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  #151  
Old 04-10-2020, 03:39 PM
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Originally Posted by CarnalK View Post
It would seem that the only way we're getting to some of the higher estimates is if there i some big bounceback waves after restrictions are loosened but estimates about that I place zero trust in from even the smartest experts.
I know we're supposed to keep politics out of here, so I'll try to state this as neutrally as possible: If we're talking about the track of this disease and the possibility of a rebound epidemic, there's no mystery or sketchy estimation involved. The science tells us that social isolation is the way to prevent this disease from spreading.

The chance of a rebound epidemic depends on how politicians respond to the pressure to restart the economy. Even since before this pandemic hit true crisis proportions, media figures have been floating trial balloons that the economic risk should be mitigated by putting people back to work, health risk be damned. There are lots of ordinary people whose thoughts are on that same wavelength.

I'm guessing that in the US there will be enormous pressure to "re-open the economy" by early summer, followed by a big rebound in later summer.
  #152  
Old 04-10-2020, 05:35 PM
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Well, two days away and it sure looks like we're both going to be substantially over the real number, me more than you obviously. Looking at the charts, it really looks like the US is right on Italy's path. That's not great but if that holds, the US won't double its covid deaths for another couple of weeks so my 32k guess will now be by April 23rd or so.

It would seem that the only way we're getting to some of the higher estimates is if there i some big bounceback waves after restrictions are loosened but estimates about that I place zero trust in from even the smartest experts. Way too many unknown variables.
Yeah the follow the curve model not so substantially over-estimating if it continues to follow. 16,478 deaths by yesterday. Increasing about 12 to 13% a day, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday itself to go ... using 13% that's 23,776 as of Easter Sunday, pretty much hitting that "slightly shy of 25,000" if so ... a few more days to see though.

Sorry that it is that high. And has a long way to go.

That said my read of where Italy and New York were topping off was a bit low. Each now over 300 deaths per million and not done yet.

The follow the curves model is unable to go beyond where those who have gone before have gone and the critical data for the models to give believable results is still in progress. Hopefully the needed data won't be too long in coming and meanwhile the brake will be eased off slowly enough ... but some are going to ease up some before we will have to decide how to and we can use their results to make some predictions too.
  #153  
Old 04-11-2020, 12:34 AM
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On the one hand, I'm obviously glad in immediate terms that the numbers are not as high as I thought, so far. On the other, weird as it is to say, there's a danger if the numbers are "too low". We need to learn a lesson from this experience that prepares us for a future, possibly far more deadly, pandemic--and if the death toll is too much of a "fizzle" we may save a couple hundred thousand lives now and pay for it later with tens of millions of additional deaths. Not a good tradeoff.
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  #154  
Old 04-11-2020, 12:35 PM
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On the one hand, I'm obviously glad in immediate terms that the numbers are not as high as I thought, so far. On the other, weird as it is to say, there's a danger if the numbers are "too low". We need to learn a lesson from this experience that prepares us for a future, possibly far more deadly, pandemic--and if the death toll is too much of a "fizzle" we may save a couple hundred thousand lives now and pay for it later with tens of millions of additional deaths. Not a good tradeoff.

I can’t possibly get on board with any logic that argues it could possibly be better for hundreds of thousands more people to die now, in order to possibly prevent some possible future occurrence from maybe possibly being a lot more deadly.
  #155  
Old 04-11-2020, 01:09 PM
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We need to learn a lesson from this experience that prepares us for a future, possibly far more deadly, pandemic--and if the death toll is too much of a "fizzle" we may save a couple hundred thousand lives now and pay for it later with tens of millions of additional deaths.
H1N1 purportedly killed 12,469 in the United States over the course of a year. Covid-19 has killed over 20,000 in six weeks and is hardly done. I'm not sure I'd call that a "fizzle" myself, but I guess we'll see what the general public's perception is.

I find myself idly curious if any of the skeptics or naysayers from back in February or early March, i.e. "the threat from this is exaggerated/it's just another flu" people( not in this thread ), are now starting to view this event differently.
  #156  
Old 04-11-2020, 01:40 PM
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H1N1 purportedly killed 12,469 in the United States over the course of a year. Covid-19 has killed over 20,000 in six weeks and is hardly done. I'm not sure I'd call that a "fizzle" myself, but I guess we'll see what the general public's perception is.

