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Old 03-16-2018, 10:54 PM
mixdenny mixdenny is offline
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UMBC becomes 1st 16 seed to beat a #1 seed

The 188th ranked team in the nation becomes the first ever win by a 16 seed team. There will be no perfect brackets this year, mighty Casey has struck out. (Never mix a sports metaphor). Not squeaked by either, a decisive 74-54 game.

Dennis
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Old 03-16-2018, 11:00 PM
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About time.
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Old 03-16-2018, 11:04 PM
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Old 03-16-2018, 11:05 PM
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Old 03-16-2018, 11:06 PM
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Old 03-16-2018, 11:09 PM
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Normally I’d rail against this and demand #1 and #2 seeds get an automatic bye in this round but this game wasn’t even close. It’s not like the #1 team in the country lost in a fluke buzzer beater.

What the hell happened to Virginia??? What a bunch of losers, chokers and quitters and a disgrace to basketball. Their coach needs to be fired and the entire team cut. If I was an NBA Coach I’d never draft any of these jokers.


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Old 03-16-2018, 11:18 PM
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"May you live in interesting times."

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Old 03-16-2018, 11:20 PM
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What the hell happened to Virginia??? What a bunch of losers, chokers and quitters and a disgrace to basketball. Their coach needs to be fired and the entire team cut. If I was an NBA Coach Id never draft any of these jokers.
Unlike Arizona, which quite clearly quit after Buffalo opened up a bit of a lead, I didn't get the sense Virginia quit. But they did keep jacking up 3s even though they had been missing all night. Really wonder what their coach was thinking.
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Old 03-16-2018, 11:28 PM
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134 people bet this long shot with one bookie, bet $100 to win $2500. The bookie lost over $320,000.

Dennis
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Old 03-17-2018, 12:10 AM
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I knew it would happen someday and I thought it'd be one of those "where were you when it happened" kind of moments. Like a buzzer beater, classic one shining moment moment. Turned out to be a blow out in a pretty dull game. Would never have guessed a 20 point blowout.

Virginia will never live this down. ACC HA HA!
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Old 03-17-2018, 12:41 AM
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I knew it would happen someday and I thought it'd be one of those "where were you when it happened" kind of moments. Like a buzzer beater, classic one shining moment moment. Turned out to be a blow out in a pretty dull game. Would never have guessed a 20 point blowout.

Virginia will never live this down. ACC HA HA!
Those players are going to be the laughingstock of campus on Monday. Too bad their spring break was last week!
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Old 03-17-2018, 01:47 AM
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There will be no perfect brackets this year,...
There will never be a perfect bracket. The odds are astronomical.
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Old 03-17-2018, 02:29 AM
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134 people bet this long shot with one bookie, bet $100 to win $2500. The bookie lost over $320,000.



Dennis

REALLY——now I can’t believe players like on Virginia who could make millions more n the NBA would ever throw a game——I’m intrigued IF there’s a link:


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Old 03-17-2018, 04:44 AM
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There will never be a perfect bracket. The odds are astronomical.
But there have been.
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Old 03-17-2018, 06:24 AM
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No, low seeds absolutely shouldn't get free byes just because. The rankings aren't real: The game is. If you can't even beat a 15 or 16 seed, even in a squeaker, then your ranking was wrong.
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Old 03-17-2018, 06:44 AM
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There will be no perfect brackets this year, mighty Casey has struck out
Didn't hurt my bracket one bit.


Because for the first time in about 30 years, I didn't fill even one out this year. Broke a streak back to before there were 64 teams.
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Old 03-17-2018, 08:21 AM
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No, low seeds absolutely shouldn't get free byes just because. The rankings aren't real: The game is. If you can't even beat a 15 or 16 seed, even in a squeaker, then your ranking was wrong.
Howard Johnson is right!
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Old 03-17-2018, 08:28 AM
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There will never be a perfect bracket. The odds are astronomical.
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Originally Posted by FoieGrasIsEvil View Post
But there have been.
I'm rather skeptical of this claim.

From here:
Quote:
The odds of picking a perfect bracket in the NCAA men's basketball tournament are really, really small. So small, in fact, that many mathematicians differ on the actual estimation of the odds.

Some believe it's as low as 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (or 1 in 9.2 quintillion, for those who skipped the last 18 digits), while others, including Jeff Bergen, a professor at DePaul, think it's as "high" as 1 in 128 billion. Either way, picking all 63 games (excluding the First Four games) correctly is next to impossible.
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Old 03-17-2018, 09:51 AM
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I'm rather skeptical of this claim.

