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  #101  
Old 04-06-2020, 11:35 AM
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There's also the problem that the people who were supposed to be in charge and on top of things like this (Trump, China et al.) dropped the ball so badly. Canada, and in fact most the rest of the world, doesn't have the resources needed to track every possible pandemic. We rely on accurate reporting from other countries, to alert us to potential problems. We didn't get that.
I agree. I've said it a dozen times; the international system we take for granted, where the world is divvied up into sovereign nations and international organizations are largely powerless, is part of the problem.

But pandemic preparedness does not mean stuff you do after you know one is on the way. It's what you do BEFORE that. The world is always at risk of something like this happening, and it's almost always going to be something like a new influenza or a SARS. Canada should be perpetually ready to release stuff like PPE, basic respirators, and other rudimentary equipment, and should have a contingency plan for how to react in these situations and roll out the stuff and the information.

After all, stuff like masks are cheap. There really is not particularly good reason NOT to have a billion masks in a warehouse, and I use the word "billion" quite literally.
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  #102  
Old 04-06-2020, 01:58 PM
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After all, stuff like masks are cheap. There really is not particularly good reason NOT to have a billion masks in a warehouse, and I use the word "billion" quite literally.


The problem with that is, these things don't last forever. You can't just buy a billion today and expect they'll be perfectly usable a decade from now.

What you need is a robust system that actually maintains stockpiles. That is, buys them on a regular basis, rotating out the old stock for use before it atrophies, but maintaining a sufficient stock to cover a surge in demand at the beginning of a pandemic.

But we also need earlier warnings, so we can ramp up production, because in a prolonged pandemic, usage will stay high for a long time. The more you can produce, and the earlier you start producing it, the better the results will be.

Of course, all of this will cost money. And every year that passes between the last pandemic and the next will increase the likelihood of someone cutting that funding to make things looks better in the fiscal short term.
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  #103  
Old 04-06-2020, 02:21 PM
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The problem with that is, these things don't last forever. You can't just buy a billion today and expect they'll be perfectly usable a decade from now.

What you need is a robust system that actually maintains stockpiles. That is, buys them on a regular basis, rotating out the old stock for use before it atrophies, but maintaining a sufficient stock to cover a surge in demand at the beginning of a pandemic.
I am confident the government can find competent people with experience in logistics. This isn't a mysterious sort of sorcery.
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  #104  
Old 04-06-2020, 04:57 PM
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I am confident the government can find competent people with experience in logistics. This isn't a mysterious sort of sorcery.


Sure, they can find them, but will they keep them? That's my concern. Obama found lots of them, Trump fired most of them. I still recall some of the shenanigans Harper pulled as PM to make his budgets look better. It only takes one term for people like that to ruin everything. Having to re-build a stockpile system every 10 years or so isn't very efficient, and leaves you vulnerable for at least some part of the time.
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  #105  
Old 04-06-2020, 05:46 PM
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Well, no. This doesn't really make any sense; if this was a policy you'd be dooming Canadians to a drop in their standard of living equivalent to what this pandemic is going to do to us. Forever. We are still importing an enormous number of things, even with the pandemic, with relatively little disruption. National borders aren't the solution to these problems. They are PART of the problem.

Erecting trade barriers between Canada and other countries is exactly as illogical as, say, erecting trade barriers between different municipalities in Canada. I am sure you would consider that idiotic, but it's the same thing.

