View Poll Results: How long will the US government shutdown last?
Less than 1 week 3 2.86%
1 week to 1 month 28 26.67%
1 to 2 months 44 41.90%
2 to 6 months 22 20.95%
6 months to 1 year 3 2.86%
1 to 2 years 4 3.81%
2 years or more 1 0.95%
Voters: 105. You may not vote on this poll

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  #51  
Old 01-10-2019, 03:13 PM
Steve MB Steve MB is offline
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One might assume that the Republicans might be more liberated since the shellacking they took in November, but that didn't affect the Senate Republicans, which still has a favorable map for the time being.
They have a somewhat favorable balance of votes for the time being. The map they're looking at in 2020 is horrible for them (Reps defending 21 seats with several vulnerable; Dems defending 12 seats with only one (AL) real weak spot).

That said, the key issue is that they're more afraid of primary challenges from the even-crazier fringe of their party then they are of the general election.
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  #52  
Old 01-10-2019, 03:27 PM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
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The map they're looking at in 2020 is horrible for them (Reps defending 21 seats with several vulnerable; Dems defending 12 seats with only one (AL) real weak spot).
The Dems have a chance to win back the Senate in 2020, but it's not wildly better than the chance they had this year.

Suppose Doug Jones gets defeated in Alabama, but Susan Collins and Cory Gardner lose to Dems in Maine and Colorado. That gives the Dems 48 seats. Assuming they win the Presidency, they still need two more.

According to 538, every other potential Senate pickup has a partisan lean of at least R+5: NC (R+5.1), IA (R+5.8), AZ (R+9.3), GA (R+11.8), AK (R+14.9), TX (R+16.9), MT (R+17.7). I'm not saying it can't be done, and the odds are better than last year, but they're still on the wrong side of 50-50.
  #53  
Old 01-10-2019, 03:32 PM
Hari Seldon Hari Seldon is offline
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I chose a week to a month. In two weeks, air traffic will cease and that will be the signal for the repugs to revolt. Funs fun, but now business suffers and that is insufferable.
  #54  
Old 01-10-2019, 04:59 PM
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Quoth asahi:


Don't expect Trump to pay attention to polls on this issue. He's pleasing his fan base, which are the only people who care. If federal workers quit, well, his base won't care. Remember, these are the people who campaign on making government smaller - not necessarily smaller through financial attribution, but they'll take what they can get. This could go on until there's a noticeable economic impact.
Republicans don't want small government. They want fantasy small government. They want an end to all of the money that goes to other people, but a continuation and expansion of what goes to themselves. A government shutdown forces them to see just how much they're sponging off the government, too.
  #55  
Old 01-10-2019, 05:17 PM
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I chose a week to a month. In two weeks, air traffic will cease and that will be the signal for the repugs to revolt. Funs fun, but now business suffers and that is insufferable.
I was going to say that two weeks puts us into the second month of the shutdown which should change your answer, but then I realized that the OP didn't make it clear whether he was asking how long we thought the government shutdown would last, starting now (well, yesterday, since that's the date of the OP), or how long it would last, total.

Since yesterday was Day 19 of the shutdown, that's a nontrivial difference.
  #56  
Old 01-10-2019, 06:27 PM
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I was going to say that two weeks puts us into the second month of the shutdown which should change your answer, but then I realized that the OP didn't make it clear whether he was asking how long we thought the government shutdown would last, starting now (well, yesterday, since that's the date of the OP), or how long it would last, total.

Since yesterday was Day 19 of the shutdown, that's a nontrivial difference.
Starting as of yesterday.
  #57  
Old 01-10-2019, 07:30 PM
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Starting as of yesterday.
Wonder how many votes that would change?
  #58  
Old 01-10-2019, 08:34 PM
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I was torn between 1week to a month and 1-2 months. But I think there's a slightly higher likelihood of it ending sooner than a month than of it taking long than a month.

Trump can only keep up the theatrics for so long. His public address shows he's already getting desperate. The more he tries to appeal the people, the more it's clear he'll shut it down.

Someone on Fox will say something that gives him (in his mind) a plausible out. As soon as Fox lets him, he'll declare victory despite not getting the Wall funding, and give up again, like he did before.

