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  #151  
Old 03-25-2020, 04:33 PM
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I'm trying to decide what that threshold is. Could be a good two months of hyper-vigilance before gradually relaxing a bit. But it depends on the situation and the national response. If I see that the threat is getting closer and closer and nothing is stopping it, I might have to rethink that. I don't have a death wish, and I'd feel terrible if I infected her or other members of my family.
I think that's why testing is really important. Imagine if we had a map of census districts, color-coded based on case density (# confirmed cases per 100,000, let's say). If you knew your district was high density, you would probably be really vigilant about staying away other people, and everyone in that district would understand why they were being placed under a "shelter-at-home" order.

I like talking walks. I live in a neighborhood where the houses are close to the sidewalk. I've been walking in the middle of the street to maximize my distance from any one domicile and thus minimize my risk. It would be great if I had an app that would alert me if I was in close proximity to an address with a known carrier. Or alert me if the pedestrian approaching me on the sidewalk is a known carrier or lives with someone who is (as long as they are carrying their cell phone). I know this is an unrealistic dream. But it could be done if we had unrestricted testing and people shared their results with a data scientist with enough time on their hands.

Right now we're flying blind and that's maddening.
  #152  
Old 03-25-2020, 04:33 PM
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People are idiots. We're gonna get hit just as hard as Italy did.
Yes and no.

Yes we will have numbers just because we are a larger country.

But no because since we have fewer elderly and those we have, well the US has fewer living with families but whom live in nursing homes which are easier to quarantine.

We also have fewer connections with China.
  #153  
Old 03-25-2020, 04:35 PM
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Yes and no.

Yes we will have numbers just because we are a larger country.

But no because since we have fewer elderly and those we have, well the US has fewer living with families but whom live in nursing homes which are easier to quarantine.

We also have fewer connections with China.
"Easier to quarantine"

You may want to re-think that after you look at the pandemic hot spots.

And the connections with China are meaningless at this point. The virus is in every state, currently propagating through the communities. Even those with ZERO "connections with China"

Last edited by Euphonious Polemic; 03-25-2020 at 04:36 PM.
  #154  
Old 03-25-2020, 04:42 PM
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Yes and no.

Yes we will have numbers just because we are a larger country.

But no because since we have fewer elderly and those we have, well the US has fewer living with families but whom live in nursing homes which are easier to quarantine.

We also have fewer connections with China.
That's like saying, "at this point the arson is under arrest and no vegetation is in contact with his lighters, so we expect the wildfire to die down any day now"

"And luckily, we keep everyone's dry brush in one central location, so we don't have to worry about fires spreading into town!"

Last edited by Babale; 03-25-2020 at 04:43 PM.
  #155  
Old 03-25-2020, 05:19 PM
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But no because since we have fewer elderly and those we have, well the US has fewer living with families but whom live in nursing homes which are easier to quarantine.
Entire N.J. nursing home presumed to have COVID-19 as U.S. toll hits 800
  #156  
Old 03-25-2020, 05:33 PM
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Obesity is big factor for COVID-19 hospitalizations and mortality. So is diabetes. So is asthma.

We have a lot of folks with these conditions here in the US.
  #157  
Old 03-25-2020, 05:33 PM
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Those are the people most vulnerable and should be quarantined.
...what you don't seem to understand here is what is meant by vulnerable. Those 70 plus people that are wandering around the supermarket are probably more likely to be hospitalised and die from Covid-19. But the 22 year-old waiter or the 19 year-old student are equally vulnerable to catching and spreading Covid-19. And being 22 years of age does not make you immune to being hospitalised or from dying of Covid-19. There are people that age tying up hospital resources on ventilators as we speak.

However you are imagining Covid-19 works isn't the reality. Quarantining only the old won't stop the spread of Covid-19, it won't take the pressure of the medical system and it won't flatten the curve.

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We also have fewer connections with China.
This...isn't how ANY of this works. This animation shows how viruses spread. You could have zero connections with China, and only a single case of Covid-19 and you would get the same exponential explosion of cases.
  #158  
Old 03-26-2020, 12:58 AM
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...what you don't seem to understand here is what is meant by vulnerable. Those 70 plus people that are wandering around the supermarket are probably more likely to be hospitalised and die from Covid-19. But the 22 year-old waiter or the 19 year-old student are equally vulnerable to catching and spreading Covid-19. And being 22 years of age does not make you immune to being hospitalised or from dying of Covid-19. There are people that age tying up hospital resources on ventilators as we speak.
Hate to be the one, but you really need to be citing this sort of stuff. You are essentially spreading panic and misinformation; not once have I seen any footage, credible reports, or sources pertaining to 19-22 year olds being on ventilators.