From here:
Those calculated odds assume a 50-50 chance in each game. Those are far off in the early rounds
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Old 03-17-2018, 10:05 AM
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Those calculated odds assume a 50-50 chance in each game. Those are far off in the early rounds
The 1 in 9.2 quintillion, yes, but even the lowest estimate is 1 in 128 billion.
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Old 03-17-2018, 11:23 AM
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If I didn't know the rankings, I would not have called this an upset. UMBC looked like a much better team, period.
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Old 03-17-2018, 12:08 PM
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Normally Id rail against this and demand #1 and #2 seeds get an automatic bye in this round but this game wasnt even close. Its not like the #1 team in the country lost in a fluke buzzer beater.

What the hell happened to Virginia??? What a bunch of losers, chokers and quitters and a disgrace to basketball. Their coach needs to be fired and the entire team cut. If I was an NBA Coach Id never draft any of these jokers.


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They do tend to have a cavalier attitude.
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Old 03-17-2018, 12:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Robot Arm View Post
"There will never be a perfect bracket. The odds are astronomical."

Originally Posted by FoieGrasIsEvil View Post
"But there have been."

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robot Arm View Post
I'm rather skeptical of this claim.
There has not been anything anywhere near picking a full bracket, at least in official records of betting agencies. Even the odds of picking the entire first round are staggering. This goes into a more detailed report:

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...streak-we-know

According to that article, in over 18 years of offering the full bracket challenge, Yahoo Sports says no one even picked the entire first round until 2014, when Brad Binder picked the first 36 games (1st round and 4 others). Last year, however, over 30 people got the first round right, and the top picker got 39, the current record.

This autistic teen ran the first two rounds in 2010 but was not entered in a paid bracket bet.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/spor...-88916437.html

Dennis
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Old 03-17-2018, 01:01 PM
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They do tend to have a cavalier attitude.
Wah wah.
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Old 03-17-2018, 06:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Robot Arm View Post
"There will never be a perfect bracket. The odds are astronomical."

Originally Posted by FoieGrasIsEvil View Post
"But there have been."



There has not been anything anywhere near picking a full bracket, at least in official records of betting agencies. Even the odds of picking the entire first round are staggering. This goes into a more detailed report:

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...streak-we-know

According to that article, in over 18 years of offering the full bracket challenge, Yahoo Sports says no one even picked the entire first round until 2014, when Brad Binder picked the first 36 games (1st round and 4 others). Last year, however, over 30 people got the first round right, and the top picker got 39, the current record.

This autistic teen ran the first two rounds in 2010 but was not entered in a paid bracket bet.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/spor...-88916437.html

Dennis
For some reason I thought that it'd happened a couple times. How hard can it be? I get pretty close every year!

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Old 03-17-2018, 09:00 PM
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What the hell happened to Virginia??? What a bunch of losers, chokers and quitters and a disgrace to basketball.
Lets not forget childish. I get that the question was dumb, so was losing to a #16 so convincingly. Wow.
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Old 03-17-2018, 11:04 PM
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Those players are going to be the laughingstock of campus on Monday. Too bad their spring break was last week!
Now that they have some unexpected free time on their hands, they can take another one.
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Old 03-18-2018, 06:42 AM
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Lets not forget childish. I get that the question was dumb, so was losing to a #16 so convincingly. Wow.
Quote:
Q. [to a UVa player] "Were you aware that a 16 had never won before?"
A. "I think everyone's aware of that. Thanks for bringing that up again"
What was the non-childish answer?

To me, that's about as polite a response as one could expect.

And actually, a 16 had won before. (Fight fiercely, Harvard! ) A men's 16 had never won before.
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Old 03-18-2018, 09:44 AM
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134 people bet this long shot with one bookie, bet $100 to win $2500. The bookie lost over $320,000.

Dennis
Paying out for unlikely wins is not a "loss", the bets are designed so the bookie wins no matter who wins the game, that's what odds are about. That bookie probably made ten times that from the people who bet on Virginia. Unlikely winners are probably better for bookies than if the favorite wins.
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Old 03-18-2018, 02:08 PM
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That's if the bookie is doing his job well. But I can believe that there might be some inexperienced bookie somewhere who wasn't successful in keeping his action balanced, and didn't worry too much about it because it was a "sure thing".
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Old 03-18-2018, 02:33 PM
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There's something that everybody seems to be forgetting; one of Virginia's star players, De'Andre Hunter, was out with an injury. The one time a 16 beat a 1 in the women's tournament, the 1 (Stanford) had its two top players out. Yes, Virginia was still somewhat heavily favored, but apparently the bookies underestimated the effect of Hunter's absence.
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Old 03-18-2018, 06:49 PM
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I've probably read a dozen articles about this game. They all acknowledge the absence of a starting player and they all feel it was just not that great a factor. UMBA dominated virtually every important aspect of the game. They brought an "A" game that no one knew they had. I think their next game just started, we'll see how they do now that the cat is out of the bag.

