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  #151  
Old 04-28-2020, 08:37 AM
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Originally Posted by asahi View Post
See, I get it. I disagree like hell, but I don't think this is batshit crazy.

I do think that getting out in the streets, hoisting a confederate flag, and holding big signs saying Trump 2020 is kinda batshit, though.

But I think even some democrat-leaning voters are mildly skeptical of whether we really have to live weeks and months on-end locked in our basements and binging on Netflix.
I think we can all (here) agree that getting out in public to wave a flag is batshit. But let that shit slide, those are the Darwin award winners.

The bottom line is the goal posts have been moving the entire time. First it was flatten the curve, it's pretty flat, now it's we can't let anyone contact this virus. The stay home order is simply unsustainable, we need a plan to get out from under that order.

Gov Abbott is green lighting people to go back to work on Friday (May 1st with all sorts of safety protocol. Masks, distancing, 25% capacity of restaurants etc ,but it is the right call.

Even with that done, I can almost guarantee that you see very little movement at first. Also the right call.
  #152  
Old 04-28-2020, 10:12 AM
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The bottom line is the goal posts have been moving the entire time. First it was flatten the curve, it's pretty flat, now it's we can't let anyone contact this virus. The stay home order is simply unsustainable, we need a plan to get out from under that order.
Well, duh.

If there ever was an issue where the goals change it is a pandemic. Thanks to the lockdown an overwhelming situation in some states health care systems was avoided, and the bit about trying to prevent people from getting the virus follows if some who are not ready really do follow with a dismissal of the stay at home orders.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/04...t-coronavirus/
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Democrats said they are tired of waiting for Abbott's promises of more testing to come to fruition. During a conference call after Abbott's news conference, U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro, D-San Antonio, told reporters that is is hard to “flatten the curve when our leaders have been so far behind it,” accusing Abbott of first relying on local leaders to address the coronavirus response before finally taking statewide action.

"We’re concerned about the life and the livelihood of Texans," Castro said. "Throughout the response, Abbott has said, 'More tests are coming,' but they still haven’t come."

Democrats were also quick to note that Abbott's task force does not include any local officials, whom Abbott had initially deferred to in enacting policies to contain the coronavirus. One of those officials, Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins, responded to Abbott's news conference with a statement urging local, state and federal officials to work together to restore the economy in a responsible way.

"Several of the things mentioned by the Governor today were already being discussed by our team in Dallas County such as loosening the restrictions on some surgeries and 'retail to go,'" Jenkins said. "Others, like opening movie theaters and restaurants are not businesses we contemplate being in the first group of businesses to be opened for in person experience."

In naming the leaders of the task force, Abbott turned to two men with deep experience in and around business and state government. Huffines, the chair, previously served as Central and South Texas chairman of PlainsCapital Bank in Austin. From 2003-10, he served on the University of Texas System Board of Regents, including two stints as chair.

Toomey, who will be the top full-time staffer for the group, is best known as a close adviser to former Gov. Rick Perry, for whom he was chief of staff. Toomey, a former state representative, also was chief of staff to ex-Gov. Bill Clements. Toomey is a partner at Texas Lobby Group, though Abbott spokesman John Wittman said Toomey has deregistered as a lobbyist to join the task force.

Abbott's news conference came as the number of coronavirus cases in Texas climbed to at least 17,371, including 428 deaths, according to the latest numbers from the Texas Department of State Health Services. Out of Texas' 254 counties, 192 are reporting cases.
  #153  
Old 04-28-2020, 10:46 AM
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This conservative wants to end the stay at home work order because it isn't sustainable. Now I am ok will all kinds of restrictions (wear face mask, stay 6' away, wash hands etc) but people have got to get back to work. I and my family all are lucky enough to have jobs that we can do from home, a lot of others do not, and a lot of other industries business models are failing because they also CANNOT.
I think that the belief that if governments end stay home orders, that the economy will come roaring back is mostly incorrect.

On the margin, there are definitely some businesses that will be able to open up meaningfully, but a lot of them won't, or won't for very long.

Airlines were never forced to close, but air travel is down like 95% year over year. Restaurant reservations cratered before restaurants were forced to close.

Shutdown orders change things a little at the margin, but the primary reason for economic slowdown is the virus.
  #154  
Old 04-28-2020, 11:08 AM
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I think that the belief that if governments end stay home orders, that the economy will come roaring back is mostly incorrect.

