to save deposits or not. No, the trip isn't seriously necessary, and losing deposits won't seriously hurt. But we'll tend on the side of prudence. If you see no report of us visiting Ed Ricketts' lab, you'll know why.
  #31  
Old 02-14-2020, 04:17 PM
Riemann's Avatar
Riemann is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Santa Fe, NM, USA
Posts: 8,480
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThelmaLou View Post
In making a decision like that, I ask myself, "What are the consequences if I get it wrong-- serious or minor?" Sometimes you get something seriously wrong, but the situation itself is not serious. IMHO this is potentially very serious. If you don't have to go there right now, why do it? Why even take the chance? I tend to err on the side of prudence, but that's just me. I'd avoid big coastal cities, big international crowds, and all cruises for the near future. My 2 cents.
I bet there are some cheap deals on cruises right now. They need some marketing spin - possible bonus of 2 extra free weeks on board.
  #32  
Old 02-14-2020, 09:27 PM
Voyager's Avatar
Voyager is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Deep Space
Posts: 47,745
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riemann View Post
I bet there are some cheap deals on cruises right now. They need some marketing spin - possible bonus of 2 extra free weeks on board.
I got an ad from Travelocity today about cheap fares to Hong Kong. Sure.
Asian cruises are way down.

I know someone who is a marketing exec at a Japanese tech company, and she didn't go to our meeting because she was busy cancelling meetings in China.
  #33  
Old 02-14-2020, 09:25 PM
Voyager's Avatar
Voyager is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Deep Space
Posts: 47,745
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThelmaLou View Post
In making a decision like that, I ask myself, "What are the consequences if I get it wrong-- serious or minor?" Sometimes you get something seriously wrong, but the situation itself is not serious. IMHO this is potentially very serious. If you don't have to go there right now, why do it? Why even take the chance? I tend to err on the side of prudence, but that's just me. I'd avoid big coastal cities, big international crowds, and all cruises for the near future. My 2 cents.
Santa Cruz is not a big city, and doesn't have an airport or a dock receiving passengers from infected areas. No cases there that I've heard. I'm probably more at risk where I live in the Bay Area than he would be. And I'm not worried. I'm not in my 70s, only 68 though.
  #34  
Old 02-14-2020, 09:36 PM
Sunny Daze's Avatar
Sunny Daze is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Bay Area Urban Sprawl
Posts: 13,739
I wouldn't worry about traveling to the Santa Cruz area at this time. Avoid the Boardwalk if you think tourists are a risk, but otherwise enjoy yourself.
  #35  
Old 02-15-2020, 12:29 AM
squeegee's Avatar
squeegee is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Aptos CA
Posts: 9,354
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunny Daze View Post
I wouldn't worry about traveling to the Santa Cruz area at this time. Avoid the Boardwalk if you think tourists are a risk, but otherwise enjoy yourself.
Agree. I live very near Santa Cruz. It's a pocket concentration of people, isolated and on the south end (with a mountain barrier) of a ginormous population in the San Jose, SF peninsula, East Bay and SF areas. 250k-ish folk in this county, vs something like 8 million up there.
  #36  
Old 02-14-2020, 11:43 PM
Snowboarder Bo's Avatar
Snowboarder Bo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 29,310
Today's numbers:

67,088 confirmed infected
1,526 dead
8,283 recovered
  #37  
Old 02-15-2020, 11:03 AM
Snowboarder Bo's Avatar
Snowboarder Bo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 29,310
New virus cases fall; WHO says China bought the world time
Quote:
The U.N. health agency’s director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, urged governments to step up their efforts to prepare for the virus, saying “it’s impossible to predict which direction this epidemic will take.”

Tedros told a gathering of international foreign and security policy leaders in Germany on Saturday that WHO is encouraged there has not yet been widespread transmission outside China and that “the steps China has taken to contain the outbreak at its source appear to have bought the world time.”

“We’re encouraged that an international team of experts is now on the ground working closely with Chinese counterparts to understand the outbreak,” Tedros told the Munich Security Conference.

But he said the agency is “concerned by the continued increase in the number of cases in China,” and by reports about the number of health workers who have been infected or died.

“We’re concerned by the lack of urgency in funding the response from the international community,” Tedros said.

“We must use the window of opportunity we have to intensify our preparedness,” he added. “China has bought the world time. We don’t know how much time.”
Also in the article is the news that France has recorded their first death due to COVID-19.
  #38  
Old 02-15-2020, 06:35 PM
Snowboarder Bo's Avatar
Snowboarder Bo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 29,310
The AP has posted a primer of sorts on the virus.

