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  #3851  
Old 03-03-2020, 03:08 AM
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I fully expect Bernie to do well tomorrow. California is prime Bernie and he’ll rack up delegates. Early voting is gonna hurt. There are no flexible Bernie voters, they’d vote for him if he was being buried tomorrow.

I can only hope that tonight’s Superfriends helps take some of the sting away. There’s still time to stop Bernie. My biggest hope is that Biden, Warren, and Bloomberg are viable in CA to help keep Bernie from all those delegates. Bernie showing his racism was a despicable thing to do on Sunday, but if it helps him win tons of CA delegates then it helps his messianic revolution and was the right thing to do politically.
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  #3852  
Old 03-03-2020, 04:01 AM
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I fully expect Bernie to do well tomorrow. California is prime Bernie and he’ll rack up delegates. Early voting is gonna hurt. There are no flexible Bernie voters, they’d vote for him if he was being buried tomorrow.

I can only hope that tonight’s Superfriends helps take some of the sting away. There’s still time to stop Bernie. My biggest hope is that Biden, Warren, and Bloomberg are viable in CA to help keep Bernie from all those delegates. Bernie showing his racism was a despicable thing to do on Sunday, but if it helps him win tons of CA delegates then it helps his messianic revolution and was the right thing to do politically.
I like how you insult literally all Bernie voters here, on top of the evidence-free "racist" slander against Bernie himself. Not that interested in a unified party, I take it?
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  #3853  
Old 03-03-2020, 04:16 AM
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Biden and Mitch McConnell wrote a deal to extend Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, Bernie spoke for hours aginst it.

There's so many more examples. We arent splitting hairs here.
  #3854  
Old 03-03-2020, 04:25 AM
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Thank you Amy! We MUST stop Bernie and Biden is the only one who can.
Must we? I mean, I'm not a Bernie fan but democracy is democracy.

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I like how you insult literally all Bernie voters here
Not all Bernie voters. Just the deplorable ones.

That said, the Bernie supporters among my Facebook friends have all gone into full irrational froth mode, although the fact that two candidates abruptly dropped out at the same time and immediately endorsed Biden does suggest they have some justification for their persecution complexes and that the DNC are ham-handedly at it again.

Ah well. It was a nice country while it lasted.
  #3855  
Old 03-03-2020, 04:42 AM
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So the rich will continue to get richer. The poor will get poorer. Millions of Americans will continue to go without healthcare. And that's best case scenario, if Biden can somehow magically beat Trump.

Yep. Nice country while it lasted.
  #3856  
Old 03-03-2020, 04:56 AM
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So the rich will continue to get richer. The poor will get poorer. Millions of Americans will continue to go without healthcare. And that's best case scenario, if Biden can somehow magically beat Trump.

Yep. Nice country while it lasted.
Assuming the eventual Democratic nominee wins, their first priority will have to be undoing all the damage inflicted on the country in the previous four years - putting together a functional government, economy, infrastructure, legal system, electoral system and so forth. We've seen lots of vague and/or aspirational bumf from all the candidates; none of the candidates have really come out with a solid plan to fix the actual, material mess we're in. Rather than acknowledging the new political paradigm, they're playing silly games sniping at each other and tacking up their Christmas lists of policies they'd like to have because they've been really good this year, honest!

And none of them - not Bernie, not Joe, not the others, and not the DNC - show any sign of acquiring a fucking clue any time soon.
  #3857  
Old 03-03-2020, 04:56 AM
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So the rich will continue to get richer. The poor will get poorer. Millions of Americans will continue to go without healthcare. And that's best case scenario, if Biden can somehow magically beat Trump.

Yep. Nice country while it lasted.
There's some font of leftist senators that are champing at the bit to enact Bernie's agenda should he win? Or if they prove to be more centrist and do not pass to Bernie anything more than what Biden would have asked for, how is Bernie going to save the country? Executive orders? Nice country while it lasted, indeed.
  #3858  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:27 AM
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So the rich will continue to get richer. The poor will get poorer. Millions of Americans will continue to go without healthcare. And that's best case scenario, if Biden can somehow magically beat Trump.

