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  #51  
Old 02-15-2019, 05:43 PM
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Colin Kaepernick was reportedly approached about joining a team in the AAF but he wanted $20 million. If true, this guy is not serious about playing football. Not that he necessarily should have taken the $250k or whatever the AAF offered, but $20M is insane.

ETA: Tim Tebow was also approached but would rather focus on baseball.
Kaepernick just settled his collusion claim with the NFL. Terms are confidential of course, but reports are saying that he's getting $60 to $80 million.
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Old 02-15-2019, 06:21 PM
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Colin Kaepernick was reportedly approached about joining a team in the AAF but he wanted $20 million. If true, this guy is not serious about playing football. Not that he necessarily should have taken the $250k or whatever the AAF offered, but $20M is insane.
I believe thatís plausible but Iím also very wary of any report I read about Kaepernick thatís not totally verified (either positively or negatively). Heís such a polarizing political figure at the point that ďreportsĒ and ďrumorsĒ are likely embellished or even invented by people with an agenda. So I take this with a grain of salt.

That said, I recall when he tried out for the Seahawks (because I thought heíd be a great backup; his athletic running QB style would mesh well). But they ended up not reaching an agreement because both the team and him concluded he should be a starter somewhere. Which I took as code for saying he demanded starter money.
  #53  
Old 02-16-2019, 02:53 PM
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Kaepernick just settled his collusion claim with the NFL. Terms are confidential of course, but reports are saying that he's getting $60 to $80 million.
Wow. Good for him then. It seemed pretty obvious to me that teams were blackballing Colin.
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Old 02-16-2019, 07:28 PM
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I’m watching Memphis and Arizona right now. My first chance to catch an AAF game. I like it, it feels a lot like the NFL but with much fewer (and shorter) breaks. And I recognize a lot of the players. It’s much better than I thought it would be.
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Old 02-18-2019, 11:31 AM
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Helluva comeback by my Apollos yesterday. I had to work this weekend so I only caught the fourth quarter, but the team definitely has resolve and will be a tough challenge for anyone in the league to match up with.

Take Aim Apollos!
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  #56  
Old 02-19-2019, 10:42 AM
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It seems that the AAF needed a $250 million bailout after its first week. Ouch.
  #57  
Old 02-19-2019, 11:06 AM
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As I'm sure you know, many of these came about organically, which I think is the key.

One example you omitted is the Chicago Cubs, who were named that somewhat derisively by a local paper and it stuck. The "Cubs" moniker being a criticism of the team's youth during a rebuilding process following a couple decades of massive success.
Sure, there are lots of examples like that. "Giants" came organically from them being called that as a nickname, as did "Dodgers." "Cardinals" and "Reds" were references to uniform color. Allegedly, the Pirates got that name when the American Association's Pittsburgh team accused them of being "piratical" for stealing a player from them. The Yankees (previously Highlanders) got their name from the press, who got it from who knows where.

It is perhaps instructive that names that teams stumbled onto accidentally are just as popular as ones carefully selected by marketeers.
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  #58  
Old 02-19-2019, 11:48 AM
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It seems that the AAF needed a $250 million bailout after its first week. Ouch.
Yeah, I saw that this morning -- that really doesn't sound good. It seems likely to me that they had a pretty good handle on what their costs were going to be, and the income they were going to get from TV / media were already established, so this suggests to me that overall attendance was substantially below their projections.

The infusion of cash from Dundon will probably keep them going for a while, but if the league isn't able to improve their income, I can't imagine that he (or other investors) will be willing to keep throwing money at it for long.
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Old 02-19-2019, 12:59 PM
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If they're going to lose a quarter billion every week, they won't finish even one season.
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Old 02-19-2019, 01:08 PM
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If they're going to lose a quarter billion every week, they won't finish even one season.
I suspect that they didn't lose a quarter-billion that week; while the article notes that they needed a cash infusion in order to make payroll, I would expect that the $250 million that they received from Dundon wasn't just to make that weekly payroll, but to keep the league solvent for long enough to (they hope) get their feet under them.

