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Old 04-29-2020, 06:54 AM
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How will people react if Covid-19 flares up when the lockdown ends?


Here in Texas we are currently in the process of re-opening the economy/ getting rid of various Covid-19 restrictions. The same is happening in many other places as well. Assuming that Covid-19 flares up and that we have major outbreaks in a few weeks to a month, how will people react? Will there be any appetite for restarting the lockdown, or do you all think the let it burn through the population crowd will end up having things their way?
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Old 04-29-2020, 07:17 AM
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I don't think we know whether or not you can get it twice. That would be a big problem. It would be a never ending cycle.

Is suspect some will get immunity/be immune, but what if it turns out like the common cold, you get it once or twice a year and 1% die from it. It would absolutely devastate the community that is already in compromised health.

I would guess it will be a mixed bag. Many are fine with working from home. Many obviously can't. I wonder if there will be backlash/stigma against those that can work from home?
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Old 04-29-2020, 07:31 AM
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Given the "let it burn through the population/the economy is more important than other people's lives" crowd seem to be driving the reopening, sad to say, I think there will be a worse spread of the disease than before the lockdown.
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Old 04-29-2020, 07:40 AM
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It will be interesting if we start getting flare-ups in rural communities. I think a lot of the resistance comes from people in fairly rural places that haven't really been hit. In their mind, COVID is something that happens in the cities, it's irrelevant to them, but they are being asked to sacrifice a ton for it. And you can't blame them: we should have shut down a lot more when Italy shut down, but we thought COVID was something that happened in Asia and Europe, why should we destroy our economy? It's true that rural areas are much less densely populated, so outbreaks presumably won't ever reach NYC levels, but they also often have really limited medical capacity. So I feel like rural America may be the next crisis.

I'm hopeful rural communities will maintain enough social distancing to avoid this: it seems like rural life would make it more possible. But people have to take this seriously for that to happen.
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Old 04-29-2020, 07:46 AM
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I don't think we know whether or not you can get it twice. That would be a big problem. It would be a never ending cycle.

Is suspect some will get immunity/be immune, but what if it turns out like the common cold, you get it once or twice a year and 1% die from it. It would absolutely devastate the community that is already in compromised health.

I would guess it will be a mixed bag. Many are fine with working from home. Many obviously can't. I wonder if there will be backlash/stigma against those that can work from home?
Even assuming that you can only get it once, we've still had a very small number of the total population infected. We've just passed one million cases, so there are still over 300 million Americans who haven't had it. IMHO the reason the numbers are so low is because the various restrictions have worked. Unfortunately those in favor of lifting the restrictions seem to have come to a different conclusion. It seems to me they've decided that rather than having had successful restrictions, they concluded that what really happened is that Covid-19 isn't all that bad.

That's why I'm wondering if there will be any sort of backlash against that crowd if things really do start to get out of control in the next month. Will the restrictions return, or will we collectively just throw up our hands and give up, letting the coronavirus do it's thing?
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Old 04-29-2020, 07:54 AM
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As was pointed out the other day by Pritzker in his new's conference, quarantine, or the lifting of quarantine, is NOT Marshall Law. People can make personal choices, Just because a state lifts quarantine restrictions doesn't mean that people are mandated to march forth to their impending doom. We have the right of personal choice, and we should be responsible for the choices we make for ourselves and not play the blame game. Eventually, one way or the other, we are going to have to live with this thing just like we have learned to live with the other rock stars of the pathogen world.
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Old 04-29-2020, 08:08 AM
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I don't think we know whether or not you can get it twice. That would be a big problem. It would be a never ending cycle.

Is suspect some will get immunity/be immune, but what if it turns out like the common cold, you get it once or twice a year and 1% die from it. It would absolutely devastate the community that is already in compromised health.
"The common cold" is not a virus. It is just a general bunch of symptoms we call "a cold." A hundred, maybe hundreds, of viruses, from different families of viruses, cause colds - in fact, this coronavirus has probably caused a few people to have "colds." The reason no one is immune from the cold is simply that it's unlikely anyone has caught every single virus that causes it.

SARS-CoV-2 is one virus. If humans cannot develop immunity to it, it's literally the most amazing discovery since they figured out what viruses are. It would be like finding out gravity doesn't apply in houses with stucco walls, that's how weird it would be. It would also pretty much mean we're all dead.
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Old 04-29-2020, 08:13 AM
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Oh, and to answer the OP, there are two possibilities here when Plague 2.0 comes, and it very likely will.

