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  #151  
Old 02-27-2020, 08:43 AM
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Getting re-infected with a modified strain of can make you very sick indeed. You get an immune reaction, but it doesn't kill the virus, so you get a massive self-destructive non-limiting immune reaction to go along with the viral effects.
....
This makes no sense to me and is nothing Iíve ever heard about. Maybe you are confused about cytokine storm? A different thing.

In general re-infection due to waning immunity or variant strain leads to milder infections than the primary infections.
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  #152  
Old 02-27-2020, 12:17 PM
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In general re-infection due to waning immunity or variant strain leads to milder infections than the primary infections.
As I understand it ... in a very small percentage people, their immune systems don't quite "remember" the viral infection it just fought off. And so, some tiny number of people can get any given viral infection two or more times -- same strain of flu, mononucleosis, etc. It doesn't necessarily follow that failure to pick up lifetime immunity after exposure to, say, H1N1 means that you'll fail to get immunity after mono, COVID-19, etc.

In short -- human immune systems, as a collective, are very effective. On the individual level ... they can be imperfect to varying degrees.
  #153  
Old 02-27-2020, 02:11 PM
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North Korea has reportedly executed an official who broke quarantine.
  #154  
Old 02-27-2020, 05:24 PM
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How disruptive will this be?
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  #155  
Old 02-27-2020, 05:38 PM
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Interesting to compare the numbers tested and the numbers of cases found by some of the leading countries...

UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate). Source
Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 470 positive (5.0% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown. Source
France: 762 tests, of which 17 positive (2.2% positivity rate), 179 awaiting results. Source
Austria: 321 tests, of which 2 positive (0.6% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown. Source
United States: 445 concluded tests, of which 14 positive (3.1% positivity rate). Source

Of course some countries are testing more randomly than others so the positivity rate should not be used as a measure of infected people.

Last edited by Fiendish Astronaut; 02-27-2020 at 05:42 PM.
  #156  
Old 02-27-2020, 09:24 PM
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Japan is closing its schools, elementary through high school, until the end of March. Their school year starts on April 1st.

I ha e friends who are scrambling to figure out what to do with their young kids.
  #157  
Old 02-27-2020, 11:27 PM
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My employer has said, "no big deal, our employees can work from home". But my boss has little kids. If the schools are closed, there's no way he's working effectively at home.
  #158  
Old 02-27-2020, 11:33 PM
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  #159  
Old 02-28-2020, 12:33 AM
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It looks like the schools open April 8, spots a long time. My friends are scrambling to find daughter care and there aren’t any good options
  #160  
Old 02-28-2020, 05:24 AM
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As I understand it ... in a very small percentage people, their immune systems don't quite "remember" the viral infection it just fought off. And so, some tiny number of people can get any given viral infection two or more times -- same strain of flu, mononucleosis, etc. It doesn't necessarily follow that failure to pick up lifetime immunity after exposure to, say, H1N1 means that you'll fail to get immunity after mono, COVID-19, etc.

In short -- human immune systems, as a collective, are very effective. On the individual level ... they can be imperfect to varying degrees.
It's a characteristic of Dengue, which is a highly variable virus with 4 common serotypes, each of multiple genotypes.

My ignorance of this area is why I've been asking questions related to that.
  #161  
Old 02-28-2020, 05:33 AM
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I've just picked up a cold. Headache and a cough - staying at home today. 99% it's not COVID-19 but can't help but wonder. No fever though...
  #162  
Old 02-28-2020, 08:05 AM
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Nigeria confirms their first COVID-19 infection.
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The health commissioner for Lagos, Africa’s largest city with more than 20 million people, said an Italian citizen who entered Nigeria on Tuesday from Milan on a business trip fell ill the next day. Commissioner Akin Abayomi said the man was clinically stable with no serious symptoms.

Abayomi said officials were working to identify all of the man’s contacts in Nigeria. The Italian had traveled on Turkish Airlines to Istanbul and then to Lagos, according to health authorities. Lagos state early this month advised people arriving from virus-affected areas to observe 14 days of self-quarantine.