I find myself idly curious if any of the skeptics or naysayers from back in February or early March, i.e. "the threat from this is exaggerated/it's just another flu" people( not in this thread ), are now starting to view this event differently.
It's pretty easy to show people the problems with it. I've used the calculator on my phone to show what doubling every 3 days looks like. You do it 10 times and that's what 1 month looks like. The first month the numbers aren't scary. starting with 1 person you get 512 deaths. but you can quickly show what that looks like after 2 months. 524,288 deaths. It's amazing how fast someone can go from "that's not so many" to the reality of a half million in 2 months.

1. 1
2. 2
3. 4
4. 8
5. 16
6. 32
7. 64
8. 128
9. 256
10. 512 1st month
11. 1,024
12. 2,048
13. 4,096
14. 8,192
15. 16,384
16. 32,768
17. 65,536
18. 131,072
19. 262,144
20, 524,288 2nd month

Last edited by Magiver; 04-11-2020 at 01:42 PM.
  #157  
Old 04-11-2020, 01:56 PM
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That demonstration only works on someone who bought that a doubling every 3 days would happen for 2 months. Many didn't and by the way, it didn't come to pass.
  #158  
Old 04-11-2020, 02:06 PM
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H1N1 purportedly killed 12,469 in the United States over the course of a year. Covid-19 has killed over 20,000 in six weeks and is hardly done. I'm not sure I'd call that a "fizzle" myself, but I guess we'll see what the general public's perception is.

I find myself idly curious if any of the skeptics or naysayers from back in February or early March, i.e. "the threat from this is exaggerated/it's just another flu" people( not in this thread ), are now starting to view this event differently.
Tamerlane, H1N1 was not a bad flu in an absolute number way. It was bad because it killed kids and young adults much more than usual seasonal flu does. In absolute deaths terms is was ho-hum.


How about those of us who have been saying "Crap, this might be as bad as an extra flu level event!"?

My FEAR has been that this could be a bad flu-level event occurring in a compressed time period. I am viewing this as that, and that is horribly bad.

The 2017-18 influenza year was a recent bad flu year (even if few noticed that) and killed over 60K in the United States (by some estimates more like in the 90K+ range). Globally "389 000 deaths from respiratory causes are associated with influenza each year on average". Some years lots worse than others.

That is not JUST anything even if we are used to that yearly carnage as normal and fairly casual about it. It may not be the Horsemen riding but a "fizzle" it aint either.


The plus side is that it may be mostly hitting us off-season to influenza. The big worry will be what happens if the brakes aren't really let off until near the Fall and a second wave hits synchronized with influenza.
  #159  
Old 04-11-2020, 02:19 PM
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How about those of us who have been saying "Crap, this might be as bad as an extra flu level event!"?

My FEAR has been that this could be a bad flu-level event occurring in a compressed time period. I am viewing this as that, and that is horribly bad.
I have no argument at all with your take. But your take is informed .

Most people saying "it's just another flu" are using that as a dismissal of the seriousness of this event. Often combined with "all these extreme measures are unnecessary or counterproductive." Indeed far too many people are rather dismissive of influenza as well, hence the large not-bothering-to-get-vaccinated cohort.

Last edited by Tamerlane; 04-11-2020 at 02:23 PM.
  #160  
Old 04-13-2020, 07:55 PM
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Anyone wanting to revise their predictions?

My "growth curve" approach has failed in one prediction to the low end and one to the high end:

Sadly Italy kept going up farther than I thought it would and NYC has ended up running higher than Italy's deaths/million rather than less as I thought it would.

Happily the prediction of "slightly shy of 25,000" U.S. COVID-19 attributed deaths as of Easter Sunday was at least a slight overcall with the number coming in at just over 22,000 - which I would state is a smidge more than "slightly shy".

That said I think overall the curves approach has held up moderately well overall so far. May the U.S. deaths continue to be on track for less than it predicted!
  #161  
Old 04-14-2020, 10:20 AM
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My "count the doublings" predictions didn't account for some things that have since come out.

The number of doublings until peaking is less. Which is good.