Edit: and, yes, I did assume he meant as of the day of the poll. Otherwise anything less than 2 weeks would not be possible.

Last edited by BigT; 01-10-2019 at 08:35 PM.
  #59  
Old 01-10-2019, 09:08 PM
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Starting as of yesterday.
I assumed it was from the beginning which I think would be the most common interpretation.
  #60  
Old 01-10-2019, 10:00 PM
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For a master negotiator and businessman, he has certainly painted himself into a corner and given himself zero negotiation room. He now lives or dies over this wall and frankly that worries me. That said, I think as long as the D's stay unified in opposition this will end badly for Trump. I read an article this morning where reports are Trump and his advisors really didn't even consider the significant impact to a shutdown - food inspections, income tax returns, SNAP benefits, etc. and just how many millions of people were going to be hurt. They seem to have only considered the federal workers in aggregate who get furloughed and tried to either claim they supported the shutdown (absurd on its face) or that they were just lazy D's working in cushy union jobs (also absurd). As it becomes more and more apparent that soon millions won't be able to receive SNAP to feed their family, as income tax refunds don't get sent hurting middle and lower class families who plan for that annual windfall of a return, and as the airport system grinds to a halt dramatically impacting business and vacation travel... Well, if Trump doesn't fold the R's in the Senate are going to have to have a Come To Jesus meeting and make a very hard choice. Save themselves or go down with the Wall which they all know is a useless boarder protection measure.

I voted 1-2 months because I think it'll take that long for the pain level to reach a threshold where Trump or the R's will have to act to end this.
This.
  #61  
Old 01-10-2019, 11:36 PM
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I chose a week to a month. In two weeks, air traffic will cease and that will be the signal for the repugs to revolt. Funs fun, but now business suffers and that is insufferable.
It'll probably take longer than 2 weeks for the signs to become noticeable. They can quit, but they can't refuse to come to work. They can be reprimanded and fired if they do. Striking is illegal.

Yes, it's unfair. I suspect that some will just quit. It'll be a few here and a few there in the next couple of weeks. It'll become more noticeable after another month.

The Republicans have trapped themselves into governing according to what Rush Limbaugh blithers on about on his daily talk show.
  #62  
Old 01-11-2019, 12:25 AM
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I assumed it was from the beginning which I think would be the most common interpretation.
Aye; it's really the only way to interpret the question posed. I mean, the thread title isn't "how much longer do you think the US government shutdown will last?".

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 01-11-2019 at 12:28 AM.
  #63  
Old 01-11-2019, 08:58 AM
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It'll probably take longer than 2 weeks for the signs to become noticeable. They can quit, but they can't refuse to come to work. They can be reprimanded and fired if they do. Striking is illegal.
They can be sick an inordinate amount of the time, which has more or less the same effect as a strike. (Weaker, but the same idea.) But it's hard to prove that a particular individual was abusing his/her SL, and if you can't do that, you can't fire or reprimand them.
  #64  
Old 01-11-2019, 09:40 AM
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I'm not sure what point you are making with that graph. If the government is in shut down private contractors will not get paid any more than federal employees would.
  #65  
Old 01-11-2019, 10:46 AM
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I actually heard a Republican rep from OK make some sense today. He said to solve it, you need to make it bigger. Make a big deal that includes DACA to make the Dems happy, add in the $5 billion for border security to pacify the bigots, end sequestration to mollify the Dems, give another bone to Republicans, and so on. Let everybody claim some sort of victory.
Can't have that.... sounds too much like compromise and old-time politics.

Nope, the GOP has kind of hung their hat on giving no concessions and being as obstinate as possible about that kind of thing. It's like they think that giving in on the DACA stuff to win for the wall is somehow losing, even though it's exactly the sort of political horse trading that the system is built on and expects to happen.
  #66  
Old 01-11-2019, 02:01 PM
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I'm not sure what point you are making with that graph. If the government is in shut down private contractors will not get paid any more than federal employees would.
His belief is that private security is better than any level of big-government police. When seconds count, Wackin'Hump Security is only minutes away, but if you survive the incident you can always contract with their competitor (penalties will apply for early contract termination; Wackin'Hump Security is a division of BigMonopoly Protection Racket Inc.).
  #67  
Old 01-11-2019, 03:54 PM
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They can be sick an inordinate amount of the time, which has more or less the same effect as a strike. (Weaker, but the same idea.) But it's hard to prove that a particular individual was abusing his/her SL, and if you can't do that, you can't fire or reprimand them.
According to contract, air traffic controllers can be out sick up to four days in a row without a “doctor’s note.” More time than that, management can require medical proof of your illness.

