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Old 10-18-2018, 04:35 PM
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Has Susan Collins destroyed her chances in 2020?


As one of the two rational voices in the Republican Party (along with Lisa Murkowski), Susan Collins decided to do the wrong thing and vote to confirm Justice Kavanaugh. Then she doubled-down and gave a speech saying as long as you're not convicted of a crime then you should be confirmed as a SCOTUS justice.

Now she may be the most hated person in Maine and any dream of her running against Trump in 2020 is gone AND there is the possibility she won't be re-elected as Senator from Maine.

Did this one stance cost her her political future?
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Old 10-18-2018, 04:51 PM
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I hope so. She's never been the moderate she's claimed to be, and this vote made that clear for all to see.
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Old 10-18-2018, 04:56 PM
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... Now she may be the most hated person in Maine ...
Is there any data to support this opinion?

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... any dream of her running against Trump in 2020 is gone ...
Was this a dream she had? Or was it your dream? This is literally the first mention I've heard of any notion that Collins might run against Trump in 2020.

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... there is the possibility she won't be re-elected as Senator from Maine. ...
There is always the possibility, but do you consider this the most likely outcome?

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... Did this one stance cost her her political future?
I doubt it.
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Old 10-18-2018, 05:07 PM
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She's done and Cory Gardner is done.
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Old 10-18-2018, 05:09 PM
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As one of the two rational voices in the Republican Party (along with Lisa Murkowski), Susan Collins decided to do the wrong thing and vote to confirm Justice Kavanaugh. Then she doubled-down and gave a speech saying as long as you're not convicted of a crime then you should be confirmed as a SCOTUS justice.

Now she may be the most hated person in Maine and any dream of her running against Trump in 2020 is gone AND there is the possibility she won't be re-elected as Senator from Maine.

Did this one stance cost her her political future?
Doesn't Maine have a pretty solid conservative governor? It seems like the people of Maine vote much on personality and not politics.
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Old 10-18-2018, 05:13 PM
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I like how "batshit crazy" is now indistinguishable from "solid conservative."
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Old 10-18-2018, 05:14 PM
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Doesn't Maine have a pretty solid conservative governor? It seems like the people of Maine vote much on personality and not politics.
He first won the office 2010 with 38.1% of the vote.
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Old 10-18-2018, 05:19 PM
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He first won the office 2010 with 38.1% of the vote.
The people of Maine had four FIVE(!) different choices and they picked Governor LePage.

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 10-18-2018 at 05:20 PM.
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Old 10-18-2018, 05:23 PM
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He first won the office 2010 with 38.1% of the vote.
So what? He was in a 3 way race and also won reelection in 2014. Clinton got around 40% of the vote in 1992 in a 3 way race.

