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  #201  
Old 08-01-2019, 09:09 AM
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I wouldn't go as far as 'bumbling' or 'forgetful', bit Biden does seem to have lost some of his edge. I like him generally, but this just doesn't seem like his time to me.


Also, I can't remember who said it, but I really did not like, "We are gonna tax the hell out of the rich!" Please don't run on that, it sounds like you are doing it for its own sake. How about, "We are going to pay as we go, and tax progressively"? Or some variation of that. I am no Grover Norquist, but there needs to be a solid reason to raise taxes.
  #202  
Old 08-01-2019, 09:13 AM
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It's just treated as the courteous thing to do. Jimmy Carter hasn't been President for almost 40 years but if you talk to him he is President Carter or Mr President because that's what we all know him for. To people of Georgia he was their Governor but he was not my Governor. He was our President.

Mr Carter just sounds off.
Ehh, I think it's lazy/ ignorant journalists.

Mr. Carter sounds just fine. Mr./ Ms. sounds fine for former anybodys.
  #203  
Old 08-01-2019, 09:21 AM
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Game shows have the rule "I've started so I'll finish," yet candidates for President get 30 seconds to answer a question, then get hit for lacking substance.
Unfortunately, it has to be this way. Many politicians are the "give them an inch and they'll take a mile" type. You let them ramble beyond the limit, they will take advantage of that loophole and cheerfully keep talking on and on.

It then becomes unfair to the candidates who dutifully do abide by the 30-second time limit and don't get to express themselves as fully as the ones who go on for 50 or 60 seconds.

Last edited by Velocity; 08-01-2019 at 09:23 AM.
  #204  
Old 08-01-2019, 09:43 AM
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Does anyone other than Miss Manners think ex-Presidents are not properly addressed as "President"? Has any ex-President since Teddy Roosevelt wanted it that way? General usage is proper usage, as long as it's respectful.

Pity that Gabbard, Inslee, Hickenlooper, and Castro are all reaching the end of this line, but there are other Offices In Search Of Candidates they should look to. Some other people have added some color but just need to quit clogging the discussion, especially those who didn't even qualify (it's too late, sorry). Biden, Sanders, and probably Warren have missed their windows, Biden in particular is leaking air now. Harris too, after her criminal rights record is now out there. I'm ready to place a chip or two on Booker and Buttigieg.
  #205  
Old 08-01-2019, 09:58 AM
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Not another proscriptive/descriptive discussion!!!

Mind you I love me some good pedantry but really?

As to talking over time limits ... You either have rules that are enforced within some degree of reason or just let people ramble on because they insist "No, this is important!" Finishing the sentence is one thing. Going on for longer than that when others are respecting the agreed to and being enforced rules is being a cheat.

Biden will neither win or lose support from this. It was good enough that those predisposed to him won't jump ship (another first debate level would have resulted in that) but bad enough that no one will switch to him or become more firmly in his camp than they were.
  #206  
Old 08-01-2019, 10:04 AM
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I think Biden 'won' just by fighting back more, so I'm not sure I'd agree that he 'muffed it' last night. However, more than once, the thought that flashed in my mind was that he looks old. He looks like he's a forgetful, bumbling old man, and I don't like saying that about Biden because I think he's basically a decent guy. But decency alone ain't gonna beat Trump. Say what one will about Mango Mussolini, but for a 73-year-old man he comes across as younger and more energetic than even some people 10 years his junior, mainly attributable to his brusque, occasionally vulgar speaking style. He's 73 but sometimes sounds like an 18-year-old frat boy. It would be a bad contrast to have a menacing, aggressive Trump hectoring an aging, bumbling Biden on a debate stage.
That's my concern based on two of Biden's performances in debates thus far. That he won't come off significantly better against the dumpster fire and people will be turned off leading to another trump win, because of electorate ambivalence.