I've actually seen this posted around everywhere, particularly the panic ridden subreddits - that teens to 20 somethings are having to take ventilators away from the old. Please, source this crap. I've read it everywhere and the statistics of this virus simply do not match up with that narrative.
  #159  
Old 03-26-2020, 01:08 AM
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Hate to be the one, but you really need to be citing this sort of stuff. You are essentially spreading panic and misinformation; not once have I seen any footage, credible reports, or sources pertaining to 19-22 year olds being on ventilators.
...do twelve year olds count?


Quote:
I've actually seen this posted around everywhere, particularly the panic ridden subreddits - that teens to 20 somethings are having to take ventilators away from the old. Please, source this crap. I've read it everywhere and the statistics of this virus simply do not match up with that narrative.
This isn't my narrative. I'm not spreading panic. If you reading stuff on subreddits that you disagree with then the appropriate place to address that is on that particular subreddit, not here. I don't know what the fuck this has to do with anything I said.

Oh, and welcome to the dope.
  #160  
Old 03-26-2020, 06:20 AM
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...do twelve year olds count?




This isn't my narrative. I'm not spreading panic. If you reading stuff on subreddits that you disagree with then the appropriate place to address that is on that particular subreddit, not here. I don't know what the fuck this has to do with anything I said.

Oh, and welcome to the dope.
You kind of are spreading panic. A pretty insignificant number of 10-20 year olds will need ventilators. Vox
Quote:
Tweens and teens (10 to 19 years old)

The important stats on adolescents and just-turned-adults:

- In Spain, out of 221 cases for people 10 to 19, 15 of them have been hospitalized, a 7 percent rate; none have ended up in intensive care. One person in this age range has died, a 0.4 percent fatality rate.
- Italy and South Korea have reported no fatalities for this group; China reports that 0.2 percent of cases for these young people end in death.
- In the US, there had been no ICU admittances or deaths reported among people under 20 as of late last week; only a small percentage (1.6 percent) had been hospitalized.
  #161  
Old 03-26-2020, 06:38 AM
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You kind of are spreading panic. A pretty insignificant number of 10-20 year olds will need ventilators. Vox
...can you point out the people that are panicking because of my (pretty mild, uncontroversial in context) statement? Just one person panicking would be enough to suffice. My statement said nothing about risk which was what your cite is all about. I made a simple, factual statement that both my cite and your cite backs up.
  #162  
Old 03-26-2020, 06:58 AM
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My cite does not back you up actually, as at the time of its writing there weren't any 10-20 year olds in ICU.
  #163  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:04 AM
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My cite does not back you up actually, as at the time of its writing there weren't any 10-20 year olds in ICU.
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Originally Posted by Banquet Bear View Post
...what you don't seem to understand here is what is meant by vulnerable. Those 70 plus people that are wandering around the supermarket are probably more likely to be hospitalised and die from Covid-19. But the 22 year-old waiter or the 19 year-old student are equally vulnerable to catching and spreading Covid-19. And being 22 years of age does not make you immune to being hospitalised or from dying of Covid-19. There are people that age tying up hospital resources on ventilators as we speak.
...what my cite said: a twelve year old on a ventilator.

What your cite says: a (small) percentage of 20-30 year old people in ICU.

Both cites back up what I said. Nothing I said spreads panic and misinformation. I made a simple, factual statement that both my cite and your cite backs up.
  #164  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:07 AM
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Whatever you say.
  #165  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:24 AM
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Why? When I went to the grocery store there were several elderly people easily plus 70 years walking around with no masks on.

Those are the people most vulnerable and should be quarantined.

NOT the 22 year old waiter who just lost his job or the 19 year old whos college was closed.

No, I know darn well how this virus works plus I see the economic and social impact on our society.
You may understand how the virus works and not understand the impact it will have on the health system.

I've got news for you: one in six people will need hospitalization, and many of those one in six are well below the age of 70, and in some cases, quite young. More than that, it's not just old people getting sick - that's a terrible misconception. It's anyone with an underlying condition, and guess what? About 40% of this country has a huge underlying condition called obesity.

