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  #251  
Old 01-04-2020, 05:21 PM
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Guys, the de-escalation is spreading. Looks like the Iraqis are retreating! All hail President Trump!



https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status...664619009?s=19

https://twitter.com/Aletejah_TV/stat...229977090?s=19
lol
  #252  
Old 01-04-2020, 05:43 PM
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And Trump out there on Twitter, already wagging the dog:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...85005986959361
  #253  
Old 01-04-2020, 06:07 PM
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Did they shoot down a drone from behind their border?
Most intel points to the fact the drone was behind their border, as well.
  #254  
Old 01-04-2020, 06:13 PM
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And Trump out there on Twitter, already wagging the dog:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...85005986959361
I thought he was devoting all his executive time Faux news and golf.
  #255  
Old 01-04-2020, 06:21 PM
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I thought he was devoting all his executive time Faux news and golf.
The man's got to do something while he's waiting for the tank to refill between those 10-15 flushes.

Oh and now he's broadcasting his military strike plans on Twitter, which is going to include "52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture"

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...93975732527112

Very cool. Striking directly at Iranian cultural heritage is a really good way to show you're not trying to provoke anybody or escalate anything. And violating OPSEC on Twitter... JFC I can't even.
  #256  
Old 01-04-2020, 06:55 PM
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Originally Posted by HMS Irruncible View Post
The man's got to do something while he's waiting for the tank to refill between those 10-15 flushes.

Oh and now he's broadcasting his military strike plans on Twitter, which is going to include "52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture"

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...93975732527112

Very cool. Striking directly at Iranian cultural heritage is a really good way to show you're not trying to provoke anybody or escalate anything. And violating OPSEC on Twitter... JFC I can't even.
I think the message is not just a tweet; it's potentially very revealing. We're very clearly on the path to war with Iran, and at the same time it's clear that we're not preparing to occupy the country or rebuild it. That would suggest that the plan is to keep bombing Iran until the regime is gone. In kind, Iran's regime will keep fighting hard, using any means at its disposal, to deter the U.S. and turn American public opinion against a war -- one reason why I doubt that they would employ terrorism on American shores unless they felt that they had nothing left to lose. Terrorism against Americans abroad, against diplomats and US service members abroad? Oh yeah, I could see that for sure.
  #257  
Old 01-04-2020, 07:03 PM
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That would suggest that the plan is to keep bombing Iran until the regime is gone. In kind, Iran's regime will keep fighting hard, using any means at its disposal, to deter the U.S. and turn American public opinion against a war -- one reason why I doubt that they would employ terrorism on American shores unless they felt that they had nothing left to lose.
Can you find the flaw here?
  #258  
Old 01-04-2020, 07:21 PM
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Can you find the flaw here?
Yeah, that was poorly penned.

I meant that they won't do that right away -- the regime will hold off of terror attacks until they are all living in underground bunkers night and day.

If I may go back to being Alarmist Asahi for a moment, let's not forget the domestic side of this crisis. This is something that Trump can use to declare an emergency under the right circumstances, and there's not a doubt in my mind he'd try to expand presidential police power and his bootlickers in the Senate would support him.

All of us are following this discussion and treating it as a situation that's happening on the other side of the world (which it is, of course). But past administrations and congresses have created the national security state, and the real constitutional crisis - much bigger than Trump and the GOP trading sovereignty in exchange for an election win - is bubbling up just beneath the surface now. An executive power grab is there for the taking: emergency measures that render the rule of law and democracy null as we know it. I can't say for sure that it'll happen, but I'm saying it's there.

One truly disturbing development we've already observed and commented on in this thread is Mike Pence's deliberately lying and conflating this crisis with 9/11. Pence and everyone else knows it's a bald-faced lie. It shows that they are willing to lie to claim legitimacy in conflict. It also means that whatever repercussions they encounter - from the loss of military personnel, to the loss of civilian life, and to the collapse of public support - they are willing to lie and that they will only acknowledge those who profess their undying support for them. This is absolutely a Weimar moment, and we're in it. Right now.
  #259  
Old 01-04-2020, 08:10 PM
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I think the message is not just a tweet; it's potentially very revealing. We're very clearly on the path to war with Iran, and at the same time it's clear that we're not preparing to occupy the country or rebuild it. That would suggest that the plan is to keep bombing Iran until the regime is gone.
What we're going to do is litigate the decades-old question, reiterated in this very thread, of why can't we just bomb the fuck out of people we're angry at, and call it a day.