On the margin, there are definitely some businesses that will be able to open up meaningfully, but a lot of them won't, or won't for very long.

Airlines were never forced to close, but air travel is down like 95% year over year. Restaurant reservations cratered before restaurants were forced to close.

Shutdown orders change things a little at the margin, but the primary reason for economic slowdown is the virus.
Roaring back? Of course not. Start a slow recovery? Yes. The sooner you start the recovery the better for us economically, ALL OF US.

And I am not Trump nor am I running for election.
  #155  
Old 04-28-2020, 11:12 AM
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Well, duh.

If there ever was an issue where the goals change it is a pandemic. Thanks to the lockdown an overwhelming situation in some states health care systems was avoided, and the bit about trying to prevent people from getting the virus follows if some who are not ready really do follow with a dismissal of the stay at home orders.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/04...t-coronavirus/


Let me ask you a question

When I first delegate things to my supervisory staff and they don't get done or they don't get done how I want them done, my NEXT step is to do it myself or create a company wide policy that WILL get done.

So why would he, NOW, after he had to take steps because the "local" guys weren't cutting the mustard, add them to some council that he would listen to?
  #156  
Old 04-28-2020, 11:21 AM
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Roaring back? Of course not. Start a slow recovery? Yes. The sooner you start the recovery the better for us economically, ALL OF US.

And I am not Trump nor am I running for election.
Why would you expect a "slow recovery" when we will be doing nothing to curtail the spread of the virus? If we were ready to begin heavily testing and contact tracing, I'd agree with you, but it seems clear that if we open up without any of those precautions we will not see a "slow recovery" but rather a rapid boom in the number of sick people.
  #157  
Old 04-28-2020, 11:49 AM
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Why would you expect a "slow recovery" when we will be doing nothing to curtail the spread of the virus? If we were ready to begin heavily testing and contact tracing, I'd agree with you, but it seems clear that if we open up without any of those precautions we will not see a "slow recovery" but rather a rapid boom in the number of sick people.
Why would you assume that, the safety protocols are still in place. Social distancing, masks, limited congregations etc?
  #158  
Old 04-28-2020, 11:57 AM
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Why would you assume that, the safety protocols are still in place. Social distancing, masks, limited congregations etc?
And if you believe people will follow these protocols once Trump and their governors tell them to reopen, I have beachfront property in Nebraska to sell you.
  #159  
Old 04-28-2020, 12:05 PM
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Let me ask you a question

When I first delegate things to my supervisory staff and they don't get done or they don't get done how I want them done, my NEXT step is to do it myself or create a company wide policy that WILL get done.

So why would he, NOW, after he had to take steps because the "local" guys weren't cutting the mustard, add them to some council that he would listen to?
This really sounds like assuming that the current governor has no responsibility, just like the ones at higher levels than he. Your reply also makes it sound as if the "local" guys had the power to override what the Governor orders, he currently thinks that the the locals can't and AFAIK many do agree that that is the case.

Last edited by GIGObuster; 04-28-2020 at 12:06 PM.
  #160  
Old 04-28-2020, 12:12 PM
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And if you believe people will follow these protocols once Trump and their governors tell them to reopen, I have beachfront property in Nebraska to sell you.
And by the way even right here in California where the state is still locked down, idiots flooded the beaches last weekend. I fear numbers will skyrocket in the next couple weeks.
  #161  
Old 04-28-2020, 12:27 PM
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I think we can all (here) agree that getting out in public to wave a flag is batshit. But let that shit slide, those are the Darwin award winners.

The bottom line is the goal posts have been moving the entire time. First it was flatten the curve, it's pretty flat, now it's we can't let anyone contact this virus. The stay home order is simply unsustainable, we need a plan to get out from under that order.

Gov Abbott is green lighting people to go back to work on Friday (May 1st with all sorts of safety protocol. Masks, distancing, 25% capacity of restaurants etc ,but it is the right call.

Even with that done, I can almost guarantee that you see very little movement at first. Also the right call.
I appreciate the thoughtful response.

I would submit, though, that the most effective way to really start getting a jump on restarting the country is to make sure we have several things, the first being ways to seriously check the spread. This means more than just trusting people to police themselves. Wearing masks have to be mandatory, and authorities should have the ability to fine shops that don't enforce that rule. It also means setting up thermometer cameras in airports and other places of mass transit infrastructure.

