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#201
01-15-2019, 12:16 PM
 Guest Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: New England Posts: 13,826
Quote:
 Originally Posted by kenobi 65 Well, as a matter of fact...
That's a fair point, especially since google says the 2pt success rate in 2018 was a staggering 60%.

I'm more interested in the thought experiment where a PAT is 100% and a 2pt is exactly 50%.

The way I look at it is this:

1) I need another TD
2) I need one 2pt conversion, with little way to improve the odds on it
3) I need one PAT, with no way to improve the odds on it

No matter what we do, we need all three of the above things. Going for a 2pt first and missing cuts down on the chances of the TD by a substantial margin.

Since I can't really change the other two, I focus my decision on maximizing the chances of the TD.

Last edited by Ellis Dee; 01-15-2019 at 12:16 PM.
#202
01-15-2019, 05:28 PM
 Guest Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 1,995
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Ellis Dee No matter what we do, we need all three of the above things. Going for a 2pt first and missing cuts down on the chances of the TD by a substantial margin. Since I can't really change the other two, I focus my decision on maximizing the chances of the TD.
But if you go for the 2pt on the second time and miss, you just lose. Going for the 2pt first and making it means you know you can get the maximum chance of the TD.

Last edited by Taber; 01-15-2019 at 05:29 PM.
#203
01-15-2019, 07:47 PM
 Guest Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: New England Posts: 13,826
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Taber Going for the 2pt first and making it means you know you can get the maximum chance of the TD.
...half the time. The other half of the time you missed the 2pt and essentially lost the game right there and then.

Any way you slice, if you miss the 2pt conversion you need a miracle to win. Strategizing a way to maximize the miracle odds is a fool's errand, and is really only applicable to videogames. When you have real people (athletes and coaches) involved, it's not a sound strategy to put all your eggs in one 50% play before you absolutely have to.

(However, in the real world, with the success rate of 60%, I can see selling that to the team, ownership, and fans.)

Last edited by Ellis Dee; 01-15-2019 at 07:49 PM.
#204
01-15-2019, 08:25 PM
 Guest Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 1,995
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Ellis Dee ...half the time. The other half of the time you missed the 2pt and essentially lost the game right there and then.
It is also only half the time if you save the 2 pointer for later, you just don't know it yet.

I'm just saying that it is irrelevant to say that going for 2 later maximizes your chance to get the TD, because 50% of the time, you know for sure you should maximize the TD chance even if you went for the 2 points early, and the other 50% of the time, maximizing the TD chance just means you lose by 2 instead of 9.

Last edited by Taber; 01-15-2019 at 08:26 PM.
#205
01-20-2019, 10:14 AM
 Guest Join Date: Nov 2017 Location: Kansas Posts: 1,264
Who you got today?

I looked on vegasinsider.com this morning and was surprised to see the lines on today's games are exactly the same:

Saints are favored by 3 1/2 over the Rams. Over/under is 56 1/2.
Chiefs are favored by 3 1/2 over the Pats. Over/under is 56 1/2.

I think both underdogs win the games. And I think that both games will be under 56 1/2 points.

I hope I'm wrong on all counts.
#206
01-20-2019, 12:05 PM
 Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Land of Cheese Coneys Posts: 17,816
I would very much like to see a SB where Brady takes on Brees, I'm pretty sure they've not played in the big game before.

However, I really like watching Mahomes play too, and am generally rooting for KC because they deserve a SB berth and their fans are really cool.

