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Old 12-19-2019, 11:12 AM
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This is the thought that keeps me up at night.... Am I wrong?


So Trump has been impeached. We think we know what will happen in the Senate, but perhaps the political calculus will change at some point. Pelosi is holding the impeachment for at least a little while.

Meanwhile, Trump is not terribly popular. If the election were held tomorrow, he may very well lose. He is extremely popular with the people he has always been popular with, but has very little enthusiasm outside of that.

The Russians like their boy. If they can keep him in office, so much the better. So what is a Russian to do?

9/11

I believe that our current political climate is ripe for a Reichstag Fire type of event. We and the Russians saw how 9/11/2001 led to a popular coalescing of support behind a president with lukewarm support. It propelled that president to a second term and it was used to justify a world of sins for decades, up to and including today. This singular event still looms large in the public mind.

Trump has rendered parts of the national security apparatus ineffective through his erratic behavior and appointing people who are fundamentally incompetent to the job. He has also managed to lower public confidence in their institutions to keep them safe.

I feel all of this is coming together into a massive and highly dramatic strike that could exceed the impact of the 9/11 attacks. What if we had a literal Reichstag Fire and the capitol itself were burned? What if a nuke -- dirty or otherwise -- were set off on the National Mall, Times Square, The Chicago Loop?

If a bunch of plucky guys who live in caves in Afghanistan can pull off a spectacular attack like 9/11, what is to stop an actual nation-state from pulling off something even more spectacular?
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Old 12-19-2019, 11:26 AM
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I think Putin is just fine with the US tearing itself apart from the inside and wouldn't benefit at all from a unified US suddenly turning its attention to a common enemy. There are pictures of Republicans wearing shirts that say they would rather be Russian than Democrat.

I think the bigger fear is what Trump might do if he feels he is at serious risk of losing the election next November. As you indicated, a war president isn't likely to be voted out. I don't think that history lesson is lost on those in power.
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Old 12-19-2019, 11:29 AM
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All I can say is I don't think a 9/11 style attack would help Trump win. It would make him look weak and like a failure to the independent/middle votes. Question is, do any of the Democratic candidates inspire us as a person that will increase the safety of the US?

I think this would help the more centrist Dems like Biden, Bloomberg or Buttigieg. It would probably make things harder for Warren or Sanders. (I'm ignoring the rest of the field that has been in it for months and are polling below 5%)
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Old 12-19-2019, 11:29 AM
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I can't imagine any scenario in which Putin would think it's a good idea to have his fingerprints on a major attack on US soil, even indirectly supporting domestic shit disturbers. It would be provoking armed conflict with a major nuclear power. There's just no way.
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Old 12-19-2019, 11:32 AM
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Russians don't care about Trump, they care about hurting America. Unifying the country would be the complete opposite of what they hope to accomplish.
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Old 12-19-2019, 11:44 AM
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A major war might get Trump reelected, not necessarily because anyone likes him more, but because many voters might think "Don't change horses in the middle of a stream." The FDR-during-WWII reelection strategy.

A crime spree committed by illegal immigrants (perhaps false-flagging "illegal immigrants", that is,) might boost Trump, just like how the migrant caravan last year might have helped the GOP a bit.
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Old 12-19-2019, 11:56 AM
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A major war might get Trump reelected, not necessarily because anyone likes him more, but because many voters might think "Don't change horses in the middle of a stream." The FDR-during-WWII reelection strategy.

A crime spree committed by illegal immigrants (perhaps false-flagging "illegal immigrants", that is,) might boost Trump, just like how the migrant caravan last year might have helped the GOP a bit.
Trump is effectively a draft dodger with no real military support. A war won't help him much against a moderate Dem. Bush carried a more military air and had a Hawk leader for his VP puppetmaster. FDR was a very different time and a very different war.

