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  #151  
Old 01-03-2020, 08:33 PM
Chingon is offline
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What would you guess is more common?
  #152  
Old 01-03-2020, 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by UltraVires View Post
I am saying that we have no way of knowing that without seeing the methodology of these studies.
So you're Just Asking Questions.
  #153  
Old 01-03-2020, 10:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Little Nemo View Post
So you're Just Asking Questions.
No. Posters in this thread have made claims that false allegations of sexual assault are vanishingly rare. This being GD, I would like a cite to studies with methodology. I think I have made a decent prima facie case.
  #154  
Old 01-04-2020, 02:24 AM
nelliebly is offline
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Originally Posted by Max S. View Post
I was under the impression that the university cannot compel the production of phone records, "private" social media posts, letters, etc. Neither do I think they can compel testimony from people not affiliated with the school.

So if a victim comes to me without enough evidence to support a case, and involving the municipal authorities is off the table, all I can do is interview the accused. If the accused's testimony is unimpeachable, then what?

Let's say the victim claims that the accused's roommate (who is not a student) was in the room while she was being raped. She alleges that the roommate placed two calls to someone named "Steve", and that they talked about a drug transaction and must have overheard her being raped.

The accused says he was home with his roommate and does not remember if somebody named "Steve" was called. The roommate volunteered testimony and said he could not remember calling anybody, and he has since lost his phone. The roommate refused to volunteer records from the phone company, even as accused asks him, citing personal privacy. Both accused and roommate claim not to know who Steve is.

If I could confirm a "Steve" was really called twice at the time given, that would contradict the accused's testimony. But I can't compel the roommate to produce phone records, and I can't fault the accused if his roommate refuses to volunteer phone records.

~Max
I'm not a lawyer and certainly not one specializing in Title IX cases. I won't address any more hypotheticals. You seem determined to make this into an investigation to determine guilt, and as I've said a few times now, it's not. If the victim has cell phone or social media records, the college could access those. If the accused refuses to hand over evidence he may have, it's not considered. OK?


Here it is one more time:

THE ENTIRE PURPOSE OF A TITLE IX INVESTIGATION IS TO ENSURE THE VICTIM HAS EQUAL ACCESS TO EDUCATION. TITLE IX IS TO HELP THE VICTIM.

REGARDLESS OF ANYTHING ELSE, THE COLLEGE MUST TAKE STEPS TO HELP THE VICTIM, INCLUDING COUNSELING, EXTENDED TIME FOR ESSAYS, ETC.

IF THE EVIDENCE--WHATEVER IT IS--SHOWS THE ACCUSED IS A PROBABLE THREAT TO THE VICTIM OR OTHERS ON CAMPUS, THE COLLEGE COULD EXPEL HIM.

IF THE EVIDENCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS, THE ACCUSED GOES ON HIS MERRY WAY, BUT THE COLLEGE MUST STILL TAKES STEPS (ABOVE, AND MY PREVIOUS POSTS HERE) TO HELP THE VICTIM. NOTHING HAPPENS TO THE ACCUSED.

Last edited by nelliebly; 01-04-2020 at 02:27 AM.
  #155  
Old 01-04-2020, 07:32 PM
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Originally Posted by nelliebly View Post
THE ENTIRE PURPOSE OF A TITLE IX INVESTIGATION IS TO ENSURE THE VICTIM HAS EQUAL ACCESS TO EDUCATION. TITLE IX IS TO HELP THE VICTIM.

REGARDLESS OF ANYTHING ELSE, THE COLLEGE MUST TAKE STEPS TO HELP THE VICTIM, INCLUDING COUNSELING, EXTENDED TIME FOR ESSAYS, ETC.

IF THE EVIDENCE--WHATEVER IT IS--SHOWS THE ACCUSED IS A PROBABLE THREAT TO THE VICTIM OR OTHERS ON CAMPUS, THE COLLEGE COULD EXPEL HIM.

IF THE EVIDENCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS, THE ACCUSED GOES ON HIS MERRY WAY, BUT THE COLLEGE MUST STILL TAKES STEPS (ABOVE, AND MY PREVIOUS POSTS HERE) TO HELP THE VICTIM. NOTHING HAPPENS TO THE ACCUSED.
No need to shout, it actually makes it harder for me to read.

I don't see a difference between expelling a student I find to be a probable threat and determining that he violated the code of conduct (is guilty). I mean, expulsion is discipline. Class reassignment is discipline. To me, the dean, the entire point of bringing in the accused at all is to discipline them. I don't need to do hear anything from the accused to give a victim access to counseling or... did you say extended time for essays?

I mean yes, there is a chance that people could abuse the system and lie about being raped to get free counseling. I'm not sure whether I should be concerned about that.

~Max
  #156  
Old 01-04-2020, 09:15 PM
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Originally Posted by UltraVires View Post
No. Posters in this thread have made claims that false allegations of sexual assault are vanishingly rare. This being GD, I would like a cite to studies with methodology. I think I have made a decent prima facie case.
No you have not, in fact what you are doing is a perfect example of moving the goalposts. You ask for a cite, you are given a great cite, then you say you need a cite for the methodology.

But here is another:

https://www.nsvrc.org/sites/default/...-Reporting.pdf

A review of research
finds that the prevalence of false reporting is between 2 percent and 10 percent. The following
studies support these findings:


and another:
https://www.nationalcac.org/wp-conte...dolescents.pdf

The five studies mentioned above and this study are consistent in suggesting a false allegation rate of between 2 and
8% among child and adolescent reports of sexual abuse.

So, since you are the one making the claim, you come up with a cite that shows that false allegations of sexual assault are common.
  #157  
Old 01-06-2020, 11:45 AM
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Originally Posted by UltraVires View Post
So then throw the accuser out of class. What? It's not a punishment.
So one person is accused of physical assault, the other of.....talking about it.

And you think they should be treated equally?
  #158  
Old 01-06-2020, 12:49 PM
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Accusing someone of a crime is a bit more than just talking.

Regards,
Shodan
  #159  
Old 01-06-2020, 02:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Shodan View Post
Accusing someone of a crime is a bit more than just talking.

