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  #151  
Old 09-01-2017, 11:27 AM
dalej42 dalej42 is offline
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Joe Williams, RB-SF


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  #152  
Old 09-01-2017, 12:48 PM
RetroVertigo RetroVertigo is offline
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Pick 3.02 Curtis Samuel WR Car

PM to be sent for next up and next pick
  #153  
Old 09-01-2017, 01:14 PM
dalej42 dalej42 is offline
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James Conner, RB, Steelers
  #154  
Old 09-01-2017, 03:52 PM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is offline
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Nobody wants Vereen?
  #155  
Old 09-01-2017, 03:56 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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Does he do any tricks?
  #156  
Old 09-01-2017, 04:15 PM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is offline
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He catches lots of passes and rushes for 10 yards on 3rd and 12.
  #157  
Old 09-01-2017, 05:55 PM
Ellis Dee Ellis Dee is offline
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Sorry for the delay. After no-brainers in the first and second round, I had to finally sit down and do my research. I compiled and ranked 80+ prospects, and noted who was already taken and when. (We should rename Omni the Homer Reach King.)

I'm taking the BPA on my board, which wasn't a tough choice when google's first result turned up PFF splooging all over him for his awesomeness as a dynasty prospect. Seriously, though, the graph near the bottom of that page is almost comical.

Carlos Henderson, WR, DEN


For the new page:

1.01 Jules [from dale] - Leonard Fournette, RB, Jax
1.02 Retro - Dalvin Cook, RB, Min
1.03 Jules - Joe Mixon, RB, Cin
1.04 Ellis - Christian McCaffrey, RB, CAR
1.05 Beef [From RNATB] - Corey Davis, WR, TEN
1.06 RNATB [from Justin via SenorBeef] - Kareem Hunt, RB, KC
1.07 Hamlet - Mike Williams, WR, LA Chargers
1.08 Omni - Mitchell Trubisky, QB, CHI
1.09 Petey - Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oak
1.10 Stringer - John Ross, WR, CIN
1.11 Varlos - Alvin Kamara, RB, NO
1.12 Justin [from Beef] - Zay Jones, WR, BUF

2.01 Jules - [from dalej42] Marlon Mack, RB, IND
2.02 Retro - OJ Howard, TE, TB
2.03 Jules - Evan Engram, TE, NYG
2.04 Ellis [From Ellis via Beef] - David Njoku, TE, CLE
2.05 Beef [from RNATB via Varlos] - Samaje Perine, RB, WAS
2.06 RNATB [from Justin via Beef] - D'Onta Foreman, RB, HOU
2.07 Hamlet - Darren McFadden, RB, DAL
2.08 Omni - Tarik Cohen, RB, CHI
2.09 Petey - JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, PIT
2.10 Stringer - Jamaal Williams, RB, GB
2.11 RNATB [from Varlos] - Chris Godwin, WR, TB
2.12 Varlos [from Beef] - Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU

3.01 dale - Joe Williams, RB, SF
3.02 Retro - Curtis Samuel, WR, CAR
3.03 dale [from Jules] - James Conner, RB, PIT
3.04 Ellis - Carlos Henderson, WR, DEN
3.05 Beef [from RNATB]
3.06 Justin
3.07 Hamlet
3.08 Omni
3.09 Petey
3.10 Stringer
3.11 Retro [from Varlos]
3.12 Ellis [from Beef]

2018:
Varlos has SenorBeef's 2nd round pick
SenorBeef has Varlos' 3rd round pick

Misc:
Ellis Dee sends Isaiah Crowell to Beef for pick 2.04


PM to Beef sent
  #158  
Old 09-01-2017, 06:29 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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Well shit, I had this pick planned out but then 2 guys who I never expected to make it this far did. So do I go BPA, or do I go need...
  #159  
Old 09-01-2017, 06:32 PM
Jules Andre Jules Andre is offline
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While my guy is on the board, you can bank your pick for next year and get the rights to swap 2s. Your current pick for my 3 in 2018, and the pick swap rights. Standing offer until he's gone.
  #160  
Old 09-01-2017, 06:37 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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I'd be willing to drop down up to 4 picks for a decent offer, since I've got unexpectedly good players at this stage. But I won't hold up the draft waiting for an offer - just putting it out there while I think about it.
  #161  
Old 09-01-2017, 06:42 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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I gotta say if I snapped up the BPA guy this would be the best draft (relatively to where I started) this league has ever seen, I think.

