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  #51  
Old 03-19-2020, 09:50 PM
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The government will have to help people, obviously. It will cost billions and hurt the economy, theres no question about that. But the damage would be a fraction of what it would be if we try to keep the workforce operating at full capacity. But if we don't do it, millions will die and it will cost billions anyways.

I wonder -- are you willing to tell the posters here who are above 60 (20% chance of death if infected) or immunocompromised or otherwise vulnerable -- "sorry guys, some principals are just too important to break. We cant just give free money to those who need it because they should have been saving up! Wheres your personal responsibility? Tough luck -- we gotta make some tough decisions, and you're just not worth saving".
I'm not saying that. I think the discussion needs to be had instead of this "curve flattening" shit. All people are "worth" saving, but old people die from natural causes.

The question isn't whether people are worth saving. The question is whether an 85 year old would rather trash his grandchildren's future so he can live to age 88.

But again, we can't even mention it because of the hysterics that you are putting out in this thread.

Why don't we talk about banning cars under your statements?
  #52  
Old 03-19-2020, 09:53 PM
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I'm not saying that. I think the discussion needs to be had instead of this "curve flattening" shit. All people are "worth" saving, but old people die from natural causes.

The question isn't whether people are worth saving. The question is whether an 85 year old would rather trash his grandchildren's future so he can live to age 88.

But again, we can't even mention it because of the hysterics that you are putting out in this thread.
Hysterics, eh? Iíd like to see some detail on that trashing of grandchildrenís futures. Itís interesting how often letting some people die is so important to securing other peopleís grandchildrenís futures. But the how and why of it never gets deeper than broad platitudes.
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Last edited by Acsenray; 03-19-2020 at 09:57 PM.
  #53  
Old 03-19-2020, 10:01 PM
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Back when it was government death panels deciding it was time for grandma’s life support to be unplugged, it was outrageous, but now that it’s everyone having to pitch and suffer some hardship for the greater good, well, that’s just not a reasonable expectation.
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  #54  
Old 03-19-2020, 10:11 PM
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https://kmph.com/news/local/lockdown...in-place-order
  #55  
Old 03-19-2020, 10:17 PM
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Damn, edit wont work, for the above link:LOCKDOWN! Entire state of California now under "shelter in place" order
  #56  
Old 03-19-2020, 11:51 PM
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I'm not saying that. I think the discussion needs to be had instead of this "curve flattening" shit. All people are "worth" saving, but old people die from natural causes.

The question isn't whether people are worth saving. The question is whether an 85 year old would rather trash his grandchildren's future so he can live to age 88.

But again, we can't even mention it because of the hysterics that you are putting out in this thread.

Why don't we talk about banning cars under your statements?
"Please! Take grandpa! Take grandma! They've only got a couple years left anyhow - and they're the shit years, too. Just don't take MAH MONAHY!!"
  #57  
Old 03-20-2020, 12:06 AM
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Just who is going to be enforcing these mandates? How? What are the penalties for non-compliance? I do not see these things mentioned at all.

Businesses can be shut down or risk their state licensing, but you cannot actually make a private individual stay home.

A mandate without penalties is just a suggestion.
  #58  
Old 03-20-2020, 12:53 AM
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People will tolerate this as long as infections and death rates keep going up. Especially to where everyone knows someone who had covid 19 and died (that's a 2% fatality rate).

While I haven't run the numbers, cutting the military increases over the past 5 years, and reinstating taxes to where they were pre-Trump ought to cover that trillion dollar stimulus package.
  #59  
Old 03-20-2020, 07:15 AM
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Businesses can be shut down or risk their state licensing, but you cannot actually make a private individual stay home.

A mandate without penalties is just a suggestion.
And what about the homeless? I have not heard this addressed.
  #60  
Old 03-20-2020, 08:20 AM
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I'm not saying that. I think the discussion needs to be had instead of this "curve flattening" shit. All people are "worth" saving, but old people die from natural causes.
How would you make this kind of determination regarding who would have to die, though? Would it be some sort of... decision panel?