The crime spree by illegal immigrants would have to be real and not just a Fox News pushing an agenda, but if for some reason an illegal immigrant crime spree really materialized, that would end up helping Trump.
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Old 12-19-2019, 12:03 PM
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Trump is effectively a draft dodger with no real military support. A war won't help him much against a moderate Dem.
I think there can be major support for Trump in a war as long as it is perceived that the war wasn't his fault or his causing. If North Korea suddenly launched an all-out invasion of South Korea in October 2020, and also launched some WMD-tipped missiles towards Japan at that same time, without Trump having done anything to poke Kim, I think you'd see both sides of the political aisle unite, temporarily, around a Trump-led war effort against Kim.
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Old 12-19-2019, 12:07 PM
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I think there can be major support for Trump in a war as long as it is perceived that the war wasn't his fault or his causing. If North Korea suddenly launched an all-out invasion of South Korea in October 2020, and also launched some WMD-tipped missiles towards Japan at that same time, without Trump having done anything to poke Kim, I think you'd see both sides of the political aisle unite, temporarily, around a Trump-led war effort against Kim.
I think it would be perceived as Trump being too friendly with Kim, gave Kim the idea he could get away with it. I think you need another example.
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Old 12-19-2019, 01:25 PM
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I think there can be major support for Trump in a war as long as it is perceived that the war wasn't his fault or his causing. If North Korea suddenly launched an all-out invasion of South Korea in October 2020, and also launched some WMD-tipped missiles towards Japan at that same time, without Trump having done anything to poke Kim, I think you'd see both sides of the political aisle unite, temporarily, around a Trump-led war effort against Kim.
I agree with What Exit. If Trump wants to be saved by a war, it can't involve North Korea (or Syria). There would be too many people saying he caused the war by his bungled foreign policy.

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan might do it.

The other scenario would be a major domestic incident. I've said before that I think the Trump administration is trying to cause riots in its detention centers in order to retroactively justify locking people up in those detention centers. Maybe somebody in the Trump administration is planning on pushing those riots to occur some time around next September.
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Old 12-19-2019, 01:29 PM
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I don't think Trump, or anyone in his administration, believe that they need to resort to something like this. You're overestimating the extent to which they are desperate. I don't think desperation is an emotion Republicans are feeling right now.
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Old 12-19-2019, 01:44 PM
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I don't think Trump, or anyone in his administration, believe that they need to resort to something like this. You're overestimating the extent to which they are desperate. I don't think desperation is an emotion Republicans are feeling right now.
I agree. All the Senate Republicans will vote to acquit. Video of Trump committing murder would not cause them to convict.
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Old 12-19-2019, 01:58 PM
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So Trump has been impeached. We think we know what will happen in the Senate, but perhaps the political calculus will change at some point. Pelosi is holding the impeachment for at least a little while.

Meanwhile, Trump is not terribly popular. If the election were held tomorrow, he may very well lose. He is extremely popular with the people he has always been popular with, but has very little enthusiasm outside of that.

The Russians like their boy. If they can keep him in office, so much the better. So what is a Russian to do?

9/11

I believe that our current political climate is ripe for a Reichstag Fire type of event. We and the Russians saw how 9/11/2001 led to a popular coalescing of support behind a president with lukewarm support. It propelled that president to a second term and it was used to justify a world of sins for decades, up to and including today. This singular event still looms large in the public mind.

Trump has rendered parts of the national security apparatus ineffective through his erratic behavior and appointing people who are fundamentally incompetent to the job. He has also managed to lower public confidence in their institutions to keep them safe.

I feel all of this is coming together into a massive and highly dramatic strike that could exceed the impact of the 9/11 attacks. What if we had a literal Reichstag Fire and the capitol itself were burned? What if a nuke -- dirty or otherwise -- were set off on the National Mall, Times Square, The Chicago Loop?

If a bunch of plucky guys who live in caves in Afghanistan can pull off a spectacular attack like 9/11, what is to stop an actual nation-state from pulling off something even more spectacular?
Putin doesn't give a shit who wins as long as there is a deep division in America and we leave him alone to try and reconstitute the USSR.
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Old 12-19-2019, 02:17 PM
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I don't think Trump, or anyone in his administration, believe that they need to resort to something like this. You're overestimating the extent to which they are desperate. I don't think desperation is an emotion Republicans are feeling right now.
Even in the Trump administration there has to be some awareness that things are not going well. For all his blustering about voter fraud, Trump must be aware he didn't win the popular vote in 2016. And the four years since then haven't been a triumph that has won him new support. Trump has to know that under normal circumstances he would be a one term President.