“I have seen him this morning, he is in high spirits,” said Dr. Bowale Abimbola, medical director of the hospital where the 44-year-old Italian was brought with body aches and fever. “He is doing well and we expect that he will continue to do well.”
  #163  
Old 02-28-2020, 08:13 AM
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Iran has real problems:
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The outbreak of the new virus in Iran has been dramatic ó the head of Iranís task force to stop the illness, known as COVID-19, was seen coughing, sweating and wheezing across televised interviews before acknowledging he was infected. Then, days later, a visibly pale official sat only meters (feet) away from President Hassan Rouhani and other top leaders before she too reportedly came down with the virus.
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On Friday, Health Ministry spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour again reported a huge spike in cases, saying there were now 388 confirmed coronavirus cases in Iran and 34 deaths. In brief remarks from Tehran, he cautioned the number of cases would likely further spike as Iran now has 15 laboratories testing samples.

In Tehran and other cities, authorities canceled Friday prayer services to limit crowds. In the capital, Radio Tehran that typically carries the prayer played only traditional Iranian music. Universities are to remain closed another week. Schools will be closed for at least three days, Namaki said.
It is quite possible that ALL of the leadership of Iran is infected and that they passed that infection on for days unknowingly.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 02-28-2020 at 08:14 AM.
  #164  
Old 02-28-2020, 03:02 PM
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Mexico confirms first 2 cases of COVID-19.

One in Mexico City and one up north in the state of Sinaloa.
  #165  
Old 02-28-2020, 03:31 PM
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Our favorite graph (said in the same sense as our favorite president), has begun the upward turn we feared.

I'm talking about the yellow line in the graph on the lower right hand side of my link. I couldn't link to just the graph.
  #166  
Old 02-28-2020, 04:13 PM
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Abayomi said officials were working to identify all of the manís contacts in Nigeria. The Italian had traveled on Turkish Airlines to Istanbul and then to Lagos, according to health authorities. Lagos state early this month advised people arriving from virus-affected areas to observe 14 days of self-quarantine.
So... we can expect a report of cases in Istanbul sometime during the next two weeks?...
  #167  
Old 02-28-2020, 07:43 PM
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Agency: 2nd US case of person who got virus from community:
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Health officials have confirmed the second case of novel coronavirus in the United States believed to have been transmitted to a person who didn’t travel internationally or come in close contact with anyone who had it.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday that officials are “aware of a second possible instance of community spread of COVID-19 in California.” The CDC said in a statement that the patient has tested positive for the virus and is considered a presumptive positive case.

Health officials in San Jose said the patient was an older adult woman with chronic health conditions who does not have a travel history or any known contact with a traveler or infected person. It comes a day after state officials said a woman hospitalized at UC Davis Health Center in Sacramento had contracted the illness after no known contact.

“This new case indicates that there is evidence of community transmission, but the extent is still not clear,” said Dr. Sara Cody, Health Officer for Santa Clara County and Director of the County of Santa Clara Public Health Department.
  #168  
Old 02-28-2020, 10:33 PM
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  #169  
Old 02-28-2020, 10:53 PM
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Oregon now has an unexplained case. The person works at a school in the Portland area and was showing symptoms for over a week before they were diagnosed. So it's probably already widespread here.
  #170  
Old 02-28-2020, 11:05 PM
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Not surprised at all about the Oregon case. This is going to be all over the country in a couple-three weeks. I just hope we can survive the panic.
  #171  
Old 02-29-2020, 12:55 AM
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Not surprised at all about the Oregon case. This is going to be all over the country in a couple-three weeks. I just hope we can survive the panic.
I live in Virginia where no cases have occurred. I work in a grocery store. All our hand sanitizer has been wiped out. Shelves emptied. Medical masks and gloves are gone too.

Am I wrong to worry about how this panic is going to unfold? It really worries me more than the virus.
  #172  
Old 02-29-2020, 01:01 AM
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Add Washington state to the list.
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Health officials in California, Oregon and Washington state worried about the novel coronavirus spreading through West Coast communities after confirming three patients were infected by unknown means.