Quote:
The question isn't whether people are worth saving. The question is whether an 85 year old would rather trash his grandchildren's future so he can live to age 88.
The 2016 election suggests that many in that age bracket would trash their grandchildren's future in exchange for a tax cut that might not even benefit them.

Last edited by HMS Irruncible; 03-20-2020 at 08:23 AM.
  #61  
Old 03-20-2020, 08:23 AM
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And what about the homeless? I have not heard this addressed.
From the Office of CA Governor Gavin Newsom:

Governor Newsom Takes Emergency Actions & Authorizes $150 Million in Funding to Protect Homeless Californians from COVID-19

Quote:
SACRAMENTO Ė Governor Gavin Newsom today took a series of significant, additional actions to protect Californians experiencing homelessness from COVID-19. The State of California is providing emergency aid to local governments and implementing emergency protective measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 among this particularly vulnerable population, many of whom have no option to self-quarantine or isolate.

ďPeople experiencing homelessness are among the most vulnerable to the spread of COVID-19,Ē said Governor Newsom. ďCalifornia is deploying massive resources to get these vulnerable residents safely into shelter, removing regulatory barriers and securing trailers and hotels to provide immediate housing options for those most at risk. Helping these residents is critical to protecting public health, flattening the curve and slowing the spread of COVID-19.Ē

. . .

On Monday, the Governor issued an executive order that authorizes local governments to halt evictions for renters and homeowners, slows foreclosures, and protects against utility shutoffs for Californians affected by COVID-19. This order was in part a preventative measure to ensure that low-income Californians do not lose a safe roof over their head as a result of an eviction related to a loss of income or sickness due to COVID-19.
ETA: What they ought to have been doing for the homeless all along anyway.

Last edited by Senegoid; 03-20-2020 at 08:25 AM.
  #62  
Old 03-20-2020, 08:58 AM
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I hope thee kinds of measures become permanent.

Also I’m hoping for the death of the ultra-polluting and environment-destroying giant cruise ship industry.
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  #63  
Old 03-20-2020, 09:07 AM
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I'm not saying that. I think the discussion needs to be had instead of this "curve flattening" shit. All people are "worth" saving, but old people die from natural causes.
Let's say there's enough political will to let old people die. Hospitals are mandated to only reserve hospital beds to people who are younger than 70.

Do you think this is going to fix the crisis?

Do you think suddenly a bunch of hospital beds are going to be freed up?

I'm trying to appraise your level of understanding of this crisis.
  #64  
Old 03-20-2020, 05:09 PM
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Back when it was government death panels deciding it was time for grandmaís life support to be unplugged, it was outrageous, but now that itís everyone having to pitch and suffer some hardship for the greater good, well, thatís just not a reasonable expectation.
When grandma runs out of drugs, you must unplug.

If grandpa's cough is great, you must terminate.

If mommy has a fever, you had better leave her.

If daddy's eyes go dark, feed him to the sharks.

If sister is a Trumper, chain her to the bumper.
  #65  
Old 03-20-2020, 05:35 PM
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There must be 50 ways to grieve your mother.
  #66  
Old 03-20-2020, 06:30 PM
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Wow. That was amazing
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  #67  
Old 03-21-2020, 07:37 AM
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There must be 50 ways to grieve your mother.
Nicely done.
  #68  
Old 03-21-2020, 07:59 AM
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Purely anecdotal here, but I have a friend who posted on Facebook that he went out for a walk last night in his neighborhood, and didn't get far before he someone having a big cookout in their backyard. And then he saw someone else having a party on their porch. So, yeah, it looks like after about a week, people are saying "To hell with it."
  #69  
Old 03-21-2020, 08:25 AM
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Those morons get their names put on a list of people who are the last to get medical treatment and supplies.
  #70  
Old 03-21-2020, 11:39 AM
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Purely anecdotal here, but I have a friend who posted on Facebook that he went out for a walk last night in his neighborhood, and didn't get far before he someone having a big cookout in their backyard. And then he saw someone else having a party on their porch. So, yeah, it looks like after about a week, people are saying "To hell with it."
No way. You really think any of those people were self isolated 2 days ago?
  #71  
Old 03-21-2020, 05:33 PM
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We were just discussing the food issue. We have allergy concerns in the house, and need to sort our food ideas accordingly.