Yep. Nice country while it lasted.
People like me AGREE with you that we SHOULD do things to address inequalities, etc. (I was just teaching my students last week about how the US lags behind other rich countries on several fronts, most notably incarceration rates). We share the same dreams as you and Bernie, and we will fight and persuade and work just as hard as you to make them come true. We’re just more REALISTIC about what’s possible in the near term...and what MUST be done first, to repair the damage of the last three years.

I grew up in a liberal bubble, but I’ve lived in a small city in Wisconsin for five years. Maybe that’s why I get this.

Last edited by JKellyMap; 03-03-2020 at 06:29 AM.
  #3859  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:32 AM
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Biden and Mitch McConnell wrote a deal to extend Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, Bernie spoke for hours aginst it.

There's so many more examples. We arent splitting hairs here.
EXACTLY. Two men DID something, while the third one SPOKE.

I’m not saying Biden is perfect, or that every compromise is a step in the right direction. But you unwittingly hit the nail on the head. DO versus SPEAK.
  #3860  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:37 AM
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EXACTLY. Two men DID something, while the third one SPOKE.



I’m not saying Biden is perfect, or that every compromise is a step in the right direction. But you unwittingly hit the nail on the head. DO versus SPEAK.
Speaking against a bad compromise is better than doing a bad compromise, IMO.
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  #3861  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:43 AM
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Speaking against a bad compromise is better than doing a bad compromise, IMO.
Hmmm. Well, you just spoke out, so good on you. It had just about the same effect as Bernie speaking out.

(I get the power of speech ... I’m as moved by that famous “was it just words when X said Y?” sermon as anyone... but I hope you see my point, as it relates to the present circumstances).

Last edited by JKellyMap; 03-03-2020 at 06:44 AM.
  #3862  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:44 AM
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The endorsements keep rolling in for Biden: Harry Reid and Mayor Pete.

According to 538's endorsement tracker, Biden's gotten seven new endorsements (not yet counting Pete's) today:

Steve Adler Mayor of Austin, Texas
Harry Reid Former U.S. Senate majority leader
Amy Klobuchar U.S. senator from Minnesota
Veronica Escobar U.S. representative from Texas
Tammy Duckworth U.S. senator from Illinois
Michael Hancock Mayor of Denver
Gil Cisneros U.S. representative from California
As a Warren supporter, Harry Reid's endorsement is the one that stings the most, because I think Josh Marshall is right:
Quote:
News is just out that former Majority Leader Harry Reid is endorsing Joe Biden. Notable point here. Reid went out of his way not to endorse before the Nevada Caucuses, where he obviously would have carried a lot of sway. But while not ‘endorsing’ he made statements more or less constantly about how great Elizabeth Warren is.

So his refusal to endorse was fairly nominal to anyone who was paying attention. This endorsement of Biden seems as much his saying that he thinks Warren’s window has closed as it is an endorsement of Joe Biden.
And Harry Reid's political instincts are about as good as they come.

I think I've moved past denial and anger, and skipped past bargaining, right into depression. Assuming Bloomberg figures out he's a spoiler and pulls out, we're down to a 2-man race, and I don't see how either one of them will do anything but fuck 2021 up royally.

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  #3863  
Old 03-03-2020, 07:09 AM
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Hmmm. Well, you just spoke out, so good on you. It had just about the same effect as Bernie speaking out.

(I get the power of speech ... I’m as moved by that famous “was it just words when X said Y?” sermon as anyone... but I hope you see my point, as it relates to the present circumstances).
But if it was a bad compromise, then criticizing it is about all that Bernie (and I) can do. I suppose I could take some sort of action, like maybe trying to mobilize lots of voters and run for higher office - that might be appropriate and even admirable in the face of a corrupt system.
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  #3864  
Old 03-03-2020, 07:10 AM
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I feel you. I agree, we can walk and chew gum at the same time.
  #3865  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:20 AM
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It's just incredible.

