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Old 03-01-2020, 05:17 PM
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Pete Buttigieg drops out of the Democratic primary race


https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...036_story.html

Pretty shocking he did it now and didn't wait until Super Tuesday.

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Old 03-01-2020, 05:20 PM
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Old 03-01-2020, 05:23 PM
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I can't believe Klobuchar outlasted him.
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Old 03-01-2020, 05:53 PM
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I can't believe Klobuchar outlasted him.
He’s essentially gotten all the delegates he’s likely to, while Amy is going to pick some up in MN. I assume she’ll drop out after Tuesday.
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Old 03-01-2020, 05:25 PM
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I like Booty-Judge. He now has a war chest of donations to use for his next campaign; I’m guessing a run for the US house in 2022.
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Old 03-01-2020, 05:39 PM
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I like Booty-Judge. He now has a war chest of donations to use for his next campaign; I’m guessing a run for the US house in 2022.
Wouldn't a house run be a step down for someone who tied for first in Iowa?

He may be hoping for a cabinet position or a high position within the dnc.

He would do good at either I'm sure.
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Old 03-01-2020, 07:32 PM
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Wouldn't a house run be a step down for someone who tied for first in Iowa?
It's a step down for a Presidential candidate. It's a step up for a former Presidential candidate.

Buttigieg is young. I think he was using this campaign to introduce himself on the national stage. Now that people know who he is, he can start from a stronger position the next time he runs for President.

But to have a next time, he needs to maintain an active career in politics. So a seat in Congress would be a good move for him now. It allows him to maintain his own agency in a way a cabinet position wouldn't. And let's fact facts, there's no assurance whoever the Democratic nominee ends up being will win the election and have any cabinet positions to offer.
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Old 03-01-2020, 05:41 PM
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I like Booty-Judge. He now has a war chest of donations to use for his next campaign; I’m guessing a run for the US house in 2022.
Or the Senate. Republican Todd Young's term ends in 2022.

With Pete's new level of name-recognition, a Senate run would seem a natural. Particularly if the Democrat wins the White House and gives Pete a high-profile job (Cabinet or otherwise).

Last edited by Sherrerd; 03-01-2020 at 05:42 PM.
  #9  
Old 03-02-2020, 10:38 AM
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I like Booty-Judge...
I've always heard his name pronounced 'Buddha-judge' -- until a couple/few weeks ago, when I was listening to a story on NPR. The woman repeatedly pronounced his name 'Buttah-gig'. Drove me nuts. (Not that it's that long a drive to nuttiness.)
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Old 03-01-2020, 05:28 PM
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Mayor Pete has much to offer the Democratic party going forward. I hope his talents will be well utilized by our next Democratic administration in one capacity or another.

I'm not that surprised he suspended. I listened to him speak last night after South Carolina and half expected him to make the announcement then and there. I suspect the only reason he held off was to give Steyer the chance to do it first.

Klobuchar can't be far behind.
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Old 03-01-2020, 09:54 PM
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Mayor Pete has much to offer the Democratic party going forward. I hope his talents will be well utilized by our next Democratic administration in one capacity or another.
....
Yeah, Pete needs to get some national experience under his belt. Maybe the next Dem prez can give him a cabinet position or he can run for senate or something.

Mayor Pete in 2028!
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Old 03-02-2020, 12:38 PM
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Mayor Pete has much to offer the Democratic party going forward. I hope his talents will be well utilized by our next Democratic administration in one capacity or another.

I'm not that surprised he suspended. I listened to him speak last night after South Carolina and half expected him to make the announcement then and there. I suspect the only reason he held off was to give Steyer the chance to do it first.

