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  #701  
Old 08-16-2019, 10:48 PM
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If you want to do the GOP's work by deep-sixing someone who would certainly be a vast improvement on Trump, no matter how old, then go ahead.
But that's the thing, Sherrard; Joe Biden is deep sixing himself. I'm sorry but I agree with CarnalK: there's no way people are going to ignore his senior moments in front of a mic forever. People begin to notice these things.

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Yes. There is a time to stop the infighting. There is a time to put a lid on personal ambition and think about the good of the country.
Right, but the race just started. That time isn't now.
  #702  
Old 08-16-2019, 10:52 PM
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Yes, that means trump walks to re-election.
Trump walks to re-election if they fail to unite behind a leader and if they fail to inspire people to vote. We can handle a fiercely competitive primary. I don't disagree that it shouldn't by no-holds-barred -- the candidates shouldn't say things that make the entire democratic party look bad, which is why I'm a little squeamish about identity politics. But if Joe Biden confuses Margaret Thatcher with Teresa May and gives confusing responses to debate question or ducks questions, how is that an attack on Biden? That's Biden attacking himself.
  #703  
Old 08-16-2019, 10:54 PM
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But that's the thing, Sherrard; Joe Biden is deep sixing himself. I'm sorry but I agree with CarnalK: there's no way people are going to ignore his senior moments in front of a mic forever. People begin to notice these things.


.
Yeah? Why isnt Sanders too old? Where are the republican posters saying trump is too old?

And Joes little gaffes? he's been making them all his life. They arent "senior moments."n

Last edited by DrDeth; 08-16-2019 at 10:58 PM.
  #704  
Old 08-16-2019, 10:56 PM
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Look. I expect and hope to see Warren criticized. I need to see how she handles it before I can fully believe in her. But I would not expect or want to see a Democrat doing a Pocahontas approach. Sleepy Joe is self same.
Then you might like this video. Saagar criticizes Warren and Krystal Ball criticizes Biden.

Saagar and Ball are both on a show called Rising from The Hill. At minute 1, Saagar says that Warren's response to CharlamagneThaGod's question on a Breakfast Club video about her heritage left her blank. I didn't see what he saw, but you can decide that based on the video. I watched the entire Breakfast Club video and thought Warren did pretty well.

Although Saagar calls Warren "economically brilliant", he says that her "woke" base leads her to take actions that she shouldn't.

Krystal's criticisms of Biden are the same one as on this thread. They're using the same article, which is from The Hill. Biden's doing a fraction of the events as other candidates but already needs more downtime.

Full disclosure: Krystal Ball is a big Andrew Yang fan (although Saagar not so much), which might invalidate the op-ed for you, but the video of Warren's reaction is still there for you to interpret.

Last edited by Heffalump and Roo; 08-16-2019 at 10:57 PM. Reason: forgot the link to the video
  #705  
Old 08-16-2019, 11:12 PM
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Yeah? Why isnt Sanders too old? Where are the republican posters saying trump is too old?

And Joes little gaffes? he's been making them all his life. They arent "senior moments."n
FTR, yes, Sanders is absolutely too old. But he runs younger than Joe, so that's why he looks better in debates.
  #706  
Old 08-16-2019, 11:42 PM
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Well, "Sleepy Joe" might not be the way to put it but I think whether to elect a 76/77 yr old man to the job is a legitimate issue. I don't know how you can phrase it that would satisfy the likes of DrDeth and Sherrerd.
If not Joe then whom? I'm seeing this thread repeatedly rise to the top of the forum with posters telling us what a disaster he is. Where's Warren's thread with the convincing argument that she's the one? Or Inslee's? Or Harris's? Or Beto's?

I mean this place is a microcosm of the greater campaign. If Dems are gonna spend all their time and energy telling us how bad Biden (or whomever the frontrunner is) is, rather than selling us on their (or their candidate's) platform or electability, just brace yourself for 4 more years.

Quit shitting on Democrats and tell us who is the one to beat Trump. We need to fight like hell, but if we spend months fighting like hell *against* someone rather than *for* someone, then this just all falls into Trump's lap with a big fucking bow.
  #707  
Old 08-17-2019, 01:04 AM
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If not Joe then whom? I'm seeing this thread repeatedly rise to the top of the forum with posters telling us what a disaster he is. Where's Warren's thread with the convincing argument that she's the one? Or Inslee's? Or Harris's? Or Beto's?

I mean this place is a microcosm of the greater campaign. If Dems are gonna spend all their time and energy telling us how bad Biden (or whomever the frontrunner is) is, rather than selling us on their (or their candidate's) platform or electability, just brace yourself for 4 more years.