Regards,
Shodan

Is it your claim that talking equals physical assault? Internal assault? Do you dispute that physical assault is very different from talking?
  #160  
Old 01-06-2020, 02:40 PM
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I call the police. It’s their job. Not the universities.
Not according to Federal regulations under Title IX. Universities are required to investigate and to provide safe places for students to get their education.
  #161  
Old 01-06-2020, 04:36 PM
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Is it your claim that talking equals physical assault? Internal assault? Do you dispute that physical assault is very different from talking?
Talking is different from assault. Making accusations is also different from talking. I didn't know that needed to be explained.

Do you believe people should be punished for doing something if there is no evidence of their having done it?

Regards,
Shodan
  #162  
Old 01-06-2020, 06:57 PM
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Not according to Federal regulations under Title IX. Universities are required to investigate and to provide safe places for students to get their education.
Yes, but only if the rape occured on Campus, and of course the Univ can ALSO report it to the Police.

The OP stated "There are no state/federal laws that mandate that you take a particular course of action ...". Thus, thereby, under the Ops rules, the assault must have taken place off campus.
  #163  
Old 01-06-2020, 07:54 PM
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No you have not, in fact what you are doing is a perfect example of moving the goalposts. You ask for a cite, you are given a great cite, then you say you need a cite for the methodology.

But here is another:

https://www.nsvrc.org/sites/default/...-Reporting.pdf

A review of research
finds that the prevalence of false reporting is between 2 percent and 10 percent. The following
studies support these findings:


and another:
https://www.nationalcac.org/wp-conte...dolescents.pdf

The five studies mentioned above and this study are consistent in suggesting a false allegation rate of between 2 and
8% among child and adolescent reports of sexual abuse.

So, since you are the one making the claim, you come up with a cite that shows that false allegations of sexual assault are common.
If you read my prior posts, I never asked for any cites. I only asked for the methodology which you very helpfully provided.

Taking your second link, for example, the threshold for a "false allegation" was the subjective belief of a CPS worker. That's all. No science. Just a subjective belief. And when you see what those subjective beliefs are based upon, you see things like almost total impossibility such as when a detail (like an older sibling was present) is testified to by the older sibling to be false.

What if the accuser doesn't make the mistake of inserting that fake detail? What if a different worker had a different gut feeling?

In any event, a random CPS worker (who are notoriously underpaid and are not using anything but gut feeling to make a determination) having a subjective belief is not an accepted method of any sort of scientific calculus. These studies are absolute junk science on their own terms and are politically motivated.
  #164  
Old 01-06-2020, 11:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Max S. View Post
No need to shout, it actually makes it harder for me to read.

I don't see a difference between expelling a student I find to be a probable threat and determining that he violated the code of conduct (is guilty). I mean, expulsion is discipline. Class reassignment is discipline. To me, the dean, the entire point of bringing in the accused at all is to discipline them. I don't need to do hear anything from the accused to give a victim access to counseling or... did you say extended time for essays?

I mean yes, there is a chance that people could abuse the system and lie about being raped to get free counseling. I'm not sure whether I should be concerned about that.

~Max
I very seldom "shout." It's a measure of how frustrating it got that I had to repeat myself. Your continued posts that had apparently ignored what I'd already said made it difficult for me.

Expulsion is certainly a form of discipline. But if you look at the bigger picture, you'll see expulsion only occurs when there's enough evidence for the university to conclude that the accused is, in fact, a threat to students. one more time: the purpose of Title IX is to provide equal access to education. If the only way to ensure that is to expel the accused, that's what will happen. Yes, that's hard for the accused, which is why universities generally don't expel unless there's evidence the accused is a threat to the student population.

You keep referring to a Code of Conduct. This is a separate matter. That is, a university MUST meet Title IX regulations regardless of whether or not there is a Code of Conduct that a student may have violated. If you want to debate whether Codes of Conduct are unfair, start a thread. It'd be interesting. For instance, BYU has expelled women who were raped. The reasoning is that the woman must have violated the Code of Conduct by going to a male student's room or apartment. The male student is not expelled unless there's sufficient evidence of rape.

Changing a class schedule is not discipline. The university may well change the class schedule of the victim. Is she then being disciplined? Of course not. She's being protected.

The point of bringing in the accused is to give him a chance to tell his side of the story. It would be a violation of his Fourth Amendment right to due process to not give him that chance.

The university may indeed offer counseling to the victim upon her complaint, before the process proceeds further. Did you think it was only offered after the investigation was complete???

You really think people would false report in order to get free counseling??! Wow, that is one warped perspective. "Gee, I need help for my depression but can't afford it. I'll lie and say I was raped!" News flash: most universities offer free counseling to students. Sexual assault counseling usually entails meeting a counselor specially trained in helping sexual assault victims. Therefore, the only people who would want or need sexual assault counseling are people who were...wait for it...sexually assaulted.
  #165  
Old 01-07-2020, 01:11 AM
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Originally Posted by UltraVires View Post
If you read my prior posts, I never asked for any cites. I only asked for the methodology which you very helpfully provided.
.....
....

In any event, a random CPS worker (who are notoriously underpaid and are not using anything but gut feeling to make a determination) having a subjective belief is not an accepted method of any sort of scientific calculus. These studies are absolute junk science on their own terms and are politically motivated.
No, they aren't- especially as several are compilations. Dude, if every fucking study says you are wrong, and you have not one cite that agrees with you, you have pretty much crossed the line into misogyny with these posts.
  #166  
Old 01-07-2020, 02:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Shodan View Post
Talking is different from assault. Making accusations is also different from talking. I didn't know that needed to be explained.

Do you believe people should be punished for doing something if there is no evidence of their having done it?

Regards,
Shodan

You answer my questions first. No evasions.

Last edited by margin; 01-07-2020 at 02:39 PM.
  #167  
Old 01-07-2020, 02:52 PM
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Here's a helpful list: Is it your claim that physical assault is EQUAL to talking? "Different" is a weasel word.

"I didn't know that needed to be explained." Is physical----potentially internal----assault equal to talking?

Do you believe that people should be punished for doing something when there's no evidence they did it?

Maybe I should become republican so I could ask questions like this with a straight face. Your "no evidence" demonstrations in the past have indicated you have very different standards of "no evidence". Please specify which standard you are applying here: the one you apply to liberals accusing conservatives, or the one you apply to conservatives accusing liberals.
  #168  
Old 01-07-2020, 03:38 PM
Max S. is offline
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Originally Posted by nelliebly View Post
one more time: the purpose of Title IX is to provide equal access to education

[...]

