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  #51  
Old 05-04-2020, 09:40 PM
Deeg is offline
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Originally Posted by Fretful Porpentine View Post
Agreed. I think people are way, way overestimating the effect this will have on society in general. (For comparison purposes, we've heard a lot about the Spanish flu of late, but there are two pandemics within living memory that killed 1,000,000+ people worldwide, in 1957-58 and 1968-69. And ... nobody remembers them. I asked my parents, who are old enough to remember, and they had no idea these events even occurred. There was, I have heard, a rather well-attended music festival in 1969, a matter of months after 100,000 people in the US died of flu.)
That's very interesting, thanks! I consider myself fairly knowledge about history and while I've heard of the terms "Asian" and "Hong Kong" flu I don't remember learning about either of those pandemics.

I don't think much will change after the pandemic nor do I think it should. Close to 9 million people will die this year in the US without the pandemic and, while non-trivial, COVID is only a small part of it. We are social animals and being social is an important part of quality of life. I will attend sporting events when this is all over, at least until I get older and become more susceptible to diseases.

The one thing that might change for at least the next few years is that more people will get the yearly flu vaccine. I've been pretty haphazard myself but I'll be more diligent.

I hope the anti-vax movement takes a hit. The current idiots will never leave their Good Ship Morons but hopefully fewer will board.
  #52  
Old 05-04-2020, 09:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Urbanredneck View Post
Related to above.

And then colleges. Already there are stories of many students expecting some sort of refund from colleges where they were paying at least partly for the on-campus experience. The professors. The labs. The whole campus experience. They arent getting that online and want their money back. So will fewer students choose to go to out of state colleges?
No. At most, for the Class of 2021. Everything will be back to normal one cycle after this ends.

Would you have turned down your dream school because of something that wasn't happening anymore? Me neither.

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Originally Posted by Corry El
lso one quantitative change is known, higher debt levels as % of GDP, worldwide, than otherwise. Many people are convinced that has no effect on anything but that's their opinion not a fact. Not everyone who thinks that is poorly informed though many are; anyway that doesn't make it true. 'The economy coming back' as say measured by annual GDP surpassing previous nominal or even real peak may well happen in a couple of years (no gtee that it will), but under a higher debt load which will not not go back to the previous level easily. That could have a significant effect for a much longer time.
That is certainly true; the economic effect is forever. Technically we are still suffering from the Depression; after all, we'd be richer had it never happened. I kind of took the OP as asking not whether permanent damage has been done (I mean, in that sense, 70,000 Americans are DEAD, and they're not coming back) but whether people will fundamentally behave differently. They will not.

I am not even convinced that the way old age homes are cleaned and taken care of will change. They might for awhile, but ultimately the same corners will be cut as money talks louder and louder.
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  #53  
Old 05-04-2020, 09:44 PM
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Originally Posted by AK84 View Post
I expect hand sanitizer will be standard stuff in offices and homes. And probably places like cinemas. The same way as hospitals have it everywhere, with dispensers nailed to the walls. As you enter a place, etiquette will demand that you clean your hands with it.
I dunno; if it's the anti-bacterial sanitizers then I hope not; in the long run they'll just make things worse. Alcohol-based sanitizers don't lead to resistant microbes but they're hell on your skin. Are there any other kinds? People should just wash their hands with regular soap and water.
  #54  
Old 05-04-2020, 09:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
For sporting events the NHL does not get much TV money so they need fans the most. NFL gets a ton of TV money so they need fans the least. And their TV money is split evenly among teams.
Even the NFL pulls in a hell of a lot of money from ticket sales - about $1 billion a year for the NFL - but even that number understates the case. There's more benefit to the spectator than just what they paid for tickets. Presence at a game tends to make a fan even more loyal. They buy more merchandise, and sports team merchandise is literally your customers paying you to advertise for you. Crowds also make the TV experience far more enjoyable.

