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Old 01-07-2020, 08:13 PM
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Gulf War 3 thread


Since the 'assassination' has now moved to open war, I have asked and received permission to open up a Gulf War 3* 'omnibus' thread.

Reports here: https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1214692125557895168?s=19

Assassination thread here: https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb...d.php?t=887808

*Calling it GW3 because we may not have all the belligerents officially involved yet.

Last edited by JohnT; 01-07-2020 at 08:14 PM.
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Old 01-07-2020, 08:32 PM
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Trump is planning to address the nation sometime tonight. I am sure his team's coordination with Congress to deal with War Powers Act rules will be seamless.
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Old 01-07-2020, 08:33 PM
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Imagine I have embedded a comic of a dog drinking coffee in a burning room.
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Old 01-07-2020, 08:40 PM
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Now they have decided that it just may be better if Trump didn't address the nation according to the Press Secretary, according to Josh Dawsey of WaPo:

https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/...474355713?s=19
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Old 01-07-2020, 08:43 PM
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I can't see how Trump addressing the nation would help. Then again, I can't see how having Trump at the helm would help.

I wonder who in Washington is starting to realize that they may be in over their heads.
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Old 01-07-2020, 08:45 PM
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Trump will respond -- it's inevitable. As I've said, he has to. He can't look weak. This is his Gulf of Tonkin moment.

We're at the "holy shit" stage now.
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Old 01-07-2020, 08:46 PM
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We can all agree that Donald Trump owns every life lost on both sides from this right? Like I'm assuming none of the Trumpists and Trumpists-lite on this board will claim otherwise?
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Old 01-07-2020, 08:50 PM
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Now they have decided that it just may be better if Trump didn't address the nation according to the Press Secretary, according to Josh Dawsey of WaPo:

https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/...474355713?s=19
Better go to Costco to get a pack of TP. There's gonna be lots of twitterreah tonight.
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Old 01-07-2020, 08:54 PM
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Israel wants no part of this. NATO wants no part of it. Russia and China are likely to be supporting Iran, quietly or openly.

I remember when Trump gave one of his more coherent speeches prior to the election. He said "America First doesn't mean America Alone." It appears it does.
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Old 01-07-2020, 09:06 PM
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Although Israel already used the F-35 first, it would still mark something of an "initiation" for the USAF to use F-35s, and this might just be it - unless there has been some American F-35 mission already in Syria that wasn't publicized.
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Old 01-07-2020, 09:06 PM
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Do we know if the missile attacks resulted in casualties?
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Old 01-07-2020, 09:09 PM
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Do we know if the missile attacks resulted in casualties?
Not yet, but our own military has said that the strikes targeted housing units on the air bases. So yes, good chance there are casualties.
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Old 01-07-2020, 09:10 PM
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Sounds like Iran claimed 30 Americans killed, and DoD is saying zero (so far). Twitter says Iraqis were killed, but havenít seen a number.
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Old 01-07-2020, 09:23 PM
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30 killed Americans would be HUGE news by now, so it's doubtful.
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Old 01-07-2020, 09:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by our dear president
All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...39853025394693

jsut wanted everyone to know that "all is well" ....

Last edited by simster; 01-07-2020 at 09:49 PM. Reason: no - I didn't make this shit up -
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Old 01-07-2020, 09:52 PM
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He might take a hit in the polls if it turns out that American servicemen died...
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Old 01-07-2020, 09:59 PM
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30 killed Americans would be HUGE news by now, so it's doubtful.
Just a few minutes ago on Cuomo's CNN show they were saying the missiles seemed to be intentionally targeted at unpopulated areas, at least unpopulated by Americans. Don't know about Iraqi casualties.

The pundits seemed to think this was Iran's way of retaliating without wanting to escalate further.
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Old 01-07-2020, 10:20 PM
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He might take a hit in the polls if it turns out that American servicemen died...
Really??? I hope youíre right.
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Old 01-07-2020, 10:22 PM
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Basically doing what Pakistan did with India last year, hit an open area inside a base?
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Old 01-07-2020, 10:34 PM
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He might take a hit in the polls if it turns out that American servicemen died...
Not necessarily; it depends on perceptions.
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Old 01-07-2020, 10:39 PM
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He might take a hit in the polls if it turns out that American servicemen died...
I doubt it, I think his approval rating will remain at about 42% no matter what.
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Old 01-07-2020, 10:44 PM
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Originally Posted by simster View Post
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...39853025394693

jsut wanted everyone to know that "all is well" ....
I am guessing that we won't see the President try to declare war tomorrow morning. I know he isn't up on the Constitution but surely he isn't going to try something that brash when we don't even have American casualties.