Quit shitting on Democrats and tell us who is the one to beat Trump. We need to fight like hell, but if we spend months fighting like hell *against* someone rather than *for* someone, then this just all falls into Trump's lap with a big fucking bow.
Biden will beat trump, no doubt. Maybe not the best President we could put up, but he is the one sure to beat trump.
  #708  
Old 08-17-2019, 03:31 AM
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If not Joe then whom? I'm seeing this thread repeatedly rise to the top of the forum with posters telling us what a disaster he is. Where's Warren's thread with the convincing argument that she's the one? Or Inslee's? Or Harris's? Or Beto's?
With two dozen candidates cluttering up the landscape, I didn't see the point in having threads for each candidate. Who needs that many separate threads about the race for the 2020 nomination?

And of course the main argument being made for Biden here is that he's a tad more 'electable' than anyone else. So - shock and surprise! - people are pointing out why he's probably not particularly electable. And how even if he wins, he'll let Mitch McConnell handcuff him the way he handcuffed Obama for most of his Presidency.

Now that the race is narrowing to just a few candidates that people are paying attention to, maybe it's time for threads about each of the candidates that are drawing nontrivial support. Let's see: we're in a Biden thread, here's a thread about Warren and Sanders, here's one about Sanders, here's one about Harris, and here's one about Mayor Pete.

Looks like we've got it covered.
  #709  
Old 08-17-2019, 09:22 AM
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With two dozen candidates cluttering up the landscape, I didn't see the point in having threads for each candidate. Who needs that many separate threads about the race for the 2020 nomination?

And of course the main argument being made for Biden here is that he's a tad more 'electable' than anyone else. So - shock and surprise! - people are pointing out why he's probably not particularly electable. And how even if he wins, he'll let Mitch McConnell handcuff him the way he handcuffed Obama for most of his Presidency.

Now that the race is narrowing to just a few candidates that people are paying attention to, maybe it's time for threads about each of the candidates that are drawing nontrivial support. Let's see: we're in a Biden thread, here's a thread about Warren and Sanders, here's one about Sanders, here's one about Harris, and here's one about Mayor Pete.

Looks like we've got it covered.
No kidding, sparky. I know those exist. My point is, no one's posting in those. Try convincing us [your candidate here] has what it takes to beat Trump, and maybe take a pause from telling us what a shitbird Biden is. We get it. You think he's terrible. So who's good?

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 08-17-2019 at 09:22 AM.
  #710  
Old 08-17-2019, 09:34 AM
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I think Warren is good. Harris is good. It's certainly fair to question whether or not they could beat Trump in the general election, but I don't think many people are arguing otherwise.

People aren't trashing Biden so much as pointing out that he's not necessarily as "electable" as people say he is. Moreover, let's face it: we all remember what happened a few years ago when the Democratic party coronated the front-runner. To be clear, I'm not saying Hillary Clinton didn't win or didn't deserve to win or that she won a "rigged" nomination, but there's no disputing that the party itself, as well as many of us who voted for her, assumed that her nomination was a foregone conclusion from the start, and we assumed further that she would easily defeat Trump. We know how both of those assumptions played out, so you'll have to pardon people for being a wee bit skeptical of accepting at face value Biden's supposed political strength.

There are very real problems with Joe Biden. It's a very telling, and troubling, sign when his own campaign decides they're better off limiting his exposure at a time when candidates typically seek to maximize their exposure and strengthen their brand. If Biden can confront the concerns that people have and win the nomination, I think you'll see the party unite around him, and he'll undoubtedly bring in independent voters and maybe even some Republicans who are disgusted with Trump. But he's not going to do that by hiding from the cameras and looking weak. There's just too much exposure in a campaign to think that this is going to be an effective strategy.
  #711  
Old 08-17-2019, 10:05 AM
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No kidding, sparky. I know those exist. My point is, no one's posting in those. Try convincing us [your candidate here] has what it takes to beat Trump, and maybe take a pause from telling us what a shitbird Biden is. We get it. You think he's terrible. So who's good?
In terms of being able to beat Trump? Many of the candidates. Jay Inslee could beat Trump if he could win the nomination. I really think 'electability' comes down more to which candidates have a problem, not which candidate has that special sauce.

Since it looks like a Biden v. Warren contest for the nomination might be starting to shape up, I think Warren would do just fine. What's Trump going to do, call her 'Pocahontas' some more?