The patients — an older Northern California woman with chronic health conditions, a high school student in Everett, Washington and an employee at a Portland, Oregon-area school — hadn’t recently traveled overseas or had any known close contact with a traveler or an infected person, authorities said.
  #173  
Old 02-29-2020, 02:28 AM
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Am I wrong to worry about how this panic is going to unfold? It really worries me more than the virus.
Well, I'm here in the north of Italy. My city is not under quarantine, but they closed schools, universities and public gatherings. Basically, the first few days there was a lot of panicking, empty supermarkets, black market masks at hundreds of euros, people not daring to get out of their houses etc. After about a week people are seeing that the apocalypse isn't forthcoming, so some are now going too far in the opposite direction saying "oh, it was all made up by the media". But mostly, people are trying to get back to resuming their normal activities. 🤔So from what I'm seeing here, there was panic, but people calmed down fairly quickly.
  #174  
Old 02-29-2020, 10:36 AM
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I live in Virginia where no cases have occurred. I work in a grocery store. All our hand sanitizer has been wiped out. Shelves emptied. Medical masks and gloves are gone too.
It's good that some people are getting their panicking in early. Ya know, avoiding the last minute rush.
  #175  
Old 02-29-2020, 10:38 AM
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I live in Virginia where no cases have occurred. I work in a grocery store. All our hand sanitizer has been wiped out. Shelves emptied. Medical masks and gloves are gone too.



Am I wrong to worry about how this panic is going to unfold? It really worries me more than the virus.


Come on down to NC. I was just in Costco (in Winston Salem) this morning and it was fully stocked with a huge display of latex gloves. Didn’t see any masks but I wasn’t looking for them. I bought a few canned goods while I was there. I did notice my regular grocery store was out of large size hand sanitizer though.


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  #176  
Old 02-29-2020, 10:47 AM
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Come on down to NC. I was just in Costco (in Winston Salem) this morning and it was fully stocked with a huge display of latex gloves. Didnít see any masks but I wasnít looking for them. I bought a few canned goods while I was there. I did notice my regular grocery store was out of large size hand sanitizer though.


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My brother lives in Winston (Clemmons) so I am glad to know he will be able to get supplies before the End Times.
  #177  
Old 02-29-2020, 11:27 AM
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Every time I go shopping I'm stocking up a tiny bit with non-perishables in case I have to shelter in place or quarantine myself, but I'm not freaking out about it and am only getting stuff I'd use anyway.
  #178  
Old 02-29-2020, 12:08 PM
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Here's some news: A dog in Hong Kong tests positive for the coronavirus, WHO officials confirm.
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A dog in Hong Kong has tested positive for the COVID-19 virus thatís killed at least 2,859 humans across the world over the last two months, World Health Organization officials said Friday.

Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, the technical lead of WHOís emergencies program, said the canine tested ďweakly positive,Ē meaning low levels of the virus were found.

Hong Kong scientists arenít sure if the dog is actually infected or if it picked up the virus from a contaminated surface, she said.
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The dog reportedly belongs to a 60-year-old woman who developed symptoms on Feb. 12 and later tested positive, according to The Wall Street Journal. Hong Kongís Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department said the dog doesnít have any symptoms. Swabs of its nasal and oral cavities tested ďweak positive,Ē it said in a statement Friday. The dog is under quarantine at a facility at a port in Hong Kong and will be returned to the owner once it tests negative for the virus, according to the agency.
Also, Trump will address the nation in about 23 minutes regarding COVID-19.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 02-29-2020 at 12:09 PM.
  #179  
Old 02-29-2020, 01:01 PM
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First death from coronavirus in the United States confirmed in Washington state

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(CNN) - A patient infected with the novel coronavirus in Washington state has died, a state health official said Saturday, marking the first death due to the virus in the United States.

Further details about the patient in King County were not immediately available. A news conference is scheduled for 1 p.m. local time (4 p.m. ET), Jamie Nixon of the state Health Department said.
  #180  
Old 02-29-2020, 02:24 PM
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They're telling us to stock up on prescriptions. In what pharmacy can you just order more prescriptions before you're due for refills?
  #181  
Old 02-29-2020, 02:39 PM
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My pharmacist will refill before the due date if I ask her to. We just did this to try and get all my prescriptions to refill at the same time, in fact. She just told me "it's not a bad thing to have extra in case you go out of town or drop a pill bottle or something."
  #182  
Old 02-29-2020, 03:17 PM
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My pharmacy will allow me to refill, but my insurance won’t pay for it. Luckily, my medication is affordable to me without the insurance, so I went ahead and stocked up. If you can afford to, see if you can bypass your insurance carrier.


