Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 05-04-2020, 02:21 AM
russian heel is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 2,107

Assuming America survives this: Name permanent changes to American life


I am an optimist. But make no mistake, our country will emerge from this a lot different from when it entered this Shit Show:

1. Lack of need for live fans at sporting events. I think the advent of NASCAR returning with no fans later this month and maybe MLB playing a limited schedule with no fans later this summer, if successful, will transform professional sports from a fan to TV experience once and for all. This does not mean fans will not be allowed into games ever again, but will make fan attendance all but a non-issue with calculating a teams revenue, as a matter of fact, will skyrocket ticket prices and lead to smaller stadiums as rebuilt.

2. Shopping malls: FINISHED.

3. Corporate "in-person" meetings all but eliminated (creepily shown on many TV shows and movies pre-Virus). There is no reason to have dozens or hundreds of employees to spend hours of risky and expensive travel to attend a face to face meeting that can be handled for all but free online.

4. Elimination of the Republican and Democrat Conventions. Lets be honest, these have become a joke: we already know who the Nominees are going to be, no one cares about 4 nights of boring speeches, there is finally proof that online, we can pick the Presidential candidates.

America will survive----but what else will we deal with once COVID-19 flies away?????
  #2  
Old 05-04-2020, 05:08 AM
Ulfreida is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: pangolandia
Posts: 4,216
I am not sure shaking hands is going to make a comeback.
  #3  
Old 05-04-2020, 05:44 AM
Lord Feldon's Avatar
Lord Feldon is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Ohio, USA
Posts: 6,872
Not much. It might accelerate some trends that were already occurring, like the death of many exurban and rural shopping malls (which isn't the same as all malls being "FINISHED") but there won't be any huge changes to the way we live our lives. Meetings will bounce back to a level that's much higher than "all but eliminated," people will shake hands, political conventions will remain, etc.

In ten or twenty years, there will be some prestigious must-watch documentary about these months and we'll be surprised at how quickly we forgot (and how unprepared we still are for the next one).

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 05-04-2020 at 05:46 AM.
  #4  
Old 05-04-2020, 05:50 AM
Bijou Drains is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 12,090
There will be malls , just less of them. Locally we are losing one mall and another is in bad shape. We have 2 that are doing OK. For sporting events the NHL does not get much TV money so they need fans the most. NFL gets a ton of TV money so they need fans the least. And their TV money is split evenly among teams.
  #5  
Old 05-04-2020, 06:19 AM
kitap is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 592
They're not going to stop going to Lambeau over this. Nope nope nope.
  #6  
Old 05-04-2020, 06:34 AM
penultima thule is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Sydney, Australia
Posts: 3,511
Recent reports indicate CO2 levels have dropped by 5% and plenty of anecdotal reports of the improvement in air quality at destinations. So you’d think the environmental movement might come out of this stronger. But not necessarily.

The problem being to hit the Paris target emissions need to drop by 7% and there would be plenty of examples for the climate change deniers over on the economic impact of achieving those targets.

Also with oil prices down at levels not seen since the 80’ the cost competitiveness of alternative fuels has copped a kicking.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...he-environment

Last edited by penultima thule; 05-04-2020 at 06:34 AM.
  #7  
Old 05-04-2020, 07:14 AM
Jane Elliot is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: USA
Posts: 302
I think blowing out candles on a birthday cake is canceled. So much potential for disease transfer.
  #8  
Old 05-04-2020, 07:33 AM
Fretful Porpentine is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 1999
Location: Bohemia. A seacoast.
Posts: 6,812
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Feldon View Post
Not much. It might accelerate some trends that were already occurring, like the death of many exurban and rural shopping malls (which isn't the same as all malls being "FINISHED") but there won't be any huge changes to the way we live our lives. Meetings will bounce back to a level that's much higher than "all but eliminated," people will shake hands, political conventions will remain, etc.

In ten or twenty years, there will be some prestigious must-watch documentary about these months and we'll be surprised at how quickly we forgot (and how unprepared we still are for the next one).
Agreed. I think people are way, way overestimating the effect this will have on society in general. (For comparison purposes, we've heard a lot about the Spanish flu of late, but there are two pandemics within living memory that killed 1,000,000+ people worldwide, in 1957-58 and 1968-69. And ... nobody remembers them. I asked my parents, who are old enough to remember, and they had no idea these events even occurred. There was, I have heard, a rather well-attended music festival in 1969, a matter of months after 100,000 people in the US died of flu.)
  #9  
Old 05-04-2020, 08:35 AM
snowthx's Avatar
snowthx is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Sacratomato area
Posts: 3,867
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fretful Porpentine View Post
Agreed. I think people are way, way overestimating the effect this will have on society in general. (For comparison purposes, we've heard a lot about the Spanish flu of late, but there are two pandemics within living memory that killed 1,000,000+ people worldwide, in 1957-58 and 1968-69. And ... nobody remembers them. I asked my parents, who are old enough to remember, and they had no idea these events even occurred. There was, I have heard, a rather well-attended music festival in 1969, a matter of months after 100,000 people in the US died of flu.)
I tend to agree with this line of thinking. The most visible change to American life (and other countries) will be the prevalence of masks in public spaces - they will become more widely accepted and seen, especially in places with crowds, like airports, buses, trains, etc. Just look at SE Asian countries after the SARS outbreak - they went on with life with a few modest adjustments - they did not just retreat to their homes and become shut-ins.

I think sporting events will eventually be able to support fans in-person, once data shows widespread herd immunity and a vaccine is on hand. There will be less tolerance for vaccine waivers for non-medical reasons, hopefully (if you want to live in this community, get your freakin' shots!).

