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  #101  
Old 03-31-2020, 06:31 PM
HMS Irruncible is offline
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Originally Posted by Damuri Ajashi View Post
I suspect we will see between 100K and 300K deaths by the end of summer. if we get a fall wave, we could see the death toll mount into the millions.
I would almost certainly bet on a rebound epidemic. With the rumor circulating that the peak case load is coming in 2 weeks for <insert city here>, with summer approaching and cabin fever setting in, almost certainly people are going to be pushing to end the quarantines. Almost certainly it will be too early.

There's also a study being circulated that suggests COVID may spread slower when the heat and humidity increases. If true, we may get a break in the Northern Hemisphere. But I'm not sure I trust this study because (1) it doesn't seem to be peer-reviewed, and (2) it's Chinese, and (3) would serve as useful propaganda to keep people's hopes up.

So I'm expecting a premature loosening of social distancing, resulting in a severe rebound epidemic that hits right when normal flu season is also heating up. And keep in mind, novel viruses are pretty random events, there's no reason we couldn't get hit with yet another one this fall.

I'm neither happy nor sad about this, just kind of numb and shellshocked. I just can't think about it anymore. Mainly my mind is occupied wondering how how Trump & McConnell are going to use this crisis to steal the US election in November.

Last edited by HMS Irruncible; 03-31-2020 at 06:33 PM.
  #102  
Old 03-31-2020, 08:19 PM
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Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
I don't think this forum allows polls but please choose between:
  1. Less than 50K
  2. 50 to 100K
  3. 100 to 200K
  4. 200 to 300K
  5. 300 to 500K
  6. 500K to 1M
  7. Over 1 M

I'm going with option 2, 50 to 100K myself, and suspect upper middle of the range.
Define "over"
  #103  
Old 03-31-2020, 08:48 PM
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A few weeks ago the virus was a democratic hoax and you were nasty person for demanding any action; today the White house's most favourable estimates are 100k-240K deaths and claim total excellence in its quick/complete response to the Pandemic.

He's really going to kill a lot of you guys.
  #104  
Old 03-31-2020, 10:18 PM
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Originally Posted by BobLibDem View Post
Disclaimer: I am not rooting for this outcome, this is my honest opinion.

There will be about 1.5 million dead out of about 100,000,000 infected. A little under 1/3 of the population gets it and of those, about 1.5% die. I think the lockdowns continue through the end of May and even on the descending side of the curve we still pick up substantial dead.
Not specifically to this poster, more to all who are going to the very high side -

Italy is currently at about 192 deaths/million. Not done yet but clearly slowing down. Again, looks like 250 deaths/million give or take is where it will top off there.

1.5 million dead in the U.S. would be over 4500 deaths/million for the United States, about 18 times what Italy is looking like is topping off at, and 23 times what they are now.

What do you think are the factors that go into the U.S. being so likely to experience so many times more than what Italy is seeing? Or do you think Italy will keep rising to 18 fold where they are now despite the current shape of the growth curve?

drivekiller "over" means "more than." If you want to specify how much over you think it will be and why please do.

What I can say from the graphs at 91-DIVOC is that most Western countries have had very similar death rate geometric growth numbers at day 15, all off from their varied steeper initial inclines, and (with some exceptions like ranging from the low of Netherlands at 1.12, to a high of Spain at 1.20. The numbers of deaths per million at that point have varied some bit, but the geometric growth from there, the shapes of the curves from there, not too much.


As to rebound potential ... that is a HUGE fear I have, especially if we are VERY successful at suppressing it. The fear with that goes beyond the COVID-19 numbers alone. The same social distancing that drives down COVID-19 has driven down influenza. That impacts the timing of when it will come out in the Fall and it seems very likely that when we loosen up restrictions in a few months both influenza and COVID-19 will be inadvertently entrained to synchronize. But it gets worse. Most groups are stopping any additional seasonal flu vaccination for the year as it appears there is little flu left out there on testing (despite a mysterious increase in Influenza like illnesses over the past month pretty widely). Keeping influenza admissions down in the Fall will be key if COVID-19 is rebounding then. Those vaccinated now would have some protection from that shot into the Fall. You think maybe, just maybe, all that has and is going to go with COVID-19 might delay getting next Fall's flu vaccines into providers' offices before the Fall? I do. We may be causing influenza to start early next Fall, with a COVID-19 surge, while the we are also creating a situation in which we will be leaving ourselves unable to protect ourselves from influenza admissions spiking even as well as we normally do, let alone better.

The current surge in progress is where the ball is. The potential of a surge in the Fall synchronized with hospital demands due to influenza disease, is where the ball is likely to be going. Kicking the can that far down the road may not be a good thing.
  #105  
Old 03-31-2020, 11:29 PM
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I posted this to friends (links added here):

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A medical study (published by JAMA) back in late February found COVID-19 had a 2.3 percent worldwide death rate. Using a Harvard epidemiologist's calculations at the time projecting a 40-70 percent infection rate, the raw projections came up with 3-5 million Americans dead within a year.

Using the same algorithm today, but with a documented 4.94 percent worldwide death rate (and climbing!), the raw projections today come up with 6.5-11.4 million Americans dead within a year.

Even if we only apply the current US death rate of 2.1 percent (and climbing!), we still arrive at 2.7-4.8 million Americans dead within a year.

So how can anyone believe social distancing will reduce that number to "just" 100,000-240,000 dead within a year? You do not need a masters in statistics to realize these numbers blow the standard deviation by a devastating magnitude.
  #106  
Old 03-31-2020, 11:32 PM
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DSeid, I don't know if I'm on the "very high side", as I said my hunch is about half a million, which is only one-third of the number you reference, 1.5 million. But I'm definitely higher than you are. What I question in your premise is the idea that over 75 percent of the deaths that Italy will end up with, total, have already taken place. You say it "looks like" that. Based on what? According to the NYT Upshot, Italy's death total is still increasing by 10% per day.

The other reason I question your lower figure is that the latest info seems to indicate that with good medical care (hardly a sure thing if hospitals get overwhelmed), the death rate for all infections (not just reported ones: this is based on stuff like the Princess cruise where they tested everyone) is about 0.66%. Therefore, to stay at 250 deaths per million would require that only 4% of the population of the country even catches this thing (including asymptomatic cases) by the end of 2020. That seems likely to you?
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Last edited by SlackerInc; 03-31-2020 at 11:34 PM.
  #107  
Old 03-31-2020, 11:48 PM
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My guess for a while has been 80k; looks like that will be low. For people who think 1M+ deaths: do you think Fauci is wrong by that much?
  #108  
Old 04-01-2020, 12:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Deeg View Post
My guess for a while has been 80k; looks like that will be low. For people who think 1M+ deaths: do you think Fauci is wrong by that much?