I think that unlike Biden, Warren's quite aware that Mitch McConnell will be a brick wall in the way of pretty much anything the Dems try to do in 2021, so assuming they can win the Senate next fall, they've got to kill the filibuster next. Having the party nominee saying this will move the ball forward because both reporters and activists will be asking Dem Senators where they stand on the filibuster.

Also unlike Biden, Warren is clearly aware that we're facing a climate emergency, and we need to move big and fast to address it.

She's on the right side of a whole bunch of issues, and has concrete plans to address them. She's a candidate who can tie where she is on the issues to stories from her life that working people, especially working women, can relate to. If she wins the nomination, she'll be a good nominee and a good President.
  #712  
Old 08-17-2019, 10:14 AM
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Going to see Mayor Pete this afternoon. Second time in a month or two. Bernie's in town, Harris, too.

Being in one of the early states. It's a thing.
  #713  
Old 08-17-2019, 11:18 AM
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Biden’s performances so far have ranged from a D to a few hints of solid B. His gaffe predilection is baked in to his numbers but yeah he needs to show he’s got the skillz to dismantle Trump, not just have it claimed because of how he polls without really campaigning. He’s not sleepy or senile and those claims are embarrassing to the ones who make them, but he is the same affable clumsy mouthed candidate who has lost the nom before.

I for one would feel better supporting him if he demonstrated some better speaking skills.

Warren has a good case to make that she is electable too. She manages to straddle being enough of a change it all up message to attract those who just want change (Obama-Trump voters included), while still leaving establishment types with a feeling that she isn’t nuts and just going to destroy things. She hasn’t shown that she can inspire Black turnout but that is offset maybe by marginal increases in younger voter turnout.

She needs to be tested some more but she has a good case to make.

I suspect there are quite a few like me supporting Biden but tentatively. We won’t be won over by beating up Biden. We are winnable by completing the sale of another choice on her strengths.
  #714  
Old 08-17-2019, 11:22 AM
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In terms of being able to beat Trump? Many of the candidates. Jay Inslee could beat Trump if he could win the nomination. I really think 'electability' comes down more to which candidates have a problem, not which candidate has that special sauce.

Since it looks like a Biden v. Warren contest for the nomination might be starting to shape up, I think Warren would do just fine. What's Trump going to do, call her 'Pocahontas' some more?
Yes, and it will work. He and his base will have a blast making fun of her and he'll campaign his ass off all over the midwest and the "Rust Belt" and the crowds will roar with laughter and applause, energizing Republicans. He'll do the exact same thing in the debates and she will be thrown off her "serious woman talking about serious business" game, be rattled by Trump's juvenile attacks and unable to parry it with any humor, and come off looking like Hillary 2.0. Black voters in the main are going to be unenthused about a woman who looks and speaks like someone's mom in 1997 at a PTA meeting warning the parents about the dangers of Marilyn Manson and Eminem, and their turnout will be lackluster. And anyone who thinks that Warren can connect with blue collar workers has never been a blue collar worker. We'll have 4 more "Tremendous", "Yuge" years.

Last edited by Lamoral; 08-17-2019 at 11:25 AM.
  #715  
Old 08-17-2019, 11:42 AM
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Yes, and it will work. He and his base will have a blast making fun of her and he'll campaign his ass off all over the midwest and the "Rust Belt" and the crowds will roar with laughter and applause, energizing Republicans. He'll do the exact same thing in the debates and she will be thrown off her "serious woman talking about serious business" game, be rattled by Trump's juvenile attacks and unable to parry it with any humor, and come off looking like Hillary 2.0. Black voters in the main are going to be unenthused about a woman who looks and speaks like someone's mom in 1997 at a PTA meeting warning the parents about the dangers of Marilyn Manson and Eminem, and their turnout will be lackluster. And anyone who thinks that Warren can connect with blue collar workers has never been a blue collar worker. We'll have 4 more "Tremendous", "Yuge" years.
Trump has plenty of subject matter to humiliate him with if he dares to do that. I'd love to see Buttigieg on the ticket one way or another because he hits him hard on "the pron star presidency" rather than try and take the high ground. He probably won't come close to the nomination but as VP pick...I'd pay to watch Buttigieg debate Pence.
  #716  
Old 08-17-2019, 11:47 AM
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Charles Pierce on Warren:
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But the thing that's sold Elizabeth Warren to Iowa is primarily Elizabeth Warren. None of the candidates seems to be having as much fun as she is. The endless selfies after speeches. The pinky-swears with young girls about how what girls do is run for president. Her willingness to hold town halls anywhere. That loose-limbed, almost goofy wave with which she steps onto every stage. In a gloomy political time, with a humorless sociopathic bully in the White House, and with all the worst impulses of the national Id come out to play, Senator Professor Warren is the campaign's happy warrior, the teacher everybody hopes they get when school starts up again in the fall. People respond to the good feeling around her campaign as much as they respond to the blizzard of policy proposals that campaign has loosed upon the electorate.
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She is a liberal academic who lives in Massachusetts, but she is not a Massachusetts Liberal in the easy caricature that has been so useful to the Republicans over the last 40 years. She is neither a quiet technocrat like Michael Dukakis nor a chilly WASPish icon like John Kerry. She is Oklahoma, born and bred, and it shows in the easy way she connects with audiences here. She is not Harvard. She is someone who went to two public universities before she ever got there. There is none of the distance, none of the archness, common to Ivy League academics.