If I'm mistaken, then, yeah, I can't see them even making it through the season.
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Old 02-19-2019, 01:42 PM
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Grrr I was hoping this one would work out, but it doesn't look good.

The optimist in me says they always planned to lose a shitload of money and was banking (heh) on some investors coming in mid-season once they saw how the league looked/felt. That this was a planned effort all along. So I'm going to go with that for now.
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  #62  
Old 02-19-2019, 02:17 PM
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Even if it takes them a whole season to lose a quarter billion, it's still over (and there won't be an XFL2, either). Where is the increased revenue going to come from to cover that kind of outlay?
  #63  
Old 02-19-2019, 02:25 PM
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Correct me if I'm wrong (and I probably am), but don't most new businesses lose money in their first few years of existence?
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Old 02-19-2019, 02:28 PM
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Yeah now that I watched and enjoyed a game I want this league to work. I hope they don’t go bust the first year.
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Old 02-19-2019, 02:29 PM
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Yes, but they can survive that if they have, and execute, a business plan for building their revenue to a net positive cash flow before the lenders pull the plug. If this league has such a plan, or that one is even possible, that is not evident.

Last edited by ElvisL1ves; 02-19-2019 at 02:30 PM.
  #66  
Old 02-19-2019, 02:30 PM
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Correct me if I'm wrong (and I probably am), but don't most new businesses lose money in their first few years of existence?
It's not uncommon, no. And, the AAF seems to be being run by people who understand the business, so, I would have to imagine that they expected to not be turning a profit right away.

But, what the Post article, and the last-minute addition of a major investor, both suggest is that their initial cash flow wound up being *much* lower than they had planned.

Last edited by kenobi 65; 02-19-2019 at 02:31 PM.
  #67  
Old 02-19-2019, 07:35 PM
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I think their timing was terrible, starting right after everyone’s appetite for football has been quenched, you’ve had a December of college bowl games, NFL playoffs and college championship in January, Super Bowl in February and then now you want to start play in a minor league? Look, I get that there are some who love football above all but a lot of sports fans are ready for a break.

I watched some of the Australian baseball league once January rolled around, I don’t want to see more baseball right after the World Series.
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  #68  
Old 02-19-2019, 07:44 PM
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I think their timing was terrible, starting right after everyoneís appetite for football has been quenched, youíve had a December of college bowl games, NFL playoffs and college championship in January, Super Bowl in February and then now you want to start play in a minor league? Look, I get that there are some who love football above all but a lot of sports fans are ready for a break.

I watched some of the Australian baseball league once January rolled around, I donít want to see more baseball right after the World Series.
But when else would they have played? Since their intention is to be AAA NFL, they can't play during the season (that takes out fall and winter) they also can't play during training camp (that takes out the summer) the spring is their best bet.
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Old 02-19-2019, 08:02 PM
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But when else would they have played? Since their intention is to be AAA NFL, they can't play during the season (that takes out fall and winter)
Why wouldn't weeknights during football season work? When you want some, and it's a Tuesday or Wednesday, you're SOL until Thursday Night Football, then Friday HS games and Saturday NCAA, etc. A football league that plays during football season might have a chance, but it just hasn't been tried.
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Old 02-19-2019, 08:06 PM
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As it appears, from the little bit of reading that Iíve done, theyíve had several games already that have had poor attendance due, in part, to really lousy weather.

I suspect that they started their season immediately after the Suoer Bowl to take advantage of a (relatively) light sports calendar in February ó start in March, and their first few weeks (when they are hoping to build a fan base) get buried by March Madness. An April start is up against the start of the MLB season, etc.

But, February suffers from often-lousy weather, even in the South, as well as Super Bowl hangover. Thereís probably no ideal window for them.
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Old 02-20-2019, 11:15 AM
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League management calls the bailout an "investment" by Tom Dundon. Okay, it may be, but it's speculative, and it must be a quarter billion he can afford to flush. Anyway, they can now meet payroll, which they couldn't last week.