Beyond that, though, the healthcare system needs two things it does not now really have: one is good, reliable testing on a massive scale. Without that, we're very likely going to be right back where we are now. Keep in mind that not all countries are requiring lock downs. One major reason *we* are is due to the fact that we lack the testing and therefore don't have the ability to immediately separate the infected from those who have yet to be infected. Most of the country, most of the world still does not yet have COVID-19, and yet nobody other than those who are infected have immunity. So what do you think the result is going to be once we pretend that we've flattened the curve??? It's pretty predictable , really.

The other thing we need - and we've needed for decades - is a health system that encourages people to visit their healthcare provider before they are in urgent, life-threatening situations. South Korea, Germany, and a few other countries have, to some degree, been good at getting people into treatment before they become acutely ill. Here, however, people are either uninsured or under-insured. This is also another reason why people aren't getting tested. It's not just the lack of good tests; it's the assumption that they will have to shell out a lot of money when money is hard to come by.

It's almost as though some people are actually siding with Texas' Lt. Governor and trying to convince us that life is hard, suck it up, take one for the team, and be willing to take the dirt nap for the 'job creators.' I just don't accept this. We're the richest country on earth, and the average person has a right to expect better outcomes for the average person.
  #162  
Old 04-28-2020, 12:35 PM
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And by the way even right here in California where the state is still locked down, idiots flooded the beaches last weekend. I fear numbers will skyrocket in the next couple weeks.
They almost certainly will, but worst of all, they're going to wear down the health care workers. There's not an infinite supply of doctors and nurses. Heart attacks and cancer aren't going to wait for COVID-19 to pass through.

Even worse than that, people are going to start losing confidence in government's ability to manage the crisis. I'm not suggesting that people trust government implicitly, but we do trust that we live in a developed country that can somehow find ways to respond to crises. Chipping away at that confidence undermines trust in ways we can't foresee, but I don't see anything good coming out of it.
  #163  
Old 04-28-2020, 12:41 PM
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From your cite …
"Democrats were also quick to note that Abbott's task force does not include any local officials, whom Abbott had initially deferred to in enacting policies to contain the coronavirus. One of those officials, Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins, responded to Abbott's news conference with a statement urging local, state and federal officials to work together to restore the economy in a responsible way.
"

If he deferred to them, why didn't they do what was necessary?
  #164  
Old 04-28-2020, 12:48 PM
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I think most of you are talking to someone else. I have in no way shape or form suggested that opening back up entailed NO safety protocols. As to guessing what people will do given a "you do this but follow these protocols" order I seriously wonder how you can:

1. Have so MUCH faith in government (as and by the people)
2. Have so LITTLE faith in the general public to be safe for not only themselves but the people around them.
That's the genius about the safety protocols, if I follow them, then as long as the people around me aren't hugging and kissing me, I should be ok!

If people aren't following them, then, like NOW, they can be fined.

Last edited by Kearsen1; 04-28-2020 at 12:48 PM.
  #165  
Old 04-28-2020, 01:22 PM
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While I support the measures taken here in Illinois -- lockdown recently extended through May 31 -- I wonder if leaders aren't missing an opportunity to act responsibly and cheerlead at the same time.

I have read about the need for two continuous weeks of declining cases in an area before restrictions can be lifted. Since case numbers (however inaccurate) are published almost daily in our paper, it seems like that's a readily available metric everyone can understand. A governor or mayor could say, Look, we need to stay locked down as tightly as possible to get these numbers in decline. I want to open up as badly as you do, so let's all follow these restrictions until we get these numbers down!

Then the "opening up" stages need to be explicit and very gradual, with every stage requiring another two weeks of declining cases.
__________________
I'm not expecting any surprises.

Last edited by Akaj; 04-28-2020 at 01:23 PM.
  #166  
Old 04-28-2020, 01:24 PM
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From your cite …
"Democrats were also quick to note that Abbott's task force does not include any local officials, whom Abbott had initially deferred to in enacting policies to contain the coronavirus. One of those officials, Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins, responded to Abbott's news conference with a statement urging local, state and federal officials to work together to restore the economy in a responsible way.
"

If he deferred to them, why didn't they do what was necessary?
He is actually ignoring what the mayors in the big cities are saying, so before going forward you need to be aware that what you think is "necessary" has been criticized in many ways.
  #167  
Old 04-28-2020, 01:28 PM
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He is actually ignoring what the mayors in the big cities are saying, so before going forward you need to be aware that what you think is "necessary" has been criticized in many ways.
Yes, he is. He didn't ignore them originally though and they had their shot. That is how I took the quoted piece. He deferred to them originally in containing this virus, when that failed, he took action.

