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  #51  
Old 03-29-2020, 10:18 PM
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Will the oncoming summer weather alone slow the virus?
  #52  
Old 03-30-2020, 12:34 AM
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OK, that's just bizarre, but you do you. Honestly I find this far less morbid and disturbing than your mass killings obsession.


I do not want those people to be forgotten. I do not want these horrible crimes to be overlooked. I want people to know the extent of the problem so that we might solve it.
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  #53  
Old 03-30-2020, 06:20 AM
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It's not a prediction I'd be boasting later about having gotten it right, if I managed to do that.

So even if I had a fucking clue about how bad this is going to get, I wouldn't be making a prediction.

And yeah, despite being the reigning SDMB Death Pool champ, I'm finding this just a bit too grisly.
  #54  
Old 03-30-2020, 06:48 AM
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No idea how hoping specific people die is on a higher moral plane, but whatever.
  #55  
Old 03-30-2020, 07:04 AM
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No idea how hoping specific people die is on a higher moral plane, but whatever.
Higher moral plane? Did not allude to this in any way. Try again.
  #56  
Old 03-30-2020, 07:09 AM
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Oddly yes. This smacks of cheerleading.
Well, it's not.
  #57  
Old 03-30-2020, 07:14 AM
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Higher moral plane? Did not allude to this in any way. Try again.
Ok, your death pool hobby is rather obviously as grisly as this. You are literally having fun waiting for people to die.
  #58  
Old 03-30-2020, 07:23 AM
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I am not optimistic about the coming results of earlier "social distancing" in the US. People are barely taking it seriously now outside of the hotspots.
Here in a small city in Wisconsin, most people have been taking it very seriously, for at least the last 12 to 15 days. Our county infection number has gone up from 5 to 16 in that time, with (I believe) just one death so far. So, our social distancing does seem to be keeping the rate of infection from getting out of control, around here.

Just a positive-news anecdote from a place far from any “hotspot.” (We are between Minneapolis and Chicago/Milwaukee, several hours’ drove from either metropolis).

Indeed, our impression was that certain “hotspots” were slower to take this seriously than we were (e.g., New York City’s delay in closing schools).

Last edited by JKellyMap; 03-30-2020 at 07:25 AM.
  #59  
Old 03-30-2020, 07:41 AM
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It depends on whether we listen to the scientists who tell us to stay the fuck at home, or listen to MAGAts who want us to go back to work and school ASAP. Look at the example of California, which sheltered early and flattened their progress, vs. states that are ignoring the problem and agitating for business as usual by late April.

If we're smart and persevere through the lockdown for 6-12 months, we can hold the deaths down to 200-300k.

If we follow the MAGAts over the cliff and re-open in time for summer, look for a rebound epidemic that dwarfs anything we've seen so far. At least a million deaths , and the medical system starts collapsing as nurses and doctors start walking off the job because they can't take it anymore. Medical schools can't pump out replacement professionals fast enough to make up the difference.

I'm blessed to work from home, so I'm digging in for the long haul, but I'm frightened for the people who don't have that option and may be prematurely forced back to work.

Last edited by HMS Irruncible; 03-30-2020 at 07:46 AM.
  #60  
Old 03-30-2020, 08:29 AM
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When confronted with a problem it seems useful and sensible to me to assume the worst possible outcome as a working hypothesis. So number 7 it is.
Last Friday the first person I knew personally died, a colleague. They say that when 2% die, everybody knows somebody who has died. I am already there and the curve is not flattening yet. Anecdotical? Perhaps. But that may change and become common. And the situation in my country (Germany) seems to be much better than in the USA. That may change too.
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  #61  
Old 03-30-2020, 08:47 AM
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Will the oncoming summer weather alone slow the virus?
There are countries with warm weather right now and what is happening there does not look encouraging. I think the Financial Times site (not paywalled) is informative in this regard. Have a look at the Philipines, Ecuador, Dominican Republic, Brazil, India, Indonesia... and factor in the more than probable underreporting.
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  #62  
Old 03-30-2020, 09:14 AM
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Ok, your death pool hobby is rather obviously as grisly as this.
Maybe it is. I didn't say it wasn't.

