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  #601  
Old 03-22-2019, 05:12 PM
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As far as I remember the 3 months that was requested, was only intended as time to finalize laws that need to be written once Theresa May's deal was accepted. This whole three months thing was always on the condition the government won the vote. It was never intended as time to renegotiate. The EU just gave 1 month less because of the elections. That should not make much difference.

It is actually the EU that added the 12th of april thing, so there would still be an option if the government doesn't win the vote (assuming it gets voted on at all). Seems like taking proactive action to me.



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  #602  
Old Yesterday, 03:01 AM
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The 3-week delay is the best thing the EU could have done. 3 months unconditionally would have been incredibly dumb.

3 months would have been presented as EU capitulation and indulgence, and would have strengthened no-dealers as an example of the EU buckling to threats.

It would have made things worse.

Instead, by offering a two-week extension, and a longer one if Parliament agrees on something, the EU is saying 'We can't force you into anything, and you haven't frightened us, but for fucks sake, make a decision, anything, please."


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  #603  
Old Yesterday, 03:10 AM
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As far as I remember the 3 months that was requested, was only intended as time to finalize laws that need to be written once Theresa May's deal was accepted.
Precisely, the "once Teresa May's deal was accepted" being the magic that was somehow going to happen. It's painfully clear that May has no plan for getting it accepted other than "abuse and insult the people whose agreement you need and then ask them, once again, to agree", and no plan at all for what to do if she can't get it accepted.

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Originally Posted by polar bear View Post
This whole three months thing was always on the condition the government won the vote. It was never intended as time to renegotiate. The EU just gave 1 month less because of the elections. That should not make much difference.

It is actually the EU that added the 12th of april thing, so there would still be an option if the government doesn't win the vote (assuming it gets voted on at all). Seems like taking proactive action to me.
Yes. What the EU has done is to set critical dates for the decisions the UK needs to take. If they are going to accept May's deal at all, they need to do so by 29 March, and they will then have until 22 May to get themselves in shape to implement it. If they are not going to accept May's deal by 29 March, then they have until 12 April to come up with another strategy for avoiding no deal and getting whatever agreement they need from the EU for that strategy (including, presumably, agreement to a lengthy extension of the A50 period, but that does depend on what strategy they come up with). If they fail to come up with a plan, or fail to persuade the EU that it's a viable plan with a prospect of an acceptable (to the EU) outcome, then it's crash-out Brexit on 12 April, which will be incredibly painful for both the UK and the EU, but it's within the power of the UK to choose that option, and the EU won't attempt to prevent it.
  #604  
Old Yesterday, 10:17 AM
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So, since the answer to the question "What will the UK do wrt Brexit?" appears to be "crash out with a no-deal Brexit or something very close to it", what will the UK do after that comes to pass? The UK in terms of party politics, government actions, business decisions and society at large?
  #605  
Old Yesterday, 01:11 PM
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So, since the answer to the question "What will the UK do wrt Brexit?" appears to be "crash out with a no-deal Brexit or something very close to it", what will the UK do after that comes to pass? The UK in terms of party politics, government actions, business decisions and society at large?
And we're back to the answer to almost every such question since the referendum result was announced - nobody knows. How could we?

The government has been publishing a fair number of advice documents to assorted business and official audiences about how they should plan for a no-deal Brexit, but I have no idea how helpful they are. Someone has arranged for a leak of the process by which the government is planning to keep track of what would be happening day by day
, which sounds like the civil service trying to cover all bases. We know that trade deals to replace the current ones we have as part of the EU are nowhere near complete.

But we can't know for sure what the economic and sociopolitical consequences will be in the short to medium term (sounds like we'll be all right for bananas, so that's all good), let alone how that will play out in political consequences. So much would depend on timing: Theresa May will go sooner or later, but if things turn out awful, it may be that even the blue-rinse and blazer brigade in the Tory membership will see the light about voting for a rabid Brexiteer to replace her. Or maybe they won't. Or maybe the Tories will finallly split. Or maybe Corbyn's position will also be weakened to the point where the Momentum supporters will turn away from him. Or maybe not.

