Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #51  
Old 04-06-2020, 05:25 PM
Aspidistra is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 6,366
Sweden didn't "flatten". They had a weekend. Same thing happened last week, and to a certain extent the week before.

Divoc doesn't have the Monday data yet, but the Worldometer site does. 401 deaths -> 477 - back to a 19% increase, same as usual
  #52  
Old 04-06-2020, 05:42 PM
CarnalK's Avatar
CarnalK is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Posts: 20,120
The Monday weekly average is still lower this week. 27% v 20%.

Last edited by CarnalK; 04-06-2020 at 05:45 PM.
  #53  
Old 04-06-2020, 05:45 PM
Aspidistra is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 6,366
They did do a certain amount of covid response stuff over the past few weeks, not absolutely nothing. So it's not surprising if the rate goes down somewhat. But it didn't go down as much as the other Scandinavian countries, because they're not doing as much as the other Scandinavian countries
  #54  
Old 04-06-2020, 05:51 PM
DSeid's Avatar
DSeid is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 23,978
Again, are you actually looking at the curve when you say that? Two days is a weekend. Three to four is more a trend.

But sure dismiss the last several days as just the weekend. You are still faced with that the Sweden has run at 1.24 for its 17 day course since 1 death/million to Denmark's 1.22 ... not a huge difference and, again, better than most other Western countries were running for their first 17 days, much better than some. If they are going to demonstrate how much better everyone else's approaches are then they are sure taking their sweet time to do so!

Please note, I am surprised they are not doing much worse, and that Denmark is not doing much better. They really shouldn't be close at all.
  #55  
Old 04-06-2020, 05:51 PM
CarnalK's Avatar
CarnalK is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Posts: 20,120
It's often forgotten that lowering the curve is to protect your hospital capacity, not specifically to save the lives of covid-19 patients. So the question is whether more Swedes died per capita in four months compared to Denmark not the exact curve right now of covid-19 deaths.

Last edited by CarnalK; 04-06-2020 at 05:52 PM.
  #56  
Old 04-06-2020, 05:57 PM
CarnalK's Avatar
CarnalK is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Posts: 20,120
Quote:
Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
Again, are you actually looking at the curve when you say that? Two days is a weekend. Three to four is more a trend.

But sure dismiss the last several days as just the weekend. You are still faced with that the Sweden has run at 1.24 for its 17 day course since 1 death/million to Denmark's 1.22 ... not a huge difference and, again, better than most other Western countries were running for their first 17 days, much better than some. If they are going to demonstrate how much better everyone else's approaches are then they are sure taking their sweet time to do so!

Please note, I am surprised they are not doing much worse, and that Denmark is not doing much better. They really shouldn't be close at all.
My WAG now is that there must be some self limiting factor in the virus that we don't see yet. Further WAG, this virus is crazy more widespread already and mostly harmless except for the unlucky.
  #57  
Old 04-06-2020, 06:07 PM
Euphonious Polemic is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 12,962
Quote:
Originally Posted by CarnalK View Post
It's often forgotten that lowering the curve is to protect your hospital capacity, not specifically to save the lives of covid-19 patients. So the question is whether more Swedes died per capita in four months compared to Denmark not the exact curve right now of covid-19 deaths.
Current numbers:

Sweden; 47 deaths per million population
Norway; 14 deaths per million population


We'll see where these numbers go in the next weeks/months.
  #58  
Old 04-06-2020, 06:07 PM
Aspidistra is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 6,366
Swedish death rate increase:

Monday 30th - 33%
Tuesday 31st - 23%
Wednesday 1st - 33%
Thursday 2nd - 29%
Friday 3rd - 16%
Saturday 4th - 4%
Sunday 5th - 8%
Monday 6th - 19%

The possible slight weekly downturn is really nothing much compared to the it's-a-weekend dip. And their numbers aren't as good as other countries who have done more.
  #59  
Old 04-06-2020, 06:09 PM
Aspidistra is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 6,366
Quote:
Originally Posted by Euphonious Polemic View Post
Current numbers:

Sweden; 47 deaths per million population
Norway; 14 deaths per million population


We'll see where these numbers go in the next weeks/months.
Another way of putting this:

Two weeks ago, Norway's rank in "deaths per million" (from Worldometers) was 23rd. Last week they were 24th, now they're 29th

Denmark: 15th, to 17th, to 18th

Sweden: 16th, then stayed on 16th, right now 13th
  #60  
Old 04-06-2020, 06:31 PM
Francis Vaughan is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Adelaide, Australia
Posts: 5,319
Quote:
Originally Posted by CarnalK View Post
Maybe we should blindly follow Swedish plans from now on? This would be easier if there was a Scandinavian consensus here.
That is a major component of what the Swedes were reliant upon - there is a very strong social culture, and people don't need laws to make them behave in socially responsible ways. OTOH, the reducing rate of increase of deaths and infections can mean lots of different things. Including different rates of testing and reporting. But if taken at face value, they will not achieve herd immunity, so won't actually end up where they thought.

Acting with social responsibility versus enforced lockdown can mean pretty much the same economic issues. Here where I am in Oz there is no legally enforced lockdown on the populace. Other than closing restaurants and bars, and large gatherings, pretty much everything else is guidance. Even before the enforced closing of restaurants and bars they were doing really badly, and many were on the cusp of making the call to close. The government simply made the choice for them.

