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Old 09-15-2018, 05:08 PM
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Let's be forthright about the tax cuts

I was taking stock of finances the other day and calculated that I have paid about $1500 less in taxes compared to this point last year. By the end of the year it could amount to a $2000 difference. I expect to earn within a few % either side of $100k this year.

$2000. Thanks GOP. It is difficult to say that this aspect of things is bad. However, I feel like media outlets like FOX aggressively seek to limit the conversation to this one single point. "The average American taxpayer is paying $x less in taxes! That's good for you, end of story, end of discussion, nothing more to see here!" This thread is not intended to gripe about what I think of as "the GOP Propaganda Machine," but I can't ignore it in this conversation. Cherry picking is de riguer, from FOX, from GOP Congress critters, from seemingly everyone who promotes the GOP. Any attempt to examine the true bigger picture gets strenuously beaten back, deflected away from, labeled as "liberal" something-or-other- a whole toolbox of rhetorical techniques are deployed to distract attention away from deeper analysis of this one bullet point. This is my personal view, and if it is wrong I hope you will convince me otherwise.

Because, as much as I like to have an extra for-real $2000 to spend every year, I am terribly uneasy about the latest round of tax cuts. At a time of general national economic well-being, the country is amassing $1 trillion a year in debt. I don't think this is a result of fairly comfortable people like me having $2000 in tax relief, I think it is largely due to people who make 10x or 100x or even 1000x more than I do, receiving much larger tax cuts as a share of their income. Why? I think it has nothing whatsoever to do with establishing justice, attending to the general welfare, achieving domestic tranquility- I think it is entirely because this claque of wealthy people donated to GOP candidates with instructions to cut taxes for the wealthy, regardless of the consequences. I think the will of the people has been subverted. I believe US government is not functioning as designed where this point is concerned- I believe it has been corrupted and captured by the wealthy for their own interests, to all of the rest of our eventual harm.

Point 1- The GOP lies bald facedly to justify the tax cuts. Steve Mnuchin said, "Not only will these tax cuts pay for themselves, they will reduce the debt." This was obviously hogwash before the fact, and the results confirm this. What you never hear out of the GOP Propaganda Machine is that, for GOP officials to look the public in the eye and simply lie about such consequential matters is to say, "Fuck you, American public. We do Not represent you as is our sworn Constitutional duty, we are appendages of the wealthy and there is nothing you can do about it. Look elsewhere than your government if you want a voice."

Point 2- The corporate tax cuts are overwhelmingly being used to fund stock buybacks and not to hire new workers or to generally grow businesses in a way that builds wealth for the public at large. Yes, there were some celebrated employee bonuses announced after the tax cuts, mostly one-time $1000 payouts, but how much do these bonuses amount to? The public is funding these tax cuts to the tune of $1 trillion a year, and the return on that in the form of increased pay and bonuses is- what? I don't think it amounts to even 1% of the value of the tax cuts. My position is that the GOP Propaganda Machine would have us believe that the corporate tax cuts are being funnelled to workers to the benefit of all, when in reality it makes the ultra wealthy even wealthier while leaving the rest of us a few crumbs. I believe the true message out of the GOP is, " Fuck you, American public. We are openly robbing you to benefit our wealthy sponsors, and if you think you have a voice in your own government, you are a sucker and a rube."

Point 3- The consequences of the tax cuts will be far worse than the benefits for people like me. This final point is the real thrust of this debate. I cannot see how $1 trillion deficits are justified under the current circumstances. We are not in a crisis we need stimulating out of, but rather the general economic placidity is hiding, for now, the eventual consequences of this huge amassing of debt.

Me, I am 45 years old. If there is going to be a bear market or even a crash, my outlook is to just keep plugging away with my 401k anyway since by the time I retire, the current economic cycle will have come and gone and more or less won't matter. If I were retiring Right Now, the stock market boost from these tax cuts would be a big help- anyone with stock investments is better off, for now. But how long can that last?

Consider- Baby Boomers are retiring, thousands a day. Selling their retirement accounts for cash puts downward pressure on the stock market. At the same time, increasing debt levels drive up interest rates, which also puts downward pressure on the market. When Treasury yields compete first with dividends, and eventually with growth returns, how can they fail to divert money away from stocks? I can't see how Boomer retirement plus rising interest rates can eventually result in anything other than a bear market, at best.

