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  #51  
Old 01-07-2020, 06:40 PM
Euphonious Polemic is offline
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Originally Posted by phantom lamb View Post

Who do you think will be the face of the party 4 years from now?
Possibly Dmitry Medvedev.
  #52  
Old 01-07-2020, 06:41 PM
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Originally Posted by BeepKillBeep View Post
I think Ted Nugent has a shot. He has plenty of media appearances. He says stupid, hateful and violent things. He's ludicrously unqualified. He's very pro-Trump. All characteristics that the current Republican supporters seem to love.

I wish I was kidding.
I think Ted is too dignified. You're going to have to find someone a little more prone to outbursts and racist rants.
  #53  
Old 01-07-2020, 09:43 PM
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I think a couple of us are oversimplifying demographic changes a little. It's not just about California. The rising generations of voters are overwhelmingly liberal and they're not restricted to the west coast. Growth in Atlanta and other southern cities is making southern states less and less red with almost every election. Hispanics are growing as a percentage of the population all across the south, not just Texas.
This just isn't true, though. If you actually examine the Republican lean of Southern states, it is not going down. It's mostly going UP.
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  #54  
Old 01-07-2020, 10:49 PM
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The nightmare in gonna continue. This Axios poll has Trump Jr right behind Pence in 2024 (at least among the proposed candidates).

https://www.axios.com/2024-election-...d303604a6.html
  #55  
Old 01-08-2020, 12:33 AM
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Assuming that the country remains a reasonably functioning democracy, demographics will doom Trumpism in the next decade. But the current GOP is so identified with him that I think it might actually be more likely that they simply won't be able to survive as a major national party, because their base will refuse to nominate anyone capable of winning a general election, and even if they do manage to nominate a relative moderate, that candidate will still be tagged with the radioactive Trump brand.

Then the Democrats would split into progressive and moderate wings, and those would be the two new major parties. Of course, the Trumpists could still maintain control of certain particularly unfortunate States for a long time to come.
We have had political parties die off split and mutate historically.

I will be sad if the party dies totally, but if it happens, it happens.
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  #56  
Old 01-08-2020, 07:18 AM
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Originally Posted by KidCharlemagne View Post
The nightmare in gonna continue. This Axios poll has Trump Jr right behind Pence in 2024 (at least among the proposed candidates).

https://www.axios.com/2024-election-...d303604a6.html
I'm surprised about Pence "leading" there. He seems a polar opposite to Trump in SOME aspects (not in awfulness though so there's that). I can barely tell if the man even has a pulse most of the time.
  #57  
Old 01-08-2020, 07:25 AM
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Also, I think some people are mischaracterizing Trump's base as being mostly old men who are dying out - I may be wrong because I haven't checked out reliable statistic recently but I am under the impression that there are quite A LOT of young Trumpers/conservatives just by browsing websites like Reddit/instagram/twitter. Like, not significantly less than the amount of young progressives I see online.

Last edited by phantom lamb; 01-08-2020 at 07:25 AM.
  #58  
Old 01-08-2020, 09:16 AM
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Normally, losing an election turns the GOP nominee into a pariah- see Romney and McCain. Should the Democrat win in 2020, Donald will concentrate full-time on staying out of prison. He won't be speaking out on issues because he doesn't care about them, other than white supremacy.

Where do the MAGAbots go from here? They'll gravitate to a white supremacist candidate, if one runs. But who on the national stage is as virulently racist as DJT? Maybe Don Junior? Politico has a list of potential 2024 candidates. I'm not seeing the leader of the reich here, except for Don Junior.

What I think happens- Democrats win big in 2020, racists go back into hiding. Donald dies early in the new decade. Republicans nominate an old fashioned white dude like Cornyn or Cotton. There is no need to nominate another flaming racist, because the racist base isn't going anywhere. It'll be back to dog whistles for a while.
  #59  
Old 01-08-2020, 09:31 AM
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This just isn't true, though. If you actually examine the Republican lean of Southern states, it is not going down. It's mostly going UP.
Define "lean" for me. Because the gap in statewide elections has been narrowing in formerly ruby red states like NC, GA and Tejas.
  #60  
Old 01-08-2020, 09:39 AM
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Originally Posted by phantom lamb View Post
Also, I think some people are mischaracterizing Trump's base as being mostly old men who are dying out - I may be wrong because I haven't checked out reliable statistic recently but I am under the impression that there are quite A LOT of young Trumpers/conservatives just by browsing websites like Reddit/instagram/twitter. Like, not significantly less than the amount of young progressives I see online.
While it's likely true that 80% of likely Republican voters are still under the age of 65, as someone on Twitter noted last week, millennial voters went Democrat by about 35 points in the last midterms. More importantly, they are defying the stereotypical historical trends by not turning towards (American) conservatism and church membership as they reach their family-rearing middle ages. The conservatives who routinely sneer at current demographical trends as a problem for the GOP are too full of shit to see that the old beliefs aren't holding true any more.
  #61  
Old 01-08-2020, 10:44 AM
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Normally, losing an election turns the GOP nominee into a pariah- see Romney and McCain. Should the Democrat win in 2020, Donald will concentrate full-time on staying out of prison. He won't be speaking out on issues because he doesn't care about them, other than white supremacy.
He doesn't care about issues, but he does care about being in front of an adoring crowd.