Is should NOW be of no surprise to any of them that he isn't asking them for their opinions.

Last edited by Kearsen1; 04-28-2020 at 01:29 PM.
  #168  
Old 04-28-2020, 02:17 PM
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Yes, he is. He didn't ignore them originally though and they had their shot. That is how I took the quoted piece. He deferred to them originally in containing this virus, when that failed, he took action.

Is should NOW be of no surprise to any of them that he isn't asking them for their opinions.
Again, that is just pumping up the "I'm not responsible" mantra. And yes, you need a big cite for what you mention here.
  #169  
Old 04-29-2020, 12:28 AM
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And by the way even right here in California where the state is still locked down, idiots flooded the beaches last weekend. I fear numbers will skyrocket in the next couple weeks.
Its interesting you mention California. My wife talked to her friend from SF area and she said restrictions are way tighter out there than here in Kansas City. For example they arent allowing lawn service companies to operate. She said many in her area are getting frustrated with restrictions.
  #170  
Old 04-29-2020, 12:34 AM
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A governor or mayor could say, Look, we need to stay locked down as tightly as possible to get these numbers in decline. I want to open up as badly as you do, so let's all follow these restrictions until we get these numbers down!

Then the "opening up" stages need to be explicit and very gradual, with every stage requiring another two weeks of declining cases.
It just isnt going to happen. Way to many people are without income and their jobs are going away. Many more businesses are closing than we know about.

So back to the OP, reps want to end restrictions to allow the economy to recover. It doesnt mean they are opening things wide open.

Maybe the question should be why do democrats want to restrict ways for people to safely go back to work?
  #171  
Old 04-29-2020, 01:13 AM
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Its interesting you mention California. My wife talked to her friend from SF area and she said restrictions are way tighter out there than here in Kansas City. For example they arent allowing lawn service companies to operate. She said many in her area are getting frustrated with restrictions.
Theoretically they are not allowed, but my guy comes regularly - just one person, no danger of anything - and so do others. Haven't seen the police complaining.
We are frustrated, of course, but we are damn glad for the restrictions since we have flattened the curve enough to lend ventilators to states who need them more than we do. I'm in a Writers' Club with people of all sorts of religious and political views, and no one wants to be unsafe.
  #172  
Old 04-29-2020, 01:21 AM
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It just isnt going to happen. Way to many people are without income and their jobs are going away. Many more businesses are closing than we know about.

So back to the OP, reps want to end restrictions to allow the economy to recover. It doesnt mean they are opening things wide open.

Maybe the question should be why do democrats want to restrict ways for people to safely go back to work?
So, who decides what is safe? Scientifically ignorant Republicans such as Kemp: asymptomatic people spread the virus? Who knew? and Trump: inject bleach. Unproven remedies are great to try. We'll open by Easter.
How about Democrats and intelligent Republicans who listen to the health experts?

Doesn't really matter anyway, since lots of business owners are smarter than the governors, and are sure as hell not opening when it puts their workers and customers at risk. Remember, the restaurant business crashed before the restrictions went into effect.
  #173  
Old 04-29-2020, 02:23 AM
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She said many in her [SF] area are getting frustrated with restrictions.
I suspect they'll be rather more frustrated when they're intubated in ICU during the second wave. That would frustrate the hell out of me.
  #174  
Old 04-29-2020, 06:40 AM
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Its interesting you mention California. My wife talked to her friend from SF area and she said restrictions are way tighter out there than here in Kansas City. For example they arent allowing lawn service companies to operate. She said many in her area are getting frustrated with restrictions.
Quote few Californians want to open the economy back up. 11% in a recent poll.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mer...oll-finds/amp/
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Old 04-29-2020, 12:24 PM
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Again, that is just pumping up the "I'm not responsible" mantra. And yes, you need a big cite for what you mention here.
LOL, it was literally from the quote YOU provided, so I'm not the one pumping anything.
  #176  
Old 04-29-2020, 01:53 PM
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Interesting news on this:
https://www.businessinsider.com/trol...m9BSCOPmtvtJ5k

Trolls and bots are flooding social media with disinformation encouraging states to end quarantine..An analysis from Bot Sentinel, a bot tracking platform, found that bots and trolls have been stoking sentiments online that have fueled the protests, using hashtags like #ReopenAmericaNow and #StopTheMadness..."Inauthentic accounts are amplifying disinformation and inaccurate statistics and sharing false information as a reason to reopen the country," Bouzy says. "Many of these accounts are also spreading bizarre conspiracy theories about Democrats using COVID-19 as a way to take away American freedoms and prevent Americans from voting."