Last edited by PatrickLondon; Yesterday at 01:11 PM.
  #606  
Old Yesterday, 02:10 PM
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Well, Leave being leave, and all that, the Drop Dead option was what the people voted for. But take heart, a post-EU UK can always go elsewhere. A couple of suggestions:

The Canadian Union (CU, or "see you", get it?). Just like the EU, but with Canada. This could happen, but the UK must agree to become a colony of Canada's - hey, turnabout is fair play.

The Free United Commonwealth Kingdom Union (maybe someone can come up with an acronym). This will consist of the present UK, plus who knows? The welcome mat is out. I bet Greenland is ripe for a deal.
  #607  
Old Yesterday, 04:30 PM
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I don't know what exactly we Yanks can do to help, but like I said earlier, standing by to send Doper-specific C.A.R.E. packages if this shakes out like it might and y'all go through a (hopefully brief) period of shortages.
Given the state customs would be in, we'd best not send anything perishable.
  #608  
Old Yesterday, 05:39 PM
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I think what I can predict about all this absolute shit show is that this is legitimately the end of the United Kingdom if we crash out. I cannot see the UK surviving in the next 20 years in its current form based on what's been going on for the last three.

I guess the one positive is that if anyone complains about British colonialism anymore I can say that Britain doesn't exist and it was all in the past, because it will be.
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  #609  
Old Yesterday, 06:30 PM
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I think what I can predict about all this absolute shit show is that this is legitimately the end of the United Kingdom if we crash out. I cannot see the UK surviving in the next 20 years in its current form based on what's been going on for the last three.
What do you think the EU will do if Scotland leaves the UK? It would have to significantly bend the rules, at minimum, to allow it in, and an independent Scotland would fare even worse than the combined UK outside Europe.

As for Northern Ireland, are you thinking reunification? That's possible, but would be a literal bloody mess.

I don't think you're wrong, it's another good example of how everyone will be screwed over by Brexit.
  #610  
Old Yesterday, 06:36 PM
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What do you think the EU will do if Scotland leaves the UK? It would have to significantly bend the rules, at minimum, to allow it in, and an independent Scotland would fare even worse than the combined UK outside Europe.

As for Northern Ireland, are you thinking reunification? That's possible, but would be a literal bloody mess.

I don't think you're wrong, it's another good example of how everyone will be screwed over by Brexit.
I'm personally against Scottish independence, but yeah, the EU have already stipulated Scotland would be welcome. Scotland would be out of the EU anyway but have no choice, whereas after independence they would be fastracked in. As for NI, I considered it going that way already, Brexit just accelerated the process.
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  #611  
Old Yesterday, 07:46 PM
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If there is reunification as a result of Brexit, David Cameron shall go down in Irish legends as the Great Uniter of Ireland : )
  #612  
Old Today, 11:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Steophan View Post
What do you think the EU will do if Scotland leaves the UK? It would have to significantly bend the rules, at minimum, to allow it in, and an independent Scotland would fare even worse than the combined UK outside Europe.

As for Northern Ireland, are you thinking reunification? That's possible, but would be a literal bloody mess.

I don't think you're wrong, it's another good example of how everyone will be screwed over by Brexit.
You forgot Wales. Everybody else will, too, and it will always be England's last little colony. (The infrastructure, legal and physical, is way too complicated to undo at this point, I fear.)
  #613  
Old Today, 01:24 PM
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British politics is hard to follow: yesterday there were numerous articles about a massive rebellion against May in the Cabinet and how she was going to be forced out; today many of those mentioned as being involved are denying it.

Last edited by PastTense; Today at 01:25 PM.
  #614  
Old Today, 01:57 PM
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today many of those mentioned as being involved are denying it.
Well they would, wouldn't they? You only confirm a thing like that at the point of actually launching a decisive strike. Till then you maintain that everything in the garden is lovely: just as if you hear a PM say that this or that minister enjoys their full confidence, you know the skids are under the poor sap (because if they really were happy with them, it wouldn't need saying).
  #615  
Old Today, 02:14 PM
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Just to illustrate this principle, we've got a messy little scandal going on here in Canada. Rumors were swirling that a particular minister and the PM were fighting and that she had lost confidence in the PM.

The press asked the PM if the rumors were true and his reply was along the lines of: "Of course they're not true. We have the utmost respect for each other. Why, she's still in Cabinet, which means she supports me and my policies!"

She resigned the next day.