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  #183  
Old 02-29-2020, 05:09 PM
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I live in Virginia where no cases have occurred. I work in a grocery store. All our hand sanitizer has been wiped out. Shelves emptied. Medical masks and gloves are gone too.
Same. All of ours was gone by 10 am today. They found some more in the back around 1pm and restocked.

It occurs to me I have no idea where our hand sanitizers are sourced from - would it be ironic if it was China?
  #184  
Old 02-29-2020, 05:49 PM
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Stock up on soap instead!


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  #185  
Old 02-29-2020, 06:45 PM
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MrsRico and I, in our low 70s, spent a week on California's central coast, including a full day at the very-jammed Monterey Bay Aquarium. No cases are reported in the area though we were close to international travelers. (Ed Ricketts' lab next door is a trip!) We seem to have mild flu but no sweating or other major CoViD-19 symptoms. Back home now, our rural county east of Sacramento seems unlikely to panic - but the county seat's WalMart has been stripped of masks, gloves, sanitizers, and OTC remedies. They said they'd restock today. I didn't check other pharmacies in town.

We had work scheduled in the Sacramento area a couple weeks out. We moved that forward to 3 days from now because we've no idea if panic will spread and services close. We won't assume ANYTHING is fixed time-wise until... until it's over? Till the pandemic burns out? When will metropolitan California start shutting down?
  #186  
Old 02-29-2020, 07:50 PM
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My pharmacy will allow me to refill, but my insurance wonít pay for it. Luckily, my medication is affordable to me without the insurance, so I went ahead and stocked up. If you can afford to, see if you can bypass your insurance carrier.


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You could ask your doctor to write another prescription.

I guess I'm a hoarder. When I started taking estrogen I had two different prescriptions for a while as i experimented with doses. I just kept filling both of them. It's easy to cut the drugs to get the right amount from the "wrong" prescription. (I actually did this under my doctor's advise at first to try to find the best dose.) So I've been using the oldest stuff first, and maintaining a few months of stock in my cupboard.

Maybe I should get some extra guifenesin? That comes in small bottles considering the usual dose. I feel like I have decent stock of all the other drugs I take when I catch a cold. Maybe I should also stock some extra herbal tea. If I'm stuck at home that would be nice to have.
  #187  
Old 02-29-2020, 07:52 PM
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Oh, but what I meant to stress was that my prescription drug insurance happily paid for two different prescriptions of the same medicine, through several refills. Yeah, I was a little surprised.
  #188  
Old 02-29-2020, 08:07 PM
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Okay, serious question: what is the fearsome thing about this virus? Is it lethality? Severity of symptoms? Virility? What I’ve read about it doesn’t really make it clear to me, especially since I really been concerned about it, and I don’t want to get myself paranoid.

What I guess I’m wondering is whether this thing really deserves the kind of media coverage and paranoia it seems to be engendering. I don’t particularly want to hunker down in a bunker or something or get all hypochondriac, not unless there’s an actual reason for it.
  #189  
Old 02-29-2020, 08:10 PM
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This now-four-page thread is filled with the latest information that anyone had at the time they posted. Have you read the thread, Leaper? Or do you just want other people to read it to you?

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 02-29-2020 at 08:11 PM.
  #190  
Old 02-29-2020, 08:21 PM
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I already did, and I still don’t get it. It seems like a good majority of this thread is about who has it and how people are reacting, and that doesn’t tell me why they’re reacting that way. I’ve been treating this as another media-driven all-for-nothing hype fest. Like, I know bird flu and Ebola were serious diseases, but in retrospect, they didn’t deserve the panic they caused, especially in the media. The government reactions to this are the only thing that make me think it might not be the same thing all over again. Yeah, it’s spreading, and it’s killed some people; that sounds like flu season to me, and I know it’s not exactly the same, but nobody panics this much over a lot of other illnesses, and everything I’ve read just seems to assume you’re already panicked about it.

Businesses are cancelling activities and governments are treating this like plague, and what I’ve read so far hasn’t shown me this isn’t some kind of massive panicky overreaction. That’s what I feel like I’m missing. Should I actually be buying out masks and avoiding Chinese people or what? (Not really, but that’s another reason why it struck me as hype for nothing.)
  #191  
Old 02-29-2020, 08:25 PM
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I’ve been treating this as another media-driven all-for-nothing hype fest.