The number of asymptomatic people walking around is much higher. That was bad when social distancing, etc. was not in force everywhere. But it will be good down the line.

It's getting clearer and clearer the US will relax restrictions far too soon so the "plateau" will be higher and last longer. That's bad. Really bad.

So maybe 200k-500k now would be my guess for this year unless things go nuts again in the fall. Then whoosh.
  #162  
Old 04-14-2020, 11:37 AM
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So maybe 200k-500k now would be my guess for this year unless things go nuts again in the fall. Then whoosh.
It could only go that way if we relax social distancing prematurely and have a rebound epidemic.

I predicted 900k dead in 2020. I'm thrilled to say it looks like I'll be very wrong about this unless our political leadership leads us into a rebound epidemic by being overeager to relax isolation in time for the election. I really hope to be wrong about that, but I'm not seeing any voices of reason to mitigate the malign influences.
  #163  
Old 04-14-2020, 12:26 PM
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I am getting increasingly optimistic. My guess at 32 000 around April 23rd I'll keep but now I hope the rate will continue to drop and we won't get to 40 000 by the end of April. My fears of southern/western metro areas getting really bad doesn't seem to be happening.
  #164  
Old 04-14-2020, 01:29 PM
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I'm sticking with my original prediction of less than 100K by the end of the year, and possibly considerably less. Whatever happens later in the year, we will be much more ready for it in terms of testing, equipment, facilities, treatments, etc.

Last edited by Ashtura; 04-14-2020 at 01:29 PM.
  #165  
Old 04-14-2020, 04:57 PM
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The numbers one needs to predict things are still fairly shaky.

E.g., for the week ending April 3rd, England and Wales had 3,475 dead with CV cited in the cause of death. Yet there were an excess of 6000 deaths that week over what would be expected. The vast majority of those have to be ascribed to CV directly and almost all indirectly.

Furthermore, the number of flu deaths could be lower than usual thanks to all the measures taken. So the CV toll would be higher still.

So around a factor of two in underreported deaths. And in a place that's doing a better job than the US on tracking, testing, etc.
  #166  
Old 04-14-2020, 05:13 PM
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My insightful intestines advise me to stick with my prior estimate WAG of a close order of 2 million excess deaths in USA 2020. Since not all stiffs will be tested, we can't really know how many are caused by COVID and how many are merely collateral damage. Did they die FROM the virus, or WITH it, or were they down the triage scale?
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Old 04-14-2020, 07:45 PM
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So those thoughts on record I'd like to request some predictions of what those numbers by the end of the year would mean in a nearer term, such that the predictions would be in a nearer term be subject to falsification.

Feel free to use end of the month number, or date when 100K will be reached, or both.

CarnalK already went and I'll mostly concur with about 36K by the 23rd, 40 to 45K by the end of the month and not hitting 100K in the calendar year. I hope to again have erred to the high side. (And would take under on an over/under bet.)

Please note, decent excess mortality stats won't be available for a long time so these predictions are based on, have to be based on, deaths attributed to it in real time.
  #168  
Old 04-15-2020, 12:31 AM
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It looks increasingly likely that my guess of a half million is going to be too high. But I'm going to refrain from any revisions. I don't want to later say "well, my third guess was better than my first, second, or fourth, but not as good as my fifth...". Let it ride and see how it goes.
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  #169  
Old 04-16-2020, 06:16 PM
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Well today sucked. We were running below 10% increase per day and now it's over 20%.
  #170  
Old 04-16-2020, 07:29 PM
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Best to not overanalyze a single day's data, one direction or the other. Definitions changed today so new "probable death" cases were thrown in I think.
  #171  
Old 04-16-2020, 07:58 PM
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Best to not overanalyze a single day's data, one direction or the other. Definitions changed today so new "probable death" cases were thrown in I think.
I expect it to fluctuate but this was significant. If this is due to definition changes then great.
  #172  
Old 04-16-2020, 08:26 PM
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I found this thread awhile ago and I've been holding back. Sometimes I'm encouraged by what I'm seeing and other times not.

I'm going to go with 100K-200K. If my math is right it took 47 days from death #1 to today, about 34K. We have 200+ days to the end of the year. I know it can be a geometric progression---but people may get spooked and back off for awhile and flatten the curve. But IMO it doesn't last...there are economic realities to consider.

