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Old 08-22-2018, 02:04 AM
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Is this finally it? Is this finally the series of events that will end Trump's presidency?


The one-two punch of Manafort being convicted of eight felonies and the stunning turn of events with Michael Cohen has me optimistic for the first time that maybe, just maybe, we will be rid of the scourge that is Trump leading our nation.

What do you guys think?
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Old 08-22-2018, 02:12 AM
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We can only hope.
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Old 08-22-2018, 02:14 AM
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Crazy. Here's wishing I will wake up from this nightmare, soon.

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Old 08-22-2018, 03:06 AM
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I'm optimistic this will put the kibosh on his 2020 re-election.

But Trump ain't going anywhere until his current term is over. (Which I think is preferable over him getting impeached)
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Old 08-22-2018, 03:16 AM
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He's got a Congress and a Supreme Court that desperately want to avoid doing anything about him. I don't see any change happening unless the Democrats win back Congress and Trump starts facing some real opposition.
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Old 08-22-2018, 03:38 AM
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I think the vast majority of the Republican Party will simply try to ride out any political scandal. We'll be hearing a lot more about "fake news" and the "deep state."

So a lot depends on how Democrats do in the midterms. And also whether the economic boom stalls.
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Old 08-22-2018, 03:38 AM
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Looking at the approval ratings for Presidents through history (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo - switch to the 8 year view in the third section), Nixon's rating dropped like an anvil at the start of 1973 and even then it still took several months, after hitting the low 20s, before they finally axed him.

We'll have to see what happens to his popularity rating, but if it stays steady then I don't think there's much hope of impeachment. On the other hand, you could debate whether a modern Congress would be more or less likely to support the President once he dropped under 30% approval. Modern politicians are more partisan the ones of yore, but they're also now shackled more heavily to the fickle demands of the general public. Whereas, in the 70s, they could be reasonable and wait for an official report to come out, from the investigation, these days they might dump Trump as soon as the numbers say they need to.

But on Trump's side of things, it's now too late for him to step down. Presidential immunity and the pardon power are his only hopes for staying out of jail, outside of fleeing to Russia and asking for asylum.

He'll stick with it until he thinks that people are coming for him, and then he'll make a run for the border.
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Old 08-22-2018, 06:24 AM
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Didn’t he just seat the deciding vote for when this reaches the Supreme Court?

How can anyone be optimistic knowing this? He already lined up his ‘get out of jail free’ ticket it looks like to me.
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Old 08-22-2018, 06:33 AM
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Be careful what you wish for....President Pence?
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Old 08-22-2018, 06:33 AM
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they won't impeach him and remove him. The reason is that the GOP guys like everyone else have the #1 goal of staying in office. If he is removed the GOP are afraid they will lose re-election not just to Dems but also they could even lose their next primary to a Trumper.
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Old 08-22-2018, 06:34 AM
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Didn’t he just seat the deciding vote for when this reaches the Supreme Court?

How can anyone be optimistic knowing this? He already lined up his ‘get out of jail free’ ticket it looks like to me.
What are you talking about?

The Supreme Court doesn't remove the president, the Senate does.

If you are talking about a legal fight over a subpoena from Mueller, Trump would still lose that battle in the Supreme Court, even if Kavanaugh was sitting.

Of course, having lost the battle, Trump could still refuse to comply. I hope that happens.
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Old 08-22-2018, 06:57 AM
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Be careful what you wish for....President Pence?
I was more amenable to Trump than Pence, but seeing Trump's body language with Putin, I don't think we can safely have him as President. If they don't have video of him banging a 14 year old prostitute in St Petersberg, then they have information about money laundering, accepting money from them for the election, or something else that would be life in jail.

Pence may be a blight on humanity, but he's at least loyal to the country and - if Trump is impeached - I don't think the Republican party would dare let him do anything even slightly objectionable. He'd be forced to be the most milquetoast and bland President since Jimmy Carter regardless that every fiber of his being might cry out for a Fundamentalist paradise. He'll order massive penalties against Russia and then go into hibernation for two years.
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Old 08-22-2018, 08:29 AM
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Since the prevailing wisdom is that Trump won't be impeached, I think the best we can hope for as all his dominos continue to fall is for Trump to achieve "lame duck" status which would reduce the amount of damage his is doing to the country and relationships with allies.