The problem here isn't that we import things like N95 masks and respirators. It's that we had no reserve supply.The government could have had a stockpile - it wouldn't have mattered if they were made in Manitoba or Malaysia, it's best to have an emergency stockpile for this scenario and to have a plan for their distribution.
Same old arguments for offshoring jobs. I am not talking about trade barriers. I am for economic security and control within our borders. We lose more quality jobs every year. They are not replaced with equal or better jobs. Our wages stagnate as we go into more personal and governmental debt. Fair trade. Logical trade. Is fine. Cut your own throat trade with countries that have lower wages and standards is BS. Eventually you are at those lower standards or worse. Because you are not producing product or jobs. The math is simple.
  #106  
Old 04-06-2020, 07:40 PM
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Sure, they can find them, but will they keep them? That's my concern. Obama found lots of them, Trump fired most of them. I still recall some of the shenanigans Harper pulled as PM to make his budgets look better. It only takes one term for people like that to ruin everything. Having to re-build a stockpile system every 10 years or so isn't very efficient, and leaves you vulnerable for at least some part of the time.
Yes, the government is capable of fucking up. They already have, as evidenced by our lack of a strategic reserve. That is my point; we should have had one.
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  #107  
Old 04-07-2020, 07:07 AM
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What about all the hospital presidents getting multi million dollar salaries PLUS a multimillion dollar bonus. Why? For successfully cutting things to the bone. Staffing, supplies, advances, development, preparation inventories, cuts, cuts, cuts. I’m pretty sure health care workers would rather have the right equipment, full staffing and actual freaking support for their needs, from the top, instead of the reverse. And instead of clapping, singing, and honking horns. Maybe stand with the nurses when they demand better working conditions instead of sending what amounts to thoughts and prayers.

I’d also like to point out that plenty of those now deemed essential, like migrant farm workers, grocery clerks, truck depot workers, fast food workers, delivery drivers, who put themselves at risk for all of us, those people we weren’t willing to see get a minimum wage of $15. If you’re scared for your loved ones imagine how they feel. But we haven’t raised the minimum wage in a truly shameful amount of time. And all the people bitching that $1200 a month isn’t enough to live on? Yeah, that’s what a minimum wage earner makes in a month of 40 hr weeks.

Nursing homes are another example. No one denies that it must be horrific to know your ‘at risk’ loved one is locked into a facility where Covid’s running amok. You can’t even visit. Instead of heartwarming news stories of the family singing and waving to gran from the lawn, they should be reminding people that workers in these homes have been screaming about deteriorating staffing etc, families were screaming for inspecting and monitoring, but there were no votes to get it done.

And now teachers are gonna try and save your kid’s year through their computer, working from their homes, changing everything about their lesson plans, overcome the tech issues and try to get their 30 kids to the finish line without losing a year or their teachings. That’s a lot of stepping up to expect when they don’t always get support politically for pushing back against government cuts and trying to protect the quality of their student’s education.

I guess I’m hoping we learn some lessons from this and make improvements, to support those we really rely on.
And not just with gestures, but actual change.

Last edited by elbows; 04-07-2020 at 07:08 AM.
  #108  
Old 04-07-2020, 08:23 AM
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Same old arguments for offshoring jobs. I am not talking about trade barriers. I am for economic security and control within our borders. We lose more quality jobs every year. They are not replaced with equal or better jobs.
Do you have any evidence this is true? The pandemic has kicked the economy in the ass, but until it happened - and it's kicked EVERY economy in the ass, even the ones we trade with - the number of jobs was fine, and they were good jobs.

At the end of 2019 the unemployment rate was 5.5 percent, which is quite low. The median salary was likely as high as it had ever been, even accounting for inflation (I say likely because it definitely was in 2018; 2019 numbers aren't reliably out yet.) Those are facts.

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The math is simple.
It is not at all simple, actually. The concept of comparative advantage isn't the easiest concept to grasp, but if you don't get it you cannot understand the impact of trade (ANY kind of trade - international, interprovincial, anything) at all.
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Last edited by RickJay; 04-07-2020 at 08:23 AM.
  #109  
Old 04-07-2020, 07:32 PM
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Premier Jason Kenney just gave projections for Alberta in a 15 minute speech. They expect up to 800,000 Albertans infected by the end of summer. That is the relatively optimistic assessment. One in six Albertans infected.

That number does seem high to me as the curve does not seem to be moving in that direction that quickly. We will see. Expect social isolation until at least end of May. That is really going to be hard on a lot of people.

https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/one-in-s...show-1.4886693

Last edited by Mikemike2; 04-07-2020 at 07:37 PM.
  #110  
Old 04-08-2020, 09:21 PM
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Yeah, two more months will be really tough. The economy will be totally devastated if we can't start rolling workplaces back up soon - not all of them, but ones reasonably safe to bring back on.