My family grew up hunting and fishing, and while I am now physically handicapped, mrAru isn't, nor are the 2 roomies. We have an assortment of gear - vermin rifles in .22, rifles with several types of ammo, shotguns with several gauges and types of ammo, and fishing rods and tidewater nets.

While there is not a legal hunting season running, squirrel are open season and fishing season opens in about 10 days. I know several areas that are currently having overpopulation issues with deer and rabbits, and I personally have no issue at the idea of poaching, but I would feel better if they would do some sort of opening of the season to allow subsistence hunting of the tastier critters. [not interested in skunk, coon and possum are ok but I prefer bunny] And let us discuss Canada goose .... they are effectively an overpopulated invasive species. I haz recipes for goose ...
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  #72  
Old 03-21-2020, 06:56 PM
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12-18 months of social distancing realistic?


Do people actually think this is sustainable? I think within a couple months is something I could see happening, although even that would have devastating impacts. Not to mention, the government would probably have to use dystopian levels of force to actually make it happen.

The damage to the economy is the most obvious, and I'm seeing some people being shamed and called "greedy fucks" for simply mentioning it and not agreeing to indefinite shutdown. But a severely damaged economy itself will cause massive suffering, if nothing else, for people not being able to provide for themselves.

Secondly, damage to mental and social health of citizenry. It's being trivialized in the rhetoric of, "Your grandparents fought a war, and you're simply being being asked to stay home." But it doesn't consider the fact that legitimate human interaction is an irreplaceable need for most. And this is not just at any other time, but in a time of great uncertainty and panic, where this sort of contact is even more so naturally sought out. Add in conditions like depression, anxiety, OCD, etc into the mix, and mental health professionals not being able to assist, and you really start having problems up to and including an increase in suicide rates.

Mind you, I'm not using these reasons to justify violating social distancing recommended measures or even advocate for others to do so, especially for now. I'm admittedly in a privileged position of being a college student living with my family who's pretty well-off. And I'm staying home with them. But I think there's a limit to how long realistically society as a whole will tolerate the implementation of such measures. Personally, my hunch is 6-8 weeks will be the breaking point in western societies.
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  #73  
Old 03-21-2020, 06:59 PM
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I think most people will be seriously burned out by the beginning of April, people are really going to suffer out there financially.
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Last edited by pool; 03-21-2020 at 07:00 PM.
  #74  
Old 03-21-2020, 07:06 PM
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Purely anecdotal here, but I have a friend who posted on Facebook that he went out for a walk last night in his neighborhood, and didn't get far before he someone having a big cookout in their backyard. And then he saw someone else having a party on their porch. So, yeah, it looks like after about a week, people are saying "To hell with it."
My mother is inviting a guy over for dinner tonight. She's known him like two weeks. Today she was bitching to me on the phone how tough it's been. It's been a WEEK.

My prediction that people would be okay with 3-4 weeks and then start fraying at the edges might have been way too high a guess. I was assuming people would start to panic based on the economic burden of all this. "Spoiled Boomer retirees" was a cohort I had not properly accounted for.
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Old 03-21-2020, 07:36 PM
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  #76  
Old 03-21-2020, 08:40 PM
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No, it's not sustainable, and it's worrying me that we're going into it without a clear sense of what the endgame is supposed to be. "Everybody stay home until we get a ramped-up testing program going and we can identify and isolate people who actually have this disease" = fine. "Everybody stay home and forego human contact for an indefinite length of time" is not going to work, no matter how zealously and enthusiastically people are pursuing it at the moment. (I suspect public opinion will shift against it as quickly and as violently as it has shifted toward it over the last ten days, as some of the real-world effects become apparent.)
  #77  
Old 03-21-2020, 09:23 PM
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That long a time period isnít needed. If everyone around the world stayed home for 3-4 months we would knock out the virus. It amazes me how even a few weeks seems to be an issue. From what I gather some people in Italy are still not participating in their lockdown despite the severity of the illness there. If people wonít agree to it when the medical system around them is falling apart, they probably never will.
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Old 03-21-2020, 09:27 PM
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The death rate for the population as a whole, if infected, is less than 1% (that's the number based on populations that have been extensively tested; the higher numbers you see bandied about are subject to a selection bias, because people with more severe symptoms are more likely to be tested). The people who die are biased strongly towards the old and those who have severe pre-existing health conditions. It would be a reasonable approximation to say that, for the most part, those who die from coronavirus are those who would only live about another year anyway.

