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  #251  
Old 05-28-2019, 09:49 AM
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Biden is doing very few public appearances and that is his strategy and crowds are not big. He is skipping events that 10 or more candidates are going to.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...crisis-1345359
  #252  
Old 05-28-2019, 10:03 AM
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Iowa poll has Sanders and Biden both at 24%

https://news.yahoo.com/2020-election...170426885.html
Iowa and New Hampshire are quite often friendly to upstarts, and they're hardly indicative of how the rest of the race will go. I won't say that they're unimportant because the results can carry into the more important races in February and early March, but they're not bellwethers.

That being said, the enthusiasm thing is definitely a problem for Biden. And it remains to be seen how he is going to perform on live TV, which is how people are going to really shape their final perceptions of candidates.
  #253  
Old 05-28-2019, 10:07 AM
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Biden is doing very few public appearances and that is his strategy and crowds are not big. He is skipping events that 10 or more candidates are going to.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...crisis-1345359
He will do so until his poll numbers fall, which they will. The attacks will sharpen, they will be more frequent, and they will all be aimed at the front runner. That's how this stuff works. Suddenly, a 20-25% point lead gets cut in half just in time for the debates, and then he'll get smacked around there, probably bringing his poll numbers down even further. Biden can hide for a while, but people subconsciously get sucked into the contest drama.

Ironically, I wonder, too, whether or not the Pelosi strategy of slow-go impeachment, which I think will help Democrats keep the House of Reps, may not work against them a little bit in terms of retaking the White House. I don't care what the pundits say: There will be pressure in this campaign to be the anti-Trump, and at least one and maybe two of the candidates will make a name for themselves by being a firebrand.

Last edited by asahi; 05-28-2019 at 10:08 AM.
  #254  
Old 05-28-2019, 12:00 PM
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Iowa and New Hampshire are quite often friendly to upstarts, and they're hardly indicative of how the rest of the race will go.
Tell me about the last time a major-party nominee wasn't either (a) the IA or NH winner, or (in years before the Iowa caucuses were a thing. or when Iowa was bypassed by the field) (b) one of the top 2 finishers in NH.

I'll save you the trouble. The last time was 1968, when LBJ and Gene McCarthy finished 1-2 in NH, but the nomination went to Humphrey.

They're not indicative of how the rest of the race will go, in terms of determining which of the surviving two (in cases where there are two rather than one) will win, but narrowing it down to one or two is pretty indicative, if you ask me.
  #255  
Old 05-28-2019, 12:13 PM
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people keep saying they don't want to put so much emphasis on 2 small very white states like Iowa and NH. But every 4 years it never changes.
  #256  
Old 05-28-2019, 05:32 PM
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Biden is doing very few public appearances and that is his strategy and crowds are not big. He is skipping events that 10 or more candidates are going to.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...crisis-1345359

Yeah, that's concerning.
  #257  
Old 05-28-2019, 05:57 PM
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Yes, on the one hand it could be seen as concerning. On the other, he is old. I mean, he's in better shape than a shit-ton of people in their late 70s, but in his late 70s, he is.

This race is a marathon, not a sprint, and perhaps he, better than anyone, knows this and recognizes his strengths and weaknesses in this marathon. Coming out of the gate with his turbo drive engaged in the first month of his campaign may not be the right strategy for a Joe Biden victory.

1) No need to completely wreck himself 17 months out from Election Day, especially at a point when he's enjoying very, very, very solid front-runner status. And 2) Own the front-runner status for now, and let the other candidates put themselves in a position to fuck things up with a verbal gaffe or unforced error. If he's able to pace himself, and still maintain a strong lead in the polls and maintain solid fundraising, why risk putting your foot in your mouth this early on?

Now if he appears lazy and/or tired later in the year, I'll start getting worried and re-think my pick.