There are hawks in Congress but the last thing Republicans want is to start another unnecessary war in the Middle East, with all of the blame falling on an impeached Republican president, with no international support, in an election year, and without even a pretense of cassus bellli.

~Max
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Old 01-07-2020, 10:57 PM
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Not an American but why did the US department of Defense even offer the assassination up as an option to Trump? Well he took it. Without any explanation for the need to urgently drone the bastard.

I want to believe that someone does a calculation of likelihood/ability of deadly retaliation before droning becomes an option. Isn't that why the US attacks terrorists and not North Korea? Or why the US uses proxies to overthrow enemy state leaders like Gaddiffi/Assad and not Putin? Someone makes a risk assessment before Trump can rule on this; no? Well that person needs to be fired or Soleimani's immediate death better have been worth the lives lost in retaliation attacks.

Last edited by orcenio; 01-07-2020 at 10:58 PM.
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Old 01-07-2020, 10:58 PM
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A Boeing 737 has crashed in Iran. What a busy news day.
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Old 01-07-2020, 10:59 PM
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I am guessing that we won't see the President try to declare war tomorrow morning. I know he isn't up on the Constitution but surely he isn't going to try something that brash when we don't even have American casualties.

There are hawks in Congress but the last thing Republicans want is to start another unnecessary war in the Middle East, with all of the blame falling on an impeached Republican president, with no international support, in an election year, and without even a pretense of cassus bellli.

~Max
hmmmm

Quote:
Originally Posted by Supreme Leader Trump @
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...19480574812160 These Media Posts will serve as notification to the United States Congress that should Iran strike any U.S. person or target, the United States will quickly & fully strike back, & perhaps in a disproportionate manner. Such legal notice is not required, but is given nevertheless!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dictator Trump @
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...89342272659456
The United States just spent Two Trillion Dollars on Military Equipment. We are the biggest and by far the BEST in the World! If Iran attacks an American Base, or any American, we will be sending some of that brand new beautiful equipment their way...and without hesitation!
Quote:
Originally Posted by some asshole in the whitehouse
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...93965838163968
Iran is talking very boldly about targeting certain USA assets as revenge for our ridding the world of their terrorist leader who had just killed an American, & badly wounded many others, not to mention all of the people he had killed over his lifetime, including recently....

....hundreds of Iranian protesters. He was already attacking our Embassy, and preparing for additional hits in other locations. Iran has been nothing but problems for many years. Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have.....

....targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD. The USA wants no more threats!
seems he's stuck his foot in it.

Last edited by simster; 01-07-2020 at 11:03 PM. Reason: or are these simply the ravings of a madman? you decide
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Old 01-07-2020, 11:07 PM
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A Boeing 737 has crashed in Iran. What a busy news day.

I have a suspicious mind. A Ukrainian Airlines flight crashes shortly after leaving Tehran. I'm sure it's all a giant coincidence that an ally of ours (sort of) and an enemy of Russia's (definitely) had an airplane downed the same night as Iran launches missiles.
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Old 01-07-2020, 11:09 PM
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I wonder just how good Iranian targeting systems are. Because it seems to me that there are two possibilities:

1. The Iranians were aiming at US troops but missed. Which would indicate that they can't call their shots very well (albeit they seemed to do just fine when they hit Saudi oil facilities in September)

2. They deliberately hit sites close too but not hitting Americans, to in effect saying "we could have have killed your people but didn't, you want to talk now?"

I have no idea if either of the above is true, or if the Iranians are communicating with us via 'backchannels' (Europe or Russia). Obviously the next step in the macabre dance is ours, and with Our President calling the shots, I am not confident that the next steps will be either nuanced or well thought-out.

