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Old 08-28-2019, 12:05 PM
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Another Senator Retires


Johnny Isaakson's out, looks like for real health reasons. And I can't blame him.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/28/polit...ire/index.html

Still, that's four R senators leaving - mostly non-vulnerable - and a slew of members of the house. 11 so far according to ballotpedia.com.

https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_U.S....ection_in_2020.

Senate
R - 4
D - 1

House
R - 11
D - 3

I dunno, it just seems early to get these sorts of retirements. Are they predicting another wave election? The lean on it, while it could just be random, seems to be indicating the sort of pattern that comes when elected officials anticipate a rough road to hoe come next E-Day.
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Old 08-28-2019, 12:54 PM
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I haven't heard any experts "predicting another wave election" so far, but it's certainly a positive sign for the D's and a negative one for the R's.
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:13 PM
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Yeah, I’d be surprised - based on history - if there were another wave election this soon. But it’s an indicator that something unusual is going on.

If the trend continues we should see about 10 more House members retiring before their primary filing deadlines. It’s something to watch.
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:39 PM
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Yeah, Iíd be surprised - based on history - if there were another wave election this soon.
I don't feel historical precedents are applicable to our current political situation.
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:43 PM
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I have no idea what will happen. I have hopes, but no expectations. And I think any prediction, even a prediction of what would be a surprise, is meaningless, until Nate Silver's 2020 model comes out.
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:54 PM
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This looks like Stacey Abrams' big opening.
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:59 PM
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She says she's not changing her focus.
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Old 08-28-2019, 04:02 PM
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Abrams was saying recently she would be honoured to be on the democratic ticket. I can see her holding out to be Biden's VP. If an old white male is at the top the party probably will feel obliged to add a new trailblazer - the first female VP.

Also I think cynically quite a few would like to be his VP with the possibility of being #47. Just taking into account his age.
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Old 08-28-2019, 04:58 PM
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Republicans retiring could mean that they're afraid that Democrats will win, or it could mean that they're afraid that they won't. These might be folks who aren't too fond of Trump, but had to pretend to like him or be crucified by their own party. Maybe they're tired of pretending, or don't want their legacies tied to his.

Or maybe it's just a matter of age-- Republicans tend to be older than Democrats, don't they?
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Old 08-28-2019, 05:13 PM
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It's not really that early in the election season. All but the most secure incumbents have to go out and raise funds for their primary elections. State party leaders are asking (politely, at this point) what their intentions are, so they can line up potential replacements, etc.

The big question won't be answered for six months or so. Namely, how Trumpy will the Republican candidates to replace these people be?
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Old 08-29-2019, 09:53 AM
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Today. The pressure is going to intensify, though.

Damn - Parkinson's is no way to go.
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Old 08-29-2019, 10:17 AM
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Yeah, I usually view congressional retirements with a jaded eye. But this appears to be a real health issue. Good luck to him.
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Old 08-29-2019, 01:34 PM
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Today. The pressure is going to intensify, though.
When I read about the retirement my first thought was this would be great opportunity for Democrats to pick up a seat if Abrams were to run, so I think you are correct there will be increased pressure for here to run.

If Abrams doesn’t run, is there any other GA Democrat who would have as good a chance to win this race?
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Old 08-29-2019, 02:57 PM
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... If Abrams doesn’t run, is there any other GA Democrat who would have as good a chance to win this race?
There was a whole slew of dem candidates for statewide office that narrowly lost alongside Abrams: Amico, Barrow, Bailey, etc.

I suspect any of them would be a better candidate after Abrams' embarrassing post-loss "I won" shenanigans.

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 08-29-2019 at 02:59 PM.
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Old 08-29-2019, 03:09 PM
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You're a Trump supporter, you don't get to use the word embarrassing anymore.
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Old 08-29-2019, 03:24 PM
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You're a Trump supporter, you don't get to use the word embarrassing anymore.
LOL. I can and will every time I feel so inclined.

Embarrassing, childish, infantile, stupid, shameful, degrading; take your pick. Abrams is a failed candidate who would only compound her failure by running again.
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Old 08-29-2019, 03:27 PM
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Every one of those words applies to Trump 1000% more. Take the plank out of your own eye before trying to point out a speck in someone else's. If I were you *I'd* be embarrassed to be so out of touch with reality.
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Old 08-29-2019, 03:30 PM
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Every one of those words applies to Trump 1000% more. Take the plank out of your own eye before trying to point out a speck in someone else's. If I were you *I'd* be embarrassed to be so out of touch with reality.
For starters, "failed candidate" doesn't apply to President Trump.