One can hope he's wrong.
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  #111  
Old 04-08-2020, 09:53 PM
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I and at least one co-worker got our first CERB payment of $2000 today (April 8th), direct deposit, in my case 2 and a half weeks after applying for EI after being laid off on the 20th of March. Given that the CERB program was only announced on the 25th of March, and legislation still had to be passed in Parliament, the federal government has been moving very quickly.
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  #112  
Old 04-09-2020, 12:48 AM
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Nevermind

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  #113  
Old 04-09-2020, 11:09 AM
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Our premiere did about a 1/2 hour presentation on the virus yesterday, discussing the models in detail, their assumptions, where the data comes from, other countries they are watching, what our supplies are, and what the route out of this would be after May. I was impressed.

It is refreshing to see a leader who knows in detail what he is talking about, has a frank public discussion, and is getting his information from experts. Kind of different than another leader who was seriously warned in November about this problem and can't talk without lying.
  #114  
Old 04-09-2020, 11:18 AM
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He made it very clear that the number of detected cases is a function of the tests being done. If they did 10 times more testing, there would be 10X more confirmed cases.
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Old 04-09-2020, 12:01 PM
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That is probably not true. It makes an error in assuming the populations are the same.

Allow me to expand; I just looked up the Ontario numbers, and 88,698 people have been tested, of whom 5,759 appear to have the virus.

Assuming that 886,980 tests would yield 57,590 infected people is not a logical assumption. The people who have been tested are disproportionately people who have presented an indication that a test is merited (e.g. they are sick) or they are suspected of having it based on being higher risk (they are in a household with a sick person, they just got back from Italy, etc.) Were you to randomly test an additional 798,282 people, you will be testing a sample of people who may not have as many sick and high probability infections, and so the percentage of infected people among those tested would likely fall.

Incidentally, if you're thinking the low percentage of infected people is good news, it's not. It would be MUCH better news if every single person tested was infected - what that low figure tells us, when you then compare it to the 200 dead and 200+ currently on ventilators, is that the disease is

1. Really, really dangerous if you get it, and
2. Has lots of room for growth.

The potential still exists for it to overwhelm the health care system.
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  #116  
Old 04-09-2020, 12:59 PM
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When I looked at the graph showing 800,000 infected in Alberta by the end of Summer, it only works if you assume there are multitudes of more infections that have not been tested or confirmed. The current numbers or graph does not get to 800,000 in that time period, with its current curve, or an increasing curve.

I agree testing was done on people the most likely to be infected. 10X more random tests would likely not yield exactly 10X more infections, I would also expect the percentage to be less. But it would bring identified infections up a lot, as the rate of infections as a percent of tests has held quite steady. 10X more tests (about 400,000) would probably make Alberta look like the most infected province in Canada. I don't mean to just speak about Alberta, just using it as an example and trying to work through the numbers.

As an example, every day we have a lower new case count, and you go look at how many tests were completed that day, it was also lower.

They are now expanding testing in the next hot spot - Calgary. As a strategy to get back to work, Alberta is working on making testing nearly universal.

Last edited by Mikemike2; 04-09-2020 at 01:01 PM.
  #117  
Old 04-09-2020, 02:00 PM
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In case you haven't seen it, here's a detailed document on Alberta's models and results, as of yesterday:

https://www.alberta.ca/assets/docume...projection.pdf
  #118  
Old 04-09-2020, 02:29 PM
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I'm watching the presentation by Dr Theresa Tam and others of the models used in the federal projections. Very interesting.
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  #119  
Old 04-09-2020, 02:34 PM
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In case you haven't seen it, here's a detailed document on Alberta's models and results, as of yesterday:

https://www.alberta.ca/assets/docume...projection.pdf
thanks.