We shall see.
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Old 01-07-2020, 11:09 PM
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We can all agree that Donald Trump owns every life lost on both sides from this right? Like I'm assuming none of the Trumpists and Trumpists-lite on this board will claim otherwise?
Let's go to the quarry and throw stuff down there! Comedy gold right here, ladies and gentlemen! Comedy GOLD!
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Old 01-07-2020, 11:18 PM
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Originally Posted by simster View Post
Quote:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...19480574812160 These Media Posts will serve as notification to the United States Congress that should Iran strike any U.S. person or target, the United States will quickly & fully strike back, & perhaps in a disproportionate manner. Such legal notice is not required, but is given nevertheless!
That is terrifying.

~Max

Last edited by Max S.; 01-07-2020 at 11:21 PM. Reason: full quote, the tweet is from the 5th; emphasis mine
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Old 01-07-2020, 11:20 PM
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I wonder just how good Iranian targeting systems are. Because it seems to me that there are two possibilities:

1. The Iranians were aiming at US troops but missed. Which would indicate that they can't call their shots very well (albeit they seemed to do just fine when they hit Saudi oil facilities in September)

2. They deliberately hit sites close too but not hitting Americans, to in effect saying "we could have have killed your people but didn't, you want to talk now?"

I have no idea if either of the above is true, or if the Iranians are communicating with us via 'backchannels' (Europe or Russia). Obviously the next step in the macabre dance is ours, and with Our President calling the shots, I am not confident that the next steps will be either nuanced or well thought-out.

We shall see.
The 2nd option sounds much more plausible. Deep down, I don't think Tehran wants war. They're probably hoping Trump will resort to some non-kinetic things like cyberwarfare and let things cool down.

Cyberwarfare, interestingly, offers a way out for both sides. It is still warfare, but doesn't (usually) kill people, and is a non-violent way to let out steam.
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Old 01-07-2020, 11:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Stainless Steel Rat View Post
I wonder just how good Iranian targeting systems are. Because it seems to me that there are two possibilities:

1. The Iranians were aiming at US troops but missed. Which would indicate that they can't call their shots very well (albeit they seemed to do just fine when they hit Saudi oil facilities in September)

2. They deliberately hit sites close too but not hitting Americans, to in effect saying "we could have have killed your people but didn't, you want to talk now?"

I have no idea if either of the above is true, or if the Iranians are communicating with us via 'backchannels' (Europe or Russia). Obviously the next step in the macabre dance is ours, and with Our President calling the shots, I am not confident that the next steps will be either nuanced or well thought-out.

We shall see.
Those are area effect missiles, meant to be used with Gas or Nuke rounds. They were good enough to get them into the ball park, but one twitter video I was watching, showed the CRAM firing as it came down. Looks like the CRAM has the same problem as the first generation Patriot missile in Desert Storm. Cuts the missile in half, but the warhead still fuses on impact. Presicion targetting is not that missiles forte.

As for number two, the military is going to phase one. Put up combat air patrols, send out notams to get Irani airspace clear of passenger planes, hold all tankers short of the hormuz straight and clear all traffic in and outbound. Start moving the Navy shooters to the gunline, Get the B-52's to Diego Garcia, tanker aircraft and T-hawk reloads etc.
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Old 01-07-2020, 11:41 PM
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Cyberwarfare, interestingly, offers a way out for both sides. It is still warfare, but doesn't (usually) kill people, and is a non-violent way to let out steam.

Funny you should say that, I have to check with a friend tommorow, to see if those rockets can be remote launched.
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Old 01-07-2020, 11:51 PM
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Get the B-52's to Diego Garcia, tanker aircraft and T-hawk reloads etc.
Shouldn't they be emphasizing B-2s instead? Iran would probably be able to shoot down big lumbering non-stealthy bombers like B-52s.
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Old 01-07-2020, 11:53 PM
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2. They deliberately hit sites close too but not hitting Americans, to in effect saying "we could have have killed your people but didn't, you want to talk now?"
This. The BMs would have been picked up by satellite almost immediately and the warning would have been transmitted to the troops in danger by NORAD...take cover you guys ,quickly.
They seem to have launched them en salvo from a couple of spots, to make sure the US could see them. If they had used Cruise Missiles and expendable drones, (like against the Saudis), then they would have had much less or no warning (depending on assets deployed).