My point was that Maine is not such a hard core liberal state. Trump won an EV there and the state was fairly close. It elects a diversity of candidates from LePage to Collins to King. I'm not seeing how Collins' vote for Kavanaugh makes her toast. If that was the case, then LePage would have never had a chance.
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Old 10-18-2018, 05:25 PM
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As one of the two rational voices in the Republican Party (along with Lisa Murkowski), Susan Collins decided to do the wrong thing and vote to confirm Justice Kavanaugh. Then she doubled-down and gave a speech saying as long as you're not convicted of a crime then you should be confirmed as a SCOTUS justice.
I listened to the entire speech and I think unlike quite a few in the process, she treated both Dr. Ford and the accused with respect, sincerity, and dignity. She did omit the mention of some things, like Kavanaugh's conspiracy peddling. If she has any qualms toward the conspiracy-minded running rampant in the GOP in a way that would be affecting her career choices, I didn't see any evidence here.
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Old 10-18-2018, 05:30 PM
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Before you can run in the general election you generally have to win your party's primary election. If she have voted against Kavanaugh she would probably have had very strong competition in the Republican primary.
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Old 10-18-2018, 05:42 PM
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Before you can run in the general election you generally have to win your party's primary election. If she have voted against Kavanaugh she would probably have had very strong competition in the Republican primary.
And, per wiki, last time around she beat the Democrat 68.4% to 31.6%.
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Old 10-18-2018, 05:49 PM
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I listened to the entire speech and I think unlike quite a few in the process, she treated both Dr. Ford and the accused with respect, sincerity, and dignity. She did omit the mention of some things, like Kavanaugh's conspiracy peddling. If she has any qualms toward the conspiracy-minded running rampant in the GOP in a way that would be affecting her career choices, I didn't see any evidence here.
That speech was the final straw for me. She said that the burden of proof of his guilt was not as high as "beyond a reasonable doubt," but rather "more likely than not. So she takes the word of a man who has lied multiple times during the process, and has every reason to lie, vs. a woman who has no reason to lie. If that isn't an insult to women I don't know what is. She'd have been so much better off not making the burden of proof argument at all.
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Old 10-18-2018, 05:54 PM
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That speech was the final straw for me. She said that the burden of proof of his guilt was not as high as "beyond a reasonable doubt," but rather "more likely than not. So she takes the word of a man who has lied multiple times during the process, and has every reason to lie, vs. a woman who has no reason to lie. If that isn't an insult to women I don't know what is. She'd have been so much better off not making the burden of proof argument at all.
You know that, aside from Kavanaugh and Ford, there were at least three other people alleged to have been at the party, and that one of those was alleged to have been in the room when the assault happened, right? Do you think their memories / lack thereof might have had an effect on Collins' opinion?
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Old 10-18-2018, 06:00 PM
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Alleged.
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Old 10-18-2018, 06:39 PM
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IMHO her base here in Maine is sorely disappointed in her. First she got screwed on the tax cut and then she caved on the nomination. I'm proud she's a moderate. But I'm increasingly disenchanted with her increasingly slavish following of the Trumpian party line. I had been hoping she would be the Margaret Chase Smith of this generation.
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Old 10-18-2018, 07:07 PM
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I hope so. She's never been the moderate she's claimed to be, and this vote made that clear for all to see.
FiveThirtyEight.com: Collins votes with Trump 78.5% of votes versus a predicted 47.5% based on Trump’s electoral margin. She may not be a dedicated Trumpeter, but she resembles one closely enough that it doesn’t really matter. Her voting record has never really been all that liberal despite views to the contrary, and while the Kavanaugh vote seems calculated to make her seem as if she is being circumspect and stentorian, it isn’t as if she had much choice if she wanted RNC support in a 2020 Senate primary or hypothetical run as governor. If there was ever an issue to fall on your sword over in this session this was it, and instead she did the sword-swallowing trick of making it seem like she was giving weighty consideration while actually ending up in the exact position she had to adopt to remain in Republican politics.

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I like how "batshit crazy" is now indistinguishable from "solid conservative."
It has been that way for a long time, from Goldwater through Gingrich and beyond. There are just a lot more of them popping out of the woodwork and driving whatever was left of the moderate, pragmatist Republican party of Eisenhower running for the hills. Now it’s like a city in a zombie movie with the crazies looking for braaaaaaaaaains.

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Old 10-18-2018, 07:16 PM
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Mainer checking in. I hope she's done. I'll volunteer for her opponent. She's pretty unpopular at the moment round these parts.