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 08-29-2019 at 03:30 PM.
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Old 08-29-2019, 03:32 PM
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For starters, "failed candidate" doesn't apply to President Trump.
Is "Failed President" that much better for you?
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Old 08-29-2019, 03:34 PM
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Is "Failed President" that much better for you?
Obama once said (to President Trump, ironically): "at least I will go down as a president"
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Old 08-29-2019, 04:43 PM
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Obama once said (to President Trump, ironically): "at least I will go down as a president"
And we now know Trump's response.

"I will go down as a President, and I will take the rest of the country with me."
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Old 08-29-2019, 05:01 PM
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Or maybe it's just a matter of age-- Republicans tend to be older than Democrats, don't they?
Not in the House. GOP caucus assignment rules for committees tend to push earlier retirements and more turnover. Once someone has been chair for six years they have to hand the committee leadership role off to someone else. That's pushed higher turnover in the House since it was implemented as Reps see their political power diminishing if they choose to stay on and be a committee backbencher. Democrats dangle the prospect of committee leadership out much later because of their rules where seniority dominates. A Democratic Rep has to wait a long time to get committee leadership and can keep it indefinitely.

Which is one of the many problems with just looking at numbers and trying to draw a big picture message without looking into the details of each and every retirement. 2018 was six years of GOP majority in the House. There would still have been a number of prominent GOP Reps that retired before that cycle if Trump was at 90% approval and they were expecting to win a supermajority. Looking for a deeper message out of those types of retirements isn't all that helpful. It's only really useful to look at the numbers of people that don't have an obvious underlying reason to retire.

If we look back Pre-Trump when emotions were running a little lower there's the example of John Kasich. He spent 18 years total in the House. The GOP changed the committee assignment rules while he was there. That got him the chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee after only 12 years in Congress. After six years in the role he retired and left politics for a decade. Compare that with the current Democratic chair Richard Neal. Neal only got the ranking member position in 2017 with 28 years of seniority. Neal is able to hold the chair or ranking minority member position indefinitely. Nobody was looking at Kasich's decision in 2000 as sending a broader message about the political environment. It was simply a normal decision for Republicans in the House.
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Old 08-29-2019, 08:24 PM
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When I read about the retirement my first thought was this would be great opportunity for Democrats to pick up a seat if Abrams were to run, so I think you are correct there will be increased pressure for here to run.

If Abrams doesn’t run, is there any other GA Democrat who would have as good a chance to win this race?
...aaaaand now that the attempt to derail this thread appears to have run its course is there anyone with a serious response to my question?

IOW, assuming Abrams doesn’t run is there another Georgia Democrat who would be as strong as she would likely be in the general?
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Old 08-29-2019, 09:28 PM
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LOL. I can and will every time I feel so inclined.

Embarrassing, childish, infantile, stupid, shameful, degrading; take your pick. Abrams is a failed candidate who would only compound her failure by running again.
Abrams lost the gubernatorial race by less than 50,000 votes, out of some four million cast.

That's less than two percent, in an election overseen by her opponent, who refused to resign from his position as Secretary of State, as is the norm. By a black woman. In a Deep South state that hasn't had a Democratic governor in this century, and hasn't elected a Democrat to a statewide office in about a decade. She's much less of a "failed candidate" than President Lost-The-Popular-Vote-By-Five-Million.

As to Kolak of Twilo's question, I don't know of any Georgia Dem who has the name recognition or fundraising power of Abrams. Maybe Stacey Evans, who gave Abrams a good run in the Democratic primary. She managed to get elected to the Georgia House as a Democrat, but from a mostly-red Cobb County suburban district. Unfortunately for her, her name is a disadvantage, as it sometimes caused her to be confused with Abrams.
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Last edited by Slow Moving Vehicle; 08-29-2019 at 09:31 PM.
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Old 08-29-2019, 10:54 PM
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I suspect that Kemp will be pragmatic enough to appoint Karen Handel to fill out Isakson's term, if only to get ahead of the issue of white women's votes. Jack Kingston is another possibility.

