View Poll Results: Will Trump win in 2020?
Yes 135 47.54%
No 149 52.46%
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  #201  
Old 06-28-2019, 11:49 PM
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Interesting. Chris Davie is the exact type of voter I am talking about.
  #202  
Old 06-29-2019, 01:39 AM
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Trump has some serious vulnerabilities and I think Democrats have the edge in 2020 but it's probably going to be very close because of the reckless lurch to the left that we are seeing based on the first couple of primary debates and the broader discussion.

Around 75% of the Democratic agenda is popular and the logical thing for an out-of-power party would be to focus on that and downplay the stuff that is unpopular. That is pretty much what Obama did.

Instead the Democrats seem to be determined to focus on unpopular positions: abolishing private health insurance, federally funded abortions, decriminalizing illegal entry, forced school busing, reparations.
Some of these have been explicitly adopted and all of them are being discussed. I don't think the Democrats understand the world of hurt they will experience from Republican attack ads in 2020 on these issues especially if someone like Warren is the candidate.
  #203  
Old 06-29-2019, 06:49 AM
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I think the problem I see what a lot of the left activists is that they're not being realistic. I get their anger - I'm pissed off myself. But the political system we inherited typically allows for incremental change. If the left wants to change the system, it probably won't be through a swift push of a consensus unless there's a national emergency, such as the Great Depression was in the 1930s.

The times when we've had major reforms that occurred swiftly are when there has been a consensus (meaning 60-65%) who understand the need for it. People on the left cite the New Deal a lot but what they don't understand is that the New Deal wasn't just popular; it was implemented because the country was in apparent danger. People were so enraged that there was a very real possibility of political violence and widespread instability. Fascism actually had followers. And Huey Long had much of the country flirting with the idea of a left wing brand of authoritarianism as well.

As many problems as we have, I don't' see that kind of situation right now. There's a growing consensus that our healthcare system is a failure, but there's no consensus on what exactly to do about it. There's a growing consensus that there's economic inequality, but there's no consensus on what to do about it. So the best thing to do is to aim high for reforms but accept the best of what comes from negotiations. I shake my head when I see supposedly educated writers at the Intercept trash Biden for striking deals with a handful of republican senators for the express purpose of getting ACA done, getting the stimulus done, and trying to make sure that tax cuts didn't expire for people who really needed it. They're the same people who chastise Speaker Pelosi for 'caving' to Mitch McConnell and passing a weaker border funding bill when the reality is it's McConnell who would win that fight and make the migrants who are already suffering suffer even more. What I'm seeing on the left is impulsiveness and irrationality, and it needs to stop. They'll scare away the moderates -- and lose.
  #204  
Old 06-29-2019, 08:45 AM
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Instead the Democrats seem to be determined to focus on unpopular positions: abolishing private health insurance, federally funded abortions, decriminalizing illegal entry, forced school busing, reparations.
I wouldn't blame "the Democrats" so much as the media for giving the more sensational issues such prominence.

Who posed the questions yesterday whose answers are the tropes of today?

Last edited by KarlGauss; 06-29-2019 at 08:46 AM.
  #205  
Old 06-29-2019, 08:01 PM
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I voted Yes, for two reasons: the D's can't get out of their own way, and the economy is doing well (even if its foundations are shaky, the voters can't tell and don't care). Unless the economy tanks in the next 6 months, after which it will be too late to matter.

It will be tougher for 45 in some of the states he won last time, but unless the D's can field a candidate who is stellar, I don't think they have a chance. I think their best hope is to try to pick up some Senate seats, and not lose too many in the House.
  #206  
Old 07-01-2019, 03:09 PM
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Election model that was very accurate last fall sees 2020 the same way I do:

http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/0...tion-forecast/

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Trumpís 2016 path to the White House, which was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker, is probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate.[...]
Start with the numerical fact that Trump ďwonĒ Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan with 47.22%, 48.18%, and 47.5% of the vote, respectively, after five times the normal number in those states cast their ballots for an option other than Trump or Clinton. This, combined with the depressed turnout of African Americans (targeted with suppression materials by the Russians) and left-leaning Independents turned off by Clinton (targeted with defection materials by the Russians) allowed Trump to pull off an improbable victory, one that will be hard to replicate in todayís less nitpicky atmosphere. Yet, the media (and the voting public) has turned Trumpís 2016 win into a mythic legend of invincibility. The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president, has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced heís the Terminator and canít be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.
Trumpís second problem is that along with a turnout surge of Democrats that in many states like Virginia is simply larger than the turnout surges of Republicans because of demographics, he is deeply unpopular among Independents because of all the abnormal, norm-breaking and according to the Mueller Report, even illegal things, he does as president.
  #207  
Old 07-01-2019, 04:19 PM
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I voted Yes, for two reasons: the D's can't get out of their own way, and the economy is doing well (even if its foundations are shaky, the voters can't tell and don't care). Unless the economy tanks in the next 6 months, after which it will be too late to matter.