If sick leave abuse is suspected, even before that threshold, then there are things management can do to keep a tighter rein on that individual, such as requiring a doctor’s note for any amount of requested sick leave. But ... those procedures take time to implement; they have a fairly high threshold before being instituted; and right now, there are no facility managers or administrative personnel reporting to duty at air traffic facilities. Only controllers and first-level supervisors are actually working, so there’s really not anyone available to actually implement these procedures.

So expect more controllers to come down with something, particularly since they’re now actually missing a paycheck.

Source: I was an air traffic controller for over 27 years. I retired just before Christmas, which turned out to be fantastic timing.
  #68  
Old 01-11-2019, 04:01 PM
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Can't have that.... sounds too much like compromise and old-time politics.

Nope, the GOP has kind of hung their hat on giving no concessions and being as obstinate as possible about that kind of thing. It's like they think that giving in on the DACA stuff to win for the wall is somehow losing, even though it's exactly the sort of political horse trading that the system is built on and expects to happen.
And the talk that’s making me endlessly mad now is the GOP talking point of “The Democrats won’t even negotiate!”

When your bargaining position is “We won’t even consider your point (re-opening government) until you grant our point ($5.7 billion for the Wall),” it’s absolute bullshit to claim it’s the other side that’s failing to negotiate. I personally think the Democratic offer to fund everything except DHS for the rest of the year and have talks about DHS funding is very reasonable (Transportation, Agriculture, National Parks have no direct connection to border security, why are they being punished?), but I do understand the concept of leverage.
  #69  
Old 01-11-2019, 04:06 PM
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Especially when the Democrats already, earlier this year, offered exactly what Trump wants, in exchange for a continuation of a policy that's popular among something like 80% of the population, and that still wasn't good enough. What the heck do Republicans think negotiation looks like?
  #70  
Old 01-11-2019, 04:07 PM
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According to contract, air traffic controllers can be out sick up to four days in a row without a “doctor’s note.” More time than that, management can require medical proof of your illness.

If sick leave abuse is suspected, even before that threshold, then there are things management can do to keep a tighter rein on that individual, such as requiring a doctor’s note for any amount of requested sick leave. But ... those procedures take time to implement; they have a fairly high threshold before being instituted; and right now, there are no facility managers or administrative personnel reporting to duty at air traffic facilities. Only controllers and first-level supervisors are actually working, so there’s really not anyone available to actually implement these procedures.

So expect more controllers to come down with something, particularly since they’re now actually missing a paycheck.

Source: I was an air traffic controller for over 27 years. I retired just before Christmas, which turned out to be fantastic timing.
Let me just add to this that, under a shutdown, there’s technically no such thing as “approved leave,” sick or otherwise. You’re considered essential, you’re supposed to be at work, no time off for vacations or kid’s events or funerals or being sick. You’d technically be put on “furlough” status if you were actually incapacitated for work - which means there’s no guarantee you’d get paid for that time. You know you’ll eventually get paid for what you work during a shutdown, but if you missed any time during that, it literally takes an act of Congress to restore your pay for “furlough” time. That’s exactly the same situation “non-essential” furloughed workers are in - they have to rely on Congress making them whole for the time they were prevented from working.

That has been granted in all previous shutdowns, and the Senate has passed a bill ensuring that this time - but it’s never guaranteed. Think about being furloughed weeks or even months without the certainty of getting any income for that time - that’s what shutdowns do.
  #71  
Old 01-11-2019, 04:10 PM
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I have hit this point: I just called my state's senior US Senator and said they need to pass the resolution that passed in the House. "The President has had his tantrum," said I. "A lot of people here rely on SNAP & WIC. You're about to have an air travel crisis. The wall is not getting built this Congress. I expect to see the government up & running Monday, or this becomes about you-all, and what we start saying about you."

McConnell has been drawing fire on this too long. I want my Senators to know I hold them responsible.