Klobuchar can't be far behind.
Right on time.
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Old 03-01-2020, 05:30 PM
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Wow. Really surprised he didn't wait till super Tuesday.
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Old 03-01-2020, 05:36 PM
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Sorry to hear this. I liked him from the start. Listening to him speak on just about any topic is such a contrast to Trump or (I hate to say) Biden. I'll vote for whoever the Dems decide on. Is Gabbard still in? I would be holding my nose while voting for her.
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Old 03-01-2020, 06:00 PM
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Sorry to hear this. I liked him from the start. Listening to him speak on just about any topic is such a contrast to Trump or (I hate to say) Biden. I'll vote for whoever the Dems decide on. Is Gabbard still in? I would be holding my nose while voting for her.
I don't think you have to worry about that one. She's in the "forgotten but not gone" category.
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Old 03-01-2020, 05:31 PM
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I wonder if the person I'm voting for on Super Tuesday, Elizabeth Warren, will suspend afterward. She's not expected to win any of the Super Tuesday states, and she hasn't picked up any delegates yet.
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Old 03-01-2020, 06:00 PM
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I wonder if the person I'm voting for on Super Tuesday, Elizabeth Warren, will suspend afterward. She's not expected to win any of the Super Tuesday states, and she hasn't picked up any delegates yet.
Liz has 8 delegates.
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Old 03-01-2020, 05:44 PM
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I'm glad that the field is winnowing, and this is a wise move by Pete. We'll find out who his supporters go to on Tues.
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Old 03-01-2020, 05:45 PM
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I hope this is a sign that the Democrats are figuring out that they need to stop splintering and start pulling together behind SOMEONE who can beat trump. Beating him is the #1 priority at the very least. It doesn't matter one single bit what the Democratic candidate stands for. All will be moot unless the Dems keep the House and take the Senate. But even if they don't, getting trump out of the White House is the most important thing.
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Old 03-01-2020, 05:49 PM
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  #21  
Old 03-01-2020, 05:53 PM
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This is great news for Biden. Based on headlines, I thought Sanders was running away with nominations. Biden is less than 10 delegates from Sanders. 60 to 53. With Mayor Pete out, that support likely will go to Biden.
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Old 03-01-2020, 05:55 PM
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This is great news for Biden. Based on headlines, I thought Sanders was running away with nominations. Biden is less than 10 delegates from Sanders. 60 to 53. With Mayor Pete out, that support likely will go to Biden.
That’s not what this morning consult polling suggests…(page down and then mouse over)

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/
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Old 03-01-2020, 08:48 PM
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That’s not what this morning consult polling suggests…(page down and then mouse over)

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/
So, for the most part, as candidates drop out Bernie's chances for the nomination increase.
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Old 03-01-2020, 09:02 PM
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So, for the most part, as candidates drop out Bernie's chances for the nomination increase.
They go down as the not Bernie vote rallies to Biden.
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Old 03-01-2020, 10:42 PM
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That’s not what this morning consult polling suggests…(page down and then mouse over)

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/
That poll surprises me but really shouldn't when I look at other polls' crosstabs: Buttigieg's support is in fact about 50/50 over/under 45. Biden gets polling support skewed to voters 45 and older voters, and Sanders gets polling support skewed to under 45. (At least among whites which is almost all of Buttigieg's support.) That the younger supporters would move to saying Sanders and the older ones would move to Biden is actually predictable. The issue of course is that in both South Carolina and New Hampshire those 45 and over have had twice the turnout of those under, less of a younger voter primary turnout than in 2016.

I'm thinking in voters who vote it helps Biden more.
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Old 03-02-2020, 07:12 AM
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That’s not what this morning consult polling suggests…(page down and then mouse over)

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/
FWIW 538, aware of the Morning Consult polling, comes to a different conclusion.
Quote:
Pete Buttigieg’s decision to drop out of the race two days before Super Tuesday has hurt Sen. Bernie Sanders in our primary forecast. ...

... Overall, the model has Buttigieg’s support being divided relatively evenly between Warren, Biden, Bloomberg, Sanders and — in the places where she’s strong — Sen. Amy Klobuchar. That seems broadly in line with polls, which are somewhat inconsistent about where Buttigeg’s support will go.