The kremlin strikes again.
  #177  
Old 04-29-2020, 02:26 PM
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LOL, it was literally from the quote YOU provided, so I'm not the one pumping anything.
Piffle, that only showed that he deferred to them, where is the cite that what they did then was bad? Remember that the issue is now to end the restrictions. Lets see your cite where it shows that the mayors are wrong and the governor is correct.
  #178  
Old 04-29-2020, 03:03 PM
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Its interesting you mention California. My wife talked to her friend from SF area and she said restrictions are way tighter out there than here in Kansas City. For example they arent allowing lawn service companies to operate. She said many in her area are getting frustrated with restrictions.
I'm very cautious about opening up, but there are definitely things that can be done on the margin. There are plenty of businesses that could resume operation in very low-risk ways.

Our gardener continued to work during the lockdown. He works alone, outside the house, and we can communicate at a distance or via cell phone. There's really extremely small risk there.

I'm less sanguine about barbershops and restaurants. Unless you literally have a private room where one family group meets, it's a fairly big risk. Have people seen this diagram of spread in a restaurant? Those people at other tables are way more than 6 feet away.
  #179  
Old 04-29-2020, 04:04 PM
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I'm less sanguine about barbershops and restaurants. Unless you literally have a private room where one family group meets, it's a fairly big risk. Have people seen this diagram of spread in a restaurant? Those people at other tables are way more than 6 feet away.
The economics of restaurants are such that any place enforcing social distancing is almost guaranteed to lose money, since they'd have to keep people out during busy times.
And much as I need a haircut, unless Edward Scissorhands is around I'm not getting that close to my barber.
  #180  
Old 04-29-2020, 04:06 PM
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Quote few Californians want to open the economy back up. 11% in a recent poll.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mer...oll-finds/amp/
Isn't that kind of the opposite of "quite a few", especially when 75% support shelter-in-place "as long as needed"? I mean, 75% support for anything is overwhelming. It means even vast numbers of California Republicans support it.
  #181  
Old 04-29-2020, 04:45 PM
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Here are the reasons:
* Many conservatives and Republican fundamentally view liberals and Democrats as evil, corrupt, social justice warrioring, communists who want to take from the successful to give to lazy and incompetent criminals and destroy America. Conveniently, any evidence to the contrary will be viewed as "fake news" or "spin", "groupthink" or some other justification for being disregarded. It isn't rational so don't try to rationalize it.
* Many conservatives have an inherent, paranoid, almost pathological aversion to being told to do something they don't want to do. They view this as an affront to their "rights".
* Many conservatives have an inherent aversion to having the government pay large numbers of people not to work.
* To many conservatives living in more sparsely populated or suburban areas, the risk of COVID-19 is more abstract than the reality of being unemployed and financially ruined.
* To wealthy Republican business owners, the risk of COVID-19 is more abstract and more easily mitigated than the reality of their profitability dropping. Particularly since they don't actually have to go to the office if they don't want to.
* Admitting that Trump (or by extension, Fox News and the Republican Party) is wrong about these various medical and scientific points means opening the door to them being wrong about many other things that conservatives hold dear.
* I believe a major factor in whether Republicans get elected in November will be how closely we are to "business as usual".

I would also add that there are just a shit ton of people of both political parties who are sick of being stuck at home

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  #182  
Old 04-29-2020, 04:58 PM
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Isn't that kind of the opposite of "quite a few", especially when 75% support shelter-in-place "as long as needed"? I mean, 75% support for anything is overwhelming. It means even vast numbers of California Republicans support it.
That was actually my point
  #183  
Old 04-29-2020, 06:05 PM
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That was actually my point
https://youtu.be/RURHj1ObSqk?t=44
  #184  
Old 05-02-2020, 09:46 AM
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Thousands protest across California over coronavirus restrictions (YouTube)

...a lot of Trump flags, stupid signs, one guy flashing a white power hand signal, and zero attempts at social distancing

They aren't protesting the lockdown, they're protesting the virus. They are the reason why everything needs to be shut down. Some people are too stupid to take the pandemic seriously. They are achieving the opposite desired effect. Their actions prove we need to keep the shutdown in place.
  #185  
Old 05-02-2020, 04:41 PM
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Thousands protest across California over coronavirus restrictions (YouTube)

