View Poll Results: Who raises the most in Q4
Biden 3 18.75%
Buttigieg 3 18.75%
Sanders 9 56.25%
Warren 0 0%
Other 1 6.25%
Voters: 16. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 12-27-2019, 02:03 PM
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Democratic Q4 fundraising predictions


Poll coming. Who do you think will win in Q4 fundraising? Iíll include the top 4 and an other although I honestly canít see any of the second or bottom tier shocking the world.
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  #2  
Old 12-27-2019, 02:13 PM
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Warren sent an email saying that Q4 fundraising was only at 17 million as of now. That’s...not good and may explain her doubling down on the fundraising purity attacks on Pete. I have no idea how much is left in her Senate campaign war chest should she need to transfer more over.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/27/eliz...lows-down.html
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  #3  
Old 12-30-2019, 02:09 PM
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I'm guessing buttigieg. He seems to be coming out as the younger, more charismatic alternative to Biden which means a lot of rich people want him over Warren and sanders.

I'm on Bernie email list. He keeps asking for money but mostly so he can claim he got 5 million individual donations before the year ends. He doesn't really say he wants it for the money itself (they're even asking for a few dollars at a time). So I'm guessing sanders is OK with money this quarter and probably raised 20-30 million but is more concerned with the number of small donations total.
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Last edited by Wesley Clark; 12-30-2019 at 02:09 PM.
  #4  
Old 12-30-2019, 02:27 PM
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Probably paywalled NYT Story with some fundraising info.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.n...crats.amp.html

Twitter link to the author. https://twitter.com/shanegoldmacher/...856247809?s=21

It looks like Sanders will lead in fundraising, but who knows how much that heart attack hurt him in October?

If I had to guess as of today the big 4 would be:
Sanders
Buttigieg
Biden
Warren

I voted for Buttigieg before the NYT article came out today. While I despise Sanders, I can’t deny he’s a fundraising machine with a passionate base of supporters. I thought the heart attack in October would really hurt the $$$ as candidates really need to front load their Q4 fundraising as the holidays get nearer.
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  #5  
Old 01-01-2020, 10:00 AM
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Buttigieg announces early at 24.7 million. I think only Bernie might beat that. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/01/u...core-ios-share

NYT article is probably paywalled
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  #6  
Old 01-01-2020, 05:26 PM
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Bernie sent out an email about receiving 5 million individual donations although not revealing the donation amount. There’s a whisper number of 28.5 million which would be an amazing haul considering the heart attack scare.

I assume he’s waiting for tomorrow to release the actual numbers, I was kinda surprised to see Pete release this morning given the holiday and the slow news day focusing on New Years Resolutions, hangover solutions, and legal marijuana (in the Chicago news market)
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  #7  
Old 01-01-2020, 07:32 PM
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Sanders seemed far more concerned about the number of donations than their dollar value.

In an email today his campaign implied that they hoped to get 50 million donations total if he wins the primary and goes on to run in the general, at an average of $27 each. That will raise over a billion dollars which is about what a presidential campaign costs.

I could see some devoted Bernie fans donating $27/month every month for a year. But still, if only a million voters do that that is only a quarter of the fundraising goal.

I'm not sure if Sanders can run a campaign on small donations alone. It would be groundbreaking if he did, but I'm not sure if its possible.

Then again, ActBlue raised 1.5 billion in 2018, and. Mostly in small donations. Plus around another billion in 2019.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...rms/884400002/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...4aa_story.html
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  #8  
Old 01-01-2020, 07:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Wesley Clark View Post
Sanders seemed far more concerned about the number of donations than their dollar value.

In an email today his campaign implied that they hoped to get 50 million donations total if he wins the primary and goes on to run in the general, at an average of $27 each. That will raise over a billion dollars which is about what a presidential campaign costs.

I could see some devoted Bernie fans donating $27/month every month for a year. But still, if only a million voters do that that is only a quarter of the fundraising goal.

I'm not sure if Sanders can run a campaign on small donations alone. It would be groundbreaking if he did, but I'm not sure if its possible.

Then again, ActBlue raised 1.5 billion in 2018, and. Mostly in small donations. Plus around another billion in 2019.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...rms/884400002/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...4aa_story.html
Yeah, Iíve never seen the focus on the number of donations as being important. If I want to give $100 to a candidate, does it really matter if I make a $100 donation once, twenty $5 donations or 100 $1 donations. Itís kinda like how people tout how enthusiastic Bernieís voters are. The vote counts the same, this isnít Olympic synchronised diving with extra style points for enthusiasm.

It will be interesting to see his fundraising. He could have released the dollar amount today rather just the the donation numbers. I assume heís waiting for tomorrow and a normal work and news day. I think, had he truly blow out Buttigieg, say 30 million or more, he would have released that today.
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  #9  
Old 01-02-2020, 08:02 AM
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Wow! Bernie’s Q4 came in at a mind blowing $34.5 million. That’s much higher than I thought. For a guy who started the quarter with a heart attack, I simply can’t believe it. That surely is going to be the Q4 winner. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...fourth-quarter

I can’t find a detailed breakdown yet , but I’m going to assume there were no transfers from his Senate war chest.

