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  #51  
Old 02-29-2020, 01:43 PM
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Re: market timing

If the advice is, consistently, to buy today instead of tomorrow, then I agree that is not market timing.
  #52  
Old 02-29-2020, 01:48 PM
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Originally Posted by octopus View Post
Inflation eats cash value. And you’d recommend 10 years of savings!! Before investing in a 401k, 403b, or equivalent? Why?
That's now how I read initially it. The money I intend to spend in the next decade is being earned today and over the next decade. The money I'm putting into my 401k is money I intent to spend in 30 years. If I were retiring tomorrow, a lot more of it would be in cash and bonds than is reflected by my current allocation.

But that last sentence is damning:
Quote:
When you have ten years worth of spending in those vehicles it's time for index funds.
Goes to show the value of free advice on message boards.
  #53  
Old 02-29-2020, 02:36 PM
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Originally Posted by octopus View Post
... Anyways, Humpty Dumptyism while fun in the Pit and among the ATMB rulers is actually harmful when applied to real life investing....
What are we arguing about?

Although wagers are no longer allowed here at SMDB, suppose hypothetically we were to fashion a bet on "who is right" here. I challenge you to construct and present a very carefully written unambiguous sentence which you think embodies a truth that discriminates between your view and mine; i.e. a sentence to which you would answer True and I would answer False (or vice versa).

Note that I offered no opinion on whether Buy, Hold or Sell is the proper policy right now; my comment was about the meaning of "Market Timing" and how views on that timing might be applied right now.

Maybe we're in agreement, and are just in a semantic trap.
  #54  
Old 02-29-2020, 02:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Voyager View Post
No single stock is safe....
I know someone who worked at IBM. He had most of his 401K in IBM stock, which used to be safe. He got laid off at the same time IBM stock tanked, so he was doubly screwed.
Who in the thread was recommending NOT to diversify? It certainly wasn't anyone laying out a "safer" policy.

And the principles of diversification mean that if your career success is dependent on the success of Industry X or Company X, them your stock portfolio should focus on Industries Y and Z for some Y≠X and Z≠X. This is in Chapter 1, I think.
  #55  
Old 02-29-2020, 04:39 PM
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Originally Posted by octopus View Post
Inflation eats cash value. And you’d recommend 10 years of savings!! Before investing in a 401k, 403b, or equivalent? Why?
No, cash and bonds go in a 401k, and I'd recommend money that you don't need for ten years, not ten years worth of savings go into stocks. If you're steadily employed and have six months worth of spending (not income, but spending) in an emergency fund then start your investments.

There are three kinds of money, short term, that you need in the next two years, medium term that you need in years three through ten, and long term that you don't need for a decade. If you make more than you spend and are confident enough in your income you don't need any more than the emergency fund to go 100% in a stock index fund.

If you have to worry about periods of unemployment and having to tap your savings to make your monthly nut you need to have enough capital so you can weather a long recession without having to sell in a downturn. Hell, I've been through six recessions in the last 50 years and I never had to worry about having to sell my stocks for a pittance because I always waited it out.
  #56  
Old 02-29-2020, 04:46 PM
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I would say the chances of a recession are pretty high. We're barely weeks into an outbreak that has barely made landfall in most major economies outside the United States, and we've already seen some pretty wild stock market rides.

What the bears are predicting is industrial supply chain disruption. What they're also going to start confronting as well is the reality that people are going to hunker down inside their homes to try and wait this disease out. And that means a major loss of consumption. So until health agencies can develop better testing and some vaccines, they're going to struggle to gain the confidence of ordinary people, which means that a recession is inevitable - and I think we've not seen the worst of the corrections.

What is less certain - and in my mind more ominous thanks to some of the idiots at the controls - is how governments are going to react, and what the consequences of *that* will be. When the president of the United States claims that a global pandemic is a Democrat hoax, a conspiracy by his political opponents to bring him down, I think you already have your answer.

Politicizing the response was a disaster for China, and it will be a disaster for the United States if this disease doesn't somehow slow down on its own.
  #57  
Old 02-29-2020, 05:27 PM
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stupid double post

Last edited by Bill Door; 02-29-2020 at 05:28 PM.
  #58  
Old 02-29-2020, 05:33 PM
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I moved my IRA into cash last November. I missed a little on the upside, but saved a bundle in the coronavirus selloff. Nobody can time the market perfectly, but I had a feeling something like this was coming. Too much irrational exuberance.
  #59  
Old 02-29-2020, 05:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Ruken View Post
That's now how I read initially it. The money I intend to spend in the next decade is being earned today and over the next decade. The money I'm putting into my 401k is money I intent to spend in 30 years. If I were retiring tomorrow, a lot more of it would be in cash and bonds than is reflected by my current allocation.

But that last sentence is damning:
Goes to show the value of free advice on message boards.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Door
Any money you expect to spend in the next decade should be in either cash or bonds. When you have ten years worth of spending in those vehicles it's time for index funds.
And I stand by that. Goes to show the value of reading the entire post. If you don't expect to spend anything from those investments of course it can immediately go into stocks.
  #60  
Old 03-08-2020, 10:23 PM
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Dow futures implied open Monday down 1300 points. Oil plunged 30% to $30 a barrel.

This looks like free fall people.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/oil-...war-fears.html
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