It seems like the US and Trumpkins and MAGATs will not be satisfied until we actually try this and see how it goes. It's desperately sad and disheartening, mainly because I think this tragic experiment will outlast the 9-year timeframe in which my kids might conceivably be drafted.
  #260  
Old 01-04-2020, 08:27 PM
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Originally Posted by HMS Irruncible View Post
The man's got to do something while he's waiting for the tank to refill between those 10-15 flushes.

Oh and now he's broadcasting his military strike plans on Twitter, which is going to include "52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture"

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...93975732527112

Very cool. Striking directly at Iranian cultural heritage is a really good way to show you're not trying to provoke anybody or escalate anything. And violating OPSEC on Twitter... JFC I can't even.
Not to mention the fact that that happened FORTY fucking years ago.
  #261  
Old 01-04-2020, 08:34 PM
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They apparently gave the assassination option which wasn't supposed to be the one he chose.

"In the chaotic days leading to the death of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran’s most powerful commander, top American military officials put the option of killing him — which they viewed as the most extreme response to recent Iranian-led violence in Iraq — on the menu they presented to President Trump.

They didn’t think he would take it. In the wars waged since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, Pentagon officials have often offered improbable options to presidents to make other possibilities appear more palatable."


"That official described the intelligence as thin and said that General Suleimani’s attack was not imminent because of communications the United States had between Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and General Suleimani showing that the ayatollah had not yet approved any plans by the general for an attack. The ayatollah, according to the communications, had asked General Suleimani to come to Tehran for further discussions at least a week before his death. "
  #262  
Old 01-04-2020, 08:57 PM
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What we're going to do is litigate the decades-old question, reiterated in this very thread, of why can't we just bomb the fuck out of people we're angry at, and call it a day.
How is it a decades-old question? As far as I can tell, we’ve bombed the fuck out of people we’re angry at, and then we’ve put boots on the ground — and I get that that’s a decades-old point we maybe don’t need to go on and on about. You get that I’m talking about skipping the “boots on the ground” part, right?
  #263  
Old 01-04-2020, 09:14 PM
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. . . You get that I’m talking about skipping the “boots on the ground” part, right?
So bomb the shit of them and then hope what, that the regime just disappears? That Hezbollah and all the other Iran-associated militia throughout the ME just disappear with them?

You know, they might. But they might not. And I can guarantee Shia Islam will not. The US will create an implacable enemy for generations.

OTOH, Saudi Arabia will be most grateful and forever indebted.

Last edited by KarlGauss; 01-04-2020 at 09:16 PM.
  #264  
Old 01-04-2020, 10:06 PM
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[QUOTE=Try2B Comprehensive;22062487]
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And this now dead general Did fight a guerilla war against the US in the Iraq war.
That ended 17 years ago.

Quote:
With Iran it goes back to 1979
And *that* was FOURTY years ago. *And* you blew them up about it already.
Do I get to murder German officials because they took Alsace & Lorraine once ? What's the expiration date on a casus belli, if any ?

Last edited by Kobal2; 01-04-2020 at 10:07 PM.
  #265  
Old 01-04-2020, 10:24 PM
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When Trump tweeted ""We have ... targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran" and "if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets... Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD,", I came up with a possible solution to this dilemma.
Superglue mittens onto his hands and duct tape his mouth shut.

Last edited by Czarcasm; 01-04-2020 at 10:25 PM.
  #266  
Old 01-04-2020, 10:27 PM
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@ Kobal- Yabbut, memories in that part of the world go back centuries. They hold grudges from 500+ years ago. 40 years is nothing when Persia was already old at the Battle of Marathon. Plus, Mr Guerilla War was still an active combatant at the hour of his death, not some relic of the past.

I am not trying to defend Trump here, just, yanno, being comprehensive.

Last edited by Try2B Comprehensive; 01-04-2020 at 10:28 PM.
  #267  
Old 01-04-2020, 10:28 PM
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That ended 17 years ago.