Furthermore, sports stadiums are enormous investments, costing truly insane amounts of money. The idea that the team and the government owners of the stadium want it empty, is madness. They want that place filled to the brim, and they will sell the tickets as soon as the balance between public health and quarantine fatique allow it.
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  #55  
Old 05-05-2020, 12:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Fretful Porpentine View Post
Agreed. I think people are way, way overestimating the effect this will have on society in general. (For comparison purposes, we've heard a lot about the Spanish flu of late, but there are two pandemics within living memory that killed 1,000,000+ people worldwide, in 1957-58 and 1968-69. And ... nobody remembers them. I asked my parents, who are old enough to remember, and they had no idea these events even occurred. There was, I have heard, a rather well-attended music festival in 1969, a matter of months after 100,000 people in the US died of flu.)
Three things:

1. Social media did not exist, and the news coverage back then was not even a smidgen of what it is today.

2. America was still run by the Great Depression generation, and they sure as hell weren't gonna let a little "cold" shut things down. It's 2020 and we have a better understanding of pandemics and the majority of Americans are less willing to wholesale sacrifice the old and sick for a few Dow points.

3. As a result, this is the first time in 100 years America has seen a quarantine and a near-destruction of the economy within weeks. This will stick with us for decades to come.

Last edited by russian heel; 05-05-2020 at 12:10 AM.
  #56  
Old 05-05-2020, 12:12 AM
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Originally Posted by Lord Feldon View Post
In ten or twenty years, there will be some prestigious must-watch documentary about these months and we'll be surprised at how quickly we forgot (and how unprepared we still are for the next one).
I hope you are wrong about this. It is inconceivable to me that we won't have contact tracing and quarantine procedures at the ready when there is the next outbreak of another pestilence.
  #57  
Old 05-05-2020, 01:31 AM
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Yeah I am also skeptical there will be massive long-term changes. There may be moderate changes: less handshaking, more hand washing, more teleconferencing but life in 2025 will probably look pretty similar to 2019.

There could be big permanent changes in a worst-case scenario where no effective vaccine is discovered and where the virus mutates too much for people to develop effective immunity but this is very unlikely.
  #58  
Old 05-05-2020, 03:14 AM
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I am an optimist. But make no mistake, our country will emerge from this a lot different from when it entered this Shit Show:

1. Lack of need for live fans at sporting events. I think the advent of NASCAR returning with no fans later this month and maybe MLB playing a limited schedule with no fans later this summer, if successful, will transform professional sports from a fan to TV experience once and for all. This does not mean fans will not be allowed into games ever again, but will make fan attendance all but a non-issue with calculating a teams revenue, as a matter of fact, will skyrocket ticket prices and lead to smaller stadiums as rebuilt.

2. Shopping malls: FINISHED.

3. Corporate "in-person" meetings all but eliminated (creepily shown on many TV shows and movies pre-Virus). There is no reason to have dozens or hundreds of employees to spend hours of risky and expensive travel to attend a face to face meeting that can be handled for all but free online.

4. Elimination of the Republican and Democrat Conventions. Lets be honest, these have become a joke: we already know who the Nominees are going to be, no one cares about 4 nights of boring speeches, there is finally proof that online, we can pick the Presidential candidates.

America will survive----but what else will we deal with once COVID-19 flies away?????
For the most part, you couldn’t be more wrong.

1. Maybe you didn’t mean to come off so smug, but this sounds like a sportsball meme that people post on social media to make sure everyone knows that they are far too cool to watch sports and sneer at the unwashed masses who actually do care about such trivia.

2. Malls were definitely closing and those that survive will have to remake themselves. The era of the mall rat is over.

3. I’ve seen this movie before. Twice in adulthood, in fact. Once after 9/11 and once after the financial crisis. And yet, business travel continues. Multiple reasons. Some people are just natural social butterflies and often end up in managerial positions. Sales has always been a look them in the eye type of job. And important people like to get out and visit the peons in the regional offices, especially if it coordinates well with their leisure schedule.