I see it as a massive scheme. As the debt rises to $20 trillion, maybe $30 trillion and beyond, well, ask yourself, who has the money to buy $30 trillion in bonds? It isn't me with my extra $2000 in tax cuts, it is the already super wealthy. As interest rates rise, the public obligation to bondholders will surpass $1 trillion PER YEAR in interest payments alone, payments from the public to mosly super wealthy bondholders.

>>>This is a long post, so let me repeat that. As interest rates rise, the public obligation to bondholders will surpass $1 trillion PER YEAR in interest payments alone, payments from the public to mostly super wealthy bondholders.

How will we endure an additional $1+ trillion in public liabilities? It is straight out of the GOP playbook: eliminate Social Security and Medicare. To fund massive public payments to the already super wealthy. And we come full-circle to my current $2000 tax cut. For $2000 a year, I believe I am going to be forced to forfeit benefits that far, far exceed that. Social Security alone amounts to close to $2000- a MONTH. Medicare? Who knows, but I do know that I will no longer have employer provided health insurance after I retire, and private insurance after Medicare is gone will cost a helluva lot more than $2000 per year. I won't come out ahead- the consequences of these tax cuts will be a Huge liability.

Me, you, all of us are expected to be too stupid to notice. I believe the translation of the GOP tax cuts into English amounts to, "Fuck you, American public. We have captured your government, we have suppressed your voice, and soon we will be transferring your benefits to our wealthy benefactors. Because they paid us to. You are all too much of a crowd of rubes to do anything but swallow the lie and get robbed. Vote GOP, suckers."
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Old 09-15-2018, 05:16 PM
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What, you mean the republican party isn't pushing tax cuts (primarily for the super-rich) because it's sound macroeconomic policy?

Now would be an excellent time for various anglophone countries to open their borders to any and all skilled Americans interested in living there.
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Old 09-15-2018, 05:16 PM
Ravenman Ravenman is offline
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The economy is booming, and the deficit is going up very substantially. Of course the tax cuts cannot pay for themselves.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.blo...pping-forecast

As you say, just wait until the next downturn - it probably isnít that far off - and we will see how much the debt is affected by the tax cuts.

But I donít think thereís any deeper master plan here. Trump and congressional Republicans are incapable of planning a buffet, to say nothing of fiscal policy several years down the road. They are the party of instant gratification: youíll find them all eating raw pancake batter because they have no value for the actual goodness of eating real pancakes. It just takes too long.
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Old 09-15-2018, 05:29 PM
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Are you aware that the withholding tables under the new tax law are reportedly under-withholding for many people. You may be in for a surprise next April.

I'd give you a link, but somehow editing here is not working right for me at all to allow me to cut and paste.
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Old 09-15-2018, 05:53 PM
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Are you aware that the withholding tables under the new tax law are reportedly under-withholding for many people. You may be in for a surprise next April.
I was not aware of that. Nice- smoke and mirrors on top if lies.
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Old 09-15-2018, 06:11 PM
Translucent Daydream Translucent Daydream is online now
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What does that mean for people like me when the downturn starts? We were ten bucks short on rent, if it wasn't for the neighbor I don't know what we would do.

I guess my question is when is this downturn coming do you think? What is going to cause it? The bank my wife used to work for is predicting a downturn within 6 to 18 months from now, but it's kind of vague at least to me what causes it. They are in full prep mode for I though. They are a medium sized regional bank.
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Old 09-15-2018, 06:42 PM
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I was not aware of that. Nice- smoke and mirrors on top if lies.
Try this calculator to get a pretty good estimate of your taxes. http://taxplancalculator.com

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Old 09-15-2018, 06:50 PM
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What does that mean for people like me when the downturn starts?
I donít know - you could be fine. Or you could have your hours cut, or lose your job entirely.