I'm a little sad Stringer seems too disengaged to be enraged by how well I'm doing.

Last edited by SenorBeef; 09-01-2017 at 06:43 PM.
  #162  
Old 09-01-2017, 07:26 PM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is offline
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It's only a great draft if you count Ellis inexplicably handing you Crowell on a silver platter surrounded by watercress.
  #163  
Old 09-01-2017, 07:28 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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I mean, getting Crowell is part of it - I spent/traded a pick and got a player back, so my draft is Davis/Crowell/Perrine plus what could be the ~20th best prospect but I'll probably end up taking something else instead. A lot of sites have Corey Davis as the #1 prospect in the draft, and there are more top WR dynasty assets than RB in general.

Sorry for the delay. I've been watching video/looking at rankings for 2 straight hours. I get really into this shit.

Last edited by SenorBeef; 09-01-2017 at 07:29 PM.
  #164  
Old 09-01-2017, 07:56 PM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is offline
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*fapfapfapfap*
  #165  
Old 09-01-2017, 08:00 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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You want to see what I've been fapping to?

https://youtu.be/Ge2XzjdwfZ4?t=115

Alternate angle

https://youtu.be/7whWGQ5cOLg?t=470


What the fuck is that shit? That's crazy.
  #166  
Old 09-01-2017, 09:01 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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Alright, sorry for the delay, I tortured myself over this one.

3.05 - DeShone Kizer, QB, CLE

Justin is up. PM sent.
  #167  
Old 09-01-2017, 09:10 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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Alright, so there were 2 WRs and a RB that I was seriously considering there. They probably would've been BPA. But I've been running a roster with only Aaron Rodgers (and sometimes a bottom 5 scrub for emergencies) for years now. I'm loaded at RB and WR, I needed a QB.

So then it came down to Mahomes vs Kizer. Mahomes has ridiculous physical talent. And he came into the perfect situation - he can sit a year behind Smith and learn from Andy Reid, who can Favre-ize him and has as good a chance as anyone at taming down his ridiculously bad mechanics. The freakish thing about him is that he's so strong that even the worst mechanics in the world didn't stop him. They'd hurt him more in the NFL though against better awareness and smaller windows.

It was super tempting to take him because if Rodgers stays healthy I can wait for him to develop and see if he hits ridiculous ceiling.

But.... as I said, I have no QB at all on my roster otherwise. If Rodgers gets hurt, then having Mahomes sitting the year doesn't help. Kizer will start right away and be a decent fantasy starter if only because of the rushing yards.

Here's the thing, though. Kizer is actually really good. You guys will just assume I'm being a homer, but you won't find me praising any Browns in 20 years. I've pretty much said they've all sucked, or at best gave them tepid, specific praise for certain attributes. I knew Charlie Frye/Brady Quinn/Colt McCoy/Weeden/etc. were shit. I didn't try to prop them up.

Kizer is the first Browns QB that actually looks what a good QB should look like. He keeps his composure, keeps his eyes down field, has pocket awareness, has arm talent, and generally passes the eye test of what a good quarterback should look like.

"Oh but Browns QBs have sucked for 20 years lololol!" as if what happened to Tim Couch in 1999 has any relevance to what happens to Kizer in 2017. I also heard a lot of "ND hasn't produced a QB since Joe Montana!" - it's not the fucking school buildings that are producing quarterbacks. There's no ghosts that inhabit the quarterbacks. Teams and schools change coaching staffs, schemes, players all the time. The idea that such and such position for X team or Y school has sucked for 40 fucking years so there's no way someone succeeds is just an example of the desperate human need to put things into patterns and give agency to things that don't have agency.