I think Miller tried to convince me of that in another thread. I see his point now.
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  #207  
Old 08-01-2019, 10:10 AM
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Biden also did not help himself at all by pointing out the cost of Medicare For All without also noting that it's a net savings from the current (non)system. Harris tried, and got it out eventually, but the soundbite is there now.
  #208  
Old 08-01-2019, 10:24 AM
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Booker definitely elevated himself to consideration among the top dogs last night. Still too early to call it, but I think Booker, Harris, and Warren are in the strongest position at this point. Biden still on top in the polls but he seems to be losing momentum fast. He’s in the Jeb Bush position.
  #209  
Old 08-01-2019, 11:30 AM
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... Biden still on top in the polls but he seems to be losing momentum fast. ...
Whether or not he will lose momentum (to the degree he has any momentum per se) is a matter of each of us to speculate on. But a claim that he is currently losing momentum fast is a simple untruth. His last period of polling was him on a upswing back to his baseline from a dip after debate one.

There is one candidate with fairly consistent positive momentum, Warren, and I don't think she will lose it after this. Neither will it gain her much additional steam.
  #210  
Old 08-01-2019, 11:31 AM
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Have you seen any polls taken since last night?
  #211  
Old 08-01-2019, 11:34 AM
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To the best of my knowledge there have not been any released. Have you seen any? "Current" is as current data demonstrates. Anything else is a speculation of the future.

FWIW I doubt Booker elevated himself. I don't think his attacks landed well and to many will reflect worse on him than on his target. But that is speculation, not a statement of what current is.

Last edited by DSeid; 08-01-2019 at 11:36 AM.
  #212  
Old 08-01-2019, 11:37 AM
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You're leaving out the most, and most relevant, data with that pronunciamento, namely last night's debate. But do go on.
  #213  
Old 08-01-2019, 11:48 AM
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How that debate will play out visa vis "momentum" is a speculation about the future.

If you want to play that as a data point then I'll play. It is pretty widely accepted that his performance in this debate was better than his performance in debate one. He has moved from one level of performance to a level higher than that level. That is positive momentum.

Of course that is not the momentum we are talking about. We are talking about movement in level and/or strength of support. The most current data on that is positive momentum for him but such a conclusion is looking too closely at the trend lines - he is with some bumps pretty flat. My guess is he will he have more noise in his line but stay flat. The question to me is if Warren can consolidate the undecideds and others enough to catch and pass him. She will if he fumbles again as badly as he did in debate one I am pretty sure. But barring that I doubt it.
  #214  
Old 08-01-2019, 11:51 AM
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This is quite delusional. In what way are they going to 'Eat him alive?' Republicans consider him and Warren their greatest threat.
Not at all, in fact Russian trolls helped Bernie.

The GOP would LOVE to see Sanders as the candidate.

They consider Biden their greatest threat.

It is very easy to figure this- who is getting the most attacks? Even here? (I am not sure if we have any Russian trolls, but I know we have a few GOPers).

You dont think the kremlin could whip up a Communist Party ID card for Sanders? Maybe find some pics of him at a Commie rally in his past?
  #215  
Old 08-01-2019, 11:55 AM
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Not at all, in fact Russian trolls helped Bernie.

The GOP would LOVE to see Sanders as the candidate.

They consider Biden their greatest threat.

It is very easy to figure this- who is getting the most attacks? Even here? (I am not sure if we have any Russian trolls, but I know we have a few GOPers).

You dont think the kremlin could whip up a Communist Party ID card for Sanders? Maybe find some pics of him at a Commie rally in his past?
Did you see the debate? Looks like the candidates were attacking Biden/Obama more than anything else. Do you think the Russians are financing Booker, Harris, and DiBlasio?
  #216  
Old 08-01-2019, 11:58 AM
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You dont think the kremlin could whip up a Communist Party ID card for Sanders? Maybe find some pics of him at a Commie rally in his past?
Frankly, I do doubt it. The praise of the Sandanistas and getting drunk on his honeymoon in Russia are out there already. Doubt anyone is sitting on a Commie rally video.
  #217  
Old 08-01-2019, 12:05 PM
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Did you see the debate? Looks like the candidates were attacking Biden/Obama more than anything else. Do you think the Russians are financing Booker, Harris, and DiBlasio?
It's a stupid ploy to attack Obama in order to attack Biden. If you want to ensure Biden takes ownership of the mistakes of 2009-17 there's a way to do that doesn't flat out take on the Obama presidency more than the Trump presidency.

