View Poll Results: Will Trump win in 2020?
Yes 136 47.06%
No 153 52.94%
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  #601  
Old 08-20-2019, 12:39 PM
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I was hoping it was leporiphobia. Fear of bunnies. What else is coming in March besides the Easter Bunny?
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  #602  
Old 08-20-2019, 12:39 PM
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Oh, nothing. Scaramooch is promoting his book and is merely making waves. I don't think he could make the case for March, either.
Mooch's prediction concerning March would only make sense if there were a significant primary challenge to Trump. Super Tuesday in 2020 is March 3. Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia will all hold their presidential primaries on that date.

But that is unlikely to happen. I am not sure that Trump's vaunted base is big enough to win him a second term, but it is damned sure big enough to win Republican primaries.
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  #603  
Old 08-20-2019, 12:48 PM
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I was hoping it was leporiphobia. Fear of bunnies. What else is coming in March besides the Easter Bunny?
(April 12th, 2020).
  #604  
Old 08-20-2019, 01:01 PM
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(April 12th, 2020).
See, I'll let you in on a little secret, okay?

Just because the big day may or may not be in April, the Easter Bunny gets started early.

He is creeping around, doing his thing.

Honest to God documentary on The REAL EASTER BUNNY
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  #605  
Old 09-04-2019, 08:47 AM
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The "need for chaos" drives thump supporters.

The Trump Voters Whose ‘Need for Chaos’ Obliterates Everything Else
Political nihilism is one of the president’s strongest weapons.
Quote:
Over the four years during which he has dominated American political life, nearly three of them as president, Donald Trump has set a match again and again to chaos-inducing issues like racial hostility, authoritarianism and white identity politics.

Last week, at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, the winner of the best paper award in the Political Psychology division was “A ‘Need for Chaos’ and the Sharing of Hostile Political Rumors in Advanced Democracies.”

The paper, which the award panel commended for its “ambitious scope, rigor, and creativity,” is the work of Michael Bang Petersen* and Mathias Osmundsen, both political scientists at Aarhus University in Denmark, and Kevin Arceneaux, a political scientist at Temple.

It argues that a segment of the American electorate that was once peripheral is drawn to “chaos incitement” and that this segment has gained decisive influence through the rise of social media.

“The rise of social media provides the public with unprecedented power to craft and share new information with each other,” they write. In the political arena, this technological transformation allows the transmission of a type of information that portrays “political candidates or groups negatively” and has “a low evidential basis.”** The “new information” transmitted on social media includes “conspiracy theories, fake news, discussions of political scandals and negative campaigns.”

The circulation of this type of information (which the authors label “hostile political rumors”) has been “linked to large-scale political outcomes within recent years such as the 2016 U.S. presidential election.”
...

The authors describe “chaos incitement” as a “strategy of last resort by marginalized status-seekers,” willing to adopt disruptive tactics. Trump, in turn, has consistently sought to strengthen the perception that America is in chaos, a perception that has enhanced his support while seeming to reinforce his claim that his predecessors, especially President Barack Obama, were failures.

Petersen, Osmundsen and Arceneaux find that those who meet their definition of having a “need for chaos” express that need by willingly spreading disinformation. Their goal is not to advance their own ideology but to undermine political elites, left and right, and to “mobilize others against politicians in general.” These disrupters do not “share rumors because they believe them to be true. For the core group, hostile political rumors are simply a tool to create havoc.”
...

While Trump’s focus on disorder and chaos worked to his advantage during the 2016 campaign, there is no guarantee that he will benefit from it when he is an incumbent seeking re-election.

As the 2018 election demonstrated, Trump’s personally chaotic approach to governance, his record of undermining relations with allies and strengthening ties to autocrats; his use of trade policy to heighten market insecurity; his aggression, his recklessness, his incessant lying; and his sneering contemptuous, bullying style, together worked against him and the Republican Party.
...