It's a numbers game, Urban. The health system hasn't calculated the epidemic. It never factored that into the system the way it did even a bad strain of influenza. Do you get that?!

If young people say "Screw it, I'm gonna live life" and go out infecting just other young people, you're going to have tens or even hundreds of thousands of other young people so sick that they will stagger into ICUs all over America gasping for air. And if you get enough of them concentrated into one place at the same time, that creates a health triage crisis.

But beyond that, who exactly is the young waiter supposed to serve food to? Who are your consumers going to be? Who's going to consume and keep the economy going -- fresh college graduates with six figure debt?

I mean get real.

You fundamentally don't understand what's going on. Take a break from Fox News and do some reading once in a while.

Last edited by asahi; 03-26-2020 at 07:26 AM.
  #166  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:31 AM
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You kind of are spreading panic. A pretty insignificant number of 10-20 year olds will need ventilators. Vox
That's true, but pretty unimportant to point out. It's not an insignificant number overall, across all ages. The 10 or 12-person medical team of anesthesiologists, radiology technicians, ER physicians, pulmonologists, and other members of the medical team and assistants really don't have time to consider someone's age. The bodies just start piling up to the point where they not only can't do their job, but end up getting themselves sick, putting even further strain on the system.

I'm not saying you're doing this, but nitpicking about who's most at risk is a fool's errand. What really matters is getting the total numbers of infected down, getting the number of disease vectors down. It's a game of math, and we're losing.

Last edited by asahi; 03-26-2020 at 07:32 AM.
  #167  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:48 AM
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I think a good way to illustrate the math wrt to the "flattening the curve" is talking about hospitalizations. If 50% of America gets covid-19, an average of about 20% will require a hospital stay, (330M×.5×.2) so about 33M. In 2018, the CDC said there was about 7.9% of Americans who required a hospital stay, (330×.079) so about 26M. There's probably some overlap of people who would've required hospital treatment but you can see this conservative estimate shows hospitals will likely have over double the normal patients this year.
  #168  
Old 03-26-2020, 09:39 AM
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You fundamentally don't understand what's going on. Take a break from Fox News and do some reading once in a while.
Maybe you need to take a break from CNN.

Well we will just have to see now wont we. I guess if your right and millions of people under age 60 start flooding our hospitals and later our cemeteries, you will be right. Right now thousands of spring breakers have recently returned from going their usual crazy selves in Florida and yes, some have been reported to have the virus. Lets see what happens.
  #169  
Old 03-26-2020, 09:45 AM
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This...isn't how ANY of this works. This [URL="https://www.dezeen.com/2020/03/22/coronavirus-animations-toby-morris-siouxsie-wiles-design-graphics/"
animation [/URL]shows how viruses spread. You could have zero connections with China, and only a single case of Covid-19 and you would get the same exponential explosion of cases.
I suppose that animation works if ZERO preventative measures are taken and under ideal conditions. Your not taking into account people who do get the virus on their hands might wash it off before they are infected. A sick person might NOT give it to someone else because other people keep their distance and dont shake hands.

Really if that animation was true (and I mean absolutely true with no preventive measures) I'd think the whole country would be infected by now. Remember this all started back in November.
  #170  
Old 03-26-2020, 10:14 AM
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I suppose that animation works if ZERO preventative measures are taken and under ideal conditions. Your not taking into account people who do get the virus on their hands might wash it off before they are infected. .
Maybe we shouldn't be washing our hands so much. We are robbing our grandchildren's fresh water supply.
  #171  
Old 03-26-2020, 10:23 AM
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I suppose that animation works if ZERO preventative measures are taken and under ideal conditions. Your not taking into account people who do get the virus on their hands might wash it off before they are infected. A sick person might NOT give it to someone else because other people keep their distance and dont shake hands.

Really if that animation was true (and I mean absolutely true with no preventive measures) I'd think the whole country would be infected by now. Remember this all started back in November.
Just imagine how many people have been infected by pot luck meals!

CMC fnord!
  #172  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:51 AM
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I suppose that animation works if ZERO preventative measures are taken and under ideal conditions. Your not taking into account people who do get the virus on their hands might wash it off before they are infected. A sick person might NOT give it to someone else because other people keep their distance and dont shake hands.