Obama is the most popular Democrat by a country mile. We are witnessing Trump tear apart his accomplishments out of spite. So for some candidates to see this and say "it wasn't that good anyway" is a fallacy.

TPP for example would have needed to be renegoatiated anyway at some point if Hillary were in the White House now because these deals always need to be updated for the changing circumstances of the day. Saying it was a bad deal in the first place is a Republican talking point.
  #218  
Old 08-01-2019, 12:16 PM
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Debate was more comfortable to watch than the last.

Good:
Booker was manic as usual, but with less anger, and stomped on Joe like a lit cigarette. Yang had a few good rehearsed lines- including one mocking rehearsed lines. Gabbard improved quite a bit, a woman of good character and morals.

Bad:
Biden was a rag doll. Harris was bored and got blasted by Gabbard. Castro was polished but hollow. Gillibrand was an embarrassing mom on Xanax. Bennett is a moo cow. DiBlasio was an indulgent clown (really NYC?). Inslee was your friend’s annoying little brother
  #219  
Old 08-01-2019, 12:58 PM
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Bad:
Biden was a rag doll. Harris was bored and got blasted by Gabbard. Castro was polished but hollow. Gillibrand was an embarrassing mom on Xanax. Bennett is a moo cow. DiBlasio was an indulgent clown (really NYC?). Inslee was your friend’s annoying little brother
For being such a boring MF, Inslee is kind of fascinating as a candidate. He's got good progressive successes under his belt, and Washington is really two entirely different states: semiarid climate & agricultural in the east, marine climate & shipping/transportation/metropolitan on the west; Nuclear and hydroelectric infrastructures. And it's a border state .

I have had quite enough of NYC belligerence. DeBlasio could be the best of Obama/Clinton/Kennedy, and that accent and swagger would drive me away.
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  #220  
Old 08-01-2019, 01:46 PM
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They're not out of touch, I've heard this crap before with Trump, and then he won.
That's my point.
  #221  
Old 08-01-2019, 02:32 PM
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For being such a boring MF, Inslee is kind of fascinating as a candidate.
I often count boring as a positive in a candidate - I mostly prefer policy wonks . Sadly, I get that the electorate as a whole does not.

Ah, well - at this point, barring a catastrophic fumble, I think a Biden presidential candidacy is starting to approach inevitability. Not my preference, but better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

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  #222  
Old 08-01-2019, 02:41 PM
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This is quite delusional. In what way are they going to 'Eat him alive?' Republicans consider [Bernie] and Warren their greatest threat.
No, please, don't throw me in that briar patch!
  #223  
Old 08-01-2019, 02:49 PM
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I often count boring as a positive in a candidate - I mostly prefer policy wonks . Sadly, I get that the electorate as a whole does not.

Ah, well - at this point, barring a catastrophic fumble, I think a Biden presidential candidacy is starting to approach inevitability. Not my preference, but better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.
I'm not ready to go there yet. As he's been in the lead since the beginning, I can understand such a view. But, assuming Warren, Sanders, and Harris stay at the top as they are now, I'd want to see where each's supporters go when only one of them is left standing, being that they represent the more progressive wing of the Democratic party, while Biden is much closer to the center.
  #224  
Old 08-01-2019, 02:54 PM
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Ah, well - at this point, barring a catastrophic fumble, I think a Biden presidential candidacy is starting to approach inevitability. Not my preference, but better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.
It was his to lose from the beginning, and I don't see anyone ready enough for prime time to take it away from him. However, he is a gaffe machine and he is getting older. I wouldn't describe him as feeble or having dementia, but he has lost a couple of steps.

Harris is almost there, but she allowed herself to get flustered. You could tell that the attacks were working because she was in an unfamiliar position. As a prosecutor, she is used to attacking and she looked like an amateur when she got nailed.