Even given that he was right about these things, and given that the current political alternative is the people who were actively wrong about them, we'll still act like it's some kind of high-minded "both sides" concession to acknowledge that he was right. He gets a participation trophy for not wanting to, e.g., blow up a bunch of school kids halfway across the world, or cause a bunch of poor people to die. Of course, he's still a loser, because the actually actively bad decisions still got made. We support winners and leaders in the Democratic party, like the people who made all the terrible decisions. There were more of them, so they must have been right when they were wrong!

So Joe Biden will get trounced by Donald Trump, extremely obviously because not even a single fucking Democrat actually thinks he's any good, and we'll have our pat denunciations of Bernie Bros ready when that happens, which is apparently the world we want to live in. "Thanks for helping Donald Trump, hyuk hyuk."
  #3866  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:37 AM
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Biden's speech tonight at the rally in Texas where Klobochar and Beto endorsed him, that may be the best political speech he has ever given.

Super Tuesday will be a landmark day in this primary season, maybe it goes Sanders, maybe it goes Biden.

And I got the feeling Amy was auditioning for VP and did a pretty damn good job.

YMMV
I agree. that was one of the best speeches I heard from biden. klobuchar would be a good vp pick.
  #3867  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:56 AM
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Yeah, I could see that.
  #3868  
Old 03-03-2020, 01:34 PM
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It kind of seems like that’s what they are hinting at, which would be fine by me.

What is this reference to Bernie being racist on Sunday about?
  #3869  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:10 PM
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What is this reference to Bernie being racist on Sunday about?

Possibly a reference to Bernie declining to appear at the "Bloody Sunday" civil rights commemoration in Selma (while all the other Dem candidates did participate):

Quote:
... [John] Lewis’ appearance overshadowed the presidential candidates posturing for Alabama’s voters allegiance ahead of the state's primary on Tuesday. All of the major candidates seeking the Democratic Party’s nomination except Bernie Sanders were expected to be in Selma over the weekend. ...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ry/4925083002/
  #3870  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:35 PM
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Biden picks up Virginia very handily, Warren is a not close third. Sanders didnt perform as expected.

Biden projected to win in NC also.
  #3871  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:11 PM
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If this Biden wave tonight holds up, the decision by Klobuchar and Pete to bail out* before Super Tuesday looks brilliant.

*Or pushed out by the DNC. whatever.
  #3872  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:49 PM
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EXACTLY. Two men DID something, while the third one SPOKE.

I’m not saying Biden is perfect, or that every compromise is a step in the right direction. But you unwittingly hit the nail on the head. DO versus SPEAK.
Not really - let's consider the context in which the "extension" was made. It was made during a recovery from a massive financial crisis which was disproportionately affecting the poor. Republicans were threatening to derail the extension of unemployment benefits which people desperately needed.

That's the biggest fucking problem I have with Bernie Bros. They never want to own up to the fact that Saint Bernie voted *for* the 1994 Crime Bill or that he voted against gun control legislation - they always have a fucking excuse for that. But they'll claim shit like "Biden voted to extend tax cuts for billionaires."

Sorry but that's just fucking dishonest. Bernie Bros are like Trump Bros and they know it; they just believe that they're morally superior, which is delusional. It's time to flush them down the fucking toilet.

Last edited by asahi; 03-03-2020 at 08:53 PM.
  #3873  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:54 PM
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Biden picks up Virginia very handily, Warren is a not close third. Sanders didnt perform as expected.

Biden projected to win in NC also.
Biden is winning both Mass and Maine. He might lose but he's overperforming.
  #3874  
Old 03-03-2020, 09:27 PM
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https://www.politico.com/2020-electi...super-tuesday/

Biden is crushing it. Warren and Bloomberg are fighting neck and neck for 3rd.

And according to 538, doing better than expected everywhere but texas:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday/

Sanders is winning Vt, but not doing as well as expected.

Last edited by DrDeth; 03-03-2020 at 09:30 PM.
  #3875  
Old 03-03-2020, 09:32 PM
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday/

And biden is doing better that expected everywhere but texas-
  #3876  
Old 03-03-2020, 11:03 PM
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As of 11pm Central time Biden has just taken the lead in Texas.