I guess ultimately all you can ask for are good games. We should see plenty of offense.
#207
01-20-2019, 01:55 PM
 Guest Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Where the Wild Things Are Posts: 14,241
Is anyone else sick and tired of the utter bullsit of the Pat's trying to play up their underdog status and how disrespected they are?
#208
01-20-2019, 02:27 PM
 Guest Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 25,098
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Hamlet Is anyone else sick and tired of the utter bullsit of the Pat's trying to play up their underdog status and how disrespected they are?
Yes, although that doesn't worry me half as much as those fucking "real person" Chevy commercials. I'd like to bludgeon everyone involved in them to death with a tire iron, reserving special treatment for the smug bearded asshole in the grey jacket.
#209
01-20-2019, 02:47 PM
 Member Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Arlington, VA Posts: 32,566
Saints utterly dominating the Rams right now. Really look like they're in their heads.
#210
01-20-2019, 03:03 PM
 Guest Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Where the Wild Things Are Posts: 14,241
I did not foresee Todd Gurley being the main cause of the Rams losing so far. He drops one pass, which goes for a interception and another Saints score. Then drops another in the red zone that should have gone for a huge first down.
#211
01-20-2019, 03:33 PM
 Guest Join Date: Nov 2017 Location: Kansas Posts: 1,264
Rams fake punt and their stellar defense have made a game of it at halftime.
#212
01-20-2019, 03:41 PM
 Guest Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 1,552
Is it just me, or is someone in the crowd blowing a whistle while the Rams are on offense?
#213
01-20-2019, 03:42 PM
 Corellian Nerfherder Join Date: May 2000 Location: Brookfield, IL Posts: 14,021
Quote:
 Originally Posted by FlikTheBlue Is it just me, or is someone in the crowd blowing a whistle while the Rams are on offense?
It definitely sounded that way to me, on at least one play.
#214
01-20-2019, 03:53 PM
 Guest Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 1,552
Quote:
 Originally Posted by kenobi 65 It definitely sounded that way to me, on at least one play.
Confirmed by Troy Aikman.
#215
01-20-2019, 04:13 PM
 Guest Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Where the Wild Things Are Posts: 14,241
Fun game. Both teams rising to the occasion, neither team hitting or killing themselves.
#216
01-20-2019, 04:38 PM
 Guest Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: North of the River Posts: 3,404
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Hamlet Is anyone else sick and tired of the utter bullsit of the Pat's trying to play up their underdog status and how disrespected they are?
Speaking as a Chief's fan, they are actually (and I think for the first time in a long time?) underdogs. Disrespected, not so much, although I guess Vegas having the temerity to install them as underdogs after seven years is a bit disrespectful.

And think of those 11-month old Pat's fans who've never seen their team win an AFC championship? don't remember where I saw that, but I liked it
#217
01-20-2019, 04:59 PM
 Guest Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Where the Wild Things Are Posts: 14,241
Horrible no call. Shame. Saints better win or that will be the defining moment.

Last edited by Hamlet; 01-20-2019 at 05:00 PM.
#218
01-20-2019, 05:00 PM
 Charter Member Join Date: May 2000 Location: SW Side, Chicago Posts: 46,523
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Hamlet Horrible no call. Shame. Saints better win or that will be the defining moment.
Yeah, what the hell was that horseshit?
#219
01-20-2019, 05:02 PM
 Guest Join Date: Jun 2002 Posts: 7,107
That’s one of the most disgraceful no-calls I’ve ever seen in my life.
#220
01-20-2019, 05:08 PM
 Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: The Dueling Grounds Posts: 11,622
If you ever were looking for evidence the NFL is rigged...
#221
01-20-2019, 05:10 PM
 Guest Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Where the Wild Things Are Posts: 14,241
Quote:
 Originally Posted by DCnDC If you ever were looking for evidence the NFL is rigged...
That comment is as pathetically idiotic as the non-call.
#222
01-20-2019, 05:14 PM
 Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: The Dueling Grounds Posts: 11,622
#223
01-20-2019, 05:16 PM
 Member Join Date: Jul 1999 Location: Indian Land, S Carolina Posts: 14,151
There we go, the make-up call for the no call from before. According to the script.

(For what it's worth, it really was PI)

Last edited by DSYoungEsq; 01-20-2019 at 05:16 PM.
#224
01-20-2019, 05:17 PM
 Guest Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Where the Wild Things Are Posts: 14,241
Nevermind

Last edited by Hamlet; 01-20-2019 at 05:18 PM.
#225
01-20-2019, 05:24 PM
 Guest Join Date: Jun 2002 Posts: 7,107
There’s no justice in this world.
#226
01-20-2019, 05:24 PM
 Guest Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Slough Posts: 1,098
Dude has leg.
#227
01-20-2019, 05:24 PM
 Member Join Date: Jul 1999 Location: Indian Land, S Carolina Posts: 14,151
Well, that no-call ends up mattering. That kick would have been good from almost 10 yards further.
#228
01-20-2019, 05:25 PM
 Guest Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Slough Posts: 1,098
PI is the least consistently officiated penalty. (Holding is close though.)

Last edited by WernhamHogg; 01-20-2019 at 05:26 PM.
#229
01-20-2019, 05:26 PM
 Guest Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Port Orchard, WA Posts: 11,307
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Rysto There’s no justice in this world.
Your statement is contradicted by the fact that the f*cking Saints lost.
__________________
°o°