4. Umm, ok. I’m sure there’s no benefit whatsoever in getting party activists, up and comers, current office holders, and political emerita together. There’s a lot more to conventions than just someone holding the state placard during the roll call saying, ‘Mr Chairman, the state of Florida with our beautiful beaches which will never be closed because of socialism casts 100 votes for ......’
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  #59  
Old 05-05-2020, 05:09 AM
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Business trips have never been primarily about business meetings. That's why they have them in resort communities. It's a perk of office that's got lots of tax advantages for what would be luxury expenditures. Sure, there are hard working executive in the world. Percentages are probably about the same as for any other large demographic segment. Retiring Senators, and Congresscritters get appointed to boards all the time. They come sit in a meeting four times a year, for an hour, and attend "working dinners" with the people they used to write laws "regulating." The bloated salary isn't enough to keep them interested, so you have junkets.
  #60  
Old 05-05-2020, 06:08 AM
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I don't know why otherwise intelligent posters like RickJay think that things will "not change". Lets just look at the major events of this century thus far, the War on Terror and the Financial crises.
Each of these had profound effects. Taken together they prematurely ended the United States unipolar moment and led to the rise of China. The Financial Crises led to the rise of the right and left-wing ideologies in most of the Western world.

This pandemic is by far the most important event of the century thus far. It will have long-lasting consequences.
  #61  
Old 05-05-2020, 06:32 AM
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My feelings basically coincide with Lord Feldon. People tend to forget over time and go back to old habits.
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  #62  
Old 05-05-2020, 06:46 AM
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I don't know why otherwise intelligent posters like RickJay think that things will "not change". Lets just look at the major events of this century thus far, the War on Terror and the Financial crises.
Each of these had profound effects. Taken together they prematurely ended the United States unipolar moment and led to the rise of China. The Financial Crises led to the rise of the right and left-wing ideologies in most of the Western world.

This pandemic is by far the most important event of the century thus far. It will have long-lasting consequences.
Exactly, it has further accelerated the decline of the US as a global power; Germany is emerging as the leader of the West. The virus and its fallout have also further exacerbated tensions between red and blue America, now red state politicians are explicitly talking about punishing blue state America. The rift is permanent and widening.

I also think this is the end of the white boomers as the hegemonic cultural force in the US.

Last edited by madmonk28; 05-05-2020 at 06:46 AM.
  #63  
Old 05-05-2020, 07:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Triskadecamus View Post
Business trips have never been primarily about business meetings. That's why they have them in resort communities. It's a perk of office that's got lots of tax advantages for what would be luxury expenditures. Sure, there are hard working executive in the world. Percentages are probably about the same as for any other large demographic segment. Retiring Senators, and Congresscritters get appointed to boards all the time. They come sit in a meeting four times a year, for an hour, and attend "working dinners" with the people they used to write laws "regulating." The bloated salary isn't enough to keep them interested, so you have junkets.
Iím going to ignore the swipe at Congress. I do think the resort type business meeting has been on its way out for a while, the 2008 financial crisis definitely helped escalate that.

At the company I was working for in 2009, some of the VPs held meetings announcing layoffs, a hiring freeze and giving a hunker down speech letting everybody know that bonuses and raises were gonna suck or be nonexistent.

A couple days later one of the admin people Ďaccidentallyí forwarded an email to my entire department with the itinerary for an upcoming executive VP meeting in Arizona. It consisted mainly of events such as a wine and cheese reception, horseback riding and golf at an exclusive resort. The actual work seemed to consist of a couple of talks from authors who churn out bullshit business books as well as a few PowerPoint presentations from company executives.

So, yes, I do think that type of business travel is dead. Not because of COVID risks but for the bad public image from such trips. That goes triple for any company taking bailout money.
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  #64  
Old 05-05-2020, 07:55 AM
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Business trips have never been primarily about business meetings. That's why they have them in resort communities.
What the hell are you talking about? What about the 99.99% of meetings that aren't at resorts?
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  #65  
Old 05-05-2020, 07:55 AM
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I don't know why otherwise intelligent posters like RickJay think that things will "not change". Lets just look at the major events of this century thus far, the War on Terror and the Financial crises.
Each of these had profound effects. Taken together they prematurely ended the United States unipolar moment and led to the rise of China. The Financial Crises led to the rise of the right and left-wing ideologies in most of the Western world.

This pandemic is by far the most important event of the century thus far. It will have long-lasting consequences.
Iím afraid Iím really going to have to disagree with you.

The rise of China started with Nixon going to China, the death of Mao, the world realizing you couldnít just ignore a massive nation of almost a billion people and pretend that Taiwan was the only China. Starting in the 1980s, China made a decision to develop a modern economy while trying to keep an authoritative form of government.