Saskatchewan looks good. Quebec - yeesh.
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Old 04-09-2020, 02:35 PM
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A phrase I hadn't seen before: 'respiratory etiquette'.
  #121  
Old 04-09-2020, 03:12 PM
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I wrote a longer reply last night and edited it to "Nevermind." So here's the short version. I think the economy is going to recover quite quickly. I don't think that it will be very long before businesses return to normal-ish operations (with safeguards to prevent additional COVID waves from forming). Even small business will probably find that they can reopen in large part because I don't think most landlords are going to play hardball (they may even be legislated not to play hardball) with their former or new tenants. There's simply no advantage in it for them, and I'm counting on our "Canadianness" to kick in. Canadians have a sense of collective community, and I think with all of us pulling together we'll make something work. That's my prediction anyway. I really do think we're going to be ok because of who we are as a people.
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Old 04-09-2020, 03:22 PM
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I wrote a longer reply last night and edited it to "Nevermind." So here's the short version. I think the economy is going to recover quite quickly. I don't think that it will be very long before businesses return to normal-ish operations (with safeguards to prevent additional COVID waves from forming). Even small business will probably find that they can reopen in large part because I don't think most landlords are going to play hardball (they may even be legislated not to play hardball) with their former or new tenants. There's simply no advantage in it for them, and I'm counting on our "Canadianness" to kick in. Canadians have a sense of collective community, and I think with all of us pulling together we'll make something work. That's my prediction anyway. I really do think we're going to be ok because of who we are as a people.

I agree. It's not a supply restriction like '70s stagflation. Governments seem to understand the importance of helicopter money to keep aggregate demand above aggregate supply and avoiding a liquidity trap. Once businesses resume operations, it'll be back to mostly normal with occasional restrictions/shorter lockdowns.

What are landlords going to do, exactly? Kick out the tenants who can't pay because of the pandemic/lockdown and replace them with other tenants who will somehow be able to pay despite the pandemic/lockdown?

Banks and other creditors might use this to sweep up assets though although I understand they generally prefer not to do that.



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In case you haven't seen it, here's a detailed document on Alberta's models and results, as of yesterday:

https://www.alberta.ca/assets/docume...projection.pdf

Interesting that the 60-79YO age groupd has a 1.56% case fatality ratio while the 80+ has 25%. I'd be curious to see a year-by-year breakdown because I thought 70YOs were in worse shape than that.

I would rely more on hospitalization, ICU and deaths to determine the severity of the pandemic in a province since those are less subject to vagaries like more extensive testing.

Last edited by MichaelEmouse; 04-09-2020 at 03:25 PM.
  #123  
Old 04-09-2020, 06:26 PM
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BC's numbers are looking really good, the curve looks to have been flattened. The weather is amazing right now, so hopefully people keep up the good work for the long weekend and don't do anything stupid.
  #124  
Old 04-10-2020, 12:01 AM
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Quebec is still being hit really hard. Montreal is the New York City of Canada right now; a quarter of Canada's cases are there.
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  #125  
Old 04-11-2020, 12:39 AM
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A phrase I hadn't seen before: 'respiratory etiquette'.
How about speaking "moistly"? Ugh!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...ature=emb_logo
  #126  
Old 04-11-2020, 12:06 PM
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Everyone's laughing about the term but it's an important concept.

When you talk, spit flies out of your mouth and hits things in front of you. Everyone does it. With most people, neither speaker nor listener notices because the droplets being expelled are too small to see or feel, but they're there, and they can either hit someone directly or be suspended in the air for a little while. Those microscopic droplets are, however, absolute jumbo jets for viruses.

This is why surgical or fabric masks help; they can't stop a virus floating around on its own, but viruses don't generally float around alone in the air. Masks like that absolutely will stop those microscopic droplets, or most of them, that the viruses use to get around.
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  #127  
Old 04-12-2020, 06:24 AM
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Absolutely true and correct, but the terminology was so... unexpected. I rolled with laughter.
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Old 04-12-2020, 08:50 AM
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Good news from Saskatchewan: curve is definitely bending, as shown in the graph in the wiki article.

There are now more recovered cases (blue line) than there are active cases (green line).

Only four deaths so far (the black line).

(The orange line looks scary, but it's the cumulative of all cases: active, recovered and deaths, so not so significant).
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  #129  
Old 04-12-2020, 09:21 AM
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Meh, not much point of talking about "the curve" in Saskatchewan with 4 deaths total. Since I doubt they have kept the exact same testing protocols for the whole time, number of cases doesn't mean much.
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Old 04-12-2020, 09:47 AM
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Deaths is not how you know if the curve is flattening. They will flatten out weeks after the pandemic has.

You're right though that it's hard to tell if infections are going up or down. We aren't testing enough, and the standards change so it's hard to know any stats are accurate.