I'm not saying that those deaths aren't tragic. Heck, when my grandmother died peacefully of natural causes and surrounded by family at the age of 93, that was tragic. But people dying a year earlier than they would have will not wreck the world economy, or have other significant second-order effects.

The measures put into place now will already have effects lasting for at least a decade. Kids are going to lose at least a month of schooling, and even if they come back this semester, any remaining educational time is going to be of severely diminished quality. It takes at least a couple of weeks to get students back up to speed after a break, and it's only going to be worse for a break that wasn't scheduled in advance.

Those months make a difference, all through a student's educational life. Even in high school, you can see differences in overall performance, based on where student ages fall relative to the cutoff date between the grades. All students who have lost school from this are going to perform more poorly than they should have, and that's going to especially make a difference in trained fields. Two or three decades from now, we might see a shortage of trained professionals. Like, say, doctors and epidemiologists. What happens then?
  #79  
Old 03-21-2020, 09:27 PM
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That long a time period isnít needed. If everyone around the world stayed home for 3-4 months we would knock out the virus. It amazes me how even a few weeks seems to be an issue. From what I gather some people in Italy are still not participating in their lockdown despite the severity of the illness there. If people wonít agree to it when the medical system around them is falling apart, they probably never will.
Thatís the problem. If it was actively followed by everyone, then it could be contained and eradicated on a much more reasonable timeframe. But instead, itís inevitably going to get half-assed, only marginally improve health outcomes, and still devastate the economy. The only positive outcome is if it buys enough time for a good treatment to come out in a few weeks.
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Old 03-21-2020, 09:29 PM
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No, it's not sustainable, and it's worrying me that we're going into it without a clear sense of what the endgame is supposed to be. "Everybody stay home until we get a ramped-up testing program going and we can identify and isolate people who actually have this disease" = fine.
I think everyone would be OK-ish with a message like, "We're going to stay home for three months as we try to increase our hospital bed capacity as much as possible. It's going to be a hard three months and everyone's going to have to make sacrifices on all fronts. We will all have to make some difficult choices. But if we all dig in for the next three months, we will likely have the infrastructure we need to go back to a state of near-normalcy."

We would be OK with this because there would be interim goals to assess progress with. At each presser, the president could announce how many hospital beds and ventilators had been added to the running total. The media could show footage of all the construction and then show footage of the hospitals filling with relieved and grateful patients. It would counterbalance the depressing death statistics we're almost certainly going to be bombarded with. And people would feel hopeful knowing that there was a hospital being built in their city or county. It might empower people to fundraise and bring additional resources to the table.

Right now we don't have any interim goals. The only statistics we hear are grim ones. And they are only going to get grimmer as this thing continues.
  #81  
Old 03-21-2020, 09:33 PM
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I think a lot of people are going to start seriously considering whether an economic depression is worth slowing down a virus that kills about 0.5% of the people who get it.

Yeah even at that number the numbers dead are still huge. 5 billion people on earth may be affected, which means 25 million deaths globally. But I think people are going to start seriously considering which one is the worst of the two scenarios. A global depression or 25-50 million elderly people dying. Assuming those are our only two options.
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Old 03-21-2020, 09:34 PM
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I should add, the unintended consequences of these quarantines and other measures can be incredibly complicated. It takes trained professionals decades of study to figure out all of the details. Which is why it's a good thing that we have those trained professionals, who have been studying it for decades, at places like the CDC.

