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  #201  
Old 05-11-2020, 06:20 PM
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How will people react if Covid-19 flares up when the lockdown ends?

The first thing they'll do is storm the grocery store and buy all of the motherfucking toilet paper. Trust me.
  #202  
Old 05-11-2020, 06:50 PM
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I dream of the motherfucking toilet paper. We didn't horde, two packages we ordered by mail in early April are still delayed, and it can't be bought by curbside pickup at our groceries. That'll learn me to trust supply chains.
  #203  
Old 05-11-2020, 07:20 PM
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Dr. Drake's post was in response this post:So, effectively, old people need to deal with the fact that we're opening this shit up so that young people don't go broke.
Yes. We've driven the numbers down substantially. We're better off in every way than we were 8 weeks ago. the death rate went from doubling every 3 days to every 71 days. The hospital crunch in NYC is over and the barely used medical ship departed a week ago. I'm not worried about the virus because the numbers are down and I am in control of my environment. I can wear an N-95 mask, wash my hands and steer clear of crowds.

And as a side note, I'm nearing retirement. I would prefer the younger generation remain solvent because they're either paying my social security or investing in the market which keeps my 401K afloat. My financial well-being is tied to theirs.
  #204  
Old 05-11-2020, 07:24 PM
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[1] Dead customers notwithstanding, [2] businesses that open up sooner have a huge economic advantage over ones that open later. They get a head start. [3] Who decides who gets to open first? [4] How do you prevent businesses from all reopening at the same time, given the defiance shown in the Mother’s Day example?
My numbering.

1) Dead customers don't buy stuff.

2) Businesses opening early can be shut-down quickly. A couple of nearby bars tried that. Sheriff yellow-taped their doors; liquor licenses were pulled; they're gone now.

3) State and local health officials decide. Our county will reopen when the health chief says it's safe. I trust her and apparently the county supervisors and cities do too.

4) Mass-openings can result in mass shut-downs if officials are vigilant. If not, expect infection and death rates to spike and more economic misery to ensue.

Defying safe distancing is iffy. Many in my rural (R) county of ~40k non-prisoners don't emerge safely in public but many more do. So far: 8 cases, 7 recoveries, and 0 deaths. But under 500 test results are in so we don't fucking know the infection rate. Our low numbers don't immunize us from a breakout - following guidelines PREVENTS breakouts. Ounce of prevention vs pound of cure, etc.
  #205  
Old 05-11-2020, 07:27 PM
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I dream of the motherfucking toilet paper. We didn't horde, two packages we ordered by mail in early April are still delayed, and it can't be bought by curbside pickup at our groceries. That'll learn me to trust supply chains.
I shop after 5pm just to see how well stocked the stores are. I've been seeing toilet paper for weeks. Almost bought some but resisted the urge.

You should be able to buy some in-store in the early hours.
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Old 05-11-2020, 09:18 PM
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Thanks. I won't be going into stores any time soon. I had a bad, intractable dry cough that exacerbated my asthma from the beginning of October through the beginning of April, and with my reduced lung capacity from stray radiation treatment, that's enough to keep me self-isolating until it's safer.
  #207  
Old 05-13-2020, 03:41 AM
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Today, the papers here reported that Norway and the Prime Minister has been invited into the "First Movers" group. This is a group of fast-reacting nations that have managed to get virus numbers low. So far the group consits of Australia, Austria, Norway, Greece, Denmark, Israel, Singapore and the Czech Republic but it is expected to grow as more nations get their Covid numbers to low or zero.

Cite (Google translate probably an advantage)

