View Poll Results: What will be the result of the Senate trial of trump?
Mitch doesn't allow a real trial, it's over in a short time 68 50.00%
There is a trial, but mostly attacking Biden and somehow Clinton 48 35.29%
There is a fair and long trial, with evidence, but Not Guilty 17 12.50%
There is a fair and long trial, with evidence, Trump is removed 3 2.21%
Voters: 136. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 12-15-2019, 05:41 PM
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The possible results of the Impeachment in the Senate.


I will give my guess as follows:

#1: 40%,
#2: 50%
#3: 9%
#4: 1%

I guess that means I will vote 2/B.
  #2  
Old 12-15-2019, 05:50 PM
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I will give my guess as follows:

#1: 40%,
#2: 50%
#3: 9%
#4: 1%

I guess that means I will vote 2/B.
I would pick pretty much the exact same percentages.

I think the Republicans will seek to minimize this hearing as much as they can get away with.

The only way I see Trump being removed from office is if enough evidence is presented at the hearing that public sentiment shifts away from him to the extent that the Republicans in the Senate decide they need to sacrifice Trump to save their own jobs. There'll be no principles involved; it'll just be a question of whether their self-interest tells them to vote for Trump or against him.
  #3  
Old 12-15-2019, 05:55 PM
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I would pick pretty much the exact same percentages.

I think the Republicans will seek to minimize this hearing as much as they can get away with.

The only way I see Trump being removed from office is if enough evidence is presented at the hearing that public sentiment shifts away from him to the extent that the Republicans in the Senate decide they need to sacrifice Trump to save their own jobs. There'll be no principles involved; it'll just be a question of whether their self-interest tells them to vote for Trump or against him.
Yes, which is why I gave that a chance. They may just decide to cut their losses and go with Pence. I might even give it 2%.
  #4  
Old 12-15-2019, 06:07 PM
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I still wish Pelosi would delay sending the Articles (and Managers) over to the Senate, until Mulvaney and McGahn and Pompeo testify before the House committees.

We'd have the benefit of Trump officially in the history books as Impeached---- without the unwholesome spectacle of Republican Senators semi-officially stamping "extort foreign leaders for help in your re-election campaign" as A-OK Presidential conduct.
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Old 12-15-2019, 07:33 PM
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Point 2

There is a trial, but the republicans make it all about the Ukraine hacking our democracy and Joe Biden and his son being corrupt criminals. Trump, who is an afterthought in this trial, is found not guilty.
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  #6  
Old 12-16-2019, 12:43 PM
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Point 2

There is a trial, but the republicans make it all about the Ukraine hacking our democracy and Joe Biden and his son being corrupt criminals. Trump, who is an afterthought in this trial, is found not guilty.
Yep, that's my best guess.
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Old 12-16-2019, 12:46 PM
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I'd also agree with the percentages except some of the 9% and a tiny bit of the 50% would be something in between - a trial that is a superset of fair, which calls many of the relevant and a lot of the irrelevant witnesses and thus is both an actual trial and a trial-by-proxy of Biden.
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Old 12-16-2019, 01:36 PM
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I'd say 90% chance of quickie dismissal, and 10% chance of prolonged grandstanding.

0% of anything resembling fair and adequate process.
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Old 12-16-2019, 01:39 PM
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Oddly we have seven votes for long & fair. But no one has posted that opinion. Hmm.
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Old 12-16-2019, 01:43 PM
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I also hope Pelosi holds on to the articles of impeachment after the vote until McConnell relents and has a real trial. Deny them the "exoneration" high and have some more hearings after the courts rule on the subpoenas for Bolton, Mulvaney, et al. Drag it out, death by a thousand cuts. It will drive him crazy.
  #11  
Old 12-16-2019, 01:50 PM
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I also hope Pelosi holds on to the articles of impeachment after the vote until McConnell relents and has a real trial. Deny them the "exoneration" high and have some more hearings after the courts rule on the subpoenas for Bolton, Mulvaney, et al. Drag it out, death by a thousand cuts. It will drive him crazy.
I'm confused by what you mean here. Once the House sends the impeachment articles to the Senate, it's in the Senate's hands. Pelosi and the House have no control over what McConnell does or does not do.
  #12  
Old 12-16-2019, 02:41 PM
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I voted #1, but it was basically a coin flip between numbers 1 and 2.
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  #13  
Old 12-16-2019, 02:45 PM
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I'm confused by what you mean here. Once the House sends the impeachment articles to the Senate, it's in the Senate's hands. Pelosi and the House have no control over what McConnell does or does not do.
1. Pelosi holds a vote on the Articles of Impeachment.
2. Trump is impeached by the House.
3. Pelosi refuses to send the Articles of Impeachment to the Senate.
4. Profit!
  #14  
Old 12-16-2019, 03:35 PM
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Why can't I just vote for short trial without the editorializing?
McConnell does little unilaterally; if enough of his party disagreed he would not be majority leader.
  #15  
Old 12-16-2019, 03:39 PM
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Short real trial. All Republicans vote to acquit.
  #16  
Old 12-16-2019, 03:59 PM
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I voted #1, I'm not seeing McConnell back off at all. That's just not his style.
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  #17  
Old 12-16-2019, 04:09 PM
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How about, at least one Republican senator gets confused and thinks it actually IS about Biden, and accidentally votes "guilty"?