Worldometer says of the *resolved* cases, where people either expired or recovered, 21% have died. We're approaching 700K cases in the US, which would translate to about 150K dead. But OK we've got GM gearing up to make ventilators now and hopefully we're buying some time?

100-200K by 12/31/20.
  #173  
Old 04-16-2020, 09:51 PM
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Worldometer says of the *resolved* cases, where people either expired or recovered, 21% have died. We're approaching 700K cases in the US, which would translate to about 150K dead.
I don't think this is a useful way to figure out what percent of people who get this disease will die. Most recovered patients aren't going to show up in the "recovered" column on Worldometer because, most of the time, nobody is really keeping track. If you spent time in a hospital, you might get listed as "recovered" after you're discharged, but if you had a mild case and got sent home to self-isolate until your symptoms disappear, nobody is going to follow up in most places.

The WHO thinks the fatality rate is 3.4%. Other scientists think this is an overestimate and it's lower, but I don't know of any credible authority that thinks it's higher outside of certain very specific circumstances, like healthcare systems being overwhelmed.
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Old 04-17-2020, 12:18 AM
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I don't think this is a useful way to figure out what percent of people who get this disease will die. Most recovered patients aren't going to show up in the "recovered" column on Worldometer because, most of the time, nobody is really keeping track. If you spent time in a hospital, you might get listed as "recovered" after you're discharged, but if you had a mild case and got sent home to self-isolate until your symptoms disappear, nobody is going to follow up in most places.

The WHO thinks the fatality rate is 3.4%. Other scientists think this is an overestimate and it's lower, but I don't know of any credible authority that thinks it's higher outside of certain very specific circumstances, like healthcare systems being overwhelmed.
There is a German study where the fatality rate is 0,37 Prozent.

Quote:
Die Studie zeige konservativ gerechnet eine Infektionsrate von 15 Prozent, sagte der Virologe. „Die Letalität auf die Gesamtzahl der Infizierten beträgt 0,37 Prozent.“ Die Tatsache, dass sie damit fünf Mal niedriger liegt als die von der Johns Hopkins-Universität für Deutschland ermittelten 1,98 Prozent begründen die Wissenschaftler mit der Tatsache, dass in Gangelt die Gesamtzahl aller Infizierten einbezogen werden konnte.
Source: https://www.aerztezeitung.de/Nachric...rg-408507.html
  #175  
Old 04-17-2020, 12:21 AM
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I don't think this is a useful way to figure out what percent of people who get this disease will die. Most recovered patients aren't going to show up in the "recovered" column on Worldometer because, most of the time, nobody is really keeping track. If you spent time in a hospital, you might get listed as "recovered" after you're discharged, but if you had a mild case and got sent home to self-isolate until your symptoms disappear, nobody is going to follow up in most places.
My bolding.

This is the difference between countries which managed to keep it contained and the ones which were forced into mitigation. Taiwan doesn't discharge patients who have minor symptoms or even those who are asymptomatic. They are kept in isolation in a facility.

Of course, once a country gets overwhelmed then it may no longer be possible to do this unless many, many more beds were built.
  #176  
Old 04-17-2020, 10:07 AM
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I don't think this is a useful way to figure out what percent of people who get this disease will die. Most recovered patients aren't going to show up in the "recovered" column on Worldometer because, most of the time, nobody is really keeping track. If you spent time in a hospital, you might get listed as "recovered" after you're discharged, but if you had a mild case and got sent home to self-isolate until your symptoms disappear, nobody is going to follow up in most places.

The WHO thinks the fatality rate is 3.4%. Other scientists think this is an overestimate and it's lower, but I don't know of any credible authority that thinks it's higher outside of certain very specific circumstances, like healthcare systems being overwhelmed.
I will grant you, a lot of people are probably not diagnosed and so they recover. We can't know what those numbers are...by definition, they're not diagnosed. Maybe they have very mild symptoms that they easily shrug off or maybe they self isolate for a day or two and they're better but they don't go to the hospital.

The number of people who DO get diagnosed may be because their symptoms are so severe that they must seek attention. If you're in THAT group, the survivability is much tougher. Well in the US we have a big number of THOSE.