Yes, And I don't trust him for the simple reason he's still in Trump's orbit. Trump already announced that his own metric for him "doing a good job" in response to this pandemic is no more than 100,000 Americans dead. The second the count goes to 100,001 is the very second Trump replaces him. Actually, Trump will likely replace him in July when it is obvious even to Trump that this will not end by July 31st.

Latest death count in the US in just about a month of Trump taking this crisis seriously is 4,054. Trump said he like the numbers low because high numbers make him look bad. That tells you right there that he doesn't think those numbers are high.

Also look at the news and a couple of related threads here. People in the US are still doing stupid stuff that will ensure this disease spreads and kills a lot more people. They're doing this now when it's incredibly serious and is a new experience. What do you think they will do when this drags on for months in the US as it has already done in China and the people get complacent? Also, no doubt, it's also just a matter of time before one or more nitwits shoot and kill police officers trying to enforce quarantines or other public heatlh emergency directives. Those areas will be hit worse because of the idiots there, and those idiots will continue to spread it.

Yes, Fauci is that far off. And I will not be happy to be proven correct on any of this.

Last edited by Monty; 04-01-2020 at 12:17 AM.
  #109  
Old 04-01-2020, 03:06 AM
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My guess for a while has been 80k; looks like that will be low. For people who think 1M+ deaths: do you think Fauci is wrong by that much?
I am afraid the number will be high. This is a highly contagious disease and isolation cannot be mantained forever. It seems very likely to me that 50% will be infected at some time, perhaps even more (Angela Merkel said that 2/3 of Germans would get it. As good a guess as any). Assuming a very low mortality of 0.66% (the best number I find in the various data available) and 150 Million cases, that is 1 Million fatalities.
I assume Fauci has his reasons for advancing such a "low" number. One big reason stands beside him and is scientifically ignorant and very temperamental.
I would love to be wrong, of course.
Then there is the fact that every year about 1% of the population of any given country dies (and about the same number are born). With hospitals overwhelmed, the current 2,813,503 deaths could easily rise by 10, 20% or more. I would consider those deaths to be attributable to the coronavirus too.
There will be fewer car accidents, though.
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  #110  
Old 04-01-2020, 04:26 AM
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The Imperial report that made the UK government change their policy estimate 2.2 million dead in the US if no measures were taken whatsoever. Not including extra deaths resulting from chaos and a totally inundated health care system.

So I think thats the worst case scenario, with every measure attempted failing totally everywhere. Not a plausible outcome but the worst possible one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JKellyMap View Post
Here in a small city in Wisconsin, most people have been taking it very seriously, for at least the last 12 to 15 days. Our county infection number has gone up from 5 to 16 in that time, with (I believe) just one death so far. So, our social distancing does seem to be keeping the rate of infection from getting out of control, around here.

Just a positive-news anecdote from a place far from any “hotspot.” (We are between Minneapolis and Chicago/Milwaukee, several hours’ drove from either metropolis).

Indeed, our impression was that certain “hotspots” were slower to take this seriously than we were (e.g., New York City’s delay in closing schools).
I used to live in Chippewa Falls.
  #111  
Old 04-01-2020, 07:23 AM
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... Based on what? ...
Looking at the log scale graphs of deaths/million linked to in to OP and referenced several times. The rate of growth is consistently dropping. From days past 1 death/million, percent increase per day:

D5 57%
D10 53%
D15 19%
D20 11%
D25 10%
D 28 (most recent) 8%

Sure it is possible that the growth rate will stop dropping closer and closer to zero, but that would seem to be be a very unlikely thing, just based on how things, included epidemics, grow.

My hypothesis predicts that the growth rate will continue to drop. That hypothesis will have a chance to be falsified (or supported) over this next week. 250 flat portion is a rough eyeballing, and sure could be 300, or maybe even a little more, there. But many times more than that?

The consistency of the shapes of those curves in the Western countries is somewhat remarkable. The difference has been how steep the curve has been in the first 10 days but by day 15 the rates of %deaths increase per million are very close to each other and follow pretty much in parallel.

Those are among the Western countries ahead of us. Here's where we've been so far -

US:

D5 31%
D8 25% (most recent on the graph)

New York:

D5 33%
D10 33%
D11 26% (most recent)

I am hypothesizing that by D15 after 1 death/million each of them will be increasing at 20% a day or slightly less and will then continue to see similar shapes curves as the Western countries before us. That hypothesis also will have a chance to be falsified (or supported) over this next week.
  #112  
Old 04-01-2020, 07:26 AM
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Originally Posted by crowmanyclouds View Post
So, thiswas something you pulled out of your ass then.

CMC fnord!
No, just do some Googling and you will see every lab out there is working on new vaccines or drug treatments or a cheaper way to make ventilators. I wont do your research for you.

But ok. since you wont get off your ass, HERE is an article on fast tracking vaccine research.

I've also seen liquor manufacturers making hand sanitizer.

I suppose you are also blind to the computer companies making apps like Zoom that make group discussions easier.

On the local scene I'm impressed on how many companies are finding novel ways to stay open and keep people employed.

So why not do some looking around first before slamming me?
  #113  
Old 04-01-2020, 07:28 AM
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Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
Looking at the log scale graphs of deaths/million linked to in to OP and referenced several times. The rate of growth is consistently dropping. From days past 1 death/million, percent increase per day:

D5 57%
D10 53%
D15 19%
D20 11%
D25 10%
D 28 (most recent) 8%

Sure it is possible that the growth rate will stop dropping closer and closer to zero, but that would seem to be be a very unlikely thing, just based on how things, included epidemics, grow.

My hypothesis predicts that the growth rate will continue to drop. That hypothesis will have a chance to be falsified (or supported) over this next week. 250 flat portion is a rough eyeballing, and sure could be 300, or maybe even a little more, there. But many times more than that?

The consistency of the shapes of those curves in the Western countries is somewhat remarkable. The difference has been how steep the curve has been in the first 10 days but by day 15 the rates of %deaths increase per million are very close to each other and follow pretty much in parallel.