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I guess my question is when is this downturn coming do you think? What is going to cause it? The bank my wife used to work for is predicting a downturn within 6 to 18 months from now, but it's kind of vague at least to me what causes it. They are in full prep mode for I though. They are a medium sized regional bank.
If anyone knows when it is coming, they are probably lying - either to themselves or you. But economies just donít expand forever, and ours has been expanding for about nine years now.
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Old 09-15-2018, 07:23 PM
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But I donít think thereís any deeper master plan here. Trump and congressional Republicans are incapable of planning a buffet, to say nothing of fiscal policy several years down the road. They are the party of instant gratification: youíll find them all eating raw pancake batter because they have no value for the actual goodness of eating real pancakes. It just takes too long.
I disagree with this kind of under-estimation of the GOP. For example, this whole jack-up-the-deficit plan goes back to Reagan. FOX had its genesis in the aftermath of Nixon's resignation- there was a theory that the media then was just "too liberal" and if there had been more pro-GOP media coverage, things may have turned out differently. What were they going to promote? It isn't illegal when the president does it? He's a crook but also a really nice guy? I don't know, it isn't my theory, but various interests ran with it and the result is FOX news itself. That's almost 50 years in the making. Limbaugh has also been spewing inaccurate, propagandistic hate for decades.

And the GOP revealed themselves during the Obama administration, if it wasn't already obvious before that. Remember, during the financial crisis, how they obstructed stimulus and other solutions because they were in such a tizzy over the deficit? Obama cared about the deficit, too, but the Only solution the GOP will allow is "entitlement reform", their word for cutting or eliminating Social Security and Medicare. To them, that's what the debt is for, any other solution gets tarred as "liberal" or "socialist" or what-have-you. These views come from my own observations, plus a little Krugman:
Quote:
efforts to fight unemployment had to deal with a bizarre Beltway consensus that despite high unemployment and record low interest rates, debt, not jobs, was the real problem.

But the most important reason the great slump went on so long was scorched-earth Republican opposition to anything and everything that might have helped offset the fallout from the housing bust.

When I say ďscorched earth,Ē Iím not being hyperbolic. Letís not forget that in the summer of 2011 Republicans in Congress threatened to provoke a new financial crisis by refusing to raise the debt limit. Their goal was to blackmail President Barack Obama into cutting spending at a time when unemployment was still 9 percent and U.S. real borrowing costs were close to zero.

Now, Republicans claimed that their opposition to anything that might limit mass unemployment was driven by a deep commitment to fiscal responsibility. But this was complete hypocrisy ó something that was obvious to anyone who looked at the actual content of G.O.P. budget proposals, which gave smoke and mirrors a bad name. You had to be extremely credulous to take fake G.O.P. deficit hawkery seriously; unfortunately, there were a lot of credulous pundits out there.

Anyway, the events of the past two years have made the reality of what happened crystal clear. The very same politicians who piously declared that America couldnít afford to spend money supporting jobs in the face of a deep, prolonged slump just rammed through a huge, deficit-exploding tax cut for corporations and the wealthy even though the economy is currently near full employment. No, they havenít abandoned their commitment to fiscal responsibility; they never cared about deficits in the first place.

So if you want to understand why the great slump that began in 2008 went on so long, blighting so many American lives, the answer is politics. Specifically, policy failed because cynical, bad-faith Republicans were willing to sacrifice millions of jobs rather than let anything good happen to the economy while a Democrat sat in the White House.
I'll grant you that Trump is mostly incompetent, but by and large I think the GOP has a long-term plan.
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Old 09-15-2018, 07:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Translucent Daydream View Post
I guess my question is when is this downturn coming do you think? What is going to cause it? The bank my wife used to work for is predicting a downturn within 6 to 18 months from now, but it's kind of vague at least to me what causes it. They are in full prep mode for I though. They are a medium sized regional bank.
When? I don't know. Me and your bank are not the only ones who think it is coming, though. See Goldman Bear-Market Risk Indicator at Highest Since 1969: Chart

What will cause it? Depends if we are talking about a recession or a bear market. I think a bear market will be driven by at least two things: a wave of retirees selling their holdings and rising Treasury yields. Think about it: a 3% sure-thing yield from a bond is nice, but while stocks continue to go up, a lot of people are willing to take their chances for a bigger return on stocks. But what about at 5%? 7%? The higher the sure-thing yield on bonds, the more people are attracted to them and away from the stock market. And yields are all but guaranteed to rise- with the current explosion in deficits the government has to issue many more bonds, which puts upward pressure on the yield to attract buyers.