If I work the problem backward, how about this? 100,000 dead @3.4% would mean about 3 million infected. Right now we can account for about 700,000 confirmed. Let's say an equal number exist that are NOT confirmed and we're about half way to 3 million total.

I hope we see fizzling out in NY and other hot spots and I hope we don't get new hotspots elsewhere. I also hope the second wave isn't bad and that we don't prematurely return to normal life. But then these protests in places like Michigan make me think this process is going to have some severe hiccups.

12/31/20 = the OP's choice..."by end of 2020." That's about 250 days.
  #177  
Old 04-19-2020, 05:54 AM
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Predictions of 45k by the end of April look well off, its 12 days to go and there are 39k.

I do not know how useful it is to guesstimate based upon deaths per million population but currently US has rates about 25% of nations such as Spain, Italy, Belgium, and when you look at others who still are on the increase such as UK Netherlands they seem to be following similar death rate curve.

That might suggest for the US that by the end of the month it might be around 80-100k in the US by May1st and then its a case of how quickly the death rate slows once the peak has been reached.

In this wave perhaps 160k but that is only if things do not suddenly increase, and those protests and church gatherings haven't yet fed into the infection rates - if worst happens and those events do cause more widespread infection then maybe 250k.

As for total for the rest of the year, even more unpredictable and probably depends upon political decisions such as when the election comes up. Over optimism and unlocking too soon could lead to much higher numbers, it only takes one or two states to do this and all the work in the more prudent states will be undone, it really takes every state to work together and I'm not sure the US political system is capable of doing that - it doesn't seem to be fit for purpose for having a uniform coordinated national response, especially given the national leadership which has completely different agenda.
  #178  
Old 04-19-2020, 06:58 AM
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Hard to know how far off the predictions are since they changed the accounting methods and did a sudden one day add of 6200. A couple bad days after that but deaths per day isn't really going up, istm.
  #179  
Old 04-19-2020, 09:52 AM
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No question that the hypothesis had not foreseen or included the change in case definition that shifted the curve up (a similar event happened dramatically with China's numbers early on), so yes the prediction the hypothesis makes will likely be off by the amount the definition change adds in over the two to three days it takes to get those now counted case numbers in. And those numbers really should be counted.

I accept the growth curves prediction will be off by somewhere around the amounts the expanded case definition add in. If it ends up that range though the hypothesis remains not yet falsified.

casdave, would accept your read of the numbers to be falsified if the end of the month numbers are significantly below your lower bound?
  #180  
Old 04-19-2020, 10:37 AM
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That demonstration only works on someone who bought that a doubling every 3 days would happen for 2 months. Many didn't and by the way, it didn't come to pass.
Thank goodness.

But had people behaved as usual with no distancing it might have happened that way.

For the two weeks ended yesterday, April 18, the average daily growth in number of cases was 6.4% (doubling about every 12-13 days) and the average daily increase in deaths was 11.5% per day. (doubling about every 6 days)

At 6.4% daily growth in cases we'd reach 1 million US cases with the next week and at 11.5% increasing death rate we'd reach 100,000 deaths by th 27th. However, recent percentage increases have been 4.5% for cases and 6% for deaths. If those rates keep decreasing we may stop at a bit over a million cases and under 75,000 deaths.
  #181  
Old 04-19-2020, 10:59 AM
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I actually doubt it would have doubled every 3 days indefinitely without intervention. That is rather beyond doubt on a worldwide basis. Japan didn't do much of anything with confirmed cases back in January, nowhere near doubling deaths every 3days. Hyper dense India hasn't showing that growth. The various jurisdictions in the US with a variety of lockdowns don't show the obviousness of such rates.

People seem to have completely forgotten that these were extreme worst case scenarios based on very little information. I bet not a single person here, including me, even remotely remembers what the best case scenarios were without intervention. I don't think they were ever reported.
  #182  
Old 04-19-2020, 12:26 PM
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I actually doubt it would have doubled every 3 days indefinitely without intervention. That is rather beyond doubt on a worldwide basis. Japan didn't do much of anything with confirmed cases back in January, nowhere near doubling deaths every 3days. Hyper dense India hasn't showing that growth. The various jurisdictions in the US with a variety of lockdowns don't show the obviousness of such rates. . .
Of course.