Those are among the Western countries ahead of us. Here's where we've been so far -

US:

D5 31%
D8 25% (most recent on the graph)

New York:

D5 33%
D10 33%
D11 26% (most recent)

I am hypothesizing that by D15 after 1 death/million each of them will be increasing at 20% a day or slightly less and will then continue to see similar shapes curves as the Western countries before us. That hypothesis also will have a chance to be falsified (or supported) over this next week.
I need to see your graphs but I have to admit to being confused about total cases vs new ones. If say there are 30 new cases every day over a 10 day period that means 300 new cases? Well no that means a total of 300 cases with new cases being steady at 30 a day.
  #114  
Old 04-01-2020, 07:41 AM
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Oh I'll make another falsifiable prediction. U.S. deaths attributed to COVID-19 will be slightly shy of 25,000 by Easter Sunday. This a horrible number and will be very bad, but would be a number much less than Italy was running on a per million basis at the same point. I hope I am wrong and it is less.
  #115  
Old 04-01-2020, 08:06 AM
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No, just do some Googling and you will see every lab out there is working on new vaccines or drug treatments or a cheaper way to make ventilators. I wont do your research for you.

But ok. since you wont get off your ass, HERE is an article on fast tracking vaccine research.

I've also seen liquor manufacturers making hand sanitizer.

I suppose you are also blind to the computer companies making apps like Zoom that make group discussions easier.

On the local scene I'm impressed on how many companies are finding novel ways to stay open and keep people employed.

So why not do some looking around first before slamming me?
So, instead of backing this up
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Originally Posted by Urbanredneck View Post
{...} they are coming out with new treatments all the time. {...}
your doubling down and putting the goal posts on wheels?!

CMC fnord!
  #116  
Old 04-01-2020, 09:01 AM
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I dont know. I'm not in the field. However I assume as one doctor treats a patient they tell the next what works and so on. After awhile then the researchers can start collecting data and find out maybe what drugs to use and so on.
IANAD but I am sceptical that new treatments are generally developed by experimenting on patients and word-of-mouth.

I am reluctant to guess at US deaths because there are simply too many variables. If social distancing was adhered to strictly, the deaths could well top out at 50K or less... but that's not happening and there are still lots of dumbasses deliberately attending mass gatherings so that they can pray away the virus together, which will result in the thing spreading faster and wider. It's hard to factor in the dumbass level, especially in America which has the biggest and best dumbasses in the world.

But to wildly speculate, I'll say there will be a few tens of thousands before the infection rate slows, followed by premature cessation of social distancing measures and a massive rebound that will drive the rate over 100K. And if the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, we could well see it breach the 200K mark. OTOH if they find an effective existing treatment, we could get lucky.

But that's just a guess. I have no idea, really.
  #117  
Old 04-01-2020, 09:16 AM
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WAG


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Originally Posted by yo han go View Post
Quick extrapolation, if we take Italy for example, which is probably close the the peak right around now, I'd say about 5.5 * (10000 + 10000 to 20000) = 110000 to 175000. But still, not enough constants and to many variables to even educationally guess let alone predict anything right now. Just one very crude speculation of many.
Looking at the graphs, Spain and Italy have not peaked yet and the line is still climbing fast. Ditto for the USA. I am surprised at how many cases and deaths there have been already, and this even in countries that took quick and relatively effective action. The issue in all three countries is how well the health system can cope, or whether the hospitads get overwhelmed, and many medics also among the sick.

This is just a guessing game, and any guesses will probably look embarrassingly off the mark within a week or two, so the question is whether wee think that the death toll is going to explode, or whether it will level off. The virus will mutate, but will it become milder or more deadly? The COVID virus appears to be less deadly than SARS, and definitely less so than MERS, but is reputedly more infectious than either, so it has the potential to be the big one.

What to do? Do not expect a vaccine before the end of the year, more likely not before next spring. Our main hope is that the COVID virus will become milder. One ray of hope is that a couple of drugs have reputedly shown good results in helping those who fell ill, one is an anti-arthritis drug, another is an anti-viral drug (Avigan). We should be so lucky.

I do not want to sound ghoulish or pessimistic, but I have a nasty feeling that this pandemic will leave the USA short of somewhere between 200,000 and one million people. For Europe I would guess around 150,000 - 200,000 people. I really, really hope that I will be proven wrong and a total pessimist.
  #118  
Old 04-01-2020, 09:24 AM
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Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
Oh I'll make another falsifiable prediction. U.S. deaths attributed to COVID-19 will be slightly shy of 25,000 by Easter Sunday. This a horrible number and will be very bad, but would be a number much less than Italy was running on a per million basis at the same point. I hope I am wrong and it is less.
I'm not trying to be alarmist but I am betting you're low. Social distancing just isn't happening enough to slow the doubling rate. Even if New York peaks by then, I figure a few other metro areas will start picking up. So my back of the envelope falsifiable prediction is 32,000 by Easter Sunday. I doubt the curve will be flattening by then either but I'd rather not predict more than 2 weeks away.
  #119  
Old 04-01-2020, 09:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Brayne Ded View Post
The virus will mutate, but will it become milder or more deadly?
...
Quote:
Our main hope is that the COVID virus will become milder.
This is not how mutation or disease transmission works.

First, most mutations are either neutral or nonviable in effect.

Second, should a "milder" version of the virus emerge, it will not eliminate or displace the deadlier strains that are out there unless it confers immunity to deadlier viruses

Third, if we want the pandemic to stop spreading, we should want the virus to be deadlier (so that people do not become walking spreaders), or better yet, we should want a virus that is harder to transmit, or whose symptoms progress much faster (so that people know they are infected).

In short: viral mutation is not something to hope or rely upon to stop the pandemic.

Last edited by HMS Irruncible; 04-01-2020 at 09:26 AM.
  #120  
Old 04-01-2020, 10:23 AM
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Not specifically to this poster, more to all who are going to the very high side -

Italy is currently at about 192 deaths/million. Not done yet but clearly slowing down. Again, looks like 250 deaths/million give or take is where it will top off there.

1.5 million dead in the U.S. would be over 4500 deaths/million for the United States, about 18 times what Italy is looking like is topping off at, and 23 times what they are now.