And the people who come expecting a Dukakis or a Kerry come away happily surprised. And the people who come away expecting an ivory-tower Harvard lecturer leave feeling smarter, and experiencing the conquest of learning in a way they haven't felt it since elementary school. None of this is to say what may happen when the guns really open up on her, but it is to say, for now, that Elizabeth Warren is running a campaign of hope and optimism and enthusiasm as surely as did Ronald Reagan, that ol' Iowa radio guy, in 1980, and as surely as Barack Obama did in 2008.
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Old 08-17-2019, 08:10 PM
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...I'd pay to watch Buttigieg debate Pence.
That would be amazing. Buttigieg has at least 20 IQ points on Pence, I'd guess, and then there's the famous Pence un-ease around the topic of sexual orientation. Pence would try to be condescending and fail, and Buttigieg would be kind but firm. And probably witty, too.

The ratings might top ratings for the presidential debates!




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Thanks for posting that; some great insights from Pierce.



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... He and his base will have a blast making fun of her and he'll campaign his ass off all over the midwest and the "Rust Belt" and the crowds will roar with laughter and applause, energizing Republicans. He'll do the exact same thing in the debates and she will be thrown off her "serious woman talking about serious business" game, be rattled by Trump's juvenile attacks and unable to parry it with any humor, and come off looking like Hillary 2.0. Black voters in the main are going to be unenthused about a woman who looks and speaks like someone's mom in 1997 at a PTA meeting warning the parents about the dangers of Marilyn Manson and Eminem, and their turnout will be lackluster. ...
Interesting prediction. Doesn't seem to have much connection with the actual Elizabeth Warren, though. Seems like more of an eccentric fantasy. (Probably a fantasy cherished by several Trump fans.)
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Old 08-17-2019, 08:14 PM
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And Joes little gaffes? he's been making them all his life. They arent "senior moments."n
Yes, the re-branding effort isn't very convincing, given the fact that we have access to the historical record.

But those who enjoy the trashing, will go on a-trashing. And it will have an effect. Certainly Bernie's attempt to brand Hillary as corrupt, with all his emphasis on her "Wall Street speeches," was quite successful in the 2016 election. People looked at the fact that the trashing was coming from the non-Republican side, and that gave it added weight.
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Old 08-17-2019, 10:16 PM
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Interesting prediction. Doesn't seem to have much connection with the actual Elizabeth Warren, though. Seems like more of an eccentric fantasy. (Probably a fantasy cherished by several Trump fans.)
It's no fantasy of mine, believe me, it's a deeply troubling scenario. I rate Biden's chances as being better than Warren's, but still low. My favorites are Buttigieg and Booker. In fact, I think they would make a stellar ticket - with Booker at the top spot. I know that's unfortunately unlikely to happen though.
  #720  
Old 08-18-2019, 01:07 AM
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Interesting prediction. Doesn't seem to have much connection with the actual Elizabeth Warren, though. Seems like more of an eccentric fantasy. (Probably a fantasy cherished by several Trump fans.)
I agree the piece by Pierce is very insightful. I have been an admirer of Warren since she first ran for Senate. I believe she would make a great President.

The problem is the GOP and Trump will lie about her and cheat in every way they can to stop her. The oligarchs despise her. Jamie Dimon and his amoral cronies will pull out all the stops to keep her from being elected. Thanks to Moscow Mitch the Russians already have free rein to run wild in 2020 and if Warren is the nominee they will destroy her in ways that will make what was done in 2016 look like child's play.

The saddest thing will be how the supposed liberal media will do next to nothing to call out the liars and their lies. Repeating all the lies and feeding the controversy will be too important to drive ratings and at the end of the day that is ALL they really care about. In a general election Warren won't be allowed to get her positive message out because her campaign will constantly be on the defensive and never allowed to influence the news cycle in the ways they must in order to win.