Who knows if there will be a turn in the business cycle that leads to a recession. Maybe a crash in China, maybe all these fires and hurricanes will have an effect, maybe people will just lose confidence and stop spending money. There are a couple of factors already baked in though, so a big surprise might be enough to tip the balance.
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Old 09-15-2018, 07:46 PM
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Another important question to ask when you hear talk about how the average taxpayer got a tax cut is who that average taxpayer is. It's really easy to rig the figures with an average. Give one guy a million dollar tax cut and raise taxes ten thousand dollars for ninety-nine other people. Then report that you gave everyone a hundred dollar tax cut - on average.
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Old 09-15-2018, 09:13 PM
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I disagree with this kind of under-estimation of the GOP. For example, this whole jack-up-the-deficit plan goes back to Reagan...

And the GOP revealed themselves during the Obama administration, if it wasn't already obvious before that.
Sure, forty years ago Republicans could think their way out of a wet paper bag. Sixty years ago, too.

People like Trump, Jim Jordan, Steve King, etc. are barely above Ruprecht-levels of needing a cork on their fork to avoid severe injury to themselves. They arenít Bobby Fischer, they are Forrest Gump, achieving office despite no qualifications.

Thatís quite different than people like Gingrich, DeLay, Rove, and so on who are actually politically erudite and quite dangerous.
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Old 09-15-2018, 11:30 PM
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The economy is booming, and the deficit is going up very substantially. Of course the tax cuts cannot pay for themselves.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.blo...pping-forecast
If you read you're own cite it shows revenue is up, not down: Federal spending rose by 7%, outpacing revenue gains of 1%.

We're taking in record revenue: The U.S. took in $510 billion in receipts in April and spent $296 billion, leaving the Treasury with a record monthly surplus of $214 billion. The prior record, set in April 2001, was about $190 billion.
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But I donít think thereís any deeper master plan here. Trump and congressional Republicans are incapable of planning a buffet, to say nothing of fiscal policy several years down the road.
The last president doubled the deficit of every President before him COMBINED.

Let me refresh your memory of what Obama said about his predecessorsí debt increase: Itís irresponsible, itís unpatriotic
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Old 09-16-2018, 12:40 AM
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If you read you're own cite it shows revenue is up, not down: Federal spending rose by 7%, outpacing revenue gains of 1%.

We're taking in record revenue: The U.S. took in $510 billion in receipts in April and spent $296 billion, leaving the Treasury with a record monthly surplus of $214 billion. The prior record, set in April 2001, was about $190 billion.
<snip>
I don't think that cite proves your point. The first line of that cherry says
Quote:
But budgetary shortfall is growing over the longer term
and it goes on to say
Quote:
Tax receipts poured in during April, when tax returns and certain taxpayersí quarterly estimated payments are due.

Big picture: While the surplus helped the governmentís coffers for the month, the longer-term trend is going the other way. The Treasury said the budget deficit for the fiscal year to date is running ahead of the year-ago period, at $385 billion compared to $344 billion. That rising tide of red ink jibes with higher deficits estimated by the CBO, which forecasts a shortfall of $804 billion for the current fiscal year, and even higher deficits later, spurred on by the tax-code overhaul passed late last year.
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Old 09-16-2018, 01:53 AM
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Revenue is still on track to increase. Cite

We don't have a tax revenue problem, we have a tax spending problem. It's being driving by a series of stop-gap budget approvals instead of going through the full budget process.
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Old 09-16-2018, 01:54 AM
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The conspiracy theorist in me thinks the GOP fully expects to lose in 2020 and hence is timing these tax cuts so as to trigger a recession quite soon after a Democrat assumes the presidency in Jan. 2021, which will crater that Democrat's approval and pave the way for a Republican return to the White House in 2024.

The GOP wouldn't mind a recession itself as long as the timing is right.
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Old 09-16-2018, 03:17 AM
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Well, I'm not going to make $100k this year. I'm not in the money. I'm a warehouse worker who makes just about as much as it takes to pay my bills. I have no 401k, I own no stocks. My insurance (through work) is prohibitively expensive for the lowest possible coverage, which is no fun when you're 53 and you're starting to fall apart, and I'll probably have to pay more in taxes next year because I can no longer claim my federal taxes on my state return. So, fuck the GOP and their "tax reform," I hope they all choke on their fucking caviar.

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Old 09-16-2018, 03:24 AM
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... I can no longer claim my federal taxes on my state return....
Er, the other way around ...
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Old 09-16-2018, 07:22 AM
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The last president doubled the deficit of every President before him COMBINED.