And *that* was FOURTY years ago. *And* you blew them up about it already.
Do I get to murder German officials because they took Alsace & Lorraine once ? What's the expiration date on a casus belli, if any ?
https://www.thedailybeast.com/berwic...ar-with-russia

Last edited by Sage Rat; 01-04-2020 at 10:28 PM.
  #268  
Old 01-04-2020, 10:32 PM
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What we're going to do is litigate the decades-old question, reiterated in this very thread, of why can't we just bomb the fuck out of people we're angry at, and call it a day.

It seems like the US and Trumpkins and MAGATs will not be satisfied until we actually try this and see how it goes. It's desperately sad and disheartening, mainly because I think this tragic experiment will outlast the 9-year timeframe in which my kids might conceivably be drafted.
Maybe, but on the other hand, let's consider what happens when the US just bombs the ever-living fuck out of countries with the assumption that we'll crush an ideology.

Let's see: bombed the ever-living shit out of Vietnam, and made the country nearly united against us. Bombed the ever-living shit out of Laos and ended up turning that country communist. Bombed the ever-living shit out of Cambodia and get the Khmer Rouge.

Fast forward to more recently. Bomb the shit of Afghanistan and no more loyalty to the US than we had in 2001. Bombed Iraq and we got a mostly Iran-leaning "partner." So, we can see where this will lead already.

We can level Iran. We might get a refugee crisis. We might get a power vacuum. We won't fill it. Maybe Russia or China will.

Oh by the way: we're adding more than a trillion dollars in deficits to our national debt every year. A hegemony requires money to run it. We're not in it for the long haul.

As I've said, Persia and Mesopotamia: graveyard of the American hegemony.
  #269  
Old 01-04-2020, 10:47 PM
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How is it a decades-old question? As far as I can tell, we’ve bombed the fuck out of people we’re angry at, and then we’ve put boots on the ground — and I get that that’s a decades-old point we maybe don’t need to go on and on about. You get that I’m talking about skipping the “boots on the ground” part, right?
Yep. I get that. This is what every drunk idiot uncle at the end of the bar yells at the TV at the sign of every conflict. "Just bomb them and go home."

How do you think this turns out well for the US in this case? 1 years, 5 years, 10 years down the road? Does Iran never come back from this? Does nobody come to their aid? Is that someone else's problem? Are you thinking about what we get out of this, or are you just thinking of the satisfaction you'll feel watching a short-term victory on the teevee?
  #270  
Old 01-04-2020, 10:54 PM
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@ Kobal- Yabbut, memories in that part of the world go back centuries. They hold grudges from 500+ years ago. 40 years is nothing when Persia was already old at the Battle of Marathon. Plus, Mr Guerilla War was still an active combatant at the hour of his death, not some relic of the past.

I am not trying to defend Trump here, just, yanno, being comprehensive.
So the logic here is that Trump gets to blow up the general because the people of the general's country maybe hold ole grudges ? The hell ?
  #271  
Old 01-04-2020, 11:27 PM
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The 'logic' is the enmity between the two countries, the recent escalating tensions, and that this guy in particular basically ran a terrorist army that killed US troops. His arrival in Iraq probably signalled more mayhem. You said the enmity was too old, and I responded that nothing is too old with these guys.

Good idea? Separate question.
  #272  
Old 01-04-2020, 11:31 PM
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What if the Iranians play grown-up? Along the lines of "We are super-dooper pissed off, but we are restraining ourselves because the gravity of the situation is a big fat crazy American guy". Be a hell of a thing, that kinda self control, so I gotta doubt it, But it would sure make us look like junkyard dogs, yes?
  #273  
Old 01-04-2020, 11:40 PM
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What if the Iranians play grown-up? Along the lines of "We are super-dooper pissed off, but we are restraining ourselves because the gravity of the situation is a big fat crazy American guy". Be a hell of a thing, that kinda self control, so I gotta doubt it, But it would sure make us look like junkyard dogs, yes?
No, it wouldn't.
Such a move would be followed by a couple of dozen TrumpTweets celebrating the "fact" that he made them back down, followed by the Republicans backing him up.
  #274  
Old 01-05-2020, 12:23 AM
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True. But Pompeo is already complaining about Europe being insufficiently pro-American.

