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  #251  
Old 03-02-2020, 06:43 PM
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We have two vacations planned and booked, flights and all, for 2020. One to Washington state, and one to Oahu. My husband just texted me and said he wants to cancel them.

I know what's going on. He's working from home nowadays, and once he signs off, he starts reading the damned tabloids online, and he's freaking out at the news. He goes in to work once or twice a week, and hopefully he can talk to other people and get more of a balanced outlook.

I'm damned if I'm going to eat the cost of two sets of flights, as well as have no vacations this year.

I have to think of a well-reasoned discussion to have with him tonight.
  #252  
Old 03-02-2020, 06:53 PM
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I was going to see friends in Tokyo right about now, visit during the sakura bloom, and they asked me to cancel (I hadn't booked anything yet), because of the uncertainty.
  #253  
Old 03-02-2020, 07:03 PM
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Originally Posted by teela brown View Post
We have two vacations planned and booked, flights and all, for 2020. One to Washington state, and one to Oahu. My husband just texted me and said he wants to cancel them.

I know what's going on. He's working from home nowadays, and once he signs off, he starts reading the damned tabloids online, and he's freaking out at the news. He goes in to work once or twice a week, and hopefully he can talk to other people and get more of a balanced outlook.

I'm damned if I'm going to eat the cost of two sets of flights, as well as have no vacations this year.

I have to think of a well-reasoned discussion to have with him tonight.
The airline might give you credit for the flights, minus the fee for cancellation. You would then have a year to use the credit.
  #254  
Old 03-02-2020, 10:58 PM
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90,936 confirmed infections
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  #255  
Old 03-03-2020, 12:42 AM
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90,936 confirmed infections
3,117 dead
47,995 recovered
So, I'm missing some crucial element of the story. These numbers seem, in total, rather low---the 2009 H1N1 outbreak killed 150,000 - 475,000 [1], and the annual death toll from influenza is between 12,000 - 61,000 in the US alone [2], 250,000 - 500,000 worldwide [3].

True, the mortality rate of seasonal influenza is only about 0.1%; estimates about the mortality rate for coronavirus range between 0.4% to 2.9% (the latter, apparently, only in Hubei). Also, it appears that the coronavirus is more infectious, with transmission to 2 to 3 people from a single infected case, compared to about 1.3 for influenza [4].

Still. Both overall numbers and worldwide infection rates seem rather low, at this point. To my eyes, the response seems wildly disproportionate---but it's not just coming from the usual tabloid sources (see, for one, the multi-page threads here). So, what's different? Where's all the noise coming from? Or is this just a case of the true epidemic being that of social media facilitated panic?

Last edited by Half Man Half Wit; 03-03-2020 at 12:45 AM.
  #256  
Old 03-03-2020, 01:04 AM
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Originally Posted by teela brown View Post
We have two vacations planned and booked, flights and all, for 2020. One to Washington state, and one to Oahu. My husband just texted me and said he wants to cancel them.

I know what's going on. He's working from home nowadays, and once he signs off, he starts reading the damned tabloids online, and he's freaking out at the news. He goes in to work once or twice a week, and hopefully he can talk to other people and get more of a balanced outlook.

I'm damned if I'm going to eat the cost of two sets of flights, as well as have no vacations this year.

I have to think of a well-reasoned discussion to have with him tonight.
Washington State might not be a bad one to delay given the current outbreak.

Viruses don't like heat or sunlight. Which means Oahu sounds pretty good and Seattle not so much so (it is overcast and rainy here much of the year until the 5th of July when summer effectively starts)
  #257  
Old 03-03-2020, 03:17 AM
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90,936 confirmed infections
3,117 dead
47,995 recovered

Here is the tally board I'm following religiously for the latest COVID-19 numbers.
  #258  
Old 03-03-2020, 05:13 AM
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Thanks, that's reassuring. The number of active cases has been steadily declining since mid-February, so it seems that the measures taken to contain the outbreak are effective, and barring some large-scale outbreak in a poorly controlled region, we should be through the worst soon.
  #259  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:47 AM
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Still. Both overall numbers and worldwide infection rates seem rather low, at this point. To my eyes, the response seems wildly disproportionate---but it's not just coming from the usual tabloid sources (see, for one, the multi-page threads here). So, what's different? Where's all the noise coming from? Or is this just a case of the true epidemic being that of social media facilitated panic?
From the CDC:
Quote:
More cases of COVID-19 are likely to be identified in the coming days, including more cases in the United States. It’s also likely that person-to-person spread will continue to occur, including in communities in the United States. It’s likely that at some point, widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States will occur.