The phrase “like to see the democratic system go down” is chilling — and raises the question: How worried should we be about a fundamental threat to democracy from the apparently large numbers of Americans who embrace chaos as a way of expressing their discontent? Might Trump and his loyal supporters seek to bring down the system if he is defeated in 2020? What about later, if the damage he has inflicted on our customs and norms festers, eroding the invisible structures that underpin everything that actually makes America great?

A political leader who thrives on chaos, relishes disorder and governs on the principle of narcissistic self-interest is virtually certain to find defeat intolerable.
....
My bold.

This is a really long article, which I have not done justice to with my edits.

It supports what we've said all along: there is no strategy behind the president's so-called "policies." "Drain the swamp" in essence means "bring down the whole shootin' match!" (excuse the expression). It's the message of destruction that appeals to his base, not the promise that he is going to make life good for them. So when he doesn't deliver on The Good Life, that's okay, as long as the libruls are in tears at the end of it. He says he's never heard of a Category 5 storm?? HE IS a Category 5 storm. Destruction for all in his path as he blows back to where he came from, untouched and unchanged.


*Michael Bang Peterson-- is that the BEST researcher's name you've ever heard? He should just start writing it "Michael ! Peterson."

**“a low evidential basis” That's Scholar Talk for LIES.
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Last edited by ThelmaLou; 09-04-2019 at 08:49 AM.
  #606  
Old 09-04-2019, 09:33 AM
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Oh, nothing. Scaramooch is promoting his book and is merely making waves. I don't think he could make the case for March, either.
Mooch is a dick but maybe he's on to something. It is possible that the recession arrives in late 2019 or early 2020. Farmers and factory workers might be sick of taking a bullet for the madman's stupidity. Polls may show Biden on his way to a landslide. With that in his face, Donald may prefer resignation to a humiliating defeat. He may come up with butt spurs that prevent him from sitting in the Oval Office or say he needs to devote full time to supervising Tiffany's diet. We can always hope.
  #607  
Old 09-04-2019, 11:35 AM
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I was hoping it was leporiphobia. Fear of bunnies. What else is coming in March besides the Easter Bunny?
What is the technical term for someone who has a fear of people who have a fear of bunnies? They scare me, and I want to stay away from them!

Oh, and no, I don't think he will.
  #608  
Old 09-04-2019, 12:20 PM
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I will say, the signs of his growing decline can be seen in this comparison between 2015 and 2019 Dotard:

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1...433230349?s=19
  #609  
Old 09-04-2019, 01:35 PM
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I will say, the signs of his growing decline can be seen in this comparison between 2015 and 2019 Dotard:

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1...433230349?s=19
WHOA!! That is scary. The difference in his delivery, tone, and just ease in talking is shocking.
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  #610  
Old 09-04-2019, 01:48 PM
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By picking Hillary Clinton, the Democrats (National Committee or primary voters - you decide) chose one of only two people who could possibly lose to Trump. If Biden gets the nomination then you'll see who the second is.
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  #611  
Old 09-04-2019, 02:34 PM
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You mean the guy who is polling better than any other Democrat?
  #612  
Old 09-04-2019, 02:36 PM
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By picking Hillary Clinton, the Democrats (National Committee or primary voters - you decide) chose one of only two people who could possibly lose to Trump. If Biden gets the nomination then you'll see who the second is.
No, there's at least two others - Warren and Sanders.
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Old 09-04-2019, 02:45 PM
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By picking Hillary Clinton, the Democrats (National Committee or primary voters - you decide) chose one of only two people who could possibly lose to Trump. If Biden gets the nomination then you'll see who the second is.
Which is exactly what the Kremlin and the GOP wants us to believe.


We now know why Clinton lost and those mistakes wont and cant be repeated.

Many people are now aware of kremlin dis-information and Fake news, and Facebook, etc have been taking steps to stop it also.

Also, there wont be any Comey Memo for Biden.
  #614  
Old 09-04-2019, 02:48 PM
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No, there's at least two others - Warren and Sanders.