One of the main subject of group discussions is opening up for tourism, travel and trade between nations of "similar risk profiles" i.e. low corona risks. I do speculate that we might be seeing the outlines of post-covid travel and to some degree trade here. One where nations who cannot control their public health simply won't be allowed to participate.
  #208  
Old 05-13-2020, 04:05 AM
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... One of the main subject of group discussions is opening up for tourism, travel and trade between nations of "similar risk profiles" i.e. low corona risks. I do speculate that we might be seeing the outlines of post-covid travel and to some degree trade here. One where nations who cannot control their public health simply won't be allowed to participate.
Australia and New Zealand are talking tentatively about a shared bubble that allows travel and tourism between only those two countries. Both countries have daily new cases in the very low range [about 1-2 dozen per week] and NZ a lot less. There is also discussion of opening up specific Pacific Island countries that have it under control, which would be good as they are otherwise economically very vulnerable.
  #209  
Old 05-13-2020, 05:57 AM
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Having a couple of dozen cases a week in a population the size of New Zealand's does not strike me as a good metric for opening the gates given how contagious this thing is.
  #210  
Old 05-13-2020, 06:17 AM
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Nah, it's the fact that Australia probably won't press it all the way to Covid elimination that should give the New Zealanders pause. If I were them I'd give it a lot more discussing and waiting before mixing it with us. NZ itself has to be one of the safest places on the planet right now
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  #211  
Old 05-13-2020, 06:44 AM
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The EU seems to be getting in on it now. Get the virus beaten low enough, you get to travel. And presumably trade for the more risky items.
  #212  
Old 05-13-2020, 08:20 AM
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This what behavioral economists call signaling. Cruz is signalling that Covid-19 is over. So is Pence by not wearing a mask. So is Trump by having his aides standing close together. So is anyone supporting the maskless crammed together protesters.

You are not going to get social distancing when the leaders say it is bullshit. Where I live, on the other hand, our leaders are serious about it, and people follow the guidelines very well.
It's signalling that they're fine with COVID-19 because they believe it's not impacting the people who vote for them.

That will change. Although COVID-19 is now disproportionately impacting people in large urban centers and mostly people who have to work to keep the lights on, the virus won't stop at any fence. The virus itself is not racist. It kills mostly aging men, and it puts a wide range of other people in the hospital for weeks.

The virus will find its way into suburbia and rural America, and when it does, it's going to require far fewer deaths to have the same local impact because hospitals in these areas have fewer resources.
  #213  
Old 05-13-2020, 08:41 AM
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I can already see that a number of people are terrified at the prospect of coming out of their shells and resuming a fairly normal life, and the disease hasn't even rebounded yet. I think they'll completely freak if it comes to that.

If school resumes normally in August, and I'm thinking it will because the virus world is virtually dormant during the late summer, people are going to be faced with a big decision. If they're terrified of standing in the same room with me with masks on, how are they going to bring themselves to stand in front of a classroom full of children? What happens when somebody coughs or sneezes? Stay tuned.
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  #214  
Old 05-13-2020, 08:46 AM
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https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/...t-15265919.php

The CSU system in California announces that all fall classes will be remotely taught.
  #215  
Old 05-13-2020, 09:04 AM
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The virus will find its way into suburbia and rural America, and when it does, it's going to require far fewer deaths to have the same local impact because hospitals in these areas have fewer resources.
It's already happening. It's just like our ongoing war with Eastasia, the news is being suppressed.
  #216  
Old 05-13-2020, 10:11 AM
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Australia and New Zealand are talking tentatively about a shared bubble that allows travel and tourism between only those two countries. Both countries have daily new cases in the very low range [about 1-2 dozen per week] and NZ a lot less. There is also discussion of opening up specific Pacific Island countries that have it under control, which would be good as they are otherwise economically very vulnerable.
The problem is that even if New Zealand completely eliminates SARS-CoV-2 in its population, their economy is heavily dependent upon tourism. Either they are going to have to completely retool their economy for self-sufficiency (not impossible; they’re a net exporter of food, lumber, wool, and warrior princesses, but they are light on manufacturing, heavy industry, and are a net importer of petroleum) or they are going to have to reopen and accept a certain level contagion.

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The virus will find its way into suburbia and rural America, and when it does, it's going to require far fewer deaths to have the same local impact because hospitals in these areas have fewer resources.
Not only do rural hospitals have much fewer resources but many rural health systems are already collapsing with hospitals and urgent care centers closing. And rural areas are demographically skewed toward older populations with higher incidences of underlying conditions.

VOX: “The coronavirus may hit rural America later — and harder”


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If school resumes normally in August, and I'm thinking it will because the virus world is virtually dormant during the late summer,
This just isn’t true. Certain pathogens like seasonal influenza are less prone to spread in hot weather for a number of different reasons but “the virus world” (an area of ecology that we have only begun to catalogue and characterize) is quite active in all conditions in which humans can comfortably exist and beyond. Viruses are quite robust in terrestrial conditions and the seasonality of contagion is more dependent upon the specific pathogenesis and behaviors in the host population. Despite the political promotion of the idea that the COVID-19 pandemic will subside over summer, no virologist or epidemiologist is saying this because this is a novel virus and we don’t know how it behaves but it does seem to be spreading just fine in tropical and subtropical counties as does the related MERS-CoV virus and many other betacoronaviruses.

