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Old 12-18-2019, 09:42 PM
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Trump is the first president impeached in his first term.


For once he's gotten something in his life that he actually earned.

I don't know what if any consequences this will actually have. But I know that if Trump hates it, then it's the right thing to do. And judging by his Twitter feed for the past 72 hours, boy howdy does he hate it.

Though we've all become somewhat numb to the impact of what's going on, and this seems destined to die in the senate, I look forward to watching what happens when everyone realizes they are on record, the eye of history is upon them, and the election is barely 11 months away, and they are staking the stability of their cushy re-electable 6-year-terms on a fragile gasbag who can last at most 8 years and probably not even 4.

Today is a good day.
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Old 12-18-2019, 09:48 PM
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Andrew Johnson? First term
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Old 12-18-2019, 09:49 PM
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Andrew Johnson only served one (partial) term and he was impeached during it. So two out of the three impeachments were during the first term.
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Old 12-18-2019, 09:56 PM
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Andrew Johnson? First term
Johnson was not elected to any presidential term and did not serve any full presidential term.
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Old 12-18-2019, 10:03 PM
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Johnson was not elected to any presidential term and did not serve any full presidential term.
So he wasn't impeached in his first term? Are you saying that his Presidency didn't have an actual term? I agree it wasn't a full term but it was a term, right?
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Old 12-18-2019, 10:18 PM
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Well can we all at least agree that Trump's finally won the popular vote?
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Old 12-18-2019, 10:22 PM
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Originally Posted by HMS Irruncible View Post
Though we've all become somewhat numb to the impact of what's going on, and this seems destined to die in the senate, I look forward to watching what happens when everyone realizes they are on record, the eye of history is upon them, and the election is barely 11 months away, and they are staking the stability of their cushy re-electable 6-year-terms on a fragile gasbag who can last at most 8 years and probably not even 4.

Today is a good day.
You do realize, don't you, that it's still very much an open question which side will be helped in the election and which side will be hurt by the impeachment?

Support for impeachment among independents never has broken 50%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/

How do you think they'll vote in November?
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Old 12-18-2019, 10:25 PM
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Trump will be the first impeached president to stand for re-election, presuming that he’s acquitted by the senate. At that point, I think the collective disgust within middle class America that spurred the midterm results will result in a democratic landslide in 2020.
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Old 12-18-2019, 11:09 PM
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You do realize, don't you, that it's still very much an open question which side will be helped in the election and which side will be hurt by the impeachment?
Do you believe impeachment helps the Republican side?
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Old 12-18-2019, 11:11 PM
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Do you believe impeachment helps the Republican side?
If they can spin it as an illegal attempted coup, which seems to be their current game, yes. Republican voters appear to be morons who will believe literally anything they're fed.
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Old 12-18-2019, 11:12 PM
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So he wasn't impeached in his first term? Are you saying that his Presidency didn't have an actual term? I agree it wasn't a full term but it was a term, right?
Johnson completed Lincoln's second term. He never served a term of his own.
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Old 12-18-2019, 11:22 PM
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If they can spin it as an illegal attempted coup, which seems to be their current game, yes. Republican voters appear to be morons who will believe literally anything they're fed.
I don't want to assume they're so dogshit dumb as that, which is why I welcome this opportunity to see the process work itself out. Naturally there are some who will never stop chugging the kool-aid, but fence-sitters are going to take notice as the collapse of this house of cards becomes more imminent.
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Old 12-18-2019, 11:27 PM
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Johnson completed Lincoln's second term. He never served a term of his own.
He was eligible to serve out that term and be elected to a second term, just as Teddy Roosevelt did, and Calvin Coolidge, and Harry Truman, and LBJ. It's simply an abuse of language to say he was not in his first term.
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Old 12-18-2019, 11:28 PM
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Johnson completed Lincoln's second term. He never served a term of his own.
The distinction I heard is that Trump is the first president up for election who has been impeached. Johnson was never going to get the Republican nomination for the next election.
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Old 12-18-2019, 11:29 PM
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Do you believe impeachment helps the Republican side?
Polls seem to be tending that way.