So I'm sure Trump thinks he has a trick up his sleeve that will fool the voters a second time. And it wouldn't surprise me if he was thinking about starting a war because people rarely change Presidents during a war.
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Old 12-19-2019, 02:21 PM
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Do you think Trump is not aware that winning the popular vote doesn't matter?

Yeah, there hasn't been a "triumph" in your opinion. (To a lot of voters, regrettably, watching the left melt down over Trump's presidency is a triumph enough.) But there also hasn't been a calamity.
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Old 12-19-2019, 03:07 PM
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I don't think Trump needs to start a war. In Dec 2011, Obama's approval rating was 42% (Trump's is 45%). Obama didn't need to start any wars to get re-elected in 2012. Clinton is another example - maybe a better one, because he also didn't win the popular vote. His approval ratings went up when he was impeached. If he had been allowed to run in 2000, he probably would have won.

The economy is roaring along, and Trump is the incumbent. It's by no means a lock, but his chances of re-election are far from dismal.

Regards,
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Old 12-19-2019, 03:24 PM
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I don't think Trump needs to start a war. In Dec 2011, Obama's approval rating was 42% (Trump's is 45%). Obama didn't need to start any wars to get re-elected in 2012. Clinton is another example - maybe a better one, because he also didn't win the popular vote. His approval ratings went up when he was impeached. If he had been allowed to run in 2000, he probably would have won.

The economy is roaring along, and Trump is the incumbent. It's by no means a lock, but his chances of re-election are far from dismal.

Regards,
Shodan
Clinton DID win the popular vote, just not a majority of it.

But to the larger question. Yes, this thought has occurred to me as well. Perhaps some massive domestic terror incident that could be tied to Antifa types.

Last edited by E-DUB; 12-19-2019 at 03:27 PM.
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Old 12-19-2019, 03:30 PM
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I don't think Trump needs to start a war. In Dec 2011, Obama's approval rating was 42% (Trump's is 45%). Obama didn't need to start any wars to get re-elected in 2012. Clinton is another example - maybe a better one, because he also didn't win the popular vote. His approval ratings went up when he was impeached. If he had been allowed to run in 2000, he probably would have won.

The economy is roaring along, and Trump is the incumbent. It's by no means a lock, but his chances of re-election are far from dismal.

Regards,
Shodan
In which election did Clinton not win the popular vote?
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Old 12-19-2019, 03:41 PM
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Missed the edit window on this but speaking to the larger question I've long said that I'd expect some type of domestic terror incident tied (by the trump DOJ at least) to the likes of Antifa. It doesn't even have to be Russia. Some of trump's supporters are nuts enough to do something like this, QED.
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Old 12-19-2019, 03:43 PM
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In which election did Clinton not win the popular vote?
In 1992 he got less than 50% of the vote, but he did have the highest percentage.
Clinton had 43.0%, Bush had 37.4% and Perot pulled 18.9%. However, Clinton also got 370 electoral votes to Bush's 168 and only 18 states. It was not in any way a close election, unlike Trump's.
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Old 12-19-2019, 03:56 PM
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In 1992 he got less than 50% of the vote, but he did have the highest percentage.
Clinton had 43.0%, Bush had 37.4% and Perot pulled 18.9%. However, Clinton also got 370 electoral votes to Bush's 168 and only 18 states. It was not in any way a close election, unlike Trump's.
Gotcha. It depends on what the definition of "win" is.

I saw E-DUB's message after I posted, but thanks for clarifying.
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Old 12-20-2019, 03:18 PM
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I don't think Trump needs to start a war. In Dec 2011, Obama's approval rating was 42% (Trump's is 45%). Obama didn't need to start any wars to get re-elected in 2012. Clinton is another example - maybe a better one, because he also didn't win the popular vote. His approval ratings went up when he was impeached. If he had been allowed to run in 2000, he probably would have won.