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  #258  
Old 05-28-2019, 06:20 PM
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...why risk putting your foot in your mouth this early on?
Oh, don't worry - he won't miss an opportunity to do plenty of that later. I just hope it's harmless stuff, where people can shake their heads and go "Oh, Joe..." and not some sexist/racist comment where everyone goes "Oh! Joe!?!"
  #259  
Old 05-28-2019, 06:24 PM
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Oh, don't worry - he won't miss an opportunity to do plenty of that later. I just hope it's harmless stuff, where people can shake their heads and go "Oh, Joe..." and not some sexist/racist comment where everyone goes "Oh! Joe!?!"
Oh I'm fully aware that that's gonna happen, even the most polished candidates have their "You're likable enough, Hillary" and "Clinging to God and guns" moments. But Joe probably figures why take unnecessary risks when he's a solid front-runner. And for that, I applaud him.

But he won't be able to lay low forever.
  #260  
Old 05-28-2019, 06:44 PM
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Yes, on the one hand it could be seen as concerning. On the other, he is old.

But that's exactly why it's concerning--and why he (and Bernie) shouldn't even be running.
  #261  
Old 05-28-2019, 06:53 PM
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Tell me about the last time a major-party nominee wasn't either (a) the IA or NH winner, or (in years before the Iowa caucuses were a thing. or when Iowa was bypassed by the field) (b) one of the top 2 finishers in NH.

I'll save you the trouble. The last time was 1968, when LBJ and Gene McCarthy finished 1-2 in NH, but the nomination went to Humphrey.

They're not indicative of how the rest of the race will go, in terms of determining which of the surviving two (in cases where there are two rather than one) will win, but narrowing it down to one or two is pretty indicative, if you ask me.
I didn't mean they were unimportant, but I remember Bernie Sanders nearly beating Clinton in Iowa and crushing her in NH, but Clinton pulled away after that. Pat Buchanan beat Bob Dole in Iowa - Dole cruised after that. It's common sense that if you want to win a nomination, you want to be very competitive and ideally win one of the two first races, but a poll at this early stage showing Biden and Sanders tied doesn't mean that much to me.

What *is* a concern is that Biden just looks like he's running a very low energy campaign right now. It looks like he's just trying to do what Hillary Clinton did and run out the clock, and I seriously doubt that's going to work. If Biden starts to look old and tired, he will collapse quickly. The advantage Biden has is that he's electable. There's nothing electable about old and tired.
  #262  
Old 05-28-2019, 07:57 PM
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Biden already looks old (so does Sanders) , I guess the tired part has not happened yet.
  #263  
Old 05-29-2019, 12:54 AM
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Yeah, sometimes I wonder if some of the people telling pollsters they support one or the other of these guys, based on their being the only names they are familiar with, have actually taken a good look at either of them in 2019. They definitely look way, way past their salad days.
  #264  
Old 05-29-2019, 01:45 AM
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Yeah, sometimes I wonder if some of the people telling pollsters they support one or the other of these guys, based on their being the only names they are familiar with, have actually taken a good look at either of them in 2019. They definitely look way, way past their salad days.
None of these polls means much right now - wait until people see them on TV responding to hard questions, responding to attacks, and attacking other candidates. That's when you need to start watching the polls.
  #265  
Old 06-01-2019, 07:06 AM
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We can debate the value of Google trends data, but if you compare Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, and Joe Biden, something interesting jumps out, which is that Harris is getting a lot of search interest in very large southern and mid-Atlantic states, from Virginia all the way to Texas, and she's getting interest in California, of course. Bernie seems to dominate the rest of the states, and then there's Joe Biden who's not getting a lot of search interest at all. This would seem to be evidence, however insignificant it might be, that supports the idea that Biden is a front runner, but people aren't really excited to vote for him.

ETA: Bernie still bests Harris in Florida - at least for now.