Booker is an Obama wanna-be, but he just is missing something. He, again, is almost there, but he seems like he just did a giant line of crank off of the podium ten seconds prior to answering any question. The dude is always amped up to the max and is exhausting to listen to. I'll bet he would tell his doctor about his bowel movement that morning in the same anxiety filled way.

Gillibrand is just a one trick pony: women, women, women, women having abortions, women. Biden nailed her and made her look terrible for bringing up his old op-ed.

I was impressed with Tulsi Gabbard, but I think only her family has heard of her. And she's just too damn nice to make it this cycle.

Everyone but Biden has a fatal flaw. Biden is the only one that is ready. I don't think that portends well for Dems because of his age. If Biden was 15 years younger, Trump should be scared.
  #225  
Old 08-01-2019, 03:08 PM
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No, please, don't throw me in that briar patch!
Hahaha...why I do believe references of that sort are nigh on criminal these days. Pity.
  #226  
Old 08-01-2019, 03:17 PM
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Not at all, in fact Russian trolls helped Bernie.

The GOP would LOVE to see Sanders as the candidate.

They consider Biden their greatest threat.

It is very easy to figure this- who is getting the most attacks? Even here? (I am not sure if we have any Russian trolls, but I know we have a few GOPers).

You dont think the kremlin could whip up a Communist Party ID card for Sanders? Maybe find some pics of him at a Commie rally in his past?
By what percentage? 0.00001% or 0.0000000000000001%?

Sanders is popular without Russian interference, Sanders is popular due to horrific policies such as a progressive tax rate on the rich or healthcare free at the point of use which all other developed nations have a version of.

The Dems probably LOVED it when Trump won the primary, and then were subsequently horrified when he won.
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  #227  
Old 08-01-2019, 03:27 PM
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Looking ahead, only 7 candidates have already qualified for the September round. It's not going to be easy for any others to reach the hurdles, although O'Rourke has, granted. These might be your semifinalists for reals:

Former Vice President Joe Biden
New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker
South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg
California Sen. Kamala Harris
Former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren

Also,
Quote:
Businessman Andrew Yang and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro have met the donor threshold as of this month but have not met the polling threshold.
Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar has met the polling threshold but need additional donors.

Last edited by ElvisL1ves; 08-01-2019 at 03:29 PM.
  #228  
Old 08-01-2019, 06:10 PM
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But, assuming Warren, Sanders, and Harris stay at the top as they are now, I'd want to see where each's supporters go when only one of them is left standing, being that they represent the more progressive wing of the Democratic party, while Biden is much closer to the center.
That makes sense and no doubt that's the hope. I'm just not sure that a.) a unified progressive wing will coalesce and b.) that all of them would unify behind one of these three. I mean I suspect Harris for example is getting some centrist support herself as a "moderate" ex-prosecutor.

But you're right I shouldn't be so fatalistic, it's still pretty early in the silly season. A lot could still change.
  #229  
Old 08-01-2019, 06:22 PM
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... Also, I can't remember who said it, but I really did not like, "We are gonna tax the hell out of the rich!" Please don't run on that, it sounds like you are doing it for its own sake. How about, "We are going to pay as we go, and tax progressively"? Or some variation of that. I am no Grover Norquist, but there needs to be a solid reason to raise taxes.
At this stage it's still just a minority of American voters who are paying attention. And that minority tends to be of the type recently described as "woke Twitter." These are the folks who are making donations and otherwise keeping these candidates afloat.

So they are the ones being appealed to with bad-for-the-general positions such as "tax the hell out of the rich"; Woke Twitter loves that stuff.
  #230  
Old 08-01-2019, 07:10 PM
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At this stage it's still just a minority of American voters who are paying attention. And that minority tends to be of the type recently described as "woke Twitter." These are the folks who are making donations and otherwise keeping these candidates afloat.

So they are the ones being appealed to with bad-for-the-general positions such as "tax the hell out of the rich"; Woke Twitter loves that stuff.
People watch highlights and commentary on the debates. If only woke twitter was paying attention, there would be zero movement in the polls after a debate.
  #231  
Old 08-01-2019, 07:56 PM
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By what percentage? 0.00001% or 0.0000000000000001%?
....