Let me refresh your memory of what Obama said about his predecessorsí debt increase: Itís irresponsible, itís unpatriotic
Oh my. I thought we've rebutted this error before. I see why the Board's motto is "It's taking longer than we thought."

Let me first ask Magiver if he remembers the great Y2K crisis; the way key software all over the planet suddenly stopped working on 1 January, 2000? (Bear with me; I know the thread isn't about Y2K ó give me more credit than that.)

You don't remember that catastrophe? That's because it didn't happen.

Nathan Muir provides a hint about how that crisis was averted.

And do you remember the staggering Depression that lasted from 2008 to 2017, with bank closings and the stock market taking decades to recover? No? That didn't happen either. Instead a massive stimulus was passed led by GWB (though naturally the spending occurred during Obama's term). It took only six years for the stock market to set a new all-time record. Under Obama the stock market either Tripled or Quadrupled depending on which average you use. That's Tripled and Quadrupled with a T and a Q respectively.

Most laughable of all was how the R's characterized the "Obama Stimulus." At R insistence, almost $1 trillion of the package took the form of tax cuts but ó although every tax cut is as sweet as honey to the R's ó even the tax-cut had to be lumped with Obama's dastardly Islamo-socialist stimulus to make it appear onerous.

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The last president doubled the deficit of every President before him COMBINED.

Let me refresh your memory of what Obama said about his predecessorsí debt increase: Itís irresponsible, itís unpatriotic
Do facts matter? Look at this chart to see that, despite the Bush financial panic of 2008, deficits decreased almost every year of Obama's terms; and have increased in every Trump year.

Fighting ignorance is hard work, and that's my contribution for now. If someone wants to contest the facts, please first tell us whether your elementary school math course was based on "Common Core" or something else.
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Old 09-16-2018, 08:00 AM
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The last president doubled the deficit of every President before him COMBINED.
So... What, it's not okay when Obama does it, but somehow Trump does it even worse, it's fine? This thread, last I checked, is about the tax cuts implemented by the Trump administration. If you'd like to talk about the Obama administration's deficits, may I recommend your own thread?
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Old 09-16-2018, 09:16 AM
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If you read you're own cite it shows revenue is up, not down: Federal spending rose by 7%, outpacing revenue gains of 1%.

We're taking in record revenue: The U.S. took in $510 billion in receipts in April and spent $296 billion, leaving the Treasury with a record monthly surplus of $214 billion. The prior record, set in April 2001, was about $190 billion.
Typical Republican cherry picking: ďThis one month was GREAT in this mostly meaningless way, so the future is SO ROSY! And disco record sales from 1976-1978 were up 125%, so if this trend continues..... ayyyyyy!Ē

Fact is that the cost of the tax cuts is estimated to increase the deficit by about $2.3 trillion, and the economic benefits are maybe $500 billion, meaning your tax cut is raising the debt by about $1.6 trillion. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53743

Quote:
The last president doubled the deficit of every President before him COMBINED.
Yeah, the deficit is going to go up in a major recession. And Trump is benefiting by inheriting an economy that wasnít hungstrung by stupid ideas, like balancing the budget is more important that getting people back to work.

Quote:
The last president doubled the deficit of every President before him COMBINED. Let me refresh your memory of what Obama said about his predecessorsí debt increase: Itís irresponsible, itís unpatriotic"]Let me refresh your memory of what Obama said about his predecessorsí debt increase[/URL]: Itís irresponsible, itís unpatriotic
Obama proposed to pay for his spending. Bush and Trump do not.

This is exactly why fiscal conservatism should not be thought to be policies that favor balancing the budget, because Obama did continuously propose measures to bring the deficit down, but conservatives rejected them.

Instead, fiscal conservatism is actually a policy that favors tax cuts no matter what the circumstances with no regard for deficits.
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Old 09-16-2018, 10:38 AM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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Er, the other way around ...
How much did you pay in state taxes last year? You know you can still claim the first $10,000, right? I would be surprised if you pay more than that.
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Old 09-16-2018, 10:54 AM
F. U. Shakespeare F. U. Shakespeare is offline
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We're taking in record revenue: The U.S. took in $510 billion in receipts in April and spent $296 billion, leaving the Treasury with a record monthly surplus of $214 billion. The prior record, set in April 2001, was about $190 billion.
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Typical Republican cherry picking: ďThis one month was GREAT in this mostly meaningless way, so the future is SO ROSY! And disco record sales from 1976-1978 were up 125%, so if this trend continues..... ayyyyyy!Ē
I love it! Income taxes are due in April --> we take in "record revenue".