Widespread transmission of COVID-19 would translate into large numbers of people needing medical care at the same time. Schools, childcare centers, workplaces, and other places for mass gatherings may experience more absenteeism. Public health and healthcare systems may become overloaded, with elevated rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Other critical infrastructure, such as law enforcement, emergency medical services, and transportation industry may also be affected. Health care providers and hospitals may be overwhelmed. At this time, there is no vaccine to protect against COVID-19 and no medications approved to treat it.
[Bolding mine]
  #260  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:55 AM
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Thanks, that's reassuring.

No problem!

Quote:
The number of active cases has been steadily declining since mid-February, so it seems that the measures taken to contain the outbreak are effective, and barring some large-scale outbreak in a poorly controlled region, we should be through the worst soon.

I think that, while not poorly controlled, the United States is ill-prepared for this. Here is an article about only one fourth of Americans are preparing for it. You'll note the ironic contradiction of one person interviewed using the term common sense at the same time they're spewing nonsense.

Of course I'm stressing over this because my wife is in Busan and her return to Beijing is delayed until further notice. The stress is because it's gotten very serious in South Korea. They had 851 new cases today.
  #261  
Old 03-03-2020, 07:33 AM
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Thanks, that's reassuring. The number of active cases has been steadily declining since mid-February, so it seems that the measures taken to contain the outbreak are effective, and barring some large-scale outbreak in a poorly controlled region, we should be through the worst soon.
It's not unheard of for infections to recede, surge, recede, surge... while what you speak of is an encouraging development don't celebrate too soon.

Also, "poorly controlled region" can be surprisingly advanced/sophisticated/wealthy areas that engage in widespread denial and/or rely on "prayers" instead of science and medicine, or impoverished areas like various places in Africa, or the slums of Brazil or India. We aren't even getting reporting from many of those places.
  #262  
Old 03-03-2020, 09:07 AM
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It's not unheard of for infections to recede, surge, recede, surge... while what you speak of is an encouraging development don't celebrate too soon.

Also, "poorly controlled region" can be surprisingly advanced/sophisticated/wealthy areas that engage in widespread denial and/or rely on "prayers" instead of science and medicine, or impoverished areas like various places in Africa, or the slums of Brazil or India. We aren't even getting reporting from many of those places.
Yep - it's only been in the past few days that we've seen reports from anything in the Southern Hemisphere (aside from that early one from Egypt) - and you know that even in countries that don't report, there have to have been cases. I'm surprised that South Africa, for example (which has adequate medical care available, at least in wealthier areas) has not announced any confirmed cases. I could see that lesser-travelled ereas might actually not have had much opportunity for exposure - but once it hits there, they will be woefully underequipped to deal with it.

There are numerous articles about how in the US, the situation wil be worsened by our poor protections for sick workers. I don't want this to devolve into a political argument, but the truth is there are a lot of people who will go to work if they are feeling under the weather because they can't afford to take even a day or two off, and employers are not eager to say "stay home and we'll pay you anyway. An interesting article that refers to a study on the effect of paid sick leave and flu infection rates..

The stoopid is definitely out there. I was on an email list some years back that dealt with freezer cooking (make-in-advance casseroles etc.). It had gone fallow - but recently there have been subscribers signing on to send out crap. A somewhat hilarious series of emails recently (I have since unsubbed):
1) "This Coronavirus thing - ZOMG. Garlic Oil will help!!!"
2) "Quit spreading the bullshit. Garlic oil will do NOTHING to help the Coronavirus" (ok so far.....) but then followed by "The Coronavirus was created in a bioweapons lab and it incorporates HIV proteins!!!".

And I could probably save some money by sucking on a silver spoon from the set my late aunt left to me, versus shelling out for this cure. It would be equally effective. Actuallly more so, if I start doing it soon enough, as the odd behavior would keep people from approaching lest they catch the crazy from me, thus reducing the chances for exposure (Hmmm.... that garlic oil might do the same - I think I'm onto something here!!! though not at the same time, the sulfur in the garlic would tarnish the silver).
  #263  
Old 03-03-2020, 09:27 AM
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Yep - it's only been in the past few days that we've seen reports from anything in the Southern Hemisphere (aside from that early one from Egypt)
Egypt is not in the southern hemisphere—it lies entirely above the equator.
  #264  
Old 03-03-2020, 11:05 AM
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We have two vacations planned and booked, flights and all, for 2020. One to Washington state, and one to Oahu. My husband just texted me and said he wants to cancel them.

