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  #51  
Old 01-10-2020, 08:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KarlGauss View Post
Since Soleimani was killed in an "active war zone" (Baghdad), I assume Iran may invoke the same logic and target the US embassy in Baghdad. Iran could launch missiles (via its proxies) from within Iraq and possibly Syria, too, thus not justifying a retaliatory US strike directly on Iran territory. Or would it?

Would this be the excuse Trump was looking for to flat out destroy the Iranian military and leave Iran impotent for a generation? (I am not advocating anything of the sort, of course. Not only is not a long term solution, but it would guaranty fanatic, insatiable, violent anti-Americanism for generations.)
I think attacking an embassy is a complete act of war, while hitting a 'general' who is in charge of irregulars and is known to have been in charge of Iran's terrorist proxies is...well, less a complete act of war I suppose. If Iran was stupid enough to actually attack the US embassy and kill Americans then Trump would have no choice but to strike back, probably much harsher than he did in his 2 Syria strikes. That would pretty much mean we were at war with Iran.

That's why Iran chose a wiser path, though there was a lot of risk in that as well. They had to calculate what Trump's response would be (my WAG is they told the US what they were doing and to get troops under cover, so as to mitigate the risk as much as possible) and their own capabilities as well as the demon Murphy, weighed against the fact that the hardliners need to show they are strong and capable and won't flinch in going head to head with the US if needs be.
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  #52  
Old 01-11-2020, 05:20 PM
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As has been suggested, expect Iranian responses to be strategic and dramatic but not immediate. I fear this POTUS will fairly soon false-flag an attack on the US to justify serious escalation - more dog-wagging to divert focus from his increasing domestic woes. I suspect Ms Pelosi has been handed explosive evidence of DJT's treasons and that's why she's hinting at presenting the Articles of Impeachment next week. We'll see what blows up before then.
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