I haven't looked up the new junior Senator's number yet, but I may leave a stern phone message this evening.

Last edited by foolsguinea; 01-11-2019 at 04:11 PM. Reason: italicization
  #72  
Old 01-11-2019, 04:34 PM
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I’m becoming certain by the minute we will see the President declare a national emergency at any moment and fund the wall that way. As I understand it such an action would basically end the shutdown since Congress would then pass a bill to fund the government and Trump would be willing to sign it. I expect something like this will happen no later than Monday.

And then the court fight will begin.
  #73  
Old 01-11-2019, 05:04 PM
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What the heck do Republicans think negotiation looks like?
Complete capitulation to their demands.
  #74  
Old 01-11-2019, 05:20 PM
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So, as I see it, the Democrats understand that you don't reward a toddler for having a tantrum. They know Trump claimed responsibility for the shutdown, they know red states are the biggest federal aid consumers, they know most Americans think Trump and his wall are stupid. They have no reason to capitulate (but never put it past Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory).

On the other hand, Trump. He's a raging narcissist, and saving face is his utmost priority. But he's a dumbshit as dealmaker and he's left himself no face-saving exit (though I guess burning the boats is a kind of strategy). Without at least a billion in funding, I can't imagine an exit strategy that leaves his fragile manbaby ego intact.

Actually I can imagine it - he just lies to his base and says he won, just like he said his unratified USMCA deal would make Mexico pay for the wall. It's not like Rush Limbaugh is suddenly going to become a fact-checker. His fans eat up this bullshit like it's gummy bears. I'm baffled why Trump hasn't already done this.

So what I'm trying to say is 'how long will this shutdown last' is a question best applied to normal political staring contests, which this is not. This is a pivotal question for a presidency and a nation, so to my mind the important question is more how will it go down than when. And my answer is I have no clue. But I chose 1-2 years.

Last edited by HMS Irruncible; 01-11-2019 at 05:22 PM.
  #75  
Old 01-11-2019, 06:56 PM
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.... What the heck do Republicans think negotiation looks like?
Like when there's a SWAT team outside, and you have a knife up to your hostage's throat. Negotiation.
  #76  
Old 01-11-2019, 09:58 PM
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I think it will be 1-2 more weeks.

Trump has gotten himself in the history books as having the longest best ever bigly shutdown. So there that's one more feather in his cap, but its got to be clear even to him that just saying "gimme wall" over and over again isn't going to work. His next strategy is to threaten to use emergency powers in the hope that that will intimidate the Dems into submission. When that doesn't work I think he will have painted himself in a corner to the point that he'll have to go through with it. At which point he'll declare victory and let a the same bill he agreed to in mid December actually go through.
  #77  
Old 01-11-2019, 11:30 PM
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I have hit this point: I just called my state's senior US Senator and said they need to pass the resolution that passed in the House. "The President has had his tantrum," said I. "A lot of people here rely on SNAP & WIC. You're about to have an air travel crisis. The wall is not getting built this Congress. I expect to see the government up & running Monday, or this becomes about you-all, and what we start saying about you."

McConnell has been drawing fire on this too long. I want my Senators to know I hold them responsible.

I haven't looked up the new junior Senator's number yet, but I may leave a stern phone message this evening.
An A for effort, but your blue state senator already gets it, but your red state senator relishes the possibility of a shrunken federal workforce. Plus it slows the work of the Department of Justice, the EPA, and things stuff like that. Trump has no reason to deal. If he wanted to end the shutdown...he probably never would have had one in the first place.

Trump doesn't really know what the fuck he wants - other than tormenting his perceived enemies. There should be a way out of the trade war, but there isn't because he doesn't know what he wants. It's the same with other shit that he's tried to make a deal on. He's only going to be more unhinged.
  #78  
Old 01-12-2019, 04:40 AM
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I’m becoming certain by the minute we will see the President declare a national emergency at any moment and fund the wall that way. As I understand it such an action would basically end the shutdown since Congress would then pass a bill to fund the government and Trump would be willing to sign it. I expect something like this will happen no later than Monday.