Dennis
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Old 03-18-2018, 07:42 PM
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Here are the complete Virginia - UMBC game stats:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...meId=401025813

Field goal percentage: 54% vs 41%

3 point percentage: 50% vs 18%

Free throw percentage: 71% vs 50%

Rebounds: 33 vs 22

Assists: 16 vs 5

Dennis
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Old 03-19-2018, 12:11 AM
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Paying out for unlikely wins is not a "loss", the bets are designed so the bookie wins no matter who wins the game, that's what odds are about. That bookie probably made ten times that from the people who bet on Virginia. Unlikely winners are probably better for bookies than if the favorite wins.
They try to set odds so that there's equal action on both sides. They don't always succeed. Bookies would have lost many millions if McGregor had beaten Mayweather, for example.
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Old 03-19-2018, 09:41 AM
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What was the non-childish answer?

To me, that's about as polite a response as one could expect.

And actually, a 16 had won before. (Fight fiercely, Harvard! ) A men's 16 had never won before.
The non childish answer would have been "Yes" or "Of course."

I guess it's the "thanks for bringing that up again" that rubbed me the wrong way.
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Old 03-19-2018, 09:54 AM
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Here are the complete Virginia - UMBC game stats:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...meId=401025813

Field goal percentage: 54% vs 41%

3 point percentage: 50% vs 18%

Free throw percentage: 71% vs 50%

Rebounds: 33 vs 22

Assists: 16 vs 5

Dennis
To me, the key stat was 3-pointers. I watched the second half of the game (should have gone to bed, but you know, potential history in the making...), and I think the eye test bears out the stat:
If Virginia had hit three pointers at the same percentage as UMBC, even with all the garbage-time points by UMBC, Virginia would have won by one point. Yeah, maybe UMBCs defense had something to do with a lower UVa shooting %, but it's not like UMBC's threes were all wide-open uncontested shots taken by peak Steph Curry; there's no way they hit 50% of threes in a rematch. And a chunk of that 20-point margin was from late-game UVa desperate gambling.

Which says,
1. UVa didn't play that badly; sometimes the rim just likes the other team more, and
2. UMBC did play a hell of a game; even without shot-luck they played UVa basically even.
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Old 03-19-2018, 01:13 PM
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The thing with Virginia (and with Wisconsin earlier, with Bennett's dad coaching) is they are not built for the Tournament, but the regular season, where teams don't play as hard. Defense only gets you so far. You have to be able to stay focused when you are trying to score and don't have scorers, but it's hard. Your defense falls apart.
If you look in the rafters at Wisconsin (who was coached by Bennett's long-term assistant after Bennett "retired") and Virginia you'll see lots of regular season banners but little from the Tournament. They seem to think that having to score is some sort of weakness.
Bo Ryan at Wisconsin seemed to finally figure it out. His teams started to show up in the Final Four but they only made the title game when they had two NBA First-Round draft picks. Both guys could create their own shots and score enough to keep their teams close.
You saw the old-school Bennetts vs. UMBC.
I've got to remember to never pick a team that isn't balanced or at least has one offensive star. Two preferably so the opposition can't just collapse on one **cough-Arizona-cough**. Syracuse is an example of a great defensive team that always has a scorer around.
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Old 03-19-2018, 01:26 PM
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Speaking of Syracuse, has a play-in team ever advanced this far in the tournament? I mean, this is a team that many howled over even being included in it, and the naysayers had a point...'Cuse had a terrible season.
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Old 03-19-2018, 02:23 PM
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Perhaps it's time to stop the carving of Tom Izzo's mug on Mt. Rushmore. For the past few years, his teams have been great underachievers. This year's team was supposed to be world beaters, but they just didn't gel and it seemed like for all their talented players, they were perpetually overmatched. He's a great guy and all, but it seems like his run of Final Four appearances isn't coming back.
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Old 03-19-2018, 02:43 PM
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Speaking of Syracuse, has a play-in team ever advanced this far in the tournament? I mean, this is a team that many howled over even being included in it, and the naysayers had a point...'Cuse had a terrible season.
No. First time.
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Old 03-19-2018, 02:50 PM
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The 188th ranked team in the nation becomes the first ever win by a 16 seed team.
I am very smug and proud to say that I predicted at this very web site that a 16 seed would beat a 1 seed in "the foreseeable future" just two days before it happened!!