Pompeo Laments ‘The Europeans Haven’t Been As Helpful’ In Response To Soleimani Strike

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During an appearance on Fox News host Sean Hannity’s Friday night, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo threw European allies under the bus for not coming around to President Trump’s authorization of the strike that killed top Iranian military official Qasem Soleimani....
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/p...rike-europeans
  #275  
Old 01-05-2020, 12:50 AM
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The 'logic' is the enmity between the two countries, the recent escalating tensions, and that this guy in particular basically ran a terrorist army that killed US troops. His arrival in Iraq probably signalled more mayhem. You said the enmity was too old, and I responded that nothing is too old with these guys.

Good idea? Separate question.
You know how to 100% prevent guys like him from killing US troops ? Not having US troops there. And come on. You know the beef (some) Iraqis have with US isn't about ancient enmities and bygone slights. Much like that guy wasn't in Iraq about the hostage bloody crisis. You're all there for the oil & political influence in the right now. It can stop any time you like...

But as has been recently pointed to me, the "neat" thing about the US maintaining mil bases all over the world is that any conflict whatsoever is bound to be able to be described as "putting American lives at risk" and thus demand retaliation/pre-emptive bombing and what have you. And thus the forever war continues, for the holy glory of Northrop-Grumman.

Last edited by Kobal2; 01-05-2020 at 12:51 AM.
  #276  
Old 01-05-2020, 01:04 AM
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What if the Iranians play grown-up? Along the lines of "We are super-dooper pissed off, but we are restraining ourselves because the gravity of the situation is a big fat crazy American guy". Be a hell of a thing, that kinda self control, so I gotta doubt it, But it would sure make us look like junkyard dogs, yes?
Iran will respond. If they don't, they will be seen as weak by the Saudis and the Sunnis in general, as well as by Israel and the US.

But Iran never responds quickly or rashly. They will think about it carefully for a few weeks or months, and weigh all their options and the all the likely responses. They will make a calculated and calibrated response, not an all-out attack.

Their options include cyberwarfare, strikes at US allies like the Saudis and the Israelis, strikes at US bases or embassies around the world, attacks on American contractors in the Middle East, a limited or temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on oil tankers, multiple small attacks of various types.
  #277  
Old 01-05-2020, 02:04 AM
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They apparently gave the assassination option which wasn't supposed to be the one he chose.

"In the chaotic days leading to the death of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran’s most powerful commander, top American military officials put the option of killing him — which they viewed as the most extreme response to recent Iranian-led violence in Iraq — on the menu they presented to President Trump.

They didn’t think he would take it. In the wars waged since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, Pentagon officials have often offered improbable options to presidents to make other possibilities appear more palatable."


"That official described the intelligence as thin and said that General Suleimani’s attack was not imminent because of communications the United States had between Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and General Suleimani showing that the ayatollah had not yet approved any plans by the general for an attack. The ayatollah, according to the communications, had asked General Suleimani to come to Tehran for further discussions at least a week before his death. "
Why? Why why why why why does military leadership give Trump an extreme response, knowing how clueless he is and how Neanderthal his logic is? (Iran man bad. Kill bad Iran man.) After meeting with him for three years, how do they not expect him to take it? Let's fly another plane past King Kong. Surely he won't swat this one!
  #278  
Old 01-05-2020, 02:06 AM
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Lol, thinking the racist mob boss wouldn't make his bones with some Islamic Middle Eastern 'terrorist'.
  #279  
Old 01-05-2020, 02:40 AM
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Guys, the man has already wondered why we have nukes if we're not going to use them, so the longer he remains in office the % chance of nukes being fired inexorably approaches 1.
  #280  
Old 01-05-2020, 02:52 AM
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The Advisor to the President of Iran just tweeted this 7 minutes ago:

https://twitter.com/hesamodin1/statu...046379009?s=19
  #281  
Old 01-05-2020, 04:26 AM
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Iran will respond. If they don't, they will be seen as weak by the Saudis and the Sunnis in general, as well as by Israel and the US.

But Iran never responds quickly or rashly. They will think about it carefully for a few weeks or months, and weigh all their options and the all the likely responses. They will make a calculated and calibrated response, not an all-out attack.
Exactly right. Indeed, Soleimani's successor has indicated that he'll be taking his sweet time on this one:

"Be patient, and you will see the bodies of Americans all over the Middle East" (italics mine).

