View Poll Results: Who will drop out by the time Super Tuesday is over?
Biden 15 29.41%
Bloomberg 9 17.65%
Buttigieg 7 13.73%
Klobuchar 33 64.71%
Sanders 2 3.92%
Warren 24 47.06%
One or more of the others 19 37.25%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 51. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 02-19-2020, 11:30 AM
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Who will have dropped out by the time Super Tuesday is over?


It seems like everyone currently in the race plans to stick around through at least Super Tuesday on March 3rd. The question for this thread is who, if anyone, will drop out after Super Tuesday is all said and done? The mai reason I think this is an interesting question is due to the possibility of a brokered Democratic convention. The more candidates that stay in, the higher the likelihood that the convention will be brokered. So what day you all about who is likely to drop out? Chose as many options as you want in the poll.
  #2  
Old 02-19-2020, 11:47 AM
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Klobuchar and Warren. Amy showed she wasn’t ready for prime time with the Mexican President question which she flubbed again. She has no campaign infrastructure, she got a nice shot of cash but too little too late.

Warren should have dropped after the embarrassment in IA, I assume she’s only still in for a miracle, maybe more Bernie health issues. Zero delegates in her own backyard is pretty much unknown for a US Senator
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  #3  
Old 02-19-2020, 12:07 PM
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Everybody except Pete, Biden, and Bernie will drop after Super Tuesday.
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Old 02-19-2020, 12:19 PM
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I think Biden, Bloomberg, Sanders, and Pete will be left standing after ST. Klobuchar has a little more momentum than Warren at this point, and I kinda hope she survives, but they both are on the bubble going into ST. Who else is still around? Tulsi - I think that campaign has been circling the bowl since before IA. Steyer - his campaign started out circling the bowl.
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Old 02-19-2020, 12:40 PM
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In order of predicted delegate totals: Sanders, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, Klobuchar. I'm reasonably sure Warren, Steyer, and the less than 1 percent candidates will be gone. Bloomberg I think stays no matter how many delegates he has.

Biden has been in free fall in the polls since the impeachment, though he had the most altitude to lose. Let's see what South Carolina does as a bellwether for Biden's chances on Super Tuesday.

I thought Klobuchar was climbing in some of the state polls? Not enough to threaten a win, but 3rd or so? Perhaps some of Warren's supporters will go to her. Gabbard is going to angle for a VP position, along with Stacey Abrams from Georgia.

Should be interesting. Maybe one will take a commanding lead after ST. Or it'll be a dogfight until Milwaukee.
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Old 02-19-2020, 04:02 PM
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If Biden begins to slip behind Bernie in a significant way in SC polls and gets embarrassed again in NV, there will be pressure on Biden to bow out ASAP. It might be too late, though, which is partly the message that Bloomberg wants to get across.
  #7  
Old 02-19-2020, 08:18 PM
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Everybody except Pete, Biden, and Bernie will drop after Super Tuesday.
I think Biden will be out after Tuesday.

It'll be sanders, Pete and Bloomberg after Tuesday.
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  #8  
Old 02-19-2020, 10:27 PM
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Having seen the debate, Bloomberg, and probably the sub-qualifiers too.
  #9  
Old 02-21-2020, 03:11 AM
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Klobuchar and Warren. Amy showed she wasn’t ready for prime time with the Mexican President question which she flubbed again. She has no campaign infrastructure, she got a nice shot of cash but too little too late.
Have these types of zingers ever worked? I think every modern presidential candidate has been the subject of "OMG! He/she could not name the Speaker of the Cambodian House of Representatives!" criticism and I cannot recall once where that was a factor in torpedoing the candidacy.

I follow the news extensively and would not have known his name without googling. Of course, you could say that I am not running for President of the United States, but so what? You don't think a President could sit down for 15 minutes, learn about Mexico's president and be prepared to conduct diplomacy from there?

Sure, there are exceptions. If she didn't know who Boris Johnson is, for example, that would show a bit of complacency as he has been in the news constantly for the last year.