In other AAF news, the Orlando Apollos are moving their training site to Georgia due to workers' comp laws. The league does not have insurance for it.
  #72  
Old 02-20-2019, 11:53 AM
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In other AAF news, the Orlando Apollos are moving their training site to Georgia due to workers' comp laws. The league does not have insurance for it.
That sounds bad to me.
  #73  
Old 02-20-2019, 12:24 PM
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I suspect that they didn't lose a quarter-billion that week; while the article notes that they needed a cash infusion in order to make payroll, I would expect that the $250 million that they received from Dundon wasn't just to make that weekly payroll, but to keep the league solvent for long enough to (they hope) get their feet under them.
That would appear to be true. If the players are making $250,000 over three years, then the total league player payroll should only be about $4 million per game.
  #74  
Old 02-20-2019, 12:37 PM
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In other AAF news, the Orlando Apollos are moving their training site to Georgia due to workers' comp laws. The league does not have insurance for it.
Me, a day ago:

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And, the AAF seems to be being run by people who understand the business
I may have spoken too soon.
  #75  
Old 02-20-2019, 12:47 PM
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Why wouldn't weeknights during football season work? When you want some, and it's a Tuesday or Wednesday, you're SOL until Thursday Night Football, then Friday HS games and Saturday NCAA, etc. A football league that plays during football season might have a chance, but it just hasn't been tried.
My suspicion (I may well be wrong) is that, if they were to play in the fall, while, yes, they could stake out Tuesday or Wednesday as "AAF Night," they'd also be fighting an uphill battle for attention from football fans at that time of year, who are already following their favorite NFL / college / high school teams at that point.

While it's true that they wouldn't necessarily be in direct competition for fan eyeballs on game nights if they played mid-week in the fall, part of their approach / proposition today seems to be providing a desired product (football games) at a time of year in which it isn't otherwise available.
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Old 02-20-2019, 01:47 PM
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Sure, it's possible that there simply is no market niche available for minor-league football above the beer league level. By now, we all ought to know there is none in spring or summer, so I was just suggesting the only one that hasn't been tried yet.
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Old 02-20-2019, 02:43 PM
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In other AAF news, the Orlando Apollos are moving their training site to Georgia due to workers' comp laws. The league does not have insurance for it.
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That sounds bad to me.
Good Lord that sucks. The closest Georgia line to us is still like 3 or so hours away.

Hell, you know who the winner of this whole thing will end up being? Vince freakin McMahon. If he's serious about the XFL then he is sitting back and realizing every mistake AAF is making. Not saying the XFL is going to fair any better, but good lord.

The story here for those who are curious
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  #78  
Old 02-20-2019, 03:51 PM
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Why wouldn't weeknights during football season work? When you want some, and it's a Tuesday or Wednesday, you're SOL until Thursday Night Football, then Friday HS games and Saturday NCAA, etc. A football league that plays during football season might have a chance, but it just hasn't been tried.
Thatís way too much football. Iíd never watch it. I barely watch college as it is, thereís plenty of NFL going on and I get burned out a bit. The AAF gives me a chance to watch football out of season, which is the main reason I watch it.
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Old 02-23-2019, 08:26 PM
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Will the AAF last more than one season?
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Old 02-24-2019, 07:29 AM
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Attendance has been close to 30K in San Antonio, 20K or close in Orlando, San Diego, and Birmingham, and in the 10K range elsewhere.
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Old 02-24-2019, 02:50 PM
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Will the AAF last more than one season?
It's probably too early to prognosticate. I seem to remember reading something in which an AAF official said that they felt they could average 20,000 attendance at their games, and that they'd consider that to be a good, solid base to work from. If ElvisLIves's numbers in the previous post are accurate, they're missing the mark on that goal in half of their markets. It remains to be seen if attendance will build (if fans' interest in the league grows), or decline (as we get into March and April, and as sports fans have other options drawing their attention).