The point of bringing in the accused is to give him a chance to tell his side of the story. It would be a violation of his [...] right to due process to not give him that chance.
I hope you'll excuse me for reducing your post in this manner. I have isolated what I believe to be your central point, which is that the school administrator must act so as to safeguard both the accuser and accused's rights to due process and equal access to education.

I presume the right to equal access to education includes freedom from violence such as rape. In the hypothetical given by Velocity, a student comes to me (or you) and accuses another student of raping her. As part of the hypothetical, she demands disciplinary action*.

Unfortunately for the accuser, the accused's rights include a presumption of innocence. I consider the presumption of innocence to be an important part of due process. So I run an investigation.

I do not go to the municipal police, at the accuser's specific request.

I do not have the power to compel production of evidence or testimony, especially not from unaffiliated third-parties. At the end of the investigation, both the accuser and accused have clean backgrounds. Neither are known to lie. The testimony of the accuser contradicts the testimony of the accused, but otherwise both are unimpeachable.

The investigation yields insufficient evidence to satisfy the school's standard of proof**. This is part of Velocity's hypothetical, see post #10. As a result, I cannot punish* the accused.

I can still provide other remedies, such as access to counseling or classroom handicaps, so long as these are available to anyone who presents a similarly credible accusation.

Would you recommend a different policy?

* In this case, "discipline" and "punish" means to cause harm as a form of justice, to right a wrong. Expulsion is a harm, because among other things expulsion impedes the right to education. Impeding the right to education is a harm by definition. Class reassignment could also be punishment, if doing so even impedes the right to education (for instance, by requiring another semester to complete the degree).
** In my opinion, the standard should be either clear and convincing evidence or beyond a reasonable doubt. Specifically, I do not believe a statistic on the accuracy of rape accusations in general is enough to punish an individual.

~Max
  #169  
Old 01-08-2020, 08:22 AM
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Originally Posted by margin View Post
Is it your claim that physical assault is EQUAL to talking?
No.
Quote:
Is physical----potentially internal----assault equal to talking?
No.

I hope that is clear enough. So, now your turn.
Quote:
Do you believe that people should be punished for doing something when there's no evidence they did it?

Maybe I should become republican so I could ask questions like this with a straight face. Your "no evidence" demonstrations in the past have indicated you have very different standards of "no evidence". Please specify which standard you are applying here: the one you apply to liberals accusing conservatives, or the one you apply to conservatives accusing liberals.
Pick whatever standard you like. I was using the one in the OP - go back and read it. Then apply that standard.

There is no evidence that the accusation is false. Should the woman be punished for making a false accusation? There is no evidence that the accusation is true. Should the man be punished for assault?

Regards,
Shodan
  #170  
Old 01-08-2020, 03:47 PM
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No, they aren't- especially as several are compilations. Dude, if every fucking study says you are wrong, and you have not one cite that agrees with you, you have pretty much crossed the line into misogyny with these posts.
Asking for the methodology of studies is misogyny? Really??????? That's insane.

We are supposed to fight ignorance, not perpetuate it. Asking for methodology furthers knowledge.
  #171  
Old 01-08-2020, 04:09 PM
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Specifically, I do not believe a statistic on the accuracy of rape accusations in general is enough to punish an individual.
Statistics don't apply to individuals. The principle "better to punish one innocent man than nine guilty go free". is less like Blackstone and Ben Franklin, and more like Otto von Bismarck and Dick Cheney.

Regards,
Shodan
  #172  
Old 01-08-2020, 04:16 PM
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Statistics don't apply to individuals. The principle "better to punish one innocent man than nine guilty go free". is less like Blackstone and Ben Franklin, and more like Otto von Bismarck and Dick Cheney.

Regards,
Shodan
Agreed. I'm sure that most people arrested are guilty and that most civil defendants have done something wrong. I'm further sure that most accusations (>50%) about pretty much anything are true.

That doesn't mean that for any adjudicatory process we have an initial presumption of guilt/liability. That makes the process unfair.

You see this too much in this sort of thing. When rules are proposed, people say "Well, we shouldn't have X because that would be too traumatic for a sexual assault victim to be put through."

Ok, but we are attempting to formulate rules to determine if she is indeed a sexual assault victim and/or if the person she accused is the perpetrator. Those concerns are mere question begging, tend to guide the answer, and are not conducive to a fair process.
  #173  
Old 01-08-2020, 05:10 PM
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Originally Posted by UltraVires View Post
Asking for the methodology of studies is misogyny? Really??????? That's insane.

We are supposed to fight ignorance, not perpetuate it. Asking for methodology furthers knowledge.
No, getting four cites, some from published peer reviewed footnoted papers, and then just dismissing them- without any cites of your own- based upon what I have to feel is a misconception on your part- would be looked upon by some as getting close to that.

Those are published in a Journal. Once someone gives a cite like that, just saying "I dont accept it" doesnt cut it. You have to come up with a counter cite. That's how debates work.

Do you have a cite from a published journal that shows false accusations of rape are more common that what we have shown?
  #174  
Old 01-08-2020, 05:31 PM
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No, getting four cites, some from published peer reviewed footnoted papers, and then just dismissing them- without any cites of your own- based upon what I have to feel is a misconception on your part- would be looked upon by some as getting close to that.

Those are published in a Journal. Once someone gives a cite like that, just saying "I dont accept it" doesnt cut it. You have to come up with a counter cite. That's how debates work.

Do you have a cite from a published journal that shows false accusations of rape are more common that what we have shown?
I do not. However, I am not the one making the claim. I have contended that there is no way possible to have any sort of scientific backing for these claims as it is admitted that most of them are one person's word against another.

That's why I was asking about the methodology in the oft-quoted cites. You would agree that a subjective judgment of an unnamed CPS worker for whom we have no idea of his/her training (as in your second cite) is not scientific methodology, no? And that further we cannot, from those studies, make the statement that because CPS workers believe that an affirmative falsity has occurred in between 2 and 10 percent of reports that "only 2 to 10 percent of accusations of sexual assault are false." It doesn't follow. I KNOW CPS workers. They put their wet finger to the wind and make judgments just like you or me. That is nothing at all like science. Especially when they are indoctrinated with the "believe the victim" mentality and only find falsity when it is based upon impossibility.