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  #217  
Old 05-13-2020, 10:52 AM
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You shouldn't expect rural America to be hit anywhere near as bad as big cities, simply because the population density won't support mass transmission.

When I lived on the farm, we only even saw other people once or twice a week, when we visited neighbors or went into town for supplies. And then we'd interact with someone at the gas station, a couple of clerks at the grocery and hardware stores, then it was back to the farm.

I would expect some outbreaks at churches, however. Singing side by side in pews is a recipe for disaster. But even then, because the parishioners will go home to their farms and get sick there, the spread should be more limited. Not zero, but nothing like the spread caused by, say, the New York subway system.
  #218  
Old 05-13-2020, 11:21 AM
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I wouldn't expect the infection rate to be super high in a rural locality, but I would expect rural hospitals to be more vulnerable to collaspe than urban hospitals.

Rural inhabitats are also more likely to have the risk factors linked with symptom severity than urban dwellers.
  #219  
Old 05-13-2020, 11:22 AM
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...Rural inhabitats are also more likely to have the risk factors linked with symptom severity than urban dwellers.
Interesting. What are you thinking those would be?
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  #220  
Old 05-13-2020, 12:01 PM
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Interesting. What are you thinking those would be?
Age, if nothing else. Rural counties have 18% of their population over 65; cities have only 13%. Diabetes is also significantly more common. They also have less access to doctors and more poverty.

Last edited by Manda JO; 05-13-2020 at 12:01 PM.
  #221  
Old 05-13-2020, 12:01 PM
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Interestin. What are you thinking those would be?
Age is the biggest one. The poverty rate is also higher among rural populations, and poverty is correlated with poor health outcomes. There is more obesity among rural populations than urban. More diabetes and higher rates of smoking too.

Multigenerational households are more common among poor households than well-to-do ones. I think it is reasonable to surmise that multigenerational households are more common in rural areas than urban. One hypothesis for the heavy death toll in Italy compared to other places is that elderly Italians are more likely to live under the same roof as their viral-particle-shedding grandkids. We're being told to avoid elderly folks as much as possible, but what do you do if one of your housemates is elderly? There isn't much you can do.
  #222  
Old 05-13-2020, 02:13 PM
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It's signalling that they're fine with COVID-19 because they believe it's not impacting the people who vote for them.

That will change. Although COVID-19 is now disproportionately impacting people in large urban centers and mostly people who have to work to keep the lights on, the virus won't stop at any fence. The virus itself is not racist. It kills mostly aging men, and it puts a wide range of other people in the hospital for weeks.

The virus will find its way into suburbia and rural America, and when it does, it's going to require far fewer deaths to have the same local impact because hospitals in these areas have fewer resources.
You are not understanding the concept of signaling. The average person, unsure of the facts, checks to see what leaders say and do - especially do. Someone saying follow the rules and then not following the rules signals that the rules are worthless. Why they do this is unimportant, what is important is that they are doing (or not doing) it.
Basically why "do what I say, not what I do" seldom works.
  #223  
Old 05-13-2020, 02:37 PM
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It's signalling that they're fine with COVID-19 because they believe it's not impacting the people who vote for them.

That will change. Although COVID-19 is now disproportionately impacting people in large urban centers and mostly people who have to work to keep the lights on, the virus won't stop at any fence. The virus itself is not racist. It kills mostly aging men, and it puts a wide range of other people in the hospital for weeks.

The virus will find its way into suburbia and rural America, and when it does, it's going to require far fewer deaths to have the same local impact because hospitals in these areas have fewer resources.
I’ve been making this point for a while now. New York made it through because they have a huge and robust hospital system.

What happens if 30 seriously sick people show up at a rural hospital with 1 ventilator and 5 ICU beds? I guess they’d try to transfer them, but what if all the other rural hospitals in the state were full, if not overwhelmed. You aren’t going to need the NYC level of cases to encounter serious problems.