1. People won't react much at all. Humans have an amazingly capability to accept risk they're accustomed to.

2. They'll panic.

Whether it's 1 or 2 just depends entirely on how bad it gets. If Round 2 is about the same as Round 1 people will be accepting of it to an extent that will shock you. If it's is WAY worse than Round 1, and that is a really strong possibility, you could have mass panic that made Round 1 look like a minor warm up. I'm talking hoarding that's ten times worse, and people genuinely losing their trust in the apparatus of state. Genuine civil unrest. Economic collapse; food shortages.
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Old 04-29-2020, 08:33 AM
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If COVID-19 flares up in a place without stacks of bodies being shown on the six o'clock news, people will just shrug their shoulders. Doesn't matter if a lot of the people who get sick are hospitalized and acquire permanent disabilities. People will initially be shocked but become desensitized as long as most people recover OK.

But if flare-ups result in mass graves and the collapse of their local medical systems, then it will be harder for people to justify a "business as usual" approach.

I hate to say the following but I'm gonna say it anyway. I think it will take the latter scenario happening in rural, predominately white areas to convince a certain vocal minority that we really are in a messed-up situation. The same people who confidently declared that COVID-19 was no worse than the flu have now changed their script to "This is an urban (read black people) thing." Seriously, twice I have had to correct the misconception that black people are only dying from this. People are too stupid to understand that "disproportionate" is not the same thing as "predominate". Or maybe it's a coping mechanism. If people feel like a problem is a "them" thing rather than an "us" thing, they can sleep easier at night.
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Old 04-29-2020, 08:33 AM
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SARS-CoV-2 is one virus. If humans cannot develop immunity to it, it's literally the most amazing discovery since they figured out what viruses are. It would be like finding out gravity doesn't apply in houses with stucco walls, that's how weird it would be. It would also pretty much mean we're all dead.
Well buckle up, because we may be in for one amazing discovery.

What if immunity to COVID-19 doesn't last?

Quote:
What the Columbia researchers now describe in a preliminary report is cause for concern. They found that people frequently got reinfected with the same coronavirus, even in the same year, and sometimes more than once. Over a year and a half, a dozen of the volunteers tested positive two or three times for the same virus, in one case with just four weeks between positive results.

Thatís a stark difference from the pattern with infections like measles or chicken pox, where people who recover can expect to be immune for life.

For the coronaviruses ďimmunity seems to wane quickly,Ē says Jeffrey Shaman, who carried out the research with Marta Galanti, a postdoctoral researcher.
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Old 04-29-2020, 08:37 AM
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Even assuming that you can only get it once, we've still had a very small number of the total population infected. We've just passed one million cases, so there are still over 300 million Americans who haven't had it. IMHO the reason the numbers are so low is because the various restrictions have worked.
...or because hardly any of those 300 million have been tested for the virus. Itís ridiculous that the first priority of the trillions being spent to ameliorate the effects of this virus on the economy isnít to eliminate the economyís worst enemy; uncertainty. Is it really beyond the capacity of American industry to turn out enough test kits to test every person in the country?
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Old 04-29-2020, 08:48 AM
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quarantine, or the lifting of quarantine, is NOT Marshall Law.
Nitpick: martial law, or direct military control of the government.

When I see "Marshall Law", I can't help but picture General George C. Marshall in a cowboy hat wearing a star, with Chester at his side.
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Old 04-29-2020, 09:09 AM
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Eventually, one way or the other, we are going to have to live with this thing just like we have learned to live with the other rock stars of the pathogen world.
I think this is the answer to the OP, although not in the "plucky Americans" way that I think Jasmine meant it here.

Overall America has taken drastic measures to turn what could have been an unprecedented catastrophe into a "mere" annual flu death toll. But unlike other countries that actually have their shit together, like Taiwan, South Korea, and New Zealand, the US is in no position to do the sort of testing and contact tracing required to keep this thing from running its course. And so even if we've flattened the curve, even the new estimates of an IFR that we're getting based on anti-body tests point to 1 to 2 million dead Americans. It might take a year to hit that number rather than the couple of months we were looking at back in February, but it will happen eventually.