The choice for any country about how heavy handed they need to be in managing this will be driven in part by the social culture.
  #61  
Old 04-06-2020, 06:32 PM
DSeid's Avatar
DSeid is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 23,978
What is Norway doing very different than Denmark?

Looking it up it seems Norway is not as rigid as some. Beginning March 12 they announced
Quote:
closure of:

Cultural events

Sports events and organised sports activities both indoors and outdoors

Establishments in the hospitality industry except for places where food is served that can allow visitors to stay at least 1 meter away, such as canteens. Food should not be served as a buffet. The hospitality industry includes restaurants, bars, pubs and nightlife.

Gyms

Companies that offer hairdressing services, skin care, massage and body care, tattooing, piercing etc
Swimming pools, water parks etc

Schools and universities closed
The Norwegian Directorate of Health has decided to close all schools ranging from kindergartens through to universities.
That is a much narrower set of closures and controls than Denmark has done, yet they are doing much better?
  #62  
Old 04-06-2020, 06:46 PM
Aspidistra is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 6,366
They do have a tiny fraction of the population density that Denmark does too. I don't think that's the whole picture - after all, Spain's half the density of Italy, still getting flattened - but it's probably part of it
  #63  
Old 04-06-2020, 07:16 PM
DSeid's Avatar
DSeid is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 23,978
Quote:
Originally Posted by CarnalK View Post
My WAG now is that there must be some self limiting factor in the virus that we don't see yet. Further WAG, this virus is crazy more widespread already and mostly harmless except for the unlucky.
An alternate hypothesis is that quarantine level controls broadly implemented are not required to flatten the curve substantially; more targeted measures and chosen behaviors by those who rightly understand themselves to be at highest risk (often beginning before governmental edicts and guidelines are announced) may flatten the curve well enough.

My WAG though is similar to yours that SARS-CoV-2 infections are much more crazy widespread than most have thought, with many of the younger and healthier cohorts never even considering they had COVID-19 if they had any symptoms they noticed at all, and lots of silent community spread before the disease becomes recognized in the community as the norm not the exception.
  #64  
Old 04-07-2020, 02:34 AM
Pardel-Lux's Avatar
Pardel-Lux is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Berlin
Posts: 459
Quote:
Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
Pardel-Lux, have you actually bothered to look at the updated per million death rates curves for Sweden in comparison to other countries?

Exactly how much better results have other countries seen with their approaches? Comparing by day after 1 death per millions please.
I have this article as of today: it is in German, if you don't understand German I recommend translating it with deepl.com , it's much better than Google.
The I look at the FT corona page and Schweden does not look much worse than the other skandinavian countries, but not better either. But the deaths we see today are the ones who got sick ten days ago and who were infected ten days before that. So the question would be if Schweden has squandered those three weeks: the first article says yes, the data say maybe.
Swedens population is 10.3 Million (wikipedia), they have reached 477 deaths (Worldometer), that is just short of 50 deaths/Million (46.3, to be precise).
Norway has only 5.2 Million inhabitants, and 77 deaths: that is 14.8 deaths/Million.
Denmark: 5.8 Million, 187 deaths: 32 deaths/million
Finland: 5.53 Million, 27 deaths: 4.88 deaths/Million
I see a difference and it seems statistically relevant. And it seems to me the trend is worsening.
__________________
When I was younger I could remember anything, whether it had happened or not; but my faculties are decaying now and soon I shall be so I cannot remember any but the things that never happened. It is sad to go to pieces like this but we all have to do it.
Mark Twain
  #65  
Old 04-07-2020, 02:58 AM
Grim Render is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 1,411
Norway declared the epidemic under control yesterday.

It seems when the government started talking about social distancing everyone felt that at last there was an excuse not to have to deal with other people. People from the capital, the other side of the fjord, the municipality next door or other tiresome people. (Everybody). The governemnt was aiming for a Re of 1.4 they got something below 0.7
  #66  
Old 04-07-2020, 03:25 AM
Francis Vaughan is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Adelaide, Australia
Posts: 5,319
Quote:
Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
My WAG though is similar to yours that SARS-CoV-2 infections are much more crazy widespread than most have thought, with many of the younger and healthier cohorts never even considering they had COVID-19 if they had any symptoms they noticed at all, and lots of silent community spread before the disease becomes recognized in the community as the norm not the exception.
Not sure how that would fit with the expected reproduction rates and introduction times. Here in Oz there is pretty aggressive contact tracing, so much so that only a small number of known cases are of unknown providence. Almost all can be traced directly back to an infected traveller. If there were a large asymptomatic cohort we would expect many untraceable infections presenting, but we don't see them. I don't know how aggressive other countries are about this. But I can't see why patterns of infections should be wildly different.
  #67  
Old 04-07-2020, 06:09 AM
DSeid's Avatar
DSeid is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 23,978
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pardel-Lux View Post
... I see a difference and it seems statistically relevant. And it seems to me the trend is worsening.
No arguing there. The Nordic pool is doing much better than most other Western countries have done, and the others are doing better than Sweden is in a statistically relevant way.