No idea how long that will last.
  #3877  
Old 03-03-2020, 11:17 PM
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IF Biden ends up with a delegate lead after tonight, not impossible, any thoughts on if Sanders switches his position on a plurality winner automatically getting the nom?
  #3878  
Old 03-03-2020, 11:18 PM
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About as likely as Biden switching his opinion on the same subject.
  #3879  
Old 03-03-2020, 11:24 PM
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Very confident Biden won’t.

Sanders track record though IS to switch to whichever favors him. Not as sure he wouldn’t.
  #3880  
Old 03-03-2020, 11:39 PM
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As you say, he has done it before but I will just (figuratively) laugh in his face if he pulls another switcheroo.
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  #3881  
Old 03-04-2020, 12:58 AM
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Quite astonishing how little Bernie's large money/organization advantage over Biden mattered. Especially in Minnesota where it appears that the Klobuchar endorsement was enough to power Biden to a win.

What makes this such a perfect test of "party decides" is that usually the candidate who the party supports is also the one with the most money so it's hard to tease out the causal effect. This was a unique case of a candidate with large party support and little money against a candidate with the opposite.
  #3882  
Old 03-04-2020, 01:28 AM
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Really great point, although we can also read it slightly differently. It seems that as many of us were saying all along (and getting scoffed at by Bernie fans who insisted he was many voters' second choice), Bernie had a ceiling and a lot of resistance to his candidacy. The majority of Democrats believe it's a really bad idea to nominate him once they start really paying attention, but they needed some kind of guidance as to whom to vote for to stop him. Once that became clear, it became a referendum on Bernie, and Bernie lost. This will only intensify when Bloomberg exits the race (which I believe he will do very soon).

One of the most stunning illustrations of this very interesting dynamic is that Biden won Massachusetts despite not visiting the state (AFAIK) and spending literally zero dollars there--meanwhile Bernie spent a lot of money there and held recent high profile rallies in Boston. Big enthusiastic rallies don't mean lots of votes! I hope people finally are starting to understand the quiet power of the millions of unseen older voters who sit at home and watch TV most of the time, but on Election Day they get out to the polls like clockwork (or mail in their absentee ballots).
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  #3883  
Old 03-04-2020, 08:31 AM
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I'd love to see an analysis on the effect of early voting -- if perhaps Biden did best in states where people voted on election day, and Bernie was the beneficiary of votes mailed in last week, before the endorsement dam broke.
  #3884  
Old 03-04-2020, 09:21 AM
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No link, just a BREAKING NEWS thing across the top of CNN's website, but Bloomberg's out.

ETA: Politico's got it.

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 03-04-2020 at 09:25 AM.
  #3885  
Old 03-04-2020, 09:24 AM
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And he's apparently endorsing Biden.
  #3886  
Old 03-04-2020, 10:04 AM
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I'd love to see an analysis on the effect of early voting -- if perhaps Biden did best in states where people voted on election day, and Bernie was the beneficiary of votes mailed in last week, before the endorsement dam broke.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-decided-late/
  #3887  
Old 03-04-2020, 10:06 AM
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And he's apparently endorsing Biden.
He's out, but his checkbook is still in. The Democrats have their own Koch Bros.

(Which is terrible, but it'd be stupid not to play by the same rules as the Republicans.)
  #3888  
Old 03-04-2020, 10:16 AM
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Yes, I certainly hope ol' Mike will keep cutting big checks. He loathes Trump and rightly sees him as a threat to American democracy, so I think he will.

Warren lost both her birth state of Oklahoma and her Senate state of Massachusetts, and I suspect she'll be out within days if not hours: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...wipeout-120705
  #3889  
Old 03-04-2020, 10:55 AM
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Biden's nearly perfect run of events continues. I am struggling to see how Bernie comes back. His best shot is a spectacular performance in a one-on-one debate with Biden but even that might not be enough.

So will Warren drop out? She certainly should but may still have a delusional belief in becoming the "unity candidate" in a brokered convention without winning a single state. I think a straight Bernie-Biden contest would be good for democracy and push Biden to raise his game which is certainly needed.
  #3890  
Old 03-04-2020, 11:20 AM
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Warren should drop out, endorse Bernie, and then nominally campaign for him without bashing Biden. That would still allow her to become the "unity candidate" as Biden's running mate.
  #3891  
Old 03-04-2020, 12:09 PM
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I guess we have the answer to the "Bernie is the top second choice" and "there are no lanes" theories.