I love how you wave away the top three candidates.
  #615  
Old 09-04-2019, 02:55 PM
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No, there's at least two others - Warren and Sanders.
Oh and of course Beto and Booker and Pete and Julian and Ryan and Bullock can't win either. And there's no way Obama is gonna beat war hero John McCain.

Bottom line: no one's electable until they are. Often, there's just an unpredictable something on the campaign trail that puts someone over the top, regardless of what the "common sense" or their resume says.

I don't think most of these current candidates are unelectable against Trump*, and I say this as someone who, up until about a month ago, was convinced only a moderate white male who would appeal to blue collar white males and their families in the Industrial Midwest could win. Now I'm open to almost anything. I think almost any one of these candidates has potential to win, as long as they don't ignore the people Hillary ignored in 2016 (blue collar white males and their families in the Industrial Midwest).

*Except Marianne Williamson. She's a joke candidate. Andrew Yang's not much better.
  #616  
Old 09-04-2019, 03:23 PM
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Oh and of course Beto and Booker and Pete and Julian and Ryan and Bullock can't win either.
I would imagine most of those can. They don't have the decades of baggage that the others have and, related to that, aren't far too old for the job.

Since Kennedy, all Democratic Presidents (except Johnson, who wasn't elected for his first term) were relatively young, charismatic and from outside the party machine - or at least appeared that way. With the arguable exception of Carter in 1980, that can't be said of any Democratic losers. There's a pattern here.
  #617  
Old 09-04-2019, 03:44 PM
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Random internet person says certain candidates can't win! Film at 11!
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  #618  
Old 09-04-2019, 04:36 PM
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Random internet person says certain candidates can't win! Film at 11!
That was a constructive comment. Care to say what I've missed in the pattern I've seen over the past several decades?
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Old 09-04-2019, 04:49 PM
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I would imagine most of those can. They don't have the decades of baggage that the others have and, related to that, aren't far too old for the job.
...
But you see, in order not to get Swiftboated- baggage is necessary.

But please keep this up, you are making trump very happy indeed.

Last edited by DrDeth; 09-04-2019 at 04:50 PM.
  #620  
Old 09-04-2019, 04:53 PM
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That was a constructive comment....
Not in the least. It was purely 100% negative.

How about who you support and why?
  #621  
Old 09-04-2019, 04:54 PM
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That was a constructive comment. Care to say what I've missed in the pattern I've seen over the past several decades?
Such patterns are essentially meaningless when the sample size is in the single digits. All the Democratic candidate needs to do to win in is as good as Hillary plus a tiny bit more in 3 states. Maybe some of the candidates can or can't do that, but there's no way to know right now... any such prediction is just a wild guess. Until Nate Silver puts his model out, we just don't have any idea.
  #622  
Old 09-04-2019, 05:13 PM
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But please keep this up, you are making trump very happy indeed.
Yes, obviously he cares what an effectively neutral observer thinks.
  #623  
Old 09-04-2019, 05:20 PM
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Bottom line: no one's electable until they are. Often, there's just an unpredictable something on the campaign trail that puts someone over the top, regardless of what the "common sense" or their resume says.
I would put it somewhat differently. When both parties nominate a person who is unelectable, one of them will win anyway.
  #624  
Old 09-10-2019, 12:26 PM
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Trump's tariff war has hurt farmers, but according to a report from Reuters, hope that the farmers will turn against him at the ballot-box may be misplaced:

Quote:
Many farmers are angry, and some are directing their anger not at the Republican president, but at Washington’s bureaucracy.
...
Instead of directing their anger at Trump, dozens of farmers interviewed by Reuters blasted the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and other Washington institutions they believe are thwarting his true agenda. Unsubstantiated conspiracy theories involving USDA staff are circulating in farm country and gaining traction online....

Farmers are struggling with how to emotionally process their pain from the Trump administration’s policies, and anger at the USDA may be a coping mechanism, said Ted Matthews, a Minnesota psychologist who has spent 30 years counseling farmers and rural residents across the Midwest.