Who knows what the future will bring.

Mueller is certainly working on other cases. There is likely to be more indictments coming.

Trump's Republican allies as showing signs of weakening support.

If the "blue wave" occurs, the odds of impeachment increase.

I would like to see him indicted while in office, though.

An indictment or an impeachment in his third year would be good in that it would leave the whole last year of his (or Pence's) presidency "lame".
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Old 08-22-2018, 09:06 AM
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I don't think it's the end of Trump, but it might well be the beginning of the end.
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Old 08-22-2018, 09:15 AM
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Is this finally it? Is this finally the series of events that will end Trump's presidency?


In a word, No.

The whole idea was Russian collusion, by Trump. This isn't Russian, it isn't collusion, and it isn't Trump. At least when they tried it with Clinton, he was guilty of something.

Maybe the Dems will take over the House, and ram their heads into the brick wall for a few more years.

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Old 08-22-2018, 09:26 AM
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No, it won't make a difference because the Republicans in congress and the vast majority of their supporters don't have any honor. They don't even pretend to have honor, except Sessions who had his honor deeply offended... that he got caught lying.

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Old 08-22-2018, 09:34 AM
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Will it swing some Independent voters, depress some Republican voters and help Democrat turnout, thus increasing the already excellent chance of flipping the House? I think absolutely yes. If the Dems flip the Senate too (sigh, unlikely but not impossible), then you bet impeachment is what's for breakfast. Even just the House will make a huge change.

Will it cause any immediate change in the Republican members of Congress? Not on your life.
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Old 08-22-2018, 09:35 AM
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In a word, No.

The whole idea was Russian collusion, by Trump. This isn't Russian, it isn't collusion, and it isn't Trump. At least when they tried it with Clinton, he was guilty of something.

Maybe the Dems will take over the House, and ram their heads into the brick wall for a few more years.
Democrats' heads tomorrow could end up as sore as Republicans' tails are today.
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Old 08-22-2018, 09:54 AM
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In a word, No.

The whole idea was Russian collusion, by Trump. This isn't Russian, it isn't collusion, and it isn't Trump. At least when they tried it with Clinton, he was guilty of something.
...
Michael Cohen seemed to implicate Trump yesterday, under oath, of being guilt of violating some election laws. So, he may certainly be guilty of that (so far).
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Old 08-22-2018, 09:59 AM
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Michael Cohen seemed to implicate Trump yesterday, under oath, of being guilt of violating some election laws. So, he may certainly be guilty of that (so far).
Seemed to, my ass. He said that he was directed to commit felonies by person number one, a euphemism for that orange cretin with the goofy hairdo.
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Old 08-22-2018, 10:00 AM
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No.

The worst we have is that Cohen claims to have worked with Trump to violate campaign finance laws. Trump isn't going to be removed from office for that offense. It has to be something significantly worse.

Manafort's trial had northing to do with Trump except to make him look dirty by association. That isn't even close to being something that will bring down Trump.

But I do agree that this lessens the chance he'll try and run for reelection. Which is a good thing, as far as it goes.
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Old 08-22-2018, 10:05 AM
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He's got a Congress and a Supreme Court that desperately want to avoid doing anything about him.
...
I disagree on SCOTUS. I'm just going on body language here, but I don't think Neil Gorsuch likes him much.

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. . .
We'll have to see what happens to his popularity rating, but if it stays steady then I don't think there's much hope of impeachment. On the other hand, you could debate whether a modern Congress would be more or less likely to support the President once he dropped under 30% approval. Modern politicians are more partisan the ones of yore, but they're also now shackled more heavily to the fickle demands of the general public.
. . .
On the contrary the opinion of the general public has little or nothing to do with what congress does or what laws get passed.

They only drop in to rally the base at election time, talking nonsense and spewing lies to get re-elected.