Last edited by garygnu; 01-20-2019 at 05:26 PM.
#230
01-20-2019, 05:27 PM
 Charter Member Join Date: Jan 2000 Location: NoWA Posts: 60,577
THE SAINTS WERE ROBBED!
#231
01-20-2019, 05:35 PM
 Guest Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Canada Posts: 2,040
Well now I really hope the Chiefs win. I don’t want to have to cheer for the Patriots in the super bowl.
#232
01-20-2019, 05:36 PM
 Guest Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Slough Posts: 1,098
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Johnny L.A. THE SAINTS WERE ROBBED!
This sentiment is surprising coming from one with your username...
#233
01-20-2019, 05:57 PM
 Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: The Dueling Grounds Posts: 11,622
I'm impressed Jim Nantz and Tony Romo can speak so clearly with Tom Brady's balls in their mouths.
#234
01-20-2019, 05:58 PM
 Member Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,948
Quote:
 Originally Posted by WernhamHogg This sentiment is surprising coming from one with your username...
I assume the LA is Louisiana.
#235
01-20-2019, 06:04 PM
 Guest Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Slough Posts: 1,098
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Atamasama I assume the LA is Louisiana.
It would be written LA, not L.A.
#236
01-20-2019, 06:09 PM
 Guest Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 1,552
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Rysto That’s one of the most disgraceful no-calls I’ve ever seen in my life.
IIRC the officiating crew for this game reportedly was the crew that called the fewest penalties all season, so that might help explain the no calls this game.
#237
01-20-2019, 06:12 PM
 Member Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 2,344
Eh, the pass interference at the start of overtime show's they're willing to call it. The one they missed (just saw the replay) is egregious, to say the least.
#238
01-20-2019, 06:13 PM
 Charter Member Join Date: May 2000 Location: SW Side, Chicago Posts: 46,523
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Atamasama I assume the LA is Louisiana.
Pretty sure he's from California. It was just that transparently a shit call that even someone from L.A. has to admit it. I have no dog in the fight, and that kick to end the game was awesome, and Sean McVay's story is cool and all that, but, wow, Saints got screwed on that no call.
#239
01-20-2019, 07:09 PM
 Member Join Date: Jul 1999 Location: Indian Land, S Carolina Posts: 14,151
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Chisquirrel Eh, the pass interference at the start of overtime show's they're willing to call it. The one they missed (just saw the replay) is egregious, to say the least.
Oh, come on. I mean, the DB only ran into the receiver, without looking at the ball, while the ball hit him in the back of his helmet after the contact. A really good receiver would have shrugged it off and made a helmet catch.
#240
01-20-2019, 07:46 PM
 Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: The Dueling Grounds Posts: 11,622
Had the DB done his job properly he'd have had an easy INT, possibly even a pick six.
#241
01-20-2019, 07:58 PM
 Guest Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Where the Wild Things Are Posts: 14,241
Another fun, well played, and interesting game. Here's hoping the refs dont fuck this game up.
#242
01-20-2019, 08:08 PM
 Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: The Dueling Grounds Posts: 11,622
As much as I'd like it to be KC ball, and it still might be, but I'm pretty sure that didn't touch him.
#243
01-20-2019, 08:09 PM
 2012 SDMB NFL Salary Cap Champ Charter Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Albuquerque, NM Posts: 11,686
This is not anywhere near the egregious no-call in the Saints game. It looked like it was a live ball to me watching it live. I think the overturn is probably the right call, but I think the original call should have stood because it didn't seem conclusive enough.
#244
01-20-2019, 08:12 PM
 Charter Member Join Date: May 2000 Location: SW Side, Chicago Posts: 46,523
Quote:
 Originally Posted by DCnDC As much as I'd like it to be KC ball, and it still might be, but I'm pretty sure that didn't touch him.
I swear I want to punch the commentators. I loathe the Pats with every bone in my being, but it's not even that close. The ball did not touch him. At its closest point it's still maybe two inches from any part of his hand. At any rate, doesn't matter now with the interception, so go Chiefs!

Last edited by pulykamell; 01-20-2019 at 08:13 PM.
#245
01-20-2019, 08:15 PM
 Guest Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Where the Wild Things Are Posts: 14,241
Great play call by the Chiefs. And I love that it came off a int.
#246
01-20-2019, 08:20 PM
 2012 SDMB NFL Salary Cap Champ Charter Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Albuquerque, NM Posts: 11,686
Now there's the guaranteed BS call for Touching the Brady.
#247
01-20-2019, 08:20 PM
 Guest Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Where the Wild Things Are Posts: 14,241
Bullshit roughing call. God I hope the refs dont fuck this game up.
#248
01-20-2019, 08:22 PM
 Guest Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Where the Wild Things Are Posts: 14,241
God, these calls are pretty close. Except that roughing call. That was bullshit.
#249
01-20-2019, 08:40 PM
 Guest Join Date: Feb 2000 Location: Where the Wild Things Are Posts: 14,241
Exciting. Hate the non-call on a clear pick play though.
#250
01-20-2019, 08:44 PM
 Guest Join Date: Jun 2002 Posts: 7,107
The PI call to set up that play also seemed ticky tack to me.

Also, am I wrong, or was returning the ball out of the end zone and burning the two minute warning a mistake?

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