But my point is that these little trivia contests, while all the rage in the media, really haven't shown to be a factor for voters.
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Old 02-21-2020, 08:52 AM
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Unless Sanders does a massive rout of the others on March 3, I bet nobody drops out that week.

As long as it's not clear that there will be a first-ballot winner, if you stay in the game, you might still win.
  #11  
Old 02-21-2020, 10:46 AM
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Have these types of zingers ever worked? I think every modern presidential candidate has been the subject of "OMG! He/she could not name the Speaker of the Cambodian House of Representatives!" criticism and I cannot recall once where that was a factor in torpedoing the candidacy.

I follow the news extensively and would not have known his name without googling. Of course, you could say that I am not running for President of the United States, but so what? You don't think a President could sit down for 15 minutes, learn about Mexico's president and be prepared to conduct diplomacy from there?

Sure, there are exceptions. If she didn't know who Boris Johnson is, for example, that would show a bit of complacency as he has been in the news constantly for the last year.

But my point is that these little trivia contests, while all the rage in the media, really haven't shown to be a factor for voters.
This is ridiculous. It would be really bad if she didn't know Boris Johnson, just like if anyone who reads the news should be embarrassed not to know him. But the President of Mexico is President of a major trading partner and a neighboring country. Frequently in sparring matches over immigration. It is nothing at all like some rando politician in Columbia. She's in the damn Senate, does Mexican policy never come up in discussions?

Last edited by CarnalK; 02-21-2020 at 10:51 AM.
  #12  
Old 02-21-2020, 10:51 AM
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I think people are way over estimating Buttigieg's legs. My bet is he gets clobbered Super Tuesday and middling performances in the next two. He might not drop out in that case but he could.
  #13  
Old 02-21-2020, 12:04 PM
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Have these types of zingers ever worked? I think every modern presidential candidate has been the subject of "OMG! He/she could not name the Speaker of the Cambodian House of Representatives!" criticism and I cannot recall once where that was a factor in torpedoing the candidacy.
People on the right still think it's a 'big deal' that Obama thought there were 53 states, but most people didn't care.

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I think people are way over estimating Buttigieg's legs. My bet is he gets clobbered Super Tuesday and middling performances in the next two. He might not drop out in that case but he could.
Yeah, based on the Super Tuesday poll numbers I can easily see this happening. The Super Tuesday states are more like South Carolina (where I don't see him doing well) than they are like Iowa and New Hampshire.
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Old 02-21-2020, 12:33 PM
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This is ridiculous. It would be really bad if she didn't know Boris Johnson, just like if anyone who reads the news should be embarrassed not to know him. But the President of Mexico is President of a major trading partner and a neighboring country. Frequently in sparring matches over immigration. It is nothing at all like some rando politician in Columbia. She's in the damn Senate, does Mexican policy never come up in discussions?
I don't believe she didn't know the name of the Mexican President. She seems to have a tendency to blank out on names when under pressure. She did the same thing at an earlier debate when it appeared she had forgotten the name of the Kansas governor right in the middle of talking about her.
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Old 02-21-2020, 07:13 PM
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I think people are way over estimating Buttigieg's legs. My bet is he gets clobbered Super Tuesday and middling performances in the next two. He might not drop out in that case but he could.
Some unsavory things are coming out (no pun intended) about what happened with the South Bend police department under his leadership, and also what he REALLY did as a consultant before he became mayor.
  #16  
Old 02-21-2020, 07:47 PM
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Some unsavory things are coming out (no pun intended) about what happened with the South Bend police department under his leadership, and also what he REALLY did as a consultant before he became mayor.
Sounds like a pile of bullshit but let's see.
  #17  
Old 02-21-2020, 08:28 PM
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Some unsavory things are coming out (no pun intended) about what happened with the South Bend police department under his leadership, and also what he REALLY did as a consultant before he became mayor.
I’m demanding a cite or a retraction.
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  #18  
Old 02-22-2020, 07:33 AM
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This is ridiculous. It would be really bad if she didn't know Boris Johnson, just like if anyone who reads the news should be embarrassed not to know him. But the President of Mexico is President of a major trading partner and a neighboring country. Frequently in sparring matches over immigration. It is nothing at all like some rando politician in Columbia. She's in the damn Senate, does Mexican policy never come up in discussions?
I'm sure it does and it comes up often. I don't know why that means that the name of the Mexican president would come up often in those discussions or why it would be something that would stick in your head as something to remember. I remember Vicente Fox because he was in the news and outspoken, but since him, I've got nothing.