Outbreaks in more rural areas also have outsized impacts on the supply chain, as we are already seeing. There are lot of professional service businesses located in urban areas as well as businesses (retail, food, healthcare) that support the local population. But what urban areas tend not to have is large nation industrial and manufacturing concerns and outbreaks in those areas make the supply chain more vulnerable.

I’m actually in favor of lifting some of the restrictions responsibly. I’m OK with hairdressers and retail stores reopening with distancing and masking. I feel that the definition of essential service needs to expand as lockdown times increase. I’m OK with going 6 days or 6 weeks without being able to get haircut, replace a broken small appliance or buy some new pants that fit my lockdown expanded butt. But 6 months, not so much.

What I find irresponsible is the people refusing to adhere to basic and easy masking and distancing protocols because freedom. The argument that rural areas are less vulnerable falls apart if the residents of these areas start traveling around the country attending a large protest rally with no distancing and masking a few times a week.
  #224  
Old 05-13-2020, 02:56 PM
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Washington Post: “As some countries ease up, others are reimposing lockdowns amid a resurgence of coronavirus infections”

Of particular note:
The latest cluster in Wuhan demonstrates how hard it will be to measure whether any location is truly free of coronavirus. The new cases there suggest the virus can flare up in patients up to 50 days after they have apparently recovered, said Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, in an interview with state broadcaster CCTV.

“The course of disease could last 30 to 50 days for some patients,” Wu said. “The virus could take longer to manifest itself in patients with weak immunity, who are also prone to ‘ons’ and ‘offs’ of symptoms.”
In rural areas with lower population densities it may take longer for the contagion to get a solid foothold and infect a large enough population to witness geometric growth but absent of physical distancing and isolation measures it will develop at a comparable rate. And while it is true that some people in rural areas are truly isolated, most of what is considered ‘rural’ are actually towns of less than a few thousand people who often interact. The demographics of rural populations are notably older, often with poorer nutrition and overall health, often with high rates of underlying conditions such as hypertension, and typically with little access to preventative or emergency health care.

If there are even a small percentage of people who can express and shed the virus for weeks, it is enough to ensure sustained transmission through such populations, and between the cofactors making them more susceptible and lack of critical care facilities we can expect to see case fatality rates rising to the high end of the range. This is not just an ‘urban disease’ like cholera or typhus that requires high population density and lapses in sanitation to maintain spread; even brief non-contact exposure to an infected, often asymptomatic person have been evidenced as sufficient to transmit the virus.

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  #225  
Old 05-13-2020, 03:01 PM
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What I find irresponsible is the people refusing to adhere to basic and easy masking and distancing protocols because freedom. The argument that rural areas are less vulnerable falls apart if the residents of these areas start traveling around the country attending a large protest rally with no distancing and masking a few times a week.
And it doesn’t take a large number of people to spread this. Just a single person bringing the contagion back to their town or neighborhood and then going to a community gathering could be enough to nucleate an infection node. And to be clear, in absence of a vaccine this is going to happen sooner or later, but if it happens at many communities all at once the already undersupported and fragile regional health care systems are going to be quickly overwhelmed.

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  #226  
Old 05-13-2020, 03:23 PM
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Nm -the board is haunted and posted a duplicate long after my post

Last edited by Ann Hedonia; 05-13-2020 at 03:28 PM.
  #227  
Old 05-13-2020, 03:25 PM
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In the US, we haven't actually experienced a lockdown. I hope these folks stop endangering us with protests that might cause more stringent measures.
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Old 05-13-2020, 04:05 PM
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And it doesn’t take a large number of people to spread this. Just a single person bringing the contagion back to their town or neighborhood and then going to a community gathering could be enough to nucleate an infection node. {...}
Ya mean like,
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{...} we {...} went into town for supplies. And then we'd interact with someone at the gas station, a couple of clerks at the grocery and hardware stores {...}
Nah, rural folk are protected from this because of their . . . yeah, I got nothing.

CMC fnord!
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Old 05-13-2020, 07:04 PM
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And it doesn’t take a large number of people to spread this. Just a single person bringing the contagion back to their town or neighborhood and then going to a community gathering could be enough to nucleate an infection node. And to be clear, in absence of a vaccine this is going to happen sooner or later, but if it happens at many communities all at once the already undersupported and fragile regional health care systems are going to be quickly overwhelmed.