Shopping malls in many cities were already on the bubble, as are many brick-and-mortar retailers. While this could accelerate their demise, many were already circling the bowl before the pandemic and were likely to be gone within 5 years anyway.
  #10  
Old 05-04-2020, 08:46 AM
Mdcastle is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 2,243
Quote:
Originally Posted by penultima thule View Post
Recent reports indicate CO2 levels have dropped by 5% and plenty of anecdotal reports of the improvement in air quality at destinations. So you’d think the environmental movement might come out of this stronger. But not necessarily.

The problem being to hit the Paris target emissions need to drop by 7% and there would be plenty of examples for the climate change deniers over on the economic impact of achieving those targets.

Also with oil prices down at levels not seen since the 80’ the cost competitiveness of alternative fuels has copped a kicking.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...he-environment
If this is what the economy looks like with a 5% reductions I'd hate to see it with a 7% reduction. It only reinforces the point some have made that we needed to get out of Paris to avoid having our economy look like this permanently and it's a fair opinion that climate change is real but it's too devastating to do something about at this current point in time.

As for changes, I can foresee the increased popularity of fast food drive-thrus, it would seem they're a relatively safe method of getting food. They could be made even safer with adding a card reader to the menu board and having a double "sally port / automat" window for getting your food. Maybe places like Chipoltle and Subway will add them.

But overall I agree nothing much will change except for a rash of low budget documentaries in a few years.
  #11  
Old 05-04-2020, 08:46 AM
OldOlds is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 861
And I think the demise of in-person meetings is over stated. For years companies have been trying to eliminate costly travel, promoting Telepresence and the like. But it just isn't the same. A product launch workout is much better with the 10 key functions in the room. A contract negotiation is much more effective when we can sit face to face and go through the 100 pages with no distractions. And lots of activities- tech transfer, troubleshooting, etc really can't be done remotely.

I've been through at least three cycles of "Travel is Obsolete" and not one of them has stuck.
  #12  
Old 05-04-2020, 08:54 AM
Manda JO is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 1999
Posts: 12,098
It really depends on whether or not we get a vaccine, and when. If there's a viable vaccine soonish--even if it takes a while to actually get it to everyone--we will all go in a holding pattern, waiting for normal to come back. If there isn't, or if it starts to look like it will take years, we will have to make structural changes.
  #13  
Old 05-04-2020, 09:30 AM
Urbanredneck is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 8,502
Will shaking hands go away?
  #14  
Old 05-04-2020, 09:43 AM
snowthx's Avatar
snowthx is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Sacratomato area
Posts: 3,867
Quote:
Originally Posted by Urbanredneck View Post
Will shaking hands go away?
I don't think so. But, it will come back with more awareness about washing and sanitizing your hands. I think we all are going to be more aware of when we touch anything in public (shopping cart, handrail, buttons and screens of any kind, someone else's hand) and immediately feel dirty enough to seek the nearest soapy wash or hand sanitizer. IMHO this is a welcome change and long overdue.

I think we will also be more judicial about who we shake hands with and ask ourselves "is a handshake really necessary in this situation?"
  #15  
Old 05-04-2020, 09:50 AM
doreen is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Woodhaven,Queens, NY
Posts: 7,090
I think the permanent changes are going to involve the sort of things where large, in-person gatherings don't add anything to the experience. Sports with spectators will return and so will restaurants and movie theaters and bowling alleys. There may be fewer shopping malls and in-person meetings, but there will always be things that people want to look at/touch/try on before they buy and while meetings involving hundreds of people flying in from all over the country will be less common than the were before , the Web Ex meetings that involve five people who all work in the same building will probably go back to in-person.

But nothing is gained by requiring that marriage license applications be submitted in person, although that was a requirement up until last week. I don't think notarization in person adds anything over a video call and ID, but in-person was required in my state until a few weeks ago. In fact , there's nothing gained by requiring most applications/documents to be submitted in person rather than by mail or email. My son has had a few experiences* in the past six weeks where form letters have directed him to provide various documents in-person but the body of the email says in BIG BOLD LETTERS not to come in person but to email or mail the documents instead. I suspect that most of these practices will at least remain as options - maybe you'll be apply to apply for that marriage license in person, but online applications will also be available.






* affordable housing applications and a workers comp claim
  #16  
Old 05-04-2020, 10:11 AM
Isosleepy's Avatar
Isosleepy is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 1999
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 2,206
Mail in ballots will be easier for some states (like here in Pennsylvania)
The trend to working from home will accelerate, but it won’t be that huge a change: most who worked in an office will do so again, at least for now. But this crisis will accelerate the trend of businesses allowing it as an option - for some.
Flex time will make further inroads
Some car makers will bite the dust, and not be replaced.
Many bars/restaurants will bite the dust. Most will ultimately be replaced - though in some locales this could take a couple years
Grocery delivery will have a continued larger share of the market. “Dark” grocery stores may become a permanent thing in areas: ie stores only used to fulfill online orders, in parallel with regular groceries
Some individual hotels will shutter, ultimately bought by new owners. I expect all the same chains to be around, though consolidation will continue
Massive changes to supply chains. This pandemic showed the weakness of a global just in time chain. I expect more of our parts production for US manufacturing to be in Mexico, US and Canada
In-person meetings will still be a thing
Malls continue contraction, and this will accelerate. There will still be groups of storefronts within 30 minutes of you 20 years from now, though.
  #17  
Old 05-04-2020, 10:24 AM
Corry El is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 4,388
Quote:
Originally Posted by russian heel View Post
I am an optimist. But make no mistake, our country will emerge from this a lot different from when it entered this Shit Show:

1. Lack of need for live fans at sporting events.
2. Shopping malls: FINISHED.
3. Corporate "in-person" meetings all but eliminated
4. Elimination of the Republican and Democrat Conventions.
I'm not sure that adds up to 'a lot different' even if one fully agreed with all those. I'd go in the squishy middle between 'a lot different' and 'people will forget'. Although it obviously depends as others mentioned how long it takes to have vaccine and/or other treatments that remove most of the risk of very bad outcomes from the disease, and also assuming the virus doesn't mutate into something much more dangerous and harder to combat. But on the optimistic to middling cases for vaccines and treatments say those are within 2020 or 2021 respectively, seems to me much less potential for permanent change than if there's no defense but distancing for years.

All for an optimistic to middling scenario on vaccine/treatment:
1. There is no 'need' but I see no fan events as very unlikely to become the norm.
2. Accelerates a down trend for malls (somebody said in rural and ex-urban areas, but general trend away from people living in cities or close suburbs is also possible so not sure which malls are worst off). But not finished.
3. Like malls, but also how big a change to overall life is this really?
4. Most people don't care.

I realize you were listing 'for examples' so one item being minor doesn't refute your thesis overall, but I don't happen to think it will be really big change overall.

A bigger though maybe fairly subtle one though would be as mentioned in 2, already a previous moderate trend toward Americans moving to cities seemed to be reversing (certainly for the few biggest cities). For example where I live, inner NY area, we may be hearing about the population decline trend accelerating in coming years and attributed at least partly to the pandemic. Whether that will be really be the 'cause' might be debated (less immigration which had been offsetting a steady net outflow of native born people, more incentive to escape the high state/local taxes since the 2018 tax law*, technology trends).

The point about people forgetting bad stuff remarkably fast has to be accounted for. Then again in particular industries and geographic areas, the pandemic could catalyze significant change, then in future years people will debate how much was really the *cause* of that.

*I doubt other than large Democratic majorities in Congress would restore the full SALT deduction. It *is* a benefit to mainly higher income tax payers mainly in certain few states. The incentive for Democrats who narrowly won in swing states/districts to spend their political capital on that? And when high income earners leave or don't come that can have a broader economic impact in the affected areas.
  #18  
Old 05-04-2020, 10:31 AM
Dewey Finn is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 30,675
Quote:
Originally Posted by russian heel View Post
1. Lack of need for live fans at sporting events. I think the advent of NASCAR returning with no fans later this month and maybe MLB playing a limited schedule with no fans later this summer, if successful, will transform professional sports from a fan to TV experience once and for all. This does not mean fans will not be allowed into games ever again, but will make fan attendance all but a non-issue with calculating a teams revenue, as a matter of fact, will skyrocket ticket prices and lead to smaller stadiums as rebuilt.
I don't know about NASCAR but I can't imagine basketball or hockey without an in-person audience. Much of the excitement of March Madness is from the presence in the arena of the large crowds from the schools that are playing. I'm not much of a basketball fan, but it's going to be boring to watch a game played in an empty room. The sounds of the sneakers squeaking on the hardwood and of the ball bouncing should not be the loudest ones in the room.
  #19  
Old 05-04-2020, 10:54 AM
kayaker's Avatar
kayaker is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Rural Western PA
Posts: 34,801
Quote:
Originally Posted by Urbanredneck View Post
Will shaking hands go away?
I'm pretty certain I've shaken my last hand. Never liked the tradition, now I have a reason for my peculiarity.

ETA: Working from home is going to be way more common. My gf actually has renegotiated her contract to eventually have her in the office two days a week and working from home two days a week.

Last edited by kayaker; 05-04-2020 at 10:56 AM.
  #20  
Old 05-04-2020, 11:14 AM
TriPolar is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: rhode island
Posts: 42,184
A ton of people will wear masks in public even if there's no known current outbreak of contagious disease. Even after a Corona virus vaccine is developed for a year or two we might see 50% or more of people wearing masks on the streets and in public transportation, planes, elevators, etc.. I'd add sports and movies too but not sure if those will survive. Even after that I wouldn't be surprised to see 10% or more of the population continue to wear masks, largely people at risk but also the cautious. Look at a playground and you'll likely see kids wearing masks while their helicopter mask wearing parents and nannies have them on as well.
  #21  
Old 05-04-2020, 11:23 AM
Icarus's Avatar
Icarus is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: In front of my PC, y tu?
Posts: 5,707
ISTM that even before this pandemic, there has been a great push to living online and remote activities. Now we are seeing acceleration of this trend with more acceptance of working from home, and ramping up of delivery services, etc.

I do believe that we will see more ghost grocery stores where they exist solely for delivery supply. There has been a trend of delivery-only restaurants already in urban areas, so I see this spilling into grocery store, liquor stores, etc.

In general, it is clear that many (including in this thread) are questioning the need for in-person interaction. Personally, I believe there is some ineffable value in in-person interaction. Watching a movie at home is just not the same as going to a movie theater and having a shared audience experience. Same with sporting events, comedy performances, live theatre, live music, live speakers (TED talk, etc.). Business meetings in-person are better than ZOOM. In-person training and classes are better.

But, I accept that trends are moving in the opposite direction. A lot of people really prefer the comfort of their homes and seeing things on TV or working solely online. (My opinion is that they are missing something important, but that's not the debate I'm trying to have.)