Hey, a guy can dream.
  #18  
Old 12-16-2019, 04:14 PM
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I will give my guess as follows:

#1: 40%,
#2: 50%
#3: 9%
#4: 1%

I guess that means I will vote 2/B.
I pretty much agree with this. Except I think they'll obfuscate with crap about Ukrainian Crowdstrike servers, the Steele Dossier, and how everyone involved in the investigation was unfair and biased against Trump and probably a Democrat deep state meanie. McConnell and Graham will "relent" and agree to hold a "fair process", but it will really be an inverse show trial, designed to let the guilty off rather than punish the innocent. A third of Americans will be satisfied by this, a third will be disgusted, and a third won't bother to look up from the porn on their phones long enough to watch.

Disclaimer: My political predictions are always -- and I mean always -- wrong.
  #19  
Old 12-16-2019, 04:23 PM
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I say it's over within 2 weeks. 4 tops. Acquittal.

Last edited by Ashtura; 12-16-2019 at 04:23 PM.
  #20  
Old 12-16-2019, 06:40 PM
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Short real trial. All Republicans vote to acquit.
I think Susan Collins will vote guilty, but GOP guilty votes won't even get close to double digits & she might be the only one.
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Old 12-16-2019, 06:56 PM
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I think Susan Collins will vote guilty, but GOP guilty votes won't even get close to double digits & she might be the only one.
Collins will vote to acquit but she'll furrow her brows. Much furrowing. Maybe a sigh.
  #22  
Old 12-16-2019, 07:24 PM
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A third of Americans will be satisfied by this, a third will be disgusted, and a third won't bother to look up from the porn on their phones long enough to watch.
That's unacceptable. That's what a PC is for!
  #23  
Old 12-16-2019, 08:55 PM
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I voted number one because there seems to be new rules every week about protocol or process or whatever. Number two is more probable. It gives GOPers the chance to show their weird solidarity to their party.
  #24  
Old 12-16-2019, 09:33 PM
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Number two is more probable.
A whole heaping pile of Number Two is probable.
  #25  
Old 12-16-2019, 09:37 PM
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It's possible the Republicans will first try to call people like Pelosi, Hunter Biden, etc. to the witness stand. But if, after a few such testimonies, the GOP isn't getting the desired effect, it may then swiftly cut proceedings short and go to vote time.
  #26  
Old 12-16-2019, 10:25 PM
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Now ten posters voted for #3, none of whom have posted comments. Odd.
  #27  
Old 12-16-2019, 10:26 PM
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dbl

Last edited by DrDeth; 12-16-2019 at 10:27 PM.
  #28  
Old 12-16-2019, 10:55 PM
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Now ten posters voted for #3, none of whom have posted comments. Odd.
It's common in threads (especially IMHO) for polls to turn out this way. People will vote for some option but not want to support it publicly because they think they might get dogpiled. I think we've even had poll threads where some poll option was the majority, and yet just about no one would voice their support for that option out loud.
  #29  
Old 12-17-2019, 02:08 AM
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The Republicans have already said out loud that they are not impartial, that there will be no trial. They have pre-determined the outcome, and have blatantly said that they are not planning to have any kind of process.

They've said this. Why would anybody expect different from them?

Essentially, they have said "we are in the majority, and we have determined that Trump is a King. Fuck you."
  #30  
Old 12-17-2019, 02:41 AM
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I think Susan Collins will vote guilty, but GOP guilty votes won't even get close to double digits & she might be the only one.
I don't see her voting guilty. The people who would hate her for voting not guilty already hate her for Kavanaugh, and she doesn't need to add to that by pissing off the MAGA crowd.

She also has a card that most Republican senators don't, which is that she voted to acquit Bill Clinton on both counts in 1999. So she can furrow her brow and talk about how terrible it is that there have been two improper partisan impeachments during her tenure.

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 12-17-2019 at 02:41 AM.
  #31  
Old 12-17-2019, 07:14 PM
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The Republicans have already said out loud that they are not impartial, that there will be no trial. They have pre-determined the outcome, and have blatantly said that they are not planning to have any kind of process.