The economy is roaring along, and Trump is the incumbent. It's by no means a lock, but his chances of re-election are far from dismal.

Regards,
Shodan
This is cherry picking. At this point in his administration, Obama was at the Nadir of his approval, but before an after this time he went up higher, so that he was above water (net +8) by the time the election rolled around. For Trump, other than a 30 day honeymoon period has basically been flat. Peoples minds are made up and there is nothing anyone can do to change them. Trumps approval will be somewhere in the 40-45 range when the election comes around with a net approval of minus 10-15. The only question will be whether even this level of low approval is enough to win when you take into account,

1) The structural advantage of the electoral college
2) The likely low approval ratings of the Democratic candidate after the Republican/Russian mud machine is through with him/her
3) The nationwide dirty tricks playbook to disenfranchise Democratic voters.
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Old 12-20-2019, 03:59 PM
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I would not at all put it beyond Trump to engineer some sort of Reichstag Fire in some form.
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Old 12-20-2019, 05:21 PM
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The difference is that the USA isn’t like post WWI Germany. We’re not looking for scapegoats. Sure, there’s old people watching Fox News that’ll blame immigrants or Muslims for everything but Trump has their vote.

I do find it interesting you mentioned the Chicago loop. During all the screaming from the ‘progressives’ about Buttigieg’s NDA, I took a second look at the one I had to sign when my Loop job was eliminated a couple months ago. 90% of it was security stuff since I worked next to the Sears Tower. As a rare person with a 24 hour pass, I knew all the back entrances and elevator codes that might be useful for someone up to no good.
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Old 12-20-2019, 06:58 PM
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1) The structural advantage of the electoral college
2) The likely low approval ratings of the Democratic candidate after the Republican/Russian mud machine is through with him/her
3) The nationwide dirty tricks playbook to disenfranchise Democratic voters.
It depends on third party runs, too. There's a pretty decent chance Tulsi Gabbard runs a Russia-backed campaign to peel votes off the Democratic candidate.
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Old 12-20-2019, 07:25 PM
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All I can say is I don't think a 9/11 style attack would help Trump win. It would make him look weak and like a failure to the independent/middle votes. Question is, do any of the Democratic candidates inspire us as a person that will increase the safety of the US?

I think this would help the more centrist Dems like Biden, Bloomberg or Buttigieg. It would probably make things harder for Warren or Sanders. (I'm ignoring the rest of the field that has been in it for months and are polling below 5%)
Look at how he treated Puerto Rico.
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Old 12-20-2019, 08:38 PM
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Look at how he treated Puerto Rico.
Sorry, I don't follow. I think we're talking about Hurricane Maria? That was a natural disaster that he fumbled, it isn't a terrorist strike.

Letting down the US citizens of PR doesn't touch his base or those ignorant and not knowing PR residents are US citizens. It barely moved his support at all and in no lasting way. I can't figure out how that equates to a terrorist strike.

I don't believe a terrorist strike will favor him.
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Old 12-20-2019, 09:48 PM
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He only knows what his gun toting red neck supporters like. G-d knows what he will do if the Senate votes him out, or he is not re-elected.
I can imagine refusing to leave the White House, or trashing it and moving into a Trump Hotel or his joint in Florida.
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Old 12-21-2019, 12:34 AM
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Putin doesn't give a shit who wins as long as there is a deep division in America and we leave him alone to try and reconstitute the USSR.
Indeed. A close election, ideally a heavily disputed one, serves this end better than trying to false-flag Trump to a clear victory. A good messy public display of Trump being dragged from the White House on January 20, 2021 would fit this nicely. I suppose encouraging some white nationalist groups to violence through the use of internet trolling is about as involved as Putin/Russia has to get.

And if Trump (barely) wins, encourage his followers to gloat about it every chance they get and seize the opportunity to backlash everything in sight in the name of "taking back" America. Trump's already a chaotic personality; Putin can just nudge America to follow suit, abandon/alienate NATO, and then proceed to rebuild the Russian empire.
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Last edited by Bryan Ekers; 12-21-2019 at 12:34 AM.
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Old 12-21-2019, 01:11 AM
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Do you think Trump is not aware that winning the popular vote doesn't matter?