So, wrapping this all up and taking it to the logical conclusion - people staying home and eschewing human interaction generally - my prediction is that there will be a greater acceptance of sex work, that it will eventually be broadly legalized, and will become even more of an on-call "delivery service" industry.
__________________
Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge.
- C. Darwin
  #22  
Old 05-04-2020, 12:06 PM
Stranger On A Train is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Manor Farm
Posts: 19,869
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fretful Porpentine View Post
Agreed. I think people are way, way overestimating the effect this will have on society in general. (For comparison purposes, we've heard a lot about the Spanish flu of late, but there are two pandemics within living memory that killed 1,000,000+ people worldwide, in 1957-58 and 1968-69. And ... nobody remembers them. I asked my parents, who are old enough to remember, and they had no idea these events even occurred. There was, I have heard, a rather well-attended music festival in 1969, a matter of months after 100,000 people in the US died of flu.)
Hell, most people don't remember the 2009-10 H1N1/09 influenza pandemic even though it may have caused upward of half a million deaths worldwide. (The abysmal lack of testing--only 1.6 million confirmed cases but epidemiological estimates of infection vary from 50M to 1.5B--highlights how little we actually understand about transmissible disease even after it has occurred.) While that flu--which is in the same hemagglutinin/neuraminidase subtype as the 1918-19 'Spanish Flu'--turned out to have no greater of an estimated infection fatality rate than the typical seasonal influenza strains, as with Spanish Flu most deaths were a result of cytokine release syndrome and disproportionately affected people under the age of 65, and it is still not understood why that strain was not more lethal compared to the stain responsible for the 1918-19 pandemic.

As for permanent changes to American (and other) societies, I have to agree with Lord Feldon, Fretful Porpentine, et al that the only real changes will be those that were already occurring anyway such as the death of shopping malls, a switch to online voting for both primary and general elections, et cetera, and these are more a matter of convenience than fear of contracting the virus. Hell, we are in the square middle of the pandemic and by every expert accounting we have not even seen the peak in developed nations (which has been suppressed by the various distancing and isolation measures) and yet people are already agitating to go to crowded beaches, hair salons, restaurants, et cetera. Most people simply don't believe that they will be one of the unlucky ~1% who present a critical case if infected unless they have been personally impacted, and once this pandemic passes (as it will, whether we get a working vaccine or not, although the SARS-CoV-2 virus is likely to become endemic due to the fact that domestic animals can serve as reservoirs) people will go back to their normal lifestyle because the constant stress (emotional, financial, and social) is untenable in the face of an invisible threat. Of course sporting and entertainment events will return because they are very popular and financially rewarding for venue owners and participants, and of course business travel will resume because many people live for this (although if the airlines really take it on the chin and petroleum prices ramp up and don't return, it may be a lot more expensive and therefore infrequent, but not because people don't want to travel). Really, the more serious effects that will be remembered of this pandemic are going to be a serious economic recession and the impact upon food production and distribution systems rather than the direct effects of the disease itself.

I suspect the most permanent changes specifically related to the pandemic is that many nations will implement permanent screening criteria into their visa/entrance process, which may include antibody testing, certification of health, et cetera. We may see some changes in grocery and retail to automate checkout and improve sanitation, although how extensive these are depends on how much store owners want to invest in the infrastructure. This likely means that many of the jobs that have gone away during the pandemic will not come back, and some of the front line positions that expose people to contagion may also be changed or eliminated in favor of automation (which was an already existing trend based upon cost savings). Small businesses will continue to struggle and many will also not return. 'Gig' work will continue because our economy has a significant interest in it, and while I would hope that there would be more consideration for the 'social support' systems such as some kind of universal health care, basic income assistance, and other support services such that people running small businesses doing gig jobs don't have to live in constant fear from paycheck to paycheck to just have access to essential needs, that all depends upon the political will of society as a whole to recognize this as a fundamental problem.

I would hope that this pandemic will also result in more robust epidemiological surveillance systems for highly infectious pathogens and more of a focus on catching and containing outbreaks before they become pandemics but I have little hope for that, either. As this pandemic fades and pressing security, resource scarcity, and other global conflicts come to the forefront, people will just remember this as being "that year (or two) that we dealt with COVID-19" and not take away the lesson of the damage that even this comparatively mild pandemic can do to our fragile global distribution systems as well as the damage from misinformation, both deliberate and borne from mistrust of governments to disseminate factual information and provide useful guidance. We are in desperate need of a pan-national organization that is truly independent of the influence of individual nations (as the World Health Organization has been shown to be) to dealt with this unique kind of threat because infectious pathogens do not respect national borders or political interests, but of course that will not occur.

Stranger
  #23  
Old 05-04-2020, 12:31 PM
Smapti is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Olympia, WA
Posts: 16,928
None.
  #24  
Old 05-04-2020, 12:34 PM
Procrustus is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Pacific NW. ¥
Posts: 13,122
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smapti View Post
None.
If the OP is asking about changes due to fear of the next pandemic, then I would agree "none." Once this is past, I don't see a big fear of the next one.

However, this is accelerating people's awareness of new ways of doing things. Grocery delivery, working from home, voting by mail, etc., could catch on just because they're easier or better, regardless of any health benefits.
  #25  
Old 05-04-2020, 12:43 PM
El_Kabong's Avatar
El_Kabong is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Smack Dab in the Middle
Posts: 15,962
Quote:
Originally Posted by kayaker View Post
I'm pretty certain I've shaken my last hand. Never liked the tradition, now I have a reason for my peculiarity.
Hear, hear. That's something I won't miss.
  #26  
Old 05-04-2020, 12:51 PM
El_Kabong's Avatar
El_Kabong is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Smack Dab in the Middle
Posts: 15,962
Actually, one thing I haven't seen mentioned yet is that one can see a more compelling case for a universal health care system on the European model, in a time when enormous numbers of people lose their jobs and, in many cases, the medical plans that were tied to those jobs.
  #27  
Old 05-04-2020, 12:52 PM
pullin is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: N Texas
Posts: 3,331
Just WAGs -- changes that might happen.