And then the court fight will begin.
Aaaaaand after a day of having a whole bunch of folks explain why this would be a bad precedent and big bad dumb solution, the President has backed away from the idea of declaring a national emergency.
  #79  
Old 01-12-2019, 04:43 AM
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...Sarah Kendzior characterized the shutdown as a "hostile restructuring." And I think that's a much more accurate way of describing what we are seeing here.

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Originally Posted by Sarah Kendzior
Pay attention to the long-term, cumulative damage of the shutdown, including the effect on the census.

The Trump admin has long sought to manipulate the census in an effort to reallocate resources and annihilate rights. This isn't just a shutdown -- it's a hostile restructuring.

...

I warned from the start that this was a deliberate plan. There are some things we may be able to recover: voter rights, jobs. There are others we may lose forever -- like some of our national parks.

And most importantly, we lose lives. The admin kills, the shutdown accelerates.

...

The scope of loss from the shutdown is staggering. Already we lost FDA inspection; FBI and TSA protection from terrorism and violent crime; food stamps for needy families; paychecks for desperate workers; the national parks system...

It's unsustainable and that's the point.
The events of the last couple of years have moved so quickly lets not forget the early days of the administration. Steve Bannon. Bannon is a believer in "The Fourth Turning."

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Originally Posted by NYTimes
History is seasonal, and winter is coming. … The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, one commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II. The risk of catastrophe will be high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule.

In an interview with The Times, Mr. Bannon said, “Everything President Trump is doing — all of it — is to get ahead of or stop any potential crisis.” But the magnitude of this crisis — and who is ultimately responsible for it — is an unknown that Mr. Trump can use to his political advantage. This helps explain Mr. Trump’s tendency to emphasize crime rates, terrorist attacks and weak border control.

The Fourth Turning will trigger a political upheaval beyond anything Americans could today imagine. New civic authority will have to take root, quickly and firmly — which won’t be easy if the discredited rules and rituals of the old regime remain fully in place. We should shed and simplify the federal government in advance of the Crisis by cutting back sharply on its size and scope but without imperiling its core infrastructure.
The goal is to break the system. To bring it to its knees. In the early days of the administration we saw how they approached this: either getting rid of or marginalising the "smart" people and the people not loyal to Trump. Leaving important posts unfilled and departments woefully understaffed. I said at the time that this wouldn't break the Federal Government. The Federal Government is a huge chaotic "machine" that thunders along like a runaway railway-train. But things would slip through the cracks. Not everything that "used to be done" would get done. Corners would be cut. As anyone who have had to work in situations where you are understaffed and under-resourced we know this would be inevitable.

And the shut-down is merely another phase in the "stealth civil war." Because the reality is that WillFarnaby is not alone in his opinions. And in an administration that allowed Michael Wolff to just hang out at the White House, that was unable to stop Omarosa from covertly recording private and confidential encounters, it is very easy to imagine that there are plenty of people running wild in the WH that share WillFarnaby's views.

It doesn't matter that Bannon's no longer there. His surrogates, like Stephen Miller, are still there and are key in everything that we are seeing happening. Putin wants to break everything as well. And there are others in the administration who just want to make money. Its a perfect storm of evil people with different motivations who have figured out how to take advantage of the stupidest person on the planet to wreck havoc with the most powerful country in the world.

So how long will this last?

I'm too scared to make a prediction. The best case scenario IMHO is a couple of weeks-to-a-month from now. For a quick resolution to the shutdown it relies on Republicans putting pressure on McConnell, it needs for someone to figure out a way to give Trump a win without actually giving him anything. Trump is the wildcard. He is thick-as-shit and does whatever the last-person tells him to do. So this could all be over with a single tweet.

Here's what I'm imagining the worst case scenario is.

The shutdown continues. The news cycle moves on. People stop paying attention.

Law suits start. The administration looses, maybe they start limited payroll. Or they start to look at ways of replacing federal employees with contractors. They start to sell off the national parks, increase privatization. WillFarnaby is our guide on what they plan to do, just read his posts to get an insight into how they think.

Trump wants his wall. The goal of everyone else is to break things, to destabilize America, to make money. Looking at it from a distance its fascinating to watch, in a very morbid sense. If you wanted to take over the United States you wouldn't do it with an army: you would do it with a plan as utterly preposterous as this. So in the worst case scenario when would it end? It wouldn't. It would evolve, the administration would "rebrand" the shutdown, ignore the law, a new crisis will be introduced, the media moves on, and our perception of what is and isn't "normal" shifts yet again.

