Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #51  
Old 09-18-2018, 04:10 AM
Ambivalid's Avatar
Ambivalid Ambivalid is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: In my head
Posts: 13,121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Feldon View Post
Is full compliance even possible, let alone desirable? Like, I saw a story saying that there were a million people in the evacuation zones in South Carolina. Would it really have been a good thing if they all tried to leave? I'm thinking that things would break down pretty quickly (possibly in a catastrophic way) if a mandatory evacuation was actually treated as mandatory by the residents. In that case, it would be pretty twisted to punish the people who stayed. It would be like punishing third class passengers for having to get fished out of the water after the Titanic sank.
And giving a blanket evacuation order to everyone is an example of "equal but unfair" in that it leaves no recourse for those who lack the means to evacuate but to break the law. It's reminiscent of our traffic laws.
  #52  
Old 09-18-2018, 08:20 AM
Isosleepy Isosleepy is offline
Friend of Cecil
 
Join Date: Jul 1999
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 1,167
I still take issue with the notion that ignoring a mandatory evacuation order is reprehensible, or even stupid. For some in the evacuation zone, not leaving is probably stupid. If you are fortunate enough to have a first-fourth row house on or just behind the beach, and 8+’ storm surge is predicted, you should go. If your house is 300 yards from the river:go. But if you look at zone “B” in Georgetown county, heavily stressed to be a “ get out, or play with your life” zone, pretty much nothing happened. Again.

The notion that a government evacuation order should override individuals’ own assessments of the situation is wrong to me. Some people will make dumb choices, sure. But that is a part of life. And we don’t fill in all back yard swimming pools, or take away all car keys either, even though both would mean minimizing avoidable injury and death.

If you stay, you risk emergency services not bring available to you, and that should be part of your decision matrix. You may be without power for days or longer. You may even be an idiot in a van by the river. But deciding to stay should not be criminalized, or even derided.
  #53  
Old 09-18-2018, 09:47 AM
Spiderman's Avatar
Spiderman Spiderman is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: somewhere East of there
Posts: 9,477
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambivalid View Post
And giving a blanket evacuation order to everyone is an example of "equal but unfair" in that it leaves no recourse for those who lack the means to evacuate but to break the law. It's reminiscent of our traffic laws.
What do the local governments provide for those without the means to evacuate? In the cities one doesn't need a car because of available public transit & high density of services (you can walk to the store). Were any of the towns providing any busing to shelters?

I heard one of the colleges (UNC-Wilmington?) shut down the dorms for the weekend; many/most students don't have a car. What about those that don't live locally? Assuming I had a child there, I'm 8-10 hours away...& that's with interstates that are going both ways, they made some roads exit only & I couldn't drive south on those interstates. What about gas; could I fill up my tank or were the stations empty/closed? Could I afford a last-minute plane ticket of probably > $1000 for my hypothetical child?
  #54  
Old 09-18-2018, 10:10 AM
bump bump is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Dallas, TX
Posts: 15,670
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bayaker View Post
While definitely heartbreaking, that story has nothing to do with evacuation for a hurricane. Hurricane Harvey hit Rockport, TX - about 150 miles southwest of Houston. My inlaws evacuated from Rockport to my house in the Houston area for safety. The flooding in Houston was because TS Harvey meandered up the coast and parked itself in the area, dropping record-breaking rains. There were no dangers from wind, no storm surge, and no hurricane evacuation order or even a suggestion of one for Houston.
Exactly. And for some colossal percentage of the 4 million plus people living in the Houston area, things were just fine- wet, but fine.

The thing with hurricanes is that for an effective evacuation order, they have to give the order with enough advance warning that people can actually prepare and clear out. But our predictions are such that if they issue them at that time, they're going to catch a pretty good number of people who really don't need to evacuate because the hurricane makes landfall nowhere near them, or decreased in intensity (Florence), etc... Or just because the authorities have no experience with them and have an overabundance of caution; had Florence made landfall on the Texas Gulf Coast as a Cat 1 hurricane, I'd be surprised if there would be ANY evacuation orders whatsoever.

So people tend to be kind of skeptical unless they are thinking that the hurricane is going to hit them dead center, and it's a serious storm.
  #55  
Old 09-18-2018, 10:32 AM
bordelond's Avatar
bordelond bordelond is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: La Rive Ouest
Posts: 9,792
Hurricanes in the Southeastern US get regarded much the same way as earthquakes (really, tremors) do in California.

To me, if I go to California, every tremor is a "We're gonna DIE!" moment. Every tremble is 1906 San Francisco or 1994 Northridge. I'm not used to tremors. I don't "know" them. I haven't been through hundreds of them. To me, my instinct is that if the ground shakes even a little, buildings are coming down. Meanwhile, native Californians get a chuckle over my skittishness.