I won't quote the whole article; these are the subjects covered:

WHAT IS THE NEW VIRUS?
HOW FAST IS THE OUTBREAK GROWING?
IS QUARANTINE WORKING?
COULD THE VIRUS BE SPREADING SILENTLY IN OTHER PLACES?
HOW DOES INFECTION SPREAD?
WHAT ABOUT TREATMENTS AND VACCINES?
  #39  
Old 02-15-2020, 11:10 PM
Snowboarder Bo's Avatar
Snowboarder Bo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 29,310
69,256 confirmed infected
1,669 dead
9,626 recovered
  #40  
Old 02-16-2020, 02:22 PM
rbroome is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 3,633
Those people who keep monitoring and posting COVID-19 deaths should keep this in mind:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/chi...oo-51581622840

As in so much data coming out of China, the death toll is probably made up and bears no relation to what is really happening. At least that is the belief of people looking at the data. Perhaps there has been more analysis since this Barron's article, but I haven't seen any refutation.

Not that it means much. China's arbitrary 2% death rate is probably as accurate as any other possible estimate this early in the cycle. Since we don't know how many people are getting infected, we can't calculate a death rate.
  #41  
Old 02-16-2020, 10:02 PM
Snowboarder Bo's Avatar
Snowboarder Bo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 29,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by rbroome View Post
Those people who keep monitoring and posting COVID-19 deaths should keep this in mind:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/chi...oo-51581622840

As in so much data coming out of China, the death toll is probably made up and bears no relation to what is really happening. At least that is the belief of people looking at the data. Perhaps there has been more analysis since this Barron's article, but I haven't seen any refutation.

Not that it means much. China's arbitrary 2% death rate is probably as accurate as any other possible estimate this early in the cycle. Since we don't know how many people are getting infected, we can't calculate a death rate.
<shrug>

They are the only numbers available.
  #42  
Old 02-16-2020, 03:54 PM
aruvqan is offline
Embracing the Suck
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Eastern Connecticut
Posts: 17,287
I got twitchy this morning, week and a half ago I took our roomie in for her cardioversion and now I have a sore throat that is not starting how my normal rhinovirus/colds start. So sinc ethis past week was mrAru's last week at his job [now his job is packing up the barn for moving] we have enough food to do 2 weeks of self quarantine just in case, and if it gets worse I am going to make an appointment with my primary [figures, 1.5 weeks before my appointment to redo all my vaccinations *sigh*]
__________________
"Rammstein might not be the most sophisticated band there is, but who doesn't like the smell of napalm in the evening air"
  #43  
Old 02-16-2020, 04:23 PM
China Guy is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Pacific Northwest
Posts: 12,147
aruvqan. Here are the facts: there are 15 known cases in the US. There were two instances of husband-wife transmission.3 have been released as recovered. The other 9 cases have not spread. The most 3 new cases all came from evacualtion flights from the epicenter, and all of those are in a hard quarantine.

If IIRC, ignoring those 3 cases that came in on the evacuation flight, there have been no other new infections in the US in the past 2 weeks (since my wife returned from Shanghai).

There is a mysterious case of a Japanese visitor to Hawaii, who has tested positive. Highly likely he got it before or on the plane to Hawaii.

The US has 300 m+ population, and 12 active cases. You have a greater chance of being struck by lightening in the US.

(None of this is to downplay the conditions in China especially the epicenter. The company I work for has a very large factory there, I have colleagues, friends and work friends that are in the hot zone, thru marriage I have literally hundreds of family in the province. I also lived in China for SARS, and total understand the paranoia that creeps into every facet of daily life. BUT, we are in the US with 15 cases total and no sign of an epidemic in sight.)
  #44  
Old 02-16-2020, 07:01 PM
aruvqan is offline
Embracing the Suck
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Eastern Connecticut
Posts: 17,287
Quote:
Originally Posted by China Guy View Post
aruvqan. Here are the facts: there are 15 known cases in the US. There were two instances of husband-wife transmission.3 have been released as recovered. The other 9 cases have not spread. The most 3 new cases all came from evacualtion flights from the epicenter, and all of those are in a hard quarantine.

If IIRC, ignoring those 3 cases that came in on the evacuation flight, there have been no other new infections in the US in the past 2 weeks (since my wife returned from Shanghai).

There is a mysterious case of a Japanese visitor to Hawaii, who has tested positive. Highly likely he got it before or on the plane to Hawaii.