I'm picking and hoping for some variation of the best case scenario. But the longer this drags out the happier people like Bannon will be. This is everything he's been dreaming of and more, and it takes him one step closer to his goal.
  #80  
Old 01-12-2019, 09:11 AM
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Aaaaaand after a day of having a whole bunch of folks explain why this would be a bad precedent and big bad dumb solution, the President has backed away from the idea of declaring a national emergency.
Question is, was he really convinced it was a bad idea, or is he just enjoying all the drama and attention that this shutdown is generating, and wants to prolong it?
  #81  
Old 01-12-2019, 01:30 PM
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And the talk that’s making me endlessly mad now is the GOP talking point of “The Democrats won’t even negotiate!”

When your bargaining position is “We won’t even consider your point (re-opening government) until you grant our point ($5.7 billion for the Wall),” it’s absolute bullshit to claim it’s the other side that’s failing to negotiate. I personally think the Democratic offer to fund everything except DHS for the rest of the year and have talks about DHS funding is very reasonable (Transportation, Agriculture, National Parks have no direct connection to border security, why are they being punished?), but I do understand the concept of leverage.
Looks like the shutdown will continue until the Democrats start taking President Russian Asset's demands more seriously. This damn US government- not only does it impose an unacceptable tax burden on the wealthy and intrude on their personal affairs with things like audits and, yanno, laws, but it also hands out, for free, things like food, medicine, and education to its citizens. How are Russia and China supposed to compete under these conditions?

So, yeah, a monument to hatred against our closest neighbor it is. All of this free trade, cooperation and hard-working, population-increasing immigration is making America too strong for the Russians' comfort. After the Dems give in to this shutdown, there's another one due in October...
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  #82  
Old 01-12-2019, 01:40 PM
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...Sarah Kendzior characterized the shutdown as a "hostile restructuring." And I think that's a much more accurate way of describing what we are seeing here.



The events of the last couple of years have moved so quickly lets not forget the early days of the administration. Steve Bannon. Bannon is a believer in "The Fourth Turning."



The goal is to break the system. To bring it to its knees. In the early days of the administration we saw how they approached this: either getting rid of or marginalising the "smart" people and the people not loyal to Trump. Leaving important posts unfilled and departments woefully understaffed. I said at the time that this wouldn't break the Federal Government. The Federal Government is a huge chaotic "machine" that thunders along like a runaway railway-train. But things would slip through the cracks. Not everything that "used to be done" would get done. Corners would be cut. As anyone who have had to work in situations where you are understaffed and under-resourced we know this would be inevitable.

And the shut-down is merely another phase in the "stealth civil war." Because the reality is that WillFarnaby is not alone in his opinions. And in an administration that allowed Michael Wolff to just hang out at the White House, that was unable to stop Omarosa from covertly recording private and confidential encounters, it is very easy to imagine that there are plenty of people running wild in the WH that share WillFarnaby's views.

It doesn't matter that Bannon's no longer there. His surrogates, like Stephen Miller, are still there and are key in everything that we are seeing happening. Putin wants to break everything as well. And there are others in the administration who just want to make money. Its a perfect storm of evil people with different motivations who have figured out how to take advantage of the stupidest person on the planet to wreck havoc with the most powerful country in the world.

So how long will this last?

I'm too scared to make a prediction. The best case scenario IMHO is a couple of weeks-to-a-month from now. For a quick resolution to the shutdown it relies on Republicans putting pressure on McConnell, it needs for someone to figure out a way to give Trump a win without actually giving him anything. Trump is the wildcard. He is thick-as-shit and does whatever the last-person tells him to do. So this could all be over with a single tweet.

Here's what I'm imagining the worst case scenario is.

The shutdown continues. The news cycle moves on. People stop paying attention.

Law suits start. The administration looses, maybe they start limited payroll. Or they start to look at ways of replacing federal employees with contractors. They start to sell off the national parks, increase privatization. WillFarnaby is our guide on what they plan to do, just read his posts to get an insight into how they think.