It will be tougher for 45 in some of the states he won last time, but unless the D's can field a candidate who is stellar, I don't think they have a chance. I think their best hope is to try to pick up some Senate seats, and not lose too many in the House.
I think the Dems' best bet is to hope that Joe Biden can get through the primary season with minimal damage. More than anyone, Biden's the guy that voters can say "I remember what it was like just a few years ago, when he and Barack were in the WH. Things were pretty much as they are now but without the drama."

I just don't know if Biden has it in him to make it that far without losing the confidence of voters. He's just not a great campaigner and he just looks lacking in energy.
  #208  
Old 07-01-2019, 04:59 PM
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Serious question: is Biden capable of accepting this feedback from his performance in the debate, and adjusting himself accordingly? Does he have consultants and coaches who are saying, "look Joe, you need to step up here, people thought you sounded old, tired, and weak.....get it together, man, stand up straight with authoritative body language, look straight at the camera, focus on your words and speak them with conviction", etc.....is he capable of actually doing this? I suspect that he might be, to an extent, but the way he consistently tripped over his words in the debate and did not speak in an articulate and straightforward manner the way that Buttigieg did, suggests to me that he might just not have it in him.

I guess he has a chance of pulling through IF HE CAN ADJUST what needs to be adjusted, and absolutely kill the next debate and all of the subsequent ones. But if his next appearance is in any way similar to the last one, he's dead in the water as far as I'm concerned.
  #209  
Old 07-01-2019, 07:02 PM
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Serious question: is Biden capable of accepting this feedback from his performance in the debate, and adjusting himself accordingly? Does he have consultants and coaches who are saying, "look Joe, you need to step up here, people thought you sounded old, tired, and weak.....get it together, man, stand up straight with authoritative body language, look straight at the camera, focus on your words and speak them with conviction", etc.....is he capable of actually doing this? I suspect that he might be, to an extent, but the way he consistently tripped over his words in the debate and did not speak in an articulate and straightforward manner the way that Buttigieg did, suggests to me that he might just not have it in him.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...t-about-debate

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According to Bidenís staff, he isnít listening to his debate prep and heís Ďset in his ways,í the source close to the campaign tells me,Ē she added.
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I guess he has a chance of pulling through IF HE CAN ADJUST what needs to be adjusted, and absolutely kill the next debate and all of the subsequent ones. But if his next appearance is in any way similar to the last one, he's dead in the water as far as I'm concerned.
Biden has a chance of pulling through because he has been a consensus favorite for the past several years, with people incessantly talking about how he would have won the race in 2016 had he only challenged Clinton. This is why I push back against Bernistas whenever they pull that lame "Bernie woulda beat Trump - the polls show it" crap. You don't know shit until someone actually steps into the arena.

I'm not writing Biden off just yet. It's one bad debate performance, and candidates can and do recover from them. What leaves doubts in my mind about Biden is the simple fact that he's never won a race in a large and diverse state, and he's never come close in two primaries two decades apart. And now he just seems like an older, less energetic, more confused version of the guy who ran twice before.
  #210  
Old 07-02-2019, 12:13 AM
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Here's a wildcard: There are a lot of people who can't stand Trump, but who are not hard-core progressives. If the Dems nominate someone like Bernie or Elizabeth Warren, there will be a big hole in the middle which could easily attract a center-right Republican to challenge Trump for the nomination.

And Mitt Romney is tanned, rested and so far his main role in the Senate seems to be as a rhetorical foil to Trump. Michael Bloomberg or some other center-left bigwig might start thinking about an independent hid.

An election between Trump and Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren leaves a pretty big hole in the middle of the electorate.

Last edited by Sam Stone; 07-02-2019 at 12:14 AM.
  #211  
Old 07-02-2019, 09:32 AM
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I'd vote for Romney in a heartbeat, but nobody is going to win the Republican primaries against an incumbent President. And Romney is too good a Republican to run as an independent and split the vote.

In an ideal world, Romney would be finishing his second term and Ryan preparing for his first.

Regards,
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  #212  
Old 07-02-2019, 01:34 PM
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I wouldn’t be so sure Romney doesn’t want to do his part to deny Trump a second term without actually advocating for a Democrat.
  #213  
Old 07-03-2019, 07:15 AM
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Somebody on twitter (I follow a couple of pretty shrewd political observers) made the point yesterday that we're giving Trump way too much credit. The guy drew an inside straight in '16 and has spent the ensuing two years pissing off millions more who didn't vote for him the first time. The country's demographics continue to change and not to his benefit.

I admit that the guy winning in '16 spooked me and shook my confidence in the intelligence of the American voter. And we Dems have a bad tendency to pout a little and not participate if we don't get exactly the candidate we want. But if we can just realize that all 75 Democratic candidates are far superior to the demented reality show host in the White House right now, we can blow him away.
  #214  
Old 07-03-2019, 07:54 AM
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Somebody on twitter (I follow a couple of pretty shrewd political observers) made the point yesterday that we're giving Trump way too much credit. The guy drew an inside straight in '16 and has spent the ensuing two years pissing off millions more who didn't vote for him the first time. The country's demographics continue to change and not to his benefit.