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I was more amenable to Trump than Pence, but seeing Trump's body language with Putin, I don't think we can safely have him as President.
. . .
Pence may be a blight on humanity, but he's at least loyal to the country and - if Trump is impeached - I don't think the Republican party would dare let him do anything even slightly objectionable. He'd be forced to be the most milquetoast and bland President since Jimmy Carter regardless that every fiber of his being might cry out for a Fundamentalist paradise. He'll order massive penalties against Russia and then go into hibernation for two years.
I disagree completely. Michael Pence believes he is an old testament-style patriarch placed by God in a position of power for the purpose of cleansing the nation. There is reason to believe that he was sexually abused by an older brother throughout childhood. He has failed to differentiate child abuse from consensual adult relationships and has openly stated that he would like to hang all gay men.

His fawning restrictive rules regarding fidelity to his wife hide a sick old testament attitude toward women as well. He is of the old fashioned belief that women are inherently sinful and must be controlled. He thinks the authority in a woman's life should pass from her Father to her husband, and that allowing women real autonomy is the basis of all the evils in society. Including (in his mind, not mine) the mass murder of millions of babies each year. He thinks the government should control who can have sex with whom and the rules by which approval (marriage) should be granted.

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Since the prevailing wisdom is that Trump won't be impeached, I think the best we can hope for as all his dominos continue to fall is for Trump to achieve "lame duck" status which would reduce the amount of damage his is doing to the country and relationships with allies.
. . .
The best case scenario IMHO is that Mueller waits until January 2019 elections to indict President Trump. With a Democratic House,and a Democratic speaker, then impeach Trump and Pence. The Speaker of the House would become President for the rest of the term. If (as I think we will) we also have a Democratic Senate at that time, then the serious clean-up can begin as soon as February 2019.

Last edited by TruCelt; 08-22-2018 at 10:08 AM.
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Old 08-22-2018, 10:08 AM
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This isn't Russian, it isn't collusion, and it isn't Trump.
Yet. As far as you know.

Mueller isn't done. How confident are you?
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Old 08-22-2018, 10:15 AM
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Nancy Pelosi is on record as opposing impeachment. She wants DJT to be voted out, which I agree would be a better outcome. Impeachment would leave Trumpers with a permanent grudge against the deep state, Hillary Clinton, Mueller, Comey, Sessions, and anybody else they can think of. Their anger and paranoia would increase exponentially.
By the way, after yesterday's very bad news, Sean Hannity apparently frothed at the mouth ranting about Hillary's emails and the end of justice as we know it.
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Old 08-22-2018, 10:20 AM
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I said in another thread that Cohen's guilty plea could be the beginning of the end for Trump's Presidency, but I'll freely admit this is probably wishful thinking if based solely on what has been revealed so far. Much depends on what embarrassing revelations tumble out of Manafort's next trial and what else Cohen has to say (with backing evidence) regarding specific services he provided for Trump over the past several years. Cohen does seem rather desperate to cut some sort of deal with the special counsel.

To say, as some here seem to be saying, that only criminal acts related to Russian interference in the election have any significance regarding Trump is IMO way off the mark. What brought Nixon down wasn't necessarily the Watergate break-in itself, it was the accumulating weight of evidence that the Presidency was being run like criminal enterprise. I think we're seeing a similar situation here.
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Old 08-22-2018, 10:21 AM
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Without a lot of evidence that I know of, since Mueller has had the most leak-proof investigation ever put together, I think Mueller has a few aces up his sleeve that will call into question Trump's and his family's financial shenanigans, which may or may not involve Russians.
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Old 08-22-2018, 10:37 AM
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The best case scenario IMHO is that Mueller waits until January 2019 elections to indict President Trump. With a Democratic House,and a Democratic speaker, then impeach Trump and Pence. The Speaker of the House would become President for the rest of the term. If (as I think we will) we also have a Democratic Senate at that time, then the serious clean-up can begin as soon as February 2019.
Impeachment just sends the trial to the Senate. Neither can be removed from office without a 2/3 vote in the Senate. You need more than just a simple majority in the Senate.

Impeachment by the House is like an indictment. The trial happens in the Senate.