I know what's going on. He's working from home nowadays, and once he signs off, he starts reading the damned tabloids online, and he's freaking out at the news. He goes in to work once or twice a week, and hopefully he can talk to other people and get more of a balanced outlook.

I'm damned if I'm going to eat the cost of two sets of flights, as well as have no vacations this year.

I have to think of a well-reasoned discussion to have with him tonight.
OTOH with all the cancellations some places might cut you some extra good deals.
  #265  
Old 03-03-2020, 11:26 AM
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We have two vacations planned and booked, flights and all, for 2020. One to Washington state, and one to Oahu. My husband just texted me and said he wants to cancel them.
We've got a vacation booked for Morocco next month. My wife said the only way we're not going is if the airline cancels the flights.
  #266  
Old 03-03-2020, 11:27 AM
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Another issue with retail work is that from my experience, you are actually expected to come into work with cold symptoms as long as you can still function. The staffs are cut so low that even when all employees are there it is still a challenge to meet normal business expectations. If you have one or two callouts it is a struggle. Have half the staff sick while business significantly increases and shelves will not get stocked and lines will be very long and slow. Thus there is pressure (that unless you are "really sick") to come in to work. And again, "really sick" means you cannot get out of bed, not that you have some of the symptoms.

Add to that the requirement for "doctor's note" from people with no insurance or ability to pay a doctor, and you can expect a lot of sick people not staying at home.
  #267  
Old 03-03-2020, 11:48 AM
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... I mean, what can you say?

Coronavirus: Student in quarantine after classmates shook hands with Mike Pence

Now, to clarify, our VP did not shake hands with the person who is in quarantine for Covfefe-19 testing, but his classmates instead.
  #268  
Old 03-03-2020, 12:37 PM
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My mama told me, "If you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all."
  #269  
Old 03-03-2020, 12:55 PM
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China reports rise in imported virus cases.

Wow. My twisted mind immediately came up with "I guess 'coal to Newcastle' will now be replaced with 'COVID to China'".
  #270  
Old 03-03-2020, 12:57 PM
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Thanks, that's reassuring. The number of active cases has been steadily declining since mid-February, so it seems that the measures taken to contain the outbreak are effective, and barring some large-scale outbreak in a poorly controlled region, we should be through the worst soon.
The problem with this line of thinking is that the disease was effectively contained largely in China, which mounted a serious quarantine and isolation campaign. There is lots of evidence that, compared to China, most of the rest of the world counts as a poorly controlled region.

We don't even know how bad the situation in the US is because almost no one is being tested here.

Obviously, we won't know for sure for a few months or more, but there are lots of indications that this is just the beginning.
  #271  
Old 03-03-2020, 12:58 PM
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... I mean, what can you say?

Coronavirus: Student in quarantine after classmates shook hands with Mike Pence

Now, to clarify, our VP did not shake hands with the person who is in quarantine for Covfefe-19 testing, but his classmates instead.
I would be filled with schadenfreude if Pence got sick with this shit. And I will send "thoughts and prayers".
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Old 03-03-2020, 01:40 PM
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My mama told me, "If you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all."
My mama told me if you can't anything nice, let Seth Meyers and Trevor Noah say it for you. And then laugh.

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  #273  
Old 03-03-2020, 02:18 PM
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Ooh, my little pretty one, my viral one
When you gonna give me some time, Corona?
Ooh, you make my fever run, my motor run
Got it coming off a cruise line, Corona!
Never gonna stop, give it up, such a deathly find
I always get it up, for the touch of the sickly kind
My, my, my, aye-aye, whoa!
M-m-m-my Corona!

Someone beat you to the video.
  #274  
Old 03-03-2020, 02:45 PM
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And for a more mellow--and informational--take on the situation.
  #275  
Old 03-03-2020, 03:12 PM
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The death toll here in Washington state is now nine.
  #276  
Old 03-03-2020, 04:13 PM
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Yep - it's only been in the past few days that we've seen reports from anything in the Southern Hemisphere (aside from that early one from Egypt) - and you know that even in countries that don't report, there have to have been cases.
Australia is in the Southern Hemisphere and has 39 cases. Brazil has 2 cases. Argentina has 1 case. New Zealand has 1 case. Chile has 1 case.
  #277  
Old 03-03-2020, 04:26 PM
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I suppose it is re-assuring that there are no confirmed cases in Madagascar.
  #278  
Old 03-03-2020, 04:49 PM
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And we got our first confirmed case in Wake county, N.C. Someone who got it from Washington.
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  #279  
Old 03-03-2020, 05:01 PM
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The person in SA who was positive spent a good chunk of her free time at North Star Mall, eating at the food court and shopping at Macy's.