It has been noted in a number of sources now that here in Ontario, the crush of demand in ICUs is just not happening. Beds are available, ventilators unused, staff have capacity to help more patients. It's a good sign. Well, more precisely, it's not a BAD sign. There around 250 people in the province in ICU with COVID-19, which is 250 more than you'd want, but way under the province's capacity.

This despite the fact that COVID-19-attributed deaths are still more or less climbing; Doug Ford's prediction that we would reach two deaths an hour in April is still sadly possible, as there have recently been days it went over one death an hour. What is happening, though, perhaps predictably, is the disease is sweeping through the elderly population and killing people so quickly they never get to the hospital and might have been beyond help even if they had. The disaster at the seniors home in Bobcaygeon is the most awful example, of course, but on a lesser scale it's happening everywhere.

When we relax social distancing - and we have to, we cannot keep doing this all year - the LAST thing we can relax is seniors' facilities, and the province needs to start taking action right now. Rules have to be set and resources deployed to make them safe, to allow employees to go in and out without threatening anyone's health, to find ways to keep these people connected with loved ones in a safe manner.
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  #131  
Old 04-12-2020, 09:50 AM
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I follow the death/ICU rate because it's the only reliable metric to compare jurisdictions or even the same region over time. Every stat we get reflects past efforts, so why single out the death rate?

Last edited by CarnalK; 04-12-2020 at 09:52 AM.
  #132  
Old 04-12-2020, 09:52 AM
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The tests need to be administered by health care professionals. Should we be focussing their efforts on testing everyone, or gearing up for acute care in hospitals? Which is the best use of those health-care professionals’ time and skills?

I don’t know the answer, but “test everyone” has to be balanced against other needs of the health care system.
No they don't. The same technology that brought you home pregnancy tests and home blood-sugar tests (which requires a drop of blood) can bring you home antibody testing for covid-19.

I guess we might want some certification and not just self-reported test results. But for answering questions like "is it safe to visit my mom?" she and I would probably trust my own results. Heck, even for "can I watch TV with some friends?" I am really hoping for a rollout of massive quantities of home test kits.

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Sure, universal testing may not be job one. There are other priorities. But I would like to see a discussion of a gameplan to recover once social isolation has done it's job. And I would like the planning to start now so we are not again caught flat footed. If we need to ramp up testing kit production, I would like to know that it is in the works.
Yup, both virus and antibody testing are the key to getting things running again. There's no chance we will have a vaccine that's ready for prime time in less than a year, but we could have massive testing in a month or two if it's prioritized and funded.
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Old 04-12-2020, 10:11 AM
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I would say that effective treatment, an effective vaccine, and reliable home testing (if such a thing is possible) should be the priorities, in that order. All that a negative test result means is that you don't have it NOW. It's no guarantee you won't get it tomorrow.
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Old 04-12-2020, 11:27 AM
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Meh, not much point of talking about "the curve" in Saskatchewan with 4 deaths total. Since I doubt they have kept the exact same testing protocols for the whole time, number of cases doesn't mean much.
Fine. I'll shut up talking about the hinterlands. Obviously, only Central Canada is of importance.
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Old 04-12-2020, 11:50 AM
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A little touchy, aren't we? It has nothing to do with my disdain for the "hinterlands" that both my parents were born and raised in and I visited for Christmas for the first ten years of my life
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Old 04-12-2020, 01:45 PM
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Fine. I'll shut up talking about the hinterlands. Obviously, only Central Canada is of importance.
I'm rooting for Saskatchewan. Lots of family there, they are doing a lot of testing which is great, and they seem to have started with less initial infections.
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Old 04-12-2020, 03:08 PM
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Fine. I'll shut up talking about the hinterlands. Obviously, only Central Canada is of importance.
It's not that Saskatchewan doesn't matter, but more that the numbers are so small that it's hard to separate trends from normal variance. One infected nursing home would make Saskatchewan's numbers skyrocket, yet would tell us almost nothing about whether the curve is being bent or not in the general population.
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Old 04-12-2020, 08:18 PM
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40th anniversary of the start of the Marathon of Hope today. We could all use hope right now.
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Old 04-12-2020, 10:32 PM
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40th anniversary of the start of the Marathon of Hope today. We could all use hope right now.
Are you talking about Terry Fox? That was quite a story, with a very tragic ending.