We have LePage because he got Nader'ed in (several liberals split the votes). Now we have ranked choice voting, under which LePage would not have been elected. Maine's liberal bastion is Portland and surrounding areas up and down the coast and inland a little ways. I'd also say mid-Maine, the capital (Augusta) and Bangor, is pretty lefty. All tolled, that encompasses maybe 500,000 people - half the population. Everywhere else is cow-tipping central. However, cells of hippies occupy great expanses as well. Overall, I'd tip Maine as left-leaning, with loud righties. Business as usual.
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Old 10-18-2018, 07:40 PM
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Collins votes with Trump 78.5% of votes versus a predicted 47.5% based on Trump’s electoral margin. She may not be a dedicated Trumpeter, but she resembles one closely enough that it doesn’t really matter. Her voting record has never really been all that liberal despite views to the contrary, and while the Kavanaugh vote seems calculated to make her seem as if she is being circumspect and stentorian, it isn’t as if she had much choice if she wanted RNC support in a 2020 Senate primary or hypothetical run as governor. If there was ever an issue to fall on your sword over in this session this was it, and instead she did the sword-swallowing trick of making it seem like she was giving weighty consideration while actually ending up in the exact position she had to adopt to remain in Republican politics.
"Predicted voting based on Trump's electoral margin" is really stupid for a number or freasons. Probably most importantly, it's assuming that the group of people who voted for Collins but not for Trump will not vote for Collins unless she breaks with Trump most of the time. I'm sure there were people who voted against Trump and for Collins who agree with most of the bills Trump has supported (especially since most of what Trump has supported is just the mainline GOP agenda). The stat is basically trying to predict marginal differences in voting habits based on absolute electoral results.

Honestly I think some liberals got excited that Collins voted against the healthcare repeal - but she was against it because she wanted to do her plan of giving block grants to states, plus she wanted to preserve other federal funding, not because she actually supports the ACA.
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Old 10-18-2018, 07:42 PM
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Is there any data to support this opinion?
Lots of it...mostly in the form of pictures of dead presidents...

Site taking donations for Susan Collins' challenger crashed from overload

Gotta love her interview with 60 Minutes:

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“They are asking me to perform an official act and if I do not do what they want, [money] is going to go to my opponent,” she told “60 Minutes.”
Does the phrase "No shit, Sherlock" ring a bell? Protip: it's only bribery if they offer you money for your vote.
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Old 10-18-2018, 07:58 PM
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You know that, aside from Kavanaugh and Ford, there were at least three other people alleged to have been at the party, and that one of those was alleged to have been in the room when the assault happened, right? Do you think their memories / lack thereof might have had an effect on Collins' opinion?
Are you referring to the alleged accomplice or the woman who said she didn't see it but agreed it probably did happen?
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Old 10-18-2018, 07:58 PM
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I had never heard of Collins having any presidential aspirations to begin with.

As for 2020, the anger over the Kav vote will have long since been replaced by something else. Two years is a long time for other things to happen.

Besides - Dems were always going to run hard against Collins to begin with. It's not like they would have declared a truce had she voted against Kav.
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Old 10-18-2018, 08:06 PM
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A gubernatorial run is the scuttlebutt.
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Old 10-18-2018, 08:44 PM
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Are you referring to the alleged accomplice or the woman who said she didn't see it but agreed it probably did happen?
All of the above. Nobody remembered the party except Ford. "the woman who said she didn't see it" couldn't recall having ever been to a party with Justice Kavanaugh.
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Old 10-18-2018, 09:09 PM
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Lots of it...mostly in the form of pictures of dead presidents...

Site taking donations for Susan Collins' challenger crashed from overload
All that proves is that the people who would never have voted for her anyway are really fired up. It says nothing about overall public opinion. And in the age of social media money doesn't seem as important anymore, Trump was heavily outspent. Beto O'Rourke has raised more than three times as much money as Ted Cruz, and Cruz is currently beating him by about 9 points.

As for the effect of the Kavanaugh vote, it looks to me like the effect has been to help Democrats in House races they were already heavily favored to win, while helping Republicans running for Senate. After all, 60% of Americans said that Kavaugh should have been confirmed if the final FBI report turned up nothing new. I imagine those numbers were much lower in heavily blue states, which means they were even higher in places like Maine - which is probably why Collins voted the way she did.