They've said this. Why would anybody expect different from them?

Essentially, they have said "we are in the majority, and we have determined that Trump is a King. Fuck you."
That's right. And this is leading more public figures to say 'vote on Impeachment and then delay sending the Articles to the Senate until McConnell commits to a fair (and real) trial':

Quote:
BREAKING (MSNBC): U.S. Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) Floats Idea of House Not Sending Articles of Impeachment to Senate Unless GOP Agrees to Actual Trial*

* = I increasingly concur with this sentiment.

1/ Imagine how *angry* Trump would be if he never got his "show-trial exoneration" because he refused to let his own officials testify under circumstances in which he's *sworn* that no one could possibly have damning evidence against him*. OK, sorry then, no Senate trial for you.

2/ As I said earlier today: you don't negotiate over *how many punches in the face you're going to take*; you *exit the ring*. If the Senate refuses to have a trial, there's no one and nothing for House Democrats to hand over the articles of impeachment to. It's that simple, now.

3/ Investigations are still ongoing. Court proceedings are still ongoing. Moderate GOP senators have more or less made clear that they don't want a trial. OK then, you don't get the articles. The investigations and court proceedings will continue. It's a very reasonable position.
...[two more points]
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212791318

I'm not sure Abramson is right about Van Hollen--or at least if he did say that on MSNBC today, it's not yet visible online. Here's Laurence Tribe, though:

Quote:
Harvard Law professor Laurence Tribe recently tweeted that if McConnell “rejects these reasonable ground rules & insists on a non-trial, the House should consider treating that as a breach of the Senate’s oath & withholding the Articles until the Senate reconsiders.” He later clarified in a follow-up tweet that “by ‘withholding’ the Articles I don’t mean not voting for them — I mean voting for them but holding off on transmitting them to the Senate.”

Tribe elaborated on this idea further in an email to Salon, comparing this process to a corrupt trial in criminal court...

Tribe concluded that Pelosi should let that sword keep hanging there until McConnell and Schumer can reach agreement “on how to conduct the closest possible approximation to a fair trial under the politically charged circumstances.”

Would such a maneuver be legal and constitutional? Tribe admitted there is no precedent, but argued it would be “fully consistent with the text, structure, history, and purposes of the Impeachment Power as outlined in the Constitution.”

....Allan Lichtman, a political history professor at American University, told Salon that Tribe’s suggestion makes political as well as legal sense.

“On a matter as grave as removing a president, the Senate must hold a full trial with both sides able to call live witnesses and present relevant documents. If closed-minded Republicans in the Senate refuse to do so, the House’s only recourse is to withhold the articles of impeachment until the Senate agrees to a real trial,” Lichtman explained. ...
https://www.salon.com/2019/12/16/mit...-give-him-one/

The Salon article is lengthy and worth a read.
  #32  
Old 12-17-2019, 08:06 PM
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Now ten posters voted for #3, none of whom have posted comments. Odd.
Don't look at me. I join several others who applaud you for your accurate estimates in #1.
  #33  
Old 12-17-2019, 09:11 PM
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Since we know the acquittal is certain, the more interesting question is will any Republican vote to convict. Incidentally, I predict that Susan Collins's reelection chances are very low, no matter how she votes. If she votes to convict, she will be primaried. If sho votes to acquit, she will lose the general election. I voted for #2 incidentally.
  #34  
Old 12-17-2019, 10:34 PM
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I voted #1, but it was basically a coin flip between numbers 1 and 2.
This with the addendum that I'm nearly always wrong about things like this, so I'm actually hoping for 3 or 4.
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Old 12-17-2019, 11:04 PM
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Don't look at me. I join several others who applaud you for your accurate estimates in #1.
Thank you.
  #36  
Old 12-18-2019, 02:38 AM
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I’m boycotting the poll on account of my choice isn’t presented. Mitch allows a long trial, AND it focuses inappropriately on Biden and Clinton, AND it will be long, AND it will end in acquittal, AND there will be nothing real OR fair about it.

Last edited by kaylasdad99; 12-18-2019 at 02:39 AM.
  #37  
Old 12-18-2019, 02:44 AM
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How about, at least one Republican senator gets confused and thinks it actually IS about Biden, and accidentally votes "guilty"?

Hey, a guy can dream.
As long as you’re dreaming, why not dream for 50 of them to do that?







IT COULD HAPPEN!
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Old 12-18-2019, 03:00 AM
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Scenario 2.5. Senate drags out/delays trial until SCOTUS rules on challenged subpoenas. If SCOTUS votes to quash those subpoenas then Trump takes a victory lap and Senate votes to table the articles of impeachment and takes no final vote. McConnell makes speech about how Senate will not consider holding a trial for conduct the SCOTUS declared was lawful.