Hurricanes and tropical storms (especially the latter) are sort of like that. People not from down here often think first, second, and third of Andrew- and Katrina-level storms when they think of "hurricanes". That widespread devastation, buildings flattened, 100,000s without homes, etc. is the typical default hurricane. In fact, people who are raised down here have memories of going outside and playing in the winds (sheets of cardboard and roller skates!) during hurricanes and tropical storms. Of days off of school with no light but candles and flashlights. Spending a week eating non-perishable food. Things like that. More inconvenience and discomfort than "imminent threat of death".
  #56  
Old 09-18-2018, 01:41 PM
bump bump is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Dallas, TX
Posts: 15,670
Quote:
Originally Posted by bordelond View Post
Hurricanes and tropical storms (especially the latter) are sort of like that. People not from down here often think first, second, and third of Andrew- and Katrina-level storms when they think of "hurricanes". That widespread devastation, buildings flattened, 100,000s without homes, etc. is the typical default hurricane. In fact, people who are raised down here have memories of going outside and playing in the winds (sheets of cardboard and roller skates!) during hurricanes and tropical storms. Of days off of school with no light but candles and flashlights. Spending a week eating non-perishable food. Things like that. More inconvenience and discomfort than "imminent threat of death".
True. My family (Houston area and La Marque/Texas City) pretty much didn't bat an eye at anything under Category 3. Category 3 storms got the windows boarded (the people closer to the coast had steel storm shutters already) and all the emergency supplies got checked and topped off. Cat 4 storm would make the coastal people probably clear out to our house in Houston, with Cat 5 storms making us all think of bailing if it was expected to hit the area dead-center.
  #57  
Old 09-19-2018, 10:17 AM
rbroome rbroome is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 3,133
Having been through this several times, it is actually a serious question.
First, it is an very personal question. Each person's situation is different. I know one family that was trapped on the MS coast by Katrina because she had to stay at work and help the disabled people in the shelter remain safe until it was too late for she and her family to evacuate. The shelter was secure-their apartment by the beach not nearly so much.... If she had left there would have been repercussions, not the least of which is that she would have lost her job and never gotten another in that field. Thems are the rules. Other people stay because they know their personal situation means that they will be safe. Almost always they are right. Then there are the people who won't or (more often) can't think ahead. They are the ones that need rescuing after the storm. It is a small percentage of the stay behinds, but they are the ones we need to be concerned about.

Hurricanes rarely cause significant wind damage beyond the photogenic stuff you see on TV. Flooding causes 90% of the damage. And most deaths are due to the reduced services after the storm and flooding has gone. So staying during the storm isn't that risky and there is a pretty much iron rule-emergency services don't go out during high winds. Flooding is different. Even down on the gulf coast we have swift water rescues after the storms. Usually rescue consists of a big army truck and a couple of flat boats, but someone always gets into that one spot where it is really dangerous.

We owe the people who stay behind the same as anyone else. No more, no less. If they get in trouble they deserve help just like anyone else. And just like anyone else, it the risk to the emergency services is too high, then no rescue can be attempted at that time.

The goal of all evacuations is to reduce the local population enough that the emergency repair services can move freely in a congested area and open things back up. Oh and to save a few lives. But that really isn't the point. When the roads are clogged with trees, it is a lot easier to clear them without traffic jams as well.
  #58  
Old 09-19-2018, 10:45 AM
Chicken Fingers Chicken Fingers is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 1,069
This article by Gwen Fulton is making the rounds, to give some perspective.
  #59  
Old 09-19-2018, 12:08 PM
Inigo Montoya's Avatar
Inigo Montoya Inigo Montoya is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: On the level, if inclined
Posts: 14,642
Give the warning. Those who can leave but don't get no assistance until everyone else is safe.
Those who don't want to go to a shelter because they feel security and resources will be inadequate--same deal. Stay and maybe die, or go and maybe get mugged and live to cry about it.

The time for ensuring the adequacy of shelters is NOT during the problem, but before. Vote, activate, grow the hell up and anticipate disasters and plan accordingly. Be willing to pay the taxes if that what it takes. Stop buying the bullshit that every tax-funded venture has to show black numbers in the ledger--sometimes we should spend money on quality of life, even when there is no payoff--and start showing suspicion toward those who insist "safe and adequate evacuation shelters" are a luxury we can't afford.
__________________
Y'all are just too damned serious. Lighten up.
  #60  
Old 09-19-2018, 01:03 PM
elbows elbows is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: London, Ontario
Posts: 13,737
First responders get to make the call. Just that simple. If it’s now too dangerous don’t do it, as first responders know well.

Asking first responders to ignore those they can quite easily assist, because they didn’t evacuate, is pretty silly in my mind.

I think you might find first responders are going to save the people they can get to, no matter what anyone says.
It’s kinda what they live to do.
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:10 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2018 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017