Yeah, there hasn't been a "triumph" in your opinion. (To a lot of voters, regrettably, watching the left melt down over Trump's presidency is a triumph enough.) But there also hasn't been a calamity.
I am aware that there are people who believe that Trump is the greatest President ever. But those people do not constitute a majority.

If Trump wants to get re-elected, he needs to attract voters from outside his base. And I don't feel he is doing that. If anything, he has probably lost voters who he had in 2016. Even as a Republican, Trump needs to be at least a close second to be declared the winner.

And considering Trump is currently being impeached, I have to ask how bad you think things need to be to qualify as a calamity? Even if he's not convicted, it's hardly a sign that things are going well.
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Old 12-21-2019, 01:48 AM
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I am aware that there are people who believe that Trump is the greatest President ever. But those people do not constitute a majority.
They don't constitute a majority of the electorate at large but they DO constitute a majority of votes in the Electoral College. And in our current system, that is ALL that matters. Surely you know Trump could actually get fewer votes than in 2016 but still win because of how the EC skews things?

Adding 5 million angry progressive voters in each of NY, CA and IL and Trump will still get elected as long as he manages to carry the same states in 2020. And he won most of those states by such huge margins he could have less turnout and still win in most of them.

The fact he is likely to pick up a couple states like MN and NH that were close but went to HRC doesn't inspire much confidence that he will lose.
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Old 12-21-2019, 03:35 AM
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Indeed. A close election, ideally a heavily disputed one, serves this end better than trying to false-flag Trump to a clear victory. A good messy public display of Trump being dragged from the White House on January 20, 2021 would fit this nicely. I suppose encouraging some white nationalist groups to violence through the use of internet trolling is about as involved as Putin/Russia has to get.

And if Trump (barely) wins, encourage his followers to gloat about it every chance they get and seize the opportunity to backlash everything in sight in the name of "taking back" America. Trump's already a chaotic personality; Putin can just nudge America to follow suit, abandon/alienate NATO, and then proceed to rebuild the Russian empire.
No need to mince words. He’s already a Chaotic Evil personality...
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Old 12-21-2019, 04:20 AM
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You know who the real victims here are? The terrorists. All they want to do is strike a violent blow in service to their cause but now no matter what they do or when they do it, everyone will assume they're part of some kind of conspiracy with the credit given to someone else entirely. It's getting to the point of them having to ask if they should even bother.
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Old 12-21-2019, 10:03 AM
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Surprised nobody has mentioned the Wag the Dog idea where Trump creates a war to distract people. I can see him invading Iran to boost his re-election campaign.
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Old 12-21-2019, 10:41 AM
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You know who the real victims here are? The terrorists. All they want to do is strike a violent blow in service to their cause but now no matter what they do or when they do it, everyone will assume they're part of some kind of conspiracy with the credit given to someone else entirely. It's getting to the point of them having to ask if they should even bother.
The Onion beat you to that one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_OIXfkXEj0
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Old 12-21-2019, 01:15 PM
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Surprised nobody has mentioned the Wag the Dog idea where Trump creates a war to distract people. I can see him invading Iran to boost his re-election campaign.
Please explain how, after Iraq and Afghanistan, an invasion of Iran would even remotely boost Trump's popularity.
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Old 12-21-2019, 01:50 PM
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Please explain how, after Iraq and Afghanistan, an invasion of Iran would even remotely boost Trump's popularity.
well it is not logical but I think it will boost him. Rally round the flag always worked in the past. He may not even use many ground troops so it would not be full scale war, just bombs and missiles.
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Old 12-21-2019, 02:14 PM
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Surprised nobody has mentioned the Wag the Dog idea where Trump creates a war to distract people. I can see him invading Iran to boost his re-election campaign.
A la Cheney, Mike Pence could warn us against changing horses in mid stream.
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Old 12-21-2019, 02:20 PM
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Please explain how, after Iraq and Afghanistan, an invasion of Iran would even remotely boost Trump's popularity.
There are quite a few testosterone poisoned guys in my area who would get off on the USA being in a "real, shooting war".
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Old 12-21-2019, 02:28 PM
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"Quite a few" isn't enough to make this politically feasible. The military is sick of deployments. Their families are sick of deployments. Trump very successfully spun himself as the anti-war candidate and it worked; the right wing is now, in the main, non-interventionist and isolationist. The warmongers like John Bolton proved incompatible with his administration.
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Old 12-21-2019, 02:36 PM
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I think OP is correct that Kremlin smarties will be thinking of possible attacks that would work in Trump's interest and in Putin's interest. But it would be a high priority to keep their involvement clandestine. They want to incite another actor, not act overtly themselves. (What do we know about firings and resignations at NSA, CIA, FBI? The Putin-Trump team is trying to degrade U.S. intelligence efforts.)