Not to bring up Kavanaugh again, but if we took a poll and it was found that 51% of people believed Ford, would you say that you had a good cite that there was a 51% chance that he assaulted her? Of course not.

These opinions of CPS workers do not show veracity or falsity of anything and surely on a site devoted to fighting ignorance we would all demand more of such studies, would we not?

I've got a young daughter. I don't want anything to happen to her. But in the interest of looking at this thing the right way, shouldn't we have the right data?

Last edited by UltraVires; 01-08-2020 at 05:32 PM.
  #175  
Old 01-08-2020, 07:25 PM
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I do not. However, I am not the one making the claim. I have contended that there is no way possible to have any sort of scientific backing for these claims as it is admitted that most of them are one person's word against another.

That's why I was asking about the methodology in the oft-quoted cites. You would agree that a subjective judgment of an unnamed CPS worker for whom we have no idea of his/her training (as in your second cite) is not scientific methodology, no? .....

These opinions of CPS workers do not show veracity or falsity of anything and surely on a site devoted to fighting ignorance we would all demand more of such studies, would we not? ....
I dont know where you are getting the idea that my cite #2 is getting all their methodology from "CPS workers". They give footnoted cites from no less than SIXTEEN published studies, and quote their numbers in their conclusions of "The five studies mentioned above and this study are consistent in suggesting a false allegation rate of between 2 and
8% among child and adolescent reports of sexual abuse" So, what they are saying is that their study confirms what other studies say.

And if you think CPS workers opinions are invalid, then you have to come up with studies from people who you agree are valid. Note that that study is a peer reviewed published study. I dont think you have the qualifications to doubt it. Come up with a opposing study which is also peer reviewed.

The other cite is again a compilation study. They cite no less than FIFTEEN studies which back their conclusions. Again, it's a peer reviewed published study.

Your feeling that these 31 studies may be wrong is frankly worthless, and IMHO these posts seems simply based upon misogyny . Saying "methodology" aint gonna cut it.


where is your cite that the numbers are higher? I gave 31 cites, where is your ONE cite?
  #176  
Old 01-08-2020, 08:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Little Nemo View Post
Quote:
The amount of false reports in comparison to the total number of sexual assaults and rapes is likely closer to .002 to .008%. Statistically, it is overwhelmingly more likely that a person alleging sexual assault or rape is telling the truth than making a false accusation.

cite
I like to think UltraVires is above just-asking-questions, so I'll go to the trouble of checking this cite out for myself.

The Minnesota Law Review gives 0.002%-0.008% as the ratio of false reports compared to actual assaults. The statistic we are actually looking for in this debate is the ratio between false reports and accurate reports.

True, Little Nemo's claim was that "the odds that somebody is a victim of a sexual assault are much higher than the odds that somebody is the victim of a false accusation of sexual assault". But in order to apply this to the thread we need to equivocate on the word "somebody". To be relevant, the claim would need to be that the odds of the accuser telling the truth are greater than the odds of the accused telling the truth. I think the fact that an accusation was made is quite germane here. As such it would be inappropriate to use a statistic that includes unreported sexual assault as if they were all accurate reports of sexual assault.

This is recognized by the article cited by the Minnesota Law Review, a piece on The Cut by Katie Heaney. Ms. Heaney writes,
"One commonly cited figure holds that 5 percent of rape allegations are found to be false, but that figure paints a very incomplete picture, says Belknap. Typically, this figure comes from studies done on college students, an estimated 95 percent of whom do not report their assaults to police. Overall, an estimated 8 to 10 percent of women are thought to report their rapes to the police, which means that — at the very highest — we can infer that 90 percent of rapes go unreported, says Belknap. Obviously, only those rapes that are reported in the first place can be considered falsely reported, so that 5 percent figure only applies to 10 percent (at most) of rapes that occur. This puts the actual false allegation figure closer to 0.5 percent."
As you can read for yourself, the number we are looking for is this "5 percent". A commonly cited figure holds that 5 percent of rape allegations are found to be false. That's a lot more than the fraction of a percent cited before. Ms. Heaney writes a great article and distinguishes between false allegations and lying. She also points out that some rape allegations may be recanted (and thus reported as false) just because the victim doesn't want to go through the police anymore.

So where does the 5% come from? It is implied that the police report this number. I followed the inline link to Ms. Belknap's paper, but unfortunately can only view the first page. There, Ms. Belknap writes, "Although false allegations are 5% of all rapes reported to the police,[...]".

Unfortunately that's a dead end for now. The language used suggests that police themselves come up with the 5%, but I cannot be sure without further research. (I haven't yet looked at the other three cites given).

Belknap, J. (2010, Dec 16). "Rape: Too Hard to Report and Too Easy to Discredit Victims." Violence Against Women, vol. 16, no. 12, pp. 1335-44. doi:10.1177/1077801210387749

Heaney, K. (2018, Oct 5). "Almost No One Is Falsely Accused of Rape." The Cut. Retrieved January 8, 2020 from https://www.thecut.com/article/false-rape-accusations.html


~Max

Last edited by Max S.; 01-08-2020 at 08:08 PM. Reason: fix link
  #177  
Old 01-09-2020, 06:18 PM
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I dont know where you are getting the idea that my cite #2 is getting all their methodology from "CPS workers". They give footnoted cites from no less than SIXTEEN published studies, and quote their numbers in their conclusions of "The five studies mentioned above and this study are consistent in suggesting a false allegation rate of between 2 and
8% among child and adolescent reports of sexual abuse" So, what they are saying is that their study confirms what other studies say.

And if you think CPS workers opinions are invalid, then you have to come up with studies from people who you agree are valid. Note that that study is a peer reviewed published study. I dont think you have the qualifications to doubt it. Come up with a opposing study which is also peer reviewed.

The other cite is again a compilation study. They cite no less than FIFTEEN studies which back their conclusions. Again, it's a peer reviewed published study.

Your feeling that these 31 studies may be wrong is frankly worthless, and IMHO these posts seems simply based upon misogyny . Saying "methodology" aint gonna cut it.


where is your cite that the numbers are higher? I gave 31 cites, where is your ONE cite?
I really don't appreciate the name calling. It's bullshit and its only purpose is to stifle any debate on this topic that it seems everyone should shut up and accept.