If we take yesterday's rates of increase (4.1% cases, 5% deaths) and project those out from yesterday, we'd reach 1 million cases on the 26th and 100,000 deaths on May 8. Clearly, those rates of growth are still too high.

Reducing the rate of increase of deaths to just 1% projects to 503K deaths by the end of the year. Sadly, with so much "reopen now" stupidity happening I think that number is possible.
  #183  
Old 04-19-2020, 01:02 PM
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Why assume the death rate will increase at all from here? Looks to me, ignoring the couple of adjustment of method days, it's not obviously increasing now.

I don't know what numbers you're looking at, either. There was a drop in the daily death toll yesterday according to Worldometer. 1867 yesterday, 2528 for Friday, 2176 Thursday.
  #184  
Old 04-22-2020, 05:23 AM
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There are bound to be anomolies and its the trend that matters, we can see from Sweden that they seem to have a weekly cycle of reporting which has regualr peaks and troughs - probably due to reporting mechanisms and legal requirements for evaluating cause of death.

US seems to have some sort of irregularity but it is not as predictable - so the last couples of days have seen significant increases, these might well iron out.

I'd suggest that the main concern is the lag time of infection, symptoms and hospitalizations - those protests took place only a few days ago and if they spread the infection it is likely to take a good 10days to two weeks to show - just as todays deaths relate to infections that were recorded some time ago.
  #185  
Old 04-23-2020, 04:27 PM
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Here's a model I think has lost its way: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

They just updated it yesterday, but they're showing total U.S. deaths leveling off at under 67,000. We'll have our 50,000th death tonight sometime. Their model says the U.S. covid-19 death rate will drop by 50% over the next week. That would be wonderful, and this could be the week it starts dropping for real, but not anything like that. (I would love, love, love to be wrong.)

The current death rate reflects the closings and other restrictions and advisories we'd done through the first few days of April - and AFAICT, most of what we've done, we'd done by then*. So it's hard to see that there's a sudden drop in the death rate only days away. Hopefully the additional restrictions since then will start making enough of a difference for the death rate to start dropping shortly.

Let's hope - and continue to wash our hands thoroughly, wear masks outside the home, minimize our contact with other people, etc. Those numbers won't go down by themselves.


*Once you've closed schools, nonessential businesses, and stuff like that, there's not many places to go anyway, so that's most of the impact of a stay-at-home regime anyway, AFAIAC.
  #186  
Old 04-23-2020, 04:38 PM
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They just updated it yesterday, but they're showing total U.S. deaths leveling off at under 67,000. We'll have our 50,000th death tonight sometime. Their model says the U.S. covid-19 death rate will drop by 50% over the next week. That would be wonderful, and this could be the week it starts dropping for real, but not anything like that. (I would love, love, love to be wrong.)
Most other experts think that May will be the worst month (though similar in total deaths to April).

Based on data from the UK, they only got about half of their deaths through hospitals and another half seem to have died mysteriously, at home or elsewhere, presumably from Corona (though, it could also be fatalities from other illnesses due to shortages of supplies and help).

Given that most of our 50k happened this month, that implies that we're actually at 100k (including deaths at home) and that we should expect around a similar amount next month, putting us up to 200k by end of May.

It seems unlikely that we couldn't get another 100k added in over the remaining 7 months of the year after that.

Last edited by Sage Rat; 04-23-2020 at 04:39 PM.
  #187  
Old 04-23-2020, 05:52 PM
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Most other experts think that May will be the worst month (though similar in total deaths to April).

Based on data from the UK, they only got about half of their deaths through hospitals and another half seem to have died mysteriously, at home or elsewhere, presumably from Corona (though, it could also be fatalities from other illnesses due to shortages of supplies and help).
When the overall fatality counts by month are known, they're going to be able to compare with the average or trend of recent years, and get a good estimate of excess deaths due to the coronavirus.

And of course, many won't have been counted as a coronavirus death. Some will be coronavirus deaths at home, some will be excess deaths due to other causes in a hospital that's been stretched too thin, and some will be deaths at home due to other causes, where people were more afraid of going to the hospital and catching the coronavirus than they were of their existing conditions killing them at home.