Really if that animation was true (and I mean absolutely true with no preventive measures) I'd think the whole country would be infected by now. Remember this all started back in November.
That and as some scientists are pointing out, real-life infections don't work the way some of the numbers are being presented. The 1 person=2.3 new infections for instance. In reality, since most people tend to interact with mostly the same people everyday, so infections don't spread as fast and can be contained.

The lockdown is necessary though.
  #173  
Old 03-26-2020, 04:41 PM
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I suppose that animation works if ZERO preventative measures are taken and under ideal conditions. Your not taking into account people who do get the virus on their hands might wash it off before they are infected.
...this was a simplified animation put together by the head of the Bioluminescent Superbugs Lab at the University of Auckland to help laypeople like you understand how Covid-19 spreads, and how social distancing can break the chain of transmission. So don't fight the hypothetical.

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A sick person might NOT give it to someone else because other people keep their distance and dont shake hands.
in other words, a sick person might not give it to someone else because they are practicing safe distancing? Congratulations. You might finally be understanding how this all works.

Quote:
Really if that animation was true (and I mean absolutely true with no preventive measures) I'd think the whole country would be infected by now. Remember this all started back in November.
In the last few minutes America raced ahead of both China and Italy in number of total cases of Convid-19. Considering how little testing is happening and the inconsistency of how different states are handling this crisis the actual number is probably significantly higher. And considering how weak the Federal response has been I think we are going to see this number spiral out of control.

This has barely started for America. The worst is yet to come. Save lives. Just stay home.
  #174  
Old 03-26-2020, 09:45 PM
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Maybe you need to take a break from CNN.

Well we will just have to see now wont we. I guess if your right and millions of people under age 60 start flooding our hospitals and later our cemeteries, you will be right. Right now thousands of spring breakers have recently returned from going their usual crazy selves in Florida and yes, some have been reported to have the virus. Lets see what happens.
They may not be flooding the cemeteries (yet), but they're flooding the hospitals already.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...m6912e2-F2.gif

Whether they die or not isn't the only consideration; if you encourage young people to carry on as if this isn't a big deal, you're going to crush the healthcare system. As I've said: the healthcare system doesn't have enough beds, enough doctors, enough medicines.

We're in the early innings of a long game, urbanredneck. And the hospitalization rates and the fatality rates are growing exponentially.
  #175  
Old 03-26-2020, 10:28 PM
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Maybe you need to take a break from CNN.

Well we will just have to see now wont we. I guess if your right and millions of people under age 60 start flooding our hospitals and later our cemeteries, you will be right. Right now thousands of spring breakers have recently returned from going their usual crazy selves in Florida and yes, some have been reported to have the virus. Lets see what happens.
The CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report has an article posted on Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) — United States, February 12–March 16, 2020

The money quote:

Quote:
Among 121 patients known to have been admitted to an ICU, 7% of cases were reported among adults ≥85 years, 46% among adults aged 65–84 years, 36% among adults aged 45–64 years, and 12% among adults aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). No ICU admissions were reported among persons aged ≤19 years. Percentages of ICU admissions were lowest among adults aged 20–44 years (2%–4%) and highest among adults aged 75–84 years (11%–31%) (Table).
Let that sink in: very nearly half (48%) of those admitted to an ICU were working-age adults, aged 20 to 64. They weren't admitted to ICU for shits and giggles; they required extensive medical intervention, which may or may not have included ventilators.

The younger you are, the more likely you are to survive a spell in ICU, but that is still a bed occupied and staff involved, which works only as long as the beds and staff are available.
  #176  
Old 03-30-2020, 01:33 PM
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Florida finally issues a stay at home order, for only half the state. The spread is already exponential.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill...-florida%3famp
  #177  
Old 03-31-2020, 06:03 AM
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  #178  
Old 03-31-2020, 07:45 AM
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I wonder how much the fact that it's Trump is making this more controversial than it should.
For one thing, one of the drivers of the "let's sacrifice Granny on the alter of Mammon" trial balloons is fear on the right that the GOP is big-red-capital-Superman-"S" screwed as a result of Trump's bungling this crisis.
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Old 03-31-2020, 08:36 AM
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They may not be flooding the cemeteries (yet), but they're flooding the hospitals already.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...m6912e2-F2.gif

Whether they die or not isn't the only consideration; if you encourage young people to carry on as if this isn't a big deal, you're going to crush the healthcare system. As I've said: the healthcare system doesn't have enough beds, enough doctors, enough medicines.

