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Old 12-05-2019, 07:37 PM
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Sanders ahead in California


https://www.latimes.com/politics/sto...alifornia-poll

And biden is behind warren in this poll.
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Old 12-05-2019, 07:51 PM
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This is thread worthy? Are we gonna have a new thread for every polling update until next year?
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Old 12-05-2019, 07:54 PM
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This is thread worthy? Are we gonna have a new thread for every polling update until next year?
Only if the polling update puts Sanders in the lead, I suspect.
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Old 12-05-2019, 07:56 PM
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Only if the polling update puts Sanders in the lead, I suspect.
Even if that “lead” is within the margin of error.
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Old 12-05-2019, 07:58 PM
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As it is in this case.

(Which I figure was your point, but just to make it explicit.)

Last edited by RTFirefly; 12-05-2019 at 07:59 PM.
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Old 12-05-2019, 08:06 PM
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Only if the polling update puts Sanders in the lead, I suspect.
And all the numerous polls that show Sanders in 3rd or 4th get written off.
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Old 12-05-2019, 08:12 PM
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From the Mueller report, page 23:

Quote:
By February 2016, internal IRA documents referred to support for the Trump campaign and opposition to candidate Clinton. For example, instructions to IRA specialists: “Main idea: Use any opportunity to criticize Hillary (Clinton) and the rest (except Sanders and Trump – we support them).”
(all emphasis mine)

IRA stands for Russia's Internet Research Agency.

Just a little thing worth noting about the help Bernie received in 2016. He didn't ask for it, but he received it all the same. It's not beyond pondering he may receive such help again. Maybe is already.
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Old 12-05-2019, 08:17 PM
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Here we go again with the poll BS. I've voted in every 4 year and mid-term elections for 3 decades. Not ONCE have I been polled, unless high school poll counts. Here's one CA resident who won't vote for Bernie as president of a hot dog stand or anything above.
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Old 12-05-2019, 08:23 PM
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Here we go again with the poll BS. I've voted in every 4 year and mid-term elections for 3 decades. Not ONCE have I been polled, unless high school poll counts. Here's one CA resident who won't vote for Bernie as president of a hot dog stand or anything above.
You're not saying you think polls are bullshit because you've never been polled, are you? Because I've never been called for jury duty but I'm pretty sure juries are a real thing.

Last edited by CarnalK; 12-05-2019 at 08:26 PM. Reason: forgot the zinger!
  #10  
Old 12-05-2019, 08:45 PM
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You're not saying you think polls are bullshit because you've never been polled, are you? Because I've never been called for jury duty but I'm pretty sure juries are a real thing.
I wouldn't equate juries with voters. Hell, some voters are high on crack when they vote. I'm saying polls are crap whether they ask me or not. Too much weight is put on them. I think part of the many reasons Clinton didn't win or others don't win. They hear, oh, the polls say she or he will win, so let's not vote. Let's get donuts instead.

Polls, schmolls. I'm voting based on who I think is best for the job.

ETA: And IMHO, 538 is THE WORST out of all of them.

Last edited by Locrian; 12-05-2019 at 08:47 PM.
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Old 12-05-2019, 08:58 PM
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Yeah, no offense but that's not reality based. I'm not saying you should vote based on polls (does anybody?) but good polls usually give a pretty accurate description of how people are feeling on a issue as clear cut as voting preference. And the fact that you don't know 538 isn't a pollster is a cherry on top.

Last edited by CarnalK; 12-05-2019 at 09:01 PM.
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Old 12-05-2019, 09:46 PM
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So, this tells me that Sanders and Warren will be splitting delegates and that Biden and Pete will also pick up some. It’s regrettable that Harris has left the race as there’s 7% up for grabs as well.

I’m going to assume ( and I know what happens when you assume) that no campaign has much of a ground game or advertising in expensive CA as of now and that only Harris was focusing on it.

Hillary crushed Sanders in CA in 2016 so I’m not going to say that either Warren or Sanders is going to run away with it. There’s a huge state outside of the Bay Area activists.
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  #13  
Old 12-05-2019, 09:53 PM
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Polls conveniently don't matter when they don't have biden on top huh?
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Old 12-05-2019, 10:01 PM
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Polls conveniently don't matter when they don't have biden on top huh?
Biden leading polls don't get their own thread. If they did this entire sub-forum would be spammed with "Biden ahead in..."
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Old 12-05-2019, 10:16 PM
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Even if that “lead” is within the margin of error.
According to OP's graphic, Sanders and Warren were neck-and-neck in June and are neck-and-neck now. What is significant is (a) Warren soaring in August-September, then having her bubble popped, and (b) Buttigieg gaining on Biden. Both of these are also nation-wide trends.