The US has 300 m+ population, and 12 active cases. You have a greater chance of being struck by lightening in the US.

(None of this is to downplay the conditions in China especially the epicenter. The company I work for has a very large factory there, I have colleagues, friends and work friends that are in the hot zone, thru marriage I have literally hundreds of family in the province. I also lived in China for SARS, and total understand the paranoia that creeps into every facet of daily life. BUT, we are in the US with 15 cases total and no sign of an epidemic in sight.)
I know, but since chemo I have been slightly paranoid =) and mrAru's company has a factory in China and ships techs and productss back and forth ...
__________________
"Rammstein might not be the most sophisticated band there is, but who doesn't like the smell of napalm in the evening air"
  #45  
Old 02-17-2020, 08:33 AM
bordelond's Avatar
bordelond is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: La Rive Ouest
Posts: 10,739
Quote:
Originally Posted by aruvqan View Post
... mrAru's company has a factory in China and ships techs and products back and forth ...
You Won't Catch The New Coronavirus Via Packages Or Mail From China (NPR)
  #46  
Old 02-17-2020, 11:33 AM
aruvqan is offline
Embracing the Suck
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Eastern Connecticut
Posts: 17,287
Quote:
Originally Posted by bordelond View Post
Doesn't mean that one of the tech shipped over here for something hasn't been exposed ... though I meant one last year who was a real sweetheart,I know Japanese habit is to bring little gifts to the office workers that one is visiting, didn't know it was also a Chinese habit =)
__________________
"Rammstein might not be the most sophisticated band there is, but who doesn't like the smell of napalm in the evening air"
  #47  
Old 03-14-2020, 12:31 AM
Mama Zappa is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 12,843
We have a grocery delivery for tomorrow. It'll be interesting to see which things we won't get because they're out of stock.

I went to the nearby Wegman's to pick up one or two more things (including a bottle of wine for a recipe) and it was shocking. The produce bins were largely empty. No onions or bell peppers. Little fruit of any kind. They seemed to have bananas though.

It got worse. The frozen vegetable section had a few packs of sweet potatoes, butternut squash, and pearl onions. It was otherwise completely, utterly wiped out.

They actually had a decent bit of ground beef. I hadn't been looking for that but i figured I'd grab it and make some spaghetti sauce... which meant i needed canned tomatoes.

That aisle was nearly empty too. The only canned tomatoes i could find were the gallon size. I found sauce, and a few cans of stewed.

The beer and wine section didn't look too picked over which surprised me given how many people are joking that they stocked up on alcohol.

People are not going nuts over ice cream, to my surprise; that section was a little picked over but they still had a good selection.

I didn't even look in the TP aisle!

As i checked out, i said to the cashier that i bet he was glad the day was nearly over (this was about 10:30 PM). He said it had been crazy but was even n worse Thursday.
  #48  
Old 03-14-2020, 12:57 AM
Dr_Paprika is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: South of Toronto, Canada
Posts: 4,539
It isn’t true - we know a bit. The Economist article goes into detail on treatments effective for the SARS coronavirus. But there are enormous gaps in our knowledge. DSeid spends most of the last three paragraphs outlining what we don’t really know.

I saw a newspaper article comparing two towns during an epidemic decades ago - one of which held a parade, one which cancelled it. The death rate was higher in the town which allowed the parade. The author drew the conclusion was parades and public gatherings are bad. It could be. But there are a thousand other things that could have made a difference too. In science and medicine, as in life, it is surprisingly easy to draw false conclusions.
__________________
"A noble spirit embiggens the smallest man"
  #49  
Old 03-21-2020, 09:40 PM
Dr_Paprika is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: South of Toronto, Canada
Posts: 4,539
A disturbing article in The (Toronto) Globe and Mail today on March 21, 2020 called “When does social distancing end? These graphs show where we’re headed and why.”

It shows the mathematical consequences of ending social distancing after 1, 3 and 6 months etc. and discusses why it might be hard to end it sooner in Canada, as well as “planking the curve”.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...-were-heading/
__________________
"A noble spirit embiggens the smallest man"

Last edited by Dr_Paprika; 03-21-2020 at 09:42 PM.
  #50  
Old 05-07-2020, 07:27 PM
DrDeth is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: San Jose
Posts: 44,791
Quote:
Originally Posted by bordelond View Post
Mind you, washing your hands after opening the mail isnt a bad idea anyway.
__________________
I am not a real Doctor
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:00 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2019 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017