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Old 09-17-2019, 02:42 PM
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2019 Israeli election


Here's an update: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...antz-1.7854652

Per exit polling, Netanyahu's right-wing block has lost seats since the last election, if I'm reading it right. The moderate/liberal "Blue and White" party will have more than Likud, with no one having a majority.

Am I reading this right, and if so, what does this mean? Also, feel free to talk about the election in general in this thread.
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Old 09-17-2019, 04:40 PM
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You're reading it right, but it's what the exit polls show, not an official result. We will know more soon.
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Old 09-17-2019, 04:54 PM
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Yeah, we've been burned too many times to say anything before we get actual results.
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Old 09-17-2019, 05:08 PM
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Even assuming the results DO hold, it's unclear who would be prime minister. If Likud can get enough allies together, they can still build a coalition, but that's looking less and less likely. Lieberman (the leader of a smaller party called Israel Beitanu) is apparently trying to broker a centrist alliance between Likud and Blue White, and he might end up with enough votes to force the issue... he's stated that his main goal is to push the religious parties out of any coalition that forms.
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Old 09-17-2019, 06:33 PM
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How long until the official counts start coming in?
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Old 09-17-2019, 06:49 PM
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Even assuming the results DO hold, it's unclear who would be prime minister.
Hard to overstate the relevance of this point iiandyiii.

This is the second election of the year. Netanyahu was generally expected to be able to form a coalition government out of the first results. He couldn't. That's why they held this election. Welcome to the joys of parliamentary systems with proportional representation. Israel's system even has a relatively low threshold for small parties to win seats in the Knesset; no party has ever won a majority of seats. The election results are just a starting point for the process of trying to form a government. Nothing says anyone, let alone Netanyahu, will succeed at forming a government after this election either.

Last edited by DinoR; 09-17-2019 at 06:50 PM.
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Old 09-17-2019, 08:43 PM
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Why are the results taking so long? When will they be announced?
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Old 09-17-2019, 08:51 PM
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Why are the results taking so long? When will they be announced?
Cite
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Counting votes is a laborious process in Israel. There is no electronic voting, and paper ballots are counted by hand, one by one, with observers of each political party observing. The final count is unlikely to be certified for several days.
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Old 09-17-2019, 08:57 PM
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Counting votes is a laborious process in Israel. There is no electronic voting, and paper ballots are counted by hand, one by one, with observers of each political party observing. The final count is unlikely to be certified for several days.
All federal and provincial elections in Canada are paper ballots, hand counted. They don't take several days to count. I can only imagine they need to be more careful in Israel because of the importance of minor party votes.

Last edited by CarnalK; 09-17-2019 at 09:01 PM.
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Old 09-17-2019, 09:17 PM
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Yeah, we've been burned too many times to say anything before we get actual results.
But for the sake of discussion assume Haaretz's current estimates ... what would a Kahol Lavan led coalition potentially look like and how do they get there? What are the dynamics of cobbling together the disparate other players? At most recent numbers Kahol Lavan + Joint Alliance +Democratic Union + Labor (assuming all in on the coexisting together unity deal) still come up short. Would Yisrael Beiteinu be able to coexist in such a coalition? What would be the price? Would just being rid of Bibi be enough?

Educate us please! We be ignorant! Well me anyway ...
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Old 09-17-2019, 11:08 PM
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All federal and provincial elections in Canada are paper ballots, hand counted. They don't take several days to count. I can only imagine they need to be more careful in Israel because of the importance of minor party votes.
Canada (like the US and the UK) uses the first-past-the-post system, which is quick to count because the choice a voter can express is very limited and each ballot contains relatively little information. Moreover some ballots will, in practice, have much greater bearing on the overall outcome than others and, if desired, counting procedures can prioritise the processing of these ballots, resulting in an even quicker answer to the question "which party has won?"

With at least some proportional representation systems voters can express much more sophisticated choices and each individual ballot contains much more information. Different items of information on the ballot may be relevant at different points in the process, so ballots may need to be examined more than once. And in general all ballots will have more nearly equal significance to the outcome, so there is less opportunity to prioritise the processing of the ballots that are more likely to determine the overall outcome.
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Old 09-18-2019, 12:51 AM
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Why are the results taking so long? When will they be announced?
Remember that in Israel, even after the official results are announced, it will take another 30 days before we know who won.