I admit that the guy winning in '16 spooked me and shook my confidence in the intelligence of the American voter. And we Dems have a bad tendency to pout a little and not participate if we don't get exactly the candidate we want. But if we can just realize that all 75 Democratic candidates are far superior to the demented reality show host in the White House right now, we can blow him away.
I don't believe this for a second. There is probably ONE thing and only ONE thing Trump excels at: Self Promotion. I mean, he's been doing it successfully for decades.

Let's not forget how many candidates, many of them seasoned, he picked off in 2016.

Under estimate him on this front, and he will crush you.
  #215  
Old 07-03-2019, 08:48 AM
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I don't believe this for a second. There is probably ONE thing and only ONE thing Trump excels at: Self Promotion. I mean, he's been doing it successfully for decades.

Let's not forget how many candidates, many of them seasoned, he picked off in 2016.

Under estimate him on this front, and he will crush you.
You're gonna have to be a little more specific for me to understand what you're trying to say here. E.g., what will the ability to self promote mean to voter turnout?
  #216  
Old 07-03-2019, 09:17 AM
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You're gonna have to be a little more specific for me to understand what you're trying to say here. E.g., what will the ability to self promote mean to voter turnout?
The same thing it did in 16. Belittle you opponents, make them look weak, come up with a childish nick name for them, while at the same time aggrandize yourself as the guy who doesn't play by the rules and thumbs his nose at the establishment.

Only HE knows how to fix the system! And he's quite good at getting certain parts of America to believe him.

So far, the only two candidates that I'm aware of that can effectively retort his nonsense with out stooping to his level are Harris and Buttigieg.
  #217  
Old 07-03-2019, 09:42 AM
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The same thing it did in 16. Belittle you opponents, make them look weak, come up with a childish nick name for them, while at the same time aggrandize yourself as the guy who doesn't play by the rules and thumbs his nose at the establishment.

Only HE knows how to fix the system! And he's quite good at getting certain parts of America to believe him.

So far, the only two candidates that I'm aware of that can effectively retort his nonsense with out stooping to his level are Harris and Buttigieg.
Yes, he surprised us with his ability to fast talk 63 million voters three years ago. He's going to need more this time around. Do you think there are many who didn't vote for him in '16 who have been won over by his salesmanship in the interim?

In the interest of fairness, I have read a couple of posts here and elsewhere from people who said something along these lines -- that Trump's ability to ram policies through that they favor has won them over to him. I think those numbers are dwarfed, however, by the newly eligible voters who increased their turnout by some ridiculously high percentage in the most recent midterms, and by those who declined to vote in '16 (because Hilary!) but now are horrorstruck at the shitshow they let in.
  #218  
Old 07-03-2019, 11:12 AM
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The ONLY way I see Trump winning is if the Dems run on a platform of free college, free healthcare where you don't get to pick your doctor or insurance provider, reminiscing about the good old days of forced busing, focusing on the atrocities at the border (which they SHOULD do), only to keep calling them "concentration camps," and keep bringing up reparations.

In other words, if the Dems lose, they really need to look in the mirror. Twitter activists should not be setting party platform.

Last edited by divemaster; 07-03-2019 at 11:12 AM.
  #219  
Old 07-03-2019, 11:30 AM
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Somebody on twitter (I follow a couple of pretty shrewd political observers) made the point yesterday that we're giving Trump way too much credit. The guy drew an inside straight in '16 and has spent the ensuing two years pissing off millions more who didn't vote for him the first time. The country's demographics continue to change and not to his benefit.

I admit that the guy winning in '16 spooked me and shook my confidence in the intelligence of the American voter. And we Dems have a bad tendency to pout a little and not participate if we don't get exactly the candidate we want. But if we can just realize that all 75 Democratic candidates are far superior to the demented reality show host in the White House right now, we can blow him away.

This. 100%.
  #220  
Old 07-03-2019, 10:16 PM
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Not only do I think he'll win, but I think the Dems (really? All 11 of you at the debate voted yes on healthcare for illegal immigrants?) are shooting themselves in the foot for years to come.
  #221  
Old 07-03-2019, 11:36 PM
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Not only do I think he'll win, but I think the Dems (really? All 11 of you at the debate voted yes on healthcare for illegal immigrants?) are shooting themselves in the foot for years to come.
What's wrong with healthcare for them? Are they not human? And if we dont give them healthcare, when they get sick, they just go to County ER, which is extremely expensive for the taxpayers.
  #222  
Old 07-04-2019, 12:54 AM
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There are many policies that would be both compassionate and technocratically efficient in use of resources that are just politically untenable. We have to operate within that reality even if it can often be frustrating.
  #223  
Old 07-04-2019, 03:13 AM
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What's wrong with healthcare for them? Are they not human? And if we dont give them healthcare, when they get sick, they just go to County ER, which is extremely expensive for the taxpayers.
It incentivizes criminal activity.
Are we talking about free healthcare for illegal immigrants while citizens don't have free healthcare?
And this free healthcare WONT come out of the taxpayers pocket (lol)

And finally... the majority of Americans (you know the people all eleven would purport to serve?) do not support this policy.