I expected a much tougher battle for Biden. Clearing the field early should end this primary before the convention. Sanders has a ceiling, he's not going to do well in a one vs one. He's not running against Hillary anymore (and he couldn't even beat her!)
  #3892  
Old 03-04-2020, 12:16 PM
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I don't think getting ratfucked was really what hurt Biden as much as the fact that he sucks at presidential campaigns - he's run three times and flamed out all three times. The only reason he made it this far this time is because of his name-brand recognition.

I still go back to the fact that he had a huge advantage over the other candidates in Iowa and totally blew it. He had the advantages of name recognition, Obama nostalgia, and being straight over Pete Buttigieg - and Pete beat him. He had the advantages of actually being available to campaign while Warren, Klobuchar, and Sanders were tied up in the impeachment trial. Sanders thrashed Biden, Warren came out ahead of him, and Klobuchar surged. Biden just doesn't get campaigning - that's not a problem that moving the campaign to a friendlier part of the country can fix, either.
...

You were saying?
  #3893  
Old 03-04-2020, 12:34 PM
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What happens if Biden makes a big senior gaffe at the wrong moment now?

He is aging fast, the race is heating up, and the media environment that we have been swimming in for 5 years now is much more "fascism curious" than "back to normalcy."

The media always get what it wants, much more so than any electoral bloc.
  #3894  
Old 03-04-2020, 01:09 PM
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What happens if Biden makes a big senior gaffe at the wrong moment now?
...
Trump does those on a daily basis, if not hourly.
  #3895  
Old 03-04-2020, 01:15 PM
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What happens if Biden makes a big senior gaffe at the wrong moment now?
The anti-Trump majority shrugs it off and votes against Trump. Gaffes don't matter anymore.
  #3896  
Old 03-04-2020, 01:21 PM
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Trump does those on a daily basis, if not hourly.
How is it even relvant if the media is not telling that story?

THe story is that turmp is a right wing populist political beast and they are fascinated by it above all other things, even their own survival as an industry. They don't hold the gaffes against him if his public doesn't. They report on it in a rapt fascination wtih chaos.

They don't care about Joe. He is just a little bit of fodder so they can tell their little storries about the end of democracy.
  #3897  
Old 03-04-2020, 01:24 PM
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The anti-Trump majority shrugs it off and votes against Trump. Gaffes don't matter anymore.
In assymetrical warfare you can't expect the same effects on both sides.

The media will care about Joes gaffes because he isn't turmp. Don't tell me you haven't seen this already. tumps gaffes are baked in to their love of him already. Joe is fodder though. He will take the bad press and it will depress Dem turnout.
  #3898  
Old 03-04-2020, 01:27 PM
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In assymetrical warfare you can't expect the same effects on both sides.

The media will care about Joes gaffes because he isn't turmp. Don't tell me you haven't seen this already. tumps gaffes are baked in to their love of him already. Joe is fodder though. He will take the bad press and it will depress Dem turnout.
I'm no expert, but I am guessing the hatred of Trump will fuel large Dem turnout, regardless of who the Democratic nominee is or how he or she does on the campaign trail. Last time some people mistakenly thought 1) Trump probably wouldn't be so bad and/or 2) there is no way Hillary can lose so I don't have to vote since she doesn't excite me. This time, there will be nothing like that.
  #3899  
Old 03-04-2020, 02:06 PM
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One of Biden's underrated assets is people like the guy.

Hillary was a better campaigner, debater, more disciplined and very detailed. Yet for some reason there has been a distrust of her since she was First Lady.

Biden would have been shown up by her as ticking fewer boxes yet he ticked the one box she was always chasing. Forget Trump, Obama in a 2008 primary debate famously responded to a question that Hillary was not seen as likeable by saying "you're likeable enough"
  #3900  
Old 03-04-2020, 02:37 PM
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An announcement from the Warren campaign...

https://medium.com/@teamwarren/next-steps-bfa8482e2fbc
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