(In case you don't know, the process is as follows:
The president of the country is a minor, ceremonial office, except for one crucial function, which he will carry out this week: he officially meets with each party after the election and asks them to recommend one person who they wish to see as the next Prime Minister (i.e either Bibi, or Gantz).

A few days later, the president makes his decision, and officially declares that he will "impose the duty" of creating a government on Bibi, or on Gantz.
Bibi or Gantz than has 30 days to negotiate with all the other parties and try to convince them to join the new government, with him as the big boss.

Last April, for the first time in Israeli history, Bibi failed in those negotiations, and so new elections were called.)

Last edited by chappachula; 09-18-2019 at 12:54 AM.
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Old 09-18-2019, 01:57 AM
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Remember that in Israel, even after the official results are announced, it will take another 30 days before we know who won.


(In case you don't know, the process is as follows:
The president of the country is a minor, ceremonial office, except for one crucial function, which he will carry out this week: he officially meets with each party after the election and asks them to recommend one person who they wish to see as the next Prime Minister (i.e either Bibi, or Gantz).

A few days later, the president makes his decision, and officially declares that he will "impose the duty" of creating a government on Bibi, or on Gantz.
Bibi or Gantz than has 30 days to negotiate with all the other parties and try to convince them to join the new government, with him as the big boss.

Last April, for the first time in Israeli history, Bibi failed in those negotiations, and so new elections were called.)
Note that tradition demands that the President offer the job to the person receiving the largest number of recommendations, even though he has no actual legal obligation to do so. President Rivlin tends to do things by the book.

That said, being tasked with assembling the government does not mean you'll succeed in securing 61 votes, as Bibi found out last fall. The pundits are saying that in fact, it would be better for either Bibi or Gantz not to receive the recommendations first, because it would put either of them in a much better negotiating position after the other guy fails.

Let's just say, there's reason the term "Mexican Standoff" has entered the Israeli lexicon this morning.

Last edited by Alessan; 09-18-2019 at 01:59 AM.
  #14  
Old 09-18-2019, 04:34 AM
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Alessan, what are your feelings on Ayman Odeh? What is the broader Israeli opinion, in your understanding? Is there any chance of Blue and White forming an alliance with the Joint List? If not, why is this anathema?

Last edited by iiandyiiii; 09-18-2019 at 04:34 AM.
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Old 09-18-2019, 09:21 AM
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Alessan, what are your feelings on Ayman Odeh? What is the broader Israeli opinion, in your understanding? Is there any chance of Blue and White forming an alliance with the Joint List? If not, why is this anathema?
The reasons exist, but they're moot at this time. B&W plus all the Left parties plus the Arabs don't have a majority. They need Lieberman. And while Lieberman is allied with the left on religious/secular issues, he and his party are hard right on security issues. It's hard to imagine Lieberman and the left in the same coalition, and virtually inconceivable that he could join with the Arab List.

What Lieberman wants (or at least claims to want) is a unity government with B&W and Likud. One problem here that the Likud won't join with anyone who won't support immunizing Bibi from criminal charges, which B&W say is a non-starter for them.
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Old 09-20-2019, 10:46 AM
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The big problem with Joint List is that you've got both secular, atheist Arabs who want what's best for Arabs living in Israel, and you've got Islamists who quite literally don't think Israel should exist, and everything in between. Even within the union, that's led to issues in the past - many in Odeh's party, Hadash, worried that this joint list party wouldn't have as firm a stance on, say, gender equality.

Long term, my biggest hope is that the religious right and Islamist parties both fade away, the secular Arabs can join with the secular Left, and together they can finally come up with a peaceful resolution to the whole shebang.

Right now, though, I think a centrist coalition led by Blue White, with Israel Beitanu and Likud, is the best way to move forward without Bibi (I hope Blue White sticks to their guns and demands he leaves) and without the religious parties.