Last edited by John Mace; 08-22-2018 at 10:38 AM.
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Old 08-22-2018, 10:39 AM
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Depends on what Cohen has on him. I don't think a campaign finance violation will cut it. If however, there's more, maybe?

Also depends on the mid terms. If the dems take the house and senate, maybe he could be impeached and removed from office. If that doesn't happen, I don't think so. I also think this could easily be dragged out to 2020 anyway. I don't think Trump would resign like Nixon, and I think he will very likely serve his full term.

I'd say this could hurt his chances in 2020, but given that Trump is very good at generating news cycles, and the public has the attention span of a gnat, who knows?
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Old 08-22-2018, 10:43 AM
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What are you talking about?

The Supreme Court doesn't remove the president, the Senate does.

If you are talking about a legal fight over a subpoena from Mueller, Trump would still lose that battle in the Supreme Court, even if Kavanaugh was sitting.

Of course, having lost the battle, Trump could still refuse to comply. I hope that happens.
WRT the SCOTUS and a ruling on a subpoena from Mueller, I agree that Trump would lose even with Kavanaugh on the court. It’s not, however because I think Kavanaugh would rule against Trump. IMHO the deciding vote would be Roberts. I think Roberts cares to much about the country to let things get to the point where Trump is placed above the law for partisan reasons.
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Old 08-22-2018, 10:55 AM
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The Nixon precedents would be hard to dismiss, too.
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Old 08-22-2018, 11:06 AM
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The best case scenario IMHO is that Mueller waits until January 2019 elections to indict President Trump. With a Democratic House,and a Democratic speaker, then impeach Trump and Pence. The Speaker of the House would become President for the rest of the term. If (as I think we will) we also have a Democratic Senate at that time, then the serious clean-up can begin as soon as February 2019.
What crimes do you imagine Vice-President Pence committed?
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Old 08-22-2018, 11:06 AM
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What do you guys think?
I do hope so. But as Churchill said,

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Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
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Old 08-22-2018, 11:09 AM
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What crimes do you imagine Vice-President Pence committed?
He can be impeached for being a Trump-sucking religious asshole. No crime is needed for impeachment. You know that.
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Old 08-22-2018, 11:12 AM
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Be careful what you wish for....President Pence?
He's no prize. But he's better than Trump.
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Old 08-22-2018, 11:12 AM
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What crimes do you imagine Vice-President Pence committed?
Complicity in the campaign finance conspiracy, primarily. Do please recall that Pence lawyered up as fast as the rest of them when Mueller got started.
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Old 08-22-2018, 11:21 AM
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He can be impeached for being a Trump-sucking religious asshole. No crime is needed for impeachment. You know that.
Not grounds for impeachment. It's unlikely that President Trump will be impeached, and absurd to suggest that the Vice President will be. You know that.
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Old 08-22-2018, 11:30 AM
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Nancy Pelosi is on record as opposing impeachment. She wants DJT to be voted out, which I agree would be a better outcome.
Good thing we have reliable and secure election machines, no savvy adversarial powers with cyber warfare expertise, and the people in control of our government didn't refuse to fund election security under threat of interference, and that we routinely audit election results to make sure everything is on the up and up.

Oh right, the opposite of that.

If the Republicans are so complicit in election interference that they repeatedly refuse to secure our election, the American people may not even have the choice to vote him out in 2020.

It's not just Trump. The entire Republican party is complicit in allowing Russia to interfere with our elections so long as it works in their favor.
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Old 08-22-2018, 11:49 AM
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The answer is 'no' unless his base of support collapses and I don't think we're there yet.

Does it mean the possibility of winning the house goes up marginally? Yes, it does. But polls released mid-next week will begin to tell that tale. We're 75 days out from election day.

Even taking the house back, however, doesn't mean that he'd be removed. But he will be investigated. Endlessly. And we'll see the Republican congressional leadership bitch about it as much as the Democratic leadership bitched about the Obama investigations. So turns the wheel.