Quote:
I have no idea if either of the above is true, or if the Iranians are communicating with us via 'backchannels' (Europe or Russia). Obviously the next step in the macabre dance is ours, and with Our President calling the shots, I am not confident that the next steps will be either nuanced or well thought-out.

We shall see.
We know that they are.
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Old 01-07-2020, 11:55 PM
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Shouldn't they be emphasizing B-2s instead? Iran would probably be able to shoot down big lumbering non-stealthy bombers like B-52s.
...,equipped with advanced jammers and long range stand off weapons.
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Old 01-07-2020, 11:57 PM
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The 2nd option sounds much more plausible. Deep down, I don't think Tehran wants war. They're probably hoping Trump will resort to some non-kinetic things like cyberwarfare and let things cool down.

Cyberwarfare, interestingly, offers a way out for both sides. It is still warfare, but doesn't (usually) kill people, and is a non-violent way to let out steam.
Since Iran retaliated with a measured response (and took credit for it) and it appears that Trump has backed down from his "fire and fury" rhetoric, it seems that there was some desperate back channeling going on so both sides could save face. Of course, Trump backing down will be spun as a glorious dear leader move. He just saved us all from World War 3 with his brilliant presidenting! It seems that maybe cooler heads prevailed this time.
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Old 01-08-2020, 12:18 AM
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Israel wants no part of this. NATO wants no part of it.
You remember those hostages that Canada helped sneak out of Iran? They're thinking about giving them back, that's how much they want no part of this.

Last edited by Bryan Ekers; 01-08-2020 at 12:21 AM.
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Old 01-08-2020, 12:20 AM
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Originally Posted by aurora maire View Post
Since Iran retaliated with a measured response (and took credit for it) and it appears that Trump has backed down from his "fire and fury" rhetoric, it seems that there was some desperate back channeling going on so both sides could save face. Of course, Trump backing down will be spun as a glorious dear leader move. He just saved us all from World War 3 with his brilliant presidenting! It seems that maybe cooler heads prevailed this time.
Are you posting this now or from some future date?
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Old 01-08-2020, 12:40 AM
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I wonder just how good Iranian targeting systems are.
IMHO they were super good in the Saudi oil infrastructure attack.
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Old 01-08-2020, 12:50 AM
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Are you posting this now or from some future date?
After his "all is well" tweet tonight and before his "how can the Soleimani loving Democrats impeach me when I just showed everyone how bigly presidential I am" speech tomorrow morning.

And I did say "this time". No expectations that we won't be in the same shit, same time, next week.
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Old 01-08-2020, 12:53 AM
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News is reporting that all 170 aboard that Boeing 737 are dead. Tragic as it may be, this may be a good opportunity to end the conflict and nip it in the bud. Trump can send his condolences to Iran, the Iranian government can focus on the crash and investigation, the media in Iran and West can focus on the crash instead, and a week or two later, the war doesn't have to pick up where it left off.
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Old 01-08-2020, 12:57 AM
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His "All is well" tweet makes me think he had some knowledge that we're not privy to, perhaps even in advance of the actual "attack." He just doesn't know how to play his cards, and he telegraphs way sooner than he should. No person in their right mind would tweet out "All is well" less than three hours after missiles hit a base where American soldiers live, unless he knew, for a fucking fact, that it was a nothingburder. He's just too stupid to even play along to make the 'tit for tat' look legit.
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Old 01-08-2020, 01:13 AM
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We can all agree that Donald Trump owns every life lost on both sides from this right? Like I'm assuming none of the Trumpists and Trumpists-lite on this board will claim otherwise?
You do agree, don't you, that it takes two to tango?

Or is it your contention that poor, misunderstood, innocent Iran can kill as many people as it wants, in any way that it wants, and yet not bear any responsibility?
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Old 01-08-2020, 01:51 AM
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His "All is well" tweet makes me think he had some knowledge that we're not privy to, perhaps even in advance of the actual "attack." He just doesn't know how to play his cards, and he telegraphs way sooner than he should. No person in their right mind would tweet out "All is well" less than three hours after missiles hit a base where American soldiers live, unless he knew, for a fucking fact, that it was a nothingburder. He's just too stupid to even play along to make the 'tit for tat' look legit.
After the dust settled and everyone at the White House went home, I was put in mind of a wrestling match. Everyone played their part and the onlookers pretended it was real. It looks like Iran told us where they would strike so our folks could get out of the way and we didn't have to respond because they didn't kill anyone. So all is well.