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  #266  
Old 06-01-2019, 11:35 AM
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seems like Biden is known very well so why would you search for him? Just my 2 cents.
  #267  
Old 06-01-2019, 02:11 PM
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While don't disagree with the conclusion (many are not "excited" about Biden, even though he is their first choice for lack of any that so far seem better, and a few that seem much worse), yeah, I'll disagree about the quality of the evidence. Biden is the comfortable pair of well worn shoes. Not only no need to learn about them, but the people really liking these shoes are not the ones who are shopping online as much.
  #268  
Old 06-01-2019, 02:26 PM
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I think Biden's candidacy will be an interesting test of the power of the left punditocracy which clearly doesn't like him very much and much prefers someone like Warren. The right punditocracy did not like Trump either and couldn't do much about it but my sense is that Dem primary voters are less anti-establishment and more likely to pay attention to what prominent left commentators are saying. So I am wondering how Biden's numbers will survive month after month of mediocre to negative commentary. Also my sense is that Biden will struggle to gain new voters he doesn't already have or regain voters that he loses. So the 35% he has now may well be a ceiling and if he slowly leaks voters and goes to 25% he may struggle to recover. The debates will obviously be key. If Biden performs well and still stays at 35% after a few debates, his candidacy will look very strong.
  #269  
Old 06-01-2019, 04:28 PM
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... the 35% he has now may well be a ceiling ...
Except that in one on one match ups he runs mid 60s.
  #270  
Old 06-01-2019, 06:59 PM
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Yeah, those one-on-ones are very powerful evidence that there is no significant "stop Biden" constituency. This blows away the hope many have that once the field narrows, opposition will coalesce around one alternative.


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I think Biden's candidacy will be an interesting test of the power of the left punditocracy which clearly doesn't like him very much and much prefers someone like Warren. The right punditocracy did not like Trump either and couldn't do much about it but my sense is that Dem primary voters are less anti-establishment and more likely to pay attention to what prominent left commentators are saying.

It's an interesting hypothesis. One big flaw: Trump was an incoherent buffoon who had never run for office before or served in the military (STDs were "his Vietnam"), who attacked conservative orthodoxy and party elders. Biden, by contrast, is a very recent vice president and longyime senator. Democrats in the post-Civil War era have never seen a vice president subsequently run for president and not get nominated on his first attempt. Republicans have seen this happen at least once (Quayle: I haven't checked as extensively for more examples).
  #271  
Old 06-01-2019, 08:00 PM
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Yeah, those one-on-ones are very powerful evidence that there is no significant "stop Biden" constituency. This blows away the hope many have that once the field narrows, opposition will coalesce around ...
If anything he seems more the go-to choice for stop others movements. Many would rather support Biden then have any chance of X or Y getting the nom.
  #272  
Old 06-02-2019, 01:14 AM
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Right, good point.
  #273  
Old 06-02-2019, 02:46 AM
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Obviously I don't think Biden is anything like Trump as a whole. I just think there are some interesting parallels in that he is the early leader like Trump and he also doesn't seem to be much liked by his party's pundits and I wonder how that will play out. In the case of Trump I very much thought that conservative pundit opposition would weaken and eventually defeat his candidacy once the race was winnowed down to a few candidates but obviously that didn't happen. I think his victory proved that conservative pundits were weaker in their own party than many people had thought and 2020 may be a similar test for the pundits of the left.

The one-on-ones are a valid data point but you have to figure that name recognition plays a big role at this point. I am pretty sure Hillary would have beaten Obama handily one-on-one at this stage in 2007. One or two candidates are bound to rise in stature over the next six months especially with the debates. But the other issue is of course how quickly the race gets winnowed down. Both Bernie and Warren seem to be quite strong and my guess is both will stay in for quite a while which is definitely to Biden's advantage.
  #274  
Old 06-02-2019, 03:06 AM
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On thinking more about Biden and Trump in their respective primaries I think there are four points: two similarities and two differences:
1) Both Trump and Biden have an early lead in the polls. Biden's numbers are even more impressive since IIRC Trump's favorability numbers in 2015 weren't very good.
2)In both cases the pundit class in the party dislikes the candidate, intensely so in the case of Trump and mildly in the case of Biden.