For about the fifth time, I agree that there are these studies, many of them, out there which claim that "false allegations" of rape are vanishingly small. I've read almost all of them. I don't doubt their existence.

What I take issue with is how they determine whether a particular allegation is "false." And before you yet again ask for one of my cites, I continue to ask how it is even possible to make a determination of true, undetermined, or false with any sort of real science. As we have seen in the political arena, these are usually not quantifiable facts, but subjective opinions. IOW, not science, nor anything that we can reasonably use to make such a bald declaration that X% of allegations are false.

You would agree that before we can make such an statement that any certain or range of percentages of sexual assault allegations are "false" we must have an objective definition of what it means for an allegation to be "false" right? If we are just asking for subjective beliefs, we might as well take an opinion poll.

Further, shouldn't we determine what is considered "not false"? If false means only those cases that are verifiably proven to be false, shouldn't we recognize that other allegations may be false, yet the evidence was not 100% exculpatory? These studies imply that what is not false is true ("only X% are false") which is not at all supported by the data and is a complete non-sequitur.

All the literature complains that the difficulty in enforcement is due to the overwhelming majority of cases being "he said, she said." How do you determine falsity in that case? By how good of a liar either he or she was in that case?
  #178  
Old 01-09-2020, 06:26 PM
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I like to think UltraVires is above just-asking-questions, so I'll go to the trouble of checking this cite out for myself.

The Minnesota Law Review gives 0.002%-0.008% as the ratio of false reports compared to actual assaults. The statistic we are actually looking for in this debate is the ratio between false reports and accurate reports.

True, Little Nemo's claim was that "the odds that somebody is a victim of a sexual assault are much higher than the odds that somebody is the victim of a false accusation of sexual assault". But in order to apply this to the thread we need to equivocate on the word "somebody". To be relevant, the claim would need to be that the odds of the accuser telling the truth are greater than the odds of the accused telling the truth. I think the fact that an accusation was made is quite germane here. As such it would be inappropriate to use a statistic that includes unreported sexual assault as if they were all accurate reports of sexual assault.

This is recognized by the article cited by the Minnesota Law Review, a piece on The Cut by Katie Heaney. Ms. Heaney writes,
"One commonly cited figure holds that 5 percent of rape allegations are found to be false, but that figure paints a very incomplete picture, says Belknap. Typically, this figure comes from studies done on college students, an estimated 95 percent of whom do not report their assaults to police. Overall, an estimated 8 to 10 percent of women are thought to report their rapes to the police, which means that — at the very highest — we can infer that 90 percent of rapes go unreported, says Belknap. Obviously, only those rapes that are reported in the first place can be considered falsely reported, so that 5 percent figure only applies to 10 percent (at most) of rapes that occur. This puts the actual false allegation figure closer to 0.5 percent."
As you can read for yourself, the number we are looking for is this "5 percent". A commonly cited figure holds that 5 percent of rape allegations are found to be false. That's a lot more than the fraction of a percent cited before. Ms. Heaney writes a great article and distinguishes between false allegations and lying. She also points out that some rape allegations may be recanted (and thus reported as false) just because the victim doesn't want to go through the police anymore.

So where does the 5% come from? It is implied that the police report this number. I followed the inline link to Ms. Belknap's paper, but unfortunately can only view the first page. There, Ms. Belknap writes, "Although false allegations are 5% of all rapes reported to the police,[...]".

Unfortunately that's a dead end for now. The language used suggests that police themselves come up with the 5%, but I cannot be sure without further research. (I haven't yet looked at the other three cites given).

Belknap, J. (2010, Dec 16). "Rape: Too Hard to Report and Too Easy to Discredit Victims." Violence Against Women, vol. 16, no. 12, pp. 1335-44. doi:10.1177/1077801210387749

Heaney, K. (2018, Oct 5). "Almost No One Is Falsely Accused of Rape." The Cut. Retrieved January 8, 2020 from https://www.thecut.com/article/false-rape-accusations.html


~Max
I'm not "just asking questions" and it is unfortunate that any discussion about this is tinged with such ridiculous defensiveness that you feel the need to give me the benefit of the doubt. I appreciate it, but the benefit of the doubt of what? That I am secretly hoping that men get away with rape? Does that include my daughter or sisters or does my evil mind exempt them? I'm not sure what underhanded motivation some are suggesting I have here.

Anyways, as I said above, I have read these cites, and after you read one, you come to the same conclusion. They do not disclose how they determine an allegation's falsity except to say that is what the cops told them. How the cops determine it is left up in the air. Is it convictions or arrests (which is simply another way of saying that the cops subjectively believe the allegation)?

Further, "the ratio between false reports and accurate reports" is not what is being gathered here. There must be an "undetermined" category in the middle here and if it is scientific, there should be a published margin of error.

If you find a real methodology in any of this, I would be glad to hear it.
  #179  
Old 01-09-2020, 06:45 PM
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I'm not "just asking questions" and it is unfortunate that any discussion about this is tinged with such ridiculous defensiveness that you feel the need to give me the benefit of the doubt.
I also find such a tinge disappointing, but for your own edification the standard motivation behind "just asking questions" would be to derive pleasure by wasting other people's time. I like to think most everybody on the Straight Dope is above that.

I am slightly confused if the police are behind the 5%-of-rape-accusations-are-false statistic. Certainly the police aren't using conviction to determine whether a rape accusation is true; if that were the case, 95% of rape accusations would result in conviction (civil or criminal) and we wouldn't have cause for this discussion. If the police are making their own determination based on evidence, and use the standard of at least clear and convincing evidence, I would conclude that there is a critical problem somewhere between police and the courtroom: either corruption or problems admitting evidence or plain and actionable incompetence.

If the police are using some lesser standard, or a subjective or one-sided process, then that really isn't useful for the purposes of this discussion. The whole pyramid of research based on the 5% number would be inapplicable unless we deny the accused of his rights.

~Max
  #180  
Old 01-09-2020, 07:44 PM
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You and UV might have uncovered a tremendous conspiracy here. I'd be interested to get updates on your sleuthing.
  #181  
Old 01-09-2020, 08:13 PM
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You and UV might have uncovered a tremendous conspiracy here. I'd be interested to get updates on your sleuthing.
I think it's much more likely that I just don't know as much as other people.

~Max
  #182  
Old 01-09-2020, 11:09 PM
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No.
No.