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Old 10-18-2018, 09:25 PM
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As for 2020, the anger over the Kav vote will have long since been replaced by something else. Two years is a long time for other things to happen.
Why in the world would you assume that? Kavenaugh will still be on the Court, barring something happening to him. Unless she does something so much worse that the Kavenaugh thing that this doesn't matter, there is absolutely no way her opponents aren't going to use that against her.

Warren's deal with Native American ancestry was first brought to light in 2012 and happened well before then. She had already stopped. Yet it was a big deal 2016, and it's expected to be a big deal in 2020. And it's not anywhere near as bad.

I'm not even sure she survives a primary challenge, if her challenger is willing to say that she was wrong to confirm Kavanaugh and hammer on her not believing rape victims.

And that's without factoring in the likelihood that Kavenaugh will screw over our country in Supreme Court decisions in those two years. If discrimination laws, same sex marriage, or abortion rights are in jeopardy, it will be more than Collins under fire for approving him. Possibly even worse if he's on the wrong side of anything rape or sexual harassment related, since that'll hit both sides.

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Old 10-18-2018, 10:10 PM
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I'd don't see how Collins ever had serious plans to run for President in 2020 (assuming Trump is still running). All signs are that Trump is planning on seeking re-election. So another Republican would have to challenge an incumbent President from their own party.

I'm not saying that's impossible. But you don't challenge your own party's candidate from the center. You challenge somebody in your party who you feel has gone too far towards the center. For Republicans that means you portray yourself as being the conservative alternative to the President (Ronald Reagan challenging Ford in 1976). For Democrats, you portray yourself as the liberal alternative to the President (Ted Kennedy challenging Carter in 1980).
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Old 10-18-2018, 10:59 PM
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The only way Trump doesn't get the 2020 nomination is if he either dies or decides he's done with the hassle of being POTUS.
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Old 10-18-2018, 11:14 PM
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The only way Trump doesn't get the 2020 nomination is if he either dies or decides he's done with the hassle of being POTUS.
Well, we'll see.

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Old 10-18-2018, 11:14 PM
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Are you referring to the alleged accomplice or the woman who said she didn't see it but agreed it probably did happen?
Note said woman based this on other behaviors she had observed, and her own sexual harassment (which, admittedly, is less severe than attempted rape).

There is also a third woman who said they did similar stuff in college. And then, the least reliable being a woman who said her daughter saw him pinning down his girlfriend (the daughter's friend) at a bar.

I know your point was just that the only other witness who said it didn't happen was an alleged accomplice, but I thought this might open up arguments that the women who aren't there aren't important. They are, for establishing a pattern of behavior.

And, so that isn't the end, I'll also note that said alleged accomplice tried to run away and hide to avoid being asked to testify, and then still didn't testify to avoid pressing questions. The credibility of the "witness" is basically nil.

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Old 10-18-2018, 11:16 PM
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I dunno. He's cutting it really close. Even if the actual case isn't finished, he needs to get stuff out there soon.
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Old 10-18-2018, 11:17 PM
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And, so that isn't the end, I'll also note that said alleged accomplice tried to run away and hide to avoid being asked to testify, and then still didn't testify to avoid pressing questions. The credibility of the "witness" is basically nil.
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Old 10-19-2018, 02:17 AM
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All of the above. Nobody remembered the party except Ford. "the woman who said she didn't see it" couldn't recall having ever been to a party with Justice Kavanaugh.
So is Ford a lying bitch or just a foolish little woman?
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Old 10-19-2018, 02:36 AM
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So is Ford a lying bitch or just a foolish little woman?
1. People remember very few things which happened 35 years ago. So other people not remembering is not at all surprising.

2. If you have been the victim of an attempted rape you remember it--no matter how many decades ago it was.
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Old 10-19-2018, 08:58 AM
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1. People remember very few things which happened 35 years ago. So other people not remembering is not at all surprising.