BUT....screw them right? Its not like the Dems need their votes or anything.

But thats not what this thread is about. I've said I think Trump will win, and I gave an example as to why I think so.
  #224  
Old 07-04-2019, 03:26 AM
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Vis-a-vis that and the "silent Trump supporters" comments.

Step 1, suppress public expression of certain viewpoints.
Step 2, run election.
Step 3, be confused more people hold those viewpoints than publicly visible.

What will it take for some people to understand forcing conformity is bad?, you entrench the original target group, make a portion of the bystanders reject you for your methods and those that support them will sooner or later rift and be at each other's throats as a result of the purity testing environment they have created.

Many people would rather not bothered to speak out their support for Trump if there's a good chance they'll be screeched at, so they don't and then they vote and half the population is left blindsided muttering "but but... the polls!"

This was reason #154 why echo chambers are bad.


I don't have a dog in the fight, but I saw a couple interviews with Tulsi Gabbard and she seemed like a switched on, decent candidate; from some of the reactions I saw to the last debate, accusing her of working for Russia... crap like that is why I think Trump will not-lose again.
Yeah in that list of what Trump has to do to win...I didn't see "Sit back and wait for A Donna Brazile or Wasserman to fuck up while everyone calls Jill a Russian agent and Hilary does the mannequin challenge."
  #225  
Old 07-04-2019, 09:37 AM
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If the argument is that previously Democratic voters are going to switch to Trump this time because the Dems are moving too far to the left, it kinda ignores the polling that a majority of voters favor progress on some of the big issues of the day. By fervently blocking any sort of governance which might help the average American, Republicans could be doing themselves equal harm in popularity. We might also be underplaying how disgust with Trump as a person is serving as a rallying point for his opposition.
  #226  
Old 07-04-2019, 11:02 AM
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The lack of fluctuation in Trump's approval ratings indicates to me that there could be little crossover voting next year. Those who voted for him are as likely to vote for him again as those who didn't are likely not to again. So the big battle will be for the independents and those who simply declined to vote in '16. He's not doing well with that group of potential voters. It's possible that he'll do better as election time gets nearer, and there probably is a real danger that the Dem candidate will be perceived as "too liberal," causing the unknown voters to cast their ballot for Donald. I think only Sanders and Warren, among the likely nominations, fit this criteria, though.

And my bottom line remains: if the newly eligible voters increase their turnout by the same amount they did from 2014 to 2018, Trump is toast. The GOP admittedly doesn't know how to appeal to that generation. Their strategy appears to be "just wait until they get older."
  #227  
Old 07-04-2019, 12:13 PM
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The real answer is, "Nobody has any freaking clue what is going to happen next November."

We live in crazy times. Volatility is through the roof. Alberta, the most conservative region in Canada and one of the most conservative in North America, and a province with an energy economy, elected an anti-oil socialist government, then in the next election kicked them out in a landslide. Nobody predicted the election of the NDP. Around the same time, a joke candidate won the Presidency of the United States when the polls showed him to be a massive underdog, and a gladhanding substitute teacher was elected Prime Minister of Canada.

The same pattern is happening all around the world. Voter volatility is high, and social media has connected people in new ways and made old patterns of prediction invalid.

By next year, we could all be screaming at each other over an issue we don't even know about today.
  #228  
Old 07-04-2019, 12:26 PM
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It incentivizes criminal activity.
Are we talking about free healthcare for illegal immigrants while citizens don't have free healthcare?
And this free healthcare WONT come out of the taxpayers pocket (lol)

And finally... the majority of Americans (you know the people all eleven would purport to serve?) do not support this policy.....
Look, overstaying your visit is a minor crime, on the level of speeding. Did the 55 mph speed limit incentivize criminal activity?

No, they are talking about not checking for citizenship when we have medicare for all or some similar system.

Sure, if we bring in medicare for all or something similar it will cost the taxpayers, and including a few million illegals will raise the costs a bit- but so will checking for citizenship. However, now people can call 911 and get a paramedic or go to County general, and that costs the taxpayers even more. It's cheaper to cover illegals along with everyone else.
  #229  
Old 07-06-2019, 02:52 AM
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Look, overstaying your visit is a minor crime, on the level of speeding. Did the 55 mph speed limit incentivize criminal activity?

No, they are talking about not checking for citizenship when we have medicare for all or some similar system.