But a "statistically relevant" difference between Sweden and the rest of the Nordic pool, still apparently on track to stay within their limited surge capacity, still better than most other Western countries have seen, is quite a different thing than the cautionary tale for all others to see that you were setting them up as.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Francis Vaughan View Post
Not sure how that would fit with the expected reproduction rates and introduction times. Here in Oz there is pretty aggressive contact tracing, so much so that only a small number of known cases are of unknown providence. Almost all can be traced directly back to an infected traveller. If there were a large asymptomatic cohort we would expect many untraceable infections presenting, but we don't see them. I don't know how aggressive other countries are about this. But I can't see why patterns of infections should be wildly different.
I did try to state carefully when I phrased it as "lots of silent community spread before the disease becomes recognized in the community as the norm not the exception" ... Australia's course of it so far (and they are early yet, only 3 days past 1 death/million and not yet to 2 deaths/million) has not been the norm, and is closer to the exception.
  #68  
Old 04-07-2020, 03:26 PM
Pardel-Lux's Avatar
Pardel-Lux is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Berlin
Posts: 459
Quote:
Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
No arguing there. The Nordic pool is doing much better than most other Western countries have done, and the others are doing better than Sweden is in a statistically relevant way.

But a "statistically relevant" difference between Sweden and the rest of the Nordic pool, still apparently on track to stay within their limited surge capacity, still better than most other Western countries have seen, is quite a different thing than the cautionary tale for all others to see that you were setting them up as.
[...]
It seems to me we are approaching this situation from two very different mindsets (which is legitimate). You are looking for the best news and want to find comfort. You are looking for a panglossian best world where the solution is near. I see what could go wrong. I don't want it to become bad, but fear it will.
There are too many variables and nobody can (yet) explain the differences between countries. We see that some differences are stark an unexpected. You think the scandinavians are doing better, even the Swedes, though they are the worst in the North. I suggest you look somewhere else: Germany. They (we) are doing very well concerning the death rate (the infection rate not so much). Nobody knows why. Perhaps it's the ICUs, we have more than most other countries and people are getting treatment in time. Let's hope we can keep it up. Ah! And it's free of charge, so people are not afraid to use the system.
Sweden is about to get much worse, I am still of the opinion. So bad that they are about to change tack and do as all others do. What has kept Scandinavians disease-low for so long? Perhaps their way of living, more isolated than in the South (Italy & Spain come to my mind). That makes transmission slower, but keeps it just as prevalent on the longer term. The longer term is starting to happen now.
Concerning Berlin, where I am, I can tell you we are not keeping our distance. I was in Brussels just two weeks ago (yes, we still travel - by car in my case, all on my own, so I was isolated) and they are much stricter concerning isolation and keeping the distance. I was in the Viktoria-Louise-Platz today, a very nice square. It was full. The bars and restaurants were closed, but people sat on the tables in the sun (they leave them outside, just chain them so they don't get stolen). People walk the dogs and play with children, talk to the neighbors, sit on the lawn drinking beer (drinking beer on the street is usually not forbidden in Germany, but it is now: they still do it) and play music. Still, only two people died yesterday (see link above). Something is not right or about to change.
I hope I am wrong: I am in the middle of it as well.
__________________
When I was younger I could remember anything, whether it had happened or not; but my faculties are decaying now and soon I shall be so I cannot remember any but the things that never happened. It is sad to go to pieces like this but we all have to do it.
Mark Twain
  #69  
Old 04-07-2020, 03:42 PM
CarnalK's Avatar
CarnalK is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Posts: 20,120
I think you're off. Dseid is somewhat conservative in his projections but he isn't just looking for good news and not naive about how bad even his conservative estimates would be. His main position has been that western countries have basically all started to level off (drop below 20% daily increase) around 2 weeks after hitting 1 death/million.

Last edited by CarnalK; 04-07-2020 at 03:42 PM.
  #70  
Old 04-07-2020, 06:09 PM
DSeid's Avatar
DSeid is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 23,978
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pardel-Lux View Post
It seems to me we are approaching this situation from two very different mindsets (which is legitimate). You are looking for the best news and want to find comfort. ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by CarnalK View Post
I think you're off. Dseid is somewhat conservative in his projections but he isn't just looking for good news and not naive about how bad even his conservative estimates would be. His main position has been that western countries have basically all started to level off (drop below 20% daily increase) around 2 weeks after hitting 1 death/million.
Correct CarnalK.

Pardel-Lux, I am most certainly not looking for "good news". I have been, and continue to, try to parse out what we do and do not know. Things don't have to be zombie apocalypse to be bad. Once again, a bad flu-level event occurring in a 5 week window rather than a 5 month window is very very very very bad, overwhelming surge capacity of most health systems across the world potentially by severalfold. I am very aware of how limited in utility the models are in the absence of critical key inputs, which we right now simply do not have to any degree of confidence. I believe we have a responsibility to be careful in stating what we do and do NOT know, and see many on this board stating as fact things that are best one set of guesses.*

You see differences that are stark and unexpected; I see fairly frequent commonalities that are remarkable and unexpected, even in the face of very different governmental approaches, very different cultural norms regarding physical distance/lifestyle, and very different age group demographics. Given the varied demographics (age, baseline health status, smoking frequency, and more), cultural norms, lifestyles, adequacy of health systems, and timings of governmental responses, I'd expect stark differences and could rattle off a bunch of potential reasons for the differences on a moment's notice. But such commonalities ... that is surprising.