I have a Facebook friend who is an ICU nurse in Winnipeg, and not much is happening COVID-wise in that part of the world. She sure hopes it stays that way.
  #140  
Old 04-13-2020, 09:03 AM
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Major airlifts from Chinese manufacturers of PPE ongoing in Canada:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/can...hina-1.5530259

In addition to traditional air cargo jets being deployed, if you scroll down a bit, there's a remarkable picture of the interior of a passenger Air Canada 777 with all the seats removed so it can function as a 100% cargo plane. I used to do that with my Dodge Caravan, but I've never seen it done with a jumbo jet! Quite a lot of room in there!
  #141  
Old 04-13-2020, 09:44 AM
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Don't give the airlines any ideas.

https://www.theonion.com/united-airl...-li-1819571115
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  #142  
Old 04-13-2020, 05:29 PM
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Originally Posted by nearwildheaven View Post
Are you talking about Terry Fox? That was quite a story, with a very tragic ending.

I have a Facebook friend who is an ICU nurse in Winnipeg, and not much is happening COVID-wise in that part of the world. She sure hopes it stays that way.
Yes I was talking about Terry Fox. I was 10 when he was running the Marathon of Hope and it is something I vividly remember. Hope feels in short supply these days.

We are having good numbers out here in BC and that is making me feel some hope. This is all so surreal and hard to get my mind around.
  #143  
Old 04-13-2020, 06:25 PM
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Yes I was talking about Terry Fox. I was 10 when he was running the Marathon of Hope and it is something I vividly remember. Hope feels in short supply these days.

We are having good numbers out here in BC and that is making me feel some hope. This is all so surreal and hard to get my mind around.
Over the weekend, a local police officer died in the line of duty (car accident) and they just reported on the news that a grade-school aged boy in another state ran a mile in his honor, something he does every day in the memory of fallen First Responders.
  #144  
Old 04-17-2020, 08:31 PM
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Just watching Governor Cuomo eviscerate Trump, regardless of the weak Trump tweet backs. It is nice to see a US politician who knows exactly what he is talking about and without referring to the words "powerful" and "never seen before." Cuomo left no doubt as to who would be deciding on when to open New York. Not Trump.

Cuomo said what I have been thinking, re-opening without a vaccine can only be done with mass testing. Multiple frequent tests for every person exposed to the public. Trump needs to come up with such a program, as it can only be done nationally. Trump is about a month past saying every American who wants a test can now get a test.

The point Cuomo made is that they currently calculate the infection rate in their state in New York at .9. That means one infected person infects less than one other person. And the curve goes down. A reinfection rate of less than 1 seems to be the magic number.

Do we know the reinfection rate for Canada and the provinces?

The numbers of infections in Alberta have gone up, and gone way beyond BC, a similar province. However, this is stated as a good thing, as it reflects a surge of testing in Alberta. Less testing just means less discovered cases. What do you think?

Last edited by Mikemike2; 04-17-2020 at 08:34 PM.
  #145  
Old 04-17-2020, 08:59 PM
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Do you have any evidence this is true? The pandemic has kicked the economy in the ass, but until it happened - and it's kicked EVERY economy in the ass, even the ones we trade with - the number of jobs was fine, and they were good jobs.

At the end of 2019 the unemployment rate was 5.5 percent, which is quite low. The median salary was likely as high as it had ever been, even accounting for inflation (I say likely because it definitely was in 2018; 2019 numbers aren't reliably out yet.) Those are facts.


It is not at all simple, actually. The concept of comparative advantage isn't the easiest concept to grasp, but if you don't get it you cannot understand the impact of trade (ANY kind of trade - international, interprovincial, anything) at all.
Wages have been stagnant for a long time. Inflation has eaten those wages up badly. Personal debt has increased steadily. Official inflation figures are highly selective and change regularly. It is obvious that when a large factory is moved overseas, those jobs go there too. No new factory is built here to replace it. Those jobs are gone. Employment rate is a raw figure. It does not show the quality of the employment. More new jobs are of low wage and quality. Also not full time or long term. The government lowers interest rates so people can borrow more to maintain a standard of living. In the short term. The low rates create bubbles here and there that increase inflation. House prices for instance. Inflation figures often exclude house prices and other things. And when crunch times such as these come. We must depend on the kindness of strangers. Free trade benefits a small, already very wealthy portion of the population. A lot of those people and businesses may not be in your own country. Not paying taxes or providing jobs.