These questions are unfair because not everyone, even very intelligent people, processes things the same way. Many people can tell you everything about a movie they watched, but can't tell you the title, or they can describe everything on a certain street, the buildings, the restaurants, the signs, the colors, but can't tell you the name of the street.

Plus, his name is Andrés Manuel López Obrador. That's not something that sticks in the brain of English speakers nor does it roll off the tongue. I think that is pretty forgivable.
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Old 02-22-2020, 07:36 AM
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People on the right still think it's a 'big deal' that Obama thought there were 53 states, but most people didn't care.
I don't know anyone on the right, except those who repost Facebook memes, who think that Obama really thought there were 53 states. That was clearly a slip of the tongue.

Just like how one time he didn't put his hand over his heart during the national anthem made him unpatriotic. If you are running on 2 hours sleep and are hearing the NA for the 33rd time that month, it is easy to have a lapse in thinking.
  #20  
Old 02-22-2020, 09:45 AM
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most drop out due to money problems, that does not apply to Steyer or Bloomberg. I think they probably both stay in for another couple of months.
  #21  
Old 02-22-2020, 09:56 AM
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I don't know anyone on the right, except those who repost Facebook memes, who think that Obama really thought there were 53 states. That was clearly a slip of the tongue.

Just like how one time he didn't put his hand over his heart during the national anthem made him unpatriotic. If you are running on 2 hours sleep and are hearing the NA for the 33rd time that month, it is easy to have a lapse in thinking.
Wasn’t the 53 states just a mixup between the number of primaries/caucuses?
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  #22  
Old 02-22-2020, 10:05 AM
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If Biden's bizarre story about being arrested in SA on his way to have a kumbaya moment with Nelson Mandela turns out to be a fiction, he'll be a footnote in history in short order. I really hate seeing Sanders in the catbird seat. The Dems are trying to attract moderate repubs, and he's not the guy to do that. I doubt that Trump will even bother debating him. Sadly, it looks like Warren will be gone, also. I think she's the toughest candidate on the stage at this point.
  #23  
Old 02-22-2020, 10:17 AM
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I think people are way over estimating Buttigieg's legs. My bet is he gets clobbered Super Tuesday and middling performances in the next two. He might not drop out in that case but he could.
And his funding isn't that deep. And he has a lot more time to run in later years. And he might be hoping for VP or cabinet or just advertising for a senate run.

I saw him speak early in the season, and at that time, he clearly didn't think he was going to win. Since then, he's done well enough that his hopes must have been raised, but unless he does pretty well on Super Tuesday he will drop out, I bet.

Of course, who knows, maybe he'll do well on Super Tuesday. I'm not very good at predicting these things.
  #24  
Old 02-22-2020, 11:49 AM
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Good news is that Sanders brings in under 30 voters. Bad news is a lot of them don't bother to vote. The over 60 crowd has a high voting rate and many of them will vote Trump
  #25  
Old 02-22-2020, 08:56 PM
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Amy, Elizabeth and Steyer HAVE to consider dropping out after this Nevada debacle, don't they?
  #26  
Old 02-22-2020, 09:10 PM
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to be honest, I think Bloomberg and Steyer are setting themselves for a post trump run
  #27  
Old 02-23-2020, 11:43 AM
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For god's sake. You think Bloomberg is spending half a billion dollars so he can run for President in 4 years when he's 82?
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