CarnalK has pointed out the tendency that almost all of the Western countries (Germany inclusive) have had to slow down in deaths/million rate at around the 2 week mark after hitting 1 death/million. By the 20 day mark it becomes more consistent with all that have passed that mark continuing to flatten out from there. We can even include South Korea and Iran in this mix. I'll throw in a few that are only up to day 19:

South Korea the low at 1.06, and France suddenly counting some from past days that they had not included before an outlier at the top, but the vast majority clustered at 1.07 to 1.11, median of the broad group at 1.10, and all flattening out more from there. Their curves are all amazingly similar in shapes to each other and hitting similar growth trajectories from that point on. Despite different cultural norms, different demographics, and different official policy approaches.

That is a simple observation.

The speculative hypothesis is that those countries that have not hit those points yet will follow similar trajectories as well.

One can also hypothesize as to why the curves are so similar in shape, even as the absolute numbers of deaths vary significantly. It could be because actual behavior changes that have the most impact occur on similar time courses before governmental action has a chance to have much impact. It could be because of characteristics of the disease. I could be a combination of both or some other explanation I cannot think of.

Sweden not doing MUCH worse than Denmark by this point, and worse than most other Western countries, is something that should give pause to those who believe that strict quarantines are the only way to flatten the curve at all. It surprised me, I'll admit. If they roughly join the other countries in that 1.07 to 1.11 cluster by day 20, which is in two days and before the week end (!) then the prediction that their approach is a definitive disaster and that they are "about to get much worse" begins to become falsified, yes?


*Please note, this is not making any statement about how one should respond in the face of uncertain information. If there is a reasonable chance that a hurricane is going to make landfall as a Cat 5 dead on at the barrier island my MIL lives on, I would strongly advise she comply with evacuation orders, and not tolerate her arguing that they don't really know that it will hit there. It would still have been the right choice if the storm ended up not being so bad after all or shifted course.
  #71  
Old 04-07-2020, 08:00 PM
Francis Vaughan is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Adelaide, Australia
Posts: 5,319
There is a difference between comparing government mandated isolation behaviour and what is actually occurring. Sweden has little in the way of laws prescribing behaviour. But the advice to citizens is much the same as anywhere else. They have a country where people tend to take the advice.

So, a much more difficult question arises. Can we attribute the changing rates to actual behaviour, or to as yet unknown rates of spread through an asymptomatic subset of the populace?

Dunno. I suspect not. Comparing the different levels of government mandated lockdown is only a proxy for actual behaviour. As are estimates of asymptomatic cases when there is no random testing. I really wish every country out there would get on with even a small scale proper random test regime. There is an argument that the tests remain a limited resource, but better information right now on this question is almost certainly worth the effort.

ETA Seems there is some progress on this front.

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-...to-coronavirus

Last edited by Francis Vaughan; 04-07-2020 at 08:05 PM.
  #72  
Old 04-07-2020, 08:31 PM
CarnalK's Avatar
CarnalK is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Posts: 20,120
You can't be that dismissive of government edicts. The simple and well recorded fact is that everyone kept going to gathering spaces until they were closed down.
  #73  
Old 04-07-2020, 08:41 PM
Francis Vaughan is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Adelaide, Australia
Posts: 5,319
Quote:
Originally Posted by CarnalK View Post
You can't be that dismissive of government edicts. The simple and well recorded fact is that everyone kept going to gathering spaces until they were closed down.
"Everyone" is the big question. No doubt there were media reports and videos of people out and about, but you can be pretty sure they were selectively shot. The effect of compliance has a non-linear effect on R. We really just don't know where the parameters sit. There are other reports that suggest that the majority of Swedes were indeed complying with the recommendations. Certainly the work from home cohort was very large. I work with a large Swedish company, and I know they sent their workers home weeks ago. Indeed the company ethos is one of very high social responsibility, and to be ahead of any recommendations, let alone any legal requirements. I don't imagine they are alone.
  #74  
Old 04-07-2020, 08:44 PM
leahcim is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Boulder, CO
Posts: 3,761
Quote:
Originally Posted by Francis Vaughan View Post
Dunno. I suspect not. Comparing the different levels of government mandated lockdown is only a proxy for actual behaviour.
There are published reports based on Google location data for various regions (including Sweden) at https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ which are probably a better proxy for actual behaviour.