In response, the mall was closed so it could be 'deep cleaned'.
  #280  
Old 03-03-2020, 05:06 PM
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And we got our first confirmed case in Wake county, N.C. Someone who got it from Washington.
Hey, I'm in Raleigh, too! I guess now isn't the time for a doper meetup.

WHO is now saying global mortality rate is 3.4%. [Grain of salt because of lack of testing, etc.]
  #281  
Old 03-03-2020, 05:06 PM
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Just saw on my Twitter feed:
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Truly stunning to hear some Republicans advocate for free Coronavirus testing and treatment for the uninsured.

Rep. Ted Yoho (R-Fla.), one of the most anti-ACA members:

“You can look at it as socialized medicine, but in the face of an outbreak, a pandemic, what’s your options?”
Yoho is so conservative he doesn't believe in fire...
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  #282  
Old 03-03-2020, 05:34 PM
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Shit is getting real in some areas.

Iran temporarily releases 54,000 prisoners to combat spread

Louvre Museum closes as staff walk out over coronavirus
  #283  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:26 PM
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It seems like the ultimate death rate from the princess cruise passengers and crew (once none of them are ill anymore) should give a decent estimate of the mortality rate. They've all been tested multiple times, so there should not be any hidden cases. I'm not saying it is a perfect way to figure it out, because there was a lot that was not normal about that population, but the most confounding issue has been the "what's the denominator" question, which I think this population offers some degree of certainty about.

The numbers are, as of today, 706 cases and 6 dead, for a CFR of about 0.8 %. Still much deadlier than seasonal flu, but not the 3.6 % mentioned earlier.

Because there's some evidence that the on-board quarantine made the spread of the virus worse, this population doesn't seem to be a good one to figure out what proportion of a population will likely get the disease. (About 19% wound up getting sick, but the initial reproduction number was 14.8 before the quarantine on the ship, which is much higher than it has been calculated elsewhere.)
  #284  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:30 PM
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Really interesting interview in Vox magazine:

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/2116106...-covid19-china

Bruce Aylward, World Health Organization Joint Mission to China:

"I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be. [...]

People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. [...]

China got patients in treatment early and have highly sophisticated health care treatment procedures. They are really good at keeping people alive with this disease. They have a survival rate (with a mortality rate of just under 1% outside of Hubei province) for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.

Panic and hysteria are not appropriate. This is a disease that is in the cases and their close contacts. It’s not a hidden enemy lurking behind bushes. Get organized, get educated, and get working."

Source: Vox Interview
  #285  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:46 PM
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It seems like the ultimate death rate from the princess cruise passengers and crew (once none of them are ill anymore) should give a decent estimate of the mortality rate. They've all been tested multiple times, so there should not be any hidden cases. I'm not saying it is a perfect way to figure it out, because there was a lot that was not normal about that population, but the most confounding issue has been the "what's the denominator" question, which I think this population offers some degree of certainty about.

The numbers are, as of today, 706 cases and 6 dead, for a CFR of about 0.8 %. Still much deadlier than seasonal flu, but not the 3.6 % mentioned earlier.
By earlier, do you mean earlier today?

Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died.

The denominator (the number of cases) may not be as hard to pinpoint as originally thought. Today a WHO researcher who has been in the thick of things in China announced that there is little evidence for this massive sea of asymptomatic carriers that people seem to be talking about in the media. Apparently you see a bunch of asymptomatic spreaders of the flu virus, but WHO researchers aren't seeing that with the novel coronavirus.

Quote:
Because there's some evidence that the on-board quarantine made the spread of the virus worse, this population doesn't seem to be a good one to figure out what proportion of a population will likely get the disease. (About 19% wound up getting sick, but the initial reproduction number was 14.8 before the quarantine on the ship, which is much higher than it has been calculated elsewhere.)
There are a lot of reasons why we shouldn't try to generalize too much from this population.
  #286  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:47 PM
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Ninja'd by Fiendish Astronaut!
  #287  
Old 03-03-2020, 11:02 PM
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93,158 confirmed infections
3,198 dead
50,690 recovered

In the US:

125 confirmed infections
9 dead
8 recovered
  #288  
Old 03-04-2020, 12:07 AM
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93,158 confirmed infections
3,198 dead
50,690 recovered

In the US:

125 confirmed infections
9 dead
8 recovered

I kind of wish all the tallies I've seen for this would order it differently. They all look like, for example with the US numbers, 8 people have recovered from death.
  #289  
Old 03-04-2020, 05:58 PM
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153 in the US now.