There have been left and right wing movements in the West since the development of the nation state and decline of monarchies. What examples do you have of the rise of the left? Obama and Trudeau got elected, yes, but they both are in the political mainstream for their respective countries.

I can see the rise of the right in Europe as a backlash against immigration. Thatís nothing new, itís been an issue since recovery after WW II. And, the EU and the Euro will always be a popular punching bag for populists. Iíve got no doubt that Russia has their dirty hands among some of the authoritarian instincts in Eastern Europe.

Perhaps the upcoming recession will lead to actual right or left wing ideologues gaining power, itís too early to tell.
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  #66  
Old 05-05-2020, 07:57 AM
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I don't know why otherwise intelligent posters like RickJay think that things will "not change". Lets just look at the major events of this century thus far, the War on Terror and the Financial crises.
Each of these had profound effects.
The financial crisis had no effect at all on how people behave day to day. The theory that it helped China become more powerful is interesting but has no effect on the life of the average American. That's what the OP was asking.

The GWOT made it a bit more inconvenient to board an airplane.
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  #67  
Old 05-05-2020, 08:50 AM
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The financial crisis had no effect at all on how people behave day to day. The theory that it helped China become more powerful is interesting but has no effect on the life of the average American. That's what the OP was asking.

The GWOT made it a bit more inconvenient to board an airplane.
Effect of GWOT is definitely a matter of perspective. I said before (I think...) that for everyday life in the US it's really mainly a matter of certain rituals at the airport and elsewhere. COVID will surely have its legacy rituals also, and these will impose costs of debatable value like the TSA etc legacy of 9/11. I also said if you exclude the foreign policy aspects which are arguably greater, but I think it's an exaggeration to say either the fin crisis or GWOT had a big effect on China's rise which is really the main reason the world won't be unipolar, the EU has become less of a credible power poll if anything in recent years, the temporary stabilization of Russia's decline also much less a factor than China.

And everything affects everything else to some degree but China's rise, GWOT US policies and 2008 crisis are relatively unrelated IMO as things go. From perspective of countries near the center of the Islamist militancy problem and also aligned with China maybe that looks different but that's a tiny portion of the world in economic terms. China is a big deal in all terms, the intersection of its rise with GWOT and 2008 crisis not much. But it goes to show another of my earlier points: people will have their own takes in 10 yrs on COVID also, and while they may not be entirely unreasonable from certain perspectives, I'll probably also find some of those to be exaggerated more broadly.

Again I generally tend toward the low side on 'change our lives forever' for COVID. But your argument I think has run the risk in some statements of devolving to just 'human nature won't change because of this'. And of course it won't until or unless biotechnology makes it change and that will have nothing directly to do with COVID.

Back to world economy, yeah the 1930's had a big lasting effect. It's pretty theoretical now, but was very real for quite awhile after. The run up in world debt due to COVID could have a very significant effect in the following decade or few, and on a potentially much different level than 'lots of malls closed' or some other sector based thing which really doesn't amount to much in the big picture beyond the short term (people get different jobs, capital is deployed to different places, some industry is always becoming less/more important, or entirely obsolete). But it won't be heavily covered by general media (for no nefarious purpose, just too ambiguous), and the great majority of ordinary people's economic opinions are just political. Few people are actually interested in what effect that debt load will have separate from electoral politics, which is one reason debate tends to come back to one country...and its politics, but this won't be a one country thing.

Last edited by Corry El; 05-05-2020 at 08:55 AM.
  #68  
Old 05-05-2020, 08:58 AM
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The financial crisis had no effect at all on how people behave day to day. The theory that it helped China become more powerful is interesting but has no effect on the life of the average American. That's what the OP was asking.

The GWOT made it a bit more inconvenient to board an airplane.
And, I can see thereís an argument to be made that the GWOT caused more immigration into Western Europe, helping to flame tensions and aid the right. How much is directly the result of the GWOT is definitely up for debate.
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  #69  
Old 05-05-2020, 09:05 AM
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Effects are going to be odd. The OP asked about the USA, which is going to be affected differently to most other countries, because it isn't like most other countries.

In terms of how upheaval affects people, I would suggest that there is a simple rule. People will go back to doing things they enjoy and miss, and will have learnt how they don't need to do many things that they didn't enjoy, and realise they don't actually need to do, so won't.