Sure, if we bring in medicare for all or something similar it will cost the taxpayers, and including a few million illegals will raise the costs a bit- but so will checking for citizenship. However, now people can call 911 and get a paramedic or go to County general, and that costs the taxpayers even more. It's cheaper to cover illegals along with everyone else.
That's a fine argument and all, but do you think it will matter in the sound-bite world of vote-grasping we have today? A Biden or Harris or Warren will come out and make all those arguments, but Trump will take 5 seconds to roll his eyes and say something about how Democrats want to give rapists, drug dealers, and criminals free health care before they bother helping real Americans. If American voters were thoughtful people in general, we wouldn't be in this mess.
  #230  
Old 07-06-2019, 05:32 AM
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If the argument is that previously Democratic voters are going to switch to Trump this time because the Dems are moving too far to the left, it kinda ignores the polling that a majority of voters favor progress on some of the big issues of the day. By fervently blocking any sort of governance which might help the average American, Republicans could be doing themselves equal harm in popularity. We might also be underplaying how disgust with Trump as a person is serving as a rallying point for his opposition.
The "(f)right wing" in this country is good at taking an issue that people kinda, sorta generally agree on and scaring moderates who barely follow politics into believing that they'll lose their job, lose their healthcare, pay more than they earn in taxes, or be abducted by space aliens if they vote for change.
  #231  
Old 07-06-2019, 05:40 AM
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You're gonna have to be a little more specific for me to understand what you're trying to say here. E.g., what will the ability to self promote mean to voter turnout?
It's not really the ability to self-promote. What we need to remember is that Donald Trump is the incumbent: he is the reality that people are experiencing. As long as people think their reality isn't that bad, as long as people have job stability, as long as they have confidence that things will turn out okay for them and their family over the next four years, Trump has the advantage - even if people really don't like him on a personal level.

The reason I think a healthy, vibrant, and 'with it' Joe Biden might be (at least in theory and on paper) the strongest challenger to Trump is that people remember what it was like when he was in the White House. Sure, he wasn't the president, but he was the wing man to a president who was much more liked on a personal level than this guy. He's like a co-star on a sitcom we used to love watching. The others are completely unknown. The question with Joe is, do people remember Joe as Obama's sidekick or do they see him as a washed-up old man? Perhaps the latter, which is not good news.

But regardless, I don't care what polls say now or how people feel about Trump's disposition: a sitting president has an immense advantage when things aren't that bad. Now if the economy tanks, or if we get into a foreign policy debacle, or if there's a botched response to a natural disaster, then that's a game-changer. I also think that if Trump ignores the Supreme Court's ruling and puts the citizenship question on the census form, that opens him up to a much stronger and more bipartisan case of impeachment on grounds of violating the constitution.

Last edited by asahi; 07-06-2019 at 05:43 AM.
  #232  
Old 07-06-2019, 07:38 AM
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The reason I think a healthy, vibrant, and 'with it' Joe Biden might be (at least in theory and on paper) the strongest challenger to Trump is that people remember what it was like when he was in the White House. Sure, he wasn't the president, but he was the wing man to a president who was much more liked on a personal level than this guy. He's like a co-star on a sitcom we used to love watching. The others are completely unknown.
Two problems with this:

1) The people who actually remember and cherish the good ole day Obama-Biden bromance aren’t Trump voters to begin with. They are solid D’s who will vote for the D nominee no matter what. Everyone else either resented that time because they hated having a Dem President or they only have a vague opinion about that time because national politics is not a TV show they regularly watch. The latter group is the type that can easily be convinced that 911, the Iraq war, and the 2008 recession all happened on Obama’s watch, because they are susceptible to lies and propaganda. We can not bank on them having nostalgic feel good memories about Biden, not in the era of disinformation campaigns.

2) The others at the top aren’t completely unknown, at least not anymore than Obama or Bill Clinton were. What they aren’t are two-time losers like Biden is. Knowing how Trump fights, I can imagine him getting mileage out of Biden’s previous failures. Calling him a low energy loser without any ideas of his own. Calling him a weak “wing man” to the most inferior POTUS in history. How will Biden counter these punches? By being nice and smiley? These are things to consider.

Last edited by you with the face; 07-06-2019 at 07:40 AM.
  #233  
Old 07-06-2019, 08:35 AM
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1) The people who actually remember and cherish the good ole day Obama-Biden bromance arenít Trump voters to begin with. They are solid Dís who will vote for the D nominee no matter what. Everyone else either resented that time because they hated having a Dem President or they only have a vague opinion about that time because national politics is not a TV show they regularly watch. The latter group is the type that can easily be convinced that 911, the Iraq war, and the 2008 recession all happened on Obamaís watch, because they are susceptible to lies and propaganda. We can not bank on them having nostalgic feel good memories about Biden, not in the era of disinformation campaigns.
There are Obama-to-Trump voters - they exist. They're rather small in number, I would agree, but they're just big enough to swing an election, which is what we're concerned with. I obviously can't guarantee that they would vote for Biden simply because he was part of the Obama White House, but I'm saying that this is an advantage that Biden brings to the table compared to others. People can see Biden in the White House because, you know, he's actually been in the White House.