3) The relevant party establishment was solidly against Trump in 2015 but is perfectly fine with Biden today.
4)Trump really lit a fire in his base with his message and his personality. I just don't see a comparable level of enthusiasm for Biden.

1,2,3 favor Biden in comparison to Trump but arguably in this political era, 4 is the most important of all.
  #275  
Old 06-03-2019, 01:27 PM
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So, that NY Times hit-piece on Biden and his son, suggesting untoward activity on the part of Hunter Biden vis-a-vis dealings with Ukranian officials?

This story? https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/01/u...n-ukraine.html

Turns out, the author of the piece just happened, today, to accept the job as the official spokesperson for the President of The Ukraine beating, by her admission, 4,000 candidates for the job.

I'm sure it's all just a big ol' coincidence. Or a part of the application and interviewing process. I can't decide which... someone want to offer me some guidance here?

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/sta...03015857872901

Last edited by JohnT; 06-03-2019 at 01:28 PM.
  #276  
Old 06-03-2019, 01:42 PM
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Correction: Co-Author, along with Ken Vogel.
  #277  
Old 06-04-2019, 12:35 AM
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Why, here's a great example from just a few days ago:



Would anyone here think it was a wise strategy to invite black voters to "stay home, sit down, and shut up" in the 2020 election?
It's fine. I actually like mouthy outbursts like that. Those people have no idea how effective it is at galvanizing people against what they advocate. No idea.
  #278  
Old 06-04-2019, 05:24 AM
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So, that NY Times hit-piece on Biden and his son, suggesting untoward activity on the part of Hunter Biden vis-a-vis dealings with Ukranian officials?

This story? https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/01/u...n-ukraine.html

Turns out, the author of the piece just happened, today, to accept the job as the official spokesperson for the President of The Ukraine beating, by her admission, 4,000 candidates for the job.

I'm sure it's all just a big ol' coincidence. Or a part of the application and interviewing process. I can't decide which... someone want to offer me some guidance here?

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/sta...03015857872901
Could you explain why the President of the Ukraine would want a hit piece on Biden?
  #279  
Old 06-04-2019, 06:21 AM
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Who knows? But I'm not really one to believe in coincidences.
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Old 06-04-2019, 07:02 AM
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What exactly is the coincidence? She writes an article about Ukraine politics and mere weeks later she gets a job in Ukraine politics?
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Old 06-04-2019, 07:14 AM
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The coincidence is that she obviously was interviewing for the job when the NY Times published the article. Do they not have ethic guidelines about this? If I were to announce to my newspaper bosses that:

1. I'm interviewing for the Head of PR at Walmart, and
2. I'm co-authoring an article about how the son of a Presidential candidate maybe profited from his relationship with Eddie Lambert of Sears

... should I not be yanked off the story for potential conflict of interest issues? Would I, as the ethics ombudsman (or whatever) at the NY Times, be remiss if I weren't concerned that the article was biased due to the nature of the new job I was looking for?

The woman admitted to beating 4k candidates. She didn't roll in between rushes and fill out a 2-page app when the manager was available. This was in the works prior to the article being published, and yet the NY Times never saw fit to let the readership know that one of the authors had a financial stake in pleasing Ukrainian officials, even ones about to be elected.
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Old 06-04-2019, 07:42 AM
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Well, yes she probably should have been yanked from the story but that is a different matter. It's not even much of a "hit piece", it's background on a story Trump allies have been pushing already.
  #283  
Old 06-05-2019, 03:02 PM
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Biden posted some impressive numbers in a new Quinnipiac poll of Texas. He was the only one with a clear lead over Trump, something not even Beto or Castro can claim: https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625
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Old 06-05-2019, 04:02 PM
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At the risk of sounding like Captain Obvious, we'll know a lot more about Biden's strength and durability toward the end of summer. My hunch (my fear?) is that Biden will turn in some weak debate performances and he'll start to fall back in with the other front-runners.