I hope that is clear enough. So, now your turn.
Pick whatever standard you like. I was using the one in the OP - go back and read it. Then apply that standard.

There is no evidence that the accusation is false. Should the woman be punished for making a false accusation? There is no evidence that the accusation is true. Should the man be punished for assault?

Regards,
Shodan
You're accepting the conditions of a hypothetical set by someone with an obvious agenda. I don't.
  #183  
Old 01-09-2020, 11:52 PM
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I really don't appreciate the name calling. It's bullshit and its only purpose is to stifle any debate on this topic that it seems everyone should shut up and accept.
...

All the literature complains that the difficulty in enforcement is due to the overwhelming majority of cases being "he said, she said." How do you determine falsity in that case? By how good of a liar either he or she was in that case?
By no means am I "name calling". You may be the most woke and feminist man on the planet for all I know. But your posts are coming across badly.

It's OK to have doubts, but in order to make those doubts valid you have to have something to hang your hat on. We have now shown you like three dozen studies, and they all same the same thing. No study, anywhere, I have found that supports that false accusations are in any way "common". YOU have not found such a study or cite. There is a complete and total consensus on every expert on this subject- law enforcement, sociologists, social workers, and so forth. NO ONE disagrees.

And sure, on a individual case study it's hard to know the truth, but this is based upon tens of thousands of them. Is everyone lying?


It's like we're arguing Global warming and you have doubts as to a study or two, and everyone is pointing to a huge pile of evidence.


So, despite the no doubt wonderful human being you are IRL*, your arguments here, in this thread- are coming across as misogynistic.

* and I know I come across on this board as being far more argumentative and hidebound that I am IRL also. I rarely get into (for example) gun control debates IRL.
  #184  
Old 01-10-2020, 12:26 AM
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By no means am I "name calling". You may be the most woke and feminist man on the planet for all I know. But your posts are coming across badly.

It's OK to have doubts, but in order to make those doubts valid you have to have something to hang your hat on. We have now shown you like three dozen studies, and they all same the same thing. No study, anywhere, I have found that supports that false accusations are in any way "common". YOU have not found such a study or cite. There is a complete and total consensus on every expert on this subject- law enforcement, sociologists, social workers, and so forth. NO ONE disagrees.

And sure, on a individual case study it's hard to know the truth, but this is based upon tens of thousands of them. Is everyone lying?


It's like we're arguing Global warming and you have doubts as to a study or two, and everyone is pointing to a huge pile of evidence.


So, despite the no doubt wonderful human being you are IRL*, your arguments here, in this thread- are coming across as misogynistic.

* and I know I come across on this board as being far more argumentative and hidebound that I am IRL also. I rarely get into (for example) gun control debates IRL.
I never suggested that false allegations are common. Never, not once. I have read these studies for years and have found the methodology wanting. If that makes me sound misogynistic then I'm not sure why. I hate women because I question the methodology of these studies?

And again, I don't care if there are a million of them. If the methodology is poor, then the studies are poor. If I am in tin foil hat territory, then surely someone can point out some good methodology somewhere. And I'm not asking you to do my homework for me. I've tried to find them and cannot. I have paid experts to find them and they cannot. I have cross examined state expert witnesses on this point and they have no answer.

I simply think that in the spirit of fighting ignorance, we should not be passing off personal opinion as science.
  #185  
Old 01-10-2020, 09:07 AM
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This is a very strange spin honestly.

"Trial by statistics", either explicitly or implicitly what the evaluation of every bit of evidence is in criminal cases.

How likely is it that the sample we have came from the accused v could it have been someone else? Can we exclude it and if it is a "match" to what degree of confidence? The subject is literally called "forensic statistics".
These are examples of weighing evidence. Our scenario has none.

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What do I think the odds are A is being truthful? B? If A identifies B as the person who had held them up and B denies it, and there is no other evidence, then we would likely say that A is less likely lying than B. We are using historical data that victims are less likely to lie in this circumstance.
This is not an example of weighing evidence. The conduct of others has no bearing on my likely conduct.

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Your position is that using science is a trial is wrong and terrifying. That making an assessment informed by historical information is wrong and terrifying. That position frankly is wrong and terrifying.
The proposal is to automatically punish the accused based on the ratio of what other people have done. Without evidence. That's not science.

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Again in a legal trial the standard is "beyond any reasonable shadow of a doubt" and a college administrative has a lower standard.
You are correct, it's called preponderance of evidence. It's not like I go to small claims and the judge starts with the assumption that I'm correct because most landlords are correct, or vice versa.

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In this hypothetical one or the other will be harmed to some degree. A decision has to be made as to whom. That decision has to be informed by an assessment (based on history, based on statistics, based on rational arguments) who is more likely telling the truth, and an assessment of the harms of each action, both to the individuals and to others.
Nobody is required to be harmed in this scenario; the school does not have to force anyone out of class. The scenario does not tell us if anyone was assaulted. And if someone was, the school may offer the option of alternative class accomodations. Maybe to both parties.

Last edited by Ruken; 01-10-2020 at 09:08 AM.
  #186  
Old 01-10-2020, 01:11 PM
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The evidence is eye witness first hand testimony of the alleged victim. Other evidence in the opposite direction is the denial by the alleged perpetrator.

If you do not count those giving claimed eye witness testimony as evidence then you are staking out an uncommon position.

Past experience with others informs on which of those two bits of evidence is more often truthful and which is more likely not.

A rape victim being forced to go to a small class environment with their rapist is a harm significant harm to the victim and even to other women in the class aware of the event. Forcing her to choose between that harm and the harm of not taking the class would only add harm. A no harm belief is only possible under the assumption that she is being untruthful.
  #187  
Old 01-10-2020, 01:26 PM
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And again, I don't care if there are a million of them. If the methodology is poor, then the studies are poor. If I am in tin foil hat territory, then surely someone can point out some good methodology somewhere. And I'm not asking you to do my homework for me. I've tried to find them and cannot. I have paid experts to find them and they cannot. I have cross examined state expert witnesses on this point and they have no answer.
Are there any studies on false accusations of any kind (sexual or otherwise) that you've found to have good methodology? For example, are there any studies about false accusations of robbery that you think have good methodology? If so, it might be relevant in terms of understanding how common it is to make a false accusation of any kind in the first place. And especially in the scenario in the OP, where it was said that the accuser has a clean record and is not known to lie. In a general sense, how likely is it for such a seemly honest and law-abiding person to make a false accusation of any kind?
  #188  
Old 01-10-2020, 04:13 PM
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This is a very strange spin honestly.