Sure. The government of China just quarantined nearly 100 million people for 4+ weeks for no good reason. They just tanked their economy for no good reason. 3,000+ people are dead from a virus that's no big deal. 85,000+ people are not really ill at all.



Do you think we're holding back the real info and just providing misleading tidbits as a joke?

If all the information in this thread and at all the links provided isn't enough for you to understand what's going on, I humbly submit that you prolly need more help in this than you'll find on the Straight Dope Message Board.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 02-29-2020 at 08:26 PM.
  #192  
Old 02-29-2020, 08:48 PM
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Okay, serious question: what is the fearsome thing about this virus? Is it lethality? Severity of symptoms? Virility? What Iíve read about it doesnít really make it clear to me, especially since I really been concerned about it, and I donít want to get myself paranoid.

What I guess Iím wondering is whether this thing really deserves the kind of media coverage and paranoia it seems to be engendering. I donít particularly want to hunker down in a bunker or something or get all hypochondriac, not unless thereís an actual reason for it.
I'm not hunkering down in a bunker or something, but I am trying to get myself prepared. Personally I am not worried about dying. I am worried about being so sick that I want to die. I live alone. The last time I was sick enough to be driven to bed for multiple days, I had a roommate who--despite being sick herself--was able to care for me. We both had the flu, and it was an awful experience. So I'm not looking forward to going through days, potentially weeks of debilitating flu-like illness all by myself, and possibly being unable to get medical care because everyone and their mama is in the ER.

I am also concerned because I have two elderly parents who are indifferent about their health. I called my mother up a couple of days ago and asked if they had enough food and supplies in the house just in case the city is shut down. Or just in case they both fall ill and don't have the strength to get to the store. My mother just chuckled. Alrighty then, I thought to myself. I guess if the worst happens, it happens. But I really hope it doesn't. They live far away from me, so if they wind up getting sick right around the same time that I do, I may not be much help to them.
  #193  
Old 02-29-2020, 09:06 PM
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just in case the city is shut down.
This is the kind of thing Iím asking about. Talking about cities being shut down. Corporations and government choosing to lose out on millions, if not billions, of dollars. This kind of thing makes me think people believe that this is an apocalypse-level event, and as far as I know, while it may be serious and people are dying, it doesnít seem to be. People are buying stores out of masks and hand sanitizer. What Iím asking is, is this a rational, proportional reaction? Because if it is, I want to know, because that would be far FAR beyond my understanding of the situation.

Others are saying that coronavirus hasnít been more deadly than far more common causes and disease so far. All Iím saying is that by the information Iíve gotten, I donít have any reason to believe the people buying out the stores over them. They may be wrong, but I was saying that just seeing numbers of cases and public reaction are kind of out of context for me. Thatís why I asked what I did: the reactions are making me think this virus is significantly more severe, more deadly, or more easily spread than most diseases, enough for drastic and severe measures to be taken. That wasnít my understanding.

Donít take this personally, Snowboarder Bo. Iím not criticizing you for posting this thread or calling you a fearmonger. If Iím under informed, thatís my fault, not yours.
  #194  
Old 02-29-2020, 09:27 PM
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This is the kind of thing Iím asking about. Talking about cities being shut down. Corporations and government choosing to lose out on millions, if not billions, of dollars. This kind of thing makes me think people believe that this is an apocalypse-level event, and as far as I know, while it may be serious and people are dying, it doesnít seem to be. People are buying stores out of masks and hand sanitizer. What Iím asking is, is this a rational, proportional reaction? Because if it is, I want to know, because that would be far FAR beyond my understanding of the situation.
People are acting like this because countries are shutting down cities to contain the spread of this thing. If there were no quarantines occurring, then yeah, people would bananas for worrying the way they have been. But fear is naturally going to strike people's hearts when they see countries sacrificing their economies to protect public health. If the new coronavirus ain't about nothing, then how do you explain this?

I don't think this is a apocalpytic event, but you better believe I have three weeks of food stocked away just in case people do a run on the stores and supply chains can't refill them fast enough. I'm not responding to hype. I'm just deciding that I'd rather be prepared and be mistaken for a "sheeple" instead of playing it cool and suffering needlessly if the worst should be happen.