Personally, that seems unfathomable, to just let millions of Americans die in order to get back to business as [modified] usual, but I think the groundwork is being laid by the "open up America" crowd for just that to happen. We'll rationalize away the death toll as being a factor of age, or co-morbidity -- it's just old people who were going to die soon anyway -- or by claiming that the cure is worse than the disease. Rather than beef up unemployment or figure some other way to keep people afloat while we beef up testing, we're just going to accept that 1 or 2 million people will die over the next 12 months and it was juts always inevitable. Brave Americans sacrificing themselves for our way of life.

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Old 04-29-2020, 09:13 AM
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And then of course there is Marshal Law:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshal_Law_(comics)

Where is he when we need him?
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Old 04-29-2020, 09:16 AM
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Nitpick: martial law, or direct military control of the government.

When I see "Marshall Law", I can't help but picture General George C. Marshall in a cowboy hat wearing a star, with Chester at his side.
I came to pick the same nit.

I always have to look and make sure it doesn't say marital law, which is a whole 'nother thing.

And then, of course, there's maritime law...

And the Marshall Plan, which the world will never again see from the USA. But I digress...

Leaving now.

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Old 04-29-2020, 09:19 AM
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... Rather than beef up unemployment or figure some other way to keep people afloat while we beef up testing, we're just going to accept that 1 or 2 million people will die over the next 12 months and it was juts always inevitable. Brave Americans sacrificing themselves for our way of life.
Yeah, rather than just give people money to live on, FFS!
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Old 04-29-2020, 09:22 AM
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One of the issues with reopening is by the time you know you went too far it is too late already.

The answer in NY seems to be along the lines as long as the hospitals are not projected to be overloaded and Ro stays below or around 1 they want to have a staged gradual reopening. It's a reopening then see what happens, and try to balance the need to reopen vs the virus' rate of spread (Ro value) with reopening. With a staged opening it's going to be easier to delay stages not yet reopened then to go back on closing reopened stages.
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Old 04-29-2020, 10:29 AM
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I came to pick the same nit.

I always have to look and make sure it doesn't say marital law, which is a whole 'nother thing.

And then, of course, there's maritime law...

And the Marshall Plan, which the world will never again see from the USA. But I digress...

Leaving now.
When I read that my first thought was that Marshall law might be part of a new Marshall plan to rebuild America. I didn’t make the martial=Marshall connection right away.

ETA -Thelma Lou beat me to it, but the font was really really small so I missed it.

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Old 04-29-2020, 10:59 AM
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SARS-CoV-2 is one virus. If humans cannot develop immunity to it, it's literally the most amazing discovery since they figured out what viruses are. It would be like finding out gravity doesn't apply in houses with stucco walls, that's how weird it would be. It would also pretty much mean we're all dead.
The issue is not whether or not we will develop immunity, but rather what the process of developing immunity will look like. As you mentioned in your second post, it probably means a few million dead, and maybe tens of millions with permanent damage of some sort or another.
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Old 04-29-2020, 01:29 PM
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Hell, we could be halfway there already. The world is reporting over 200,000 deaths but for all we know that's an understatement.
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Old 04-29-2020, 01:48 PM
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Nitpick: martial law, or direct military control of the government.

When I see "Marshall Law", I can't help but picture General George C. Marshall in a cowboy hat wearing a star, with Chester at his side.
When Dillon with a problem like this, you just gotta take it to the Matt.
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Old 04-29-2020, 02:11 PM
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Yeah, rather than just give people money to live on, FFS!
Keep this up long enough, and there won't be anything for your money to buy.

The government can keep borrowing or printing money and handing it out as much as it wants, but at some point the real economy will assert itself - that being actual goods and services being created by actual people. You can't just buy your way out of this. At some point, stuff has to be made. And that point may be closer than you think.

You want to see real panic? Keep everything locked down until supply chains begin to fail, and people go to the grocery store and find empty shelves.

The average city is three days away from food riots at the best of times. We rely on the steady flow of goods to keep everyone supplied. Right now, things are working okay, but eventually it will break down. You can't just operate an economy on a quarter of the usual labor and expect everything to just keep on coming.

This is not a choice between lives and money. It's a balancing act, and if we get it wrong lives will be lost either way.
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Old 04-29-2020, 02:21 PM
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Oh, and to answer the OP, there are two possibilities here when Plague 2.0 comes, and it very likely will.