The Dems probably LOVED it when Trump won the primary, and then were subsequently horrified when he won.
Maybe by nothing. But they did during 2016, it's a fact.

Yep. yep.
  #232  
Old 08-01-2019, 08:01 PM
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No. It's not. And no. We don't.
Tell that to Jimmy Carter, who served on nuclear submarines (but was not, I just discovered, a nuclear engineer).

I grew up in Minnesota in the 1960s and 1970s, and I pronounce it nuk-u-lar, and I assume that is because most every one around me was saying it the same way.
  #233  
Old 08-01-2019, 08:18 PM
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People watch highlights and commentary on the debates. If only woke twitter was paying attention, there would be zero movement in the polls after a debate.
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At this stage it's still just a minority of American voters who are paying attention. And that minority tends to be of the type recently described as "woke Twitter." These are the folks who are making donations and otherwise keeping these candidates afloat.

So they are the ones being appealed to with bad-for-the-general positions such as "tax the hell out of the rich"; Woke Twitter loves that stuff.
My emphasis. I didn't claim "only".
  #234  
Old 08-01-2019, 08:37 PM
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I think my point still stands. If a significant number of people weren't paying attention, we wouldn't have seen the bumps and troughs that happened after the last debate. I don't think they are super important, polling changes seem mostly transient, but a wide group of people must be paying attention. Otherwise, we must assume that pollsters are only contacting a minority that tends to be of the type recently described as "woke Twitter."

Last edited by CarnalK; 08-01-2019 at 08:39 PM.
  #235  
Old 08-01-2019, 08:41 PM
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It's not going to be easy for any others to reach the hurdles, although O'Rourke has, granted.
Take it with a grain of salt, but Klobuchar's campaign is saying she's close on the fundraising piece. Since it's number of donors not dollar totals she can still push the send me a dollar type campaign that some candidates have used. She could even go full Gillibrand and run a small donor pay for access lottery. (Gillibrand held a drawing from among donors to have a whiskey with her.) The poll requirement is harder to influence without a lot of cash to throw around. Unless someone back in the pack found an audience during this week's debates they may well be done.

We'll see. If her campaign isn't lying Klobuchar's path to the Sept. debate probably isn't that hard. I threw her a dollar today just to try and keep her on the debate stage.
  #236  
Old 08-01-2019, 09:02 PM
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What the hell was that Joe 30303 thing that Biden mentioned at the end?
Isn't that the year that everything we think do and say is in the pill we took today?
  #237  
Old 08-01-2019, 09:26 PM
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Bernie belongs in the Muppet Show balcony, not running for president. Republicans would eat him alive and spit out the bones.
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This is quite delusional. In what way are they going to 'Eat him alive?' Republicans consider him and Warren their greatest threat.
You mean Bernie "honeymooned in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics where he sang This Land Is Your Land, This Land Is My Land with his Soviet hosts" Sanders?

The only Republican who doesn't want to run against Bernie Sanders is a candidate for City Council in Berkeley, California.
  #238  
Old 08-01-2019, 11:26 PM
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No. It's not. And no. We don't.
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Tell that to Jimmy Carter, who served on nuclear submarines (but was not, I just discovered, a nuclear engineer).
Well, I served on nuclear submarines and was actually a nuclear-trained engineer, and I don't pronounce it that way. It's pronounced /ˈn(y)o͞o-klē-ər/.

The first two syllables of nuclear /ˈn(y)o͞o-klē-ər/ and nucleus /ˈn(y)o͞o-klē-əs/ are pronounced the same. The /yo͞o/ sound is simply not there in the second syllable in either word.