And the CDC has not recommended most of the quarantine actions that have been taken. For instance, they only recommend closing a school if there's a diagnosis of a student or staff member.

Is it really safe, in a crisis, to ignore the people most qualified to give advice?
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Old 03-21-2020, 09:51 PM
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If we were just doing it on instructions, sure, I could see the problem. But people are also doing it because they're scared of contracting the disease. The reason people turned so violently towards it is fear and the need to be doing what they can to stop it.

So the only way I see it easing up is if the numbers of people who have it decrease. And then they'll increase again when there is a new outbreak.

But then that would be appropriate. There was a study from the UK saying that serial isolation is actually the most effective method, more effective than even longer isolation periods. Basically, when the outbreaks are contained, you relax the isolation, but bring it back with the inevitable outbreak. This still results in fewer people getting the disease overall, and keeps things spread out.

So, sure, isolating for the whole 18 months is unlikely to hold. But it won't have to, if we listen to the science.
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Old 03-21-2020, 10:24 PM
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I have merged two similar threads.

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  #85  
Old 03-21-2020, 10:34 PM
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That long a time period isnít needed. If everyone around the world stayed home for 3-4 months we would knock out the virus.
We'd knock out half the economy, too. Unemployment would exceed twenty percent; there would be severe shortages of rudimentary goods. "Everyone" is totally impossible, anyway, but even if we limit this to everyone except medical staff, cops and soldiers and the guys who keep electricity and water flowing, it'd blow the economy up.

Sending everyone home for four months would be a disaster as bad as a pandemic. A better strategy is needed.
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Old 03-21-2020, 11:03 PM
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it'd blow the economy up
Too late; it's blown up like Sgt. Hulka.
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Old 03-21-2020, 11:50 PM
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I think a lot of people are going to start seriously considering whether an economic depression is worth slowing down a virus that kills about 0.5% of the people who get it.
Why did events start shutting down before US quarantine orders were issued? Liability. Do you cancel or postpone and lose some money; or do you go ahead, suffer casualties, and get sued to hell, maybe with criminal charges too? A local low-life bar broke the governor's closure order; they lost their licence and lease and have a nice bright sheriff's tape across their door. How many business folk will risk total destruction for a violation?

IMHO lockdowns will be tolerated until businesses think they can escape punishment.
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Old 03-22-2020, 01:11 AM
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Secondly, damage to mental and social health of citizenry. It's being trivialized in the rhetoric of, "Your grandparents fought a war, and you're simply being being asked to stay home." But it doesn't consider the fact that legitimate human interaction is an irreplaceable need for most. And this is not just at any other time, but in a time of great uncertainty and panic, where this sort of contact is even more so naturally sought out.
This, exactly. I live alone, and haven't spoken face-to-face with another human for a week, except to say "thank you" at the supermarket. My local hangouts have closed. My place of business has closed. I have spoken with others on the telephone; but infrequently; and it doesn't match a face-to-face conversation. I talk to my cats more often than I usually would, simply to use my voice.

It may be true that my parents and grandparents fought wars, but they never had to do so without face-to-face contact with other human beings. I know that all these precautions, bannings, closures, and cancellations, are all for our good; but I am tempted to say, "Screw this, let's just go back to normal, and let the chips fall where they may." I'm old, and the chips may well fall on me, but fercryingoutloud, I'm not sure how much more I can take of this. I miss talking face-to-face with my friends.

Last edited by Spoons; 03-22-2020 at 01:14 AM.
  #89  
Old 03-22-2020, 01:25 AM
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Sending everyone home for four months would be a disaster as bad as a pandemic. A better strategy is needed.

Maybe gather everyone who is infected in unpopulated areas and nuke it?

Dude, right now anyone who can come up with a ....a "better strategy" is going to be richer than Bezos, Gates and Buffet, combined. The planets' brightest mind (the best men!) are on it. Its not like they have missed the obvious problems with the present approach.
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Old 03-22-2020, 01:30 AM
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I have merged two similar threads.