What do you think are the factors that go into the U.S. being so likely to experience so many times more than what Italy is seeing? Or do you think Italy will keep rising to 18 fold where they are now despite the current shape of the growth curve?
When Italy climbs down the curve and the number of new cases become small, then we'll have a better idea of what to expect in the US based on population and the measures taken. I could very well be wrong and hope to be, but we've still got states refusing to take action and we don't know when those that have a foot on the brake now are going to take the foot off the brake.
  #121  
Old 04-01-2020, 11:26 AM
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My guess for a while has been 80k; looks like that will be low. For people who think 1M+ deaths: do you think Fauci is wrong by that much?
I've been hesitant to make a prediction but I've been very confused by the predictions I've been seeing. If we take 200K deaths as the number and a 0.5% death rate the lowest I've seen any where that would imply that 40mm people got the disease. What I don't understand is why the other 290mm people don't catch it. The way I see it the only way that happens is we social isolate to the point that everyone who has the disease can't pass it on to someone else and the infection stops or we figure our a vaccine and are able to get the rest of the country inoculated before it can get to them.

All of that assumes that our health care infrastructure stays in top condition and they are predicting Colorado will be out of ventilators in the next 7 days and out of hospital beds in the next 14 so even 0.5% seeps optimistic.

My understanding is flattening the curve just drags out the deaths over a longer period of time and the hope is to keep it low enough that we don't add extra deaths. So even predicting 40% of the population catches it before the vaccine is developed and we maintain a 0.5% death rate due not over loading hospitals it seems we're looking at 660K deaths between now and next June. If we assume that the death rate stays flat over the next 8 months I don't see how we have less than 350K deaths between now and the end of 2020 but that has the stay at home orders in place until a vaccine is developed which doesn't seem likely.

My honest guess is 60% infection rate and 0.5% death rate or right at 1mm deaths and I think the stay and home orders will end this summer and not be able to be reinstated this fall so I'd guess that occurs this year.
  #122  
Old 04-01-2020, 02:24 PM
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No reason to worry. It's only a couple more weeks until Easter. That's when Jesus will return to save the world. Err, provided one is Christian of course.

Last edited by Keith1; 04-01-2020 at 02:26 PM.
  #123  
Old 04-01-2020, 03:19 PM
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DSeid, you keep referencing the shape of curves and so on, but do you acknowledge that your prediction requires 96% of Americans to never contract even an asymptomatic case of the virus?
  #124  
Old 04-01-2020, 06:57 PM
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No reason to worry. It's only a couple more weeks until Easter. That's when Jesus will return to save the world. Err, provided one is Christian of course.
How many Easter bunnies will be sacrificed on the altar of... oh, forget it.

I've been in massive Holy Week celebrations in Amalfi Italy and Antigua Guatemala. The latter, with up to a half-million visitors jamming that shakened town's narrow cobbled streets, hosts the fattest Semana Santa fest outside Santiago Spain. I've not found church notices banning gatherings generally and I'm not sure the faithful and curious would all stay away anyhow. Specific dioceses have halted parades and public mass. But I fear poor communities will seek the usual comfort of closeness. The Vatican "suggests" postponing processions until September. Will the faithful wait?
  #125  
Old 04-01-2020, 07:11 PM
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DSeid, you keep referencing the shape of curves and so on, but do you acknowledge that your prediction requires 96% of Americans to never contract even an asymptomatic case of the virus?
No I do not.

In fact using the sets of assumptions that I have felt are most likely true I come with not dissimilar results.

Diamond Princess Cruise was not average adult demographics but way overweighted to a senior demographic. People want to argue that maybe a higher SES and healthier senior demographic, well maybe, but age is an independent risk factor for mortality and severity of infection. The fact that in a cohort overweighted to a higher risk elderly demographic the infection mortality rate was, per your previous post, 0.66%, tells us that that is the number for a high risk demographic which is likely to have many fewer asymptomatic and mild infections than younger lower risk groups are.

I also do not believe that the rate of infections in Hubei with cases believed to have begun in late November, with no major public health intervention for two months from its likely onset, resulted in a grand total of only about 0.1% of the province becoming infected (67,802/59,000,000). Maybe two to three orders of magnitude off seemed more realistic at the time and now.

How can we get a sense of what the number might be?

Well you look at a flight of 126 German nationals who returned from Wuhan on 2/1/20. Of those 126 there were two that tested positive as acutely infected (1.6%), none who had symptoms. No way to know how many had had mild to asymptomatic infections already resolved. So minimally acute asymptomatic infections are not so rare that going two for two is unlikely.

Using an SIR model right now requires picking assumptions mostly pulled out of the air because actual data that can be believed is lacking.

IF I was to attempt a model I would at least model it under a range of possible assumptions. I would ignore "confirmed infections" having any model meaning at all.

One set would include that the death rate of those with infections across all with identifiable disease but untested and not labelled is 0.1%, and that for each of them there are maybe 9 asymptomatic to unsuspected mildly symptomatic cases.

I would in this set also posit that the 24% of Americans who are children function as if they are Resolveds in the SIR model by virtue of low contagiousness. That herd immunity comes into play for this disease at 40% of the population functioning as Resolved. And that under social distancing guidelines younger lower risk individuals are more likely to among those less compliant and among those in the "essential" workforce, experiencing the larger share of infections first, with higher risk individual less likely to be noncompliant with social distancing rules and less frequently part of the "essential" workforce.

We need to add 16% more of the total population to get the total in the Resolved bucket to 40%, which means 21% of all adults. As noted it seems probable to me that young adults be in groups to get infected more, and to have higher asymptomatic rates, but lets just go with the overall numbers above. Adults are 76% of the U.S. 330 million population. 0.76*0.21*330*0.01=53,000 (rounding up). Seems low.

Do I have any solid basis for those assumptions? No of course not. But neither are they unbelievable ones out of keeping with what we do actually know. Until seroprevalence studies are done we have no real idea about how many cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection are asymptomatic/very mildly symptomatic to diagnosably having COVID-19 and what the true infection mortality rate is. We do not know for sure that kids are not contagious (but we have some evidence to suggest that they are not very contagious at least). We don't really know at what point for this disease herd immunity would play a role and to what degree under social distancing being in effect the bulk of those infected would be in the lower risk groups and to what degree the higher risk groups can be protected.

I cannot assume my chosen assumptions are true or false, maybe herd immunity for this disease needs 45%, no one really knows, and we cannot assume the assumptions chosen by the modelers are true or false either. We are simply missing the key critical inputs. I'd bet mine are not exactly right. I'd also bet against the other sets of assumptions as well. But I do believe the growth curves similarities because they are data: day 12 after 1 death/million Italy was increasing at 26% a day; day 12 for New York it's 27%.