My hunch is that if anyone has his own lane it's Bernie Sanders. If Biden slips up, I suspect that voters will consider other candidates like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, and Elizabeth Warren. However, Sanders is the one candidate who really has a committed voting base. Other candidates may have co-opted some of his platform, but he's selling political revolution, and he comes across as authentic.

My other hunch is that Pete Buttigieg might be a bit stronger than people realize at the moment. Just to be clear, I'm not predicting President Buttigieg, but there is a lot of interest over this guy and he performs well on camera.

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  #285  
Old 06-05-2019, 04:05 PM
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Biden posted some impressive numbers in a new Quinnipiac poll of Texas. He was the only one with a clear lead over Trump, something not even Beto or Castro can claim: https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625
Speaking of Beto...I think he's dead in the water right now. He will have to do well in the debates. He'll need some sound bytes and some enthusiasm.
  #286  
Old 06-05-2019, 04:50 PM
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Biden has a touched one of the 3rd rails for a Dem, he is still against federal abortion funding.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...rises-n1013846
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Old 06-05-2019, 05:25 PM
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Biden has a touched one of the 3rd rails for a Dem, he is still against federal abortion funding.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...rises-n1013846
I think he's right here. Look, it's all about Choice. But when you force Right to Life to pay for abortions, you take away their choice.

Let the states decide each on their own and of course allow Insurance companies- even those who cover Feds- pay for it. Choice.
  #288  
Old 06-05-2019, 05:59 PM
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Very smart general election positioning.
  #289  
Old 06-05-2019, 10:44 PM
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Joe Biden, Primary Donald Trump as a Republican
  #290  
Old 06-06-2019, 03:39 AM
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I think he's right here. Look, it's all about Choice. But when you force Right to Life to pay for abortions, you take away their choice.

Let the states decide each on their own and of course allow Insurance companies- even those who cover Feds- pay for it. Choice.
My taxes pay for a bunch of things that I don't morally agree with. I was going to bring up the death penalty as an example, but apparently Biden supports capital punishment. Why do we care about this dude, again?
  #291  
Old 06-06-2019, 05:35 AM
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Itís interesting: whatís mentioned there is apparently meant to show Biden as naÔve; that he just doesnít get it; that heís being sincere as a guy who could get GOP votes. And all of this is leveled at him as criticism.

But say a cynic saw the same stuff and said, ďI donít think heís naÔve; I think heís acting. I think he thinks Ďanti-Trumpí is enough to unite Dems behind the nominee; and, as heís already ahead in the polls, he figures he just needs to appeal to other voters in the general. So he talks like a business-friendly moderate who thinks both sides will compromise in a reach across the aisle; but heís disingenuous, since he couldnít possibly be stupid enough to actually believe it. Heís presumbly doing it because he thinks itís sensible to give that wrong impression.Ē

Which of those would be a more negative view of Biden?
  #292  
Old 06-06-2019, 11:01 AM
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I think he's right here. Look, it's all about Choice. But when you force Right to Life to pay for abortions, you take away their choice.

Let the states decide each on their own and of course allow Insurance companies- even those who cover Feds- pay for it. Choice.
Yes, and when you allow crazy people to buy assault weapons, you take away my choice to not get shot. Yet you seem perfectly OK with denying me the right to make that choice.

This means he is running to the right of every Democratic candidate since at least Bill Clinton, possibly earlier.

Fuck. This. Guy.

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  #293  
Old 06-06-2019, 11:07 AM
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Yes, and when you allow crazy people to buy assault weapons, you take away my choice to not get shot. Yet you seem perfectly OK with denying me the right to make that choice.

This means he is running to the right of every Democratic candidate since at least Bill Clinton, possibly earlier.