I'd say 'try again' but I've read my quota of CarnalK posts for today.
  #63  
Old 03-30-2020, 09:15 AM
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Thank god. Your love for purposely missing the point gets old fast.
  #64  
Old 03-30-2020, 09:21 AM
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I do not want those people to be forgotten. I do not want these horrible crimes to be overlooked. I want people to know the extent of the problem so that we might solve it.
Yes your omnibus thread is going to solve mass murder...
When are you starting one on gang rape?
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  #65  
Old 03-30-2020, 09:26 AM
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I agree with CarnalK. Purposely picking a list of people that you hope will die so you can “win” a contest seems much more disturbing than trying to assess, as a factual matter, how bad a public health emergency will get.
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  #66  
Old 03-30-2020, 09:37 AM
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I think we are looking at about 400,000 deaths over 2 years
  #67  
Old 03-30-2020, 09:44 AM
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Yes your omnibus thread is going to solve mass murder...
When are you starting one on gang rape?
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That's well over the line. This is an official warning for being a jerk.

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Last edited by Colibri; 03-30-2020 at 09:50 AM.
  #68  
Old 03-30-2020, 09:49 AM
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Ok, your death pool hobby is rather obviously as grisly as this. You are literally having fun waiting for people to die.
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Thank god. Your love for purposely missing the point gets old fast.
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I agree with CarnalK. Purposely picking a list of people that you hope will die so you can “win” a contest seems much more disturbing than trying to assess, as a factual matter, how bad a public health emergency will get.
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Knock off the personal jabs. If you are uncomfortable with this topic, there is no need to participate in this thread or cast aspersions on those who do.

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  #69  
Old 03-30-2020, 09:58 AM
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If I had to bet, I'll go with option 2.
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  #70  
Old 03-30-2020, 10:02 AM
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Moderator Note

Knock off the personal jabs. If you are uncomfortable with this topic, there is no need to participate in this thread or cast aspersions on those who do.

This goes for everyone. I haven't gone back to look for additional snark but if you have a beef with someone's remarks take it to the Pit.

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You misquoted or something because I was not the person expressing discomfort with this topic.
  #71  
Old 03-30-2020, 10:41 AM
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You misquoted or something because I was not the person expressing discomfort with this topic.
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This is rather ironic given your jab about "purposely missing the point," My instruction was to knock off the personal jabs for whatever reason.

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  #72  
Old 03-30-2020, 11:12 AM
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168,785 is my prediction.
  #73  
Old 03-30-2020, 01:23 PM
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It seems like every time they revise projections, they go down. So I'm optimistically going to say 100-200K, since that is what Faucci is saying now best case scenario.

This is, assuming, that that the just FDA approved hydroxychloroquine doesn't work.

If it does work, I could see it going down to 50K.

Last edited by Ashtura; 03-30-2020 at 01:25 PM.
  #74  
Old 03-30-2020, 02:07 PM
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I go with #2: 50k to 100k
  #75  
Old 03-30-2020, 02:16 PM
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It seems like every time they revise projections, they go down. So I'm optimistically going to say 100-200K, since that is what Faucci is saying now best case scenario.

This is, assuming, that that the just FDA approved hydroxychloroquine doesn't work.

If it does work, I could see it going down to 50K.
So if this drug works on something it wasn't design for then it could save 75% of cases. Yes, everything is possible but it's pretty silly to even guess the effectiveness of some completely untested drug.

For total deaths to stay below 50k, we need some sharp drop off in growth pretty damn quick.
  #76  
Old 03-30-2020, 02:31 PM
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168,785 is my prediction.
If you hit that bang on, you win the other contestant's Showcase Showdown prizes.
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  #77  
Old 03-30-2020, 02:40 PM
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So if this drug works on something it wasn't design for then it could save 75% of cases. Yes, everything is possible but it's pretty silly to even guess the effectiveness of some completely untested drug.

For total deaths to stay below 50k, we need some sharp drop off in growth pretty damn quick.
If the assumption is 100K deaths on the low end without it, then 75% of the remaining 95K deaths is 71,250 lives saved. This will likely not be administered to every single patient, but 50K is well out of "eyeroll" territory imho, considering a best-case scenario basis. I guess we'll find out by the end of the year.