Just like kids don't always follow the exact percentile growth curves I don't expect these to stay lock step from here. But given that all the Western countries before us have followed the general shape I would be very surprised if we did not
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Old 04-01-2020, 08:38 PM
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Oh I'll make another falsifiable prediction. U.S. deaths attributed to COVID-19 will be slightly shy of 25,000 by Easter Sunday. This a horrible number and will be very bad, but would be a number much less than Italy was running on a per million basis at the same point. I hope I am wrong and it is less.
Speaking of Italy, New York just passed Italy in deaths per million.

The US death toll is still doubling faster than every 3 days.
  #127  
Old 04-01-2020, 09:23 PM
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  1. Less than 50K
  2. 50 to 100K
  3. 100 to 200K
  4. 200 to 300K
  5. 300 to 500K
  6. 500K to 1M
  7. Over 1 M
8,
possibly 9 on that list
  #128  
Old 04-01-2020, 09:34 PM
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Speaking of Italy, New York just passed Italy in deaths per million. ...
?

No it didn't.

In NYC the current death number is 1374 with a population of 18.8 million, 73 deaths per million. New York State is running 79.7. Italy is 206. It's ahead of where Italy was for that many days into being past 1 death per million though, if maybe that's what you meant. But it's been there literally from day one.
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Old 04-01-2020, 10:23 PM
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?

No it didn't.

In NYC the current death number is 1374 with a population of 18.8 million, 73 deaths per million. New York State is running 79.7. Italy is 206. It's ahead of where Italy was for that many days into being past 1 death per million though, if maybe that's what you meant. But it's been there literally from day one.
The total for the state is 1941 dead. But you're right. I had the city population plugged in. So they're at 99.8 deaths per million vs Italy's 217.8. And there is some question as to Italy's accuracy.
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Old 04-02-2020, 03:49 AM
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Okay, DSeid: so you think the true death rate is far, far below 0.66%. Interesting! Okay, that's clarifying.

I do wish, even if they don't have the capacity to just go test everyone everywhere, they would try to do some kind of experiment somewhere like on one of the Hawaiian islands or somewhere people are relatively "captive". Maybe even among prison populations? Or even in a relatively isolated but not "captive" community. Just go around and try to test everyone and then get a sense for what the true death rate is.

Because if your hunch is right, it will be very good for the people who don't die from this, obviously. But it will actually be troubling in terms of the impact it has on our political and public health systems. The people crying "hoax" or "overreaction" will have some justification for saying so (it's highly questionable as to whether we should be on this level of lockdown if you're right, TBH); and probably worst of all, we won't get really prepared like we need to be for the potential of a really nasty future virus, one that has a SARS-like death rate but is far more contagious. And experts say that is likely on the horizon, and that we are not ready for it. I have been feeling that a silver lining of Covid-19 is that it will be just bad enough to serve as a wakeup call, without being so bad that the wakeup call has come after we're already really screwed. So if this ends up somewhat fizzling out, we could learn all the wrong lessons and millions could die next year, or next decade, as a result.
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  #131  
Old 04-02-2020, 04:41 AM
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...

This is not how mutation or disease transmission works.

First, most mutations are either neutral or nonviable in effect.

Second, should a "milder" version of the virus emerge, it will not eliminate or displace the deadlier strains that are out there unless it confers immunity to deadlier viruses

Third, if we want the pandemic to stop spreading, we should want the virus to be deadlier (so that people do not become walking spreaders), or better yet, we should want a virus that is harder to transmit, or whose symptoms progress much faster (so that people know they are infected).

In short: viral mutation is not something to hope or rely upon to stop the pandemic.
AFAIK, the historical evidence is that viruses do mutate and a subsequent strain can be milder or more dangerous. Pace the Spanish 'flu, where the first wave was bad but tolerable, the second wave was the killer, and it tailed off in the third wave. This may happen again, but I'll leave the details to the virologists.

This pandemic would slow down if a less infectious strain emerges, but I am not betting on that, or that it will become milder.

On looking again at the graphs yesterday I see the main European countries now on a straight line but still climbing, and the USA appears to still be an exponential curve, i.e. growing at an increasing rate instead of a straight line. South Korea is still increasing slowly, but on a straight line. What are they doing right in a very crowded country?

The graph indicates to me that the numbers will climb rapidly in the USA and the question is whether the medical facilities of the big cities will be overwhelmed; from what I have read, the main area affected in NY. The country boys can ride out the epidemic in splendid isolation, until they have to go shopping.

One thing about estimating the death toll is that the estimates for the number of who died of the Spanish 'flu vary hugely. What is 25 million here or there? Why the gross lack of precision?
  #132  
Old 04-02-2020, 07:13 AM
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This pandemic would slow down if a less infectious strain emerges, but I am not betting on that, or that it will become milder.
No it would not, unless this new strain is **more** infectious but less lethal than the current one(so that everyone gets IT before they get the current virus), AND it still provides immunity to the current one after recovery.

Both of these requirements are highly unlikely.

Much more likely, it would just give you the opportunity to catch both covid-19 and covid-19b at the same time.

Last edited by MarvinKitFox; 04-02-2020 at 07:15 AM.
  #133  
Old 04-02-2020, 07:25 AM
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Predictions are pretty much guesswork since the administration has been slow walking testing from day one. They don't want the numbers to be high, that would make Donald look bad, so their solution is to put as many roadblocks in the way of testing as possible. That lack of data hampers the fight against the virus, but it is politically expedient and that's all that matters. The tests are simply never going to be as available as they should be.
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Old 04-02-2020, 07:37 AM
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AFAIK, the historical evidence is that viruses do mutate and a subsequent strain can be milder or more dangerous.
Scientific fact is that mutations happen all the time, but the vast majority of them are neutral or deleterious. In other words, the mutant either doesn't survive, or doesn't change in any real way. In fact what we mostly see is that every year, the flu mutates just enough to dodge the vaccine we made last year.

It is *possible* that we could see a virus with different characteristic emerge, but it is not guaranteed. And it's a roll of the dice to even guess what those different traits might be.

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This pandemic would slow down if a less infectious strain emerges, but I am not betting on that, or that it will become milder.
This is false. If a less infectious strain emerges, it would be crowded out by the more infectious strain, unless there was cross-immunity with the other strain, which also is not a guarantee.