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2) The others at the top arenít completely unknown, at least not anymore than Obama or Bill Clinton were. What they arenít are two-time losers like Biden is. Knowing how Trump fights, I can imagine him getting mileage out of Bidenís previous failures. Calling him a low energy loser without any ideas of his own. Calling him a weak ďwing manĒ to the most inferior POTUS in history. How will Biden counter these punches? By being nice and smiley? These are things to consider.
They're not unknown, but they're unknowns in terms of having served in executive office. They've never served in a presidential administration. They're less familiar with the rigors of the job. But more than that, voters are going to have a harder time placing them in that space more than they would Joe Biden -- in the beginning.

As you correctly point out, however, whether or not Biden lives up to that billing is another matter. I'm on record as having being rather skeptical of his chances to survive the primaries for all the reasons you and others have alluded to. And his disastrous debate performance only reaffirmed those concerns. As it is now, we're more than a week removed from the debates and pundits can't stop talking about how badly he performed, how he has slipped in the polls, how he has lost support in the black community, and how he looked old and confused. His campaign has been utterly unable to pivot away from that performance, which he desperately needs to do. I suspect that he might start to regain some footing just by virtue of the fact that news cycles do eventually pass, but all the signs I'm seeing right now are that Biden is running a really poor campaign relative to his opponents.

I guess what I was trying to articulate in the previous post is that the strongest type of democratic challenger would be a moderate (like Biden) but without all the baggage. I don't know that a viable candidate like this exists in the field and it's a potential problem for Dems as they approach the general.
  #234  
Old 07-06-2019, 10:14 AM
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There are Obama-to-Trump voters - they exist. They're rather small in number, I would agree, but they're just big enough to swing an election, which is what we're concerned with. ....
I don't want to repeat too much what I just posted in another thread (the "Hee Haw ..." one), but not too small (at least 5% of those who voted), concentrated in Rust Belt states that are critical, and each switched vote is worth twice as much a didn't turn out one. They are more than big enough to swing the election even though they are not the only way to do so. Overall big turnout of previously nonvoting blocs, like we saw in 2018, would also do it.

No you don't win even the third of them who disapprove of Trump back just because Biden was part of Obama's team, any more than he automatically gets back the Obama-nonvoters for that reason.

But it does give him a leg up on both that others don't have, and in any case you do seriously consider how to get both of those groups voting for the D choice whoever it is and think about them both when choosing whoever it is.
  #235  
Old 07-06-2019, 10:50 AM
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There are Obama-to-Trump voters - they exist. They're rather small in number, I would agree, but they're just big enough to swing an election, which is what we're concerned with. I obviously can't guarantee that they would vote for Biden simply because he was part of the Obama White House, but I'm saying that this is an advantage that Biden brings to the table compared to others. People can see Biden in the White House because, you know, he's actually been in the White House.



They're not unknown, but they're unknowns in terms of having served in executive office. They've never served in a presidential administration.
I think you may be forgetting how much weight 2016 Trump voters gave these issues. Hint: they voted for a man who loudly trumpteted his complete and utter lack of experience.

I don't think these voters think about the candidates like you and I think about the candidates. I think they think about them the way they think about prom king. A lot of it has to do with what you're going to say the next day at work, or next time you see your outspoken sister-in-law, or how you feel about America.

I admit I'm trapped in my own biases. Nobody who was paying attention and devoted to rationally selecting a president could have voted for Trump. Ergo, we have at least 60 million citizens who vote based on emotions, whims, sound bytes, visions, horoscopes, single issues that break R regardless of the candidate, or other factors.

The only R > D change we can hope for is the dissatisfied vote. It's pretty clear there are large numbers of dissatisfied Trump voters, at least. But they know that the RBG seat will likely be up for grabs, and probably others; they know that the Ds will raise taxes, and they're already feeling squeezed by the status quo (which, oddly, they do not blame on the Republicans).
  #236  
Old 07-06-2019, 11:25 AM
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Here's a wildcard: There are a lot of people who can't stand Trump, but who are not hard-core progressives. If the Dems nominate someone like Bernie or Elizabeth Warren, there will be a big hole in the middle which could easily attract a center-right Republican to challenge Trump for the nomination.

And Mitt Romney is tanned, rested and so far his main role in the Senate seems to be as a rhetorical foil to Trump. Michael Bloomberg or some other center-left bigwig might start thinking about an independent hid.

An election between Trump and Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren leaves a pretty big hole in the middle of the electorate.
This is a fantasy and one that doesn't even make sense at that. By the time Dems nominate someone, there is no time for another Republican to jump into the Republican race. The nomination contests happen at the same time.

The earliest a Dem could "lock it up" would be Super Tuesday. It would be impossible to jump in at that point and win the Republican nomination.