It's possible we're entering the nastiest recession in living memory, maybe even the 'D' word. The following seem likely, although they were in progress and will merely accelerate:

- The collapse of expensive hobbies, as they lose sufficient membership to support themselves. Most of these require a supply chain of those who build, sell and maintain the equipment. For example, would you spend the money and time to become a small airplane mechanic? Airframe and Powerplant schools can last five years and cost as much as expensive colleges. With fewer and fewer people able to afford Cessnas/etc. it seems like a dying field. And that could be self-fulfilling I guess. Ditto for mainstream market boats, as fewer and fewer risk the training time or expense to build a business around them. Hunting as a sport will probably face the same problems -- fewer and fewer participants, causing rising prices, causing fewer to participate, and on and on. Most of these will have a few super rich participants at the top, in large yachts, high dollar safaris, or business jets, but as hobbies they may all but disappear. I'm sure there are a lot more, but these come to mind first.

- A lot fewer restaurants and small businesses, at least for a while. Those jillions of dollars in PPP and SBA loans are payment deferred I think. If I understand it correctly, the payments start coming due in December, right as merchants hope for their big Christmas profits. I hope I'm wrong, but I think Christmas will be pretty bleak this year. And all those small businesses hoping for a holiday rush to help with the new bills will be in trouble. I hate it, but I'd guess many of them won't be around in January.
  #28  
Old 05-04-2020, 01:44 PM
running coach's Avatar
running coach is offline
Arms of Steel, Leg of Jello
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Riding my handcycle
Posts: 38,271
Quote:
Originally Posted by kayaker View Post
I'm pretty certain I've shaken my last hand. Never liked the tradition, now I have a reason for my peculiarity.
Quote:
Originally Posted by El_Kabong View Post
Hear, hear. That's something I won't miss.
Maybe we'll adopt the Demolition Man high five.
  #29  
Old 05-04-2020, 01:48 PM
Procrustus is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Pacific NW. ¥
Posts: 13,122
Quote:
Originally Posted by pullin View Post
I hope I'm wrong, but I think Christmas will be pretty bleak this year. And all those small businesses hoping for a holiday rush to help with the new bills will be in trouble. I hate it, but I'd guess many of them won't be around in January.
I too would hate to see those businesses suffer, but I would love to live in a world where Christmas was a minor holiday with much less emphasis on gifts and that took only a week or two of our attention.
  #30  
Old 05-04-2020, 01:48 PM
Stranger On A Train is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Manor Farm
Posts: 19,869
Quote:
Originally Posted by running coach View Post
Maybe we'll adopt the Demolition Man high five.
Of all of the things that Demolition Man has predicted, that is the most prescient. I'm still waiting for the "three seashells" and am desperately hoping that Taco Bell does not win the Restaurant Wars.

Stranger
  #31  
Old 05-04-2020, 02:01 PM
DrDeth is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: San Jose
Posts: 44,762
Quote:
Originally Posted by russian heel View Post
I am an optimist. But make no mistake, our country will emerge from this a lot different from when it entered this Shit Show:

1. Lack of need for live fans at sporting events.....

2. Shopping malls: FINISHED.

3. Corporate "in-person" meetings all but eliminated (creepily shown on many TV shows and movies pre-Virus). There is no reason to have dozens or hundreds of employees to spend hours of risky and expensive travel to attend a face to face meeting that can be handled for all but free online.

4. Elimination of the Republican and Democrat Conventions. ....

America will survive----but what else will we deal with once COVID-19 flies away?????

No major changes:

1. Nope, people will flock back. Why shouldn't they?
2. Nope, people will flock back. Why shouldn't they?
3. Yes, many companies have found video conferencing works and is cheaper. More working from home. Not a massive change, but certainly a long term one.

4. No, they still serve a purpose in getting the electorate het up.

I dont expect any other real long term changes after Covid is beat. Until then, certainly.
  #32  
Old 05-04-2020, 02:03 PM
DrDeth is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: San Jose
Posts: 44,762
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Feldon View Post
Not much. It might accelerate some trends that were already occurring, like the death of many exurban and rural shopping malls (which isn't the same as all malls being "FINISHED") but there won't be any huge changes to the way we live our lives. Meetings will bounce back to a level that's much higher than "all but eliminated," people will shake hands, political conventions will remain, etc.

In ten or twenty years, there will be some prestigious must-watch documentary about these months and we'll be surprised at how quickly we forgot (and how unprepared we still are for the next one).
I concur. Yes, more working from home, more videoconferencing and yes, Malls that were teetering will be finished off- they were dying anyway.
  #33  
Old 05-04-2020, 02:18 PM
AK84 is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 17,027
The biggest long term changes will be.