If I had to guess, I'd guess somewhere between 150,000 and 300,000 deaths counted as coronavirus deaths at the time: even if the deaths start declining over the next week, it's hard for me to see how we don't get another 50-60K deaths by the end of May, and then another 40-50K over the rest of the summer.

And the ultimate count of excess deaths during the time of the plague: like you said, probably about double that range.
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Old 04-23-2020, 05:59 PM
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There are bound to be anomolies and its the trend that matters, we can see from Sweden that they seem to have a weekly cycle of reporting which has regualr peaks and troughs - probably due to reporting mechanisms and legal requirements for evaluating cause of death.

US seems to have some sort of irregularity but it is not as predictable - so the last couples of days have seen significant increases, these might well iron out.
Yeah, I wouldn't put much stock in a 3-4 day trend. We've had those before that turned out to be illusory. A 5-7 day moving average is good.
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I'd suggest that the main concern is the lag time of infection, symptoms and hospitalizations - those protests took place only a few days ago and if they spread the infection it is likely to take a good 10days to two weeks to show - just as todays deaths relate to infections that were recorded some time ago.
Fortunately in terms of spreading the virus, those protests were pretty small.

OTOH, a metric ton of people voted in person in Wisconsin on April 7, and it may already be showing up in the body count.
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Old 04-23-2020, 07:42 PM
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Here's a model I think has lost its way: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

They just updated it yesterday, but they're showing total U.S. deaths leveling off at under 67,000. We'll have our 50,000th death tonight sometime. Their model says the U.S. covid-19 death rate will drop by 50% over the next week. That would be wonderful, and this could be the week it starts dropping for real, but not anything like that. (I would love, love, love to be wrong.)

The current death rate reflects the closings and other restrictions and advisories we'd done through the first few days of April - and AFAICT, most of what we've done, we'd done by then*. So it's hard to see that there's a sudden drop in the death rate only days away. Hopefully the additional restrictions since then will start making enough of a difference for the death rate to start dropping shortly.

Let's hope - and continue to wash our hands thoroughly, wear masks outside the home, minimize our contact with other people, etc. Those numbers won't go down by themselves.


*Once you've closed schools, nonessential businesses, and stuff like that, there's not many places to go anyway, so that's most of the impact of a stay-at-home regime anyway, AFAIAC.
Their model is a more sophisticated version of my idea to just assume that we follow the curves of those before us. Those who have gone before us have started to drop off on new deaths after new deaths have plateaued for about a week. We are as of the entered 4/22 numbers at 5 days into the one week moving average of daily death rate staying flat. New York's death rate in particular is falling fast, that same 7 day moving daily average dropping 68 to 57 deaths/million/day and the daily number from 165 peak to 16. True 165 may have been a reporting glitch with a change of definition but the current daily deaths that include "probable deaths" is now not much more than a third of what the number was before that counted only "confirmed deaths".

I'm personally sticking with my 80somethingK but given how much NYC has been driving the U.S. numbers, and how their model has tracked results significantly better than most others have (follow the time elapse graphic in this article), I personally wouldn't bet on their having lost their way too far.
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Old 04-23-2020, 07:58 PM
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When the overall fatality counts by month are known, they're going to be able to compare with the average or trend of recent years, and get a good estimate of excess deaths due to the coronavirus.
That's what the UK did and why I say that we should expect that about 50% of our current fatalities are probably not yet recorded.
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Old 04-24-2020, 04:55 AM
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Their model is a more sophisticated version of my idea to just assume that we follow the curves of those before us.
On this score, the Financial Times' graph says American exceptionalism is still very much a thing. We're still rising at a point where deaths in even basket cases like Italy and Spain were clearly on the decline, and had been for awhile.
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I'm personally sticking with my 80somethingK but given how much NYC has been driving the U.S. numbers, and how their model has tracked results significantly better than most others have (follow the time elapse graphic in this article), I personally wouldn't bet on their having lost their way too far.
I've been following the NY+NJ totals for a couple of weeks, and they keep on being a just a bit over half of the national deaths. (This morning, it's ~26,300 v. ~23,900.) So even if NY is plummeting, NJ is making up the slack all by itself.