Last edited by Kolak of Twilo; 08-18-2019 at 01:08 AM.
  #721  
Old 08-18-2019, 01:30 PM
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And Joes little gaffes? he's been making them all his life. They arent "senior moments."n
If thatís the defense youíre going with, please try again.
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Old 08-18-2019, 02:00 PM
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That is no defense, it a straightforward observation. It is why these gaffes do little to his numbers: his doing this is already baked in.

The current set is no worse than the many heís made over the years. Each one will get more press now of course, but those prepared to vote for him unless someone else demonstrates sufficient chops expect them from him by now.

Disingenuously painting him as becoming demented wonít hurt him in the primary. These voters know him. It will however provide the foundation for hurting him in the general if he is the nominee. Thatís a different audience.
  #723  
Old 08-18-2019, 05:39 PM
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If thatís the defense youíre going with, please try again.

It's true. Joe has been known for those for decades at least.
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Old 08-18-2019, 06:47 PM
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That is no defense, it a straightforward observation. It is why these gaffes do little to his numbers: his doing this is already baked in.
What does ďbaked inĒ mean? Youíre acting as though the feelings that voters have towards these candidates is fixed in stone. Believe it or not, a lot of people are only now starting to realize (or remember) that Biden sucks so much in the speech department. Riding on Obamaís coattails only gets you so far before performance under the spotlight starts to really matter.

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The current set is no worse than the many heís made over the years.
Over the years? You mean the years pre-Trump? Since 2017, the country has been suffering under a president who is a royally fucked up gaffe machine. Gaffes take on a different meaning when living with them like weíve had to do.

Biden isnít the only one whose cringey speech raises questions about his age and cognitive health. Trump is facing this criticism too, and rightly so. This parallel is just one more reason why Biden vs Trump isnít the ideal contest. That and sexual impropriety are two things Biden canít go there without exposing his own damn self.
  #725  
Old 08-18-2019, 08:46 PM
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“Baked in”? You’re not familiar with that phrase?

Those who support Biden are overwhelmingly of populations that expect gaffes from him and know that this is not a new age related thing. The untruthful statement that is can sour the younger voters who do not support him from being enthusiastic in the general but they are already not voting for him in the primary.

The proof of what I assert is in the polls and their lack of significant movement.

Movement from him will happen if it happens not because of disingenuous negative campaigning against him but on the strengths of Warren as the other choice, assuming she continues to show that strength.
  #726  
Old 08-18-2019, 09:47 PM
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Movement from him will happen if it happens not because of disingenuous negative campaigning against him but on the strengths of Warren as the other choice, assuming she continues to show that strength.
Ffs, it’s not disingenuous to argue against Biden on these grounds. I could care less whether his foibles are due to old age or a natural predilection for speaking without thinking. It marks him as a weak presidential candidate.

And really, the polls haven’t moved much because the race is still early. If Biden starts taking it slow and easy to keep his public embarrassments to a minimum, it allows others like Warren to grab more attention. “Baked in” is overconfidence.

Last edited by you with the face; 08-18-2019 at 09:51 PM.
  #727  
Old 08-18-2019, 10:19 PM
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Ffs, itís not disingenuous to argue against Biden on these grounds. I could care less whether his foibles are due to old age or a natural predilection for speaking without thinking. It marks him as a weak presidential candidate.....
The gaffes seem to be part of his charm and popularity, so you are wrong.
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Old 08-19-2019, 05:54 AM
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The gaffes seem to be part of his charm and popularity, so you are wrong.
Lol!
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Old 08-19-2019, 03:53 PM
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Yes, and it will work. He and his base will have a blast making fun of her and he'll campaign his ass off all over the midwest and the "Rust Belt" and the crowds will roar with laughter and applause, energizing Republicans. He'll do the exact same thing in the debates and she will be thrown off her "serious woman talking about serious business" game, be rattled by Trump's juvenile attacks and unable to parry it with any humor, and come off looking like Hillary 2.0. Black voters in the main are going to be unenthused about a woman who looks and speaks like someone's mom in 1997 at a PTA meeting warning the parents about the dangers of Marilyn Manson and Eminem, and their turnout will be lackluster. And anyone who thinks that Warren can connect with blue collar workers has never been a blue collar worker. We'll have 4 more "Tremendous", "Yuge" years.
The type of voters who are going to be swayed by Trump's "Pocohontas" line, especially at the late dates of the presidential debates, will have been in Trump's corner from the beginning. As for Warren in general not being able to stand up to Trump's juvenile attacks, on the contrary, her demeanor and generally forceful way of speaking will be more than enough to counter him with. And I've been a blue collar worker, and though I am not one now, I still think of myself as one, and connect with her just fine, because her whole thing is about giving power back to blue collar workers.
  #730  
Old 08-19-2019, 05:51 PM
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Yes, and it will work. He and his base will have a blast making fun of her and he'll campaign his ass off all over the midwest and the "Rust Belt" and the crowds will roar with laughter and applause, energizing Republicans. He'll do the exact same thing in the debates and she will be thrown off her "serious woman talking about serious business" game, be rattled by Trump's juvenile attacks and unable to parry it with any humor, and come off looking like Hillary 2.0. Black voters in the main are going to be unenthused about a woman who looks and speaks like someone's mom in 1997 at a PTA meeting warning the parents about the dangers of Marilyn Manson and Eminem, and their turnout will be lackluster. And anyone who thinks that Warren can connect with blue collar workers has never been a blue collar worker. We'll have 4 more "Tremendous", "Yuge" years.
I donít think Iíve heard any black people saying this about Warren, so this looks like projection. As long as Warren doesnít go out of her way to avoid black communities, doesnít say things that are racist or racist-adjacent, and sticks to her progressive platform, Iím confident she will get good black turnout.