1. Much more local production of medical devices, the world over. Governments will insist on it, even to the point of supporting unprofitable companies and uneconomical production units.
2. Public Health will be seen as a national security issue. Already intelligence agencies the world over are assisting in the track, trace, and quarantine programs, either overtly, like in Israel or Pakistan or behind the scenes. This will be used to justify a metric fuckton of surveillance and data collection. I think in the future our mobile devices will be able to record things like temperature, heartbeat, blood pressure, and store it, accessible to the medical authorities. Privacy will mean something else.
3. International Travel will be restricted for the foreseeable future. Visa-free travel might and probably some sort of health screening will have to be done as standard. Possibly technology will be used to make it fast and convenient, eventually.
  #34  
Old 05-04-2020, 02:34 PM
bump is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Dallas, TX
Posts: 19,675
Quote:
Originally Posted by russian heel View Post
I am an optimist. But make no mistake, our country will emerge from this a lot different from when it entered this Shit Show:

1. Lack of need for live fans at sporting events. I think the advent of NASCAR returning with no fans later this month and maybe MLB playing a limited schedule with no fans later this summer, if successful, will transform professional sports from a fan to TV experience once and for all. This does not mean fans will not be allowed into games ever again, but will make fan attendance all but a non-issue with calculating a teams revenue, as a matter of fact, will skyrocket ticket prices and lead to smaller stadiums as rebuilt.
I disagree. While I think this year's summer sports seasons will be pretty strange, I think that there's just a fundamental difference between watching a sporting event live, vs. on TV. Especially with college sports and all the tradition/pageantry surrounding it.


Quote:
Originally Posted by russian heel View Post
2. Shopping malls: FINISHED.
That was the case beforehand anyway; at worst, this is a minor acceleration of an existing process.

Quote:
Originally Posted by russian heel View Post
3. Corporate "in-person" meetings all but eliminated (creepily shown on many TV shows and movies pre-Virus). There is no reason to have dozens or hundreds of employees to spend hours of risky and expensive travel to attend a face to face meeting that can be handled for all but free online.
I doubt it... managers have too much invested in controlling their employees to agree to perpetual WFH, and as much as I don't like meetings, there's a lot of utility to face-to-face meetings that you just don't get over zoom/gotomeeting/skype/Webex (i'm on one as we speak; couldn't do that in person!)


Quote:
Originally Posted by russian heel View Post
4. Elimination of the Republican and Democrat Conventions. Lets be honest, these have become a joke: we already know who the Nominees are going to be, no one cares about 4 nights of boring speeches, there is finally proof that online, we can pick the Presidential candidates.

America will survive----but what else will we deal with once COVID-19 flies away?????
I have a feeling that the most profound effects will be ones that are unforeseen, or subtle. For example, we're feeling the pain of disruptions to the JIT supply chains from farm-to-table right now. Will those supply chains change? Will food prices go up as a result?

I think what we'll see is less earthshaking overall. We'll be sort of permanently socially distanced- maybe not six feet, but less up in others' personal space than before, and hygiene/sneeze and cough habits will be much more scrutinized.

I think WFH will get a larger measure of acceptance, if only because companies have been forced to do it, and are realizing that the places aren't falling apart or burning down without having their workers directly under their thumbs.

I think we'll see a series of oscillations in the various supply chains over time, as producers overproduce to meet current demand, and then are faced with a glut, etc... For example, we'll see LOTS of flour, then a shortage, and then a lesser glut, and lesser shortage, etc... while they figure out the constant demand.

I know people will be MUCH more prepper-minded. LOTS of people are going to lay in stocks of toilet paper and keep it up over time, in case there's another pandemic or natural disaster. Same for hand sanitizer, flour, etc...
  #35  
Old 05-04-2020, 02:46 PM
AK84 is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 17,027
I expect hand sanitizer will be standard stuff in offices and homes. And probably places like cinemas. The same way as hospitals have it everywhere, with dispensers nailed to the walls. As you enter a place, etiquette will demand that you clean your hands with it.
  #36  
Old 05-04-2020, 03:12 PM
RickJay is offline
Charter Jays Fan
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Oakville, Canada
Posts: 43,056
Long term, nothing will change. Not one thing; there will be changes in the short term, but within a year or two not a single thing will be different that wouldn't have been different anyway.

The capacity of people to shrug and just move on is limitless. Come 2021, or at the absolute latest 2022, nothing about how we live our lives will be any different than it was in 2019. The economy will be bad for 2-4 years at least, but that's not a permanent change; recessions come and go.
__________________
Providing useless posts since 1999!
  #37  
Old 05-04-2020, 03:35 PM
RioRico is offline
Suspended
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: beyond cell service
Posts: 3,193
Quote:
Originally Posted by RickJay View Post
Long term, nothing will change. Not one thing; there will be changes in the short term, but within a year or two not a single thing will be different that wouldn't have been different anyway.

The capacity of people to shrug and just move on is limitless. Come 2021, or at the absolute latest 2022, nothing about how we live our lives will be any different than it was in 2019. The economy will be bad for 2-4 years at least, but that's not a permanent change; recessions come and go.
Total agreement, alas. People will still crowd together carelessly. Pickpockets will return. Failed businesses will be bought cheap, but bidness will run on as supply meets demand. Any lasting changes will be products of technology and not this relatively brief contagion, same as the transformation of a century ago.

And lazy political powers won't prepare foor the next pandemics which will appear at ever-shorter intervals. Get ready for the 2025 plague.
  #38  
Old 05-04-2020, 04:17 PM
Urbanredneck is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 8,502
Without shopping malls and movie theaters, and then school closings, what will life be for our youth?
  #39  
Old 05-04-2020, 04:20 PM
snowthx's Avatar
snowthx is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Sacratomato area
Posts: 3,867
Quote:
Originally Posted by Urbanredneck View Post
Without shopping malls and movie theaters, and then school closings, what will life be for our youth?
Probably like the trend that is already under way - they will live thru their phones and video games.