I honestly think the Browns finally made a hit with Kizer and I have not said that in 20 years.
  #168  
Old 09-01-2017, 09:46 PM
Jules Andre Jules Andre is offline
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Lolbrowns. Ur da worst homer. Factory of Sadness etc.
  #169  
Old 09-02-2017, 01:05 AM
Omniscient Omniscient is offline
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Did you PM Justin?
  #170  
Old 09-02-2017, 01:51 AM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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Yeah, he hasn't been on since 6am.
  #171  
Old 09-02-2017, 07:55 AM
Justin_Bailey Justin_Bailey is offline
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I'm here.

I sent a pre-rank list to Varlos because I wasn't going to be near an Internet connection yesterday, but I guess he was occupied too.

Pick coming shortly.
  #172  
Old 09-02-2017, 08:00 AM
Justin_Bailey Justin_Bailey is offline
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OK, here we go...

3.06 - Aaron Jones (GB - RB)

PM to Hamlet sent.
  #173  
Old 09-02-2017, 08:54 AM
Hamlet Hamlet is offline
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Damn Senor Beef, its like your inside my head. We're in the same situation (one starting QB on the roster and then nothing), and that breakdown of Kizer vs. Mahomes was exactly what I was thinking. Does Kizer's immediate value as a starter this year outweigh the fact I think Mahomes has better physical tools and is, by far, in a better situation for long term success? I kinda want to thank you for making any of my hand-wringing moot by taking Kizer.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

Now, I would have made that call even if Kizer was available. They are both impressive physical talents, both capable physically of being a top tier NFL QB, and both with huge question marks about how they will transition to the NFL game. And since there is little to no way for guys like us to know what a player is really like in his brainpan, it becomes, to me, a matter of who do you trust to make that assessment. And, again just for me, it's pretty clear I'd much rather trust Andy Reid and the Chiefs than Hue Jackson and the Browns to decide which prospect is better and then to develop that prospect. Even if it means waiting awhile for him to actually be relevant.

I'll PM Omni.

Last edited by Hamlet; 09-02-2017 at 08:57 AM.
  #174  
Old 09-02-2017, 10:11 AM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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There's at least one important thing I left out of that analysis. We've seen Kizer be successful in a pro style system in ND in 2015. And in fact 2015 Kizer may have been the #1 overall pick in the draft. He regressed in 2016, but there are a lot of reasonable explanations for that - losing a lot of talent to the NFL, much weaker O-line and receivers, a worse defense, a coach that seemed to fuck with his assignments and schemes and hang him out to dry.

Mahomes comes from an air raid system that has never produced a successful QB. This isn't the same thing as I railed against above, it's not X school or Y team has never produced a QB. Scheme affects how you're trained and how you learn the game and how it utilizes your talents and masks your weaknesses, so obviously there can be people who are successful in one scheme and not in another one. This isn't to say that he can't be successful - and Reid and sitting behind Smith gives him as good a chance as anyone. But it's a significant red flag for projecting his transition.

He's also a mechanical mess. He's such a physical specimen that he makes up for horrific mechanics with pure strength and skill. He's throwing bombs off his back foot constantly that often make a big play. But that sort of shit that will fly in college will get you killed a lot. Favre is a good comparison even if he manages to become a good QB, because he's going to be a guy who's so sure of his physical talent that he's going to make questionable decisions thinking that he and only he can pull it off. If he can more often than not, you get Brett Favre. If not, you get... I don't know, Jeff George?

Kizer is a better rusher which is fantasy relevant. Kizer is also no slouch in the physical gifts department and has pretty good tools, just not "holy shit, how did he do that" tools like Mahome. And while I think Mahomes is in the better situation with Reid, Hue Jackson is no slouch when it comes to developing QBs - it's not like he got drafted into a team coached by Romeo Crennel/Eric Mangini/etc.