"Trial by statistics", either explicitly or implicitly what the evaluation of every bit of evidence is in criminal cases.

...
To ignore statistics would be reckless.
Nobody is saying to ignore statistics. But how you are applying them here is insane. You don't realize it yet, but it is.

Black people, for example, statistically, commit more crimes. Therefore, according to your logic, we should punish them. To be fair, let's just punish those accused of crimes. Because what's more likely, that someone mistakenly accused a random black person of a crime, or that they committed the crime? Occam's razor does all the heavy lifting here, no need for expensive lawyers.

Who has the statistics on how many crime accusations are false? Not very many, I'm sure. I mean, trials and judges cost a lot of money, so let's use those statistics and save a bundle by just caging black people! And we should check the statistics further, because if it turns out accusations are more likely to be true than not regardless of race, we could dispense with the justice system entirely! Can't do the time? Don't be accused of a crime!

And statistics don't work anyway when you change the rules. Sure, maybe only 2% of rape accusations are false now, but once it is known that you can get anybody punished just by accusing them of rape, you think those statistics will stay the same? Should we constantly monitor the statistics and adjust our policies daily or weekly to stay current?

Also, I'm with UV here. It's not wrong to examine methodology and to call bullshit when it looks bad. Scientific authors aren't infallible. The whole point of publishing a study is to go over it with a fine tooth comb to see if it it can stand the scrutiny. It is absolutely not misogynist to be skeptical of what looks to be faulty science.

And I can't even imagine a methodology that could conclude anything at all about what percentage of accusations are false. My ignorance isn't evidence the study is wrong, but can't you just explain the methods to us, anyway, to make us feel more comfortable with the conclusions you want us to accept?
  #189  
Old 01-12-2020, 04:59 PM
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Here is what Title IX says:

after the "except that" it lists where discrimination on the basis of sex is permissible. As an aside, it is utterly amazing that the government can impose upon universities these requirements because of that language.

For example, why couldn't a university say that they will have no policy at all regarding sexual assault allegations and leave that to the police? How is that discrimination "on the basis of sex"?
I've been away for the holidays so this may have already been answered--but it has largely been through Department of Education written regulations and non-binding "guidance" (like the "Dear Colleague" letter the Obama DoE sent to universities), the universities have largely been pliant to this stuff because the alternative is litigating with the government the precise parameters of the statute, which ultimately would probably be a bad ball of wax for the universities whether they win or lose.
  #190  
Old 01-12-2020, 06:35 PM
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The evidence is eye witness first hand testimony of the alleged victim. Other evidence in the opposite direction is the denial by the alleged perpetrator.

If you do not count those giving claimed eye witness testimony as evidence then you are staking out an uncommon position.

Past experience with others informs on which of those two bits of evidence is more often truthful and which is more likely not.
My trustworthiness vs any other rando's trustworthiness is not dependent on the trustworthiness of other people accused of the same crime. Civil sexual assault cases rely on the same low standard of evidence, and I can't get money from someone merely on an accusation plus historical data. Nor should I.

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A rape victim being forced to go to a small class environment with their rapist is a harm significant harm to the victim and even to other women in the class aware of the event. Forcing her to choose between that harm and the harm of not taking the class would only add harm. A no harm belief is only possible under the assumption that she is being untruthful.
At least we have some acknowledgement that the accused is being harmed by being removed from class.

Although the idea that a third party would be harmed merely by knowing about an accusation is suspect.
  #191  
Old 01-12-2020, 07:13 PM
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Dr. Cube, again not criminal court, not same burden of proof.

Ruken your comparison to civil sexual assault is more on point. Those cases often hinge on who is believed as more credible. The fact that false accusations are rare and denials by guilty parties common is part of that balance.

Of course reality is that in no case is there no other evidence to consider. Did the alleged victim tell anyone else of the event after it occurred? Was there a change in the alleged victim's behavior after the time of the alleged event (dropped classes, change in sleep habits, seeking of mental health services, etc.)? So on. A complete lack of any circumstantial corroboration is evidence of sorts as well, and might tip the scale of "more likely than not" the other way.
  #192  
Old 01-13-2020, 12:07 AM
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I hope you'll excuse me for reducing your post in this manner. I have isolated what I believe to be your central point, which is that the school administrator must act so as to safeguard both the accuser and accused's rights to due process and equal access to education.

I presume the right to equal access to education includes freedom from violence such as rape. In the hypothetical given by Velocity, a student comes to me (or you) and accuses another student of raping her. As part of the hypothetical, she demands disciplinary action*.

Unfortunately for the accuser, the accused's rights include a presumption of innocence. I consider the presumption of innocence to be an important part of due process. So I run an investigation.

I do not go to the municipal police, at the accuser's specific request.

I do not have the power to compel production of evidence or testimony, especially not from unaffiliated third-parties. At the end of the investigation, both the accuser and accused have clean backgrounds. Neither are known to lie. The testimony of the accuser contradicts the testimony of the accused, but otherwise both are unimpeachable.

The investigation yields insufficient evidence to satisfy the school's standard of proof**. This is part of Velocity's hypothetical, see post #10. As a result, I cannot punish* the accused.

I can still provide other remedies, such as access to counseling or classroom handicaps, so long as these are available to anyone who presents a similarly credible accusation.

Would you recommend a different policy?

* In this case, "discipline" and "punish" means to cause harm as a form of justice, to right a wrong. Expulsion is a harm, because among other things expulsion impedes the right to education. Impeding the right to education is a harm by definition. Class reassignment could also be punishment, if doing so even impedes the right to education (for instance, by requiring another semester to complete the degree).
** In my opinion, the standard should be either clear and convincing evidence or beyond a reasonable doubt. Specifically, I do not believe a statistic on the accuracy of rape accusations in general is enough to punish an individual.