Of course, neither the model nor previous polling of the race consider the context in which Buttigieg dropped out, which comes amidst an increasing effort by moderate Democratic voters and party leaders to get behind Biden. If his voters take Buttigeg’s dropout as a signal that they should switch to Biden, there’s more upside for BIden than our model implies. ...
They think it increases the chance of a brokered convention, by increasing the odds of Warren and Bloomberg getting over 15% where they are close.
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Old 03-02-2020, 09:31 AM
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FWIW 538, aware of the Morning Consult polling, comes to a different conclusion.
They think it increases the chance of a brokered convention, by increasing the odds of Warren and Bloomberg getting over 15% where they are close.
Yeah, this seems like the largest effect. If someone like Warren goes over 15% in some places where she wouldn't have with Pete in the race, then that significantly changes the delegate math, even if she herself isn't going to get close to winning the nomination race overall.
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Old 03-01-2020, 10:25 PM
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This is great news for Biden. Based on headlines, I thought Sanders was running away with nominations. Biden is less than 10 delegates from Sanders. 60 to 53. With Mayor Pete out, that support likely will go to Biden.
I don't think that's true. I was a Pete supporter and if Biden gets the nomination I'm not voting in the general. He's the only candidate that I will say that about. My vote is going to Sanders.
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Old 03-01-2020, 11:51 PM
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I don't think that's true. I was a Pete supporter and if Biden gets the nomination I'm not voting in the general. He's the only candidate that I will say that about. My vote is going to Sanders.
That's the kind of talk that gets us 4 more years of trump.

No matter what you think of Biden, he's better than trump.

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Old 03-02-2020, 12:17 AM
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That's the kind of talk that gets us 4 more years of trump.

No matter what you think of Biden, he's better than trump.
Everyone knows my opinion of Bernie, I’ll vote for him from my safe blue state of Illinois if he gets the nomination.
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Old 03-02-2020, 12:21 AM
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I don't think that's true. I was a Pete supporter and if Biden gets the nomination I'm not voting in the general. He's the only candidate that I will say that about. My vote is going to Sanders.
Same here. Literally just voted for Pete yesterday. Biden's brain is melting in real time and he has no business running for president. He belongs in a nursing home, not the White House.
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Old 03-02-2020, 12:21 AM
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I don't think that's true. I was a Pete supporter and if Biden gets the nomination I'm not voting in the general. He's the only candidate that I will say that about. My vote is going to Sanders.
If I'm willing to vote for Bernie Sanders, you should be willing to vote for Joe Biden.
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Old 03-02-2020, 05:49 AM
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If I'm willing to vote for Bernie Sanders, you should be willing to vote for Joe Biden.
Bernie seems to be mentally capable of being president. I would vote Warren but she does not seem to have a path to the nomination without a contested convention.

If it happens that Biden is the nominee maybe I'll change my mind. But, if Biden is the nominee maybe we deserve four more years of Trump. I'm not certain. It absolutely feels to me as though the democratic party needs to be burned down and rebuilt.
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Old 03-02-2020, 08:34 AM
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If I'm willing to vote for Bernie Sanders, you should be willing to vote for Joe Biden.
This. I have never voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in my life* but I will be this November regardless of who he or she is. If the Bernie Bros stamp their feet and hold their collective breath because their guy does not get the party's nod, they will deserve every bit of the opprobrium that will be heaped upon their heads.

*Or, to be fair, a Republican.
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Old 03-02-2020, 01:15 PM
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If I'm willing to vote for Bernie Sanders, you should be willing to vote for Joe Biden.
Yep, I pledge to vote for whoever then Nominate, even in the safe Blueness of CA.
  #36  
Old 03-01-2020, 06:06 PM
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I hope this is a sign that the Democrats are figuring out that they need to stop splintering and start pulling together behind SOMEONE who can beat trump. Beating him is the #1 priority at the very least. It doesn't matter one single bit what the Democratic candidate stands for. All will be moot unless the Dems keep the House and take the Senate. But even if they don't, getting trump out of the White House is the most important thing.
Unlike Warren and Klobuchar, Buttigieg staying in the race until SC at least made some sense given how well he had performed up to this point. But there's not going to be a Warren surge, nor will there be a Klobuchar surge, and I'm beginning to doubt that there will a Bloomberg surge either.

