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Old 03-19-2020, 06:36 PM
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When the first inoculations for Covid-19 to cure or prevent the virus in 2021 will you be first?


Who will take a chance and be the first persons to receive the first shots to cure or prevent Covid-19, not due for at least another year which is Spring of 2021?
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Old 03-19-2020, 07:25 PM
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Me!! I want it now. I wish there was a trial going on near me, in fact. Id want to get injected with the trial vaccine.
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Old 03-19-2020, 07:26 PM
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Who will take a chance and be the first persons to receive the first shots to cure or prevent Covid-19, not due for at least another year which is Spring of 2021?
https://www.businessinsider.com/phot...vaccine-2020-3
Already begun.
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Old 03-19-2020, 07:26 PM
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Who will take a chance and be the first persons to receive the first shots to cure or prevent Covid-19, not due for at least another year which is Spring of 2021?
People are getting trial versions right now. By the time they go into full production it will have been heavily tested in thousands of people. I'd be first in line.
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Old 03-19-2020, 07:35 PM
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Presumably any vaccine will be offered first to people in the highest risk groups. You don't get to choose to be first in line.
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Old 03-19-2020, 10:02 PM
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I'm in a high-risk group. I'll be dead by then.

Last edited by panache45; 03-19-2020 at 10:03 PM.
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Old 03-19-2020, 10:05 PM
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One of my earliest memories is of being in a car with a batch of other little kids, all of us enroute to get the polio vaccine as soon as it became available.

Yup, I'll get this one as soon as it's on the market.
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Old 03-19-2020, 10:07 PM
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Presumably any vaccine will be offered first to people in the highest risk groups. You don't get to choose to be first in line.
Upvoted.
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Old 03-20-2020, 08:40 AM
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People are getting trial versions right now. By the time they go into full production it will have been heavily tested in thousands of people. I'd be first in line.
My concern is that this presumption that this will be heavily tested, is incorrect. This Moderna vaccine linked above has already cut corners; it has exactly zero efficacy data in animal models.

I'm an immunologist. I work in this field. My answer to this question is "it depends". Any vaccine that is available within the next 12-18 months is unlikely to have a sufficient amount of data around it that I would take it.
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Old 03-20-2020, 08:45 AM
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Hard question for me. I just turned 50, and have never had the flu, and thus never taken a flu shot. When I get sick, it’s basically always a sore throat, headache or cough, and I can’t remember the last time I had a significant fever. But I have no idea if that history helps at all in determining how susceptible I am to COVID-19. I guess I will just have to wait and see.
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Old 03-20-2020, 03:29 PM
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I'll get it as soon as I can. I'm ticking every box for lower-risk groups so far: young, healthy, female, type O blood. I won't push grandpa out of the way but I'll be next in line. I'm a big believer in vaccines as a general social necessity. Yes, there are risks, and for some vulnerable individuals the risks are too great. But for the rest of us, taking on those risks is the right thing to do.
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Old 03-20-2020, 03:42 PM
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Once it becomes widely recommended AND available, I'll get mine asap. I'm not shoving people out of the way though - if there are limited numbers to start with, others are going to be way more at-risk than I am (31 and in good health).
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Old 03-20-2020, 05:27 PM
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I will be first in line assuming I live so long. At 83 my chances of survival if I get it are poor.
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Old 03-20-2020, 05:29 PM
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I’d volunteer for the trial and I’d get a regular one as soon as reasonable.
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Old 03-20-2020, 05:30 PM
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Last. I don't trust the procedure that will certainly be rushed. Y'all gonna make some Resident Evil shit or that Stephen King short story where everyone became idiots.
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Old 03-20-2020, 05:39 PM
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I am such an oddball. I figure I will get the vaccine, like all such preventative medical procedures, and drugs when my physician advises me that it is available, and warranted. I suppose I could start checking Youtube, and Facebook for my medical decisions, but, well, I'm not all that modern.
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Old 03-20-2020, 05:40 PM
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Not me. If there's a limited supply, I'm not going to butt in line ahead of other people who need it more.
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Old 03-20-2020, 06:00 PM
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I will be first in line assuming I live so long. At 83 my chances of survival if I get it are poor.
Your chances of survival from the data so far for over 80s are 85%. Sure that's absolutely not a percentage you should be satisfied with but it's not as gloomy as you suggest. And if you don't have particular underlying health conditions it'll be into the mid/high 90s.
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Old 03-20-2020, 09:11 PM
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I'll get it as soon as I can. I'm ticking every box for lower-risk groups so far: young, healthy, female, type O blood. I won't push grandpa out of the way but I'll be next in line. I'm a big believer in vaccines as a general social necessity. Yes, there are risks, and for some vulnerable individuals the risks are too great. But for the rest of us, taking on those risks is the right thing to do.
I'm in most of the high-risk groups. Over 50, asthma, high blood pressure, type A blood. I'll be one of the first in line for the vaccine. After three months if I've had no bad effects then Celtling will get it.
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Old 03-20-2020, 09:37 PM
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According to the caption, that is a Phase 1 trial, which means they don't even care if it works, or expect it to; it's a rudimentary safety test. So that lady can't even expect to get immunity from this test.