Let's see, I get paid every two weeks. But if, on my next payday, you were to ask me what my salary is, I could report my two-week paycheck as my daily rate of pay, thereby giving myself a 1000% raise!
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Old 09-16-2018, 11:21 AM
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How much did you pay in state taxes last year? You know you can still claim the first $10,000, right? I would be surprised if you pay more than that.
This.
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Old 09-16-2018, 11:38 AM
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I love it! Income taxes are due in April --> we take in "record revenue".

Let's see, I get paid every two weeks. But if, on my next payday, you were to ask me what my salary is, I could report my two-week paycheck as my daily rate of pay, thereby giving myself a 1000% raise!
There there, he reported a factual fact, didn't he? Some people like steak, some like lobster; some like statistics that inform, some like statistics that spin; some like baseball, some like football. America prides itself on such diversity.

But since you had to go and brag about your income, let me mention that last night for a few minutes I was experiencing orgasms at the rate of 200 per day, 1400 per week. Tiring.
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Old 09-16-2018, 03:17 PM
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How much did you pay in state taxes last year? You know you can still claim the first $10,000, right? I would be surprised if you pay more than that.
Also, it depends on whether his state splits the tax burden between sales and income taxes, or does just one or the other. Because somewhere along the way, the GOP decided that you could deduct either sales or income taxes, but not both.
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Old 09-16-2018, 05:55 PM
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If you read you're own cite it shows revenue is up, not down: Federal spending rose by 7%, outpacing revenue gains of 1%.
By the way, you know the top item contributing to the increase in spending?

Interest on the debt.

It grew by 50% more than collections grew on withholding on individual income taxes. And, corporate tax revenues declined by like 25% more than interest payments increased - thatís a double whammy.

Now thatís Republican fiscal values right there: cut taxes in order to pay Wall Street more to finance our debt.
  #28  
Old 09-16-2018, 06:26 PM
TimeWinder TimeWinder is offline
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How much did you pay in state taxes last year? You know you can still claim the first $10,000, right? I would be surprised if you pay more than that.
No, but I paid _much_ more than that in property and state taxes combined, which is what the cap is on. As do most people here.
  #29  
Old 09-16-2018, 06:34 PM
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Also, it depends on whether his state splits the tax burden between sales and income taxes, or does just one or the other. Because somewhere along the way, the GOP decided that you could deduct either sales or income taxes, but not both.
I believe Jack Batty said that he was a warehouse laborer who just makes enough to pay his bills.

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Originally Posted by irs
If you file a Form 1040, and itemize deductions on Schedule A, you have the option of claiming either state and local income taxes or state and local sales taxes Ö
His description of his situation is not consistent with the sort of person who would itemize. It is just ever so delightful when a great tax deduction is made available to the people who can go to the extra effort to make use of it, which is usually not the majority of taxpayers.
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Old 09-16-2018, 07:25 PM
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Revenue is still on track to increase. Cite

We don't have a tax revenue problem, we have a tax spending problem. It's being driving by a series of stop-gap budget approvals instead of going through the full budget process.
The 2018 estimate is only 20 billion dollars more than the 2017 number, which is a decrease when inflation is included. With lower unemployment (more income taxes) and a good economy, revenue should be going up a lot more than this.

And you should read your cite - which says that revenues should increase during times of prosperity. Tax cuts are better during recessions, not now.

Saying we have a spending problem is shorthand for saying, once the recession does happen, that we can't afford enhanced unemployment and food stamps because - *gasp* - we have a deficit. Wonder how that happened.
  #31  
Old 09-17-2018, 04:52 AM
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Also, it depends on whether his state splits the tax burden between sales and income taxes, or does just one or the other. Because somewhere along the way, the GOP decided that you could deduct either sales or income taxes, but not both.
That tax rule seems peculiar. Is there a logical reason for it? (Other than the obvious "Set the nerds to work figuring out what particular rules will screw 'blue' states and 'blue' voters.")
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  #32  
Old 09-17-2018, 05:23 AM
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My tax returns (and ignorance of the minutia) besides, it doesn't take away from the rest of my post. President Trump is doing nothing for us ham 'n' eggers and tax cuts for millionaires isn't helping. Our only hope is for wages to keep up with inflation which works directly against the Republican plan.