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Oh, well i won't start a new thread and will ask here. Its a couple of months from now, consider the following exchange.

Cop who has pulled driver over: "Where are you going"?
Driver: "What did you pull me over for? You don't have probable cause for anything."
Cop: "I'll ask one more time. Where are you going."
Driver: "Then i'll exercise my right to not speak"
Cop: "Out of the car, hands behind your back." (Applys handcuffs and places driver in back seat. Drives him downtown and charges him with breaking quarantine. Driver later says he was driving to grocery store, is told 'tough shit' shouldn't have been a smartass.)

Do you think the driver is out of line? The cop? Would you resist arrest?
  #91  
Old 03-22-2020, 01:31 AM
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Maybe gather everyone who is infected in unpopulated areas and nuke it?

Dude, right now anyone who can come up with a ....a "better strategy" is going to be richer than Bezos, Gates and Buffet, combined. The planets' brightest mind (the best men!) are on it. Its not like they have missed the obvious problems with the present approach.
My suggestion to open a restaurant called "The Immune Herd" staffed only with immunized people and allowing in only immunized people was met with....indifference.
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Old 03-22-2020, 08:15 AM
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Maybe gather everyone who is infected in unpopulated areas and nuke it?

Dude, right now anyone who can come up with a ....a "better strategy" is going to be richer than Bezos, Gates and Buffet, combined. The planets' brightest mind (the best men!) are on it. Its not like they have missed the obvious problems with the present approach.
South Korea is clearly doing a smarter job.
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  #93  
Old 03-22-2020, 08:18 AM
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The problem isn't in coming up with a better strategy. The problem is in getting people to listen to the better strategies. I've actually got people calling me a troll in another thread because I'm saying to follow the CDC guidelines (which are much less severe than what most people are doing).
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Old 03-22-2020, 08:33 AM
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The problem isn't in coming up with a better strategy. The problem is in getting people to listen to the better strategies. I've actually got people calling me a troll in another thread because I'm saying to follow the CDC guidelines (which are much less severe than what most people are doing).
A lot of people are still not taking it seriously. Last night our store was crowded again and the lines were long. At one point a foursome of folks (I am guessing husband, wife and two early teenage kids) made it to the front of the line and placed down their purchase: a single package of Klondike bars.

What would you do for a Klondike Bar? Catch or spread coronavirus? In normal times of course it is not unusual for several people to be out together shopping for one or two items. But I struggle to think of a reason why four people would be together in a crowded store to get one dessert. Do they not watch the news?
  #95  
Old 03-22-2020, 08:59 AM
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South Korea is clearly doing a smarter job.
One of the ways South Korea got ahead of it is that they have a law that allows unlicensed test kits to be used in a public health emergency. That's why they were able to do such high levels of testing right away.
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Old 03-22-2020, 10:25 AM
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Too late; it's blown up like Sgt. Hulka.
There is a difference between "recession" and "total collapse." This is going to be a bad, bed recession, but one was coming anyway. The economy in a recession still works. Food can be purchased. The electricity remains on. Water will still run into your house.
The apparatus of state works.

Have everyone stay home for six months. Those things will not be true.
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  #97  
Old 03-22-2020, 10:55 PM
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The Australian Prime Minister is telling his citizens to expect 6 months of restaurants, pubs, gyms, etc being closed.

This is starting to look frightening and as if it might actually be attempted to pull off.
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Last edited by R3d Anonymous; 03-22-2020 at 10:56 PM.
  #98  
Old 03-22-2020, 11:08 PM
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Look for Halloween to go bye-bye....but when they come after Thanksgiving and Christmas is when the riots start
  #99  
Old 03-23-2020, 01:51 AM
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Andrew Cuomo is saying 4, 6, 9 months.
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  #100  
Old 03-23-2020, 08:52 AM
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How long/much of a lockdown will people tolerate?


Apparently none at all, according to this CNN article, showing crowded beaches in California, and Florida boat owners having boat parties, in some cases "rafting" -- tying multiple boats together -- to have even bigger parties!
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