At any rate, IHME will be put to the test right away. If its model is basically sound, we should see a major plummet in the U.S. death rate by the middle of next week.
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Old 04-24-2020, 11:38 AM
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At any rate, IHME will be put to the test right away. If its model is basically sound, we should see a major plummet in the U.S. death rate by the middle of next week.
Math, China, Italy, and Spain all say that you quickly spike and then things slowly decline at a much more gradual pace.

I'm not sure why IHME and the media came to accept the idea of a bell curve epidemic progression, but that's not how it happens.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compar...n_epidemiology
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html (Daily Cases)
  #193  
Old 04-27-2020, 10:00 PM
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Here's a model I think has lost its way: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

They just updated it yesterday, but they're showing total U.S. deaths leveling off at under 67,000. We'll have our 50,000th death tonight sometime. Their model says the U.S. covid-19 death rate will drop by 50% over the next week. That would be wonderful, and this could be the week it starts dropping for real, but not anything like that. (I would love, love, love to be wrong.) ...
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... At any rate, IHME will be put to the test right away. If its model is basically sound, we should see a major plummet in the U.S. death rate by the middle of next week.
Using Worldometer numbers ...

On the date that was written daily deaths rate was 2340 and the seven day average was 2190.

Four days later, middle of the next week I'd call it, dropped to a two day average of 1271, pretty close to the 50% dropped they called for over the whole of the next week and certainly qualifying as "a major plummet" by the middle of the next week. Spookily their very first set of curves out looks like it predicted about 1500 deaths/day at this precise point.

Yeah two days could still be noise. But so far it's looking like dismissing them as a model that has "lost its way" may have been premature ... Their model, with wide confidence intervals, has predicted about 1100 deaths a day on May 1. No other model is even close to having their prediction value. Most of them were predicting 2200 to 3700 on this date.
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Old 04-28-2020, 07:40 PM
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AND maybe noise! Today back up.
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Old 04-28-2020, 07:49 PM
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Grim milestone. I see that the official US covid death toll has surpassed the official US Vietnam War death toll.
  #196  
Old 04-29-2020, 06:12 AM
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If you go back 2 to 3 weeks of infections you do not see a corresponding drop with infections over the last 3 days, I would have expected death rate would be flat at best, so it appears to me that those two days of lower mortality was likely so be optimistic.

It seems that yesterdays total has averaged it out, maybe it is lower overall but we won't know for a few days - the 7 day average is a better indicator and this does look better.
  #197  
Old 04-29-2020, 09:39 AM
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Need to correct that first sentence,

If you go back 2 to 3 weeks of infections you do not see a corresponding drop with infections over the last 3 days

change it to,

If you go back 2 to 3 weeks of infections you do not see a corresponding drop with Deaths over the last 3 days.

You would expect a drop in deaths would follow around a drop of infection two to three weeks previous - we have not seen this, at best its flat, hope this is the case but more time is needed.

USA has is not likely to hit 80k by the end of the month, which was within bounds of possibility, its going to be mid 60k ish but when you look at Italy, Spain the drop is quite slow, it has taken 21 days to reduce the death rate by 50%, assume something similar and its looking like around a further 40k deaths in a similar period unless improvements in medical practice make a significant difference.
  #198  
Old 04-29-2020, 10:57 AM
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AND maybe noise! Today back up.
One thing that's guided my thinking here is that the number of new cases was more or less steady through the first few weeks of April, and the testing level was also steady through most of that period.

Maybe we were catching more of the cases over that period despite not increasing testing, but given that treatments are only improving at the margins, deaths should mostly increase or decrease based on the number of new cases 2-3 weeks earlier.

It's true that the number of new cases isn't a very good measure for what's really happening, but little reason to think it got much better or much worse as a measure during that time.
  #199  
Old 04-29-2020, 11:23 AM
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FWIW, here is an expert who is predicting 800K US deaths in the next 18 months.
  #200  
Old 04-29-2020, 06:07 PM
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I'm seeing people, including those who should know better (like my wife's colleagues, all with masters degrees, who are planning a get-together this weekend in direct violation of Minnesota's stay-at-home order) losing their patience with social distancing guidelines, so that does not augur well for the future.
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