Iran says they are done:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran
Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched.

We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.
And by the end of Hannity's show tonight he was praising Trump for not escalating things further and being the bigger man.

Of course, it remains to be seen if these pretenses will hold because you have angry men on one side and a petulant three year old surrounded by warhawks on the other.
  #45  
Old 01-08-2020, 02:04 AM
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For those questioning the response: It's Trump.

I mean....c'mon. Believe that....better or ill...
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Old 01-08-2020, 02:10 AM
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Those are area effect missiles, meant to be used with Gas or Nuke rounds.
It is not 1991. Iraq was using 70s Soviet technology with updates to extend range that may have decreased accuracy even further. The Scud itself was based on an updated anti-aircraft missile related to the German V2. It only had a relatively crude inertial guidance system that worked while the rocket motor was still burning. After that the entire missile just followed its ballistic trajectory. Unsurprisingly, the circular error probability (CEP) was something like a mile or two. Close enough for nukes or chemical warheads but otherwise pretty limited in effectiveness unless you just want to blow things up at random in Tel Aviv or London.

Iran has put quite a bit of effort into missiles in the almost three decades since the First Gulf War. Even without using WMD it serves a deterrent effect. There have gotten help from North Korea who has been a major developer, and exporter, of ballistic missile technology. They have gotten some help along the way including Chinese guidance technology. That bled over into Iranian missiles.

Iran does better than the Iraqi Scuds that shaped public perceptions of ballistic missiles. Cite
Quote:
The CEPs of Iranís missiles are believed to vary widely, from 100 meters for short-range systems like the Fateh-110 and its derivatives and perhaps the longer-range Emad, to several hundred meters for the Shahab-1 and 2, the Qiam, and the Ghadr, to 1 km or more for the Shahab-3.
That makes the relatively large conventional warheads on ballistic missiles effective in a way that Iraqi Scuds weren't. You really can pick targets like a specific large building and have a decent chance of directly hitting it if you fire 2-3 missiles with that accuracy.
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Old 01-08-2020, 02:41 AM
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Iran clearly doesn't want a full-scale war. My guess is Trump doesn't either but who can say for sure? There will be probably be a limited retaliation by the US on some Iranian military targets and after that my guess is both sides will de-escalate and stick to fighting each other behind the scenes like they have been doing for years.
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Old 01-08-2020, 07:49 AM
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This. The BMs would have been picked up by satellite almost immediately and the warning would have been transmitted to the troops in danger by NORAD...take cover you guys ,quickly.
I am pretty sure the North American Aerospace Defense Command doesn't cover the Middle East.
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Old 01-08-2020, 07:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Lantern View Post
Iran clearly doesn't want a full-scale war. My guess is Trump doesn't either but who can say for sure? There will be probably be a limited retaliation by the US on some Iranian military targets and after that my guess is both sides will de-escalate and stick to fighting each other behind the scenes like they have been doing for years.
I'm sure Iran doesn't want a war. Why? Because they're sane.

Does trump want a war? Yes, if it will 1) derail this impeachment nonsense, and/or 2) get him reelected.

Or maybe he thinks that if he takes us to the very brink of war and then stops it, that will 1) derail this impeachment nonsense, and/or 2) get him reelected.
  #50  
Old 01-08-2020, 08:27 AM
BeepKillBeep is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flyer View Post
You do agree, don't you, that it takes two to tango?

Or is it your contention that poor, misunderstood, innocent Iran can kill as many people as it wants, in any way that it wants, and yet not bear any responsibility?
Did you just admit that Donald Trump has some of the responsibility? That he owns some of this? That as you just said, "It takes two to tango."

Would you like to discuss the percentage of blame that goes to Iran and the percentage of blame that goes to Trump? Is it 50/50 or something else?

Last edited by BeepKillBeep; 01-08-2020 at 08:31 AM.
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