Plus... rank and file Republicans love Trump.
  #237  
Old 07-06-2019, 12:08 PM
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The only R > D change we can hope for is the dissatisfied vote. It's pretty clear there are large numbers of dissatisfied Trump voters, at least. But they know that the RBG seat will likely be up for grabs, and probably others; they know that the Ds will raise taxes, and they're already feeling squeezed by the status quo (which, oddly, they do not blame on the Republicans).
This is a good point. A lot of Trump-hating Republicans might end up voting for him if the idea of another conservative SCOTUS appointment excites them enough. To be so close to completely stacking the court is going to be a lot for them to walk away from, despite all their high-minded talk about how Trump embarrasses them. This is where extrapolating voting behavior in the 2018 mid-terms to 2020 becomes real risky.

Last edited by you with the face; 07-06-2019 at 12:08 PM.
  #238  
Old 07-06-2019, 02:10 PM
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This is a fantasy and one that doesn't even make sense at that. By the time Dems nominate someone, there is no time for another Republican to jump into the Republican race. The nomination contests happen at the same time.

The earliest a Dem could "lock it up" would be Super Tuesday. It would be impossible to jump in at that point and win the Republican nomination.

Plus... rank and file Republicans love Trump.

The suggestion you responded to was that a Never Trump Republican would run as an independent, not in the Republican primaries. Which means thereís at least a year before they need to decide. And someone rich like Romney could go from 0 to 100 in no time flat.
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Old 07-06-2019, 04:18 PM
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The suggestion you responded to was that a Never Trump Republican would run as an independent, not in the Republican primaries. Which means thereís at least a year before they need to decide. And someone rich like Romney could go from 0 to 100 in no time flat.
False.

"... there will be a big hole in the middle which could easily attract a center-right Republican to challenge Trump for the nomination."
  #240  
Old 07-06-2019, 05:35 PM
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False.

"... there will be a big hole in the middle which could easily attract a center-right Republican to challenge Trump for the nomination."
Or to run as an independent. I also mentioned a center-left politician like Bloomberg running an independent bid.

I shouldn't have said 'nomination'. That was me being sloppy. Trump's approval rating with rank and file Republicans is sky-high. I don't really see anyone serious mounting a primary challenge against him.

But we could easily see an independent candidate from either the center right or center left. That's what I meant by there being a big hole between Trump and say, Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.

Biden just had an interview with CNN that makes it pretty clear that he's trying to capture the center left. He came out against single payer health care, against open borders, and in general is promising another Obama-like administration, not a 'far left' (his words) administration.

This is probably why he's the front-runner, despite all his deficits and issues.
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Old 07-06-2019, 05:59 PM
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Right, so we all agree, the idea that another Republican wins the Republican nomination is a fantasy.
  #242  
Old 07-06-2019, 06:38 PM
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Right, so we all agree, the idea that another Republican wins the Republican nomination is a fantasy.
Unless trump isnt running, of course.
  #243  
Old 07-07-2019, 06:00 AM
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Right now, I'd say Trump's chances are north of 50%, and he might even win fairly and squarely without controversy.

He's an incumbent with a very strong economy and he's so far avoided the much-feared foreign policy clusterfuck.

By contrast, take a look at his Democratic competition. Simply put, it's increasingly no place for white moderates. Harris, Castro, and Booker are going to drive wedges between the Democratic party and independents if they're not careful, and both Warren and Sanders are competing for progressive voters with pie-in-the-sky proposals that are going to fall flat in more moderate counties across the country. It's early yet, but I hope that what's happening in the Democratic party now is just nothing more than shit candidates say just to get attention; otherwise, it'll be a disaster.
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Old 07-07-2019, 07:22 AM
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To follow up on a theme that I've mentioned before, this article kinda illustrates how Trump's hyper-partisan polarization can work.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...ection-1399248

Quote:
“Members are looking over their shoulders,” said Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.), the chairman of the House budget committee.
If the activist wing of the Democratic party goes full-on Freedom Caucus against its more moderate members, it's going to weaken the party over all. Identity politics could in some ways fracture the Democratic party and inflict more damage to the party than the anti-Obama madness did to the Republicans in the years 2011-13. Many on the Democratic party's activist left have taken the position that since partisanship worked for the Republicans, it follows that they should take a similarly hard line with moderates in their own party. What the activists fail to realize is, what 'worked' for Republicans - and some would point out it just barely 'worked' - won't work as well for Democrats. That's because Republicans have begun polarization according to demographics, which is a game that they can win if the Democrats follow them into the sewer and fight them down there. They can win because if politics gets broken down along racial and demographic lines, then it becomes a matter of which party has the biggest tribe. And the reality is that republicans are better suited to play tribal warfare. Democrats need to use their advantages of diversity to form broad coalitions that can work together effectively even if they disagree on the specifics.

If people like Ocasio-Cortez, Tlaib, Omar, and Pressley take the position that the Democratic party is the party of brown people and they're going to shove white moderates aside, they will alienate a lot of people. And they will lose. And we will all lose with them. And if you think Republicans have turned back the clock and thrown out the rule book now, wait for what comes next.