On the other hand...as a former journalist, I'd love to see them subpeona Trump's tax records and other financials. Even if they're presented in closed session the minute they're in the hands of congressional staffers you can time the leaks with a stopwatch.
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Old 08-22-2018, 12:06 PM
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Nope. The end of the Trump presidency will probably occur Jan 20, 2021. Congressional Repulbicans are much more partisan than they were in Nixon's day. There is very little that Trump could do that would get the 1/3 or so of the Senate Republicans votes needed to remove him from office. And without a credible threat of removal it is unlikely the Trump will vacate the office willingly. The best we can hope for is a massive blue wave this November that effectively neuters his adminstration and mires it in scandal investigations.

In the end there might be enough evidence against him to lock him up after he leaves office, but there is a good chance that his successor might prefer leniency as a move toward healing the divide rather than exacerbating the partisan wrangling that would result from further prosecution.

Last edited by Buck Godot; 08-22-2018 at 12:09 PM.
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Old 08-22-2018, 12:15 PM
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There is very little that Trump could do that would get the 1/3 or so of the Senate Republicans votes needed to remove him from office.
Yes. I do have to think most of them retain some shred of love of country before party, even if electoral calculation and simple spinelessness keep them intimidated. They might well figure that it's best if they can keep on the good side of their deplorable base by supporting their elected leader, perhaps with occasional tut-tuts about his tweets as a sop to the sane, while keeping him caged and unable to do more major damage to the country and to civilization.
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Old 08-22-2018, 12:35 PM
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...In the end there might be enough evidence against him to lock him up after he leaves office, but there is a good chance that his successor might prefer leniency as a move toward healing the divide rather than exacerbating the partisan wrangling that would result from further prosecution.
Yeh, to hell with that. Someone else said this on the SDMB, to paraphrase - "It's pretty messed up when the best way to stay out of prison is to remain in elected office".

If he's not locked up, I hope he spends the rest of his miserable life sitting in uncomfortable court rooms.
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Old 08-22-2018, 12:43 PM
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I agree the Democrats taking control of the House and Senate would staunch the damage presently being done by those in power. But, we are not there yet. Check out this report where kids were able to hack voting machines and alter results.

Seems the voting process is porous to shenanigans. I suspect 2016 was the first of many questionable elections we are going to see. It's starting to look like a banana republic, where elections are decided by a landslide where 98% of votes went for one candidate. Yeah, right.
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Old 08-22-2018, 12:47 PM
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Not grounds for impeachment. It's unlikely that President Trump will be impeached, and absurd to suggest that the Vice President will be. You know that.
You specifically wanted to know what crimes he would be impeached for. I answered that.
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Old 08-22-2018, 12:48 PM
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Do the math.

It takes 67 votes in Senate to convict after impeachment. If the Democrats win every seat up for election this fall, they end up with 58 seats.

The (political) evidence we've seen so far suggests that any Republican who openly opposes Trump would be defeated in the next primary election. Unless you can show me 9 incumbent Senate Republicans who are ready to end their careers, discussion is pointless.
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Old 08-22-2018, 01:32 PM
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You specifically wanted to know what crimes he would be impeached for. I answered that.
No, you most certainly did NOT. Being a "religious asshole" is NOT a crime.
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Old 08-22-2018, 01:34 PM
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(Pence) has openly stated that he would like to hang all gay men
Cite? From what I can tell, if he ever said that, it certainly wasn't "openly".
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Old 08-22-2018, 01:44 PM
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Cite? From what I can tell, if he ever said that, it certainly wasn't "openly".
I'll take "things that aren't true" for $1000.
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Old 08-22-2018, 01:46 PM
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You're quoting Trump - always a risky practice.
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Old 08-22-2018, 01:52 PM
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No, you most certainly did NOT. Being a "religious asshole" is NOT a crime.
Not yet. But when the Democrats take control of Congress, we can hope...
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Old 08-22-2018, 02:02 PM
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Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Riding my handcycle
Posts: 37,447
Quote:
Originally Posted by D'Anconia View Post
No, you most certainly did NOT. Being a "religious asshole" is NOT a crime.
So what? Impeachment can be for anything.
It's entirely possible for Pence to be a conspirator. Unless you believe he was in the dark on the campaign shenanigans.
Maybe Mueller is looking into that.
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