Trump wants his wall. The goal of everyone else is to break things, to destabilize America, to make money. Looking at it from a distance its fascinating to watch, in a very morbid sense. If you wanted to take over the United States you wouldn't do it with an army: you would do it with a plan as utterly preposterous as this. So in the worst case scenario when would it end? It wouldn't. It would evolve, the administration would "rebrand" the shutdown, ignore the law, a new crisis will be introduced, the media moves on, and our perception of what is and isn't "normal" shifts yet again.

I'm picking and hoping for some variation of the best case scenario. But the longer this drags out the happier people like Bannon will be. This is everything he's been dreaming of and more, and it takes him one step closer to his goal.
As I said: why drown government in a bathtub when you can just close it for lack of funds? The GOP is finally getting rid of our government; it's been their goal for decades now.
  #83  
Old 01-12-2019, 03:20 PM
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I don't think that the problems will ever get through to Trump. But I think that food riots (which are coming at the start of February) will be enough to get through to either McConnell, or to enough Senate Republicans to ditch McConnell.
  #84  
Old 01-12-2019, 03:58 PM
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I don't think that the problems will ever get through to Trump. But I think that food riots (which are coming at the start of February) will be enough to get through to either McConnell, or to enough Senate Republicans to ditch McConnell.
Are the silos going empty?
  #85  
Old 01-12-2019, 04:43 PM
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Are the silos going empty?
No, but the food stamp coffers are.

And in the near future run, if this fiasco goes on for long, the farmers who depend on government loans and handouts to plant crops won't be able to, and the silos will gradually empty if nothing is coming in.
  #86  
Old 01-12-2019, 05:37 PM
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... food riots (which are coming at the start of February) ...
This sounds exciting. Who / where do you think there will be riots? SNAP recipients?

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 01-12-2019 at 05:38 PM.
  #87  
Old 01-12-2019, 06:53 PM
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The conspiracy level thinking depends on way too much discipline and control from the Trump Administration and their Republican Party. This is not some secret 4D chess plan. This is more Trump stupidity. The Republicans in the House and Senate were willing to avoid this, so it would only be a matter of time before they'd override the veto if the Trump Administration was going rogue.

The only problem with predicting when this will end is Trump's stubbornness, not some Grand Plan.
  #88  
Old 01-12-2019, 07:11 PM
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The Republicans in the House and Senate were willing to avoid this, so it would only be a matter of time before they'd override the veto if the Trump Administration was going rogue.
Overriding the veto is the only way I can see this ending. McConnell could make this happen, but it seems like he's on board the Trump Train on this one (otherwise, he'd have allowed an override vote a lot sooner, knowing how this is damaging Trump and the Republicans).

I don't understand what senate Repubs are doing here, so I can't see what the end looks like. Something massive would have to shift the calculus (maybe the House threatens to subpoena Trump's tax returns, maybe he trades the wall against that). I don't know.

Last edited by HMS Irruncible; 01-12-2019 at 07:11 PM.
  #89  
Old 01-12-2019, 07:30 PM
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Yes, of course because of people not getting their SNAP. What the heck do you think happens when people can't get food?
  #90  
Old 01-12-2019, 07:56 PM
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Overriding the veto is the only way I can see this ending. McConnell could make this happen, but it seems like he's on board the Trump Train on this one (otherwise, he'd have allowed an override vote a lot sooner, knowing how this is damaging Trump and the Republicans).

I don't understand what senate Repubs are doing here, so I can't see what the end looks like. Something massive would have to shift the calculus (maybe the House threatens to subpoena Trump's tax returns, maybe he trades the wall against that). I don't know.
Keep in mind, many, many Republican voters...are not at all poor. They're suburban and rural. They're a minority of the American voting public, but the Republicans gerrymandered their asses off in 2010 and won the electoral college in 2016, which means that they owe their allegiance to a plurality that is white, suburban or rural, and fairly well off. As far as they can tell, the bigger political price to pay is to support blue collar government workers.