1. People won't react much at all. Humans have an amazingly capability to accept risk they're accustomed to.

2. They'll panic.

Whether it's 1 or 2 just depends entirely on how bad it gets. If Round 2 is about the same as Round 1 people will be accepting of it to an extent that will shock you. If it's is WAY worse than Round 1, and that is a really strong possibility, you could have mass panic that made Round 1 look like a minor warm up. I'm talking hoarding that's ten times worse, and people genuinely losing their trust in the apparatus of state. Genuine civil unrest. Economic collapse; food shortages.
I think the same thing will happen if the lockdown continues for much longer without a clear exit plan. If there is no progress on a vaccine, and herd immunity isn't being built up, then we have locked everyone down into a holding pattern with no end. That simply can't work. If we lock down so tightly that the infections basically stop growing, and only 1% of the population has been infected, then we've accomplished almost nothing except the destruction of trillions of dollars of wealth. If the lockdown goes away, we'll be right back to the situation when we started it.

We need to loosen up the lockdown precisely in the rural and otherwise less dense areas where it's less likely to run out of control as it spreads. That will buy us time to modulate the lockdowns in order to begin allowing the population to be infected and develop herd immunity without overwhelming the health care system.

At the very least, we need to understand what we are really trying to achieve with the extreme lockdown strategy. If it's to buld herd immunity, it's failing. If it's to buy time for the health system to catch up with PPE gear and ventilators, we're already there. If it's 'we are locking down until we have a vaccine', then that will never work, because a vaccine, if we find one at all, is at least a year away and there is no way we can lockdown for a year.

I find the current strategies to be incoherent. I think a lot of it is driven by the extreme risk aversion of the political class and the experts they are consulting. No one wants to make a decision that kills people, so they are erring on the side of caution. But in this case, caution can kill just as readily.
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Old 04-29-2020, 02:35 PM
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I find the current strategies to be incoherent.
You're right that the current strategies are incoherent, but that's largely because the federal response has been so non-existent.

I'm getting real tired of this "you can't stay locked down forever" strawman. No shit, nobody is saying we stay locked down forever. If we have a competent national strategy the lockdowns would be like 3, 4 months. The game plan seems relatively simple in theory -- lots of testing, contact tracing, social distancing measures and a strong public health presence.

So when Fauci says "We should stay locked down until there are 0 new cases," that's not an argument to stay locked down forever, or even for years. That's not a pipe dream, that's what countries with competent responses are doing in 3 or 4 months.

However we keep shooting ourselves in the foot. Over and over again. We were slow to react, slow to develop tests, slow to use federal leverage for production. And now in a lot of places we're too quick to lockdown.

It bothers me that people then can use our own failures, the ones that have all but guaranteed a long and miserable fight with this virus, as rationale for opening up because the fight looks so long and miserable.
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Old 04-29-2020, 02:43 PM
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Keep this up long enough, and there won't be anything for your money to buy.

The government can keep borrowing or printing money and handing it out as much as it wants, but at some point the real economy will assert itself - that being actual goods and services being created by actual people. You can't just buy your way out of this. At some point, stuff has to be made. And that point may be closer than you think.

You want to see real panic? Keep everything locked down until supply chains begin to fail, and people go to the grocery store and find empty shelves.

The average city is three days away from food riots at the best of times. We rely on the steady flow of goods to keep everyone supplied. Right now, things are working okay, but eventually it will break down. You can't just operate an economy on a quarter of the usual labor and expect everything to just keep on coming.

This is not a choice between lives and money. It's a balancing act, and if we get it wrong lives will be lost either way.
This is true if you believe everyone is really locked down in their homes, but they aren't. There's nothing critical I'm aware of where a supply shock is a realistic risk. We're still producing plenty of toilet paper and isopropyl alcohol. Meat may have gotten close because of outbreaks in slaughterhouses, but for now Trump has ordered those open again. And it's not even clear to me that meat shortages - not outages - constitutes a real disaster anyway.

Maybe there's something hidden, like we're not cutting down trees anymore so eventually toilet paper manufacturing will run out of raw materials, but I'm not aware of anything like that.