Businesses that had the mark of death on them will have an accelerated demise. No doubt, bricks and mortar sales will take a mortal hit in many areas. Those retailers that have managed to build a strong on-line presence will be OK. Those that have let Amazon eat their lunch are toast.

Work practices that have successfully changed to an enforced work from home pattern will find it hard to undo expectations. And those expectations will come from both sides. Workers and employers may accelerate the model. Expensive office space may not recover if there really isn't the need for lots of it. So technology based work may be irrevocably changed. Others will not notice any difference.

Politics is always in flux. Germany might be showing the Northern Hemisphere how it is done, down here in the South ,New Zealand rules the waves. Politicians have extraordinary opportunities right now. Some are squandering them. Some are making hay. I doubt there will be any sort of universal change in the political landscape. If someone in power clearly screws up, they will pay a penalty, and their associated political colour will wear the taint. Doesn't matter if you are red or blue or whatever. (And in the rest of the world, those colours are reversed. Which makes the US even more difficult to understand.)

So, things that will persist? What is it that you have discovered you enjoy? What don't you miss doing?

Has staying home for week made a lasting change to the expectations of housekeeping duties? Or has the modern two income household already put paid to that? There are no Rosie Riveters this time. Compared to the social upheaval the West saw after each world war, this is trivial.

Will people get upset as the skies turn brown again? Probably, but as always, if their personal comfort is derived from actions that pollute, little will change.

Possibly the biggest question will be about economic recovery. Some countries will recover very quickly. Some will take a lot longer. There is evidence that those countries that shut-down harder and earlier will recover quicker. Then there is the question about government support during the shut-downs. Here countries differ significantly. I don't know how well the US businesses are weathering the storm. Or how well people are. Here in Oz the strugglers are mostly doing OK. The government significantly increased benefits, and acted to ensure that nobody was going to starve or lose their house. Overall they have done OK at this. An interesting question is going to be how easy it is for them to unwind this level of support. Expectations may be hard to change. Also, it isn't impossible that the economics of much higher levels of social benefit might actually make sense. That is a big unknown.

The US may come out of this a step behind the rest of the developed world due to poorer management of the economy. This may be permanent setback. Slower recover of businesses and slower recovery of confidence. Places that have kept the money moving by explicit government intervention may recover very quickly. At least that is what we are hoping. The notion of using policy developed by career professionals in the field, rather than by political religion, may make big strides in those constituencies where it has been used.

Last edited by Francis Vaughan; 05-05-2020 at 09:10 AM.
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Old 05-05-2020, 09:57 AM
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The biggest impact is that no other nation is going to look to the US for solutions. We’ve gone from the nation that landed on the moon in the 20th century, to the nation that’s a warning to others in the 21st.
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Old 05-05-2020, 10:30 AM
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The biggest impact is that no other nation is going to look to the US for solutions. Weíve gone from the nation that landed on the moon in the 20th century, to the nation thatís a warning to others in the 21st.
Umm, thatís a bit drastic. Kinda like then old patent office quote from 1889 about every thing that can be invented has been invented.
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Old 05-05-2020, 10:41 AM
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What the hell are you talking about? What about the 99.99% of meetings that aren't at resorts?
Exactly. I've been on business trips to Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Albuquerque, Richardson (TX), and Waco (TX). None of the meetings were in any way at resorts.
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Old 05-05-2020, 11:02 AM
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Well, if this is ever "over-over" (successful vaccine or herd immunity) I honestly think that almost everything will go back to "normal" as if we hadn't learned a damn thing. Can you name a bunch of things that permanently changed when the Spanish Flu? I can't, and they weren't a bunch dummies that didn't know shit about diseases.

Some companies that didn't allow people to work from home but now are, may continue doing that. We were trending that way anyway. Some won't. Fact is a lot of employers like playing overseer and neck-breathe and that's best done in person.

I don't see people wearing masks in perpetuity. Americans are too vain for that, and uh, FREEDOM!

Sporting events, concerts, etc, will come back in full glory.

Restaurants, barbershops, etc. will all go back to normal.

Malls that were gonna go under anyway, will go under sooner. I can tell you for a fact the mall near me isn't going away anytime soon. Sales-tax free Delaware won't allow for anything else.