The thing that hurt Hillary was the stupid but nonetheless pervasive idea that she was evil. Evil incarnate unlike the world has ever seen. The GOP pounded this drum for 20 years. Warren doesnít have that handicap, so itís wrong to see her treatment as anything like Hillaryís.
  #731  
Old 08-20-2019, 11:52 AM
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Originally Posted by Kolak of Twilo View Post
The problem is the GOP and Trump will lie about her and cheat in every way they can to stop her.
That's going to be true no matter who the Dem nominee is. Remember what they did to a moderate technocrat like Dukakis, and it's not like they've become nicer since 1988. They're going to throw the kitchen sink at whoever the Dems choose, so maybe it ought to be someone that Dems really like and will go out of their way to turn out to vote for.

I think it's not Biden. He's as close to a default choice, an heir apparent to the nomination, as the Dems have this cycle, but he's only polling at 28% in the battle for the nomination. Given that everyone knows who Joe Biden is, that says to me that a lot of Dems have considered Joe and have shrugged their shoulders. The likelihood that he's going to pull those marginal Dem voters out of the woodwork next Election Day is slim. And the thing that really can kill us next November is low turnout.
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Old 08-20-2019, 02:02 PM
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I donít think Iíve heard any black people saying this about Warren, so this looks like projection. As long as Warren doesnít go out of her way to avoid black communities, doesnít say things that are racist or racist-adjacent, and sticks to her progressive platform, Iím confident she will get good black turnout.

The thing that hurt Hillary was the stupid but nonetheless pervasive idea that she was evil. Evil incarnate unlike the world has ever seen. The GOP pounded this drum for 20 years. Warren doesnít have that handicap, so itís wrong to see her treatment as anything like Hillaryís.
Hillary had strong numbers with black voters. Warren is extremely lowly. One black analysis I highly respect explained simply she has not tried to cultivate a relationship with those communities until she decided to run for president.
  #733  
Old 08-20-2019, 03:02 PM
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Do you have links to these polls with Warren's low numbers among blacks? I have had a very hard time finding polls that give racial (or other demographic) breakdowns in a convenient to find format.
  #734  
Old 08-20-2019, 03:24 PM
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Do you have links to these polls with Warren's low numbers among blacks? I have had a very hard time finding polls that give racial (or other demographic) breakdowns in a convenient to find format.
https://i.imgur.com/4yLVjP5.jpg

https://www.people-press.org/2019/08...ir-top-choice/

https://i.imgur.com/9Ej1Xkl.jpg

https://www.changeresearch.com/south...-aug-9-12-2019

https://i.imgur.com/GRJXbcG.jpg

https://www.scribd.com/document/4165...uly-11-Release
  #735  
Old 08-20-2019, 03:37 PM
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New poll this week

https://www.scribd.com/document/4220...dium=affiliate

Overall:
Biden 31%
Warren 20%
Sanders 10 %
Harris 8%

Black voters:
Biden 37%
Sanders 18%
Harris 10%
Warren 8%
  #736  
Old 08-20-2019, 03:54 PM
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ďBaked inĒ? Youíre not familiar with that phrase?

Those who support Biden are overwhelmingly of populations that expect gaffes from him and know that this is not a new age related thing. The untruthful statement that is can sour the younger voters who do not support him from being enthusiastic in the general but they are already not voting for him in the primary.

The proof of what I assert is in the polls and their lack of significant movement.