All the current evidence seems to be that we're running our economy on something like 70-75% of normal labor (not 25% as you suggested), and it's producing enough for everyone's basic needs. We just need to make sure there isn't a distribution problem - ie, everyone needs to have the money to buy for their needs.
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Old 04-29-2020, 02:44 PM
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It seems to come down to a question of how much of the population is expendable.
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Old 04-29-2020, 03:05 PM
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It seems to come down to a question of how much of the population is expendable.
Well, the po' folks, essentially.
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Old 04-29-2020, 03:06 PM
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SARS-CoV-2 is one virus. If humans cannot develop immunity to it, it's literally the most amazing discovery since they figured out what viruses are. It would be like finding out gravity doesn't apply in houses with stucco walls, that's how weird it would be. It would also pretty much mean we're all dead.
WHO appears to disagree with you.

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There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.
There's not a lot of evidence that they aren't, either -- there are cases of apparent re-infection, but we don't know yet whether this is a resurgence of the original illness or a new bout, or even whether they're cases of errors in the test. But right now this is on the unfortunately quite long list of "things we don't know yet."
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Old 04-29-2020, 03:20 PM
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How will people react if Covid-19 flares up when the lockdown ends?
Unsurprised. This is what we're being told will happen.
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Old 04-29-2020, 04:43 PM
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For most of the country it really hasn't hit yet. Texas, since it is mentioned in the OP, has been averaging under 1 new death/d. The idea that it will never get significantly higher than that seems unbelievable to me.

Even Texas though is not just ending the lockdown; as the OP states it is a process, with a plan to advance further if two weeks of "no flare" occurs. Agreed that two weeks of no flare will likely end up with them having moved on before they recognize the flare the previous step resulted in, when it does.

I have a hard time imagining that with plans to advance at two week intervals, with less than the best metrics to monitor, and only requiring "no flare", they won't have some flare, and hope that the flare won't burn too hot.

What happens then likely depends on how bad the flare is. Certainly they hold off on advancing any further until it cools back down. Will they immediately back step one or more level until it calms down? Makes the most sense but not sure they'd have the political will to do that until it would be past the point that the step back had any more chance at tamping the flare down. Pulling back is harder to sell than advancing slowly.

But here's a related question - how will it play to many other governors if (surprisingly and unexpectedly) their approach results in hospitalization/ICU/death rates still lower per capita than many other states are running?
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Old 04-29-2020, 05:28 PM
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>> Thread: How will people react if Covid-19 flares up when the lockdown ends?

As restrictions lift, those who feel they can, or must, will emerge and gather while the cautious stay holed up. When infections spike a very few weeks after partial or full openings, the cautious will feel vindicated; the rest will get sick, more or less. The economy will crater further. Supply lines will dwindle We'll see REAL panic buying.

We're still in act one, folks. Is anyone predicting act three yet?
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Old 04-29-2020, 05:46 PM
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>> Thread: How will people react if Covid-19 flares up when the lockdown ends?

As restrictions lift, those who feel they can, or must, will emerge and gather while the cautious stay holed up. When infections spike a very few weeks after partial or full openings, the cautious will feel vindicated; the rest will get sick, more or less. The economy will crater further. Supply lines will dwindle We'll see REAL panic buying.

We're still in act one, folks. Is anyone predicting act three yet?
since most of the people dying are the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions what makes you think the supply lines will collapse? The people dying are not the people working the supply line.
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Old 04-29-2020, 05:46 PM
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My first thought when reading the thread title was "IF???"

Act 2 is going to be really bad on the west coast because its going to hit when fire season is getting started. Fire fighting does allow for PPE and social distancing, but evacuations due to wild fires...yeah, not so much.

Tropical storms are going to be moving in soon as well.

By the time Act 3 hits in late fall, we will all be looking at Act 1 with fond nostalgia and calling them the good ol' days.
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Old 04-29-2020, 05:56 PM
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WHO is not saying here that you can't be immune to SARS-CoV-2.
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Old 04-29-2020, 06:55 PM
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I just read the WHO link, yeah, it doesn't say you can't be immune. It says we are still studying this NEW virus, so have no firm answers.

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Old 04-29-2020, 07:10 PM
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Depends on the vengeance with which the disease returns, but a Psychobilly Freakout is possible. Lotta people are going to break.