Ooops!
  #616  
Old Today, 03:00 PM
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Do I have the following right:

The hard Brexiters like the ERG threaten to split the Tory party if they don't get their way. They prefer holding out for their delusions/lies rather than any deal they're likely to get. So they're never going to agree and May will never really press on them to get on with her plan because she's afraid that doing so will split the party. Is that so? I'm not sure I get what's happening in those meeting rooms.

Which MPs/factions have been voting in favor of May's deal? Which MPs is May trying to get on board?
  #617  
Old Today, 07:14 PM
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You forgot Wales. Everybody else will, too, and it will always be England's last little colony. (The infrastructure, legal and physical, is way too complicated to undo at this point, I fear.)
Except, Wales voted for Brexit. You may want to believe that Wales has been dragged into this thing by the evil English, but Wales voted for it too.
  #618  
Old Today, 07:39 PM
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Except, Wales voted for Brexit. You may want to believe that Wales has been dragged into this thing by the evil English, but Wales voted for it too.
I'm not quite that naive, and that wasn't really my point, anyway: it was about the four countries that make up the UK.

By the way, nobody said anything about "the evil English." I don't think anyone subscribes to that cartoonish and silly view.
  #619  
Old Today, 07:48 PM
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"England's last little colony." Your words. Cartoonish.
  #620  
Old Today, 07:57 PM
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"England's last little colony." Your words. Cartoonish.
Ah, okay, you dislike the word "colony." That discussion seems like a hijack from the Brexit conversation, and not one I intended to launch. Let me know and I'll participate in new thread if you want, but I don't think it's appropriate here.
  #621  
Old Today, 08:23 PM
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Fair enough. I take it we agree that Wales is not actually a colony of England?

And therefore should accept the consequences of the Brexit that it voted for?

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  #622  
Old Today, 08:37 PM
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Fair enough. I take it we agree that Wales is not actually a colony of England?

And therefore should accept the consequences of the Brexit that it voted for?
As for the first point, no, I do not agree, and I am willing to discuss it in another thread.

As for the second, I don't think anyone in the UK should just accept the results of the 2016 referendum as if it were the will of the people. I really don't think geography (or ethnicity) is at issue here.

52% (rounded up) vs. 48%, 72% turnout, where clearly the costs and benefits of the decision were not well understood by either voters or campaigners, in a representative parliamentary democracy: in my view, it is criminally irresponsible of Parliament to merely reflect the results of that referendum without due consideration of its ramifications. If my life were about to be turned upside-down because half of my fellow countrymen were complete idiots...

oh, wait, I'm American, my people brought you Trump. Never mind.
  #623  
Old Today, 09:20 PM
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You think that Wales is a colony of England?
  #624  
Old Today, 09:37 PM
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Fair enough. I take it we agree that Wales is not actually a colony of England?

And therefore should accept the consequences of the Brexit that it voted for?
Well, it should accept responsibility for the choice that it made.

I don't think that translates simplistically into "accept the consequences of the choice that it made" if the obviously alternative, of reconsidering the choice that it made in the light of fuller information and a clearer understanding, is arbitrarily ruled out by those who think democracy, like a condom, is single-use only.
  #625  
Old Today, 09:55 PM
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"[Wales] should accept the resposibility for the choice it made."

Quite. That is all I am asking. Not that it was a wise choice. Simply that is was a choice that Wales made for itself, which cannot be pinned on anyone else, as Dr. Drake sought to do.
  #626  
Old Today, 10:07 PM
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"[Wales] should accept the resposibility for the choice it made."

Quite. That is all I am asking. Not that it was a wise choice. Simply that is was a choice that Wales made for itself, which cannot be pinned on anyone else, as Dr. Drake sought to do.
I really did not seek to do that. I'm trying not to hijack the thread here, but I need to make it clear: the relationship between Wales and England is a completely separate issue from how the two regions voted in the Brexit referendum. I never claimed nor thought that Wales voted to Remain (some areas did, which is also the case with England), and I never thought that their historical status as a militarily conquered nation governed from London with all that that entails gave them a special out that other regions of the UK would not have.

I apologize for even bringing it up: would you either take it to another thread or drop it, please? I'm not trying to be a jerk or avoid discussion, but this has been a good thread and I feel this is derailing it. I won't respond further here.
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