My biggest hope for all this is that we ACTUALLY have a PPE, ventilator, and other stockpiles fully stocked, forever, for another event like this. I think that ALL life-or-death products and should be made at home from now on. And that we convert hospitals to be able to quickly ramp up for another such events.

Last edited by Ashtura; 05-05-2020 at 11:05 AM.
  #74  
Old 05-05-2020, 11:19 AM
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Umm, thatís a bit drastic. Kinda like then old patent office quote from 1889 about every thing that can be invented has been invented.
No, it's accurate. You don't live in the country that sent men to the moon, that country no longer exists. You live in the country that watches Honey Boo Boo and elects people like Trump and McConnell and Cruz.
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  #75  
Old 05-05-2020, 12:05 PM
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No, it's accurate. You don't live in the country that sent men to the moon, that country no longer exists. You live in the country that watches Honey Boo Boo and elects people like Trump and McConnell and Cruz.
People were watching Green Acres in 1969, Spiro Agnew was VP and Claude Kirk was governor of Florida. I think weíll be fine.
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Old 05-05-2020, 12:48 PM
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... climate change is real but it's too devastating to do something about at this current point in time...
Explain that one to your grandkids.
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Old 05-05-2020, 12:52 PM
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Two things:

1 - Everything will be MUCH more expensive.

2 - Many many people have been triggered to hoarding.


~VOW
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:18 PM
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Canadians and Americans have already had a certain amount of personal space (I remember my son talked about how close people would stand in line in Germany, he liked the country but that really bothered him), anyway I suspect personal space will in fact be longer.
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Old 05-05-2020, 02:22 PM
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Originally Posted by dalej42 View Post
People were watching Green Acres in 1969, Spiro Agnew was VP and Claude Kirk was governor of Florida. I think weíll be fine.
60000 dead in a month and a government that is stealing medical supplies to the point that states have to sneak them in is not 'fine'. A political party that exists solely to siphon money into its owners' pockets being allowed to do whatever it pleases to the gross detriment of the society it's supposed to be governing is not 'fine'. You're not fine, you're coasting.
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Old 05-05-2020, 02:23 PM
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I don't know why otherwise intelligent posters like RickJay think that things will "not change". Lets just look at the major events of this century thus far, the War on Terror and the Financial crises.
Each of these had profound effects. Taken together they prematurely ended the United States unipolar moment and led to the rise of China. The Financial Crises led to the rise of the right and left-wing ideologies in most of the Western world.

This pandemic is by far the most important event of the century thus far. It will have long-lasting consequences.
Sure there will be changes- but nothing earthshaking.

Hand sanitizer stations in large stores and mall. Meh.

Other than that- Already dying malls will die faster. Teleconferencing and working at home will increase the rate they already were. Malls that survive will have to have entertainment and nice restaurants, not just a food court. You will go to the mall to have a nice lunch- and shop.

Changes already occurring will just occur faster.
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Old 05-05-2020, 02:45 PM
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Changes already occurring will just occur faster.
Sure, but even then, accelerating changes compared to those changes happening organically over time will likely lead to different ways those changes are felt in society.

Increasing teleworking may have been going on, but it was happening slowly (the vast majority of employees still go to an office) and infrastructure changes were also moving slowly to accommodate that.

I actually don't know if teleworking was going to be something that the majority of workers would be doing in the future (more of a significant minority, but most would still go into the office - in fact a few months ago, my office which had a policy that you could telework 4 days a week if your manager was ok with it, put it a 2x a week limit - because it was deemed important to have people in the office, rather than calling in, for meetings). Now, I think it may be something that is far more adopted. And that does have impact for how our society looks I think.

Now, what those changes will be, I have no idea. But I do think it's a different course than prior to pandemic.
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Old 05-05-2020, 02:59 PM
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I almost forgot. One of the more interesting things I've participated in (workwise) during lockdown has been a virtual deposition. We've always been told that in person depositions are essential to do our jobs - with us and the court reporter in the room. Well the virtual deposition worked just fine. We were told this is a 'only because of pandemic' sort of thing, but I can easily see that as an option moving forward.