Quote:
Others are saying that coronavirus hasnít been more deadly than far more common causes and disease so far. All Iím saying is that by the information Iíve gotten, I donít have any reason to believe the people buying out the stores over them.
I don't know where you are getting your information. All experts seem to be in agreement that this thing is more dangerous than the seasonal flu and also much more contagious. Both of these things make it scarier. Not deserving of a panic response, but certainly extra concern. Especially if you are over the age of 50 and have other medical issues. Which includes a lot of Americans. Including Dopers and their family.

Quote:
They may be wrong, but I was saying that just seeing numbers of cases and public reaction are kind of out of context for me. Thatís why I asked what I did: the reactions are making me think this virus is significantly more severe, more deadly, or more easily spread than most diseases, enough for drastic and severe measures to be taken. That wasnít my understanding.
Since I don't know where you are getting your information, I don't really know what to tell you. I've been keeping tabs of this thing by following the live thread on r/worldnews. There's a lot of doomers who post there, but there is also a shitload of insightful information from all around the world.
  #195  
Old 02-29-2020, 10:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Leaper View Post
This is the kind of thing Iím asking about. Talking about cities being shut down. Corporations and government choosing to lose out on millions, if not billions, of dollars. This kind of thing makes me think people believe that this is an apocalypse-level event, and as far as I know, while it may be serious and people are dying, it doesnít seem to be. People are buying stores out of masks and hand sanitizer. What Iím asking is, is this a rational, proportional reaction? Because if it is, I want to know, because that would be far FAR beyond my understanding of the situation.

Others are saying that coronavirus hasnít been more deadly than far more common causes and disease so far. All Iím saying is that by the information Iíve gotten, I donít have any reason to believe the people buying out the stores over them. They may be wrong, but I was saying that just seeing numbers of cases and public reaction are kind of out of context for me. Thatís why I asked what I did: the reactions are making me think this virus is significantly more severe, more deadly, or more easily spread than most diseases, enough for drastic and severe measures to be taken. That wasnít my understanding.

Donít take this personally, Snowboarder Bo. Iím not criticizing you for posting this thread or calling you a fearmonger. If Iím under informed, thatís my fault, not yours.
I don't take it personally at all. If you're under informed, I doubt it's the fault of this thread. In fact, if you've read the thread, then you're prolly close the same level of informed as everyone else who's read thru the thread.

But you seem to want to discuss your opinion, and this is a Breaking News thread: it's right there in the title. I do find that somewhat frustrating, I admit.

Here; I'll try and help you out again: IMHO thread: How concerned are you about this Coronavirus? Perhaps you'll find the information and conversation you're looking for there.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 02-29-2020 at 10:15 PM.
  #196  
Old 02-29-2020, 11:10 PM
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This is the kind of thing Iím asking about. Talking about cities being shut down. Corporations and government choosing to lose out on millions, if not billions, of dollars. This kind of thing makes me think people believe that this is an apocalypse-level event.....
I think that the biggest goal is to prevent it from being another infection that humans will have to deal with forever, or at least as long as we survive as a species. I donít think anyone is predicting an apocalyptic event. Higher death rates wonít kill off humanity. But measures that individuals, corporations and governments take could lead to local and global supply chain disruptions. For this reason, folks need to be prepared. ThereĒs also the chance of areas of widespread panic around the globe, which could further complicate getting access to supplies that we need. As usual, The Times gives a great up-to-date ďcompare and contrastĒ summary versus the flu....

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/h...gtype=Homepage
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  #197  
Old 02-29-2020, 11:20 PM
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you better believe I have three weeks of food stocked away
Seriously? I mean, you're serious, but that seems extreme to me. If we're at the point you can't buy food, things have devolved entirely worse than your next meal.

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Originally Posted by Jackknifed Juggernaut
folks need to be prepared
In what way? What are you recommending? Stockpiling Spam?
  #198  
Old 02-29-2020, 11:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Leaper View Post
This is the kind of thing Iím asking about. Talking about cities being shut down. Corporations and government choosing to lose out on millions, if not billions, of dollars. This kind of thing makes me think people believe that this is an apocalypse-level event, and as far as I know, while it may be serious and people are dying, it doesnít seem to be. People are buying stores out of masks and hand sanitizer. What Iím asking is, is this a rational, proportional reaction? Because if it is, I want to know, because that would be far FAR beyond my understanding of the situation.