As for Democratic challengers in 2020, I'd be surprised if John Barrow and Jason Carter weren't on the ballot. My dream candidate* would be Sally Yates, but I'd be surprised if she WERE to run.

*I'd be happy to be the woman who votes for the woman who got fired for telling DJT no.
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Old 08-30-2019, 05:40 AM
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Moderating


No more comments about who is or should be embarrassed.

Take it to The BBQ Pit.

[ /Moderating ]
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Old 08-30-2019, 08:20 AM
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Last edited by Airbeck; 08-30-2019 at 08:21 AM.
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Old 08-30-2019, 08:29 AM
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Not good news that the poor fellow has serious health issues, but good news that there will be two GA Senate seats in play in 2020. I think GA is a lot more D-friendly than AL or MS or SC. It isn't to say that these will not be uphill battles, but these are not lost causes either. If Stacey Abrams could almost pull off a victory here in a race ran by her opponent in a non-presidential year, it seems to me that Ds could pick up at least one seat with the right candidates and if Biden (he's going to get the nomination) carries the state.
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Old 08-30-2019, 09:01 PM
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Today, Illinois 15th District Rep. John Shimkus (R) announced he won't seek reelection for a 13th term in Congress. Of course he wants to spend more time with his family. Too bad his three children are now adults.

Keep in mind that Shimkus was reelected in 2018 with 70% of the vote. Maybe he really is just tired out and wants to go home.
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Old 08-31-2019, 08:57 AM
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I have wondered why so many Republicans have decided to hang it up when it's not at all clear that they'd lose their seats. My WAG is that they feel constrained and that being a member of Congress, particularly as a member of Trump's party, doesn't give them the same sense of personal satisfaction that it once did. They're no longer Republican members of congress; they're members of a cult, and they know it and don't care for it. They can still have access to power as lobbyists, and maybe it's better for them to quit while they haven't made too many enemies.
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Old 08-31-2019, 02:38 PM
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Today, Illinois 15th District Rep. John Shimkus (R) announced he won't seek reelection for a 13th term in Congress. Of course he wants to spend more time with his family. Too bad his three children are now adults.

Keep in mind that Shimkus was reelected in 2018 with 70% of the vote. Maybe he really is just tired out and wants to go home.
Yeah, that isnít a competitive district and itís no fun being in the minority in the House.
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Old 08-31-2019, 02:47 PM
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I have wondered why so many Republicans have decided to hang it up when it's not at all clear that they'd lose their seats. My WAG is that they feel constrained and that being a member of Congress, particularly as a member of Trump's party, doesn't give them the same sense of personal satisfaction that it once did. They're no longer Republican members of congress; they're members of a cult, and they know it and don't care for it. They can still have access to power as lobbyists, and maybe it's better for them to quit while they haven't made too many enemies.
I think itís more that it just sucks being in the minority in the House and they can make more money in the private sector rather than voting NO all the time. Plus, most should surely know that Trump won by a miracle and miracles donít often recur. Being in the minority in the House as a minority party with a Democratic President doesnít sound like fun.
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Old 09-04-2019, 07:43 PM
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More GOP politicians bowing out: George Sensebrenner (R-WI) calls it quits after 41 years in the House.
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Sensenbrenner said in a statement that when he first began public service, “I said I would know when it was time to step back” and that he’d decided now was that time.

Two other House members also announced Wednesday they would not seek reelection next year: Bill Flores, R-Texas, and Susan Davis, D-Calif.
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Old 09-04-2019, 08:22 PM
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Jim not George.
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Old 09-04-2019, 09:43 PM
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A pretty safe GOP seat with a Cook's Partisan Index of R+13. He's been considered a middle of the road rank and file Republican who usually voted with his party.

Does someone more heavily playing the Trump line become the nominee for that seat?

Does any decent D try to make a go for it despite its long shot status?
  #36  
Old 09-05-2019, 07:20 PM
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When I read about the retirement my first thought was this would be great opportunity for Democrats to pick up a seat if Abrams were to run, so I think you are correct there will be increased pressure for here to run.

If Abrams doesnít run, is there any other GA Democrat who would have as good a chance to win this race?
Jimmy Carter, but I really doubt heíd be interested...
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