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I grew up in Minnesota in the 1960s and 1970s, and I pronounce it nuk-u-lar, and I assume that is because most every one around me was saying it the same way.
Well, you're all pronouncing it wrong, then. (Or to be charitable, you're all using a nonstandard pronunciation.) The second /yo͞o/ in the nonstandard pronunciation likely arose by metathesis.
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Old 08-01-2019, 11:57 PM
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Well, I served on nuclear submarines and was actually a nuclear-trained engineer, and I don't pronounce it that way. It's pronounced /ˈn(y)o͞o-klē-ər/.
.......
As the preferred but not only pronunciation.

Regional dialects are a thing.
  #240  
Old 08-02-2019, 12:09 AM
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You mean Bernie "honeymooned in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics where he sang This Land Is Your Land, This Land Is My Land with his Soviet hosts" Sanders?

The only Republican who doesn't want to run against Bernie Sanders is a candidate for City Council in Berkeley, California.
But as Bernie has explained many times, that’s fake news. He didn’t honeymoon in the Soviet Union, jeez. He just went to the Soviet Union with his wife immediately after his wedding and called it a “honeymoon” many times after that, until shortly before he ran for president when he set the record straight. It’s amazing, the lies the MSM will tell to try to stop progress in this country, and prop up the big banks or something.


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If he gets the nomination, the Republicans are going to paint a hammer and sickle on his forehead. He's a self-identified socialist. Uneducated white male voters are going to cash their socialist Social Security checks, drive on the socialist roads to see a doctor using their socialist Medicare, take a crap into the socialist sewer system, and then go to the precinct to vote against socialism. It's stupid as all hell, but so are they.

Ayup. And then the Bernie backers will complain about the mainstream media selling them out, and also somehow the DNC and Democratic donors decided they would rather have Trump to preserve their Wall Street perqs, so they sacrificed Bernie, blah blah blah. Anything but admit that Bernie does the opposite of packaging progressive policies in a palatable way.


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Originally Posted by ElvisL1ves View Post
Does anyone other than Miss Manners think ex-Presidents are not properly addressed as “President”? Has any ex-President since Teddy Roosevelt wanted it that way? General usage is proper usage, as long as it's respectful.

This.


Quote:
Originally Posted by WillFarnaby View Post
Gillibrand was an embarrassing mom on Xanax.

LOL! I cringed so hard for those long moments while she tried to get it together after being surprised to be called on. What I kept thinking of, more than Gillibrand herself, is what her campaign staffers watching in the wings must have been thinking and saying to each other.


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Originally Posted by Inigo Montoya View Post
For being such a boring MF, Inslee is kind of fascinating as a candidate. He's got good progressive successes under his belt, and Washington is really two entirely different states: semiarid climate & agricultural in the east, marine climate & shipping/transportation/metropolitan on the west; Nuclear and hydroelectric infrastructures. And it's a border state .

I have had quite enough of NYC belligerence. DeBlasio could be the best of Obama/Clinton/Kennedy, and that accent and swagger would drive me away.

I don’t find him boring, and I think he is the best qualified candidate running. Not only does he have excellent executive experience, but he was in Congress for a while too so he knows the federal government. He is also a former jock who is very tall and imposing. I think he would be the safest bet to beat Trump, as long as he had a diverse running mate.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Happy Lendervedder View Post
Stylistically, I think Booker is the best suited to take on Trump and win. He is smooth on his feet, he can hit his opponents hard and remain likable, he can verbally battle, and he's physically huge (and shit like this matters to Trump). There's just something I like about him, and I think his style could appeal to the midwestern blue collar households. I just think he focuses too much on stuff that's meant to win the black vote in the primary, rather than the electoral vote in the general. And if he keeps on focusing on "race stuff," he's just creating the GOP's talking points for them.

I agree with you about both his pros and cons; however, I think he would pivot effectively in the general election. He would still visit black neighborhoods to drum up turnout, but the rhetoric we are hearing now would disappear, guaranteed.


There are a number of candidates running who could be very good nominees, but almost all of them are mired in the low single digits. Democrats say beating Trump is the most important thing this year, but either they are not acting like it or they don’t really understand what that entails.


Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDeth View Post
Biden also struggled in several answers to spit out the right words at the right time. And he continued to stop himself in mid-thought and immediately stop talking when his time ran out. Add it all up and I believe that Biden wound up doing *just* enough to quiet -- if not silence -- questions about whether he is up to the job. That, plus Harris' struggles, get the former vice president into the "win" column. Barely.