And, while I love California and I love Californians, their voters' views are completely irrelevant! The priority is to get a solid victory in November 2020; the voter who matters is a grumpy homophobe in the Rust Belt.
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Old 12-05-2019, 10:26 PM
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Agreed. The joyous homophobes are ungettable.
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Old 12-05-2019, 10:54 PM
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The priority should be getting that University of Wisconsin student who didn’t get their first choice of Warren or Bernie and will have to cast a vote for Biden or Buttigieg.
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  #18  
Old 12-05-2019, 11:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Barack Obama View Post
https://www.latimes.com/politics/sto...alifornia-poll

And biden is behind warren in this poll.
So?

I don't get how this is relevant. Cali will go to whoever the D's nominate. Period.

Last edited by Kolak of Twilo; 12-05-2019 at 11:16 PM.
  #19  
Old 12-06-2019, 12:07 AM
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So?

I don't get how this is relevant. Cali will go to whoever the D's nominate. Period.
Who California is leaning towards might change who's nominated. I figured that was the "So?".
  #20  
Old 12-06-2019, 12:08 AM
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Originally Posted by Locrian View Post
Here we go again with the poll BS. I've voted in every 4 year and mid-term elections for 3 decades. Not ONCE have I been polled, unless high school poll counts. Here's one CA resident who won't vote for Bernie as president of a hot dog stand or anything above.
My brother was once exit-polled, and deliberately gave all wrong answers.

And Pete Buttigieg is in first place in Iowa.
  #21  
Old 12-06-2019, 12:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Boycott View Post
Biden leading polls don't get their own thread. If they did this entire sub-forum would be spammed with "Biden ahead in..."
But the entire sub wont be spammed with Biden popularity matching trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...able-6677.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...able-5493.html

Let's be clear, a vote for Biden, is a vote for Trump.
  #22  
Old 12-06-2019, 12:57 AM
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But the entire sub wont be spammed with Biden popularity matching trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...able-6677.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...able-5493.html

Let's be clear, a vote for Biden, is a vote for Trump.
What are you talking about? Your links show Biden as (slightly) more popular than Trump. And IIRC the "If election were today between Trump and X, who would you vote for?" polls show X=Biden ahead of all other X except possibly Michelle Obama.
  #23  
Old 12-06-2019, 01:43 AM
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Let's be clear, a vote for Biden, is a vote for Trump.
Quote:
Originally Posted by septimus View Post
What are you talking about?
It's looking like some Sanders voters will refuse to vote for any Democrat except Sanders. They'd rather have Trump get re-elected than see some other Democrat win.
  #24  
Old 12-06-2019, 01:56 AM
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I am *shocked*.
  #25  
Old 12-06-2019, 02:12 AM
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It's looking like some Sanders voters will refuse to vote for any Democrat except Sanders. They'd rather have Trump get re-elected than see some other Democrat win.
Here's the thing, outside of your bubble in the real world people actually feel the effects of these policies and positions held by candidates. Americans, are by and large fed up with the status quo. The only way, and i mean ONLY WAY, you're going to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college is if you completely wipe him out. A narrow race with low voter turn out like in 2016 isn't going to work.

If you want to beat a fake populist you need to run an actual populist. Biden offers absolutely nothing new, and the entirety of his base is due to name recognition from being Obama's VP, Excessive media coverage with both media and DNC doing their damnest to push him to the front, and 45+ year old white men who think they can find a middle grown with republicans. Guess what, you lost a thousand fkn seats under obama, your centrist positions don't work. You need to drag the overton window to the left, and force Democrats like Joe Manchin to vote for what you want passed, and if they don't you get their asses kick outta office by helping a progressive campaign against them.
  #26  
Old 12-06-2019, 02:19 AM
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It is morally unacceptable to expect people in a democracy to vote for someone they don't like because the other person is even more of a monster than they are. You know what you should do? Vote for whoever you want to, and we should be running with that message and not telling each other to vote blue no matter what. Vote for your principles no matter what. If trump gets reelected, you can bitch and cry, blame Bernie sanders or young voters all you want. At the end of the day it's your own fault (democrats) for running a losing strategy that also cost you the 2016 election.
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