Movement from him will happen if it happens not because of disingenuous negative campaigning against him but on the strengths of Warren as the other choice, assuming she continues to show that strength.
He may have always done this, and it may just the effect of the media amplifying his latest mistakes, but it sure seems to me like it's gotten a lot worse lately.

And he's 78. If Harris or Buttigieg were doing this, you could say it's absent-mindedness; devoted personality cultists could even spin it as "lovable". At his age, it looks bad. If you spill a glass of water on yourself, people think you're clumsy. If you spill a glass of wine on yourself, people think you're drunk.

Biden remains my second choice due to the strength of his numbers against Trump. But I find it hard to believe at this point that those numbers will continue to hold up over the course of the campaign.
  #737  
Old 08-20-2019, 03:58 PM
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New poll this week

https://www.scribd.com/document/4220...dium=affiliate

Overall:
Biden 31%
Warren 20%
Sanders 10 %
Harris 8%

Black voters:
Biden 37%
Sanders 18%
Harris 10%
Warren 8%
Thanks! And yeah, you're right, those numbers are really bad.
  #738  
Old 08-20-2019, 04:33 PM
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Hillary had strong numbers with black voters. Warren is extremely lowly. One black analysis I highly respect explained simply she has not tried to cultivate a relationship with those communities until she decided to run for president.
Biden has an advantage over Warren because of his association with Obama—the most popular president ever among Dems. There’s really no need to think any deeper than that. Its not as though Biden has done a lot to cultivate relationships with black communities. He is banking on name recognition with them.

But you’re right that Warren needs to do more campaigning to reach these voters. I’m just saying it’s too early to conclude she can’t light their fire if she somehow got the nomination.

Last edited by you with the face; 08-20-2019 at 04:34 PM.
  #739  
Old 08-20-2019, 05:08 PM
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Well, Delaware has a pretty sizable black population.

And as has been pointed out, Clinton was very popular among blacks in 2016, judging by the primary results; but then they didn't turn out as well for her as had been hoped in the general. So I don't know that we can posit a direct correlation between primary preference and general turnout.

It's amusing to me that a lot of people tried to claim that Sanders' poor performance against Clinton among blacks was evidence that black people had some baked in animosity for Bernie, which would hurt him in the general should he be nominated. But currently, Sanders is actually MORE popular with black Democrats than with white ones. So yes, people can change their minds, and I certainly don't see any particular reason Warren would be intrinsically unappealing to black voters.
  #740  
Old 08-20-2019, 06:58 PM
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... If you spill a glass of water on yourself, people think you're clumsy. If you spill a glass of wine on yourself, people think you're drunk. ...
The people who know you wonít. They know you are clumsy.

Now later if you are spilling wine while next to someone else who is spilling more, well if youíve been accused of being drunk by your family earlier it will be you thought of as drunk by those who donít yet know you quite as well. But otherwise?
  #741  
Old 08-21-2019, 11:14 AM
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I mean this place is a microcosm of the greater campaign. If Dems are gonna spend all their time and energy telling us how bad Biden (or whomever the frontrunner is) is, rather than selling us on their (or their candidate's) platform or electability, just brace yourself for 4 more years.

Quit shitting on Democrats and tell us who is the one to beat Trump. We need to fight like hell, but if we spend months fighting like hell *against* someone rather than *for* someone, then this just all falls into Trump's lap with a big fucking bow.
So how do you feel about people on this board ranting on about Sanders' "Soviet Honeymoon"? Or saying that the "Pocahontas" thing will sink Warren?

Personally, I think it's fine. Those particular attacks are stupid, but they will certainly surface in the general election and it's ridiculous to think we can or should just sweep them all under the rug and go into the general election campaign with no real idea how they will play to voters.
  #742  
Old 08-21-2019, 11:20 AM
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Disingenuously painting him as becoming demented wonít hurt him in the primary. These voters know him. It will however provide the foundation for hurting him in the general if he is the nominee. Thatís a different audience.
I know this wasn't directed at me, but I feel offended by it. Several posters on this board who are well known as committed Democrats, including myself, have expressed concern that Biden's gaffes seem to be getting worse and more frequent.

Do you think some or all of us are lying? That we are in fact not concerned about this, but merely pretending to be in order to advance the chances of our preferred candidate? If so, I would suggest that you either put those posters you have such a low opinion of on ignore, or take it to the Pit.
  #743  
Old 08-21-2019, 01:41 PM
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I donít think you are lying but I do think that your perceptual filter is set to see that which is consistent with what you want to see.

That is not a low opinion unless being human is considered lowly.