“The question I hear from farmers who voted for (Trump) is, ‘We believed him when he said he would help make the farm economy better, that we could save our farms. Now, who do we blame?’” Matthews said.

Many farmers told Reuters they intend to support Trump again in his re-election bid in 2020.

“It’s much easier to be angry at a faceless Washington bureaucracy than at the man you voted for,” said Jere Solvie, 69, grain and hog farmer from west-central Minnesota who voted for Trump and still supports him.
  #625  
Old 09-10-2019, 12:33 PM
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Enjoying your shit sandwiches, fellas? Eat up, don't be shy!
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Old 09-10-2019, 12:49 PM
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Enjoying your shit sandwiches, fellas? Eat up, don't be shy!
"This sandwich tastes like shit!"

"Maybe blame the guy who made it and sold it to you?"

"Nah. I'm going to blame "the government" And buy another sandwich from the same guy."
  #627  
Old 09-10-2019, 04:48 PM
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So, I'm going to say something stupid, something crazy, something that you'll want to bookmark and throw back at me in 15, 17 months or so as I'm possibly wrong, and can't be proven even if I'm correct.

But still going to say it anyway.

I think yesterday, Monday, August 5th 2019, is the day America decided "we can't re-elect this chump."

I heard it at home: "Toledo?" I heard it at work: "how's the Dow?" I heard it on the radio: "stop blaming video games". I read it in the paper: "China ag restrictions to hit TX hard". I hear it while shopping: "I'm nervous."

All this was yesterday. None of it the SDMB. None of it Twitter. Out of people's mouths.

And then, on the feed, there is this where the adults are coming out saying the future's so dark we gotta take our shades off:

It's Larry Summer, former Treasury Sec, saying:

We may well be at the most dangerous financial moment since the 2009 Financial Crisis with current developments between the US and China.

And then Fitch puts a very bearish signal on oil prices: https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_pri...59492-article/

There's a dawning understanding that the Brexit Bill is coming due soon and nobody knows how it's going to get paid: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ders-warn.html

Oh, China devalued its currency, leaving Munchkin to call them a currency manipulator.

https://twitter.com/DTR_Markets/stat...133664256?s=19


In earlier days this would have been a serious accusation with tons of paperwork being filed, nowadays his aides are likely having to scramble because of this bombshell. Or not, because it doesn't matter because almost everyone in this admin is Michael Scott. But I keep hearing the same drumbeat... Recession2020... recession2020... recession2020(or21!)... and we have Donald Trump still President.

And... yesterday, I think... America gave up on this guy. Oh, he might still win - the field is uneven and the game is being cooked - but it won't be a popular victory in any sense of the word.
I love replying to myself.

Trumps approval rating drops a whopping 6 points in a single month.

Quote:
Six in 10 Americans say a recession is likely in the next year and as many are concerned about higher prices because of the trade war with China, helping to knock 6 points off President Donald Trump’s job approval rating in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Trump fell from a career-high 44% approval in July to 38% now, a point off his career average, with 56% disapproving. His average rating since taking office remains the lowest on record for any modern president at a comparable point in his term, and he is the first never to have achieved majority approval.

....

Ratings of the U.S. economy overall, 56% positive, are down from 65% last fall in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. Most ominously, 60% see a recession as very or somewhat likely in the next year. That’s within sight of the 69% who said so in November 2007, in advance of the Great Recession.

In another measure, Trump gets far more criticism than credit for his economic stewardship. Americans by nearly a 3-1 margin, 43-16%, say his trade and economic policies have increased rather than decreased the chance of a recession in the next year.

...

Economic attitudes include a high degree of partisanship. Ninety% of Republicans rate the economy positively, compared with 52% of independents and 33% of Democrats. One in three Republicans sees a recession as very or somewhat likely in the next year; that rises to 60% of independents and 83% of Democrats.