Picking off a couple of numbers, Sweden's "Retail and Recreation" trend is down 24% from baseline, while "Parks" are up 43%. By comparison the numbers for New York (State) are -62% and -47% respectively.
  #75  
Old 04-08-2020, 01:27 AM
Pardel-Lux's Avatar
Pardel-Lux is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Berlin
Posts: 459
I hear what you say, I am sorry I used the word panglossian, that was not well thought.
Maybe being half Spanish, having family in Italy and living in Germany makes me more pessimistic. A colleague of mine in Brussels died too, that felt like a close hit. In Germany we have it good so far, at least that is the feeling, but what family and friends tell me from Spain and Italy is heart breaking. Sorry if my words were off. That is not an excuse, it is an explanation and an apology.
__________________
When I was younger I could remember anything, whether it had happened or not; but my faculties are decaying now and soon I shall be so I cannot remember any but the things that never happened. It is sad to go to pieces like this but we all have to do it.
Mark Twain
  #76  
Old 04-08-2020, 02:25 AM
GreenWyvern's Avatar
GreenWyvern is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cape Town
Posts: 2,306
Let's compare the current death rate per million for Sweden with other countries in the region:

Denmark - 35
Norway - 16
Finland - 6
Iceland - 18
Estonia - 16
Latvia - 1
Lithuania - 6

Sweden - 59

Sweden's death rate is 70% higher than the next highest country, Denmark - which is itself far higher than others in the region.
  #77  
Old 04-08-2020, 03:07 AM
Francis Vaughan is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Adelaide, Australia
Posts: 5,319
Quote:
Originally Posted by leahcim View Post
There are published reports based on Google location data for various regions (including Sweden) at https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ which are probably a better proxy for actual behaviour.

Picking off a couple of numbers, Sweden's "Retail and Recreation" trend is down 24% from baseline, while "Parks" are up 43%. By comparison the numbers for New York (State) are -62% and -47% respectively.
The Google numbers are really interesting. Parks are all over the place everywhere. Different counties in NY are seeing massive spikes in park numbers as well. Given a lot of places are giving a dispensation for personal exercise outdoors we may be seeing that reflected in the parks utilisation. The graph on park usage is so wildly varying that the one number summary (which seems to simply be the number on the day at the end of the sampling period) is basically useless.

Perhaps more interesting is Recreation & Retail and Workplace. Sweden is -24% and -18%, which isn't anything special. Taiwan's numbers are basically flat. South Korea not far from Sweden, but actually less of a lockdown. New Zealand is -91% and -33%. Which is huge. I am starting to wonder how much the ability to isolate the country is playing into the infection numbers. That is a big variable that is hard to capture.

The numbers are a week old, so although dated in terms of understanding how current compliance is working, they are not bad for relating to infections and deaths. The lags make this all a bit difficult.
  #78  
Old 04-08-2020, 03:39 AM
Juggler is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Göteborg, Sweden
Posts: 307
Sweden does not have a do nothing approach. For example everyone gets sick pay from the first day now with at least the 80% pay (used to be one probation day). The agency in charge - Folkhälsomyndigheten - say we are in it for the long haul and want to lessen the compliance fatigue. The agency is a publih health agency and not just disease control so have a broader scope in their thinking. I hope the strategy is right for our country but I think it's too early to tell.
__________________
.
  #79  
Old 04-08-2020, 04:17 AM
Aspidistra is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 6,366
Nice to have someone actually in Sweden (I assume?) joining the discussion.

When you say 'everyone gets sick pay from the first day' - is that people who are diagnosed with coronavirus? People who think they might be sick and need to stay home just in case? Is it easy to get tested?
  #80  
Old 04-08-2020, 05:42 AM
Juggler is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Göteborg, Sweden
Posts: 307
Yes, I'm a swedish person in Sweden.

Before Covid-19 for any sickness that made you unable to work you had one probation day with no pay, day 2-14 you get 80-90% paid by your employer and after that the state pays (unsure how much).

Post Covid-19 you get 700 SEK (about 70 USD) the first day and then the 80%-90% of your salary until day 21. All of this is paid by the state. You don't need a doctor's confirmation until day 22.

This is for all types of sickness, not just Covid-19.

It's not easy to get tested, you only get tested if you are admitted to a hospital, work in a hospital or live in a retirement home. This is one area I wish would improve but epidemiology is not my area of expertise (I'm a tax lawyer) so I defer to and trust Dr Tegnell - Sweden's Dr Fauci.

The public health agency have daily press briefings. One early error was that information was not available in more languages.
  #81  
Old 04-08-2020, 06:27 AM
Francis Vaughan is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Adelaide, Australia
Posts: 5,319
Quote:
Originally Posted by Juggler View Post
It's not easy to get tested, you only get tested if you are admitted to a hospital, work in a hospital or live in a retirement home.
Ouch. That is a problem. We know that it is really hard to compare infection numbers, but this would suggest that Sweden may be significantly under-reporting relative to other nations.

Do you know how much contact tracing is being done? This is a pretty important task both for control, but also just to have any sense of the numbers involved.
  #82  
Old 04-08-2020, 06:59 AM
Francis Vaughan is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Adelaide, Australia
Posts: 5,319
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aspidistra View Post
Swedish death rate increase:

Monday 30th - 33%
Tuesday 31st - 23%
Wednesday 1st - 33%
Thursday 2nd - 29%
Friday 3rd - 16%
Saturday 4th - 4%
Sunday 5th - 8%
Monday 6th - 19%

The possible slight weekly downturn is really nothing much compared to the it's-a-weekend dip. And their numbers aren't as good as other countries who have done more.
And it seems it was nothing but a short term dip. They are back at a solid 1.24 daily average again. This is really worrying. Given the lag time between introducing restrictions and them taking effect, the simplistic numbers would suggest they will reach over a 1000 deaths a day before it gets better. Somewhere in here their medical system gets overwhelmed, and things could get very grim. This is seriously not good.