Stranger
I see you're back in the prediction business. Isn't this at least the second time now you have spelled the end for these folk? Wasn't it a month or more ago that hospital receptionists 'everywhere' were going to be dropping dead from this?
  #230  
Old 05-13-2020, 07:10 PM
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Age, if nothing else. Rural counties have 18% of their population over 65; cities have only 13%. Diabetes is also significantly more common. They also have less access to doctors and more poverty.
Not all rural states are poverty striken. New Hampshire is very rural and one of the wealthiest states in the country. Other states in the top 20 by median household income are also rural too, particularly in the northeast and great plains regions.
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Old 05-13-2020, 07:13 PM
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It depends on if the conservative message that this is mainly an "urban" or immigrant issue keeps gaining momentum. If it remains successful then the reaction will be gleeful to indifferent.
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Old 05-13-2020, 08:07 PM
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while it is true that some people in rural areas are truly isolated, most of what is considered ‘rural’ are actually towns of less than a few thousand people who often interact.
True.

I live in such a town, several miles outside the nearest village. My nearest neighbor's house is something over 700 feet away from mine; some in this area are further than that from their nearest neighbor. But in anything remotely resembling normal times, nobody or next to nobody stays home all the time and never interacts with anybody; or even interacts with only a few people. Children go to school, visit each other's houses, visit their grandparents and aunts and uncles. Everybody goes to the grocery store. Many people go to church. Many people go to sports events and shows put on at the school, to car races, to county fairs. Many people go to meetings, on one subject or another. People go to the movies, and yard saleing, and to the library. People have family reunions, and neighborhood parties, and Fourth of July parties, and so on. Just about every town has at least one festival, and many people go to festivals in more than one town. People go to bars, and restaurants, and over to the winery to hear a band, and to fundraising dinners.

And it's not an isolated clump of those who only see each other. People go away to college, or to one city or another, sometimes out of state, sometimes even out of country, to visit someone, or for entertainment, or for work, or to go shopping; and they come back home. And then there's the tourists . . .
  #233  
Old 05-13-2020, 08:30 PM
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Too late to edit, but to clarify: That's not what we're doing now; most businesses are still closed, and most people are being pretty careful about distancing. But the point is that just living in a rural area isn't going to somehow protect us.
  #234  
Old 05-13-2020, 08:32 PM
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I see you're back in the prediction business. Isn't this at least the second time now you have spelled the end for these folk? Wasn't it a month or more ago that hospital receptionists 'everywhere' were going to be dropping dead from this?
?

I read a very appropriate "if" in there and with that if there is very little in doubt about what was said. Influenza often nearly swamps many rural health systems and something that hits more of the population and makes them sicker than it does would, if hitting many of them at the same time, be overwhelming no question. If.
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Old 05-14-2020, 11:24 AM
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To get back to the original question, How will people react if Covid-19 flares up when the lockdown ends? I'm thinking of an experience I had in the early 80s living in the Bay Area. There was a fad there* lasting about three months of "investors clubs." The club members did no actual investing or selling of anything; they paid a fee to join and those fees were then distributed to those who had joined earlier. It was a classic Ponzi scheme except that it was a bunch of little ones instead of one big one with a central fraudster.

The county DA denounced them as such and his office and the police did their best to stamp them out when they were discovered. Nobody actually went to prison, so far as I know, but lists were seized and the remaining assets were returned, as far as they went.

People were whinging about how "The Man" doesn't want us to be rich and otherwise complaining that their freedoms were being infringed upon and new clubs kept springing up like mushrooms. Inevitably when the clubs began collapsing -- even the ones that had escaped detection -- their tune changed to, "Nobody told us this would happen," and "why didn't you protect us?"

I'm thinking we'll have the same thing here, only involving dead people instead of just money.

*It might have been a national phenomenon but I recall only local news stories.
  #236  
Old 05-14-2020, 11:43 AM
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You are not understanding the concept of signaling. The average person, unsure of the facts, checks to see what leaders say and do - especially do. Someone saying follow the rules and then not following the rules signals that the rules are worthless. Why they do this is unimportant, what is important is that they are doing (or not doing) it.
Basically why "do what I say, not what I do" seldom works.
If you, as the leader, follow all the rules and procedures, will your employees do so as well? Maybe, maybe not.