One other issue is - what if Alex Smith takes the chiefs deep into the playoffs this year? He'll be under contract next year, do they move on even after going to the AFCC or maybe even superbowl, or does Alex Smith get another year? I think Mahomes will start next year, but it's not a guarantee, and a year or two is a long time to go without a backup QB for your team.
  #175  
Old 09-02-2017, 10:36 AM
Justin_Bailey Justin_Bailey is offline
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Even though I've got Jameis Winston stashed as my Quarterback of the Future, I was seriously considering Mahomes at 3.06. He's got the ability to be a great quarterback and Alex Smith is definitely in the twilight of his career. But my RB needs are much more pressing and Aaron Jones had a great preseason.

I think Trubisky might actually become better than Mahomes or Kizer, and I was a little shocked he went in the first round. Oh well, I'm pretty happy with Zay Jones there. With Watkins out and Boldin retired, he officially becomes THE MAN on that team. I know Buffalo doesn't have anyone to throw to him, but he had a good preseason too, so I've got high hopes and he might produce just due to the sheer lack of other options.

Now, nobody take either of the guys I'm eyeing for 4.06 so I can be happy with my draft.
  #176  
Old 09-02-2017, 10:53 AM
Hamlet Hamlet is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorBeef View Post
There's at least one important thing I left out of that analysis. We've seen Kizer be successful in a pro style system in ND in 2015. And in fact 2015 Kizer may have been the #1 overall pick in the draft. He regressed in 2016, but there are a lot of reasonable explanations for that - losing a lot of talent to the NFL, much weaker O-line and receivers, a worse defense, a coach that seemed to fuck with his assignments and schemes and hang him out to dry.

Mahomes comes from an air raid system that has never produced a successful QB. This isn't the same thing as I railed against above, it's not X school or Y team has never produced a QB. Scheme affects how you're trained and how you learn the game and how it utilizes your talents and masks your weaknesses, so obviously there can be people who are successful in one scheme and not in another one. This isn't to say that he can't be successful - and Reid and sitting behind Smith gives him as good a chance as anyone. But it's a significant red flag for projecting his transition.

He's also a mechanical mess. He's such a physical specimen that he makes up for horrific mechanics with pure strength and skill. He's throwing bombs off his back foot constantly that often make a big play. But that sort of shit that will fly in college will get you killed a lot. Favre is a good comparison even if he manages to become a good QB, because he's going to be a guy who's so sure of his physical talent that he's going to make questionable decisions thinking that he and only he can pull it off. If he can more often than not, you get Brett Favre. If not, you get... I don't know, Jeff George?

Kizer is a better rusher which is fantasy relevant. Kizer is also no slouch in the physical gifts department and has pretty good tools, just not "holy shit, how did he do that" tools like Mahome. And while I think Mahomes is in the better situation with Reid, Hue Jackson is no slouch when it comes to developing QBs - it's not like he got drafted into a team coached by Romeo Crennel/Eric Mangini/etc.

One other issue is - what if Alex Smith takes the chiefs deep into the playoffs this year? He'll be under contract next year, do they move on even after going to the AFCC or maybe even superbowl, or does Alex Smith get another year? I think Mahomes will start next year, but it's not a guarantee, and a year or two is a long time to go without a backup QB for your team.
I don't want to talk you out of Kizer. I don't think he's so much further along developmentally as Mahomes as you think, and, yes, Mahomes is a complete rebuild, but, to me, so is Kizer. And I'm not sure that Kizer's college stats, relationship with Brian Kelly, his benching, and his attitude are great indications of his ability to develop.

But what the fuck do I know. I just know that I would trust the Chiefs scouting department and Andy Reid to select and develop a QB more than I would the Browns and Hue Jackson.
  #177  
Old 09-02-2017, 10:59 AM
Hamlet Hamlet is offline
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Originally Posted by Justin_Bailey View Post
I think Trubisky might actually become better than Mahomes or Kizer, and I was a little shocked he went in the first round.
I think Trubisky has a higher floor, and close to if not as high a ceiling, as Kizer and Mahomes, so yeah, I would have much rather had Trubisky. But I wasn't going to take him in the first round.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Justin
Oh well, I'm pretty happy with Zay Jones there. With Watkins out and Boldin retired, he officially becomes THE MAN on that team. I know Buffalo doesn't have anyone to throw to him, but he had a good preseason too, so I've got high hopes and he might produce just due to the sheer lack of other options.
I love me some Zay Jones, and he was, to me, clearly the next WR after Williams to take. The lack of a QB in Buffalo is troubling though.