That said, looking just at Republicans and Republican-leaning independents – “leaned Republicans” – shows the risk that negative economic attitudes pose to Trump. His approval rating is 58% among leaned Republicans who are concerned that the trade dispute with China will raise the price of things they buy, compared with 90% among those who are less worried about that outcome. There’s a similar gap among leaned Republicans based on whether or not they think a recession is more or less likely in the next year.

A statistical analysis called regression backs this result. Controlling for demographics, partisanship and political ideology, seeing a recession as more likely independently predicts lower approval for Trump, as do both being concerned about paying more because of the trade dispute with China and holding more negative views of the economy overall. Indeed, each of these alone, in its respective equation, is the single strongest predictor of Trump’s approval rating – more so than the customary prime factors in presidential approval, partisanship, ideology and race or ethnicity.

...

Two other shifts this month make Trump appear increasingly isolated in a core support group, white men who don’t have a college degree. They give him 69% approval. But he’s lost 12 points among non-college white women, to 42%; and Trump is down 15 points among college-educated white men, to 34%, a new low. They’re now as critical of the president as are college-educated white women.

Last edited by JohnT; 09-10-2019 at 04:50 PM.
  #628  
Old 09-10-2019, 11:11 PM
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"This sandwich tastes like shit!"

"Maybe blame the guy who made it and sold it to you?"

"Nah. I'm going to blame "the government" And buy another sandwich from the same guy."
Let us not forget that both shit and sandwiches existed under the Obama and Clinton administrations.
  #629  
Old 10-19-2019, 07:12 AM
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Today's reality:

Analysis: Trump leans on a changed GOP
Quote:
WASHINGTON — Donald Trump won the White House in large part by changing the mix of voters who make up the Republican Party. Now, as he faces the threat of impeachment, the party base he helped to create is proving to be his most important barrier to removal from office.

Mr. Trump accelerated the movement of working-class voters into the Republican Party, creating a GOP that now represents more middle- and lower-income Americans, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows. He has reframed much of the Republican agenda to appeal to these voters, particularly on trade, immigration and foreign affairs, in many cases upending 40 years of GOP policy.

And Mr. Trump’s combative personal style and dominating presence in the nation’s political discourse have created an unusually tight bond with the new GOP base.

The result: Mr. Trump heads into the impeachment inquiry—the most dangerous political waters of his presidency—with support from the vast majority of his party. Some 84% of Republicans approve of how Mr. Trump is handling his job, essentially unchanged from 86% just after he was sworn in, Journal/NBC News polling this month found. More than three-quarters of Republicans say Congress should abandon the impeachment investigation.

“This is Donald Trump’s party, and everyone knows it,” said Peter Wehner, a critic of the president who served in the Reagan and both Bush administrations.
....
The question is, what percent of the total electorate is that 86% in the phrase I've bolded. And will the Republicans be successful in blocking/limiting voters who oppose the party? (Assuming FPT* is the nominee, barring some unforseen--yet longed-for--event.)
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  #630  
Old 10-19-2019, 07:00 PM
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A Democrat wins in 2020 if they run a campaign that wins MI, PA, WI.

If they double-down on a hard left campaign, Trump unfortunately wins again.
  #631  
Old 10-19-2019, 08:07 PM
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The Democrats are squandering the meltdown of the Trump administration on internecine squabbling. So much
  #632  
Old 10-19-2019, 08:28 PM
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The Democrats are squandering the meltdown of the Trump administration on internecine squabbling. So much
The Democrats always squabble and argue.

They can't beat a corrupt businessman in the likes of a George Steinbrenner, who reinvented himself after the Yankees won the 1996, 1998-2000 World Series.