~Max
With all due respect, you're still not getting it. The purpose of Title IX is to protect students from sexual assault and sexual harassment, which have been seen by the courts as forms of sexual discrimination as covered under Title IX. The rights of the accused are not a part of Title IX. So no, Title IX is not concerned with "safeguard[ing] both the accuser and accused's rights to due process and equal access to education." It's concerned with protecting students from sexual assault and harassment and the negative impact those things can have on their education. YOU are adding the protections toward the accused. The accused certainly has the right to due process under the Fourth Amendment, but since Title IX is concerned ONLY with the protection against sexual harassment and assault, the accused's rights are not covered under Title IX.


You keep saying you assume things about Title IX. Your assumptions are often wrong. Why not take the two minutes (literally) to read a brief explanation than to continue to make false assumptions? If you still have questions, you might need to do 10-15 minutes of research to keep from continually assuming incorrectly. You can do that, right?
  #193  
Old 01-13-2020, 02:28 AM
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With all due respect, you're still not getting it. The purpose of Title IX is to protect students from sexual assault and sexual harassment, which have been seen by the courts as forms of sexual discrimination as covered under Title IX. The rights of the accused are not a part of Title IX. So no, Title IX is not concerned with "safeguard[ing] both the accuser and accused's rights to due process and equal access to education." It's concerned with protecting students from sexual assault and harassment and the negative impact those things can have on their education. YOU are adding the protections toward the accused. The accused certainly has the right to due process under the Fourth Amendment, but since Title IX is concerned ONLY with the protection against sexual harassment and assault, the accused's rights are not covered under Title IX.


You keep saying you assume things about Title IX. Your assumptions are often wrong. Why not take the two minutes (literally) to read a brief explanation than to continue to make false assumptions? If you still have questions, you might need to do 10-15 minutes of research to keep from continually assuming incorrectly. You can do that, right?
If we assume for the sake of argument that the text of Title IX requires these types of investigations, doesn't it stand to reason that the process afforded the accused must be fair and designed to get at the truth? If not, and the proceedings are a sham, then the school is not protecting against sexual assault and sexual harassment because they have not had a proper inquiry to see if these things even happened in the first instance. Punishing innocent people does not help solve the sexual assault and harassment issues and if this disproportionately falls upon men, then those students are denied education "because of sex."

That is beyond the constitutional due process requirements that the accused has and is implicit even in this expansive reading of Title IX.
  #194  
Old 01-13-2020, 05:56 AM
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3. No DNA/forensic evidence has been obtained or examined...

What would you do in this situation?
Stop. Right there.
  #195  
Old 01-13-2020, 06:41 AM
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The fact that false accusations are rare and denials by guilty parties common is part of that balance.
Oh jeez, and I'm going to use those statistics to my advantage. I'm not falsely accusing, how can I, when the statistics are too low for me to do so, and his denial is expected, because everyone denies everything. How about, in a given case, you ignore probability and decide the case on forensics? If a rape case can't be forensically adjudicated, you're suggesting rolling dice. This isn't necessarily a rail against you, but the dumb thinking that a woman who claims she was raped must be telling the truth because of statistics.
  #196  
Old 01-13-2020, 02:39 PM
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Because for a certain type of dude, the only interesting part of rape is the dude. The girl is just a prop. And the only way it's really, really interesting is if the story could be about THEM, and since they aren't rapists, it must be a woman crying rape.

To the OP:

Who knows what an investigation would uncover? That's the point of an investigation. One of them is lying. One of them will have holes in their story. One of the ways our culture enables rape is by chucking things into the "he said, she said" category far too soon.

You are constructing a strawman, a massively over-simplified scenario that doesn't match the real world because it's never simple.

I mean, this is like "hypothetically, if one of the foods in the student union caused catastrophic intestinal collapse, but you don't know which one and have no way to tell, what should you do?" Who cares? It won't ever be like that.
If food in the student union (University cafe?) causes intestinal collapse (not wholly sure what that is), then a thorough scientific investigation would result, not a "who cares?" scenario. Rape. Food. Over-simplifying, you add.

Last edited by Harrington; 01-13-2020 at 02:40 PM.
  #197  
Old 01-13-2020, 03:42 PM
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The rights of the accused are not a part of Title IX. So no, Title IX is not concerned with "safeguard[ing] both the accuser and accused's rights to due process and equal access to education." It's concerned with protecting students from sexual assault and harassment and the negative impact those things can have on their education. YOU are adding the protections toward the accused. The accused certainly has the right to due process under the Fourth Amendment, but since Title IX is concerned ONLY with the protection against sexual harassment and assault, the accused's rights are not covered under Title IX.
Right, yes, correct, and I totally agree.

It is me who brings the accused's rights into the picture, Title IX does not do this. Well, actually I think it does because of how I view the legal basis for Title IX. But that's irrelevant - I would afford the accused person certain rights regardless of the text or meaning of Title IX. As the school administrator I have the responsibility of weighing the accuser's rights (given by Title IX, etc) against the accused's rights (given by Amend. V, etc). It's a balancing act and it is my job to balance these two rights.

~Max
  #198  
Old 01-14-2020, 12:45 AM
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Dr. Cube, again not criminal court, not same burden of proof.

Ruken your comparison to civil sexual assault is more on point. Those cases often hinge on who is believed as more credible. The fact that false accusations are rare and denials by guilty parties common is part of that balance.
That's insanity and it is not how it works.

Yes, criminal court has a higher standard of proof, but it is no part of that proof to use statistics in the way that you are. Let's use the civil case so you don't keep knocking down the strawman.

If I claim that my neighbor punched me and caused $2,500 in hospital bills, then the case is based on the evidence that is presented. It matters not if false allegations in this context are generally rare; it only matters if I am making a false allegation. Every person deserves that individualized consideration.

Or should we have as Dr. Cube said? What if my neighbor is black? Would you believe that it is acceptable to use statistics to show that blacks are disproportionately involved in violent crime; or if my neighbor was a woman that it should be pointed out that it is less likely for a woman to be involved in violent crime? If I am a rich white man accused of murder (under a wrongful death civil suit) should I get a benefit because murders by rich white men are shockingly rare?

We do not use general statistics to judge individuals, even if you could prove, which you haven't, this 5% statistic. It matters not if I'm accused of rape and only 5% of allegations are false. I have every right to prove that I'm one of those 5% on an equal playing field, not starting out two scores down because of that fact.

If taken generally, your argument would destroy any semblance of fairness in anything. Those in privileged groups would keep getting a pass while minorities would continue to be wrongfully accused. And it would just get worse from there.
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