Last edited by Hamlet; 09-02-2017 at 10:59 AM.
  #178  
Old 09-02-2017, 05:07 PM
Omniscient Omniscient is offline
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Kenny Golladay Det - WR

PM outbound.
  #179  
Old 09-02-2017, 05:19 PM
Omniscient Omniscient is offline
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Originally Posted by Hamlet View Post
I think Trubisky has a higher floor, and close to if not as high a ceiling, as Kizer and Mahomes, so yeah, I would have much rather had Trubisky. But I wasn't going to take him in the first round.
I'm in the same boat as the others. I have Luck as my QB and then shit a.k.a. Bortles. I've watched Trubisky all preseason and I've been impressed. He looks legit, and I really didn't draft him as a straight up homer pick. It's a major need and I really thought he was BPA, I'm down on all the WRs this year and the RBs with guaranteed work are all off the board. I think he's fully 2 rounds better than Watson, Kizer or Mahomes and he'll be starting by week 8. No way he was coming back to me in the 2nd.

Last edited by Omniscient; 09-02-2017 at 05:19 PM.
  #180  
Old 09-02-2017, 05:22 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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I think there's about a 90-95% chance he'd have been there for you in the second. Who was going to take him? No one touched a QB till Varlos at 2.12 and I don't think anyone but you views Trubisky as so much better than the rest that they'd have taken him a round earlier than they took another QB.

Ellis may have unfortunately won the record for the shortest space between draft pick and IR.

"Broncos placed rookie WR Carlos Henderson on injured reserve with a torn left thumb ligament, ending his season."
  #181  
Old 09-02-2017, 05:28 PM
Jules Andre Jules Andre is offline
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He was definitely going to be there in the 2nd. Easily the 3rd, too. Looking at it, probably the 4th.
  #182  
Old 09-02-2017, 05:30 PM
Justin_Bailey Justin_Bailey is offline
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Originally Posted by SenorBeef View Post
I think there's about a 90-95% chance he'd have been there for you in the second. Who was going to take him? No one touched a QB till Varlos at 2.12 and I don't think anyone but you views Trubisky as so much better than the rest that they'd have taken him a round earlier than they took another QB.
If I hadn't traded my 2.06 to you, I probably would have taken him then.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorBeef View Post
Ellis may have unfortunately won the record for the shortest space between draft pick and IR.

"Broncos placed rookie WR Carlos Henderson on injured reserve with a torn left thumb ligament, ending his season."
Way back when, I drafted Charles Sims when he was already on IR because the Bucs were so high on him. Unfortunately for me, Doug Martin came all the way back from his injuries and Sims has been the third down back ever since.
  #183  
Old 09-02-2017, 05:51 PM
Ellis Dee Ellis Dee is offline
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Ellis may have unfortunately won the record for the shortest space between draft pick and IR.
Doh!

Do I get a supplemental pick for him?

Similarly, do I get a supplemental pick for Kenneth Dixon?
  #184  
Old 09-02-2017, 05:53 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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I think Varlos said we'd do the same thing last year, where at the end of the regular draft we'd have a mini-IR draft where you get a pick for every player on IR. Sort of a first dibs on the waiver wire almost.
  #185  
Old 09-02-2017, 05:57 PM
Petey Petey is offline
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I was thinking about this guy last round and he's still here.

