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Old 05-17-2020, 02:08 PM
elfkin477 is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: NH
Posts: 23,158

Can any inferences about community spread be drawn from death clusters in congregate settings?


I've been wondering something for a couple of weeks... Here in New Hampshire 80% of the Covid-19 deaths have been of people in nursing homes. Despite the extended stay-at-home order, deaths keep occurring, but they also are consistently overwhelmingly of people who live in nursing homes; yesterday, for example, there were 12 deaths, 9 of nursing home residents.

Once this disease gets into nursing homes it's very difficult to eradicate, which to me suggests that even if people who don't have any interaction with nursing home patients or workers maintain social distancing measures perfectly, we're still going to see deaths...but I'm not a statistician by any means.

So, is it possible to draw any conclusions about how much community spread there still is in an area when most of the people who are dying are living in nursing homes, prisons, or other residential settings?

I wish that the state would offer better demographic information about the people who catch it but don't die, but all age-related info is cumulative only, so it's not possible to see if there are trends about who is currently being diagnosed with it. I know 55% of the cases have been in people over the age of 50, but not how old people who have been diagnosed in May are etc.
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