Others are saying that coronavirus hasnít been more deadly than far more common causes and disease so far. All Iím saying is that by the information Iíve gotten, I donít have any reason to believe the people buying out the stores over them. They may be wrong, but I was saying that just seeing numbers of cases and public reaction are kind of out of context for me. Thatís why I asked what I did: the reactions are making me think this virus is significantly more severe, more deadly, or more easily spread than most diseases, enough for drastic and severe measures to be taken. That wasnít my understanding.

Donít take this personally, Snowboarder Bo. Iím not criticizing you for posting this thread or calling you a fearmonger. If Iím under informed, thatís my fault, not yours.
Let's try some context. The 1918 influenza pandemic (aka the Spanish Flu) is estimated to have infected some 500 million people, or nearly a quarter of the global population. The mortality rate was somewhere in the vicinity of 3%, and estimates of total deaths vary significantly - 17 to 55 million. (All numbers taken from wikipedia.)

Multiply all that by 4 to account for the much larger current total global population, drop the mortality rate by about half, and you have some idea of what a worst case outcome for COVID-19 could look like. Now, we're not going to see 100 million deaths - medical science has advanced a bit in the last 100 years, and we don't have most of the world's most prosperous nations dealing with the most destructive war in human history to date. Plus, the mortality patterns of COVID-19 look different from the Spanish Flu, which tended to kill young adults in disproportionate numbers. However, even a small fraction of infection rate of 1918 could result in hundreds of thousands or even millions of deaths.

We won't likely see that, but a significant part of why we won't is because governments are taking it seriously. If they are successful, when this is over many people will pooh-pooh the pandemic as no big deal, and how stupid was it to overreact, etc. Those people don't know their history very well.
  #199  
Old 02-29-2020, 11:49 PM
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I don't think this is a apocalpytic event, but you better believe I have three weeks of food stocked away just in case people do a run on the stores and supply chains can't refill them fast enough. I'm not responding to hype. I'm just deciding that I'd rather be prepared and be mistaken for a "sheeple" instead of playing it cool and suffering needlessly if the worst should be happen.
Three weeks? My very Mormon mother would laugh at such a pittance. She has "followed the prophet" and has had a two-year supply of food every since I can remember.

We have maybe a couple of weeks of food. I always make sure we have some because we were there in Tokyo when the Fukushima earthquake and then nuclear power accident happened. All the instant ramen immediately sells out after an earthquake or when a typhoon approaches, but this made everything go off the shelves, except a few bottles of ketchup.

Things got restored, but it took a week or so for everything to settle down. Restaurants were OK, IIRC, and things picked up quickly.

I don't see how COVID 19 could cause the same kind of panic buying, but I obviously see value in having some sort of supply since I had that experience once.
  #200  
Old 03-01-2020, 12:19 AM
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1. COVID19 seems to have a fatality rate of 1-3% (with higher fatality in places like Italy and Iran). Thats much lower than SARS or MERS but higher than your average influenza virus (about 0.01%).

2. Unlike most influenza outbreaks which disproportionately kill the very young and the very old, the Spanish flu affected young adults disproportionately. In this, thus far, at least, COVID19 is not like the Spanish flu, but ordinary influenza.

3. COVID19 is significantly more infectious than either SARS or MERS, on par with ordinary influenza.

4. It also seems to have a much higher rate of severe infections than ordinary influenza, which means that resources become stretched. Already there is an issue of availability of mechanical ventilation (needed for advanced cases). If you have systems becoming stretched due to a paucity of resources, then we have bad outcomes for ostensibly "survivable" cases. We have seen that in Iran, whose medical system is already been decimated thanks to US sanctions. If a medical system budgets for twice the number of expected "serious" cases and gets 20 times that, well you can see what might happen.

Yes, it's bad. Very bad. Just because it's not the Black Death, or 1918 pandemic or Plague of Justinian, it should not make us think instead that "oh its nothing".

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gorsnak View Post
We won't likely see that, but a significant part of why we won't is because governments are taking it seriously. If they are successful, when this is over many people will pooh-pooh the pandemic as no big deal, and how stupid was it to overreact, etc. Those people don't know their history very well.
Yes. But, unlike before, there is little recent public experience of mass quarantines and people ae much more likely not to follow directions.

Quarantines, are not pleasent.

Last edited by AK84; 03-01-2020 at 12:20 AM.
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