...a lot of Trump flags, stupid signs, one guy flashing a white power hand signal, and zero attempts at social distancing

They aren't protesting the lockdown, they're protesting the virus. They are the reason why everything needs to be shut down. Some people are too stupid to take the pandemic seriously. They are achieving the opposite desired effect. Their actions prove we need to keep the shutdown in place.
Something similar happened at the state legislature here in Honolulu yesterday. About 100 people. Signs and shouts of the virus being fake news. I think three people were arrested. Should have been 100 people arrested. But no white power etc, not Republicans. Mostly the extreme hippie fringe one still finds in Hawaii.

But tensions are running high. Hawaii has seen only 619 cases and 16 deaths to date. People don't stop to consider that maybe the reason the state has gotten off so slightly is because of the restrictions.
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Last edited by Siam Sam; 05-02-2020 at 04:46 PM.
  #186  
Old 05-02-2020, 08:26 PM
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Something similar happened at the state legislature here in Honolulu yesterday. About 100 people. Signs and shouts of the virus being fake news. I think three people were arrested. Should have been 100 people arrested. But no white power etc, not Republicans. Mostly the extreme hippie fringe one still finds in Hawaii.

But tensions are running high. Hawaii has seen only 619 cases and 16 deaths to date. People don't stop to consider that maybe the reason the state has gotten off so slightly is because of the restrictions.
Now wait a damn minute! How did it get there? They even have to have a special big ass dish for Dish Network!
  #187  
Old 05-05-2020, 09:27 AM
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What are the consequences of reopening and dropping all restrictions? Worst case scenario about 1 in every 1000 Americans would die. Best case scenario about 1 in every 3,000 Americans would die.

What could we do to mitigate some of those losses? We could put more resources into identifying and protecting the vulnerable and most likely reduce those losses to possibly 1 in 10,000

Why is putting too much energy into slowing the spread of this virus a fools game? For many reasons. The quicker it passes the less damage it does. Easier to protect the vulnerable for 6 months as opposed to 3 years. The more time that goes by the more opportunity the virus has to sneak into places it shouldn't be.

Are children and the general public at great risk from this disease? NO! They are under normal risks that nature puts on us all the time.

Will the shutdowns actually save lives are just delay a loss of life. This is a hard one, because loss of life indirectly associated with this virus could go on for years.

Social distancing and common sense especially for the elder should sufficiently slow the virus as to not overload hospitals, trying to stop this virus is a fools game.
  #188  
Old 05-05-2020, 10:07 AM
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Well HoneyBadgerDC, it is a fools game because there was/is really no good plan or preparation from the foolish leader that we have now.

Again, as pointed many times with evidence, more people do die when health systems get overwhelmed. And by overwhelmed it is not just talking about people dying directly from corona, but people that get subpar care when most people in hospitals and beds and equipment are geared to deal with the excess of corona cases that surge when restrictions are lifted. Unfortunately there are a lot of adults in their 20s who do live with their parents, and there is very little on the way of setting up quarantine facilities and economic aid to the ones that will be affected. Meaning that most will cause a surge in cases in many locations.

So, the real foolish errand is to pretend that everyone will follow the voluntary distancing, use of masks and to demand mass testing and contact tracing and the quarantines that would be needed.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...omy-and-health
Quote:
It’s this sort of reasoning that appears to be leading President Trump to call for an early end to restrictions in the US, claiming that far more people would die of suicide from a “terrible economy” than from the virus.

But the premise is simply wrong. A recession – a short-term, temporary fall in GDP – need not, and indeed normally does not, reduce life expectancy. Indeed, counterintuitively, the weight of the evidence is that recessions actually lead to people living longer. Suicides do indeed go up, but other causes of death, such as road accidents and alcohol-related disease, fall.

So at the most basic level, this argument ignores what the evidence says. But perhaps more importantly, the idea that the way to minimise the economic damage is to remove the restrictions before they’ve done their job – definitively suppressing the spread of the virus – is a terrible one.

Does anyone believe that, whatever the government said, we could get back to “normal”, or something close to it, any time soon? If we were all allowed to return to work, many or most of us would, quite rationally, choose not to, for fear of catching the virus. And if, as the scientists predict, the result of loosening the restrictions was an acceleration in infections, then pretty soon many firms would simply stop functioning, as workers became sick, or had to stay at home to look after family members.
That was Jonathan Portes - professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London and a former senior civil servant.
  #189  
Old 05-05-2020, 10:18 AM
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Well HoneyBadgerDC, it is a fools game because there was/is really no good plan or preparation from the foolish leader that we have now.