Among his many negative traits is laziness, and yet he has never stopped the rallies; it's the one thing he loves as much as Ivanka (and himself).

The only thing that would stop him doing it is if the crowds thin out, or regularly heckle him. Which is possible, but the trumpists don't seem to care about objective reality, so it's going to take a hell of a lot to get there.

So, most likely, we will continue to hear his ridiculous views (to the extent he can form them), and he will continue to foment conflict in society, right the way to his prison cell.
And probably after that.

Last edited by Mijin; 01-08-2020 at 10:47 AM.
  #62  
Old 01-08-2020, 10:53 AM
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<missed edit window>
And of course, if trump loses the election his overall support will go down a lot, but his base...I'm not so sure.
Bear in mind, he was all set to be some kind of rebel figure when it looked like Hillary would win. His schtick about "deep state" etc would have been simpler (it would have just been "the government"). I honestly think he would prefer it to being in power, and his base will stay with him.
  #63  
Old 01-08-2020, 11:42 AM
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The only thing that would stop him doing it is if the crowds thin out, or regularly heckle him. Which is possible, but the trumpists don't seem to care about objective reality, so it's going to take a hell of a lot to get there.
One thing that may stop is if he has to foot the bill. Right now they can be paid for by his re-election campaign- what happens when he no longer has that source of money to tap into?
  #64  
Old 01-12-2020, 03:09 PM
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After just surviving a conversation with my Trump loving family about the amazingly accomplished Trump children, I'm pretty sure this is the direction that the Foxnews 24/7 crowd is going.
  #65  
Old 01-12-2020, 06:43 PM
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Were it up to me, a court-appointed liquidation trustee...

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Originally Posted by Red Wiggler View Post
While it's likely true that 80% of likely Republican voters are still under the age of 65, as someone on Twitter noted last week, millennial voters went Democrat by about 35 points in the last midterms. More importantly, they are defying the stereotypical historical trends by not turning towards (American) conservatism and church membership as they reach their family-rearing middle ages.
From your lips to Og's ears but I hope you'll understand me that I've been hearing the prediction of the inevitable demographic doom of the Right, and well before that the claim that the "New Generation" will usher in an age of enlightened liberation, for long enough that I'm not laying money on it.
  #66  
Old 01-12-2020, 07:05 PM
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The US Constitution requires that members of the House and Senate be "persons" (human*) but their leadership are not so limited and need not be members - those chambers can choose whomever or whatever they wish. The President is required to be male human**. Judges and Justices have no requirements of gender or species.***

I don't know if RNC and DNC have humanity requirements for any roles. I suspect a future leader of either party may be a cyborg (at least partially human), android, cloud-based AI, or IQ-enhanced rang-tang (popular with the current base) or poodle (popular with toddlers, the future electorate). Only partial or full humans, born somewhere, can hold elected office, but there's behind-the-scenes power, too.

* Art.I Sec.2: "No Person shall be a Representative who shall not..." and Art.I Sec.3: "No Person shall be a Senator who shall not...". Cf also Amend.XIV Sec.1: "All persons born or naturalized..." But if Congress ever defines the unborn or inhuman as "persons", all bets are off. Elect a bonobo fetus to the Senate!

** Art.II Sec.1 Par.1: "He shall hold his Office..." and Par.4: "No Person except..." and Par.6: "The President shall... receive for his services..." and Par.8: "Before he enter on the Execution of his Office, he shall take the following Oath or Affirmation..." Further instances of "he" as President occur in this Article.

*** Art.III: Judges of all courts are undefined. A Magic-8-Ball could be appointed.
  #67  
Old 01-13-2020, 08:43 AM
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Were it up to me, a court-appointed liquidation trustee...



From your lips to Og's ears but I hope you'll understand me that I've been hearing the prediction of the inevitable demographic doom of the Right, and well before that the claim that the "New Generation" will usher in an age of enlightened liberation, for long enough that I'm not laying money on it.
It would be more effective if you would explain why you think that change won't occur. Do you see the demographics as being the same as they were whenever you began having these feelings of fatigue?
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