If it were solely operating as a football league, then, between the attendance and the need for an emergency cash infusion after one week would have me saying, "signs point to no." But, as DinoR noted earlier in this thread, the league seems to be viewing at least part of their business plan as developing various technologies which can be more broadly used in sports gambling. If that's the case, then the investors may be willing to keep throwing money at the league for a while longer than they would if it were just a sports league, in hopes that they can recoup their investments when the gambling data technology pans out.

Last edited by kenobi 65; 02-24-2019 at 02:51 PM.
  #82  
Old 02-24-2019, 04:37 PM
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Source.
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Old 02-24-2019, 05:19 PM
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I'd also read something suggesting that the announced 20K at San Diego's first game was on the optimistic side.

https://www.fanduel.com/theduel/post...ndance-figures
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Old 02-24-2019, 07:29 PM
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I just watched some of the Atlanta-Birmingham game (I wouldn't ordinarily, but was visiting my sister, and they had it on). My general impression was that, at their best, these guys were as good as NFL players, but that where they fell short was in consistency: They'd execute one play perfectly and make it look easy, but then on the next they'd bobble a really easy catch or the like. I'm not yet sure how entertaining I find that.
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Old 02-24-2019, 08:50 PM
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl...cid=spartandhp

this is going around the net …
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Old 02-25-2019, 12:03 AM
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I just watched some of the Atlanta-Birmingham game (I wouldn't ordinarily, but was visiting my sister, and they had it on). My general impression was that, at their best, these guys were as good as NFL players, but that where they fell short was in consistency: They'd execute one play perfectly and make it look easy, but then on the next they'd bobble a really easy catch or the like. I'm not yet sure how entertaining I find that.
I kind of like it. I think itís a matter of relativity. In the NFL, most teams will manage a play correctly on both offense and defense and balance each other out, giving up yards at times, at other times causing an incompletion or loss of yards. And every now and then youíll see an amazing circus catch, or a totally dominant sack, or a runner breaking a half dozen tackles to make it 50 yards to the end zone. A crazy play that makes highlight reels over and over.

In the AAF you have guys who generally arenít at the NFL level. So they make mistakes; miss open receivers, miss tackles, (literally) drop the ball. Every now and then you see a perfectly competent play that makes them look like NFL players. Thatís the AAFís equivalent of an NFL highlight reel play. Theyíre exciting when they happen for the same reason exceptional NFL plays are exciting. Theyíre rare, they happen unexpectedly, and they can change a game or a guyís career. The bar is set lower but itís the same height for everyone in that league.
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Old 02-25-2019, 01:06 AM
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I just watched some of the Atlanta-Birmingham game (I wouldn't ordinarily, but was visiting my sister, and they had it on). My general impression was that, at their best, these guys were as good as NFL players, but that where they fell short was in consistency: They'd execute one play perfectly and make it look easy, but then on the next they'd bobble a really easy catch or the like. I'm not yet sure how entertaining I find that.
I watched portions of both the Memphis / Orlando and San Antonio / San Diego games this weekend, and that's pretty much my impression, as well. Also, a few of the teams have guys who had more than a cup of coffee in the NFL, and those guys tend to look like men among boys in their levels of execution.

(Thirdly, the San Diego quarterback has a really obnoxious-sounding cadence call, and after a quarter or so of hearing it over and over, I very much did not want to hear him again.)
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Old 02-25-2019, 09:28 AM
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Ugh.

I'm definitely biased because my hometown team is arguably the best in the league (apologies to coach Spurrior for disagreeing with me), but things like this are just going to torpedo the league before it even has a chance...and of all the leagues that have come up in recent memory this one actually has a chance.