Fuck. This. Guy.
Politically, though, it makes sense. I think the reality for the foreseeable future is that states that want to prohibit abortion are going to find a way to do so. It's up to people to decide if they want to live in these states.
  #294  
Old 06-06-2019, 11:19 AM
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This is the kind of stuff he better quit doing:

https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-...ampaign-2019-6

"During a campaign event in New Hampshire, the former vice president joked — again — about touching women after a female supporter leaned in to whisper in his ear.

"I want the press to know, she pulled me close," Biden said, as the older, almost entirely white crowd laughed and applauded. The comment drew immediate backlash from feminists and left-leaning progressives, many of whom took issue with Biden's cavalier attitude toward the allegations against him in lieu of a direct apology."

I don't see why his approval numbers are so high and I'd very much prefer Warren or Pete over him.

I don't dislike him. But he should just go back home.
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Old 06-06-2019, 11:46 AM
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... My hunch is that if anyone has his own lane it's Bernie Sanders. If Biden slips up, I suspect that voters will consider other candidates like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, and Elizabeth Warren. However, Sanders is the one candidate who really has a committed voting base. Other candidates may have co-opted some of his platform, but he's selling political revolution, and he comes across as authentic. ...
Today's 538 is on that point.
Quote:
... Sanders has a relatively high floor of support. Among Democrats who were considering only one candidate, 28 percent were considering only Sanders, and 27 percent were considering only Biden. Everyone else was in the single digits on this question.

Hereís the catch, though: Only 28 percent of Democrats fell into the category of considering only one candidate. (By comparison, 67 percent are still considering multiple candidates, and 5 percent arenít considering any current candidates.) So Sanders isnít getting 28 percent of 100 percent ó heís getting 28 percent of 28 percent. That means just 8 percent of the overall Democratic electorate truly falls into the ďBernie or bustĒ category.

So while Sanders might have a slightly higher floor than other candidates ó about half of the voters who currently prefer Sanders are only considering Sanders ó itís still pretty low in the broader scheme of things. About two-thirds of Democratic voters are still up for grabs, and theyíre probably going to take their time to make a decision. ...
  #296  
Old 06-06-2019, 12:54 PM
DrDeth is offline
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Yes, and when you allow crazy people to buy assault weapons, you take away my choice to not get shot. Yet you seem perfectly OK with denying me the right to make that choice....
What are you babbling about? Biden is in favor of a assault weapons ban.

And insane people have been barred from buying guns for decades.

Last edited by DrDeth; 06-06-2019 at 12:56 PM.
  #297  
Old 06-06-2019, 01:01 PM
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This is the kind of stuff he better quit doing:

https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-...ampaign-2019-6

"During a campaign event in New Hampshire, the former vice president joked ó again ó about touching women after a female supporter leaned in to whisper in his ear.

"I want the press to know, she pulled me close," Biden said, as the older, almost entirely white crowd laughed and applauded. The comment drew immediate backlash from feminists and left-leaning progressives, many of whom took issue with Biden's cavalier attitude toward the allegations against him in lieu of a direct apology."

I don't see why his approval numbers are so high and I'd very much prefer Warren or Pete over him.

I don't dislike him. But he should just go back home.
Yeah, he runs the risk of being tone deaf here. Maybe less time in front of the camera isn't a bad idea, given his history of saying cringe-worthy things in front of a live mic.
  #298  
Old 06-06-2019, 01:07 PM
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What are you babbling about? Biden is in favor of a assault weapons ban.

And insane people have been barred from buying guns for decades.
The "you" there refers to you, not Biden.
  #299  
Old 06-06-2019, 01:13 PM
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when you force Right to Life to pay for abortions, you take away their choice.
I'll worry about that when they complain about being made to pay for wars.
  #300  
Old 06-06-2019, 01:18 PM
DrDeth is offline
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The "you" there refers to you, not Biden.
Oh a hijack? I am not in favor of insane people buying any firearm.
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