As noted earlier, mobility restrictions don't seem to have had much of an impact on the populace as one (and certainly I) might have hoped for. Numbers from elsewhere seem to support that R is pretty robust until restrictions are screwed down quite tight.
  #83  
Old 04-08-2020, 07:04 AM
DSeid's Avatar
DSeid is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 23,978
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pardel-Lux View Post
I hear what you say, I am sorry ...
No worries! No insult received, just a desire to correct the misperception.
  #84  
Old 04-08-2020, 10:36 AM
casdave is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 8,537
Comparing mortality rates per million population only works if you compare like with like.

Each nation has its own Coronavirus schedule, so perhaps it would be better to compare death rates per million at the same point in the schedule of each nation.

So one might set a point of -say- the first fatality and examine the data again at stages of perhaps 10 days apart, that would give some comparable information and would also probably suggest which countries are genuinely having an impact on the growth rate through their control measures.

If that were done, then how would Sweden, or any other nation compare?

The one I find most scary is the US, they took very weak measures quite late on and in many states those measures were simply ignored and they are pretty much in very early days into the pandemic.
  #85  
Old 04-08-2020, 10:44 AM
DSeid's Avatar
DSeid is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 23,978
The curves we are referencing all start at 1 death per million as day zero. So yes the reference is to the same “point in the schedule.”
  #86  
Old 04-08-2020, 10:48 AM
RickJay is offline
Charter Jays Fan
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Oakville, Canada
Posts: 43,056
Quote:
Originally Posted by Francis Vaughan View Post
The Google numbers are really interesting. Parks are all over the place everywhere. Different counties in NY are seeing massive spikes in park numbers as well. Given a lot of places are giving a dispensation for personal exercise outdoors we may be seeing that reflected in the parks utilisation. The graph on park usage is so wildly varying that the one number summary (which seems to simply be the number on the day at the end of the sampling period) is basically useless.
"Park" is also rather a broad term. In an urban setting many "parks" are small, designated activity areas that fill up quickly and that can be cordoned off with relative ease. In suburban and rural areas, "parks" often mean very large spaces with no access restrictions, which in fact are often indistinguishable from just "A place no one has built anything yet."
__________________
Providing useless posts since 1999!
  #87  
Old 04-08-2020, 11:02 AM
Juggler is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Göteborg, Sweden
Posts: 307
Quote:
Originally Posted by Francis Vaughan View Post
Ouch. That is a problem. We know that it is really hard to compare infection numbers, but this would suggest that Sweden may be significantly under-reporting relative to other nations.

Do you know how much contact tracing is being done? This is a pretty important task both for control, but also just to have any sense of the numbers involved.
Not sure of the details but Covid-19 falls under the disease control law so contact tracing is being done.
__________________
.
  #88  
Old 04-10-2020, 12:41 AM
GreenWyvern's Avatar
GreenWyvern is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cape Town
Posts: 2,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenWyvern View Post
Let's compare the current death rate per million for Sweden with other countries in the region:

Denmark - 35
Norway - 16
Finland - 6
Iceland - 18
Estonia - 16
Latvia - 1
Lithuania - 6

Sweden - 59

Sweden's death rate is 70% higher than the next highest country, Denmark - which is itself far higher than others in the region.
Updated death rates per million, two days on:

Sweden - 59 ➔ 79

Denmark - 35 ➔ 41
Norway - 16 ➔ 20
Finland - 6 ➔ 8
Iceland - 18 ➔18
Estonia - 16 ➔ 18
Latvia - 1 ➔ 2
Lithuania - 6 ➔ 6

Sweden's death rate is still going up rapidly compared to other countries in the region, not leveling out. The graphs don't look good either.
  #89  
Old 04-10-2020, 01:21 AM
Aspidistra is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 6,366
So there's one thing I don't understand about the Swedish data.

The Worldometer site has a count of "Serious, Critical" cases, which is currently up to 719.

Other information sources I've read have said pretty consistently that Sweden has about 5 ICU beds per 100,000 people, ie about 500 in the country

So how is their hospital system not overwhelmed right now already?

I'm assuming the answer is likely to be some combination of 'not updating when people leave hospital' and/or 'outsourcing some of their sick to a neighbor country' (I hear France has sent about 80 patients to Germany already). But it would be interesting to figure out which
  #90  
Old 04-10-2020, 02:22 AM
Francis Vaughan is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Adelaide, Australia
Posts: 5,319
I assume that ICU == critical, and serious == hospital bed.

Some countries have about doubled the number of effective ICU places by taking over surgical recovery. Normally people don't spend long in recovery, but the facilities are not too far off ICU. Especially if mechanical ventilation is not yet needed.

The Swedes are not providing very good numbers. This is never a good thing. Always seems to be a hallmark of something wrong under the covers. Whether it be incompetence, denial, or structural problems, who knows? But when the numbers are askew I worry.

Last edited by Francis Vaughan; 04-10-2020 at 02:23 AM.
  #91  
Old 04-10-2020, 03:21 AM
Heffalump and Roo is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 4,495
An opinion piece on whether Sweden's approach to the coronavirus is working in the Washington Post.

Is Sweden’s lax approach to the coronavirus backfiring?