We're in the early innings of a long game, urbanredneck. And the hospitalization rates and the fatality rates are growing exponentially.
Does the US have a website with a detailed national epidemiological summary, the way Canada does?

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...-19-cases.html
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Old 03-31-2020, 09:57 AM
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Well if news from Italy and Spain are to be believed, 3 weeks is when people start to seriously chafe

https://www.ft.com/content/eb81dc96-...a-bf88653b0b8d
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Old 04-01-2020, 02:20 PM
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Well if news from Italy and Spain are to be believed, 3 weeks is when people start to seriously chafe

https://www.ft.com/content/eb81dc96-...a-bf88653b0b8d
We've been effectively isolated for five weeks and we're not chafing, only bored. YMMV.
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Old 04-12-2020, 02:57 AM
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Even with some countries paying most of an employee’s salary to stay home, I don’t see how a half-year or longer shutdown would be tolerated anywhere.
In Australia, there is a general understanding that 6 months is a long as the government can afford to pay people to stay at home. It's not just the people who's nerve is going to break after 6 months.
  #183  
Old 05-04-2020, 01:53 PM
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I guess 7 weeks is the answer.
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Old 05-04-2020, 04:03 PM
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First: We're not in lockdown. I've been in a city under military lockdown. It's rather unmistakable. We're sheltering, avoiding needless exposure hopefully. We're not sealed in our homes except by our own caution.

Next: I understand people chafing at safe distancing. I expect less cautious folks to gaily sally forth as businesses re-open. I foresee post-opening infection spikes, further economic losses, and more draconian emergency orders. Any who WANT a lockdown need merely infect as many as possible. That'll put troops on your street.

So: How long will people shelter, mask, distance, wash? Cautious survivors will continue till vaccinations succeed.
  #185  
Old 05-05-2020, 08:26 AM
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This rather charmingly low tech news broadcast suggests that "quarantine fatigue' is kicking in, and people are moving about more than they were a few weeks ago:

https://www.ktvb.com/article/news/lo...1-ab80cb9b52f6
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Old 05-05-2020, 12:58 PM
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As my area reopens I'm sure their will be some increase but I doubt we will have the huge spikes we had back in March.

For one, many stores have protections in place like barriers and are cleaning things more often. The most vulnerable in nursing homes are still under quarantine. People are wearing masks, using sanitizer, and practicing social distancing. Large gatherings are still prohibited.

Now hopefully we wont see the spikes at the meat packing plants anymore.

So while I see a spike, I dont see it to be as big.
  #187  
Old 05-05-2020, 02:07 PM
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As my area reopens I'm sure their will be some increase but I doubt we will have the huge spikes we had back in March.

For one, many stores have protections in place like barriers and are cleaning things more often. The most vulnerable in nursing homes are still under quarantine. People are wearing masks, using sanitizer, and practicing social distancing. Large gatherings are still prohibited.

Now hopefully we wont see the spikes at the meat packing plants anymore.

So while I see a spike, I dont see it to be as big.
???

I found this little utility that lets me look at new case numbers per day per state.

During the week of March 22 ( the last week I can see on this tool) Kansas had 255 new cases. During the past week, they had 1904 new cases. While I don’t have the graph for earlier in March I do have an article which shows the first case coming in on March 7th and 14 total on March 17th.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-...emic_in_Kansas

So I really can’t figure out what you’re referring to when you talk about avoiding the “spikes” you had in March. I guess in some sense that it’s worse when you go from 2 cases to 4 in a day than it is when you go from 500 to 975 in day because the rate of increase is lower.

But the linear rate of new cases in Kansas is heading UP UP UP with no leveling in sight. I think your confidence is misplaced.
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Old 05-05-2020, 08:03 PM
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The most vulnerable in nursing homes are still under quarantine.
USA Today: 'It makes no sense': Feds consider relaxing infection control in US nursing homes

That's atop the sleazy long-care facility industry itself. MrsRico's mother died in one of a chain that, as we learned too late, regularly settles wrongful death suits. But if you figure the residents have been abandoned then why not just let-em die? Quarantine in a hotspot is a death sentence. THEY are the populace in lockdown, trapped within walls.
♫ If your granny's
Got the COVID, then
You gotta let her die ♫
Another appropriate lyric would see a slight rewrite of Jimi Hendrix from "Have you ever been experienced?" to "Have you ever been expendable... well I have."
  #189  
Old 05-05-2020, 09:04 PM
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They're been debating making these changes since July without putting them into effect. It would be interesting, and odd, if they decided to go ahead with them in the near future considering everything that has changed since last summer.
  #190  
Old 05-06-2020, 02:46 AM
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Originally Posted by RioRico View Post
USA Today: 'It makes no sense': Feds consider relaxing infection control in US nursing homes