Last edited by Ashtura; 03-30-2020 at 02:43 PM.
  #78  
Old 03-30-2020, 04:15 PM
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The Chinese stopped the pandemic in its tracks with about ~3500 deaths. Since the US is better than China (I think) I am going to go with less than 3500 total deaths.
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  #79  
Old 03-30-2020, 04:25 PM
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If the assumption is 100K deaths on the low end without it, then 75% of the remaining 95K deaths is 71,250 lives saved. This will likely not be administered to every single patient, but 50K is well out of "eyeroll" territory imho, considering a best-case scenario basis. I guess we'll find out by the end of the year.
I'll respond in14 days but I think 50k is eye roll worthy. That's a fairly normal flu season.
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Old 03-30-2020, 04:59 PM
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Part of the utility of this exercise is that we can test the predictions in smaller than nationwide scales to see if the model has any validity. IF the approach I am using is correct then New York State will level off somewhere below 5000 deaths (250/million * 19.54 million population), and NYC itself a bit below 2150, flattening the rate of new deaths/d off fast near 1800. (Latest report 1218 for New York State and 790 in NYC.) If correct the slope of New York State (they do not graph NYC alone) on the log graph should start to flatten over the next several days and by 5 days from now (4/4) have dropped from a geometric growth of 1.33 to more like 1.20 and down to 1.10ish in another 5 days (4/9).

If it blows past that and goes well beyond 250 deaths/million, then my approach is clearly falsified.
  #81  
Old 03-30-2020, 05:03 PM
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The Chinese stopped the pandemic in its tracks with about ~3500 deaths. Since the US is better than China (I think) I am going to go with less than 3500 total deaths.
Well, as of 6PM Eastern today, the total is 2960, so I have to think that target's going to be missed.
  #82  
Old 03-30-2020, 05:11 PM
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The Chinese stopped the pandemic in its tracks with about ~3500 deaths. Since the US is better than China (I think) I am going to go with less than 3500 total deaths.
The difference is that in China (if the stats are to be believed,) the number of infections has more or less plateau'd and stopped. Whereas in America it continues to skyrocket.
  #83  
Old 03-30-2020, 05:23 PM
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I'll respond in14 days but I think 50k is eye roll worthy. That's a fairly normal flu season.
You do realize how bad and very much NOT normal a flu season level event happening all in one month would be? Usually influenza's impact is spread over at least four months ... and a bad year strains the system to near breaking points even spread out.


Another aside by the way ... looking to confirm the accuracy of the length of flu seasons I went to this page and looked at the graph for Influenza-like Illness (ILI) rates (ILINet). We've been having an extra hump of ILI (clinically diagnosed influenza) since week 10 of this year. Most recent numbers reported out, week 12, ending 3/21, and meanwhile (also graphs on the same page) the rates of influenza positive tests reported to the CDC by the surveillance network dropped. Locally I've been told we are running near zero positive flu tests.

Part of what is believed to have happened in Italy was that COVID-19's early start was missed with cases attributed to influenza that were actually COVID-19. These numbers are consistent with the same thing having happened here.

Last edited by DSeid; 03-30-2020 at 05:25 PM.
  #84  
Old 03-30-2020, 05:59 PM
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Well, yes. Considering the connections with the west coast and asia, we probably missed a bunch of covid cases in January and February.

Yes, I'm betting the US gets to 50k within a month but I'm bringing it up in response to people saying 50k total for the year. So they are saying over 12 months this will kill less than the flu in four months. That's what you hould be objecting to, unless you think this is less dangerous than the flu or you really think half hearted lockdowns will be the decier.
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Old 03-30-2020, 06:58 PM
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If that hump, to near seasonal peak levels, 6.4% of outpatient visits in week 12 compared to 2.5% of them same week last year, is a very sizable "bunch". If the difference was mostly undiagnosed COVID-19 then it implies the disease has been pretty damn widespread (especially in states but not only that were reporting high ILI activity last month) for longer than we've thought. Getting to the point that it is increasing ILI visits percentage is a big amount.

I do think 50K is on the low side but my prediction of maybe 85Kish would still be bad flu range ... and spread over the rest of the year would be "tolerable" in the sense that the system would not be overwhelmed ... but in one month is beyond a nightmare, well over surge capacity by likely several fold. And that is what it is on pace to do, is doing in NYC.
  #86  
Old 03-30-2020, 07:01 PM
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Also my understanding is the death rate is actually higher. I forget which article I read it in, but supposedly many deaths aren't being properly reported, plus as the virus overwhelms hospitals there will also be deaths due to strokes, heart attacks, accidents, women in labor, etc who can't get proper medical care.
I feel like the death rate almost has to be being under-reported in the US because our ratio of deaths to cases is so much lower than in so many other places, not just Italy but also Spain, France, Iran, the UK, the Netherlands... seems to me that we ought to be doing a lot more postmortem testing.
  #87  
Old 03-30-2020, 07:15 PM
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Death rates are most likely the closest to real, excepting in countries that might intentionally try to hide them. "Confirmed cases" is a number though that means little. It under-reports true infection rate everywhere, the difference is only by how much.
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Old 03-31-2020, 10:02 AM
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So here's a newer forecast:
http://www.healthdata.org/research-a...ays-and-deaths