If you, as the leader, do not follow the rules and procedures, will your employees? Hell no.


As regards to the OP, I would change out that IF for a when. If we could be even slightly responsible about things, then we could probably lift many restrictions and get back to 80% of normalcy. People being irresponsible is going to cause all of us to have to endure much heavier restrictions than we would otherwise.

Yesterday, I saw some church group marching down the street, all clustered together and not a single one wearing a mask, probably about 30 ish people. I've seen them before, so this wasn't some sort of lockdown protest specifically, but in this time, any time you are not following CDC recommendations and state guidelines, you are making a statement.

When we have a flare up around here, I know who I will be blaming.
  #237  
Old 05-14-2020, 01:01 PM
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...People were whinging about how "The Man" doesn't want us to be rich and otherwise complaining that their freedoms were being infringed upon and new clubs kept springing up like mushrooms. Inevitably when the clubs began collapsing -- even the ones that had escaped detection -- their tune changed to, "Nobody told us this would happen," and "why didn't you protect us?"
....
Said the people with bleeding faces who joined the Club for People Who Get Their Faces Eaten by Leopards.
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  #238  
Old 05-14-2020, 03:46 PM
Embraceable Ewe is offline
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Due to shortages, most masks have only an "altruistic" function


People repeatedly say that relaxing distancing will only impact those who freely choose to take more risks. That's not the case in many areas. I'm in a state with pretty strict lockdown rules, but you cannot buy truly protective masks either online or in stores. Most people are wearing makeshift face coverings like bandanas. These may help protect you from being arrested if you hold up a convenience store, but they do very little to protect the wearer from an infected person coughing in their face. When wearing a mask only protects others,the incentive to wear one is low, particularly for people who don't think they are at high risk of death from this.

I'd be much more sanguine about opening up businesses again if I could get real PPE, such as an N95 mask and hand sanitizer. I cannot buy either of these things in stores or online right now. I cannot even buy isopropyl alcohol.

My primary care physician cannot get masks for the other doctors and staff. They have one masked worker screening patients in the parking lot and sending anyone who might have covid to go to directly to the hospital.

The result is that, even if the state opened up every business tomorrow, I won't feel safe going into stores. Worse yet for the economy, I suspect I am in a group of people who have discovered during lockdown that a lot of the shopping I used to do was more for fun than for function. I'm probably going to buy less stuff generally going forward.

Those who think the US death rate for covid is similar to that of flu fail to account for the deliberate undercounting of cases. The shortage of testing is not simply due to incompetence, it was done because the selfish minds at the White House felt that the health of the stock market was more important than tens of thousands of human lives.
  #239  
Old 05-14-2020, 05:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Embraceable Ewe View Post
People repeatedly say that relaxing distancing will only impact those who freely choose to take more risks. That's not the case in many areas. I'm in a state with pretty strict lockdown rules, but you cannot buy truly protective masks either online or in stores. Most people are wearing makeshift face coverings like bandanas. These may help protect you from being arrested if you hold up a convenience store, but they do very little to protect the wearer from an infected person coughing in their face. When wearing a mask only protects others,the incentive to wear one is low, particularly for people who don't think they are at high risk of death from this.
Welcome to the Dope!
It is surprising how many people don't get this. But wearing masks does have an additional benefit - it is a reminder to social distance, perhaps even for those who are too rude to wear masks.
  #240  
Old 05-14-2020, 06:00 PM
Stranger On A Train is offline
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Originally Posted by Voyager View Post
It is surprising how many people don't get this. But wearing masks does have an additional benefit - it is a reminder to social distance, perhaps even for those who are too rude to wear masks.
That is a primary value; it signals who is taking this seriously and who is not. I don’t have much faith in woven fabric face coverings in preventing aerosol emission of the virus, but if I see someone wearing one properly, e.g. not with their nose poking out or loose around their neck then at least I know they have heard and probably understood the need for physical distance (which is more important), and that they are probably not going to get offended and physically attack if reminded of the need for distance. I wish there were more reinforcement of proper mask wearing and he need for hand/face sanitation but at least I can weed out the aware from the ignorant and assholes.

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