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Old 12-22-2019, 01:27 PM
Northern Piper is offline
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Who will be the next Conservative Party leader in Canada? Who should be?


Following Andrew Scheer’s resignation earlier this month, the Conservative Party of Canada is looking for a new leader. Although the Conservatives took more votes than the Liberals, the Liberals ended up with more seats. Scheer initially said he would stay on, but the discovery that the party was paying part of the tuition for his kids to attend private school seems to have sunk him.

They had announced that the leadership vote would be at the party convention in the fall of 2020. They recently announced that the leadership would be deferred into 2021: https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5405924

The National Post recently published a list of potential candidates, which provides a nice sketch of who’s who in the Tory leadership hopefuls: https://nationalpost.com/news/here-a...rvative-leader

Not mentioned in that list from ten days ago is Jean Charest, former leader of the 2 MP Progressive Conservative caucus in 1993, and subsequently Liberal premier of Quebec. However, his name seems to have popped up as a possible candidate in the last couple of days: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jea...ship-1.5401053

So, Canadopers, any thoughts or predictions?
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Old 12-22-2019, 01:46 PM
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I'd like to see somebody like Peter MacKay, Jean Charest or Christy Clark (Clark or Charest in particular). I'd like somebody who will keep the CPoC from continuing to slip to the right. Basically, as I've said previously, I'd like to see a return of the Progressive Conservative party. I think it will end up being somebody very much like Scheer. I think it will end up being somebody from the west who will appease Alberta and Saskatchewan. Jason Kenney would stand a very good chance if he runs, as would Brad Wall (again if he runs). I think Erin O'Toole has to be considered a frontrunner at this point given how close he came last time. I don't mind O'Toole in theory. He has a very respectable CV; however, he won't take action on climate change so if he's leader, then it would be an uphill battle for him to win my vote. I don't think anybody can win the leadership of the CPoC while pitching taking serious action on climate change. It is a darn shame.
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Old 12-22-2019, 02:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northern Piper View Post
...They had announced that the leadership vote would be at the party convention in the fall of 2020. They recently announced that the leadership would be deferred into 2021: https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5405924 ....
Really? Seems like an awfully long time to be under a lame-duck leader.
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Old 12-22-2019, 02:41 PM
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The gap between Harper and Scheer was also two years. Harper resigned in 2015, after the election defeat, and Scheer was elected party leader in 2017.

However, Harper didn’t stay on as interim leader. Rona Ambrose, who is now being mentioned as a possible contender, acted as interim leader, which allowed some discreet housecleaning behind the scenes. It’s odd for Scheer to be staying as interim leader for two years.
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Old 12-22-2019, 03:17 PM
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However, him staying as interim leader was when they were planning a 2020 convention. Given the school fees issue, and rumours of unusually high office expenses in his office, it may be that the party will put pressure on him to leave sooner. Pure speculation on my part.
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Old 12-23-2019, 02:18 PM
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Most of those suggested names actually seem like reasonable candidates to me, which means I'm predicting none of them will win. I'm betting that they'll choose someone even further right than Scheer, because that's been the go-to plan for the last 20 years.
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Old 12-23-2019, 02:48 PM
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John Baird isn't on the list. He played a big role (or so I've read) in the 2011 election, by realizing that some immigrant citizens are conservative and then getting them to vote. He is currently conducting the Conservative Party review on the 2019 election.

In the 2015 election he didn't play nearly as large a role; the campaign manager that year didn't seem to keen on immigration. In 2019 he traveled from the West to the Toronto region (Doug Ford was ... not available).

I don't know what his social or environmental views are. I only know that he is a pretty good strategist. Maybe he would make a better campaign strategist instead.
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Old 12-23-2019, 04:24 PM
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I do not understand why the private school fees is such an issue. It is not a question of corruption. Why does anyone care what the Conservatives do with their money?

Is Joe Clark still alive? He always seemed pretty decent.
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Old 12-23-2019, 04:45 PM
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As far as I can tell from the news stories, the fee top-up was kept quiet even within the party, so people didn't know that their donations to the party for campaign purposes were actually going, in small part, to the education of Scheer's kids.

That's why the fund-raising council, of which Harper is a member, canned the Executive director of the party when the story broke. He apparently okayed the arrangement, but kept it quiet.
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Old 12-23-2019, 04:49 PM
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Joe is alive, but he's 80. Doubtful he could keep up with the stress of campaigning.

Also, he is anathema to the right-wing in the party, in part because he opposed the merger of the PCs with the Alliance. Considered more of a Red Tory, which doesn't seem part of the current party.
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Old 12-26-2019, 08:55 PM
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Sure, the Conservatives can spend their own money on private school. I heard Harper, still very influential, didn’t know about it and raised a stink. Most members didn’t know about it, maybe even some board members.

Picking a more progressive leader would help the party. But the social conservatives had the clout to smear Scheer and might have more influence.

There are a few conservatives I like. No idea who the party should pick.
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Old 12-30-2019, 05:14 PM
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I don't want to start a whole new thread for this, and this seems closely related enough. Abacus Data has released results on a survey of the CPoC brand. I think it highlights some of the issues we've discussed here and elsewhere. Thos two images that represent the prairie provinces being so closely tied to the CPoC really highlights that at the moment (right or wrong) they're percieved as a regional party. It will be interesting to see if, and how, the CPoC can change this. Assuming they want to, but the survey suggests that they have a big issue with trying to get potential voters nationally.

https://abacusdata.ca/conservative-p...data-branding/
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Old 01-04-2020, 02:10 AM
Northern Piper is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elendil's Heir View Post
Really? Seems like an awfully long time to be under a lame-duck leader.
From your lost to the Tories’ ears:

https://nationalpost.com/news/federa...tened-race/amp

It’s almost like someone at Conservative Central is reading the Dope!
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Old 01-04-2020, 02:18 AM
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That should be “From your post ...”

Darn auto-correct!
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Old 01-04-2020, 02:19 AM
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BeepKillBeep, meant to thank you for posting about that survey. Very interesting reading.
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Old 01-04-2020, 03:03 AM
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Can anyone outside of Ottawa comment on Pierre Poilievre?

I definitely see him in the running.
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Old 01-04-2020, 03:11 AM
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Can anyone outside of Ottawa comment on Pierre Poilievre?

I definitely see him in the running.
Is that the guy who was involved in that robocalls thing? No, that was Pierre Poutine.

Is it the guy with the glorious hair? No, that was Pierre Pettigrew.

Pierre who? I'm from BC and I do try to follow Canadian politics but I can't say he's made any waves here.
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Old 01-04-2020, 11:41 AM
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I know who Pierre is and that some Conservatives think well of him.

The leader of the Alberta Energy Centre/War Room who Freudian slipped his mission “about disproving true facts” one week into the job would make an interesting choice.

Conservative convention bumped up to end of June or July. Better soon, given the party splintering and need for uniting time.
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