I mean, it's progress. They're past the lab stage, at least. Quite some distance away though. Don't bother volunteering until Phase 3.
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Old 03-21-2020, 08:30 AM
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According to the caption, that is a Phase 1 trial, which means they don't even care if it works, or expect it to; it's a rudimentary safety test. So that lady can't even expect to get immunity from this test.

I mean, it's progress. They're past the lab stage, at least. Quite some distance away though. Don't bother volunteering until Phase 3.
They're not past the lab stage. They just skipped it. This went into P1 without a drop of animal data to suggest that this works. Phase 1 drugs are inherently risky, but they almost always have some efficacy data. There was been no preclinical derisking in this case.

Last edited by Fiveyearlurker; 03-21-2020 at 08:31 AM.
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Old 03-21-2020, 09:16 AM
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They're not past the lab stage. They just skipped it. This went into P1 without a drop of animal data to suggest that this works. Phase 1 drugs are inherently risky, but they almost always have some efficacy data. There was been no preclinical derisking in this case.
I am asking because I genuinely don't know and am curious.... how do you test the efficacy of a vaccine on a virus that only affects humans using animal testing?
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Old 03-21-2020, 11:44 AM
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I'm an immunologist. I work in this field. My answer to this question is "it depends". Any vaccine that is available within the next 12-18 months is unlikely to have a sufficient amount of data around it that I would take it.
This is the advice I will follow. "Early adopter" and "test rat" are not my middle names.
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Old 03-21-2020, 12:04 PM
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I am asking because I genuinely don't know and am curious.... how do you test the efficacy of a vaccine on a virus that only affects humans using animal testing?
Animal testing can prove some elements of safety and efficacy, but of course that's why you move on to clinical trials in humans.

An obvious difficult in vaccine testing is that you can't actually determine its true effectiveness until a substantial number of subjects have been given time to be exposed and to see what their rates of infection are (well, once we get into Phase II and III). With these tests they'll be measuring antibodies, of course, to estimate efficacy. But it'll be an estimate, and hell, they'll be running the numbers for DECADES in the postmarketing study.
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Old 03-21-2020, 01:18 PM
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Your chances of survival from the data so far for over 80s are 85%. Sure that's absolutely not a percentage you should be satisfied with but it's not as gloomy as you suggest. And if you don't have particular underlying health conditions it'll be into the mid/high 90s.


You've apparently seen separate percentages for being of given ages without other health problems, and for being in particular age groups with particular health problems. Could you link to that information?

I've seen lots of statistics giving percentage of complications by age, by heart condition, by diabetes, and so on. But I haven't seen anything clarifying to what extent the risk of age is due to the greater prevalence in older people of other health conditions; or what the percentages are for people who have multiple risks: i.e., if you're in your late 60's with a heart condition and controlled diabetes, what's the percentage risk for that combination? I presume one doesn't just add up the separate percentages.
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Old 03-21-2020, 01:20 PM
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I am asking because I genuinely don't know and am curious.... how do you test the efficacy of a vaccine on a virus that only affects humans using animal testing?
Find an animal that is affected is easiest way.

There is a humanized mouse model, where lung tissue from humans can be implanted to assess damage. Could be adapted here. Unfortunately, it requires fetal tissue which the Trump administration banned federal research on.

Last edited by Fiveyearlurker; 03-21-2020 at 01:22 PM.
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Old 03-22-2020, 08:29 AM
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When a tested and known-effective vaccine becomes available, there will be only a limited supply at first, such that not everyone will be able to get it right away. I expect that public health organizations will issue guidelines on who should be prioritized for vaccination, and I have no reason to expect that I would be on that list (or at least, I shouldn't be).

If I get vaccinated early, it would be as part of the experimentation phase. For that, they start with healthy volunteers, to see if they stay healthy (as opposed to suffering significant side effects). I might be willing to volunteer for such an experimental program, with appropriate compensation and under appropriate medical supervision.
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Old 03-22-2020, 08:29 AM
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When a tested and known-effective vaccine becomes available, there will be only a limited supply at first, such that not everyone will be able to get it right away. I expect that public health organizations will issue guidelines on who should be prioritized for vaccination, and I have no reason to expect that I would be on that list (or at least, I shouldn't be).

If I get vaccinated early, it would be as part of the experimentation phase. For that, they start with healthy volunteers, to see if they stay healthy (as opposed to suffering significant side effects). I might be willing to volunteer for such an experimental program, with appropriate compensation and under appropriate medical supervision.
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Old 03-22-2020, 09:10 AM
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I am asking because I genuinely don't know and am curious.... how do you test the efficacy of a vaccine on a virus that only affects humans using animal testing?
Humanized mice.
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