An attack by Iran in the Gulf or against Israel would help Putin and Trump, I think. (I'm already suspicious of Iran's attacks on ships.) Somehow co-opting U.S. immigrants or would-be immigrants to go rogue with guns would be another way. Doubtless some of you can think of better ploys. In any case, Russia and the GOP would need to ensure no "fingerprints" are left behind.
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Old 12-21-2019, 03:08 PM
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There are quite a few testosterone poisoned guys in my area who would get off on the USA being in a "real, shooting war".
Which would be far more than offset by the number of swing/light-red voters who would be repelled by such a war.
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Old 12-21-2019, 03:22 PM
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An attack by Iran in the Gulf or against Israel would help Putin and Trump, I think. (I'm already suspicious of Iran's attacks on ships.) Somehow co-opting U.S. immigrants or would-be immigrants to go rogue with guns would be another way. Doubtless some of you can think of better ploys. In any case, Russia and the GOP would need to ensure no "fingerprints" are left behind.
People have been announcing an imminent conflict with Iran since I was listening to Everclear on my Discman. I'm no geopolitical expert but my layman's intuition tells me that Iran does not want conflict and has never wanted conflict, against the US, Israel, or anyone else. For all we've been hearing about the sinister boogeyman of Iran, nothing has materialized, even as the rest of that region is embroiled in war. I remember people insisting that George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were going to engineer a conflict with Iran during their second term. I remember likewise people insisting that Israel was going to engineer a conflict with Iran and deliberately draw America into it.

Haven't people realized now that full scale wars between nation states under the color of official flags are just not a thing anymore?
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Old 12-21-2019, 03:31 PM
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Of course, now I'm curious what would happen, just hypothetically, if Iran conducted a nuclear test in the next ten months. Does Trump get to say "I told you that Iran deal was the worst deal in history" and get believed by some, while others claim his pulling out of the deal is to blame?
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  #45  
Old 12-21-2019, 03:36 PM
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Of course, now I'm curious what would happen, just hypothetically, if Iran conducted a nuclear test in the next ten months. Does Trump get to say "I told you that Iran deal was the worst deal in history" and get believed by some, while others claim his pulling out of the deal is to blame?
My Bolding

Of course he does get to say that and of course as we no longer live in a shared reality, many Trumpites will blame Obama and most Dem leaning will blame Trump.
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Old 12-21-2019, 05:57 PM
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"Quite a few" isn't enough to make this politically feasible. The military is sick of deployments. Their families are sick of deployments. Trump very successfully spun himself as the anti-war candidate and it worked; the right wing is now, in the main, non-interventionist and isolationist. The warmongers like John Bolton proved incompatible with his administration.
That's all true. But I believe these problems could be solved if:
  • a major attack on US soil can be successfully attributed to a foreign nation's government;
  • that government in is the USA's backyard (so to speak), and
  • that government possesses a natural resource that the US government could, with some veneer of legitimacy, confiscate.

My guess is that in Vlad's meetings with his puppet, he has been emphasizing how much Oil there is in Venezuela, waiting to be seized. Those Venezuelans are a basket case! Americans will be doing them a favor by coming in and putting the whole country on a paying basis!