Don't bet on a mutation being an ace in the hole. Most mutations won't have any impact to humans. The few that do, will make things worse.

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  #135  
Old 04-02-2020, 07:42 AM
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I don't know if it's an anomaly or because of 2 weeks of sheltering in place but the last 2 days were the same number of dead and today is half that. this could be the flattening of the first wave.

---date ---- per/day --total
3/15/2020--- 69------ 69
3/16/2020--- 24------ 93
3/17/2020--- 22------ 115
3/18/2020--- 39------ 154
3/19/2020--- 63------ 217
3/20/2020--- 85------ 302
3/21/2020--- 46------ 348
3/22/2020--- 71------ 419
3/23/2020--- 126----- 545
3/24/2020--- 230----- 775
3/25/2020--- 138----- 913
3/26/2020--- 264----- 1177
3/27/2020--- 523----- 1700
3/28/2020--- 527----- 2227
3/29/2020--- 248----- 2475
Let's continue that table of yours.(including correcting the last line)
3/29/2020--- 363
3/30/2020--- 558
3/31/2020--- 912
4/01/2020--- 1049

You were definitely seeing an anomaly, largely by using "today" figures before the day is done.

The curve *has* slowed down a bit, but this is so small it is likely swamped by the noise and granularity of the data.

Over your period the growth rate was +27.7% per day
Over the same period plus including the following 3 days, this 'dropped' to +27.3% per day.

Look at the graph on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Specifically, look at the graph labelled "Total Coronavirus Deaths in the United States", with the display set to "logarithmic"

As long as that line is at a constant angle, the death rate is growing at a constant factor. if the curve flattens out, death rate *growth* is slowing down. If it curves up, the growth is accelerating even more.
Right now, that is a very, very straight line. I.E. no change in the death rate growth over the past month.
(actually micro worsening around middle of month, micro improvement last 2 weeks.. but very very slight changes only)
  #136  
Old 04-02-2020, 08:10 AM
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Look at the graph on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Specifically, look at the graph labelled "Total Coronavirus Deaths in the United States", with the display set to "logarithmic"
That type of data is what informs my prediction.

And scares the daylights out of me.
  #137  
Old 04-02-2020, 09:32 AM
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Okay, DSeid: so you think the true death rate is far, far below 0.66%. Interesting! Okay, that's clarifying.

I do wish, even if they don't have the capacity to just go test everyone everywhere, they would try to do some kind of experiment somewhere like on one of the Hawaiian islands or somewhere people are relatively "captive". Maybe even among prison populations? Or even in a relatively isolated but not "captive" community. Just go around and try to test everyone and then get a sense for what the true death rate is.

Because if your hunch is right, it will be very good for the people who don't die from this, obviously. But it will actually be troubling in terms of the impact it has on our political and public health systems. The people crying "hoax" or "overreaction" will have some justification for saying so (it's highly questionable as to whether we should be on this level of lockdown if you're right, TBH); and probably worst of all, we won't get really prepared like we need to be for the potential of a really nasty future virus, one that has a SARS-like death rate but is far more contagious. And experts say that is likely on the horizon, and that we are not ready for it. I have been feeling that a silver lining of Covid-19 is that it will be just bad enough to serve as a wakeup call, without being so bad that the wakeup call has come after we're already really screwed. So if this ends up somewhat fizzling out, we could learn all the wrong lessons and millions could die next year, or next decade, as a result.
In reverse order - I again feel the need to emphasize that 85Kish, mostly all occurring in one month, would be a VERY BIG DEAL that is far above healthcare system capacity. It is a nationwide Cat 5 hurricane.

I do think that very substantial action is justifiable if that results in flattening that surge to over 4 months instead of all in one. Knowing for sure which precise action is actually required to do that requires accurate information not in anyone's hands, and we have seen its initial rate of rise is overwhelming without early action, so responding fairly all out while awaiting and actively collecting that information is completely the right thing to do. We have the information we have at the time we have it and need to act (and inaction is still an act) in the face of uncertainty and doubt. We can pull back from a stronger response as (and if) evidence comes in that less restrictive measures will slow it down enough from the point we are at; we can't put them in early when they would have mattered most after the fact.

And I realize that selling the somewhat nuanced position above is hard to do, especially in the current political clime.

So publicizing models run with only assumptions that make the case most starkly may be the only way to get the required action. But yes there is risk in overstating certainty in those assumptions and the model results based on them.

Testing everyone with the swab still wouldn't give you the information you want. That tells you how many are actively infected at that precise time, but not how many have BEEN infected or how long it took them to clear it. If the asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic stop shedding sooner than the symptomatic (likely), then it would also still underestimate the fraction of all infections that are in the former groups. Again a random sampling of even just several hundred in different age cohorts, best done in a place that is not in the rapid increase phase, correlated with histories of what, if any, symptoms they recalled having, would be enough to give the critical information we need within some acceptable confidence intervals.

Again though the prediction method I am proposing does not need that absent critical data. It doesn't care if the germ infects fewer and spreads less broadly but is more deadly, or infects many more but is is much less deadly. It is based exclusively on seeing what has come before us in countries similar to us that have responded with similar sorts of actions in similar sorts of timings.
  #138  
Old 04-02-2020, 09:44 AM
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Let's continue that table of yours.(including correcting the last line)
3/29/2020--- 363
3/30/2020--- 558
3/31/2020--- 912
4/01/2020--- 1049

You were definitely seeing an anomaly, largely by using "today" figures before the day is done.

The curve *has* slowed down a bit, but this is so small it is likely swamped by the noise and granularity of the data.

Over your period the growth rate was +27.7% per day
Over the same period plus including the following 3 days, this 'dropped' to +27.3% per day.

Look at the graph on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Specifically, look at the graph labelled "Total Coronavirus Deaths in the United States", with the display set to "logarithmic"

As long as that line is at a constant angle, the death rate is growing at a constant factor. if the curve flattens out, death rate *growth* is slowing down. If it curves up, the growth is accelerating even more.
Right now, that is a very, very straight line. I.E. no change in the death rate growth over the past month.
(actually micro worsening around middle of month, micro improvement last 2 weeks.. but very very slight changes only)
Yes and at the same point, 10 days after hitting 1 death/million, every Western country has been on the near straight line portion of the curve. At that mark the exact rate has varied but it was mostly straight for each.