I do think it is fair to discuss that Trump will try to pin ďoldĒ and ďsenileĒ on Biden, just as it is fair to anticipate Soviet honeymoon and Pocahontas. That is very different than making those attacks.
  #744  
Old 08-21-2019, 09:16 PM
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I know this wasn't directed at me, but I feel offended by it. Several posters on this board who are well known as committed Democrats, including myself, have expressed concern that Biden's gaffes seem to be getting worse and more frequent.

Do you think some or all of us are lying? That we are in fact not concerned about this, but merely pretending to be in order to advance the chances of our preferred candidate? If so, I would suggest that you either put those posters you have such a low opinion of on ignore, or take it to the Pit.
Lying? No, merely incorrect as to your opinion.

Because, unless you can back that up with a cite?
  #745  
Old 08-21-2019, 09:25 PM
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The fact his campaign team has decided to limit his appearances because of his increasing propensity to stick his foot in his mouth... does that count as a cite?

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019...y-talking-less

Quote:
Now, according to a new report, some Biden allies are proposing a plan to limit the bloopers: restrict his public appearances.

According to the Hill, some close to Biden are floating scaling back his campaign schedule to limit his verbal stumbles. The proposed schedule reduction would appear to serve two purposes: to give his opponents, both in the primary and potentially in the general election, fewer blunders to capitalize on, and to give him more time to rest ahead of what may be a grueling race for the 76-year-old. “He needs to be a strong force on the campaign trail,” one source close to the Biden campaign told the Hill, “but he also has to pace himself.”
I mean, his campaign admits it!

What America needs is something it has never had before: a very old President who gets tired easy and can't stop his mouth. Wait... y'all sure you're not looking for the Democratic Trump?

Last edited by JohnT; 08-21-2019 at 09:27 PM.
  #746  
Old 08-21-2019, 09:58 PM
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"Some close to Biden are floating" the idea isn't really the same as "his campaign admits it", don't you think?
  #747  
Old 08-22-2019, 05:31 PM
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"Some close to Biden are floating" the idea isn't really the same as "his campaign admits it", don't you think?
Correct, they're not the same thing.

Front-runners traditionally make fewer campaign stops and appearances than the rest of the pack.

In fact, search "front runner" and "fewer appearances" and on Google, at least, eight out of the first ten hits are all from news stories about past campaigns: Bill Clinton; Newt Gingrich; Trump in 2016; Rick Santorum, etc. Front-runners in their various races, who, like most front-runners, are out and amongst the voters a bit less than their competitors. And that's because if you're the front-runner, there's no appreciable upside to a grueling-as-possible schedule---but always potential downsides (expense if nothing else).

So some of this "floating" may be reporters trying to goad actual Biden campaign staff into saying something newsworthy.
  #748  
Old 08-25-2019, 12:47 PM
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Invoking the possibility of Obama’s assassination when white-supremacist violence is rising seems reckless, at the very least. Even if there was a more salient point, I can’t understand why any candidate—let alone Obama’s own vice president—would say this.

From here:

https://twitter.com/JamilSmith/statu...43037729341440



I do not believe Biden is the right answer. It is not "his turn" or at least it shouldn't be. He's tired and we need better.
  #749  
Old 08-25-2019, 01:24 PM
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Really?

Did you even make any effort to understand what the context of that statement was?

The discussion was about the impact of events of that time, the murders of those leaders, his political heros, kids being shot at (and some killed and wounded) at Kent State, on those becoming politically aware at that time, on him, to those who were not alive at the time. Think of the impact a thank god it did not happen, murder of the closest you might have to political hero, Obama, would have had on you.

Well, he continued, "“Unless I’m mistaken, Donald Trump did for your generation what the loss of two of my heroes did for mine. What they did was make you realize, my God, we’re in trouble.”

A great oration? Nah. But reckless? That is silliness. His point is salient and, I believe accurate. Trump's election, his promotion of White nationalism from the White House's bully pulpit, his belief that he is The Chosen One, The Savior, has had that sort of impact on many younger voters. Sometimes nightmares becoming reality are the only antidote to apathy.

I am not sure if Biden is the right answer. It is not "his turn" and no one makes the argument it is. Stupid shit like this does not convince any one who leans to him that someone else is better.
  #750  
Old 08-25-2019, 06:42 PM
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I'm trying to think of the context in which this is a nice thing to say. I can't imagine it atm. This is a Biden quote from the article.

Quote:
I think of where we are at the moment. You know, none of you men are old ó women are old enough, but a couple of you guys are old enough to remember. I graduated in 1968.
Telling women they're old by looking at them while the men are not. Even if the age differences were very stark, I'm not seeing the goodness of saying this.
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