Trump would love that idea. He's been champing at the bit to seize someone's oil since before he got elected. This would be his chance.

For Putin, the appeal is obvious: First, the US would be doing what Russia has been getting sanctioned for: invading a neighbor. How can the US keep any sanctions at all on Russia if it is doing exactly what it criticized Russia for doing???

Second, Trump would naturally withdraw all US forces from Europe in order to carry out the takeover of Venezuela. And if all US forces are being withdrawn from Europe, then there's no point in the USA staying part of NATO!

Of course this plan requires that "Venezuelans," "on the instructions of their government," carry out an act of terrorism that will really get Americans' attention. How about a bombing that kills someone in Trump's family? Someone who's aged out of his interest range, perhaps? No one would suspect Trump of being part of a plot against someone who lives in the White House!

Or perhaps it could be an act of terrorism taking place at a major sporting event. That would make Americans boiling mad and ready to enlist to fight that awful terrorist nation!

In any case, Trump would need someone trustworthy to set it all up:

Quote:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Erik Prince, the controversial private security executive and prominent supporter of U.S. President Donald Trump, made a secret visit to Venezuela last month ...The visit, described by one source as “outreach” by Prince to Maduro’s government, came just eight months after the founder of the private security firm Blackwater floated a plan to deploy a private army to help the Venezuelan opposition topple Maduro.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-v...-idUSKBN1YH2BY


All just speculation, of course. But I do believe Putin would see advantages in pushing Trump to get involved in a war in Venezuela---and of course if it's timed right, there would be the chance to use that 'don't change horses in midstream' argument for re-electing Trump.
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Old 12-21-2019, 06:21 PM
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I think Trump is way too afraid of bungling a war, to try to get involved in one. He has enough of a sense of self-preservation to know that it's too risky for him to attempt when the consequences of it backfiring are so severe. I just do not see any of these Tom Clancy plots coming to fruition, and it's unsettling to me that people are so paranoid about it.
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Old 12-21-2019, 06:25 PM
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I think Trump is way too afraid of bungling a war, to try to get involved in one. He has enough of a sense of self-preservation to know that it's too risky for him to attempt when the consequences of it backfiring are so severe. I just do not see any of these Tom Clancy plots coming to fruition, and it's unsettling to me that people are so paranoid about it.
His "sense of self-preservation" didn't prevent him from trying to strongarm the president of another country to influence the upcoming election. The question to ask in evaluating trump's actions isn't "Are you paranoid?", it's "Are you paranoid enougn?"
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Old 12-21-2019, 06:26 PM
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I think Trump is way too afraid of bungling a war, to try to get involved in one. He has enough of a sense of self-preservation to know that it's too risky for him to attempt when the consequences of it backfiring are so severe. I just do not see any of these Tom Clancy plots coming to fruition, and it's unsettling to me that people are so paranoid about it.
We shall see.

(Doesn't take a Tom Clancy plot, after all. It just takes, say, Erik Prince becoming aware during one of his visits to Venezuela that some particular Venezuelan official will be present in the United States during some particular time period. That's really all Prince would need in order to set up a nice frame. Pretty simple, really.)
  #50  
Old 12-21-2019, 06:32 PM
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They don't constitute a majority of the electorate at large but they DO constitute a majority of votes in the Electoral College. And in our current system, that is ALL that matters. Surely you know Trump could actually get fewer votes than in 2016 but still win because of how the EC skews things?

Adding 5 million angry progressive voters in each of NY, CA and IL and Trump will still get elected as long as he manages to carry the same states in 2020. And he won most of those states by such huge margins he could have less turnout and still win in most of them.

The fact he is likely to pick up a couple states like MN and NH that were close but went to HRC doesn't inspire much confidence that he will lose.
I disagree. I don't think that everyone who voted for Trump in 2016 is a true believer. He also needed a lot of voters from outside his hard core base.

And I feel there are going to be a lot of people who voted for Trump in 2016 who won't be voting for him in 2020. Some people who believed his promises in 2016 are going to be disappointed by his failure to keep those promises in the last four year. And some people are going to be turned away by the various negative things that have happened.
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