I’m glad someone in the media pointed this out.


Quote:
Originally Posted by asahi View Post
It's hard to know just how accurate it is, but if Google Trends are any indication, it appears that the 2nd debate was a flop compared to the previous night. None of the candidates generated much buzz.

Interesting. This matches up with what I said to my wife immediately after the debate which was that it was the most boring of the four so far.


Quote:
Originally Posted by asahi View Post
FWIW, the candidates who passed my eye test in terms of making the most of their speaking opportunities, I'd have to say that Gillibrand, Yang, and Gabbard earned that distinction. All three were given more speaking time and made the most of it. Gillibrand was especially impressive in terms of substance.

Wait, what? Gillibrand stood out in passing your “eye test”? Are the letters on that test 10 feet tall?


Quote:
Originally Posted by asahi View Post
Is it just me or is Castro doing a Barack Obama impersonation? He's pausing and saying "Uh" just like Barry used to.

I don’t see it, but my wife said the exact same thing! She will feel validated when I tell her this.
  #241  
Old 08-02-2019, 12:13 AM
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Originally Posted by robby View Post
... Well, you're all pronouncing it wrong, then. (Or to be charitable, you're all using a nonstandard pronunciation.) ...
🎵 Oh let's call the whole thing off! 🎵
  #242  
Old 08-02-2019, 12:35 AM
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How that debate will play out visa vis "momentum" is a speculation about the future. ...
FWIW there is a hint of data out now: the difference in the HarrisX polling results from 7/29 - 31 and 7/30 - 8/1 (most easily appreciated in the 538 poll tracker).

The difference of moving the 3 day result window into one that included a day after the second debate was ... (drumroll) ... Biden staying stable with Sanders losing 1%, Warren gaining 1%, and Harris not moving. Next rung Buttigieg dropped 1 and Booker gained 1%. Note this is one day of post debate polling out of three move of the needle. So yeah so far my prediction that
Quote:
Biden stays put. Warren moves up closer. Harris and Sanders both fall off some. Not sure if anyone else moves at all, maybe a little shift from Buttigieg to another that has no chance.
is not so off. Harris didn't drop (so far) but otherwise on the money. (Go me!) Let's see what more polling brings!
  #243  
Old 08-02-2019, 12:56 AM
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Warren or Bernie needs to take the other out, or Biden wins. I don't know how much time they have but I wouldn't wait much longer.
  #244  
Old 08-02-2019, 01:02 AM
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Careful, DSeid. Don't move into bug eating territory.
  #245  
Old 08-02-2019, 05:21 AM
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What’s surprising about De Blasio’s “tax the hell” line is that he is the mayor of a city where so many very rich people live.
  #246  
Old 08-02-2019, 07:59 AM
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That isn't who voted for him, and won't the next time, either. There are many more New Yorkers who sympathize with The Rent Is Too Damn High Party but will vote Democratic.
  #247  
Old 08-02-2019, 09:11 AM
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But usually even liberal NYC mayors don’t so blatantly dare all those billionaires who provide a huge chunk of their tax base to “Go Galt” (which here simply involves moving five miles west to Hoboken or Jersey City).
  #248  
Old 08-02-2019, 09:20 AM
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But usually even liberal NYC mayors don’t so blatantly dare all those billionaires who provide a huge chunk of their tax base to “Go Galt” (which here simply involves moving five miles west to Hoboken or Jersey City).
I love Hoboken and Jersey City (tasty ethnic food at low prices!), but if you think New York billionaires would ever move there, I have a couple of bridges to sell you.
  #249  
Old 08-02-2019, 09:24 AM
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Also, NYC taxes are based on where you work, not where you live. Unless Wall Street relocates to Hoboken, I think the City will be fine.
  #250  
Old 08-02-2019, 09:27 AM
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And, that demographic is capable of understanding and dismissing campaign rhetoric vs. actual policy efforts.
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