Last edited by Jack Batty; 09-17-2018 at 05:24 AM.
  #33  
Old 09-17-2018, 08:44 AM
Shodan Shodan is online now
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I certainly agree that the deficit is unsustainably high, and should never have been allowed to get, or remain, this high. What is your prediction of what the deficit will be if Dems get control of the House? All spending bills originate there.

Regards,
Shodan
  #34  
Old 09-17-2018, 08:49 AM
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I certainly agree that the deficit is unsustainably high, and should never have been allowed to get, or remain, this high. What is your prediction of what the deficit will be if Dems get control of the House? All spending bills originate there.

Regards,
Shodan
Judging by the pattern set by Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump? Barring a massive recession or a new ground war/occupation, lower than now. The idea that republicans care about the deficit and democrats don't may have made sense at one point, but by now anyone who still believes that just hasn't been paying attention.
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  #35  
Old 09-17-2018, 08:50 AM
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By how much will it be lower, and how will that be brought about?

Regards,
Shodan
  #36  
Old 09-17-2018, 08:52 AM
F. U. Shakespeare F. U. Shakespeare is offline
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No, but I paid _much_ more than that in property and state taxes combined, which is what the cap is on. As do most people here.
So do I. But assuming that calculator is right, I might actually pay less federal income tax this year. I had previously estimated it to go up.

The reason is that the rates have been slightly lowered. I admit that I lost track of the details of the rates and brackets as they were being negotiated.

The calculator recommends I take the increased standard deduction rather than itemize.

One caveat on the calculator: it calculates state income tax for you, and Maryland (along with, I assume, some other states) has a highly variable tax rate, depending on what county you live in.
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Old 09-17-2018, 08:57 AM
F. U. Shakespeare F. U. Shakespeare is offline
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Another aside is that me getting a tax cut doesn't change the point made in the OP, that tax cuts for the well-off (which I'm apparently considered) aren't justified if they increase the deficit.
  #38  
Old 09-17-2018, 09:29 AM
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I certainly agree that the deficit is unsustainably high, and should never have been allowed to get, or remain, this high. What is your prediction of what the deficit will be if Dems get control of the House? All spending bills originate there.
The deficit will go up, because the Republican White House will reject any attempt to raise revenue.

On the other hand, if the Republicans retained control of Congress, the deficit would probably go up even faster, as evidenced by the rumors that they are looking at another round of tax cuts.

Last edited by Ravenman; 09-17-2018 at 09:29 AM.
  #39  
Old 09-17-2018, 09:32 AM
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My tax returns (and ignorance of the minutia) besides, it doesn't take away from the rest of my post. ...
Here is your previous post in it's entirety:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Batty View Post
Well, I'm not going to make $100k this year. I'm not in the money. I'm a warehouse worker who makes just about as much as it takes to pay my bills. I have no 401k, I own no stocks. My insurance (through work) is prohibitively expensive for the lowest possible coverage, which is no fun when you're 53 and you're starting to fall apart, and I'll probably have to pay more in taxes next year because I can no longer claim my federal taxes on my state return. So, fuck the GOP and their "tax reform," I hope they all choke on their fucking caviar.
If you're conceding that the "I'll probably have to pay more next year in taxes next year because I can no longer claim my federal taxes on my state return" portion was incorrect (and it sounds like you are), what's left? A bit of personal history, an admission that ObamaCare didn't fix the rising cost of health insurance, and "fuck the GOP"? Alrighty then.

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 09-17-2018 at 09:33 AM.
  #40  
Old 09-17-2018, 10:45 AM
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Standard deductions are up, but personal exemptions are zeroed. For me, that's a wash.

Meanwhile, the Republicans have added a trillion and a half to the debt. Ain't you proud?
  #41  
Old 09-17-2018, 11:30 AM
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Meanwhile, the Republicans have added a trillion and a half to the debt. Ain't you proud?
I wonder how many conservatives on this board think that there's an actual possibility that the self-described "king of debt" will just renegotiate all the debt he's racking up during his presidency.
  #42  
Old 09-17-2018, 12:52 PM
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Or declare bankruptcy and stiff all his creditors, like he does with his casinos.