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Their options include cyberwarfare, strikes at US allies like the Saudis and the Israelis, strikes at US bases or embassies around the world, attacks on American contractors in the Middle East, a limited or temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on oil tankers, multiple small attacks of various types.
Methinks the first step is likely to come today, Sunday, when the Iraqi parliament is "expected to vote on a proposal to expel the American forces from Iraq".

Iran isn't looking for mere "revenge." They're looking for a form of revenge from which they'll benefit on a deeper strategic level. From that point of view, a random "terrorist" attack, inside or outside of the US, doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Turning the entirety of the Iraqi polity well and truly against the American presence (and more firmly into the Iranian fold), however, does.
  #282  
Old 01-05-2020, 04:32 AM
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The Advisor to the President of Iran just tweeted this 7 minutes ago:

https://twitter.com/hesamodin1/statu...046379009?s=19
Interesting. I feel like I should tentatively take that as a confirmation of...

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019...t-organization
  #283  
Old 01-05-2020, 06:59 AM
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Yep. I get that. This is what every drunk idiot uncle at the end of the bar yells at the TV at the sign of every conflict. "Just bomb them and go home."

How do you think this turns out well for the US in this case? 1 years, 5 years, 10 years down the road? Does Iran never come back from this? Does nobody come to their aid? Is that someone else's problem?
All sorts of possibilities. Possibly we bomb their capital and smash their military, and leave no Boots On The Ground, and someone else then — well, no, doesn’t come to their aid, but instead puts Boots On The Ground to attack them. You know, because their military has been smashed, like I was just saying. Possibly we bomb their capital and smash their military, and leave no Boots On The Ground — and, as you say, they “come back from this”, at which point we say, ‘look, here’s what we want; do it or we’ll, y’know, bomb your capital and smash your military’. And so on.

If we can explain that to them before we actually start bombing their capital and smashing their military, then maybe we can give them that choice and get the right answer from them without actually bothering to bomb their capital and smash their military; I think that’d be even better, since I’m not thinking of the satisfaction I’d get from watching this on the teevee, but of what we’d get out of this. But if they pick Option B, then maybe we shrug and oblige them once every five years or whatever — with no Boots On The Ground — until they pick Option A.

Quote:
Are you thinking about what we get out of this, or are you just thinking of the satisfaction you'll feel watching a short-term victory on the teevee?
I’m thinking about what we get out of this.
  #284  
Old 01-05-2020, 08:18 AM
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Iran will respond. If they don't, they will be seen as weak by the Saudis and the Sunnis in general, as well as by Israel and the US.

But Iran never responds quickly or rashly. They will think about it carefully for a few weeks or months, and weigh all their options and the all the likely responses. They will make a calculated and calibrated response, not an all-out attack.

Their options include cyberwarfare, strikes at US allies like the Saudis and the Israelis, strikes at US bases or embassies around the world, attacks on American contractors in the Middle East, a limited or temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on oil tankers, multiple small attacks of various types.
I think this is among the most accurate posts so far -- nice job.

Iran probably wasn't expecting this kind of escalation. I would agree with Trump's supporters (or those who thought this was a good move) that this was a big blow and that this will sting Iran hard -- in the short term. But Iran what makes Iran dangerous right now isn't simply the fact that they're pissed off at us for such an escalation; they're more than pissed, they're pissed and they're also extremely alarmed, because they have every reason to believe that the US wants a war and wants a regime change and that there's no exit ramp. That makes Iran dangerous.

They won't necessarily attack American cities -- not yet. But they are going to be ruthlessly going after Americans pretty much anywhere they exist outside of the homeland. I doubt they go after civilians primarily; they'd probably prefer hitting us where it hurts, like near American military bases or places where American diplomats or national security personnel might congregate. Maybe an odd German or Italian night club here and there where American officials are known to party - that sorta thing. Contrary to what they say about making things more stable, Trump and his boot lickers have really jeopardized the safety of Americans pretty much everywhere, especially the safety of the troops whom they use as props for their jingoistic circle jerks.

Last edited by asahi; 01-05-2020 at 08:19 AM.
  #285  
Old 01-05-2020, 08:29 AM
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All sorts of possibilities. Possibly we bomb their capital and smash their military, and leave no Boots On The Ground, and someone else then — well, no, doesn’t come to their aid, but instead puts Boots On The Ground to attack them. You know, because their military has been smashed, like I was just saying. Possibly we bomb their capital and smash their military, and leave no Boots On The Ground — and, as you say, they “come back from this”, at which point we say, ‘look, here’s what we want; do it or we’ll, y’know, bomb your capital and smash your military’. And so on.