Last edited by Squink; 04-29-2020 at 07:10 PM.
  #37  
Old 04-29-2020, 07:38 PM
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As was pointed out the other day by Pritzker in his new's conference, quarantine, or the lifting of quarantine, is NOT Marshall Law. People can make personal choices, Just because a state lifts quarantine restrictions doesn't mean that people are mandated to march forth to their impending doom. We have the right of personal choice
That's all very well, but states reopening are starting to tell residents that they must return to work or lose unemployment benefits.

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As businesses across the nation slowly begin to reopen, many laid-off workers face a difficult decision: Do they feel it's safe enough to return to their jobs?
Many people may not have much of a choice. Several states, including Iowa and Texas, are warning residents who are called back that they may be cut off from unemployment benefits -- including the $600 bump authorized by Congress in March -- if they refuse to return.
Meanwhile, Moscow Mitch wants to indemnify companies against liability for getting people sick, which means they'll have no incentive to provide adequate safety equipment or follow distancing rules that protect people against the virus.

So, return to work and get infected and perhaps die, or lose the stimulus payments that were voted for workers a very short time ago.
  #38  
Old 04-29-2020, 07:51 PM
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My first thought when reading the thread title was "IF???"

Act 2 is going to be really bad on the west coast because its going to hit when fire season is getting started. Fire fighting does allow for PPE and social distancing, but evacuations due to wild fires...yeah, not so much.

Tropical storms are going to be moving in soon as well.

By the time Act 3 hits in late fall, we will all be looking at Act 1 with fond nostalgia and calling them the good ol' days.
Yeah, it's not like natural disasters are going to wait under after the pandemic.
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Old 04-29-2020, 10:42 PM
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since most of the people dying are the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions what makes you think the supply lines will collapse? The people dying are not the people working the supply line.
You don't have to die to be too sick to work.

The meatpacking plants were shutting down because employees were getting sick, not necessarily dying (although some have). This CDC report on hospitalizations in March has a quarter of those hospitalized under the age of 50. The elderly tend to be more severely affected, and a greater percentage of the elderly end up hospitalized, in ICU, on ventilators, etc., but that doesn't mean younger workers are unscathed.
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Old 04-29-2020, 11:40 PM
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Depends on the vengeance with which the disease returns, but a Psychobilly Freakout is possible. Lotta people are going to break.
I'm pretty mentally even all the time and have never had a serious psychological struggle of any kind, and shit, I'm despairing of this. I have never been more depressed - and I have a job I can do from home, so I'm not yet worried about paying the bills. There are MILLIONS of people just in Canada who'll crack before I do.

We're running a giant psychological imprisonment experiment and no one has really thought of how to help people through this.
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Old 04-30-2020, 01:07 AM
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The Technology Review article about possible short-lived immunity from coronavirus was interesting ... and frightening. Especially since high human populations and high mobility may make novel coronaviruses an ongoing problem.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Originally Posted by Elmer J. Fudd View Post
... Itís ridiculous that the first priority of the trillions being spent to ameliorate the effects of this virus on the economy isnít to eliminate the economyís worst enemy; uncertainty. Is it really beyond the capacity of American industry to turn out enough test kits to test every person in the country?
My wife sometimes spends a few minutes studying which brand of toothpaste to buy. It's a shame that a little more effort wasn't devoted to planning best benefit from the Trillions. IMHO, high priority should have been given to tests, medical needs, and delivery of food. I see on the news gargantuan multi-hours queues of struggling Americans waiting for food. Shame on America.

When Pearl Harbor was bombed, did FDR drop billions of dollars from helicopters and say "the American people will know what to do"? When JFK decided to go to the Moon did he just give money to his business cronies and say "Go for it, fellas"? Yet when the Covid-19 crisis hit, post-rational America was found wanting.

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I always have to look and make sure it doesn't say marital law, which is a whole 'nother thing. ...
Yes, the famous poem about marital law was quoted in the recent thread about short-selling:
He who pricks what isn't his'n
Must chop his off, nor go to heav'n.