2. If you have been the victim of an attempted rape you remember it--no matter how many decades ago it was.
What? You mean people don't remember when something doesn't happen to them personally, three decades later? Get out.
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Old 10-19-2018, 11:27 AM
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Collins is one of the best politicians in the country. She won her last election by a 37 percentage points. She got reelected in a landslide in a year that Obama carried the state by 17 points.
She is likely to win reelection if she wants it.
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Old 10-19-2018, 11:35 AM
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Collins is one of the best politicians in the country. She won her last election by a 37 percentage points. She got reelected in a landslide in a year that Obama carried the state by 17 points.
She is likely to win reelection if she wants it.
I'm not sure about that. By 2020, the anti-Trump tide will be even stronger than it is now. And we've seen Republicans lose races lately in regions Trump carried by twenty or more points.
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Old 10-19-2018, 12:06 PM
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I don't live in Maine full time, but I do spend a lot of time there, and I haven't noticed a lot of anti-Collins rhetoric over this. From what I know about Mainers (and New Englanders in general) is that they don't like the "out of towners" telling them how they should think. And I think it's seems initially like a lot of people are trying to tell the good people of Maine how they should vote, and that won't work out all that well.

And I agree in political years, 2020 is a long way off, and more Americans can't name two Supreme Court justices let alone are they going to be all worked up about this.
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Old 10-19-2018, 02:11 PM
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Literally 100 things will probably happen between now and then that will make Kavanaugh seem like a quaint distant memory. A Trump year is like a dog year.
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Old 10-19-2018, 02:30 PM
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Literally 100 things will probably happen between now and then that will make Kavanaugh seem like a quaint distant memory. A Trump year is like a dog year.
Well, maybe. But the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings were such a blatant act of corruption in plain sight, and at a time when the issue of sexual assault and women being ignored or dismissed in their claims of harassment that I think Kavanaugh in particular is going to stick in many peoples’ minds for a long time, and especially if he does have a chance to weigh in on a reevaluation of Roe v. Wade or other cases involving womens’ rights. I think confirming Kavanaugh in a “Hail Mary” pass without any real investigation or the claims against him (the risable FBI background check of which results were not publicly released notwithstanding) instead of selecting a less controversial conservative candidate was a short-sighted action on the part of the GOP to appease Trump that will have an impact beyond the upcoming mid-term elections. Whether it will turn out to be longer lasting than the lashback that followed Anita Hill’s abominable treatment has yet to be seen, but unlike in 1991 women and people offended by the cultural maltreatment of women have a media presence independent of what the news media decides to focus upon, and hopefully can sustain attention on the chronic problem of abuse and assault.

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Old 10-19-2018, 02:45 PM
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I dunno. He's cutting it really close. Even if the actual case isn't finished, he needs to get stuff out there soon.
This whole notion that Mueller needs to hurry up and release what he has, or that there is some kind of deadline on his invsetigation is a false narrative. Bob Mueller has been a professional prosecutor involved in corruption investigations for longer than many of his critics have been alive, and he’s been under literal fire in a warzone. He’s going to do the job the right way and to completion (unless fired before).

It is quite possible—even likely—that he will find nothing that directly links Donald Trump to Russian intelligence or interference in the elections, and may not even find definitive evidence that the Trump sons and campaign officials had colluded or conspired with Russians, although the number of undisclosed and reluctantly acknowledged contacts with Russian officials is damning in its own right even if not to the level of supporting impeachment or removal. And removal is not going to happen with a Republican-dominated Senate at any rate, so the idea that the investigation needs to be tied off to some practical purpose is without basis. And it is possible that a report will be completed and not released if Rod Rosenstein or whomever is in charge of Justice decides not to make it public.

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Old 10-19-2018, 02:56 PM
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And I agree in political years, 2020 is a long way off, and more Americans can't name two Supreme Court justices let alone are they going to be all worked up about this.
It all depends on if the Supreme Court makes major controversial decisions--and the one which comes to mind is overturning Roe vs Wade. While Kavanaugh would probably vote to overturn, the Supreme Court often puts off these controversial issues and it is even possible Kavanaugh could turn out to be like David Souter--someone everyone expected to be quite conservative but turned out moderate--and didn't vote to overturn Roe vs Wade.
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Old 10-19-2018, 02:57 PM
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Please drop the hijack regarding the particulars of the Kavanaugh confirmation hearing, especially the discussion about the particulars of Ford's allegations. This thread is about Collins and her future prospective political chances.