I suspect the real number is much larger, but there has not been enough testing done. It's out in the general community now.
  #290  
Old 03-04-2020, 07:45 PM
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Reddit AMA from medical researchers: https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/commen...al_developing/
  #291  
Old 03-05-2020, 04:52 AM
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Son of a gun! There are now two strains of COVID-19.
  #292  
Old 03-05-2020, 05:01 AM
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So it looks like we've got a cruise ship being held of the coast here in San Francisco. I'm sure that's been reported here. Considering that and the ship that was held in Yokohama it occurred to me that having people confined to a big ship is an effective way to enforce a quarantine.

Being quarantined anywhere is not going to be fun. But if it's a cruise ship at least there might be more "amenities" than in other places, like your home. I'm almost afraid to mention this because I'm sure there's something obvious I'm overlooking but... if this thing gets moderately bad maybe hospital ships could be an option? Maybe not in Wyoming though?
  #293  
Old 03-05-2020, 05:12 AM
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Here we are in Florence. The government said to open the museums for free the weekend. People we know here are losing money. The Savoy Hotel, five star, in Florence closed. All those people out of work. Restaurant s closed...sad.
  #294  
Old 03-05-2020, 05:18 AM
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I don't think a cruise ship is effective for quarantine. Look at what happened on the last one. The passengers and crew should have been moved to a medical facility and not turned into, essentially, a petri dish for this virus.
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Old 03-05-2020, 06:38 AM
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I don't think a cruise ship is effective for quarantine. Look at what happened on the last one. The passengers and crew should have been moved to a medical facility and not turned into, essentially, a petri dish for this virus.
This idea keeps coming up. Do you know of a medical facility that can effectively quarantine 3700 people?
  #296  
Old 03-05-2020, 06:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Machine Elf View Post
This idea keeps coming up. Do you know of a medical facility that can effectively quarantine 3700 people?
You don't need a medical facility, just some kind of basic housing where they are not crowded together like they were on the ship. Still easier said than done.

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Old 03-05-2020, 07:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Machine Elf View Post
This idea keeps coming up. Do you know of a medical facility that can effectively quarantine 3700 people?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shmendrik View Post
You don't need a medical facility, just some kind of basic housing where they are not crowded together like they were on the ship. Still easier said than done.

Don't think "a medical facility". Japan is a modern country of 126 million people. Think "many facilities". Another option would have been to emulate what the PLA did and deploy what are essentially MASHs.
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Old 03-05-2020, 07:34 AM
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95,748 confirmed infections
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159 confirmed infections
11 dead
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Old 03-05-2020, 08:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty View Post
Don't think "a medical facility". Japan is a modern country of 126 million people. Think "many facilities".
It would have to be very, very many facilities, since most any functional facility you can point to would already have many of its beds occupied. US hospitals have a 65% occupancy rate; presumably Japan's hospitals are similar in this regard. A typical hospital has about 500 beds, so would have maybe 175 beds available. You'd need to locate 21 such facilities and arrange for transport of your quarantine subjects to them. You wouldn't want to fill them to capacity either, so you'd really want quite a bit more than 21 facilities.

It would take considerable time to make all of that happen - maybe as long as a 2-week quarantine aboard the ship.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shmendrik
You don't need a medical facility, just some kind of basic housing where they are not crowded together like they were on the ship. Still easier said than done.
You also need to secure them so they can't just wander out in public. And have a way to bring food and living supplies to all of them.
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Old 03-05-2020, 10:24 AM
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- California and Washington have declared a state of emergency
- A school district in Washington has closed for 2 weeks (22,000 students) as the virus was detected in the schools
- King County has advised companies to let their workers telecommute, and has said anyone over 60 or with health problems should stay in their houses.
- Dude in New Hampshire who tested positive for Covid-19 was told to self isolate; instead he went out to a mixer for medical workers and students.


China was able to crack down on virus transmission due to the harsh authoritarian nature of their government, and the willingness of the people to do as they are told.

This is going to fail miserably in the USA. There is way too much "fuck you, I will do whatever I want" attitude, combined with pig-ignorance about diseases, and a preponderance to love conspiracy theories. (which these days are fed to them from top government officials)

I don't see the US having the success at containing the virus that China has had.
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