Last edited by snowthx; 05-04-2020 at 04:21 PM.
  #40  
Old 05-04-2020, 04:21 PM
Urbanredneck is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 8,502
Related to above.

And then colleges. Already there are stories of many students expecting some sort of refund from colleges where they were paying at least partly for the on-campus experience. The professors. The labs. The whole campus experience. They arent getting that online and want their money back. So will fewer students choose to go to out of state colleges?

HERE is a site for a class action suit.

Will colleges keep offering sports scholarships if they have no teams playing?
  #41  
Old 05-04-2020, 04:24 PM
iamthewalrus(:3= is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Santa Barbara, CA
Posts: 12,525
Quote:
Originally Posted by pullin View Post
Hunting as a sport will probably face the same problems -- fewer and fewer participants, causing rising prices, causing fewer to participate, and on and on.
I could be way off base here, because I am not a hunter, but... it doesn't take very many deer to pay for a rifle and a chest freezer. I'd expect hunting to increase in a recession/depression.

I expect very few long-term changes. A decade from now won't look dramatically different than it would have looked in the absence of COVID-19. Some trends that are already underway are going to accelerate, but they would have any way. More people will work from home, but that was already going to happen. People will go to the movies less, but that has more to do with the cheap 70" OLED screens we can pick up at Costco.

I am definitely not going to stop going to sporting events or blowing out birthday candles or shaking hands once the present danger is past, nor will most people.
  #42  
Old 05-04-2020, 04:32 PM
Corry El is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 4,388
Quote:
Originally Posted by RickJay View Post
Long term, nothing will change. Not one thing; there will be changes in the short term, but within a year or two not a single thing will be different that wouldn't have been different anyway.

The capacity of people to shrug and just move on is limitless. Come 2021, or at the absolute latest 2022, nothing about how we live our lives will be any different than it was in 2019. The economy will be bad for 2-4 years at least, but that's not a permanent change; recessions come and go.
I don't foresee really major change. But a parallel might be the September 11 attacks, in terms of domestic life and economy anyway. It was often billed in media as 'changing our lives forever'. A big overstatement, but there are various measures adopted which have turned into persistent rituals, the TSA when flying plus heightened security in various other settings. Again speaking of ordinary domestic life; people are more likely to think intelligence gathering or military operations following 9/11 have been a real negative or positive, few think those were a charade like many view the TSA thing. COVID probably actually has some potential to change international relations to the degree populists in countries heavily affected stir up hostility to China, again probably not dramatic. But I predict not literally nothing in 5 or 10 yrs from now, at least some noticeable costs society will incur it would not have, even if they are arguably not good insurance against a repeat. Also plenty of unprovable arguments 'that would have happened exactly the same anyway/no not really' for things like commerce moving to non-contact modes.

Also one quantitative change is known, higher debt levels as % of GDP, worldwide, than otherwise. Many people are convinced that has no effect on anything but that's their opinion not a fact. Not everyone who thinks that is poorly informed though many are; anyway that doesn't make it true. 'The economy coming back' as say measured by annual GDP surpassing previous nominal or even real peak may well happen in a couple of years (no gtee that it will), but under a higher debt load which will not not go back to the previous level easily. That could have a significant effect for a much longer time.
  #43  
Old 05-04-2020, 04:37 PM
Stranger On A Train is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Manor Farm
Posts: 19,869
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamthewalrus(:3= View Post
I could be way off base here, because I am not a hunter, but... it doesn't take very many deer to pay for a rifle and a chest freezer. I'd expect hunting to increase in a recession/depression.
It takes more than just purchasing a rifle to become an effective hunter. Admittedly, hunting deer is pretty easy because of how overpopulated they are (owing to a reduction of both predators and expansion of suburbs) but if you suddenly had a large increase of hunters, the deer population would shrink and they would become far less populous and more skittish.

Also, in my experience, most people raised on corn-fed beef and industrially farmed chicken and pork do not take to the taste of most wild game and hunting wild game certainly isn’t going to replace the scale of factory-farmed meat that Western society consumes. From a protein-replacement standpoint, raising chickens and rabbits for meat makes a lot more sense, although I doubt most people are going to be willing to do that, especially if they have to twist Peter Rabbit’s in front of their children.

Stranger

Last edited by Stranger On A Train; 05-04-2020 at 04:41 PM.
  #44  
Old 05-04-2020, 04:37 PM
DrDeth is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: San Jose
Posts: 44,762
Quote:
Originally Posted by AK84 View Post
I expect hand sanitizer will be standard stuff in offices and homes. And probably places like cinemas. The same way as hospitals have it everywhere, with dispensers nailed to the walls. As you enter a place, etiquette will demand that you clean your hands with it.
Yes, that makes sense.
  #45  
Old 05-04-2020, 06:34 PM
iamthewalrus(:3= is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Santa Barbara, CA
Posts: 12,525
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stranger On A Train View Post
It takes more than just purchasing a rifle to become an effective hunter. Admittedly, hunting deer is pretty easy because of how overpopulated they are (owing to a reduction of both predators and expansion of suburbs) but if you suddenly had a large increase of hunters, the deer population would shrink and they would become far less populous and more skittish.
Sure, but the post I responded to posited a reduction in the number of hunters. I just don't see that happening. I'm sure that if I lost my job I couldn't just buy a rifle and go bag myself a deer, but I know people who hunt. I'd ask them to teach me!

I did a quick search and found this article, which mentions that hunting and fishing permits increased during the Great Recession.

Now, as the article points out, it could be that existing hunters had more time on their hands due to unemployment, but that kinda comes out the same. More people involved in hunting is going to bring more people in too. If my buddy who I sometimes go to movies with tells me he's going hunting next weekend, maybe I'll join him?