China and the U.S. have recently demonstrated that free trade is used by them only when convenient and profitable. When they want stuff for themselves, trade is halted, even pirated. When they want you to toe their line, free trade becomes very less free.

Also. Most gains in wealth/wages has gone to the top 10 or less percent. Check figures of the wealth / wages excepting that 10 percent and it is even worse. Up to 25% of wealth and wage increase goes to the top 10%.

Last edited by Kedikat; 04-17-2020 at 09:02 PM.
  #146  
Old 04-17-2020, 09:00 PM
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Well, here in Edmonton cases have been flat for days. The same for all the other regions of the province except for Calgary, which appears to still be on an exponential growth curve. Over 70% of all cases in Alberta are from the Calgary area.

The difference between Calgary and the rest of the province is dramatic..

From what I can tell, no one really knows why. Calgary has a major international airport but so does Edmonton, albeit with fewer international flights. Some speculation that people aren't social distancing as much, but I don't know if there is evidence of that.

According to Alberta Health, only 37 people in the province in total have needed the ICU for Covid-19 related issues. We have something like 600-700 ICU beds available. Today there were no new deaths. And apparently Alberta now has the highest per capita testing rate in the world.
  #147  
Old 04-17-2020, 09:12 PM
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Wages have been stagnant for a long time. Inflation has eaten those wages up badly. Personal debt has increased steadily. Official inflation figures are highly selective and change regularly. It is obvious that when a large factory is moved overseas, those jobs go there too. No new factory is built here to replace it. Those jobs are gone. Employment rate is a raw figure. It does not show the quality of the employment. More new jobs are of low wage and quality. Also not full time or long term. The government lowers interest rates so people can borrow more to maintain a standard of living. In the short term. The low rates create bubbles here and there that increase inflation. House prices for instance. Inflation figures often exclude house prices and other things. And when crunch times such as these come. We must depend on the kindness of strangers. Free trade benefits a small, already very wealthy portion of the population. A lot of those people and businesses may not be in your own country. Not paying taxes or providing jobs.

China and the U.S. have recently demonstrated that free trade is used by them only when convenient and profitable. When they want stuff for themselves, trade is halted, even pirated. When they want you to toe their line, free trade becomes very less free.

Also. Most gains in wealth/wages has gone to the top 10 or less percent. Check figures of the wealth / wages excepting that 10 percent and it is even worse. Up to 25% of wealth and wage increase goes to the top 10%.
This was originally inspired by our lack of ppe equipment and the means to manufacture that equipment. In case this late reply is confusing. And The U.S. denying shipments. Also diverting shipments.

Last edited by Kedikat; 04-17-2020 at 09:13 PM.
  #148  
Old 04-17-2020, 09:15 PM
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Yes, Sam Stone, I could have said Calgary instead of Alberta, Calgary's rate of growth in new reported infections is high.

I take some selfish comfort in that the specific area I live in has about 7 active cases and they are isolated. But it seems every time they test, they find another 2% or more of new cases. That would mean 100s of infected people in my area who do not know it. Could be me, although I have no symptoms.

The growth is frustrating as we have been isolating for 3 weeks, it should be having an impact.

I have seen Edmonton's numbers and the rest of the province, and they look flat.
  #149  
Old 04-17-2020, 09:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Kedikat View Post
This was originally inspired by our lack of ppe equipment and the means to manufacture that equipment. In case this late reply is confusing. And The U.S. denying shipments. Also diverting shipments.
Where are you at? How bad are the shortages in your area?
  #150  
Old 04-17-2020, 09:45 PM
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Where are you at? How bad are the shortages in your area?
In AB. We are actually well stocked.Sending supplies to other areas in Canada.
Of course we can't produce everything in Canada. But I am particularly miffed that our public tax supported health system isn't supported as much as possible by in Canada manufacture. We pay for the services, but export so much of the financial and social returns. They could be reinvested via taxes on the production into the system.
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