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  #151  
Old 05-14-2020, 12:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Fretful Porpentine View Post
And ... nobody remembers them. I asked my parents, who are old enough to remember, and they had no idea these events even occurred. There was, I have heard, a rather well-attended music festival in 1969, a matter of months after 100,000 people in the US died of flu.)
I had a Facebook friend post the same Hong Kong Flu/ Woodstock thing and I felt compelled to do the math for her, which I'll repeat here: the Hong Kong flu killed 185 people a day between 1968 and 1970. We're losing 2000/day now.

I also agree with those who expect slight acceleration of trends already in place. We'll find that it's a lot easier to work from home than we thought, and we'll see more of it. Less business travel, more teleconferences. Public transit will undergo routine disinfection. More movies may go direct to streaming services.

But sporting events are far from dead -- we'll probably see big football crowds this fall.

Last edited by jsc1953; 05-14-2020 at 12:07 PM.
  #152  
Old 05-14-2020, 03:27 PM
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Well, my point wasn't that the virulence of these diseases are necessarily comparable, but rather, that pandemic respiratory viruses do not, historically, result in major and permanent social changes, and that they tend not to loom all that large in collective memory after the fact. (This is basically true of Spanish flu as well, although most people have at least heard of that one.)
  #153  
Old 05-14-2020, 03:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Fretful Porpentine View Post
Well, my point wasn't that the virulence of these diseases are necessarily comparable, but rather, that pandemic respiratory viruses do not, historically, result in major and permanent social changes, and that they tend not to loom all that large in collective memory after the fact. (This is basically true of Spanish flu as well, although most people have at least heard of that one.)
I think the long-term impact is directly connected to the virulence and lethality.

The flu pandemics of the past (mostly) had < 0.1% infection fatality rate. That makes for reasonably large numbers when it sweeps through the population, but the overall continuing perceived risk is small.

COVID appears to have an IFR around 1%, which is an order of magnitude worse than the flu, and as a result its generated a much stronger response, but probably still not scary enough for people to think "I need to change my whole way of life long-term" in the aftermath.

But imagine a viral respiratory pandemic as easily transmittable as COVID with 10% or 20% IFR. You'd see societal upheaval, and the crowded sporting arena probably would not reappear for a generation.
  #154  
Old 05-16-2020, 08:18 AM
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The stupid open office design done by cheapskate places may go away. That assumes the business cares about health of employees which they may not.
  #155  
Old 05-16-2020, 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted by iamthewalrus(:3= View Post
I think the long-term impact is directly connected to the virulence and lethality.

The flu pandemics of the past (mostly) had < 0.1% infection fatality rate. That makes for reasonably large numbers when it sweeps through the population, but the overall continuing perceived risk is small.

COVID appears to have an IFR around 1%, which is an order of magnitude worse than the flu, and as a result its generated a much stronger response, but probably still not scary enough for people to think "I need to change my whole way of life long-term" in the aftermath.

But imagine a viral respiratory pandemic as easily transmittable as COVID with 10% or 20% IFR. You'd see societal upheaval, and the crowded sporting arena probably would not reappear for a generation.
The Spanish flu's IFR was at least as high as COVID if not higher. Not really remembered, not really impactful.
  #156  
Old 05-16-2020, 10:24 AM
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The stupid open office design done by cheapskate places may go away. That assumes the business cares about health of employees which they may not.
If a lot of employees keep working from home, there will be plenty of floor space to install cubicles.
  #157  
Old 05-16-2020, 10:24 PM
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This pandemic will hopefully sound the death knell for the anti-vaxxer movement.
I saw a guy on Twitter today who said:

1. Smallpox never disappeared because smallpox is not a thing. It's just "bad chicken pox," and we still have chicken pox. Monkey pox is also the same disease. Since no one could tell him who had proven the smallpox virus causes smallpox, he must be right.

2. Polio also isn't really a thing because some people are still paralyzed.

3. Of course vaccines cause autism and only people who hate Moms think otherwise.

COVID-19 will INCREASE antivaxxers. Big time. It's already a very common belief that it's a hoax put forward by Bill Gates and other liberals to force vaccines on people so microchips can be implanted in them.
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  #158  
Old 05-19-2020, 12:25 PM
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The Spanish flu's IFR was at least as high as COVID if not higher. Not really remembered, not really impactful.
True. I think that's still consistent with my claims.

An IFR of a few percent isn't enough to change long-term behavior. If it had an IFR of 10-20%, it would be a bigger deal.

I also really only see long-term changes lasting a generation. Adults don't change their behavior because Grandma tells them about all the people who died of whatever when she was younger. People who lived through a disaster change their behavior.
  #159  
Old 05-20-2020, 09:22 AM
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I also really only see long-term changes lasting a generation. Adults don't change their behavior because Grandma tells them about all the people who died of whatever when she was younger. People who lived through a disaster change their behavior.


Adults may not change, but the kids they raise won't have to change, they'll just be raised that way to begin with.

Who taught you to shake hands when you first meet someone? Your parents, most likely. If you don't pass that along, or even better, actively tell your kids to do something else, like bow or something, they'll never develop that habit.

Same with masks. If kids are told that of course you wear a mask in public if you're sick, to them, that will just be normal. Same with any of the other behavior changes. If we change now because we see that it is needed, and then teach our kids to do these things because that's just the way it's done, the kids will never know anything different.

So, which changes will stick? Those that the parents of today decide will stick.
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  #160  
Old 05-26-2020, 03:36 AM
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In Australia, things that are unlikely to change back:

1) Tele-medicine. Tele-medicine was artificially restricted by all insurance agencies in Aus, because of fear of fraud. Restrictions were relaxed for COVID-19, and are unlikely to go back.

2) Digital signatures, video witnessing, e-conveyancing.

3) Video AGM's for listed companies.

These are all things that could have happened before, but they've happened now, and probably won't change back.
  #161  
Old 05-26-2020, 05:25 AM
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COVID-19 will INCREASE antivaxxers. Big time. It's already a very common belief that it's a hoax put forward by Bill Gates and other liberals to force vaccines on people so microchips can be implanted in them.
Have any of these geniuses been able to explain (a) how you liquify a microchip so it can be injected through a needle, and (b) what Bill Gates gets out it? Maybe it's a scheme to get rich!

Back to the serious topic, salad bars and buffet bars in general may be in jeopardy for quite some time. My first thought based on immediate experience is the shutdown of all such self-serve bars at grocery stores, but there are entire restaurants premised on the concept, and some of them have announced permanent closures. Personally I was never that big a fan of most of those kinds of restaurants, but salad bars in grocery stores used to be my main source of convenient healthy rabbit-food type salads, and I miss them.

A new branch of a grocery store chain that opened near me recently made the decision to have most of the hot buffet (as well as the cold salad bar) completely self-serve, except for roasts that are carved to order by a server. It was a labor-saving decision that I bet they regret now as the entire self-serve hot and cold buffets are currently shut down.

Last edited by wolfpup; 05-26-2020 at 05:28 AM.
  #162  
Old 05-26-2020, 06:39 AM
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Courtship will take a hands-off approach.

Dancing boobies is the model to emulate. Folks looking for romance will wear blue-suede shoes and do a little dance in front of potential mates. Willing mates will reply with a seductive arm strut. At this point mutual consent forms will be electronically signed and the new merged couple will make an appointment for cybersex. In-vitro fertilization may follow.
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