If Trump wins again in 2020, and he is a 2-term president, watch as he may be reinvented as the GOP looks for a 2024 standard-bearer.
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Old 10-19-2019, 08:37 PM
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I'm really baffled at the lack of (D) confidence in this thread. Trump is going down in a landslide. Whatever internecine squabbling there is among the D's right now is irrelevant; come August or October next year, the Democrats will be united like we haven't seen in 40+ years. Trump will be lucky to hit 200 electoral votes.
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Old 10-19-2019, 08:53 PM
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Trump could still win. There's not a shred of doubt in my mind he could.

I think people who look at his poll numbers and assume that a Dem is a shoe-in are ignoring the myriad possibilities in which this race could go sideways. For example, consider a third party run - or a third and fourth party run.

I know we all want "normal" again, but I fear that normal is gone - forever.
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Old 10-19-2019, 09:06 PM
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I'm really baffled at the lack of (D) confidence in this thread. Trump is going down in a landslide. Whatever internecine squabbling there is among the D's right now is irrelevant; come August or October next year, the Democrats will be united like we haven't seen in 40+ years. Trump will be lucky to hit 200 electoral votes.
Democrats HAVE to unite behind whatever candidate emerges from the current pileup. There can't be any spoilers (I'm lookin' at you, Bernie) to split the vote. Will that happen? Maybe not. Maybe people will still need to make some kind of statement with their vote instead of putting it behind anyone to beat FPT*.

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Trump could still win. There's not a shred of doubt in my mind he could....
Absolutely yes. FPT* could lose the popular vote by even more than he did before and still win the electoral college vote.
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  #636  
Old 10-20-2019, 07:24 AM
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I won't feel confident in Trump losing until his administration is blamed for a major failure that he can't hide from. The most likely event that fits that description would be a severe economic downturn, though if there's a major embarrassment as a result of his handling of the Middle Eastern situation, that might do the trick as well. But the average person needs to be angry at the incumbent in order for them to be motivated to oust him, and it's hard to be angry when there's record low unemployment and wage growth. If that changes, then Trump's fortunes change.

Trump is an intensely polarizing figure, but he can still win by Balkanizing the electorate.
  #637  
Old 10-20-2019, 08:42 AM
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I won't feel confident in Trump losing until his administration is blamed for a major failure that he can't hide from. The most likely event that fits that description would be a severe economic downturn, though if there's a major embarrassment as a result of his handling of the Middle Eastern situation, that might do the trick as well. But the average person needs to be angry at the incumbent in order for them to be motivated to oust him, and it's hard to be angry when there's record low unemployment and wage growth. If that changes, then Trump's fortunes change.

Trump is an intensely polarizing figure, but he can still win by Balkanizing the electorate.
One wonders. I was reading an article the other day (sorry, no cite, but prolly WaPo) about why farmers still support FPT*. They know he is hurting them economically, even potentially bankrupting them, but they love that he is trashing EPA regs. <shrug>

Storyboard for me how a hypothetical "severe economic downturn" would pull the rug out from under him. IOW how would it be clear that it was HIS admin's fault? I see him lying his way out of it as he goes from rally to rally around the country, blaming Dems, Hillary, Obama, and the birds in the trees.

Please, please, spell out how you see it happening... a story like that would make me so happy, but I can't picture it. And I want to, soooo bad.
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  #638  
Old 10-20-2019, 08:51 AM
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One wonders. I was reading an article the other day (sorry, no cite, but prolly WaPo) about why farmers still support FPT*. They know he is hurting them economically, even potentially bankrupting them, but they love that he is trashing EPA regs. <shrug>

Storyboard for me how a hypothetical "severe economic downturn" would pull the rug out from under him. IOW how would it be clear that it was HIS admin's fault? I see him lying his way out of it as he goes from rally to rally around the country, blaming Dems, Hillary, Obama, and the birds in the trees.