Last edited by asahi; 07-07-2019 at 07:25 AM.
  #245  
Old 07-07-2019, 09:31 AM
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If people like Ocasio-Cortez, Tlaib, Omar, and Pressley take the position that the Democratic party is the party of brown people and they're going to shove white moderates aside, they will alienate a lot of people. And they will lose. And we will all lose with them. And if you think Republicans have turned back the clock and thrown out the rule book now, wait for what comes next.
Takes two to tango. I donít think AOC et al. are really alienating people; they are actually doing a good job forming alliances with others (like Warren and Sanders) and keeping problems with the status quo on the front burner. But your basic point is sound. Bidenís people should heed it because if he keeps diminishing, patronizing, and ďotherizingĒ more progressive Dems like AOC, the stink of conservative (and racist) pandering is going to hurt his momentum.

See this article that Slacker posted in the other thread. Now is not the time to be saying shit like this.

Quote:
"That's what this election is about. I'm happy to debate that issue and all those issues with my friends because guess what, look who won the races. Look who won last time out," Biden said. "By the way, I think Ocasio-Cortez is a brilliant, bright woman, but she won a primary. In the general election fights, who won? Mainstream Democrats who are very progressive on social issues and very strong on education and healthcare."
Never mind that she did more than win a primary (which was a notable feat in and of itself), why is he acting like heís running against her to be the Dem nominee for President? Itís like heís drinking from the same FoxNews water hose that keeps everyone on the right obsessed with her.
  #246  
Old 07-07-2019, 10:31 AM
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She won a primary in a district in which winning a Democratic win in the general is a given. Biden's point is valid: across the country it was mostly mainstream Democrats who won in swingable contested districts.

He has a balance to hit here in how he makes that case though. He cannot and should not inauthentically pander to the hard Left. He won't win their votes in the primaries in any case and trying to appease them only makes him come off as weak or "feeble", which he cannot afford. He needs to strongly advocate for the mainstream positions he believes knowing that most are paying more attention to the how he defends the positions than even what those positions are. On the other he cannot afford to hit so hard that he loses turnout in the general. HRC was in a similar circumstance and ended up erring on giving Sanders too much kid gloves which hurt her more than it helped. He should not make the mistake she made of treading excessively lightly with that end of the party. He has to disagree respectfully but strongly and firmly, arguing clearly that mainstream wins the purple and maybe even the pink. Winning in deep Blue is not how one beats Trump.

Disrespect he saves for Trump and Trumpism.
  #247  
Old 07-07-2019, 10:32 AM
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This seems to be what people ALWAYS say to those on the Left. "Hush! You'll alienate the moderates! Just be quiet and appease the center, and eventually, you'll... get nothing." On the Right, on the other hand, a relatively small band of extremists have dragged the party after them. As a result, the center of both parties has moved considerably to the right over the last 30 years.

I don't want the two parties to be hyper-left and hyper right, but I do want to know why the double standard. Why can't the Democrats stake their territory to the left of the center? Why can't we drag the overton window back to the left?
  #248  
Old 07-07-2019, 10:47 AM
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... why the double standard. Why can't the Democrats stake their territory to the left of the center? Why can't we drag the overton window back to the left?
Some of us see the state of the GOP and the impact of it on our country and our politics as a cautionary tale, not as a role model.

That "some" includes many with hard progressive beliefs even.

And most of us understands that winning back the Presidency and having a chance at winning the Senate is how any movement in the direction from here that those from far Left to Center all want to go, is what matter.

A Far Left party would be a small minority party. By itself it can accomplish nothing. Working with the larger numbers who are center Left it can and has pulled the window of the party toward it (many mainstream positions had not been mainstream eight years ago) and get a good number of their goals met.

The structural factors that lead to disproportionate power of the Far Right do not exist for the Far Left. Gerrymandering is only a small part of it.
  #249  
Old 07-07-2019, 10:59 AM
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She won a primary in a district in which winning a Democratic win in the general is a given. Biden's point is valid: across the country it was mostly mainstream Democrats who won in swingable contested districts.
Yes but it doesn’t need to be said. Diminishing the accomplishment of a young female minority just to argue the (dry) case for moderates is not politically savvy. It doesn’t matter if it’s a “valid” point. Likening Trump’s detention centers to concentration camps is a valid point too, but it is not smart politicking for a presidential candidate to hammer this message.

Quote:
He has a balance to hit here in how he makes that case though.He cannot and should not inauthentically pander to the hard Left.
He doesn’t have to pander hard to the Left. He just needs to avoid inflaming the Left against him. Taking shots at AOC (who, I have to reiterate, is not even in this race) is exactly the type of play that creates Bernie bro-type dissenters in the general.

If y’all can’t see this is 2016 all over again, Lord Jesus help us.

Last edited by you with the face; 07-07-2019 at 11:00 AM.
  #250  
Old 07-07-2019, 11:05 AM
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The problem with trying to learn from history is that we sometimes see it teaching different lessons ...
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