3.09 Cooper Kupp, WR, LA Rams

I will send PM.
  #186  
Old 09-02-2017, 06:02 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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3.01 dale - Joe Williams, RB, SF
3.02 Retro - Curtis Samuel, WR, CAR
3.03 dale [from Jules] - James Conner, RB, PIT
3.04 Ellis - Carlos Henderson, WR, DEN
3.05 Beef [from RNATB] - DeShone Kizer, QB, CLE
3.06 Justin - Aaron Jones, RB, GB
3.07 Hamlet - Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC
3.08 Omni - Kenny Golladay, WR, DET
3.09 Petey - Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
3.10 Stringer
3.11 Retro [from Varlos]
3.12 Ellis [from Beef]

And as far as I can tell, there have been no trades involving 4th round picks since the draft started, which means the next round will be

4.01 dale
4.02 Varlos [from Retro]
4.03 Jules
4.04 Ellis
4.05 RNATB
4.06 Justin
4.07 Hamlet
4.08 Omni
4.09 Petey
4.10 Stringer
4.11 RNATB [from Varlos]
4.12 Justin [from Beef]

Last edited by SenorBeef; 09-02-2017 at 06:04 PM.
  #187  
Old 09-02-2017, 06:04 PM
Omniscient Omniscient is offline
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Originally Posted by SenorBeef View Post
I think there's about a 90-95% chance he'd have been there for you in the second. Who was going to take him? No one touched a QB till Varlos at 2.12 and I don't think anyone but you views Trubisky as so much better than the rest that they'd have taken him a round earlier than they took another QB.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jules Andre View Post
He was definitely going to be there in the 2nd. Easily the 3rd, too. Looking at it, probably the 4th.
Apart from what Justin said, you guys are nuts. Look at past drafts, EJ Manuel went at 2.02, Bridgewater went 1.03, Bortles went 2.02, Manziel went 2.10 (!), Mariota went 1.09, Winston went 2.05. Trubisky may be below Winston and Mariota as a prospect, but he's in there with the rest of those guys for sure. Trubisky was way above the other 3 in this draft as an NFL prospect, and while fantasy players often diverge on opinions with the real GMs, in a dynasty league it's less so.

Trubisky might flop and individuals may dislike him as a prospect, but there was no chance I was getting him in the second based on the history of this league. Kamara was the only guy I even debated on there and he's behind AP and Ingram for at least the first half the season, so it wasn't that tough a choice.
  #188  
Old 09-02-2017, 06:05 PM
Omniscient Omniscient is offline
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I think Varlos said we'd do the same thing last year, where at the end of the regular draft we'd have a mini-IR draft where you get a pick for every player on IR. Sort of a first dibs on the waiver wire almost.
I lost Tajae Sharpe today, so I'll be on that list.
  #189  
Old 09-02-2017, 06:07 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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Who specifically was going to take Trubisky before you in the 2nd? Justin said he would, but he never picked ahead of you in the 2nd round in this draft, since the pick was traded last year. You can't say that he'd for sure be gone before your 2nd pick when you can't identify someone who was likely to have taken him. I guess you could maybe say Hamlet would've taken him with 2.07 but I doubt it. Certainly I don't consider him with 2.05. The fantasy world in general doesn't think much more highly of Trubisky than Mahomes or Kizer, so I think he'd have gone somewhere around where they did, mid third. Very likely after your 2.08 pick, anyway.

You're right that Bridgewater and Manuel are weird picks, though, so I guess anything is possible there. Bortles was probably a better prospect than Trubisky, Mariota and Winston definitely were.

Last edited by SenorBeef; 09-02-2017 at 06:11 PM.
  #190  
Old 09-02-2017, 06:08 PM
Omniscient Omniscient is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Petey View Post
I was thinking about this guy last round and he's still here.

3.09 Cooper Kupp, WR, LA Rams

I will send PM.
Everyone looks at him and remembers Goff is his QB (who went 1.12 last year b.t.w.)
  #191  
Old 09-02-2017, 06:14 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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Fantasypros which is a good consensus ranker site combining 16 (default) fantasy sites rankings puts Trubisky at 37, 2 spots ahead of Kizer and 7-8 spots behind Watson and Mahomes. So he's the third prospect averaging out 16 expert dynasty rankings, not the best QB by far.
  #192  
Old 09-02-2017, 06:14 PM
Petey Petey is offline
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How many are on the roster? Is it 25? Because I have 22 keepers, but I have 2 guys on IR.
I had thought I would have 2 more picks, but are we doing a supplemental draft?
  #193  
Old 09-02-2017, 06:22 PM
Omniscient Omniscient is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorBeef View Post
Who specifically was going to take Trubisky before you in the 2nd? Justin said he would, but he never picked ahead of you in the 2nd round in this draft, since the pick was traded last year. You can't say that he'd for sure be gone before your 2nd pick when you can't identify someone who was likely to have taken him. I guess you could maybe say Hamlet would've taken him with 2.07 but I doubt it. Certainly I don't consider him with 2.05. The fantasy world in general doesn't think much more highly of Trubisky than Mahomes or Kizer, so I think he'd have gone somewhere around where they did, mid third. Very likely after your 2.08 pick, anyway.