Unfortunately, I then went on to carefully explain why I thought Virginia was going to win the national championship. Oops!! LOL
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Old 03-19-2018, 03:22 PM
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Interesting that Virginia is the victim of two of the largest upsets in basketball history:

Chaminade over #1 Virginia in 1982

I guess you could argue which is bigger. The #16 vs #1 has more exposure, but hard to beat a NAIA team beating Ralph Sampson (but I'm a homer)
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  #43  
Old 03-19-2018, 03:40 PM
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Perhaps it's time to stop the carving of Tom Izzo's mug on Mt. Rushmore. For the past few years, his teams have been great underachievers. This year's team was supposed to be world beaters, but they just didn't gel and it seemed like for all their talented players, they were perpetually overmatched. He's a great guy and all, but it seems like his run of Final Four appearances isn't coming back.
To be fair, a lot of the top seeds in the tournament underachieved (or were outmatched, unprepared, whatever) this tournament. And MSU's futility is shared by other prominent programs, like Virginia and Kansas (although they're obviously still alive...for now).
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Old 03-19-2018, 03:58 PM
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Speaking of Syracuse, has a play-in team ever advanced this far in the tournament? I mean, this is a team that many howled over even being included in it, and the naysayers had a point...'Cuse had a terrible season.
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No. First time.
Wrong. VCU made the Final Four as a First Four team in 2011. This was the first year that they expanded to 68 teams, VCU was also a 11 seed play-in. Prior to that all play-ins were 16 seeds, so obviously no, there had never been one of those to advance past the first round.

Last edited by Omniscient; 03-19-2018 at 04:00 PM.
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Old 03-19-2018, 06:38 PM
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Speaking of play-ins, why do they get an 11 seed now? If they have to play to get into the tournament, then they weren't selected with the original 64 teams, which to me should mean that they always get a 16 seed having been the "worst" teams to squeak in.
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Old 03-19-2018, 07:24 PM
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Speaking of play-ins, why do they get an 11 seed now? If they have to play to get into the tournament, then they weren't selected with the original 64 teams, which to me should mean that they always get a 16 seed having been the "worst" teams to squeak in.
Not really. There are still 16-seed play in games too, 2 of each.

The 68 teams are made up of automatic bids to conference winners and then at-large bids. There are 32 automatic bids right now. Figure at least 8-10 of those are "power" conferences where the team is a lock even if they lose their conference championship game. That means there are around ~24 bids that are granted to smaller schools that earned their spot in the dance, but usually are not as well regarded as the "bubble teams".

There has been a lot of backlash towards effectively punishing the bottom rung of automatic bid teams by making them play on Tuesday in Dayton. For most of those schools the only time they ever get any recognition is when they play on Thursday-Friday of the dance and it's inherently unfair to diminish these schools simply to squeeze in 4 more power conference teams that kinda but not totally sucked like Arizona St, Syracuse and UCLA.

When the NCAA expanded from 66 to 68 teams they split the difference. Giving 4 16-seeds (aka minor conference automatic bid teams) a play-in and then 4 11-seeds (aka power conference bubble teams) a play-in.

In my opinion all 8 play-in teams should be at-large teams as a rule. If you seed them all at 16, that means the 1-seeds probably get stuck playing a middling power school, sometimes a conference rival, in the first round which will be unpopular. So putting them all at 11-seeds or 12-seeds is probably the right move.
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Old 03-20-2018, 02:12 AM
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Interesting that Virginia is the victim of two of the largest upsets in basketball history:

Chaminade over #1 Virginia in 1982

I guess you could argue which is bigger. The #16 vs #1 has more exposure, but hard to beat a NAIA team beating Ralph Sampson (but I'm a homer)
I hadn't been following the NCAA tournament at all, but when my wife told me UVa had been seeded #1 and lost, my first thought was, "who were they playing, Chaminade?"
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Old 03-20-2018, 12:20 PM
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The non childish answer would have been "Yes" or "Of course."

I guess it's the "thanks for bringing that up again" that rubbed me the wrong way.
At least it wasn't "While you're at it, why don't you give me a nice paper cut and pour lemon juice on it?"
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Old 03-20-2018, 12:23 PM
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A childish question like that one deserves a childish answer. Under the circumstances, that answer was diplomatic.
  #50  
Old 03-20-2018, 12:32 PM
Saint Cad Saint Cad is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: N of Denver & S of Sanity
Posts: 12,684
Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniscient View Post

Virginia will never live this down.
This isnt even the worst upset of a Virginia team. Remember when they lost to Chaminade?
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