This is a bit squishy I know because they intersect, but if it doesn't have to do mostly with Collins it's probably off topic. Examples would be post #14, 21, 24, 30, 33, 34, and 35.

[/moderating]
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Old 10-19-2018, 03:40 PM
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From what I know about Mainers (and New Englanders in general) is that they don't like the "out of towners" telling them how they should think.
Not everyone in Maine stands around next to lobster traps, wearing yellow rain slickers and saying, "Ayuh, ya cain't get theah from heah." That is to say, I think you are way over simplify the political landscape in Maine, especially in the metro areas.
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Old 10-19-2018, 03:45 PM
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I dunno. He's cutting it really close. Even if the actual case isn't finished, he needs to get stuff out there soon.
He is purposely not going to release anything before the midterms. Unlike Comey he understands his duty.

Last edited by DigitalC; 10-19-2018 at 03:45 PM.
  #46  
Old 10-19-2018, 04:33 PM
Ruken is offline
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Has anyone seen any polling? She's not running now so it's not like anyone would have planned something. I haven't seen anything.
  #47  
Old 10-19-2018, 04:36 PM
KidCharlemagne is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PastTense View Post
1. People remember very few things which happened 35 years ago. So other people not remembering is not at all surprising.

2. If you have been the victim of an attempted rape you remember it--no matter how many decades ago it was.
I agree - I was trying to get HurricaneDitka to see that.
  #48  
Old 10-20-2018, 05:51 AM
China Guy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fir na tine View Post
Ishe got screwed on the tax cut.
IMHO that was pure Kabuki theater. Same with the pretend "hear out the case against Kavanaugh" BS
  #49  
Old 10-20-2018, 08:50 AM
Stranger On A Train is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KidCharlemagne View Post
I agree - I was trying to get HurricaneDitka to see that.
You can lead a horse...

Quote:
Originally Posted by China Guy View Post
IMHO that was pure Kabuki theater. Same with the pretend "hear out the case against Kavanaugh" BS
Yeah, she makes a great show of considering all sides but then consistently votes conservative anyway. Imguess people are fooled and then disappointed when she doesn’t male more moderate decisions but she is part of a political mechanism that actively punishes moderation and bipartisanship, and no doubr many of these decisions are based on sustaining her political career. However, the Kavanaugh confirmation vote was a clear choice of political expediency or making the ethically and rationally correct decision to reject cloture until a more thorough investigation had been done, and to reject confirmation in absence of a complete investigation and in the face of having a confirmation ramrodded through despite Kavanaugh’s conflicts of interest and behavior in the committee hearing, the presumed credibility of Ford’s allegation notwithstanding.

Collins choise expediency and used the GOP-supplied whitewash to suggest that Ford confused Kavanaugh with her actual assailant despite a nearly universal consensus among cognitive sciences that trauma victims will have stark memories of salient details of an attack even as ancillary details are forgotten or blocked. Collins can now count herself as among those who dismiss the claims of assault victims on the basis that women just don’t have good enough ladybrains to be able to store all of that information and get easily condused when questioned by a panel of brawny, virile men like Chuck Grassley and Lindsay Graham. She didn’t accuse Ford of being a “scorned woman” but she might as well have done so.

I don’t know how popular Collins’ performance was among Maine voters but if they dump her it’ll be little enough justice.

Stranger
  #50  
Old 09-19-2019, 06:45 PM
Saint Cad is offline
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Update.
Sara Gideon has thrown her hat in the ring, The Dems will be pouring money into the election and this article makes it seems like the Ds have a good chance for taking the seat.
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