You're right that Bridgewater and Manuel are weird picks, though, so I guess anything is possible there. Bortles was probably a better prospect than Trubisky, Mariota and Winston definitely were.
You can't assume trades would have definitely still happened and I can't read anyone's mind, but based on history and people's rosters I think my assessment was sound. You, Varlos and Hamlet clearly were looking for QBs. RNATB needs a QB of the future. Dale's got Dak and nothing. HGH has Palmer and Tyrod. I'd say there's plenty of people who reasonably could be eager to take a QB early.
  #194  
Old 09-02-2017, 06:34 PM
Omniscient Omniscient is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorBeef View Post
Fantasypros which is a good consensus ranker site combining 16 (default) fantasy sites rankings puts Trubisky at 37, 2 spots ahead of Kizer and 7-8 spots behind Watson and Mahomes. So he's the third prospect averaging out 16 expert dynasty rankings, not the best QB by far.
Um, Trubisky went 2nd, Mahomes 10, Watson 12 and Kizer was 52 in the real draft. Feel pretty good about that data point. And where do you think Manuel, Bridgewater, Goff, Wentz and Manziel were on Fantasypros' dynasty rankings those years? Fantasypros has Trubisky below Shane Vereen (and Bortles!!!) in Dynasty rankings....so I'm going just take that with a grain of salt.

If Fantasypros Dynasty rankings are your trusted source, then I'm happy to trade you Bortles for Kizer straight up. That's a 45 spot value for you.

Last edited by Omniscient; 09-02-2017 at 06:36 PM.
  #195  
Old 09-02-2017, 06:38 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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If they were that eager to take a QB early, they'd have taken Watson or Mahomes probably, given that those are by a decent margin regarded as better prospects by dynasty ranking consensus.

I can link draft value lists all day that have Trubisky as the third or worse QB prospect and often by a decent margin. Your assertion that the dynasty world thinks Trubisky by far is the best prospect is simply wrong - I don't know if I've found a single source that thinks he's the #1 prospect.
  #196  
Old 09-02-2017, 06:46 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniscient View Post
Fantasypros has Trubisky below Shane Vereen (and Bortles!!!) in Dynasty rankings....so I'm going just take that with a grain of salt.

If Fantasypros Dynasty rankings are your trusted source, then I'm happy to trade you Bortles for Kizer straight up. That's a 45 spot value for you.
My comparison was clean, apples to apples. I used their rookie rankings to rate players against each other. How you rate producing players several years into their careers with rookies is a lot trickier than comparing rookies to rookies.

You're trying to sell us on the idea that Trubisky was far and away the #1 dynasty prospect this year and you had to get him early. That is clearly false - just google "fantasy rookie dynasty rankings" and see the dozens of sites that do not have him as the #1 prospect. Those rankings are also aware that he was drafted #2 overall in the real draft, and yet chose to value him after players who were drafted behind him.

Try to find me a rankings that lists Trubisky as #1, and tell me how many you went through first to get there.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Petey View Post
How many are on the roster? Is it 25? Because I have 22 keepers, but I have 2 guys on IR.
I had thought I would have 2 more picks, but are we doing a supplemental draft?
I think the way it works is that however many players you had on your roster at the start of the draft, subtract that from 25 and that's your number of picks. If you don't have 25 non-IR players by the end of the draft, you get to participate in the end of draft IR draft. May be a 2 pick max there, since that's how many IR slots there are in the league, although I don't see any reason that can't be 3+. As far as I know, there's no scenario in our current rules in which an IR player generates an extra normal draft pick - just a supplimental pick at the end of the draft.