And every one has started to have that curve begin to flatten by 5 days later gradually flattening more from there.

You really cannot look at a baby's growth from birth to 3 months and just draw the line straight from there to predict its future height and weight. You do better if you look at the growth pattern of other kids before them to inform your expectation.
  #139  
Old 04-02-2020, 10:02 AM
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Well, the US hit 1 death/million around March 22 - so about 11 days ago. So the curve should be flattening in the next 4 days or so if you're correct. We'll see. I think the highly politicized response and geographic realities of the US are going to make its curve a little different.
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Old 04-02-2020, 11:16 AM
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Exactly. The prediction is falsifiable in the near term.

Meanwhile New York is ahead of the rest of the U.S. in having hit that mark by 3 days and has been showing some flattening between days 10 and 13. Not sure it will drop to the 20% mark by day 15 that I had predicted or not but it is flattening, right on schedule with the other Western outbreaks.

Please note - this does NOT state whether this happens due to natural history of the disease or because Western nations all seem to follow the same time course of social distancing responses both by individual choices and by edicts. Either could be true, or some combination. In that regard the difference in curves between Sweden's contrarian approach
Quote:
Public gatherings of more than 50 people are prohibited, but there are no restrictions on private meetings, meaning parties and corporate events can still go ahead. Libraries and swimming pools remain open.

Standing at bars has been prohibited, but restaurants are still able to offer table service. Students over 16 have been asked to study from home, but kindergartens and elementary schools are still open.

Rather than impose wide-ranging restrictions, authorities have instead advised the public to practice social distancing and to work from home, when possible, and urged those over 70 to self-isolate as a precaution.
and the rest the Western nations, and very similar neighbor Denmark which intervened hard and early, will be informative, and over the next several days. Sweden is so far, at day 13 past that mark, NOT slowing down, still at 33% growth. Maybe they will in the next several days but if they get much beyond day 15 without slowing down then it is strong evidence that the fuller social distancing measures are very much necessary. If they DO slow down it gives us some reason to consider relaxing measures as we get under more control. And some sense of what the payoff is on the full out social distancing side of the calculations. Denmark for their part may be showing how being ahead of the curve is valuable. It looks like they began to slow down on day 9 after the 1 death/million mark and now at day 13 they are at 16% growth. A few more days will demonstrate if that is real or just noise.
  #141  
Old 04-02-2020, 11:01 PM
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As to rebound potential ... that is a HUGE fear I have, especially if we are VERY successful at suppressing it. The fear with that goes beyond the COVID-19 numbers alone. The same social distancing that drives down COVID-19 has driven down influenza. That impacts the timing of when it will come out in the Fall and it seems very likely that when we loosen up restrictions in a few months both influenza and COVID-19 will be inadvertently entrained to synchronize. But it gets worse. Most groups are stopping any additional seasonal flu vaccination for the year as it appears there is little flu left out there on testing (despite a mysterious increase in Influenza like illnesses over the past month pretty widely). Keeping influenza admissions down in the Fall will be key if COVID-19 is rebounding then. Those vaccinated now would have some protection from that shot into the Fall. You think maybe, just maybe, all that has and is going to go with COVID-19 might delay getting next Fall's flu vaccines into providers' offices before the Fall? I do. We may be causing influenza to start early next Fall, with a COVID-19 surge, while the we are also creating a situation in which we will be leaving ourselves unable to protect ourselves from influenza admissions spiking even as well as we normally do, let alone better.

The current surge in progress is where the ball is. The potential of a surge in the Fall synchronized with hospital demands due to influenza disease, is where the ball is likely to be going. Kicking the can that far down the road may not be a good thing.
An article I read yesterday said that 169 million Americans got their flu shots this year, which is the most ever, slightly beating 2018 & 2019's numbers. There is an expectation that the demand in 2020 is going to be even higher. I hope that's true, and I expect there to be a bunch of PSAs come late summer/early fall encouraging people to get their flu shots to ease the strain on hospitals.

Fortunately there didn't seem to be any concerns yet over meeting demands for the vaccine...how soon before it's distributed is it manufactured? Maybe the thought is that it will be made and transported during a lull in CV cases.
  #142  
Old 04-03-2020, 02:31 AM
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Oh I'll make another falsifiable prediction. U.S. deaths attributed to COVID-19 will be slightly shy of 25,000 by Easter Sunday. This a horrible number and will be very bad, but would be a number much less than Italy was running on a per million basis at the same point. I hope I am wrong and it is less.
That sounds good, and I hope you win this bet. But your prediction may not be as easily falsifiable as you think, as the number of coronavirus deaths is not always clear. Perhaps this article might interest you.
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  #143  
Old 04-03-2020, 07:44 AM
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Exactly. The prediction is falsifiable in the near term.
Speaking of which, isn't the UK slipping past your prediction's window? Looking at the Worldometer for UK, it looks like they went past 1 death/million on March 17th.
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Old 04-03-2020, 09:09 AM
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I used to live in Chippewa Falls.
So your great-grandfather Jack DID hang onto that icy debris after all!
  #145  
Old 04-03-2020, 10:21 AM
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That sounds good, and I hope you win this bet. But your prediction may not be as easily falsifiable as you think, as the number of coronavirus deaths is not always clear. Perhaps this article might interest you.
Thank you for the article and yes it is of interest. (And again I hope I am wrong but to the lower side.)

KarlGauss made the point early on in this thread. Real numbers, the change in all cause mortality, will be a long time coming. Yes those will include those categorized as other causes, those in which death was indirectly caused by COVID-19 in the communities, those whose deaths were somehow in the medium term were prevented by COVID-19 in the community (likely fewer car accidents and deaths due to young adult violence), and above and beyond those who would have died of some other cause over the rest of the year. Those analyses can take years to parse out. In the meantime we have no choice but to go with the real time reporting.

elfkin477,

Influenza vaccinations are usually produced for the next season beginning a month or so ago, with production ongoing from there, and delivered beginning in August. Maybe I am being unduly anxious worrying about them having them on time this year. I worry.

I thought the 169 million was the number of the supply, not the number given. If you have a source I'd be interested. Thank you.