That's atop the sleazy long-care facility industry itself. MrsRico's mother died in one of a chain that, as we learned too late, regularly settles wrongful death suits. But if you figure the residents have been abandoned then why not just let-em die? Quarantine in a hotspot is a death sentence. THEY are the populace in lockdown, trapped within walls.
♫ If your granny's
Got the COVID, then
You gotta let her die ♫
Another appropriate lyric would see a slight rewrite of Jimi Hendrix from "Have you ever been experienced?" to "Have you ever been expendable... well I have."
From your cite:
Quote:
CMS told USA TODAY its rule would allow facilities to determine for themselves the time needed for infection prevention and go above part-time when warranted.
That's worked so well so far.
And I love your song version.
  #191  
Old 05-06-2020, 04:26 AM
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???

I found this little utility that lets me look at new case numbers per day per state.

During the week of March 22 ( the last week I can see on this tool) Kansas had 255 new cases. During the past week, they had 1904 new cases. While I don’t have the graph for earlier in March I do have an article which shows the first case coming in on March 7th and 14 total on March 17th.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-...emic_in_Kansas

So I really can’t figure out what you’re referring to when you talk about avoiding the “spikes” you had in March. I guess in some sense that it’s worse when you go from 2 cases to 4 in a day than it is when you go from 500 to 975 in day because the rate of increase is lower.

But the linear rate of new cases in Kansas is heading UP UP UP with no leveling in sight. I think your confidence is misplaced.
Yes the case rate in Kansas has spiked but that is because they have finally been doing testing in areas they had not before. This has really made the numbers go crazy.

I had wrote earlier that I thought most Kansas counties had been doing adequate testing and it looked like western Kansas was virus free. I was wrong. Ford county home of Dodge city and its numerous meatpacking plants, went from like 1-2 cases to over 500 now within a week or 2. Same with Seward county and Leavenworth county home to many state and federal prisons. LINK Thats all because they were finally testing people. I wish they had been doing this a month ago. Your absolutely right ripping the bandaid off right now would be crazy.

Again, this jump is because of increased testing. You go from testing 10 people to testing 1,000 the number is bound to shoot up.

What I'm saying is we can selectively lift quarantine in selective areas and in selective places of business to put more people back to work and keep people from going crazy. Precautions are being made. Lots of people everywhere are wearing masks. In the grocery stores they clean everything, people try to keep social distance, and the checkouts have barriers. Almost every store I visit now has hand sanitizer and they limit the number of people in them. My work gives out masks and they push sanitizer and hand washing and people are doing it.

A big problem will be the increase in cases coming from the prisons but I'm not sure how they control a situation like that.

Cant you look around and see how the world has changed in the last 3 months? It doesnt matter if we wait till the end of August there will be spikes up and down in different places.

But I think now they can be controlled.
  #192  
Old 05-06-2020, 05:42 AM
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{...} But I think now they can be controlled.
Is that based on your expertise in epidemiology?
BTW what is your expertise in this subject? A brief CV would suffice.

CMC fnord!

Last edited by crowmanyclouds; 05-06-2020 at 05:43 AM.
  #193  
Old 05-06-2020, 10:19 AM
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Is that based on your expertise in epidemiology?
BTW what is your expertise in this subject? A brief CV would suffice.

CMC fnord!
You dont need a PHd to see the world has changed.
  #194  
Old 05-06-2020, 10:23 AM
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You dont need a PHd to see the world has changed.
Correct, it's a PhD you'd need.
  #195  
Old 05-06-2020, 11:56 AM
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Yes the case rate in Kansas has spiked but that is because they have finally been doing testing in areas they had not before. This has really made the numbers go crazy.