Never forget, folks: behind scumbag politicians are millions of scumbag voters. Time to make them a minority. They need to be dominated.
  #91  
Old 01-12-2019, 09:57 PM
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Yes, of course because of people not getting their SNAP. What the heck do you think happens when people can't get food?
I would guess they'd pay for it themselves, or find someone else to give it to them. Maybe (but I think it unlikely) we'll get to see first-hand what happens.
  #92  
Old 01-13-2019, 12:29 AM
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“The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.”
.................................― John Kenneth Galbraith


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Keep in mind, many, many Republican voters...are not at all poor. They're suburban and rural. They're a minority of the American voting public, but the Republicans gerrymandered their asses off in 2010 and won the electoral college in 2016, which means that they owe their allegiance to a plurality that is white, suburban or rural, and fairly well off. As far as they can tell, the bigger political price to pay is to support blue collar government workers.
True. There are many millions of well-off white suburbanites who do have empathy for fellow Americans, but these mostly vote for Democrats. Trumpists and/or Republicans (is there a difference these days?) behave like the "conservatives" Professor Galbraith described.

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I would guess they'd pay for it themselves, or find someone else to give it to them. Maybe (but I think it unlikely) we'll get to see first-hand what happens.
See?
  #93  
Old 01-13-2019, 01:35 AM
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Isn't H.Ditka a Mormon? If things go pear-shaped, he will probably still have the church's charities to fall back on.

I think he's like a lot of younger folks who come up in a right-wing environment, kind of indifferent to the idea of "theoretical" harm to other people. It hasn't hit him yet that this is real and terrible.
  #94  
Old 01-13-2019, 07:17 AM
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I would guess they'd pay for it themselves, or find someone else to give it to them.
Are there no prisons? Are there no workhouses?
  #95  
Old 01-14-2019, 04:21 PM
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I give it about two more weeks. Federal employees will lose one paycheck on Friday. As the second pay period looms, Republicans will cave. Losing two paychecks will turn Republicans into Democrats.

Aren't Federal employees something like 80% Democratic? And aren't most of them based in DC are, which will never vote Republican.

I don't think the shut down will cost Trump any electoral votes.
  #96  
Old 01-14-2019, 04:32 PM
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... this is real and terrible.
They're a bunch of overpaid government bureaucrats. They'll be fine.

Loudoun County is quite literally the wealthiest county in the country. It is with that backdrop that we should consider the "plight" they face:

Quote:
The Loudoun County Board of Supervisors will aid hundreds of area federal employees and contractors facing hardships during the partial government shutdown.

On Wednesday night, the board approved the appropriation of up to $25,000 in the fiscal 2019 budget for Loudoun Hunger Relief and the Dulles South Food Pantry. Additionally, transit and commuter bus fees will also be waived starting Monday for a period of the shutdown to federal government employees "that are not receiving paychecks," a phrase that was discussed by board members.

"There are going to be other things we are going to try and do ... but these two things will start to ensure people are eating,” Chairwoman Phyllis Randall (D-At Large) said. “You need to have food, shelter and heat—especially this weekend—and if we can do that that would be real important, and if we can get people to and from work who are not getting paid without costing them money that would all be helpful.”...
source

Yes, the poor dears need free bus fare and food pantries or else they'll freeze to death.



There aren't enough eyerolls on the Internet for that bullshit.

LMAO.
  #97  
Old 01-14-2019, 04:43 PM
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There are federal employees all over the place, and people who depend upon federal employees to be able to do their own jobs even more spread out.

Here, let me try to make it relevant to you. Do you ever make use of a grocery store? A non-negligible portion of a grocery store's profits come from people using food stamps, and it's an industry with thin margins. If those food stamps skip a month, a lot of them are going to go out of business, and when that happens, you won't be able to buy food, either.
  #98  
Old 01-14-2019, 04:51 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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... If those food stamps skip a month, a lot of them are going to go out of business, and when that happens, you won't be able to buy food, either.
What's your estimate of "a lot"? There are almost 40,000 grocery stores in the United States. How many should we expect will be out of business if SNAP payments don't go out this month or next?
  #99  
Old 01-14-2019, 05:25 PM
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I dunno, maybe half? I'ven't seen the statistics.
  #100  
Old 01-14-2019, 05:28 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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I dunno, maybe half? I'ven't seen the statistics.
LOL, alrighty then. I'll tell you what, I'll spot you 25% and join you in screaming about how the sky is falling when one quarter of grocery stores go out of business, ok? Hell, I'll even throw in some singing of your praises and tell you how sorry I am that I voted for Trump and that you were right all along.
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