Quote:
For people suffering lockdowns across the world, Sweden’s approach might appear tempting to emulate. If Swedes can continue their daily lives and keep their economy going at no higher cost in terms of health, why not pursue the same strategy?
. . .
In particular, Sweden seems to have failed to protect its most vulnerable citizens, in part by relying on speculative cultural theories.
. . .
There are now alarming reports that the virus has spread to one-third of nursing homes in Stockholm, which has resulted in rising fatalities. While it is true that Swedes rarely live with their parents, older citizens are hardly isolated: The Scandinavian model simply outsources care from families to caretakers who visit dozens of clients every week.
. . .
Nor is there much indication that the Swedish economy is weathering the storm better than comparable countries. The drop in the stock market and the rise in unemployment are roughly in line with other advanced economies. According to official Swedish estimates, Sweden’s GDP is expected to contract by 3.4 percent this year, which is better than the 5.5 percent decline projected in a euro zone dragged down by Italy and Spain, but worse than the 2.9 percent decline prognosticated for the United States.
. . .
In the past few weeks, the country has experienced a bizarre nationalistic wave dubbed “public health nationalism” (”folkhälsonationalism”), which celebrates Sweden as an island of common sense in a sea of panic and resistance to science.
. . .
Time will tell, but we fear that Sweden has picked the worst possible time to experiment with national chauvinism.
I've been following this story for a while now, thinking that watching the numbers would give an indication of whether social distancing works. In the beginning, it seemed like a scientific issue of interest. Over time, it became more political. People against social distancing used one set of numbers to compare with to say that social distancing didn't matter. People for social distancing used different sets of numbers for comparison.

Early on,one article says that Sweden wasn't going to count infection rates at all. Sweden Stops Counting Number of Coronavirus Infections – “The strategy is to achieve herd immunity” That was in mid-March. Some time after that, I read that herd immunity was never the strategy.

Then the argument seemed to be that locking down would create more death through economic destruction: Sweden determined it has smarter strategy for dealing with COVID-19

Quote:
Lockdowns might save lives in the short-term, but risk a second wave of deaths, and years of ill-health from unemployment and deprivation.
It seemed pretty cruel to make a calculation that people dying now is better than possibly people dying later. But if the economic calculations in the Washington Post article are right and the death toll from the coronavirus continues to rise, there may be both in Sweden. If that happens, I wonder if the government would lose some of the trust that many of its citizens place in it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aspidistra View Post
Other information sources I've read have said pretty consistently that Sweden has about 5 ICU beds per 100,000 people, ie about 500 in the country

So how is their hospital system not overwhelmed right now already?

This article
says that Sweden has set up makeshift beds up to 1,200. They're quickly approaching that number.

Quote:
A few miles south of Stockholm's centre, the military is working alongside civilian contractors to build a field hospital just in case.

Sixty makeshift wards are being erected in a vast exhibition centre. In all, 1,200 patients could be cared for.

Dozens of beds are lined up ready to be moved into place once the partitions are in place and the ventilators installed.
  #92  
Old 04-10-2020, 03:49 AM
Francis Vaughan is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Adelaide, Australia
Posts: 5,319
Google's mobility change tracking just updated, and the latest figures for Swede are available. There has been no change in their movements. Numbers good up until the 5th. OTOH, most countries have settled down to a constant number over the last week. Just at significantly different numbers. Comparing absolute numbers is probably no terribly useful, as the metrics are very broad, and significant differences in geography exist. The numbers seem to be simply relative to an averaged baseline, so weekly variations in normal patterns are not normalised out.

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobi..._Report_en.pdf
  #93  
Old 04-10-2020, 07:41 AM
Mikkel is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Copenhagen
Posts: 192
Aftonbladet print a document that has been leaked.
Quote:
I ett dokument som gått ut till ansvariga läkare på Karolinska universitetssjukhuset, och som Aftonbladet har tagit del av, listas vilka patientgrupper som ska få intensivvård och vilka som ska bortprioriteras om coronaepidemin leder till platsbrist.

För dem med en biologisk ålder över 80 är det inte aktuellt med intensivvård, enligt dokumentet. Det samma gäller personer över 70 som har signifikant svikt i mer än ett organsystem. Personer mellan 60 och 70 som har svikt i mer än två organsystem ska också bortprioriteras.

Svikt i organsystem kan till exempel handla om människor med sjukdomar i hjärta, lungor och njurar. (Respiration, cirkulation, njurfunktion, som det står i dokumentet).

Det framgår också av dokumentet att patienter som redan intensivvårdas ska kunna få intensivvården avbruten om de tillhör någon av ovanstående kategorier.
Google Translate:
Quote:
In a document that went to responsible doctors at Karolinska University Hospital, and which Aftonbladet has taken note of, lists which patient groups should receive intensive care and which should be prioritized if the corona epidemic leads to a lack of space.

For those with a biological age over 80, intensive care is not required, according to the document. The same applies to people over 70 who have significant failure in more than one organ system. Persons between 60 and 70 who have failed in more than two organ systems should also not be given priority.

For example, organ failure may be about people with heart, lung, and kidney diseases. (Respiration, circulation, renal function, as stated in the document).