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Leaving now.
No! I thought you'd be here all week.
  #42  
Old 04-30-2020, 03:29 AM
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The elderly tend to be more severely affected, and a greater percentage of the elderly end up hospitalized, in ICU, on ventilators, etc., but that doesn't mean younger workers are unscathed.
Plenty of people under 50 have conditions like diabetes, high blood pressure, and asthma that mean they are at far greater likelihood of getting really, really sick if infected. That doesn't mean that under normal circumstances, they are too sick to work.
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Old 04-30-2020, 03:47 AM
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Plenty of people under 50 have conditions like diabetes, high blood pressure, and asthma that mean they are at far greater likelihood of getting really, really sick if infected. That doesn't mean that under normal circumstances, they are too sick to work.
It seems to be more associated with serious underling conditions than it does age. I think as we get older we tend to have more conditions. To me it is starting to look like the best indicator of current infection rates might be how many deaths per million each state has reached. Hopefully most states won't be going over the 1,000 per million number but it does appear that might be pretty close. If that is the case each 100 per million might represent about 10% infections.
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Old 04-30-2020, 08:42 AM
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You don't have to die to be too sick to work.

The meatpacking plants were shutting down because employees were getting sick, not necessarily dying (although some have). This CDC report on hospitalizations in March has a quarter of those hospitalized under the age of 50. The elderly tend to be more severely affected, and a greater percentage of the elderly end up hospitalized, in ICU, on ventilators, etc., but that doesn't mean younger workers are unscathed.
If you're sick you stay home just like any other illness.
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Old 04-30-2020, 09:41 AM
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WHO appears to disagree with you.



There's not a lot of evidence that they aren't, either -- there are cases of apparent re-infection, but we don't know yet whether this is a resurgence of the original illness or a new bout, or even whether they're cases of errors in the test. But right now this is on the unfortunately quite long list of "things we don't know yet."
Right. Scientists understand that "there is no evidence of immunity" is a way of saying we don't know, not the same as "the evidence shows a lack of immunity" which would be the thing to fear.

I've said it before: It's way too early to draw many conclusions. Studies disagree all the time, and until enough data are collected you can ignore the headlines about treatments working or not, immunity developing or not, animal transmission being a thing or not, etc.

We will get to an understanding of these things (which are rarely binary) but we don't know yet.
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Old 04-30-2020, 10:10 AM
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I think it depends on what a "flare up" is. If the hospitals are overwhelmed, then I think there will be a bad reaction.

I think if more people get sick and more people die, I don't. Not collectively. Anybody that knows anything knows that we're going to have more cases and more deaths if lockdowns are lifted. That's just the way it works. I also think people are starting to get restless and a little numb to these charts.

Last edited by Ashtura; 04-30-2020 at 10:12 AM.
  #47  
Old 04-30-2020, 10:14 AM
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It's all going to depend on whether certain subgroups of humans are disparately effected or not.

monstro is probably the most correct.
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Old 04-30-2020, 10:16 AM
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If you're sick you stay home just like any other illness.
You've never been poor, have you? A lot of people do not have the luxury of staying home when sick and finding their job waiting for them when they recover. There is a lot of pressure, much of it legal, that pushes mildly ill people to come in to work.

And since asymptomatic people who don't know they're carriers will not be staying home, and since this seems especially contagious in indoor environments, you'll have a lot of opportunities to see this in action over the next few months.
  #49  
Old 04-30-2020, 10:27 AM
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You've never been poor, have you? A lot of people do not have the luxury of staying home when sick and finding their job waiting for them when they recover. There is a lot of pressure, much of it legal, that pushes mildly ill people to come in to work.

And since asymptomatic people who don't know they're carriers will not be staying home, and since this seems especially contagious in indoor environments, you'll have a lot of opportunities to see this in action over the next few months.
Hell, when I was working service jobs, I can remember being told that if I didn't come in for my shift, don't bother coming in ever again. And that was in a job handling prepared food.
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Old 04-30-2020, 10:45 AM
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As was pointed out the other day by Pritzker in his new's conference, quarantine, or the lifting of quarantine, is NOT Marshall Law. People can make personal choices, Just because a state lifts quarantine restrictions doesn't mean that people are mandated to march forth to their impending doom. We have the right of personal choice, and we should be responsible for the choices we make for ourselves and not play the blame game. .
This is an important point. Even if they open the economy, no one can MAKE people go to bars, restaurants, movie theaters, gyms, etc. So if cases continue to flare up, people are going to freak out and not go to those businesses.



Quote:
Originally Posted by RickJay
SARS-CoV-2 is one virus. If humans cannot develop immunity to it, it's literally the most amazing discovery since they figured out what viruses are.
Sort of like HIV?
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