It definitely won't happen, but they need the NFL to pump half a billion dollars into it no questions asked and let them grow and be good.
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Old 02-26-2019, 09:29 AM
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Why wouldn't weeknights during football season work? When you want some, and it's a Tuesday or Wednesday, you're SOL until Thursday Night Football, then Friday HS games and Saturday NCAA, etc. A football league that plays during football season might have a chance, but it just hasn't been tried.
You forget MACtion!
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Old 02-26-2019, 09:31 AM
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The MAC expelled UMass. They're dead to me.
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Old 02-26-2019, 11:02 AM
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It definitely won't happen, but they need the NFL to pump half a billion dollars into it no questions asked and let them grow and be good.
You're right on both counts. It definitely won't happen, because there's zero incentive for the NFL to donate money to such a league. And make no mistake, it would basically be a donation. But they've got a minor league already and it costs them nothing. It's the NCAA. On the other hand, a lower level pro football league has never been able to operate long term without the clout of the NFL behind it. As long as NCAA football exists as it does today, the AAF or whatever other pro football wannabe league comes around will always be 3rd rate at best.
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Old 02-26-2019, 11:42 AM
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The Memphis Express has benched starting QB Christian Hackenberg, whose play had been fairly underwhelming. They'd replaced him at halftime of their last game with Zach Mettenberger, who played well in relief, and who is now the starter.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/02/25/ch...emphis-express
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Old 02-26-2019, 01:24 PM
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You're right on both counts. It definitely won't happen, because there's zero incentive for the NFL to donate money to such a league. And make no mistake, it would basically be a donation. But they've got a minor league already and it costs them nothing. It's the NCAA. On the other hand, a lower level pro football league has never been able to operate long term without the clout of the NFL behind it. As long as NCAA football exists as it does today, the AAF or whatever other pro football wannabe league comes around will always be 3rd rate at best.
The NCAA sucks. The NFL drafts players then has to teach them how to play NFL football, while trying to get them to unlearn NCAA techniques. Thatís why you canít draft a decent offensive lineman anymore. Why doesnít MLB draft from NCAA? Itís because they donít need to, they have minor leagues and donít have to settle.

Itís all about priorities I guess. If the NFL thought it was worth it theyíd do what MLB does. Since they donít I guess theyíre not seeing the issues to be bad enough to warrant the investment into a minor league. But donít pretend the problems arenít there. You hear about them constantly.
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Old 02-26-2019, 01:39 PM
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MLB certainly does draft college players. They are often preferred, since they are closer to physical maturity and their eventual value is far more predictable.

The AAF guys who are standing out were fringe backups or practice squad guys in the NFL, and eventually got cut there. Obviously they have some talent and did pay attention when they were there, but that's where they top out. The few best of this league's players do have some hope of getting notice and making a practice squad this summer, but that's its level.
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Old 02-26-2019, 01:44 PM
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MLB certainly does draft college players. They are often preferred, since they are closer to physical maturity and their eventual value is far more predictable.
But they usually spend time in the minors before being ready for the majors. The NFL has no minors. The closest would be a practice squad but thatís a tiny group; 10 players and you only get to keep a player there for a couple of years. Thereís no minor league to send guys down to for training and experience.
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Old 02-26-2019, 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by kenobi 65 View Post
The Memphis Express has benched starting QB Christian Hackenberg, whose play had been fairly underwhelming. They'd replaced him at halftime of their last game with Zach Mettenberger, who played well in relief, and who is now the starter.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/02/25/ch...emphis-express
Jeez....talk about a fall from grace. He was absolutely the next big thing in the Big Ten and just...died.
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  #97  
Old 02-27-2019, 02:20 PM
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It seem that Johnny Manziel burned his CFL bridge. Maybe the AAF will take a flyer on him.
  #98  
Old 02-27-2019, 02:33 PM
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What happened - did he piss hot?

The AAF is really for guys who are hoping to get noticed by NFL scouts. The NFL already knows about Manziel, and Josh Gordon too for that matter.
  #99  
Old 02-27-2019, 03:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElvisL1ves View Post
What happened - did he piss hot?
The article doesn't specify (nor did the Alouettes or the league), but he apparently had to sign an agreement with the CFL, which had "extensive and exacting" terms, before the league would approve his signing (originally with Hamilton).
  #100  
Old 02-27-2019, 03:46 PM
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The prevailing theory is that he did something to open his window to the NFL either by direct NFL stuff or AAF stuff and that violated his contract.

I've not heard it was drug/alcohol/party related
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