If we can explain that to them before we actually start bombing their capital and smashing their military, then maybe we can give them that choice and get the right answer from them without actually bothering to bomb their capital and smash their military; I think that’d be even better, since I’m not thinking of the satisfaction I’d get from watching this on the teevee, but of what we’d get out of this. But if they pick Option B, then maybe we shrug and oblige them once every five years or whatever — with no Boots On The Ground — until they pick Option A.


I’m thinking about what we get out of this.
Christ, it's really sad that there are probably millions of people who believe in this sort of nonsense. The above is nothing but Hollywood "USA! USA!" Die Hard fantasy.

Look, Iran has been preparing itself for war with the United States for 40 years. It's not like they haven't considered carpet bombing a possibility. They've been preparing for war with the Great Satan knowing all the while that we have thousands of nuclear weapons to their none. Any attempt to carpet bomb Iran would very likely be countered with a very nasty surprise that most Americans are in no way prepared for.

And besides, When will we ever learn that bombing the hell out of an adversary is not necessarily a recipe for victory. We dropped an incredible amount of ordnance in SE Asia and not only did we not stop communism, we actually helped unite people against the US and aided its spread. Even if we succeeded in wiping Iran off the map, it would probably inspire waves of terrorism that would make 9/11 look insignificant by comparison. All of this talk about crushing Tehran is dumb - that's not the direction we want to go in and we should stop fantasizing about it.
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Old 01-05-2020, 08:44 AM
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Iran isn't looking for mere "revenge." They're looking for a form of revenge from which they'll benefit on a deeper strategic level. From that point of view, a random "terrorist" attack, inside or outside of the US, doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Turning the entirety of the Iraqi polity well and truly against the American presence (and more firmly into the Iranian fold), however, does.
Exactly.

Iran's end game, like Russia's, Syria's, China's, North Korea's, is to weaken America's influence, and one way to do that is to make America a toxic presence.
  #287  
Old 01-05-2020, 09:29 AM
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Iran's end game, like Russia's, Syria's, China's, North Korea's, is to weaken America's influence, and one way to do that is to make America a toxic presence.
And first to be made 'toxic' will be Trump properties around the globe. How long before a Trump hotel is hit? And the necessary security presence and precautions will make staying there like a visit to Guantanamo. Who in their right mind would want to go there? Of course all this will cause Trump to lose money and who knows what he'll do then.
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Old 01-05-2020, 09:39 AM
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I’m thinking about what we get out of this.
In your reckoning, what do we get out of this?
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Old 01-05-2020, 10:03 AM
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The Advisor to the President of Iran just tweeted this 7 minutes ago:

https://twitter.com/hesamodin1/statu...046379009?s=19
Ddamn; that was smart. Prolly the single best thing that Iran can do is just dish on Trump personally.
  #290  
Old 01-05-2020, 10:37 AM
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In your reckoning, what do we get out of this?
You tell me. Draw up a list of what they can do for us; make it so onerous that it’d make sense for them to say, no, it’d be preferable for our military to be smashed and our capital to be bombed. And then draw up a more reasonable list, such that it’d make sense for them to say okay, it’d be worse for our military to be smashed and our capital to be bombed. And then put aside the first list.
  #291  
Old 01-05-2020, 10:45 AM
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And first to be made 'toxic' will be Trump properties around the globe. How long before a Trump hotel is hit? And the necessary security presence and precautions will make staying there like a visit to Guantanamo. Who in their right mind would want to go there? Of course all this will cause Trump to lose money and who knows what he'll do then.
So, along those lines....

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The Advisor to the President of Iran just tweeted this 7 minutes ago:

https://twitter.com/hesamodin1/statu...046379009?s=19
  #292  
Old 01-05-2020, 10:46 AM
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You tell me.
No, you tell me. This is your war fantasy, not mine. What benefit does the US attain from smashing the Iranian army & navy, apart from the satisfaction of having done that? What do we get for that cost?