But I think now they can be controlled.
Unclear if there's enough testing in Kansas to make this statement. Recent testing data is borderline at best; you need enough testing to be able to track your new cases and have some degree of confidence you're not failing to count a large number of infected. Kansas data here: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/kansas

General rule of thumb is you want your testing to show a 10% rate of positive cases or less. You want the rate of positive tests to be low compared to total tests; that way, you can be somewhat confident that you're counting a large percentage of the new cases, you can do appropriate contact tracing, and so on. Kansas is running at about a 15% rate of positive tests recently, which is high and suggests there may not be enough testing going on. The 10% number is just a rule of thumb; there's nothing magical about 10% specifically (9% is better capacity, 11% is worse capacity, etc...) But at 15% rate of positives, you have to start wondering how many infected people you're missing and simply don't know about. Being blind in that way makes it difficult to control outbreaks.

That said, folks have been under restriction for a number of weeks now, and the April 2020 jobs report comes out Friday; one assumes it'll be ugly. Staying safe from COVID doesn't do you much good if you run out of money and start going hungry.
  #196  
Old 05-06-2020, 12:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Urbanredneck View Post
You dont need a PHd to see the world has changed.
No, but this part,
Quote:
{...} It doesnt matter if we wait till the end of August there will be spikes up and down in different places.

But I think now they can be controlled.
demands more than your 'common sense'.

Now either you can support your claim that 'end of August spikes can be controlled' with some, I don't know, maybe, SCIENCE or stop treating this pandemic like it's something we can just pretend our way through.

CMC fnord!
  #197  
Old 05-06-2020, 02:16 PM
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Unclear if there's enough testing in Kansas to make this statement. Recent testing data is borderline at best; you need enough testing to be able to track your new cases and have some degree of confidence you're not failing to count a large number of infected. Kansas data here: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/kansas

General rule of thumb is you want your testing to show a 10% rate of positive cases or less. You want the rate of positive tests to be low compared to total tests; that way, you can be somewhat confident that you're counting a large percentage of the new cases, you can do appropriate contact tracing, and so on. Kansas is running at about a 15% rate of positive tests recently, which is high and suggests there may not be enough testing going on. The 10% number is just a rule of thumb; there's nothing magical about 10% specifically (9% is better capacity, 11% is worse capacity, etc...) But at 15% rate of positives, you have to start wondering how many infected people you're missing and simply don't know about. Being blind in that way makes it difficult to control outbreaks.

That said, folks have been under restriction for a number of weeks now, and the April 2020 jobs report comes out Friday; one assumes it'll be ugly. Staying safe from COVID doesn't do you much good if you run out of money and start going hungry.
Statewide that is true.

However my county, Johnson County, is currently at around 7%.

Now they are all over the map on testing. One day they might do 100 tests. The next 50 and so on. As I understand it they only test people showing symptoms.

Getting back to state, Kansas data is all messed up by the late testing and massive number of positives in places like Ford and Seward counties which just 2 weeks ago were almost none.

Plus often we are seeing positives are associated with just one particular business or location like an assisted living facility or a meat packing plant or in the case of Leavenworth county, a prison.

A big question is how should we or can we, evaluate data when its so thrown off by one particular place like a meatpacking plant showing almost all the positive cases?

Its even worse in South Dakota where in a state having 2700 cases, 2200 are from ONE county.
  #198  
Old 05-06-2020, 02:37 PM
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Its even worse in South Dakota where in a state having 2700 cases, 2200 are from ONE county.
How many in South Dakota have been tested? Without tests, how can we know the infection rates? My rural county of 40,000 non-prisoners* has 8 cases with 7 recoveries and no deaths - with a total of 525 tests by yesterday. That's 1.3% tested, hardly an informative sample. We just don't fucking know.

* Another 5,000 or so are in the state prison and they're not announcing anything.
  #199  
Old 05-06-2020, 03:10 PM
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The US nationally was at 5:1 ratio of tests to positive results.
Italy during its worst days was at 2:1.
  #200  
Old 05-06-2020, 03:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Urbanredneck View Post
As my area reopens I'm sure their will be some increase but I doubt we will have the huge spikes we had back in March.

For one, many stores have protections in place like barriers and are cleaning things more often. The most vulnerable in nursing homes are still under quarantine. People are wearing masks, using sanitizer, and practicing social distancing. Large gatherings are still prohibited.

Now hopefully we wont see the spikes at the meat packing plants anymore.

So while I see a spike, I dont see it to be as big.
For all I know, we go to the same Home Depot and shop at the same Wal-Mart, and get our gas at the same QT. And yes, while there are people wearing masks, it's half or less. Sometimes much less. Hell, I stopped at QT this morning to get gas and NOT ONE person going in or out was wearing a mask.
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