Last edited by SenorBeef; 09-02-2017 at 06:47 PM.
  #197  
Old 09-02-2017, 06:50 PM
Omniscient Omniscient is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorBeef View Post
If they were that eager to take a QB early, they'd have taken Watson or Mahomes probably, given that those are by a decent margin regarded as better prospects by dynasty ranking consensus.

I can link draft value lists all day that have Trubisky as the third or worse QB prospect and often by a decent margin. Your assertion that the dynasty world thinks Trubisky by far is the best prospect is simply wrong - I don't know if I've found a single source that thinks he's the #1 prospect.
It only takes 1 person to disagree, and our league's history indicates that it's practically a certainty. Does the order of the top 5 WRs match the "consensus"....nope. RBs...nope. The entire first tier of rookie QBs has ALWAYS gone before the end of the 2nd.

Those dynasty rankings are generally shit and they don't account for the depth of our benches and other league settings. In most dynasty leagues guys like Cutler, Bradford, Bortles, Glennon and Garappolo are available on the waiver wire right now, so they dramatically undervalue QBs.

Last edited by Omniscient; 09-02-2017 at 06:52 PM.
  #198  
Old 09-02-2017, 06:51 PM
Stringer Stringer is offline
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3.10 - Taywan Taylor, WR, TEN

PMed RV.

Last edited by Stringer; 09-02-2017 at 06:52 PM.
  #199  
Old 09-02-2017, 07:04 PM
Omniscient Omniscient is offline
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Originally Posted by SenorBeef View Post
Try to find me a rankings that lists Trubisky as #1, and tell me how many you went through first to get there.
It's ironic that the "consensus" has Mahomes well above Kizer...yet you took him first. All while you're trying to argue that I should assume our draft will go 100% chalk allowing me to get my guy in the 2nd.
  #200  
Old 09-02-2017, 07:04 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniscient View Post
It only takes 1 person to disagree, and our league's history indicates that it's practically a certainty. Does the order of the top 5 WRs match the "consensus"....nope. RBs...nope.
Does this logic hold up if I drafted Kizer at 1.06? You'd think that was totally reasonable?

"No, but no one thinks Kizer is as good as Trubisky" doesn't hold up, since almost everyone thinks Trubisky is at best the third QB prospect this draft.

Quote:
The entire first tier of rookie QBs has ALWAYS gone before the end of the 2nd.
That's not always true. Unless you're kind of defining "first tier" to make your case. There are years in which one guy goes inexplicably highly and everyone else goes in a reasonable spot, which is what we have this year. 2014 for example - a crappy year. EJ Manuel went too high at 2.02. His tier-mate Geno Smith didn't go until round 3.

Quote:
Those dynasty rankings are generally shit and they don't account for the depth of our benches and other league settings. In most dynasty leagues guys like Cutler, Bradford, Bortles, Glennon and Garappolo are available on the waiver wire right now, so they dramatically undervalue QBs.
I think our league isn't particularly unusual. Most dynasty leagues go 20+ players deep I think.

In any case, you're right that it only takes one, but then that justifies any reach. The reality is that no one touched a QB - not even QB-needy teams, until the last pick of the second round. And since almost no rankings by anyone put Trubisky as the #1 prospect, it seems unlikely that he would've gone before then.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniscient View Post
It's ironic that the "consensus" has Mahomes well above Kizer...yet you took him first. All while you're trying to argue that I should assume our draft will go 100% chalk allowing me to get my guy in the 2nd.
Drafting Kizer with the 41st pick is about where he's expected to go. Drafting Trubisky with the #7 pick is about 30 picks ahead of where most people should think he should go. I'm not criticizing you for not rigidly adhering to a draft list, I'm criticizing the idea that Trubisky was such a hot commodity that you had to reach for him at least one full round early, and part of substantiating that idea is pointing out that almost no one rated Trubisky as the best dynasty prospect.

Last edited by SenorBeef; 09-02-2017 at 07:06 PM.
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