I predict in the end it will be a wash, neither helping nor hurting anybody, really. Everybody's already dug in and Trump's approval goes up and down depending on whatever it currently going on and then stabilizes.

How it will effect 2020 I don't know. A lot can happen during that time. We don't even know who he's running against. I think it will be a very close election.

Last edited by Ashtura; 12-18-2019 at 11:31 PM.
  #16  
Old 12-18-2019, 11:30 PM
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Originally Posted by HMS Irruncible View Post
I don't want to assume they're so dogshit dumb as that, which is why I welcome this opportunity to see the process work itself out. Naturally there are some who will never stop chugging the kool-aid, but fence-sitters are going to take notice as the collapse of this house of cards becomes more imminent.
I hope you're right.

But we've been saying basically this for almost four years now, and Trump and the GOP poll at almost exactly where they did then. So I don't believe you're right.
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Old 12-18-2019, 11:36 PM
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It's simply an abuse of language to say he was not in his first term.
Yes, and it's a goddamn shame, but life is replete with injustice.
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Old 12-18-2019, 11:44 PM
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I hope you're right.

But we've been saying basically this for almost four years now, and Trump and the GOP poll at almost exactly where they did then. So I don't believe you're right.
I definitely get that fatigue and I get that skepticism. It feels like trials of flunkies have come and gone (though Manafort is in jail, Flynn is about to be sentenced, Epstein is literally physically dead). It feels like investigative efforts have fallen flat - Mueller turned out to be a milquetoast balls-and-strikes Republican, no different than he ever sold himself - neutered himself and punted the hard questions to Congress.

Of course there's no guarantee Republicans won't bury their heads deep in the desert sands of their own ass, to mix some metaphors there, but different things are happening now. Trump is an impeached president. House access to his money-laundering financials are closer than they've ever been before, likely decided in June or earlier. The Senate will soon have to go on record in the matter, and Democrats have quite a bit of say in determining the rules of the process. There are a lot of wild cards and any crack in the dam could prove catastrophic.

That's a long way to say that this is all a process, and it's an uncertain process, and it's good that it's proceeding.
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Old 12-19-2019, 12:07 AM
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From Ashtura's link:

Quote:
But the majority of responders still feel that the president abused the power of his office to gain information about a political opponent to help his position for his 2020 reelection campaign. Over half—51 percent—of those polled believe he did
Seriously? They think he abused the power of his office for political gain, but they don't think he should be impeached? Is this impaired IQ or impaired morality?
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Old 12-19-2019, 12:16 AM
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I definitely get that fatigue and I get that skepticism. It feels like trials of flunkies have come and gone (though Manafort is in jail, Flynn is about to be sentenced, Epstein is literally physically dead). It feels like investigative efforts have fallen flat - Mueller turned out to be a milquetoast balls-and-strikes Republican, no different than he ever sold himself - neutered himself and punted the hard questions to Congress.

Of course there's no guarantee Republicans won't bury their heads deep in the desert sands of their own ass, to mix some metaphors there, but different things are happening now. Trump is an impeached president. House access to his money-laundering financials are closer than they've ever been before, likely decided in June or earlier. The Senate will soon have to go on record in the matter, and Democrats have quite a bit of say in determining the rules of the process. There are a lot of wild cards and any crack in the dam could prove catastrophic.