Last edited by Babale; 09-20-2019 at 10:47 AM.
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Old 09-25-2019, 12:05 PM
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Looks like Netanyahu will get to build a coalition after all. Or at least, try -- Israeli media is reporting that the president picked him to build a government, but we will see if he can. Blue White pledged that they won't join a government led by Netanyahu, and Israel Beitanu has said they won't joint with the religious right. If both of those pledges hold true (and we all know what politician pledges are worth), then I don't see how Netanyahu has a better shot success than he did last time.
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Old 09-25-2019, 12:23 PM
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A higher up in Blue White says, (my own translation here), "This negotiation [for the creation of a Center coalition with Blue White, Israel Beitanu, and Likud] is entirely Bibi's farce; as soon as he realized that we would not let him be prime minister, he moved on to the next election cycle. He's just trying to pass the blame on to us."
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Old 09-26-2019, 07:49 AM
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Assuming Bibi fails again to build a ruling majority - does Benny get a chance to try or another round of elections?
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Old 09-26-2019, 08:30 AM
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Assuming Bibi fails again to build a ruling majority - does Benny get a chance to try or another round of elections?
Bibi has 28 days to form a government; the President may extend the period by up to 14 days, but probably won't. After that, the President can offer the job to someone else - namely, to Gantz, as the person with the second-largest number of recommendations - who in turn has 28 days of his own (no extensions). After that, it gets weird: the President makes an open casting call to the Knesset, which means that anyone who can get 61 signatures gets the job. If no-one can do that in 21 days, new elections are called.

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Old 09-26-2019, 09:20 AM
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Thanks.
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Old 10-02-2019, 03:59 AM
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Unless Bibi and Gantz come to their senses and form some kind of unity government, I can see Israel going to yet another election. I'm not even sure I'll vote again. I don't like either one, and Bibi is facing possible criminal indictments in the very near future.
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Old 10-02-2019, 04:45 AM
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Unless Bibi and Gantz come to their senses and form some kind of unity government, I can see Israel going to yet another election. I'm not even sure I'll vote again. I don't like either one, and Bibi is facing possible criminal indictments in the very near future.
We'll see what happens when Rubin gives the mandate to Gantz and it's the Likud's turn to blink. Bibi may want another election, but I don't think his party does.
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Old 10-02-2019, 05:08 AM
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Plus, I want to see if any transcriptions of embarrassing calls between Bibi and Trump pop up. That would be awesome.
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Old 10-02-2019, 02:45 PM
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Plus, I want to see if any transcriptions of embarrassing calls between Bibi and Trump pop up. That would be awesome.
Oh my, YES. I'd drink a very large glass of arak in celebration.

May Eretz Yisrael have a sweet and largely Bibi-free 5780.
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Old 10-03-2019, 07:15 AM
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Strange things are afoot at the Circle-K.
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Old 10-03-2019, 07:30 AM
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Strange things are afoot at the Circle-K.
Care to elaborate (I'm assuming that's the knesset)?

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Old 10-07-2019, 12:58 PM
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Looks like Netanyahu will get to build a coalition after all. Or at least, try -- Israeli media is reporting that the president picked him to build a government, but we will see if he can. Blue White pledged that they won't join a government led by Netanyahu, and Israel Beitanu has said they won't joint with the religious right. If both of those pledges hold true (and we all know what politician pledges are worth), then I don't see how Netanyahu has a better shot success than he did last time.
The apartheid state of Israel's dancing and feckless footwork is a delight to hear of.
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Old 10-08-2019, 09:20 PM
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So from a few days back ...
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Lieberman emphasized that “if there is no breakthrough between the Likud and Blue and White by Yom Kippur [Wednesday, Oct. 9], Yisrael Beiteinu will make its own offer to both of the factions. At any rate, after Yom Kippur, we will enter any effort to form a government in high gear.”

He added that “even if a third election is held, the situation on the political map will not significantly change, and that is why we need to … leave personal considerations and egos aside.”
Yom Tov y'all. What sort of offer will he be making you think?
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Old 10-09-2019, 11:26 PM
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https://m.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Av...ernment-604117

So he’d have it be the three parties with no Arab or ultra religious parties. Rotate Bibi and Benny with Bibi first to step down when indicted.

Likely?
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Old 10-10-2019, 12:54 AM
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So hed have it be the three parties with no Arab or ultra religious parties. Rotate Bibi and Benny with Bibi first to step down when indicted.
Likely?
This would form a stable government.
This would have the support of the majority of Israelis voters.
This is clearly what is best for the country.
This is the only logical solution.

Therefore, it simply will not happen.
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Old 10-10-2019, 01:48 AM
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Also, nobody trusts Bibi to actually step down.
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