It's predicting peak hospital usage and deaths/day is 2 weeks away (~April 15). Total deaths in the next 4 months at 81k. However, on their updates page it's noted:
Quote:
These estimates align with yesterday’s projections, though the average is slightly higher due to state-level death updates since March 30. These estimates assume that currently enacted social distancing policies remain in place and also that social distances measures are introduced within seven days from today in states that have not already adopted them.
Uh huh.
  #89  
Old 03-31-2020, 10:09 AM
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Disclaimer: I am not rooting for this outcome, this is my honest opinion.

There will be about 1.5 million dead out of about 100,000,000 infected. A little under 1/3 of the population gets it and of those, about 1.5% die. I think the lockdowns continue through the end of May and even on the descending side of the curve we still pick up substantial dead.
  #90  
Old 03-31-2020, 11:20 AM
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I think part of the "problem" here is pluses and minuses.

1. On the plus side they are coming out with new treatments all the time. I think a new test for it is coming soon with results in hours not weeks. Ventilators are being produced in ever greater numbers. More hospital rooms are being created to care for victims. (ex. My friend at KU Med said they have suspended all surgeries and have reopened that ward just for virus patients.) This way more people with the virus can be cared for. The quarantine while not perfect, is working to make the number of people we interact with much fewer than before (ex. while I'm working the number of people washing hands, using hand sanitizer, etc... is way up.). The shortages of equipment like masks is going down from more being made and reusable ones being sterilized for reuse.

2. On the minus side major cities like New York with their dense population that uses public transpiration is just beginning to become sick.

So we are getting to the point where if a person is sick they can come in, quickly be tested (and the test will be quick and accurate), and quickly start treatment. They will be able to tell just whom they have interacted with recently (say just family members) and then those people can be tested) so any spread can be contained. The medical community is better prepared.

Whereas before a person practically had to be sick as a dog with specific symptoms before being tested and after being tested, couldnt get in for treatment and had already infected maybe dozens more.

So things keep changing.

Here in Johnson county Kansas the number of confirmed cases just topped over 100 out of around 1,000 tested and the 2nd person has died. That is with a population of 600,000. LINK
  #91  
Old 03-31-2020, 11:50 AM
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All the things on your plus side are generally assumed or are only theoretical. When people talk about hospital capacity, I'm pretty sure they already assume the cancellation of elective procedures. If newer faster test kits take two weeks to get certified and out in the field, it's probably too late to take the edge off the peak.

But yes, how the big metro areas fare in the next couple of weeks will tell the tale.
  #92  
Old 03-31-2020, 12:12 PM
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Well, as of 6PM Eastern today, the total is 2960, so I have to think that target's going to be missed.
Up to 3431 right now; probably be >3500 before suppertime here on the East Coast.
  #93  
Old 03-31-2020, 02:00 PM
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{...} they are coming out with new treatments all the time. {...} and quickly start treatment. {...}
What 'treatment'? Did I miss where someone announced the great news?

CMC fnord!
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Old 03-31-2020, 05:01 PM
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What 'treatment'? Did I miss where someone announced the great news?

CMC fnord!
I dont know. I'm not in the field. However I assume as one doctor treats a patient they tell the next what works and so on. After awhile then the researchers can start collecting data and find out maybe what drugs to use and so on.

Look at AIDS. Years ago when that started it was practically a death sentence but later they developed several procedures and drugs to handle it.
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Old 03-31-2020, 05:14 PM
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I suspect we will see between 100K and 300K deaths by the end of summer. if we get a fall wave, we could see the death toll mount into the millions.