Again, as pointed many times with evidence, more people do die when health systems get overwhelmed. And by overwhelmed it is not just talking about people dying directly from corona, but people that get subpar care when most people in hospitals and beds and equipment are geared to deal with the excess of corona cases that surge when restrictions are lifted. Unfortunately there are a lot of adults in their 20s who do live with their parents, and there is very little on the way of setting up quarantine facilities and economic aid to the ones that will be affected. Meaning that most will cause a surge in cases in many locations.

So, the real foolish errand is to pretend that everyone will follow the voluntary distancing, use of masks and to demand mass testing and contact tracing and the quarantines that would be needed.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...omy-and-health


That was Jonathan Portes - professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London and a former senior civil servant.
Why do you think it is rational for a normal relatively healthy person to have a fear of catching this virus?
  #190  
Old 05-05-2020, 10:32 AM
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Why do you think it is rational for a normal relatively healthy person to have a fear of catching this virus?
Because as Dr. Fauci told in a congressional hearing (before Trump forbade it now), that the coronavirus is 10 times deadlier than the seasonal flu. And again, healthy people that get infected do get back to their families and mingle with coworkers. Hence the point made:

The result of loosening the restrictions will be an acceleration in infections, then it is very likely that many firms would simply stop functioning, as workers became sick, or had to stay at home to look after family members.

Last edited by GIGObuster; 05-05-2020 at 10:37 AM.
  #191  
Old 05-05-2020, 10:32 AM
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What are the consequences of reopening and dropping all restrictions? Worst case scenario about 1 in every 1000 Americans would die. Best case scenario about 1 in every 3,000 Americans would die.
Where did you get these numbers? They don't match anything I've seen. We've seen overloaded hospital systems with a death rate close to 4% and then on the low side we have South Korea at 0.5%. Even if you assume that only 70% of the population catches the disease that means your best case is ~3 in every 1,000 and your worst case would be 3 in every 100.
  #192  
Old 05-05-2020, 10:43 AM
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Where did you get these numbers? They don't match anything I've seen. We've seen overloaded hospital systems with a death rate close to 4% and then on the low side we have South Korea at 0.5%. Even if you assume that only 70% of the population catches the disease that means your best case is ~3 in every 1,000 and your worst case would be 3 in every 100.
Testing has produced no meaningful numbers as of yet. We don't know how many of the tests were conducted on the general public as opposed to those already in hospitals.
We have no idea how many people are infected or have been infected. At this particular point in time the only meaningful number is death per millions and even that is being skewed because we don't know how much the shutdowns have affected that number. It appears that most western nations start slowing down when the virus has killed about 500 in 1,000,000 of the population. New York is currently approaching 1300 per million and we don't know how much of the community has been infected. I would put massive resources into antibody testing of the general public in New York and that would give us the best idea of what we are actually dealing with.
  #193  
Old 05-05-2020, 11:19 AM
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That's not true at all South Korea has been doing wide spread testing of its population. To date they have tested 650K which is over 1% of their population and at least gives a relative idea on infection rates to correlate to deaths. Of that 650k there have bee 10,800 positive results with 252 deaths or about a 2% death rate it has increased in the last month and was only 0.5% the last time I checked it.
  #194  
Old 05-05-2020, 11:40 AM
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That's not true at all South Korea has been doing wide spread testing of its population. To date they have tested 650K which is over 1% of their population and at least gives a relative idea on infection rates to correlate to deaths. Of that 650k there have bee 10,800 positive results with 252 deaths or about a 2% death rate it has increased in the last month and was only 0.5% the last time I checked it.
If you said they had been giving antibody tests I would agree with you but testing for the virus itself will yield little statistical information.
  #195  
Old 05-05-2020, 01:13 PM
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If you said they had been giving antibody tests I would agree with you but testing for the virus itself will yield little statistical information.
So you don't believe in polling or statistics? If I polled 1,500 random people would I be able to extrapolate that to the greater population within a margin of error?

South Korea is testing ~9,000 people per day most of that is contact testing. Here is their report from 5/4 in this case they tested 8,176 people with 8 positives. Sure its not a perfectly random sample since they are primarily focused on any one who could have contracted it from another sick person but it does allow them to catch their asymptomatic carriers. I see no reason to think they aren't testing a high percentage of all infected people in their country. Which would allow them to see the death rate with a pretty high accuracy.