You really seem to be avoiding answering that question. Is it because all the rationalizations are weak and you'd rather not talk about them?
  #293  
Old 01-05-2020, 11:10 AM
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Gotta say, mentally building a list of the top 52 American "cultural" and "historic" locations for terrorist attacks is kind of difficult given the vast number of targets. For example is an Amazon server farm more of a "cultural" artifact than Disneyland? If I poison the city of Louisville's water supply, does that even count to the 52?

So, so nice we have a President where this is not merely a cynical thought exercise, but rather a response to his stated policy goals. Good going, 2016 Trump voters, every single one of you.

Last edited by JohnT; 01-05-2020 at 11:11 AM.
  #294  
Old 01-05-2020, 11:13 AM
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No, you tell me. This is your war fantasy, not mine.
I honestly thought it was yours.

You wrote: “make no mistake, every US war will now feature a Fox News phase with 1-2 months of spectacular destruction which America will surely triumph”. (Likewise, Sam Stone, in apparent agreement, wrote: “The U.S. military can stomp any other military on the planet into dust. There is absolutely no question about that. If Iran were foolish enough to start a full-scale war with the U.S., its military would cease to exist as a fighting force within days.” And, in reply to bump, you wrote: “you've reinforced my statement that the US wins in the short, kinetic timeframe.”

I didn’t bring that up; I’m responding to it. I figured it was situated in a scenario where we have something to gain by smashing their military and doing what you referred to as “spectacular destruction”, and I figured your objection was that we’d then be in big trouble because triumphing at that first part is comparatively easy and losing the second part is, sadly, what happens all too often when we then try for some kind of plan involving, y’know, Boots On The Ground.

If there isn’t a list of stuff we want from Iran and can get by smashing their military and bombing their capital, or by pointing out that we can do that, then, sure, my advice is: don’t bother to smash their military and bomb their capital. If this whole discussion wasn’t taking place in some preexisting context of “here’s what we want; how can we get it?” — well, then, hey, all apologies.
  #295  
Old 01-05-2020, 11:21 AM
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Iraq Parliament votes to expel US troops, calls to close embassy:

https://twitter.com/farnazfassihi/st...045523968?s=19

Putin's puppet indeed!

Last edited by JohnT; 01-05-2020 at 11:21 AM.
  #296  
Old 01-05-2020, 11:26 AM
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Promises made...
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  #297  
Old 01-05-2020, 11:39 AM
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Methinks the first step is likely to come today, Sunday, when the Iraqi parliament is "expected to vote on a proposal to expel the American forces from Iraq".

Iran isn't looking for mere "revenge." They're looking for a form of revenge from which they'll benefit on a deeper strategic level. From that point of view, a random "terrorist" attack, inside or outside of the US, doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Turning the entirety of the Iraqi polity well and truly against the American presence (and more firmly into the Iranian fold), however, does.
Aaaaaand here we go.

ETA: Oh snap, ninja'd by JohnT!

Last edited by Steken; 01-05-2020 at 11:40 AM.
  #298  
Old 01-05-2020, 11:40 AM
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Iraq Parliament votes to expel US troops, calls to close embassy:

https://twitter.com/farnazfassihi/st...045523968?s=19

Putin's puppet indeed!
It's this generation's "YANKEE GO HOME".
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  #299  
Old 01-05-2020, 11:42 AM
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Iraq Parliament votes to expel US troops, calls to close embassy:

https://twitter.com/farnazfassihi/st...045523968?s=19

Putin's puppet indeed!
Actual news article:
BBC: Iraqi MPs back plan to expel US troops
Quote:
The non-binding resolution was passed on Sunday after Iraq's caretaker Prime Minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, called for an end to the foreign military presence in a speech to MPs.
  #300  
Old 01-05-2020, 11:56 AM
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Even if the resolution is non-binding, the our justification for our continued existence in Iraq is pretty badly weakened.

"We can help you fight ISIS."

The guy we took out was widely regarded by Iraqis as one of the leading -- maybe *the* leading -- anti-ISIS organizers. And let's not forget how we stabbed the Kurds in the back. Nor should we forget that we continue to support the regime most responsible for the export of radical Sunni ideology worldwide, despite its repeated and obvious war crimes in the regime. That rationale is looking pretty weak now.

And JohnT's right: Trump is Putin's little puppet.
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