CarnalK the U.K. is at 44 deaths per million now day 15 per the site I am looking at anyway. Yes the prediction is that should be flattening ... now. And their current growth of 24% is less than the average of the last week and more less than the average of the last 15 days, but still over the 20% mark. If they blow a few days past the 15 day mark without slowing down then indeed the hypothesis is not well supported.
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Old 04-05-2020, 06:38 PM
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Reasonable to see how my hypothesis has been holding up a few days into it.
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Part of the utility of this exercise is that we can test the predictions in smaller than nationwide scales to see if the model has any validity. IF the approach I am using is correct then New York State will level off somewhere below 5000 deaths (250/million * 19.54 million population), and NYC itself a bit below 2150, flattening the rate of new deaths/d off fast near 1800. (Latest report 1218 for New York State and 790 in NYC.) If correct the slope of New York State (they do not graph NYC alone) on the log graph should start to flatten over the next several days and by 5 days from now (4/4) have dropped from a geometric growth of 1.33 to more like 1.20 and down to 1.10ish in another 5 days (4/9).

If it blows past that and goes well beyond 250 deaths/million, then my approach is clearly falsified.
Okay. New York State has dropped to 21% by 4/4, from 33% six days ago. I'll grant myself that as "more like 20%".

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... What I can say from the graphs at 91-DIVOC is that most Western countries have had very similar death rate geometric growth numbers at day 15, all off from their varied steeper initial inclines, and (with some exceptions like ranging from the low of Netherlands at 1.12, to a high of Spain at 1.20. The numbers of deaths per million at that point have varied some bit, but the geometric growth from there, the shapes of the curves from there, not too much. ...
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... The consistency of the shapes of those curves in the Western countries is somewhat remarkable. The difference has been how steep the curve has been in the first 10 days but by day 15 the rates of %deaths increase per million are very close to each other and follow pretty much in parallel. ...

... I am hypothesizing that by D15 after 1 death/million each of them will be increasing at 20% a day or slightly less and will then continue to see similar shapes curves as the Western countries before us. That hypothesis also will have a chance to be falsified (or supported) over this next week.
New York as above.

United States is at 1.19 yesterday (day 13 from 1 death/per million) down from 1.22 day 10 and 1.31 day 5.

U.K. is a bit delayed. Was 1.24 at day 15 and is now to the 1.20 on day 17. A ding on the model.

The general shape of the curve thought is so far staying not falsified though even for countries with varied approaches, from Sweden's and the Netherlands less rigid approaches, to Denmark's early institution of more aggressive interventions. There will be more chance to have the hypothesis falsified over the next week.
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Old 04-05-2020, 07:22 PM
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I figure also should see how this stood up to falsification.
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... They all show the log curve beginning to get less steep around day 10 to 15 days into the curve. Projecting the Italy and Spain curves (farthest along of the bigger number counties) current trajectories have them both likely becoming flat at around 250 deaths/million. ...
Today Italy's leaders are stating that the curve is beginning to descend.
Quote:
The toll from the world’s deadliest outbreak reached 15,887, almost a quarter of the global death total, but the rise of 525 from a day earlier was the smallest daily increase since March 19, while the number of patients in badly stretched intensive care units fell for a second day running.

“The curve has reached a plateau and begun to descend,” said Silvio Brusaferro, head of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Italy’s top health institute. “It is a result that we have to achieve day after day.”

“If this is confirmed, we need to start thinking about the second phase and keep down the spread of this disease.”

The total number of confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus rose by 4,316 to 128,948, the lowest increase in five days, which added to signs the epidemic has reached a plateau, about six weeks after it broke out in northern Italy on Feb. 21.
Total deaths per million today ... 263 according the World O Meter site. The number will rise some more to be sure so 250 was not exactly on the mark ... but "becoming flat around 250" ... looking at the growth curves seems to have decent predictive value.
  #148  
Old 04-05-2020, 07:25 PM
elfkin477 is offline
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Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
elfkin477,

Influenza vaccinations are usually produced for the next season beginning a month or so ago, with production ongoing from there, and delivered beginning in August. Maybe I am being unduly anxious worrying about them having them on time this year. I worry.

I thought the 169 million was the number of the supply, not the number given. If you have a source I'd be interested. Thank you.
Quote:
A record 169.1 million doses of flu vaccines were administered in 2018-19, with this year's total not yet finalized but expected to be even higher. A record again figures to be set for the 2020-21 flu season.
link

And this is reassuring

Quote:
Another COVID-19-related concern: What impact will isolation and social distancing measures in the U.S. and around the world have on vaccine production?

"Barring any unforeseen issues or issues outside of GSK's control, and based on existing commitments with our customers, we are on track to manufacture and supply the influenza vaccines doses for the upcoming season," a spokesperson for GlaxoSmithKline replied to AccuWeather in an email.

"As far as I can tell, the COVID-19 pandemic has not had a detrimental effect on vaccine production to date," Barr told AccuWeather. "This may vary from manufacturer to manufacturer and from country to country as vaccine for the U.S. is made in several countries and impact on workforce and movement of materials may vary between sites. It is impossible to determine at this stage if there will be a delay in the supply of vaccine to the U.S. or other global markets for the 2020-21 influenza vaccine season."

Last edited by elfkin477; 04-05-2020 at 07:28 PM.
  #149  
Old 04-10-2020, 11:20 AM
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Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
Oh I'll make another falsifiable prediction. U.S. deaths attributed to COVID-19 will be slightly shy of 25,000 by Easter Sunday. This a horrible number and will be very bad, but would be a number much less than Italy was running on a per million basis at the same point. I hope I am wrong and it is less.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CarnalK View Post
I'm not trying to be alarmist but I am betting you're low. Social distancing just isn't happening enough to slow the doubling rate. Even if New York peaks by then, I figure a few other metro areas will start picking up. So my back of the envelope falsifiable prediction is 32,000 by Easter Sunday. I doubt the curve will be flattening by then either but I'd rather not predict more than 2 weeks away.
Well, two days away and it sure looks like we're both going to be substantially over the real number, me more than you obviously. Looking at the charts, it really looks like the US is right on Italy's path. That's not great but if that holds, the US won't double its covid deaths for another couple of weeks so my 32k guess will now be by April 23rd or so.

It would seem that the only way we're getting to some of the higher estimates is if there i some big bounceback waves after restrictions are loosened but estimates about that I place zero trust in from even the smartest experts. Way too many unknown variables.

Last edited by CarnalK; 04-10-2020 at 11:23 AM.
  #150  
Old 04-10-2020, 01:32 PM
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Ok, 91-divoc.com did some funky new update. This morning the US was right on Italy's line on the normalized by population graph. Hmm.
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