But he thinks all he has to do is just print more money, like some shithole dictator.
  #43  
Old 09-17-2018, 01:07 PM
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If you're conceding that the "I'll probably have to pay more next year in taxes next year because I can no longer claim my federal taxes on my state return" portion was incorrect (and it sounds like you are), what's left? A bit of personal history, an admission that ObamaCare didn't fix the rising cost of health insurance, and "fuck the GOP"? Alrighty then.
I'm uncertain what my tax bill will be next year, but I know what my insurance premiums are (more than they were the year before) and I don't blame "Obamacare not fixing it," for that is a simplistic and well-poisoned argument in the first place. Yes I blame the Republicans, who Trump leads, for fucking up health care and Obama being stymied in his efforts by those very Republicans reinforces my points. But yeah, fuck the GOP works for me as a general motto, if you got nothing else going for you.
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Old 09-17-2018, 01:26 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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I'm uncertain what my tax bill will be next year...
This seems to be the only portion of your post that relates to a forthright discussion about the tax cuts. I too am "uncertain", but I suspect that it'll be smaller, at least as a % of my income, than it was last year. This pleases me, so fuck the Dems.
  #45  
Old 09-17-2018, 01:49 PM
Shodan Shodan is online now
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The deficit will go up, because the Republican White House will reject any attempt to raise revenue.
If the Dems take over the House, and the deficit goes up, that would mean that they will be increasing spending. If the GOP blocks them from raising taxes, and they don't spend more, the deficit will remain the same, not go up.

Actually, a spending freeze would reduce the deficit because revenues tend to increase, all other things being equal (they never are).

If we wanted to reduce the deficit, Dems would agree to cut spending and GOP-ers to increase taxes. So we won't reduce the deficit.

Regards,
Shodan
  #46  
Old 09-17-2018, 01:50 PM
Ravenman Ravenman is offline
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This seems to be the only portion of your post that relates to a forthright discussion about the tax cuts. I too am "uncertain", but I suspect that it'll be smaller, at least as a % of my income, than it was last year. This pleases me, so fuck the Dems.
Yeah, fuck our children too. Those suckers will have to pay for Americans wanting the government to spend more and not pay for it. Intergenerational theft is the best!
  #47  
Old 09-17-2018, 01:54 PM
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By how much will it be lower, and how will that be brought about?
By having a Democrat in the WH. Leslie Lynch King Jr. was the last ďRepublicanĒ President who maintained a more-or-less level deficit. Since President 666, a R in the WH has boosted red ink, while having a D in the WH has tended to result in moves toward balance. A change in Congress may make a difference, but history does not support it. I blame Nobel Prize winner Milt Friedman, his Chicago School ideology and Art Laffer's cocktail-napkin scribbling. Amongst others.
  #48  
Old 09-17-2018, 02:04 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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Yeah, fuck our children too. Those suckers will have to pay for Americans wanting the government to spend more and not pay for it. Intergenerational theft is the best!
I'm technically a Millenial, and something of a law-and-order Republican, so I'm not a fan of intergenerational theft, but most of it (at least what has already been accomplished or planned) predates the Trump tax cuts.

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 09-17-2018 at 02:05 PM.
  #49  
Old 09-17-2018, 02:05 PM
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If the GOP blocks them from raising taxes, and they don't spend more, the deficit will remain the same, not go up.
That's hypothetically true. But it's about as likely to happen as having the national debt paid off by the money fairy delivered gold bars.

Republicans often say they're going to cut government spending. But they never do it. Look at Reagan. He said cutting down the size of government was one of the main goals of his administration. But the amount of money spend by the government increased every year he was President.

Democrats spend government money and pay for it with taxes. Republicans spend government money and borrow money to pay for it.
  #50  
Old 09-17-2018, 02:09 PM
Ravenman Ravenman is offline
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I'm technically a Millenial, and something of a law-and-order Republican, so I'm not a fan of intergenerational theft, but most of it (at least what has already been accomplished or planned) predates the Trump tax cuts.
And the Trump tax cuts help, how? Are they:

1. Making the situation better
2. Making the situation worse
3. There's no difference to the situation

ETA: Further, let's say Republicans propose another unpaid for tax cut that will result in you taking more money home. Is your response still, "I've got mine, jack, fuck the Democrats?"

Last edited by Ravenman; 09-17-2018 at 02:10 PM.
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