Bernie, I despise you, but I tip my hat to you.
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  #10  
Old 01-02-2020, 09:52 AM
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Bernie is doing great after his heart attack, his health is even better than before. Sanders’s Doctors Say He’s Fit for Presidency After Heart Attack
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  #11  
Old 01-02-2020, 10:06 AM
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Bernie is doing great after his heart attack, his health is even better than before. Sandersís Doctors Say Heís Fit for Presidency After Heart Attack
And Iíll believe that just as much as Trumpís doctors but thatís not the point of this thread.

I tip my hat again to Bernie: he kicked ass and took names with his Q4 fundraising.
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Old 01-02-2020, 10:44 AM
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Originally Posted by dalej42 View Post
Wow! Bernieís Q4 came in at a mind blowing $34.5 million. Thatís much higher than I thought. For a guy who started the quarter with a heart attack, I simply canít believe it. That surely is going to be the Q4 winner. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...fourth-quarter

I canít find a detailed breakdown yet , but Iím going to assume there were no transfers from his Senate war chest.

Bernie, I despise you, but I tip my hat to you.
I'm a Sanders supporter, he has a lot of loyalty from his base who will probably not be affected by things like a heart attack in a 78 year old. Swing voters may, but his base wouldn't.

However Sander's base is probably only about ~10 million people at most.
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  #13  
Old 01-02-2020, 11:41 AM
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I'm a Sanders supporter, he has a lot of loyalty from his base who will probably not be affected by things like a heart attack in a 78 year old. Swing voters may, but his base wouldn't.

However Sander's base is probably only about ~10 million people at most.
Yeah, thereís no doubt heís got the most fervent supporters and itís obvious they stuck with him heart attack be dammed.

Iím a Pete supporter and I would stop donating to him if he suffered a heart attack. Iíd wait until I knew he was healthy and back out on the trail before resuming donations.

And perhaps thatís what some Sanders people did. Once Bernie was back out there, they may have made catch up donations.
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  #14  
Old 01-02-2020, 01:42 PM
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And Iíll believe that just as much as Trumpís doctors but thatís not the point of this thread.

I tip my hat again to Bernie: he kicked ass and took names with his Q4 fundraising.
Sorry, I guess I got confused by you bringing it up in post # 4 and again in post #6, then in post #9 and now I see it again in post #13.
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Old 01-02-2020, 02:25 PM
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Sorry, I guess I got confused by you bringing it up in post # 4 and again in post #6, then in post #9 and now I see it again in post #13.
The reason I brought it up was the effect on fundraising. For the purposes of this thread, I donít care if Bernie is on his deathbed or running the Boston Marathon today, this thread is about Q4 Democratic fundraising and how itíll affect their campaigns going forward.

As Iíve said twice, Bernie kicked ass in Q4 fundraising and has plenty of money to keep his campaign going, hire staff and open field offices. Bernieís staff can go to bed at night knowing the check will clear.

Lack of money killed the Harris and Beto campaigns along with questionable decisions about how to spend the money they had.
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  #16  
Old 01-02-2020, 02:30 PM
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Biden reports at $22.7 million. That’s not great and I can’t wait to see if that means his support is a mile wide but an inch deep. A former VP shouldn’t be behind the former mayor of South Bend and a Senator from Vermont.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...-result-092759

Ok, Liz, we’re waiting on you. It’ll be interesting to see if she tries to bury it on a Friday afternoon news dump.
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  #17  
Old 01-02-2020, 02:39 PM
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I thought Warren said she was near 17 million near the end of hte quarter. If you assume some end of the quarter last minute donations, I'm guessing she got around ~$20 million.
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  #18  
Old 01-02-2020, 02:52 PM
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I thought Warren said she was near 17 million near the end of hte quarter. If you assume some end of the quarter last minute donations, I'm guessing she got around ~$20 million.
Iíll guess 20-21 million as well and thatís really not good for her campaign. I think wasting December on fundraising purity on top of the M4A flip flop may have really hurt her ability to raise money in Q4 and may partially explain Bernieís amazing numbers.

Of course weíre only getting the early numbers now and Iíll be very eager to see the full FEC reports in the middle of the month. Cash on hand as well as if any money came from campaign transfers.
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Old 01-02-2020, 03:48 PM
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Yang reported a very impressive 16.5 million, far more than I would have thought and ten million more than Q3. That’s not the numbers of a minor gadfly so he will be around for a while. I’ve heard his organization is pretty lean so he probably won’t burn though the cash super quickly, but he’s also got to stay viable in IA and NH which means expensive TV ads.
NYT link, may be paywalled.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/02/u...core-ios-share
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  #20  
Old 01-02-2020, 06:01 PM
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Biden reports at $22.7 million. Thatís not great and I canít wait to see if that means his support is a mile wide but an inch deep. A former VP shouldnít be behind the former mayor of South Bend and a Senator from Vermont.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...-result-092759
It is also the highest amount Biden has had yet. So it's actually good news for him (especially when you consider his terrible 3Q).
  #21  
Old 01-03-2020, 09:26 AM
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And we now have Warren in at 21.2 million, last place among the big 4. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...uarter-of-2019

It’s clear wasting December on fundraising purity wasn’t a good strategy.
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Old 01-03-2020, 09:40 AM
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These numbers were huge to me and so I looked it up.

https://www.investopedia.com/insight...ing-president/

Just under $1B was spent on the reelection of President Obama in 2012.