If SCOTUS upholds subpoenas then Senate meekly votes to acquit on party line vote.

Last edited by Iggy; 12-18-2019 at 03:01 AM.
  #39  
Old 12-18-2019, 02:05 PM
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I’m boycotting the poll on account of my choice isn’t presented. Mitch allows a long trial, AND it focuses inappropriately on Biden and Clinton, AND it will be long, AND it will end in acquittal, AND there will be nothing real OR fair about it.
That is choice 2.
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Old 12-18-2019, 02:20 PM
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My hope is that the House refuses to send the articles of impeachment to the Senate unless Moscow Mitch agrees to an honest trial.
  #41  
Old 12-18-2019, 02:28 PM
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Then what prevents Mitch and the Senate from just carrying on with business as usual and pretending nothing is happening until the House does send the articles over?

And if Mitch agrees to a fair trial, but then the articles are sent over, and he retracts his agreement, what will Pelosi and Co. do about it?
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Old 12-18-2019, 02:51 PM
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True, a guy who has said he has no intention of being impartial while preparing to take an oath next month to be an impartial juror has no integrity worth a bucket of spit. I just want to see him declare publicly to hold a fair trial then if he goes back on the word he'll look like the ass that he is.
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Old 12-18-2019, 03:03 PM
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I’m boycotting the poll on account of my choice isn’t presented. Mitch allows a long trial, AND it focuses inappropriately on Biden and Clinton, AND it will be long, AND it will end in acquittal, AND there will be nothing real OR fair about it.
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That is choice 2.
Well, I suppose you know your own intentions. Put me down for #2 then.
  #44  
Old 12-18-2019, 03:10 PM
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I just want to see him declare publicly to hold a fair trial then if he goes back on the word he'll look like the ass that he is.
But nothing prevents him from claiming it was a fair trial even if it wasn't, and his opponents from claiming that it was an unfair trial even if it was.

It's like telling two kids, "You can fight however you want, as long as it's fair."
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Old 12-18-2019, 04:34 PM
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I voted for #3, but intended to vote for #2. I wish there was some way to correct errors on these polls .
  #46  
Old 12-18-2019, 05:29 PM
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My hope is that the House refuses to send the articles of impeachment to the Senate unless Moscow Mitch agrees to an honest trial.
This might be the best option, but the downside is that McConnell might find ways to sit on the issue until an opportune time. If he does that, they have the option of throwing their hands up, saying "We tried to do this the right way, but it's clear McConnell is abusing his power," and then instead issue a House censure and be done with it.

Yes, it's frustrating that Trump is getting away with high crimes, but as I've said repeatedly, the best way to defeat him is at the ballot box, which may or may not be possible. But from the looks of things, not just now but really all along, impeachment has always been a long shot because Senate Republicans have known that there isn't enough public support for it. And that's because there's not enough public loathing for Trump.

It's up to American voters to preserve their political system. No amount of testimony from Ivy League lawyers is going to change that.
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Old 12-18-2019, 06:07 PM
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Then what prevents Mitch and the Senate from just carrying on with business as usual and pretending nothing is happening until the House does send the articles over?

..
Actually, that could be the best result. That way trump doesnt get a acquital.
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Old 12-18-2019, 06:11 PM
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I voted for #3, but intended to vote for #2. I wish there was some way to correct errors on these polls .

Well, now we know, at least, thanks.
  #49  
Old 12-18-2019, 06:36 PM
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Option not in the poll, Trump has a major coronary event. I believe this a real possibility.
  #50  
Old 12-18-2019, 07:50 PM
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How about, at least one Republican senator gets confused and thinks it actually IS about Biden, and accidentally votes "guilty"?

Hey, a guy can dream.
Okay, here's my dream.

It's been suggested that some Repub senators might have the cojones to vote to convict, if only they could be confident that a bunch of other Repub senators will too, so they won't be standing alone. And it's fairly well understood, I think, that there are at least 20 Repub senators who hate Trump's fucking guts, but none of whom will have the balls or the integrity to vote to convict.

So here's my dream: Those 20-or-more Repub senators who hate Trump's fucking guts will conspire in secret, privately swearing a blood oath to one another that "I'll vote to convict if all of you do too". I dream that they're already planning this, very hush-hush among themselves, even as the House prepares to impeach.

And when the vote finally happens, and not until then, when the first Repub Senator votes "Guilty!", an audible gasp arises from all in attendance! And a second Repub senator votes "Guilty!" And a third! And thick and fast they came at last, "Guilty!", "Guilty!", "Guilty!" And when at last the vote is through, The Donald will stand as the First President Ever Impeached and Convicted and Removed From Office! There may be others later, but The Donald will forever be the FIRST!

I have even better dreams than Chronos! :smug:
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