That's a long way to say that this is all a process, and it's an uncertain process, and it's good that it's proceeding.
What does Epstein have to do with anything?
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Old 12-19-2019, 12:21 AM
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What does Epstein have to do with anything?
That Epstein was likely a primary witness to the actions of Donald J Trump in a sexual context to various children who had not reached the age of majority and did not themselves give consent to sexual congress.
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Old 12-19-2019, 12:26 AM
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That Epstein was likely a primary witness to the actions of Donald J Trump in a sexual context to various children who had not reached the age of majority and did not themselves give consent to sexual congress.
Cite?
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Old 12-19-2019, 12:31 AM
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Cite?
I expect it will be out fairly soon.
  #24  
Old 12-19-2019, 12:35 AM
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I expect it will be out fairly soon.
So you just "feel" like it's true?
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Old 12-19-2019, 12:58 AM
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Old 12-19-2019, 01:21 AM
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How do you think they'll vote in November?
In the Colorado senate race? Against Cory Gardner.
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Old 12-19-2019, 02:28 AM
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The funny thing, from social media, is that for weeks now, both Democrats and Republicans are convinced that Trump's impeachment will propel their side to a big electoral victory next November.

"Trump is getting impeached! Can't wait for the American voters to ________ (deliver our side a landslide) next year!"

It's like a template, and you just substitute (D) or (R) in it.
  #28  
Old 12-19-2019, 04:27 AM
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Thought SNL had the best take on it, Kenan Thompson’s character in the open.
  #29  
Old 12-19-2019, 04:51 AM
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He's still our president.


Democrats just sealed it for his win in 2020
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Old 12-19-2019, 05:09 AM
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The next Democratic president with a Republican House will be impeached and there will be a lot of firsts associated with it.

Last edited by TriPolar; 12-19-2019 at 05:09 AM.
  #31  
Old 12-19-2019, 05:13 AM
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Seriously? They think he abused the power of his office for political gain, but they don't think he should be impeached? Is this impaired IQ or impaired morality?
I think it's something like, "Well, they all do it so why focus on this guy in particular?" or, alternately, "Meh, for a few days they held up some free stuff supposed to go to some shithole country, so what?"

So, bit of both?

Last edited by El_Kabong; 12-19-2019 at 05:14 AM.
  #32  
Old 12-19-2019, 05:14 AM
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Cite?
I don't think it would be surprising at all. https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff...19-7?r=US&IR=T

"I've known Jeff for 15 years. Terrific guy. He's a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."
  #33  
Old 12-19-2019, 05:54 AM
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I don't think it would be surprising at all. https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff...19-7?r=US&IR=T

"I've known Jeff for 15 years. Terrific guy. He's a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."
I mean Bill Clinton flew on Epstein's the "Lolita Express" 26 times, and not always with the Secret Service, Epstein had some weirdo painting of him in his mansion as well. But without more evidence I wouldn't infer that Clinton committed sex crimes with Epstein.

Frankly both of them could have done such a thing and I don't even know if it would surprise me, but I'm not going to suggest it without a little more concrete evidence.

That said, I don't want to hijack the thread anymore, my bad.
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Old 12-19-2019, 08:27 AM
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About not delivering the articles to the senate


There is talk about The House finding a way to not send the articles to The Senate (for now it's McConnell signaling that he won't be fair about conducting the trial), and that having an outstanding indictment is supposed to somehow cast a pall over the administration. Does this make sense to anyone? Because from what I've seen of Trump that just enables him to say he won. Like Saddam declared victory when the US Military left the area following the Kuwait thing. "You attacked but I'm still here. So that means I won!" Those in favor of impeachment will look like they lost, or gave up, or forgot what they were doing. HOWEVER, if they are playing the long game, then they could just put the indictments on the shelf and, if Trump gets a second term AND Dems get The Senate, they can haul them out and vote to remove him. I don't like that idea much at all.
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Old 12-19-2019, 08:47 AM
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Trump will be the first impeached president to stand for re-election, presuming that he’s acquitted by the senate. At that point, I think the collective disgust within middle class America that spurred the midterm results will result in a democratic landslide in 2020.
There simply isn't any chance of a 2020 landslide, unless your definition of "landslide" is, like Donald Trump's, preposterously thin. Each side has a core of 200 electoral votes they simply can't lose.