Quote:
The 2016 Election
At the time, many estimates for the presidential election in 2016 said it would cost at least $3 billion; some even put the number as high as $10 billion. At $2.4 billion, it fell a bit short of that but was still a staggering amount. Among the two nominees, Hillary Clinton's campaign spent a total of $768 million, vastly more than the $398 million Donald Trump's campaign spent, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. That $1.16 billion total is actually lower than the 2012 election's $1.97 billion total, the first decline in decades, though it doesn't take into account the value of "earned media" (that is, free media) coverage that the candidates (especially Trump) benefited from. Federal Election Commission filings show that Trump personally contributed a total of $66 million toward his campaign, while Clinton contributed $1.4 million of her own money.
So, even thirty million a quarter is not as much as needed???

Wow.
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Old 01-03-2020, 10:10 AM
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Klobuchar also shocks with 11.4 million way up from 4.8 million in Q3. This looks like a 6 person race for the time being. The huge increases for both Klobuchar and Yang are really surprising and I wonder if it means that a lot of former Beto and Harris supporters are drifting towards them than the big 4.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...fourth-quarter
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  #24  
Old 01-03-2020, 10:35 AM
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And we now have Warren in at 21.2 million, last place among the big 4. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...uarter-of-2019

It’s clear wasting December on fundraising purity wasn’t a good strategy.
Why would that be the case? If she'd raised $4M more (which would have put her ahead of Biden and Buttigieg wrt Q4 fundraising), how much difference would that have made to the viability of her campaign?

A candidate has to raise enough to be competitive, to be able to get their message out. The Q4 differences between Biden, Buttigieg, and Warren just aren't big enough to make a difference.

Look at the fundraising numbers for the year - Biden's in 4th place, man, his campaign must be going down the tubes, amirite? Buttigieg's outraised everyone but Sanders, not just for Q4 but for the year, and he's still at 7.5% per 538.

The top four all have enough money to maintain topnotch campaign staffs and get their respective messages out. A few million either way isn't going to make much difference. How people respond to their messages will.

ETA: Got Q1-Q3 numbers from here.

Last edited by RTFirefly; 01-03-2020 at 10:36 AM.
  #25  
Old 01-03-2020, 11:59 AM
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These numbers were huge to me and so I looked it up.

https://www.investopedia.com/insight...ing-president/

Just under $1B was spent on the reelection of President Obama in 2012.



So, even thirty million a quarter is not as much as needed???

Wow.
30 million a quarter isn't close to enough sadly.

In an email, Sanders mentioned how if he wins the primary he wants 50 million contributions of an average of $20-30 each. I'm not sure if that's possible but if it is it would be a campaign funded entirely by small donors.
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  #26  
Old 01-03-2020, 03:46 PM
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And we now have Warren in at 21.2 million, last place among the big 4. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...uarter-of-2019

Itís clear wasting December on fundraising purity wasnít a good strategy.
Doesn't Sanders have the same 'fundraising purity'? And he outraised everyone.
  #27  
Old 01-03-2020, 03:52 PM
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Doesn't Sanders have the same 'fundraising purity'? And he outraised everyone.
But thatís been Sanders schtick since 2016, probably earlier since heís faced nominal opposition in a cheap state like Vermont.

Warren pulled her nonsense after doing the exact same things she tried to blame Pete for in 2018, loading Ho her senate war chest in anticipation of a presidential run.
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Old 01-03-2020, 04:04 PM
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I feel like you are bringing your bias into a lot of these results, tbh. Warren started falling from the polls quite substantially since October. She's gone from 23% in the national polls to 15%. Had nothing to do with fundraising purity. Had more to do with how she handled her M4A plans.

Anyways in terms of % gains since 3Q, all the major players except Warren seemingly did pretty well - the biggest winners seem to be Klobuchar and Yang with Biden not far behind:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...75543299645441
  #29  
Old 01-03-2020, 09:49 PM
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I feel like you are bringing your bias into a lot of these results, tbh. Warren started falling from the polls quite substantially since October. She's gone from 23% in the national polls to 15%. Had nothing to do with fundraising purity. Had more to do with how she handled her M4A plans.

Anyways in terms of % gains since 3Q, all the major players except Warren seemingly did pretty well - the biggest winners seem to be Klobuchar and Yang with Biden not far behind:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...75543299645441
I agree completely that the M4A flip flop hurt her. Especially at a time when the heart attack should have meant her gathering $$$ and voters.

The wine cave nonsense on the debate stage was an epic blunder and it showed with the endless and desperate end of year emails.

Even tonight, I got a new one when she talks about being about being outraised by the rest of the big 4. Iíll be quite interested to see the burn rate and cash on hand for her campaign when the final FEC report is released.
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