The document also states that patients who are already in intensive care should be able to have the intensive care interrupted if they belong to any of the above categories.
I guess the authorities are a bit worried.
  #94  
Old 04-10-2020, 07:57 AM
DSeid's Avatar
DSeid is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 23,978
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenWyvern View Post
Updated death rates per million, two days on:

Sweden - 59 ➔ 79

Denmark - 35 ➔ 41
Norway - 16 ➔ 20
Finland - 6 ➔ 8
Iceland - 18 ➔18
Estonia - 16 ➔ 18
Latvia - 1 ➔ 2
Lithuania - 6 ➔ 6

Sweden's death rate is still going up rapidly compared to other countries in the region, not leveling out. The graphs don't look good either.
Again in my mind the number that matters is where is is relative to the day in the progression (using the day of 1 death/million as the origin). Sweden at 1.15 is indeed not yet consistently slowing down and is running higher than their neighbors. More worrisome for them is that a majority of other Western countries have had their rate more consistently slowing down by this day into the progression

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heffalump and Roo View Post
An opinion piece on whether Sweden's approach to the coronavirus is working in the Washington Post.

Is Sweden’s lax approach to the coronavirus backfiring?



I've been following this story for a while now, thinking that watching the numbers would give an indication of whether social distancing works. ...
I saw that opinion piece too and was a bit annoyed that the only data they offered was the meaningless CFR based off of test numbers. It may be that they will overwhelm their system, but the case of that was not well made in that bit.

I do not think the actual question potentially answered by following their approach was "whether social distancing works" but whether a less draconian approach to social distancing works well enough, at least in that specific cultural and demographic circumstance. If their current deaths rate had dropped down by this point to 1.11 or less the hypothesis that the draconian approach is always required would have been falsified. If their rate does not drop off significantly more over the next few days then the hypothesis in their culture a more draconian approach is not required begins to look falsified.
  #95  
Old 04-10-2020, 08:21 AM
Elendil's Heir is offline
SDSAB
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: 221B Baker St.
Posts: 90,128
Here's a pretty good CNN overview of the Swedish situation: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/europ...ntl/index.html
  #96  
Old 04-10-2020, 08:50 AM
GreenWyvern's Avatar
GreenWyvern is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cape Town
Posts: 2,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
Again in my mind the number that matters is where is is relative to the day in the progression (using the day of 1 death/million as the origin).
Well, that's easy enough to see on the Worldometer site.

Sweden - population ~10 million
Norway, Denmark, Finland - population ~5 million

Sweden reached ~10 deaths on March 18
Norway and Denmark reached ~5 deaths on March 18 and 19 respectively
Finland reached ~5 deaths on March 26

So Sweden, Norway, and Denmark are at the same point on their curves, Finland is about a week behind.

Currently Sweden has 2x deaths/m as Denmark, and 4x deaths/m as Norway - at the same point on their curves.
  #97  
Old 04-10-2020, 09:00 AM
The Librarian's Avatar
The Librarian is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Delft
Posts: 1,305
Can I just say that I’m highly amused by Americans worrying about Sweden?
__________________
Oook!
  #98  
Old 04-10-2020, 09:23 AM
CarnalK's Avatar
CarnalK is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Posts: 20,120
Green Wyvern isn't American. Neither am I. Think DSeid is the only American on this page of the discussion. Hopefully that doesn't diminish your amusement too much.


The real question is whether Sweden stays within their hospital capacity, which so far they seem to be doing fine with.

Last edited by CarnalK; 04-10-2020 at 09:25 AM.
  #99  
Old 04-10-2020, 09:40 AM
GreenWyvern's Avatar
GreenWyvern is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cape Town
Posts: 2,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Librarian View Post
Can I just say that I’m highly amused by Americans worrying about Sweden?
It's not that people are 'worrying' about Sweden, it's that we have a good comparison of the effect of following different policies in similar countries.


In fact, the USA is doing a bit worse than Sweden.

USA reached ~1 death/m on Mar 22, Sweden on Mar 18, so the US is about 4 days behind on the curve.

Yesterday the US death rate was ~50/m, and on Apr 5 (at a similar point on their curve) Sweden was at ~40/m, so the US is doing 25% worse.

Sweden about doubled their death rate in the last 4 days, and if the US does the same or a little worse, they may be at 35,000 total deaths in 4 days time.
  #100  
Old 04-13-2020, 07:38 PM
DSeid's Avatar
DSeid is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 23,978
Reasonable time for an update. With recognition that the last three days may again reflect some weekend reporting bias with some uptick likely as those numbers get reported during the next couple of days, but still looking at the overall trend.

Sweden has clearly had significantly more deaths per million to date since hitting 1 death per million than their Nordic peer group has. About 89 for Sweden to about 49 for fairly well matched Denmark. Average daily growth rate for the last week 1.10 Sweden to 1.06 Denmark.

Weekend reporting lull or not the overall curve for Sweden seems to be following Switzerland's (which has engage in a much more stringent approach), is flattening out some, and as of yet does not seem to be overwhelming their health system. They have not yet peaked however so they may yet reach that point, may yet be able to be declared a disaster. And Denmark for its sake is already at a point of starting to loosen its restrictions some with plans to bring kids back to school this week and soon may begin to allow some back to work.
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:40 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2019 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017