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I don't think this forum allows polls but please choose between:
  1. Less than 50K
  2. 50 to 100K
  3. 100 to 200K
  4. 200 to 300K
  5. 300 to 500K
  6. 500K to 1M
  7. Over 1 M

I'm going with option 2, 50 to 100K myself, and suspect upper middle of the range. That is BAD, and unless we can flatten the curve to the degree that it backfills in the low influenza rate summer months risks overwhelming local healthcare systems as it rolls from local surge to local surge. Spread out over five to six months, with most focus on protecting the most vulnerable, and it can be handled. Allowed to peak all in a month period in each locale and it will continue to be the stuff of horror movies.

I've come to the number through several ways but looking at the curves here, specifically the "COVID-19 Cases by Country, normalized by country population: deaths" (log version) it looks like it may level off around 200 to 250/million population is the course for Spain and Italy. U.S. population 330 million, skewed younger than Italy, comes to 66 to 82.5K.

Note this guess implies that NYC will top off at a bit over 2000 deaths, unless more die as a result of overwhelmed systems, roughly three times the deaths recorded there to dates.

Please note that a poll of ID experts reported on in the 538 blog has a predictions ranging "from 4,000 all the way to 1 million" with a "consensus" (?median?) of 200K. I wonder if our crowdsource will come up with a similar range. I suspect this crowd will skew to the higher numbers.
  #96  
Old 03-31-2020, 05:19 PM
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Does social distancing work? In my rural redneck retiree county, we've had ONE confirmed case from 11 days ago, immediately isolated, and that's it. Most of us have stayed indoors since the nearby SF Bay Area counties went on prompt lockdown. But too much of America is incautious. Dr Birx optimistically says to expect 200k dead IF ALL GOES PERFECTLY. Which it won't, not by a very long shot, not with the faithful and feckless foregoing caution. So I'll predict a close order of 2 million excess deaths in the US.
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Old 03-31-2020, 05:59 PM
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I dont know. I'm not in the field. However I assume {...}
So, this
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{...} On the plus side they are coming out with new treatments all the time. {...}
was something you pulled out of your ass then.

CMC fnord!
  #98  
Old 03-31-2020, 06:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Urbanredneck View Post
I dont know. I'm not in the field. However I assume as one doctor treats a patient they tell the next what works and so on. After awhile then the researchers can start collecting data and find out maybe what drugs to use and so on.

Look at AIDS. Years ago when that started it was practically a death sentence but later they developed several procedures and drugs to handle it.
I spot, in your post, the word "years".

I also spot, in this thread, the words "peak hospital usage and deaths/day is 2 weeks away (~April 15)".

No one says that we won't get better at fighting the disease. But we have expected timetables for becoming better and 2 weeks from now is not where that's at.
  #99  
Old 03-31-2020, 06:06 PM
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Reallly side-eyeing the people up on their high horse about this thread.


Quote:
Originally Posted by CarnalK View Post
I am not optimistic about the coming results of earlier "social distancing" in the US. People are barely taking it seriously now outside of the hotspots.

Yeah, I think it will be the classic thing experts have been warning about, that by the time you see the light from a star, you are seeing the past. People will get serious about distancing when things get dire in their area, which given the >1 week lag, will be too late to keep them from getting much worse. Rinse, repeat. Heck, my daughter's speech teacher just did a video lesson with her in which she said the last time she went out to eat at a restaurant with her mother was "this weekend"!
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  #100  
Old 03-31-2020, 06:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Damuri Ajashi View Post
I suspect we will see between 100K and 300K deaths by the end of summer. if we get a fall wave, we could see the death toll mount into the millions.
I would almost certainly bet on a rebound epidemic. With the rumor circulating that the peak case load is coming in 2 weeks for <insert city here>, with summer approaching and cabin fever setting in, almost certainly people are going to be pushing to end the quarantines.

There's also a study being circulated that suggests COVID may spread slower when the heat and humidity increases. If true, we may get a break in the Northern Hemisphere. But I'm not sure I trust this study because (1) it doesn't seem to be peer-reviewed, and (2) it's Chinese, and (3) would serve as useful propaganda to keep people's hopes up.

So I'm expecting a premature loosening of social distancing, resulting in a severe rebound epidemic that hits right when normal flu season is also heating up. And keep in mind, novel viruses are pretty random events, there's no reason we couldn't get hit with yet another one this fall.

I'm neither happy nor sad about this, just kind of numb and shellshocked. I just can't think about it anymore. Mainly my mind is occupied wondering how how Trump & McConnell are going to use this crisis to steal the US election in November.
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