Trump's popularity is incredibly fixed; his approval rating is the most consistent in the history of the concept.
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Old 12-19-2019, 09:02 AM
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From Ashtura's link:
Seriously? They think he abused the power of his office for political gain, but they don't think he should be impeached? Is this impaired IQ or impaired morality?
Quote:
Originally Posted by El_Kabong View Post
I think it's something like, "Well, they all do it so why focus on this guy in particular?" or, alternately, "Meh, for a few days they held up some free stuff supposed to go to some shithole country, so what?"
Right. To that public, it becomes like Clinton's dalliances, "of course he lied rather than admit getting head in the office! I would too! You can't convict him for THAT!". Now it's "of course he uses his office for personal and partisan advantage! What's power for if not for that?" They see something that's skeevy and distasteful but not criminally skeevy to the point of not putting it up to the regular election to reward or punish.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Inigo Montoya View Post
HOWEVER, if they are playing the long game, then they could just put the indictments on the shelf and, if Trump gets a second term AND Dems get The Senate, they can haul them out and vote to remove him. I don't like that idea much at all.
Except that (besides the question, would articles approved in the 116th Congress stand to be presented to the Senate of the 117th?), they are not going to get 67 votes for removal in the Senate, no matter what. And in this scenario the R minority is going to be holding an even harder line, with the ideal argument "the people rendered their verdict!"
  #37  
Old 12-19-2019, 10:03 AM
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Seriously? They think he abused the power of his office for political gain, but they don't think he should be impeached? Is this impaired IQ or impaired morality?
I expect a good chunk of the people in this category are Democrats who want to see Trump out of office, by whatever means, but believe that impeachment will backfire and cause him to become more popular, resulting in his re-election. I don't agree with this line of reasoning -- I think there is zero evidence that the "rally around Trump" effect works on anybody who wasn't going to vote for him anyway -- but I don't think it makes people either dumb or morally impaired.
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Old 12-19-2019, 10:25 AM
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Johnson completed Lincoln's second term. He never served a term of his own.
ISTM that once Lincoln was dead, the rest of the term belonged to Johnson, no matter who was at the top of the ticket in the previous election, unless and until the Senate voted for his removal, which they didn't.
  #39  
Old 12-20-2019, 03:54 PM
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Does anyone here seriously think that Trump has ever heard of Andrew Johnson?
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Old 12-20-2019, 04:05 PM
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Does anyone here seriously think that Trump has ever heard of Andrew Johnson?
Wasn't he that colored fella who used to play basket ball? Died of AIDS or something?
  #41  
Old 12-20-2019, 04:21 PM
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He's still our president.


Democrats just sealed it for his win in 2020
No, Trump himself has made it very clear that he is only president for a minority of the population. He hates everyone else, and is doing everything he can to make life miserable for a great many people.
  #42  
Old 12-20-2019, 04:30 PM
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Seriously? They think he abused the power of his office for political gain, but they don't think he should be impeached? Is this impaired IQ or impaired morality?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fretful Porpentine View Post
I expect a good chunk of the people in this category are Democrats who want to see Trump out of office, by whatever means, but believe that impeachment will backfire and cause him to become more popular, resulting in his re-election. I don't agree with this line of reasoning -- I think there is zero evidence that the "rally around Trump" effect works on anybody who wasn't going to vote for him anyway -- but I don't think it makes people either dumb or morally impaired.
Yes, agreed. I think there is another chunk of people who know that Trump abused his office for personal gain, but think there is nothing whatsoever wrong with this, and would do the same if they were in a position of power; It's a feature not a bug.
  #43  
Old 12-20-2019, 04:35 PM
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I don't want to assume they're so dogshit dumb as that, which is why I welcome this opportunity to see the process work itself out. Naturally there are some who will never stop chugging the kool-aid, but fence-sitters are going to take notice as the collapse of this house of cards becomes more imminent.
That is what I'm hoping for, as well.
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