And it goes to show that things can change fast. I admit that two weeks ago I had left Biden for dead and thought Bloomberg was going to take command of the moderate lane. But Warren absolutely destroyed him in the first debate and while I thought he was better prepared this time around, he still didn't really recover. Biden, meanwhile, held it together long enough for Jim Clyburn to give him a lifeline, and this was the shot in the arm his campaign needed. I agree that Buttigieg's exit gives Biden a little more energy, though how much is unclear. I'm sure some of those who voted for Mayor Pete belong in the camp of wanting to see younger, fresher faces, so I don't expect all of Pete's voters to switch to Biden right away.
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Old 03-01-2020, 05:53 PM
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Steyer and Buttigieg today. Maybe Klobuchar soon. Gabbard and Warren will stick around until the bitter end.
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Old 03-01-2020, 09:55 PM
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Steyer and Buttigieg today. Maybe Klobuchar soon. Gabbard and Warren will stick around until the bitter end.
I bet Warren drops if she gets nothing on Super Tuesday. If she doesn't- she should.
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Old 03-01-2020, 06:09 PM
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I'm a bit sad about this, as I was an early, if small, donor to the Buttigieg campaign. I could see this coming, though, and I ticked my ballot in Colorado yesterday for Warren. They've consistently been my two favorites from the jump, because I like people who can make cogent arguments and explain policy ideas clearly, at which both of them excel.

I really think Warren *should* be president, but I'm kind of resigned to having to vote for Bernie (or possibly Biden) in November.
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Old 03-01-2020, 06:39 PM
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Old 03-01-2020, 06:42 PM
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Thanks, Pete! He needed some seasoning before making a run for the WH. I hope he gets a cabinet post or makes a run for the House or Senate. Between his departure and the anticipated departure of Amy, I think Biden's performance on Tuesday is going to be much better than we anticipated a week ago.
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Old 03-01-2020, 06:22 PM
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Bernie raised $46 million in February, that’s a staggering amount. Pete/Amy/Warren campaigns are all on fumes at this point as everyone’s getting behind Biden to stop Sanders. I expect both Warren and Amy to drop after Super Tuesday, they’re only staying in to see how they do in their home states.
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Old 03-01-2020, 06:26 PM
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Bernie raised $46 million in February, that’s a staggering amount. Pete/Amy/Warren campaigns are all on fumes at this point as everyone’s getting behind Biden to stop Sanders. I expect both Warren and Amy to drop after Super Tuesday, they’re only staying in to see how they do in their home states.
Warren raised $29M in February, more than she’d raised in any whole quarter before that.
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Old 03-01-2020, 06:35 PM
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Warren raised $29M in February, more than she’d raised in any whole quarter before that.
We will have to see the burn rates as the numbers come in, I’m still shocked the Warren campaign opened an office in the south side of Chicago with the Illinois primary on March 17.

There’s a lot of smart young staff from the Pete campaign that could give a serious boost to Biden.
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Old 03-01-2020, 06:27 PM
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Good move by Buttigieg. This should help Biden on Super Tuesday, and help prevent a Bernie win or a brokered convention - two things the Democrats need before they can beat Trump.

Buttigieg might make a decent VP candidate for Biden. He adds much needed youth, and he has shown the ability to bring in votes in states where Biden fell flat.
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Old 03-01-2020, 06:47 PM
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Again, the most popular second choice for Buttigieg voters was Sanders.
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Old 03-01-2020, 06:53 PM
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Again, the most popular second choice for Buttigieg voters was Sanders.
Maybe they’re out there, never met a single one over the year I was a volunteer and met endless people involved with the campaign. The Sanders scorched earth approach doesn’t exactly mesh with the Rules of the Road.
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Old 03-01-2020, 06:49 PM
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Biden almost certainly promised him something. Secretary of State would be a good fit.
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Old 03-01-2020, 07:18 PM
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Biden almost certainly promised him something. Secretary of State would be a good fit.
I wonder if Bloomberg made him some offer to drop out before super Tuesday. Time will tell.
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Old 03-01-2020, 07:47 PM
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I wonder if Bloomberg made him some offer to drop out before super Tuesday. Time will tell.
Bloomberg? I think Pete wants to kill Steyer and Bloomberg right now.
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