Please, please, spell out how you see it happening... a story like that would make me so happy, but I can't picture it. And I want to, soooo bad.
Follow-up question: let’s say that, shortly before the election, Trump gets the chance to name a replacement for Ginsburg or Breyer — or, since we’re apparently now living in a movie, both. Do his odds of re-election go down, or up?
  #639  
Old 10-20-2019, 09:07 AM
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One wonders. I was reading an article the other day (sorry, no cite, but prolly WaPo) about why farmers still support FPT*. They know he is hurting them economically, even potentially bankrupting them, but they love that he is trashing EPA regs. <shrug>

Storyboard for me how a hypothetical "severe economic downturn" would pull the rug out from under him. IOW how would it be clear that it was HIS admin's fault? I see him lying his way out of it as he goes from rally to rally around the country, blaming Dems, Hillary, Obama, and the birds in the trees.

Please, please, spell out how you see it happening... a story like that would make me so happy, but I can't picture it. And I want to, soooo bad.

I don't see the farmers voting for a Democrat; I could see farmers simply deciding "Fuck it, I'll sit this one out." That's what we must hope for.
  #640  
Old 10-20-2019, 09:34 AM
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Follow-up question: let’s say that, shortly before the election, Trump gets the chance to name a replacement for Ginsburg or Breyer — or, since we’re apparently now living in a movie, both. Do his odds of re-election go down, or up?
"Both"! You should write horror stories.

His chances of being elected would change, downward. Not because farmers or anyone who now supports Trump would switch and vote Democrat. Rather, they would have become sufficiently sated by the many and various conservative "wins" of the Trump Republicans to prefer to stay home and watch reruns of Duck Dynasty instead of putting on their pants and heading to the voting booth.

OTOH, Democrats and anti-Trumpists in general would become even further enraged and vote in record-breaking numbers. Then, following the parallel Democratic victory in the Senate, the new government would, with clear purpose and clear conscience, modify SCOTUS appointment laws.
  #641  
Old 10-20-2019, 11:42 AM
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If they double-down on a hard left campaign, Trump unfortunately wins again.
I'm really curious what you think "hard left" looks like. As far as I can see, the best America can muster is a slightly left-of-center candidate; many of the dems are centrist or center-right. You may not agree with political compass, but I throw it out as a starter: they have everyone but Sanders and Crazy Gabbard as right of center; Warren is quite close to center, and O'Rourke and Castro are well to the right.
  #642  
Old 10-20-2019, 01:51 PM
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Asahi, you wrote:
Quote:
I won't feel confident in Trump losing until his administration is blamed for a major failure that he can't hide from. The most likely event that fits that description would be a severe economic downturn
...
Then I asked:
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThelmaLou View Post
...
Storyboard for me how a hypothetical "severe economic downturn" would pull the rug out from under him. IOW how would it be clear that it was HIS admin's fault? I see him lying his way out of it as he goes from rally to rally around the country, blaming Dems, Hillary, Obama, and the birds in the trees.

Please, please, spell out how you see it happening...
Quote:
Originally Posted by asahi View Post
I don't see the farmers voting for a Democrat; I could see farmers simply deciding "Fuck it, I'll sit this one out." That's what we must hope for.
I agree. Forget the farmers. But I'm really interested in your thoughts on how a "severe economic downturn" would doom FPT*. Would it turn some Trumpniks against him? Or bring out to the polls people who have not voted in the past?

You've been saying for a long time that a change for the worse in the economy will be FPT's* downfall. I tend to agree, but I can't see specifically how it would play out. (My former work colleagues will tell you I'm aggravatingly literal-minded and detail oriented.) Look in your crystal ball and spell out how it COULD happen without DJT being able to squirm out from under the blame.
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  #643  
Old 10-20-2019, 02:02 PM
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Trump could still win. There's not a shred of doubt in my mind he could.

I think people who look at his poll numbers and assume that a Dem is a shoe-in are ignoring the myriad possibilities in which this race could go sideways. For example, consider a third party run - or a third and fourth party run.

I know we all want "normal" again, but I fear that normal is gone - forever.
“SHOO-in.” As in “Shoo! Get your ass in there, now!”

That is all.