At most you should be quibbling that their society with different demographics and health would have a different death rate than the US but I can't come up with a reason the US would be wildly better.
  #196  
Old 05-05-2020, 01:23 PM
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So you don't believe in polling or statistics? If I polled 1,500 random people would I be able to extrapolate that to the greater population within a margin of error?

South Korea is testing ~9,000 people per day most of that is contact testing. Here is their report from 5/4 in this case they tested 8,176 people with 8 positives. Sure its not a perfectly random sample since they are primarily focused on any one who could have contracted it from another sick person but it does allow them to catch their asymptomatic carriers. I see no reason to think they aren't testing a high percentage of all infected people in their country. Which would allow them to see the death rate with a pretty high accuracy.

At most you should be quibbling that their society with different demographics and health would have a different death rate than the US but I can't come up with a reason the US would be wildly better.


1500 in a population as big as the US? No, it would be noise, not data.

If you polled 150,000, from across the country with different demographics maybe. But the point was, they were testing people , precisely because they thought they had contact with a positive test. That isn't random.

Another reason to not believe the data inherently available in the right now. The CDC has roughly halved the deaths caused by Covid19 in the US since their initial number.

Representative? Sure with a margin of error (of 50%)
  #197  
Old 05-05-2020, 01:36 PM
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As mentioned in another thread, the bigger the uncertainty is, it actually gives the ones in favor of harder lockdowns more reasons to maintain the lockdowns.

Last edited by GIGObuster; 05-05-2020 at 01:40 PM.
  #198  
Old 05-05-2020, 02:03 PM
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As mentioned in another thread, the bigger the uncertainty is, it actually gives the ones in favor of harder lockdowns more reasons to maintain the lockdowns.
The only two things about this virus that seem to have workable facts at this point that I can see are the death per million ratios and knowing who the primary targets of this virus are. If the death per million was matched up to some extensive antibody testing it might give us a fairly accurate idea of what the potential danger for this disease really is. Looking at western europe and some of the states on the east coast it looks like it might range from about 500 to 1500 but we still don't know how many have been infected. Antibody tests would give us that pretty quickly.
  #199  
Old 05-05-2020, 02:15 PM
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.

Why is putting too much energy into slowing the spread of this virus a fools game? For many reasons. The quicker it passes the less damage it does. Easier to protect the vulnerable for 6 months as opposed to 3 years. The more time that goes by the more opportunity the virus has to sneak into places it shouldn't be.

Are children and the general public at great risk from this disease? NO! They are under normal risks that nature puts on us all the time.

..

Social distancing and common sense especially for the elder should sufficiently slow the virus as to not overload hospitals, trying to stop this virus is a fools game.
The general public very likely has some issue that makes them at risk- half of all adults have high blood pressure. 10% have diabetes, asthma, and copd about 10%, etc. of course there is overlap, but nearly HALF of adults in America are high risk. It wont need to be 3 years, we will have a vaccine by late fall or 2020.

Common sense? No such thing.Look at the pictures of MAGA hat wearers with Ak47s, confederate flags and stuff out demonstrating.

The point is to flatten the curve and not overload hospitals. That has worked. What we are doing is working. It's foolish not to continue a working policy.
  #200  
Old 05-05-2020, 02:22 PM
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The general public very likely has some issue that makes them at risk- half of all adults have high blood pressure. 10% have diabetes, asthma, and copd about 10%, etc. of course there is overlap, but nearly HALF of adults in America are high risk. It wont need to be 3 years, we will have a vaccine by late fall or 2020.

Common sense? No such thing.Look at the pictures of MAGA hat wearers with Ak47s, confederate flags and stuff out demonstrating.

The point is to flatten the curve and not overload hospitals. That has worked. What we are doing is working. It's foolish not to continue a working policy.
This is my big point of contention. The high risk people you mentioned are not at high risk, they are at an elevated risk. The vast majority of those getting into trouble with this virus are in very bad shape to start with. I know a 65 year old woman with severe copd on O2 24-7 who is living in a rest home and has contracted the disease. She is currently recovering and could still go downhill but so far she seems to have gotten past it without going on a ventilator. 8 others in her facility have passed away and they were all bed ridden. We need more accurate information about risk factors so we can decide for ourselves.
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