So some of the changes may be due to people forced to doing things virtually and realizing hey, that wasn't so bad.
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Old 05-05-2020, 05:06 PM
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I expect hand sanitizer will be standard stuff in offices and homes. And probably places like cinemas. The same way as hospitals have it everywhere, with dispensers nailed to the walls. As you enter a place, etiquette will demand that you clean your hands with it.
Has been. Our offices have had hand sanitizer available for years.
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Old 05-05-2020, 05:13 PM
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I almost forgot. One of the more interesting things I've participated in (workwise) during lockdown has been a virtual deposition. We've always been told that in person depositions are essential to do our jobs - with us and the court reporter in the room. Well the virtual deposition worked just fine. We were told this is a 'only because of pandemic' sort of thing, but I can easily see that as an option moving forward.

So some of the changes may be due to people forced to doing things virtually and realizing hey, that wasn't so bad.
We've been doing video conference depositions for years, but the thought was always the "important" ones should be done in person. I hope I never have to fly across country for a two hour deposition again. It's working fine this way.

Also, I've had three zoom meditations in the past few weeks. It's as good as in person.
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Old 05-05-2020, 06:09 PM
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Sure, but even then, accelerating changes compared to those changes happening organically over time will likely lead to different ways those changes are felt in society.

Increasing teleworking may have been going on, but it was happening slowly (the vast majority of employees still go to an office)
The vast majority of employees will still go to work, because they don't have an "office." Teleconferencing isn't going to send more than a very small portion of employees home.

It seems to be repeatedly forgotten by people who are lucky enough to have office jobs than most people don't, and many who have them don't have the sort you can do from home.
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  #86  
Old 05-05-2020, 09:12 PM
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Umm, thatís a bit drastic. Kinda like then old patent office quote from 1889 about every thing that can be invented has been invented.
No, itís nothing like that.
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Old 05-06-2020, 11:27 AM
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Canadians and Americans have already had a certain amount of personal space (I remember my son talked about how close people would stand in line in Germany, he liked the country but that really bothered him), anyway I suspect personal space will in fact be longer.
"Canadians and Americans" don't belong in a single group in this respect. Americans are glommy and can't stop touching one another and, when I'm in range, me. Canadians only touch each other to mate.
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Old 05-06-2020, 12:02 PM
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Americans are glommy and can't stop touching one another and, when I'm in range, me.
Sorry for your bad experience when you were last in the U.S. But, I don't believe it is representative of Americans in general. You should travel more.
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Old 05-06-2020, 12:27 PM
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Has been. Our offices have had hand sanitizer available for years.
Mine too I think there was a push to install them after SARS or H1N1 outbreak.
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Old 05-06-2020, 01:21 PM
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Well, if this is ever "over-over" (successful vaccine or herd immunity) I honestly think that almost everything will go back to "normal" as if we hadn't learned a damn thing.
I think it's pessimistic to think that going back to normal indicates that we learned nothing. I think it mostly indicates that the measures we're taking right now aren't generally necessary.

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I don't see people wearing masks in perpetuity. Americans are too vain for that, and uh, FREEDOM!
Given how difficult it has been to get them to wear masks during a pandemic this seems like a pretty safe assumption.

I am moderately hopeful that the people who are wearing masks now will do so the next time there's the threat of a pandemic. Of course, it'll be easier to get that to happen if WHO and the CDC don't spend the critical early months telling people not to wear masks.

I also think you might see a change of norms in public transit in dense urban areas and people will continue wearing masks there. They're a lot more generally useful there, and there's a lot less "COUGHING ON PEOPLE IS A CIVIL RIGHT" sentiment in those cities. I don't think this is likely, but it's not crazy if it happens.

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My biggest hope for all this is that we ACTUALLY have a PPE, ventilator, and other stockpiles fully stocked, forever, for another event like this. I think that ALL life-or-death products and should be made at home from now on. And that we convert hospitals to be able to quickly ramp up for another such events.
I think this will probably happen, too. We're pretty good at preparing for the last disaster. Of course, it's not clear that ventilators will be what's needed for the next pandemic, but PPE stockpiles and the ability to ramp production and hospital capacity up will be generally useful.
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Old 05-06-2020, 02:38 PM
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I think this will probably happen, too. We're pretty good at preparing for the last disaster. Of course, it's not clear that ventilators will be what's needed for the next pandemic, but PPE stockpiles and the ability to ramp production and hospital capacity up will be generally useful.
One of the biggest needs aside from PPE are various therapeutic and anesthetic drugs, and hospitals current try to manage these in a 'just-in-time' inventory with a small reserve because they take a lot of space, have fairly rigorous controls, and many have a limited shelf life, but having a 'strategic pharmaceutical stockpile' that can be rapidly shipped to wherever it is needed is crucial to an effective response regardless of what the next epidemic pathogen is.