None of your other points are wrong (agreed that people are squeamish, that game doesn't taste like farmed meat, and that hunting will not be on the scale of farming) I just don't see them adding up to there being less hunting in a recession.

Last edited by iamthewalrus(:3=; 05-04-2020 at 06:35 PM.
  #46  
Old 05-04-2020, 06:38 PM
Jay Z is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 95
Another vote for few if any changes.

This is predicated upon COVID-19 being an experience that will wane and not recur with any predictability. We certainly could have had a pandemic earlier, but we didn't. We'll have one again, but they will be at irregular intervals. We won't suddenly have a series of them because I really don't think the world has changed all that much.

Shaking hands? Not a primary transmitter of the virus. You're not protecting yourself by not shaking someone's hand if you are breathing the same air as them. So go ahead, but it really doesn't mean anything.

Modern hunting will never make a comeback in numbers. Many people don't have access to land. Factory farming will continue to produce meat much cheaper and better tasting than you can hunter for it. Sure, there are lots of deer, but lots of them live on land that no one hunts. Deer love fringes more than the deep woods, they love to duck in and out of tree stands around exurbs. You'd have better luck trying to hit one with your car.

The "fragile" supply chain is not changing either. Fragile in quotes because the stories of farmers destroying crops and animals do not speak to a shortage of food, rather to food production that is so just in time and specifically geared to particular industries that any upset causes significant adjustments. But it's not going to change. That's all driven by capital, which is king in our economy. Won't change.

Depression? The BIG one will be driven by economic events just like it was in 1929. By the economic structure of our society being too out of whack. COVID-19 isn't going to fix that.
  #47  
Old 05-04-2020, 07:18 PM
wolfpup's Avatar
wolfpup is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 11,732
Quote:
Originally Posted by russian heel View Post

1. Lack of need for live fans at sporting events. I think the advent of NASCAR returning with no fans later this month and maybe MLB playing a limited schedule with no fans later this summer, if successful, will transform professional sports from a fan to TV experience once and for all. This does not mean fans will not be allowed into games ever again, but will make fan attendance all but a non-issue with calculating a teams revenue, as a matter of fact, will skyrocket ticket prices and lead to smaller stadiums as rebuilt.

2. Shopping malls: FINISHED.

3. Corporate "in-person" meetings all but eliminated (creepily shown on many TV shows and movies pre-Virus). There is no reason to have dozens or hundreds of employees to spend hours of risky and expensive travel to attend a face to face meeting that can be handled for all but free online.

4. Elimination of the Republican and Democrat Conventions. Lets be honest, these have become a joke: we already know who the Nominees are going to be, no one cares about 4 nights of boring speeches, there is finally proof that online, we can pick the Presidential candidates.
I disagree with most of that, except -- as others have said -- the changes that have already been underway for some time.

1. Live fans are the heart and soul of professional sports. That's not going to change.

2. Shopping malls have been struggling for some time in the same way and for the same reasons as brick-and-mortar retailers, exacerbated by the loss of many big "anchor" department stores like Sears. But retailers are trying to reinvent themselves and many shopping malls in this area seemed to be doing OK before this crisis hit, with reasonably good traffic. There are no traditional indoor shopping malls in my immediate neighborhood, though there is one close by that is doing well, but the number of "shopping centers" in the form of clusters of retail stores is growing rapidly as the neighborhood expands.

3. I think the costs and inconvenience of travel and telecommunications advances are going to reduce travel for things like attending one single meeting, but probably not for multi-day events and conferences, which are an essential part of business and science.

4. The conventions are important PR for the parties and candidates and have the potential of raising enthusiasm among voters. They'll probably continue -- Lord knows there's enough money in politics to support these extravagant events -- though they may have to be virtual this year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
For sporting events the NHL does not get much TV money so they need fans the most. NFL gets a ton of TV money so they need fans the least. And their TV money is split evenly among teams.
The NHL is not that big in the US compared to other major league sports, but in Canada, Rogers Communications -- the country's largest cable company that also owns a sports network -- signed a 12-year deal a few years ago with the NHL worth over $5.2 billion for broadcast rights. I'd say that's pretty serious money.
  #48  
Old 05-04-2020, 08:14 PM
yo han go's Avatar
yo han go is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Europe
Posts: 392
I'd predict a pattern here ...

1. Normal.

2. Quarantine.

3. No more quarantine.

4. Not so normal anymore.

We are at 2. now, so we do not know what exactly 4 will look like, but my guess is it will not feel so normal anymore. Butterfly in Amazon might flapped it wings.
  #49  
Old 05-04-2020, 08:16 PM
alphaboi867 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: the Keystone State
Posts: 14,516
Hospital and nursing home visitation policies will be a lot stricter than they were pre-COVID19; it'll be like how how airport security changed after 9/11.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stranger On A Train View Post
Of all of the things that Demolition Man has predicted, that is the most prescient. I'm still waiting for the "three seashells" and am desperately hoping that Taco Bell does not win the Restaurant Wars.

Stranger
Huh, I just realized I've been eating alot more Taco Bell than normal.
__________________
No Gods, No Masters
  #50  
Old 05-04-2020, 08:20 PM
Stranger On A Train is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Manor Farm
Posts: 19,869
Quote:
Originally Posted by alphaboi867 View Post
Huh, I just realized I've been eating alot more Taco Bell than normal.
That's how you win a war; not with bombs and rifles, but with hearts and gullets.

Stranger
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:32 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2019 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017