Last edited by kaylasdad99; 10-20-2019 at 02:03 PM.
  #644  
Old 10-20-2019, 02:13 PM
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Democrats HAVE to unite behind whatever candidate emerges from the current pileup. There can't be any spoilers (I'm lookin' at you, Bernie) to split the vote. Will that happen? Maybe not. Maybe people will still need to make some kind of statement with their vote instead of putting it behind anyone to beat FPT*.

Absolutely yes. FPT* could lose the popular vote by even more than he did before and still win the electoral college vote.
Yep. Consider California as having, say 30,000,000 eligible voters. 29,999,951 vote for the Democratic candidate. EVERY OTHER STATE has a voter turnout of 3. The America-hating fuckstick wins each of those by 2 votes to 1. Popular vote is 30,000,000 to 147. Electoral vote count is 483-55 in favor of the America-hating fuckstick.
  #645  
Old 10-20-2019, 02:18 PM
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Follow-up question: let’s say that, shortly before the election, Trump gets the chance to name a replacement for Ginsburg or Breyer — or, since we’re apparently now living in a movie, both. Do his odds of re-election go down, or up?
Quote:
Originally Posted by KarlGauss View Post
"Both"! You should write horror stories.
In real life, he’s Dean Koontz.
  #646  
Old 10-20-2019, 02:39 PM
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“SHOO-in.” As in “Shoo! Get your ass in there, now!”

That is all.
<Doing my best Mulvaney impersonation>

That's what I wrote! I never wrote shoe-in, and I really hope the media pays attention this time!
  #647  
Old 10-20-2019, 02:48 PM
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Asahi, you wrote: Then I asked:

I agree. Forget the farmers. But I'm really interested in your thoughts on how a "severe economic downturn" would doom FPT*. Would it turn some Trumpniks against him? Or bring out to the polls people who have not voted in the past?

You've been saying for a long time that a change for the worse in the economy will be FPT's* downfall. I tend to agree, but I can't see specifically how it would play out. (My former work colleagues will tell you I'm aggravatingly literal-minded and detail oriented.) Look in your crystal ball and spell out how it COULD happen without DJT being able to squirm out from under the blame.
I think that it really depends on how severe and sudden the downturn is, and if you're asking whether I believe we need a recession to remove this guy, my answer is unfortunately yes. I think that is our best chance to get him out of power. I think the average voter is too confused and ignorant to understand even blatant corruption and they can't find Ukraine and Syria on a map. The only sure way that the country turns on him is if they begin to feel the direct consequences of his policies.

So if there's a significant downturn in the economy, sure, he'll still have his supporters, but they want be as enthusiastically behind him. Those who want him out of power will be more motivated to show up at the polls. That's what it comes down to.
  #648  
Old 10-20-2019, 03:50 PM
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I'm really curious what you think "hard left" looks like. As far as I can see, the best America can muster is a slightly left-of-center candidate; many of the dems are centrist or center-right. You may not agree with political compass, but I throw it out as a starter: they have everyone but Sanders and Crazy Gabbard as right of center; Warren is quite close to center, and O'Rourke and Castro are well to the right.
Remember that to half the country "not throwing kids in cages" and "not conspiring with an enemy nation to steal a second election" are considered hard-left positions.
  #649  
Old 10-20-2019, 03:58 PM
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Too late to edit: In a world where batshit insane candidates like Paul Ryan and Ted Cruz are considered "moderates," the ability to make distinctions between the positions on those on the left is clearly lost. By today's standards, Ronald Reagan would be a hard left liberal. The Overton Window has moved so far to the right it's now on a house in another neighborhood.
  #650  
Old 10-20-2019, 05:57 PM
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Full disclosure: I haven't voted yet - because I honestly don't know. 2020 will be hard to predict, but my prediction is that if the economy is still this good next year, Jesus could run as a Democrat and Trump will find a way to pull off a squeaker. If the economy totally tanks, Antonio Brown or Vontaze Burfict could run as a Democrat and win.
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