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Old 05-06-2020, 03:19 PM
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Assuming enough GOP pols contract COVID, universal basic healthcare in USA may result. But hold not thy breath.
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Old 05-06-2020, 03:47 PM
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I think a lot of people are underestimating the impact of this event. It happened in the context of our national already being on incredibly shaky ground. Or government has been dismantled and our institutions are in collapse. There’s not going to be some kind of return to normal, the past few years are The new normal, America will lurch from crisis to crisis, being diminished every time; pandemic season will bleed into hurricane season, which will bleed in to some other horror. Our lack of resilience and inability to respond are the only thing we can count on.
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Old 05-06-2020, 03:49 PM
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Sorry for your bad experience when you were last in the U.S. But, I don't believe it is representative of Americans in general. You should travel more.
It wasn't a bad experience. And yes, I should. I'd been planning to when all this happened. Not necessarily to the US, though.
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Old 05-07-2020, 02:24 AM
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Agreed. I think people are way, way overestimating the effect this will have on society in general. (For comparison purposes, we've heard a lot about the Spanish flu of late, but there are two pandemics within living memory that killed 1,000,000+ people worldwide, in 1957-58 and 1968-69. And ... nobody remembers them. I asked my parents, who are old enough to remember, and they had no idea these events even occurred. There was, I have heard, a rather well-attended music festival in 1969, a matter of months after 100,000 people in the US died of flu.)
Did most of the developed world's economies shut down in either of those years? Did unemployment reach levels unseen since the Great Depression? Do you really think those are good analogies to 2020? Interesting.
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Old 05-07-2020, 12:03 PM
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I dunno about North or South America but in the States - the permanent changes will be:

OnLine Learning - school lessons

Homeschooling - that's where the guardians decide the lessons (probably why the devos family planted all those anti-quarantine facebook pages)

Less school shootings

Less business flight travel

Working from home

Have methods in place for prisons since the occupants aren't able to social distance

Gen Y and Z won't buy cars or houses. They'll accumulate less stuff and be part of the Van Movement.

Less car travel

Maybe the cost of concerts will come down and Ticketmaster can go away. Ditto, sports. Nonetheless, handshakes will resume, folks will still think antibacterial sanitizers kill a virus and there won't be universal health care.
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Old 05-07-2020, 12:12 PM
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Maybe the cost of concerts will come down and Ticketmaster can go away. Ditto, sports. Nonetheless, handshakes will resume, folks will still think antibacterial sanitizers kill a virus and there won't be universal health care.
Hand sanitizer kills viruses. All the reputable hand sanitizer a normal person can buy is around 70% alcohol. It kills bacteria and viruses.
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Old 05-07-2020, 12:16 PM
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Umm, thatís a bit drastic. Kinda like then old patent office quote from 1889 about every thing that can be invented has been invented.
The mythical patent office quote, by the way.
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Old 05-07-2020, 12:21 PM
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Hand sanitizer kills viruses. All the reputable hand sanitizer a normal person can buy is around 70% alcohol. It kills bacteria and viruses.
Nope, my job shipped my office cases of hand sanitizer last month. It very clearly said "alcohol free" ( which no one noticed until I was opening boxes) - had Benzalkonium chloride instead. Probably works for 99.9% of bacteria- but not viruses.


And reputable brands make non-alcohol sanitizer

Last edited by doreen; 05-07-2020 at 12:23 PM.
  #100  
Old 05-07-2020, 01:09 PM
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I hope a lot changes politically / socioeconomically, but as far as day-to-day behavior, I don't think much will racially change. I think the plastic dividers at stores, businesses and post offices will stay. Possibly more public events (lectures, etc.) will be available virtually. But I think there will still be crowds and handshaking.
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